Canvassing anecdata from outer South West London (Sutton and Cheam).
Interesting area: used to be a marginal Lib Dem / Tory seat and has flipped multiple times, but since 2015 has had large Tory majorities and is a “safe” seat. The environs should be conducive to the Tories: outer London, affected by the ULEZ extension, a lot of self employed, similar in feel to places like Bexley and Sidcup that are rock solid Conservative.
I found quite a few Lib Dems and a number of tactical voters who would usually be Labour. 2 avowedly Tory households. Others who didn’t want to answer (I routinely record them as “not Lib Dem” or Conservative leaning). Nobody said they were voting Reform, but then they might well not say so to a Lib Dem canvasser.
I would say it’s 50:50 there, at least in the wards we canvassed. Certainly no sense of complete Tory collapse. By contrast next door Carshalton looks fairly comfortable for Bobby Dean.
Sutton and Cheam is the "odd one out" as far as Greater London is concerned, the only seat that has moved to the Tories recently compared to 1997/2001/2005.
The interesting point here is that @TimS was sent to canvas in Sutton and Cheam rather than another more marginal Lib Dem target.
The Lib Dems do appear to have widened their targeting.
Whether that is wise we shall see.
I also think it's interesting. It may reflect good morale = lots of activists and a good canvass has already been achieved in Wimbledon, Carshalton & Wallington and Esher & Walton. Local parties can probably handle the leaflet deliveries there. Many of the models have been showing it as a potential gain. and the LDs will have good historic records from council elections.
This is the way the Southgate era ends. Suitably pathetic
He should have been sacked after the euros of 2021. Letting him go on to the World Cup was an error. Keeping him on after THAT was criminally stupid
What a waste of great players
This tournament has been so poor that I'd be tempted to back Gareth Southgate in the next Conservative leader market. But even the Tory membership wouldn't be that mad. He's too woke for starters.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
How have US levels of debt and inequality changed ?
Gini coefficient suggests the US has been getting more and more unequal since 1992, with a fairly noticeable drop since 2021.
Looking at the various charts I've posted, the weirdness of the GFC seems to be that every western economy *other* than the US seems to have been poleaxed by 2008 and never recovered, except the US, where it is a blip.
I don't have an answer as to why this is the case.
100 Conservative seats puts the front line in places like Huntingdon, Romford and Poole.
150 Conservative seats puts it in Ribble Valley, Lowestoft, Gillingham.
200 Conservative seats puts it in Tunbridge Wells, Thurrock and Banbury.
As others have said... Romford doesn't feel like the front line in a general election.
Based on those seats then Con 150+ seems quite likely.
As you say, not much evidence of serious campaigning in Romford so definitely we're looking at well above 100 unless the parties haven't a clue either (possible).
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
How have US levels of debt and inequality changed ?
Gini coefficient suggests the US has been getting more and more unequal since 1992, with a fairly noticeable drop since 2021.
Looking at the various charts I've posted, the weirdness of the GFC seems to be that every western economy *other* than the US seems to have been poleaxed by 2008 and never recovered, except the US, where it is a blip.
I don't have an answer as to why this is the case.
That the US gets to run huge deficits must be a part. Well that and its huge natural resources, massive amount of land and historical good governance.
I was talking to my daughter, who is in Brentwood and Ongar. She has decided to vote LD as the most likely to beat the Tories, in admittedly a very safe seat. (Also she said she actually preferred them to Labour, which surprised me). She says that most of her friends are doing the same for the same reason, as that seems to be the local consensus. Surprisingly her mother, who used to be a Conservative, is also voting LD to get the Tories out.
And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!
England are playing like they're defending a narrow one goal lead witg five minutes to go. To be fair, this is how England have always played, right back to the Sven era, regardless of the game situation.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
There's no one clear answer. Two hints are firstly that the USA seems to recover quickly from periods of low growth, whereas when European countries start growing again, it's from a permanently lower baseline. Secondly, European countries have big companies but the USA has an extra top tier of mega-global-companies. That all being said, at high levels of GDP per capita, it's hard to know whether these small differences in growth rates of GDP matter, because we know the huge difference in levels of GDP doesn't matter. The USA is not two times better off than Europe, per capita; and maybe the GDP growth is in unnecessary medical diagnostics or prison places; all the labour productivity stats can tell you is that more money changes hands per worker.
