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If Peter Kellner is right then the back the Tories at 9s to win 150-199 seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
    There’s a lot in that. People focus too much on their healthcare. The rest is crap too. Nothing ever bloody works, and just when you think their capitalism would help, it turns out then are corporatists. I was amazed when a mate of there told me what cable tv and phone cost him, compared to what you get here when Sky and Virgin compete, just to give one example.
    @rcs1000 might have more accurate information, but as I understand it, food prices are now eyewatering in their supermarkets and restaurants.
    There's a fairly extensive set of Youtube "American reacts to" videos about food prices in the UK (and also Europe).

    There's another set about food quality.
    Then first thing that American politicians try and do, if fix a market. As PJ O’Rourke observed, when buying and selling is controlled by politicians, the first things bought and sold are… politicians.

    A favourite was when Tesla started selling directly. In a number of states, there are *laws* that only dealers can sell cars. The dealers complained that Tesla was refusing to share with them - they’d paid their political contributions and everything and now some bastard thinks he doesn’t have to give them their vig….
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Translation: France is in a mess


    🗳️ Projection @IpsosFrance de la composition de l'Assemblée après les élections législatives :

    ⚫️ RN et alliés : 230 à 280 sièges
    🔴NFP : 125 à 165 sièges
    🟠Ensemble : 70 à 100 sièges
    🔵LR et DVD : 41 à 61 sièges
    🟣DVG : 11 à 19 sièges
    ⚪️Autres : 22 à 30 sièges
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    pigeon said:

    French exit poll projections:

    National Rally: 34%
    Popular Front: 28.1%
    Ensemble: 20.3%
    Other parties: 15.2%

    Le Pen will go backwards in the second round. Very interesting result.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The political equivalent will be Rishi going to Wavertree Wednesday to speak in front of 30,000 screaming Sunakites
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    We might get the crazy situation where centre right parties in France ask for their supporters to vote for the left / far left, the socialists, communists and the greens next week in various parts of France.

    Could you imagine Rishi Sunak coming and say vote Jezza Corbyn and George Galloway.

    I don’t think they can. Have you seen some of the French far left positions? They are much crazier and probably nastier than le pen, and of course tainted with anti Semitism
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    Oops mannie Macron. That didn’t work did it?

    Hold your horses. His plan is for chaos then win when the parliament effs up
    He can’t call another election and this is his last term as prez
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Leon said:

    Translation: France is in a mess


    🗳️ Projection @IpsosFrance de la composition de l'Assemblée après les élections législatives :

    ⚫️ RN et alliés : 230 à 280 sièges
    🔴NFP : 125 à 165 sièges
    🟠Ensemble : 70 à 100 sièges
    🔵LR et DVD : 41 à 61 sièges
    🟣DVG : 11 à 19 sièges
    ⚪️Autres : 22 à 30 sièges

    Polling pretty good - RN perhaps very lightly worse but it is MOE stuff
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592
    edited June 30
    Le Pen says that nothing is won yet and they need to avoid France falling into the hands of the antisemitic left in the second round.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    For fun, some bright spark should simulate roughly what the UK election result would look like on the basis of the French run-off system.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    RN will only win a handful of seats outright tonight as you need 50,% to win. Next week in the runoffs the non RN supporters will rally as it were behind the other candidate so no chance of RN majority

    No that was a different France. The far left in France are insane
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,569
    According to the BBC, candidates may withdraw before the second round, and stategic withdrawals are likely to be part of the negotiations before the second round.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797

    The political equivalent will be Rishi going to Wavertree Wednesday to speak in front of 30,000 screaming Sunakites

    There's that many?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
    There’s a lot in that. People focus too much on their healthcare. The rest is crap too. Nothing ever bloody works, and just when you think their capitalism would help, it turns out then are corporatists. I was amazed when a mate of there told me what cable tv and phone cost him, compared to what you get here when Sky and Virgin compete, just to give one example.
    @rcs1000 might have more accurate information, but as I understand it, food prices are now eyewatering in their supermarkets and restaurants.
    There's a fairly extensive set of Youtube "American reacts to" videos about food prices in the UK (and also Europe).

    There's another set about food quality.
    Then first thing that American politicians try and do, if fix a market. As PJ O’Rourke observed, when buying and selling is controlled by politicians, the first things bought and sold are… politicians.

    A favourite was when Tesla started selling directly. In a number of states, there are *laws* that only dealers can sell cars. The dealers complained that Tesla was refusing to share with them - they’d paid their political contributions and everything and now some bastard thinks he doesn’t have to give them their vig….
    Without defending US auto dealers, are *laws* something you and/or Musk can simply ignore, as opposed to laws which you (if not Musk) would consider legit?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812
    Eabhal said:

    This could turn those marginals in Scotland towards the SNP.

    Rishi Sunak will form a minority government...

    Eh? What's this minority goverment stuff? Nothing to do with the footie?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    Quality photo of Rishi in this Tweet.

    It’s not over until it’s over.

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1807475083687997783
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    England haven't won this yet.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913

    Le Pen says that nothing is won yet and they need to avoid France falling into the hands of the antisemitic left in the second round.

    The antisemitic Left?
    What about your dad?
    https://www.ina.fr/ina-eclaire-actu/video/i09167776/jean-marie-le-pen-monsieur-durafour-crematoire-merci-de-cet-aveu
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    DavidL said:

    The political equivalent will be Rishi going to Wavertree Wednesday to speak in front of 30,000 screaming Sunakites

    There's that many?
    Well some of them obviously are Dowdenites doing double duty
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,889
    A very well hung Parliament. The French will never allow the far right (Le Pen) to win. They'll always hobble around the 40% mark. The majority don't like Fascists
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,209

    We might get the crazy situation where centre right parties in France ask for their supporters to vote for the left / far left, the socialists, communists and the greens next week in various parts of France.

    Could you imagine Rishi Sunak coming and say vote Jezza Corbyn and George Galloway.

    Depends on the alternative. Even if the choices are Devil and Deep Blue Sea, one still has to choose.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    carnforth said:

    According to the BBC, candidates may withdraw before the second round, and stategic withdrawals are likely to be part of the negotiations before the second round.

    I think it’s likely that RN will be the biggest party after the 2nd round. But an absolute majority is surely beyond their reach

    What they do then god knows. Can macron rally accept Bardella as premier?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    Apparently, somebody is whistling the Great Escape in Downing Street....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    Leon said:

    Translation: France is in a mess


    🗳️ Projection @IpsosFrance de la composition de l'Assemblée après les élections législatives :

    ⚫️ RN et alliés : 230 à 280 sièges
    🔴NFP : 125 à 165 sièges
    🟠Ensemble : 70 à 100 sièges
    🔵LR et DVD : 41 à 61 sièges
    🟣DVG : 11 à 19 sièges
    ⚪️Autres : 22 à 30 sièges

    Polling pretty good - RN perhaps very lightly worse but it is MOE stuff
    Yes, an incredibly good result for the pollsters. Almost bang on. RN a tiny bit below, Ens a bit above, left wing accurate.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,292
    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    This 15 hours each way in extra time seems a tad excessive.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    Can someone kindly remind me of the competition questions. I'm ready to go full on mystic meg!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Roger said:

    A very well hung Parliament. The French will never allow the far right (Le Pen) to win. They'll always hobble around the 40% mark. The majority don't like Fascists

    Cue my now traditional browsing to see what was voted for in the commune of St Vincent des Pres, 71250. In the Euros Macron’s lot won in our ultra woke Burgundian village but only just. RN were