Canvassing anecdata from outer South West London (Sutton and Cheam).
Interesting area: used to be a marginal Lib Dem / Tory seat and has flipped multiple times, but since 2015 has had large Tory majorities and is a “safe” seat. The environs should be conducive to the Tories: outer London, affected by the ULEZ extension, a lot of self employed, similar in feel to places like Bexley and Sidcup that are rock solid Conservative.
I found quite a few Lib Dems and a number of tactical voters who would usually be Labour. 2 avowedly Tory households. Others who didn’t want to answer (I routinely record them as “not Lib Dem” or Conservative leaning). Nobody said they were voting Reform, but then they might well not say so to a Lib Dem canvasser.
I would say it’s 50:50 there, at least in the wards we canvassed. Certainly no sense of complete Tory collapse. By contrast next door Carshalton looks fairly comfortable for Bobby Dean.
Sutton and Cheam is the "odd one out" as far as Greater London is concerned, the only seat that has moved to the Tories recently compared to 1997/2001/2005.
The interesting point here is that @TimS was sent to canvas in Sutton and Cheam rather than another more marginal Lib Dem target.
The Lib Dems do appear to have widened their targeting.
Whether that is wise we shall see.
I also think it's interesting. It may reflect good morale = lots of activists and a good canvass has already been achieved in Wimbledon, Carshalton & Wallington and Esher & Walton. Local parties can probably handle the leaflet deliveries there. Many of the models have been showing it as a potential gain. and the LDs will have good historic records from council elections.
There is a lot of positive feedback, the morale of this campaign compared to 2019 is day and night.
What a load of garbage, Pa Woolie wants Southgates head on a platter. And he confessed he didn't return his postal vote at all, its one vote for the recycling bin from the old man
RefUK are a bit useless at organising, because they don't have a candidate in Ed's seat in Doncaster North, which probably would have been one of their best targets from Labour had they had one.
Canvassing anecdata from outer South West London (Sutton and Cheam).
Interesting area: used to be a marginal Lib Dem / Tory seat and has flipped multiple times, but since 2015 has had large Tory majorities and is a “safe” seat. The environs should be conducive to the Tories: outer London, affected by the ULEZ extension, a lot of self employed, similar in feel to places like Bexley and Sidcup that are rock solid Conservative.
I found quite a few Lib Dems and a number of tactical voters who would usually be Labour. 2 avowedly Tory households. Others who didn’t want to answer (I routinely record them as “not Lib Dem” or Conservative leaning). Nobody said they were voting Reform, but then they might well not say so to a Lib Dem canvasser.
I would say it’s 50:50 there, at least in the wards we canvassed. Certainly no sense of complete Tory collapse. By contrast next door Carshalton looks fairly comfortable for Bobby Dean.
Sutton and Cheam is the "odd one out" as far as Greater London is concerned, the only seat that has moved to the Tories recently compared to 1997/2001/2005.
The interesting point here is that @TimS was sent to canvas in Sutton and Cheam rather than another more marginal Lib Dem target.
The Lib Dems do appear to have widened their targeting.
Whether that is wise we shall see.
I also think it's interesting. It may reflect good morale = lots of activists and a good canvass has already been achieved in Wimbledon, Carshalton & Wallington and Esher & Walton. Local parties can probably handle the leaflet deliveries there. Many of the models have been showing it as a potential gain. and the LDs will have good historic records from council elections.
There is a lot of positive feedback, the morale of this campaign compared to 2019 is day and night.
I asked about Wimbledon. Closer there than Carshalton because of the split vote with Labour. They were fairly confident Lib Dems are well ahead of Labour but tactical voting messages not landing as strongly as next door.
If you’re in despair about English football, don’t give in the the darkness. Remember that we took the knee more than anyone, so we have already won the World Cup of desperately embarrassing and pointless virtue signaling and we are well on the way to winning the intergalactic League of Irreducible Cringe
I was talking to my daughter, who is in Brentwood and Ongar. She has decided to vote LD as the most likely to beat the Tories, in admittedly a very safe seat. (Also she said she actually preferred them to Labour, which surprised me). She says that most of her friends are doing the same for the same reason, as that seems to be the local consensus. Surprisingly her mother, who used to be a Conservative, is also voting LD to get the Tories out.
And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!
Yes I am in that seat now, Labour were second last time in B and O so if she votes LD that is actually great news for Alex Burghart,
The LDs were a close third but the Labour voteshare there will be up more than the LD vote this year on current polls
I was talking to my daughter, who is in Brentwood and Ongar. She has decided to vote LD as the most likely to beat the Tories, in admittedly a very safe seat. (Also she said she actually preferred them to Labour, which surprised me). She says that most of her friends are doing the same for the same reason, as that seems to be the local consensus. Surprisingly her mother, who used to be a Conservative, is also voting LD to get the Tories out.
And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!
Yes I am in that seat now, Labour were second last time in B and O so if she votes LD that is actually great news for Alex Burghart
Canvassing anecdata from outer South West London (Sutton and Cheam).
Interesting area: used to be a marginal Lib Dem / Tory seat and has flipped multiple times, but since 2015 has had large Tory majorities and is a “safe” seat. The environs should be conducive to the Tories: outer London, affected by the ULEZ extension, a lot of self employed, similar in feel to places like Bexley and Sidcup that are rock solid Conservative.
I found quite a few Lib Dems and a number of tactical voters who would usually be Labour. 2 avowedly Tory households. Others who didn’t want to answer (I routinely record them as “not Lib Dem” or Conservative leaning). Nobody said they were voting Reform, but then they might well not say so to a Lib Dem canvasser.
I would say it’s 50:50 there, at least in the wards we canvassed. Certainly no sense of complete Tory collapse. By contrast next door Carshalton looks fairly comfortable for Bobby Dean.
Sutton and Cheam is the "odd one out" as far as Greater London is concerned, the only seat that has moved to the Tories recently compared to 1997/2001/2005.
The interesting point here is that @TimS was sent to canvas in Sutton and Cheam rather than another more marginal Lib Dem target.
The Lib Dems do appear to have widened their targeting.
Whether that is wise we shall see.
I also think it's interesting. It may reflect good morale = lots of activists and a good canvass has already been achieved in Wimbledon, Carshalton & Wallington and Esher & Walton. Local parties can probably handle the leaflet deliveries there. Many of the models have been showing it as a potential gain. and the LDs will have good historic records from council elections.
There is a lot of positive feedback, the morale of this campaign compared to 2019 is day and night.
I asked about Wimbledon. Closer there than Carshalton because of the split vote with Labour. They were fairly confident Lib Dems are well ahead of Labour but tactical voting messages not landing as strongly as next door.
Regardless of what happens on Thursday, and I hope it isn't a damp squib for the LDs, it has been one of the most fun elections I have been involved in. That might have something to do with the fact that this election is one in which I have had so much less responsibility for than previous elections, so I can enjoy it more, but generally I think it has been fun anyway. The Guildford LDs appear to be a fun crowd and there have been a lot of laughs along the way.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
I hated Gareth Southgate before it was fashionable. Just went to point that out. Even when everyone else was saying what a nice man he is I was pointing out that he is also a LOSER. Its written all over his stupidly narrow face in extra narrow letters
I hated Gareth Southgate before it was fashionable. Just went to point that out. Even when everyone else was saying what a nice man he is I was pointing out that he is also a LOSER. Its written all over his stupidly narrow face in extra narrow letters
'I hated Rishi Sunak before it was fashionable. Just went to point that out. Even when everyone else was saying what a nice man he is I was pointing out that he is also a LOSER. Its written all over his stupidly narrow face in extra narrow letters'
The other little bit of canvassing insight I can offer: the South Asian community in SW London doesn’t seem to be uniformly falling in behind Sunak as some have speculated. Almost half of my Lib Dem definites today were Asian, several working in the local hospital. But one of the Tory households was Asian too. Another was Russian.
I hated Gareth Southgate before it was fashionable. Just went to point that out. Even when everyone else was saying what a nice man he is I was pointing out that he is also a LOSER. Its written all over his stupidly narrow face in extra narrow letters
His choice of penalty takers in finals was certainly odd, and detrimental to those who got chosen.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
I was talking to my daughter, who is in Brentwood and Ongar. She has decided to vote LD as the most likely to beat the Tories, in admittedly a very safe seat. (Also she said she actually preferred them to Labour, which surprised me). She says that most of her friends are doing the same for the same reason, as that seems to be the local consensus. Surprisingly her mother, who used to be a Conservative, is also voting LD to get the Tories out.
And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!
Yes I am in that seat now, Labour were second last time in B and O so if she votes LD that is actually great news for Alex Burghart
B&O, as in Gerald Kaufman’s hi-fi dealer?
I once knew a gorgeous Danish lady with the Olufsen surname, took all my self control to not the make the B joke.
Can you believe there are people who think Bose are better than Bang & Olufsen.
Why are we constantly running down the clock when we’re 1-0 down ? I don’t understand football, but it does seem quite odd.
That's what England always do and have always done since about 2005. I can only imagine its because they're hating every minute and would just rather not be there.
About 30 minutes until the French exit poll. Both sides of the channel heading for seismic GE results, it feels.
Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1600 GMT in small towns and cities, with an 1800 GMT finish in the bigger cities, when the first exit polls for the night and seat projections for the decisive second round a week later are expected.
Participation was high, underlining how France's rumbling political crisis has energized the electorate. By 1500 GMT, turnout was nearly 60%, compared with 39.42% two years ago - the highest comparable turnout figures since the 1986 legislative vote, Ipsos France's research director Mathieu Gallard said.
France's electoral system can make it hard to estimate the precise distribution of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, and the final outcome will not be known until the end of the second round of voting on July 7.
No idea of the possible implications for a strong RN performance of very high turnout, but it's notable how this election seems to have energised voters in a manner that our own impending change of Government hasn't. Probably because the UK result is viewed as a foregone conclusion.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
There’s a lot in that. People focus too much on their healthcare. The rest is crap too. Nothing ever bloody works, and just when you think their capitalism would help, it turns out then are corporatists. I was amazed when a mate of there told me what cable tv and phone cost him, compared to what you get here when Sky and Virgin compete, just to give one example.
I hated Gareth Southgate before it was fashionable. Just went to point that out. Even when everyone else was saying what a nice man he is I was pointing out that he is also a LOSER. Its written all over his stupidly narrow face in extra narrow letters
'I hated Rishi Sunak before it was fashionable. Just went to point that out. Even when everyone else was saying what a nice man he is I was pointing out that he is also a LOSER. Its written all over his stupidly narrow face in extra narrow letters'
The tailoring is usually the giveaway. Sunak trousers, Southgate those dickhead waistcoats.
Sir Keirs black shirts do not give me a good feeling.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
There’s a lot in that. People focus too much on their healthcare. The rest is crap too. Nothing ever bloody works, and just when you think their capitalism would help, it turns out then are corporatists. I was amazed when a mate of there told me what cable tv and phone cost him, compared to what you get here when Sky and Virgin compete, just to give one example.
@rcs1000 might have more accurate information, but as I understand it, food prices are now eyewatering in their supermarkets and restaurants.
I hated Gareth Southgate before it was fashionable. Just went to point that out. Even when everyone else was saying what a nice man he is I was pointing out that he is also a LOSER. Its written all over his stupidly narrow face in extra narrow letters
Are you enjoying Kane’s ‘Respect’ captain’s armband? You can get one on eBay for £160.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
Are they still taking the knee (not watching the match and letting you lot keep me up to date for the same blood pressure reasons as not watching Question time).
I was talking to my daughter, who is in Brentwood and Ongar. She has decided to vote LD as the most likely to beat the Tories, in admittedly a very safe seat. (Also she said she actually preferred them to Labour, which surprised me). She says that most of her friends are doing the same for the same reason, as that seems to be the local consensus. Surprisingly her mother, who used to be a Conservative, is also voting LD to get the Tories out.
And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!
Yes I am in that seat now, Labour were second last time in B and O so if she votes LD that is actually great news for Alex Burghart,
The LDs were a close third but the Labour voteshare there will be up more than the LD vote this year on current polls
LDs are strong in Brentwood but the rest of the seat is very solid Tory, isn't it? The LD candidate is a local councillor and I think fairly well known (my ex has met him through his business and thinks he is a decent guy), and has stood a few times before. So maybe a seat where LD and labour switch round, but tbh I can't see that it matters there in the slightest.
I was talking to my daughter, who is in Brentwood and Ongar. She has decided to vote LD as the most likely to beat the Tories, in admittedly a very safe seat. (Also she said she actually preferred them to Labour, which surprised me). She says that most of her friends are doing the same for the same reason, as that seems to be the local consensus. Surprisingly her mother, who used to be a Conservative, is also voting LD to get the Tories out.
And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!
Yes I am in that seat now, Labour were second last time in B and O so if she votes LD that is actually great news for Alex Burghart,
The LDs were a close third but the Labour voteshare there will be up more than the LD vote this year on current polls
Used to be a big LibDem vote there. Ran, or came close to running, the council IIRC.
This is way the Southgate era ends, not with a bang but near Quimper
Thanks. I’m here til Tuesday. Try the oysters
Last time I was in St. Malo there was a plague of ladybirds. Absolutely millions of them. With every step you were having to brush ladybirds off yourself. It was quite unpleasant.
Are they still taking the knee (not watching the match and letting you lot keep me up to date for the same blood pressure reasons as not watching Question time).
I don't think so.
I'm currently half-watching a documentary about otters.
FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.
What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.
All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.
Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.
I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:
The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.
I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and perhaps this wedge of cheap debt ended up financing other parts of their economy, like housing (through Fannie and Freddie).
The difference is that the US debt levels simply don’t affect their currency exchange rate, in the same way as would happen with any other country, thanks to the US$’s status as the world reserve currency.
But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
Comments
https://www.statista.com/statistics/219643/gini-coefficient-for-us-individuals-families-and-households/
Looking at the various charts I've posted, the weirdness of the GFC seems to be that every western economy *other* than the US seems to have been poleaxed by 2008 and never recovered, except the US, where it is a blip.
I don't have an answer as to why this is the case.
Feck VAR.
As you say, not much evidence of serious campaigning in Romford so definitely we're looking at well above 100 unless the parties haven't a clue either (possible).
Footy is worthy only of vuvuzelas.
And yet all the Tactical Voting sites say vote Labour here, which makes sense based on recent results. But academic anyway, even if the Tories are reduced to 20 seats this will be one of the 20!
To be fair, this is how England have always played, right back to the Sven era, regardless of the game situation.
I don’t even like football.
The LDs were a close third but the Labour voteshare there will be up more than the LD vote this year on current polls
I don’t understand football, but it does seem quite odd.
Can you believe there are people who think Bose are better than Bang & Olufsen.
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Goal kick.
Participation was high, underlining how France's rumbling political crisis has energized the electorate. By 1500 GMT, turnout was nearly 60%, compared with 39.42% two years ago - the highest comparable turnout figures since the 1986 legislative vote, Ipsos France's research director Mathieu Gallard said.
France's electoral system can make it hard to estimate the precise distribution of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, and the final outcome will not be known until the end of the second round of voting on July 7.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-vote-election-that-could-put-far-right-government-2024-06-30/
No idea of the possible implications for a strong RN performance of very high turnout, but it's notable how this election seems to have energised voters in a manner that our own impending change of Government hasn't. Probably because the UK result is viewed as a foregone conclusion.
Sir Keirs black shirts do not give me a good feeling.
Fucking garbage merchants
This is way the Southgate era ends, not with a bang but near Quimper
Thanks. I’m here til Tuesday. Try the oysters
I'm currently half-watching a documentary about otters.
But we are seeing cracks there in recent weeks, with China and Saudi agreeing to start to price oil in RMB.
https://x.com/Get_effed/status/1807460557483561206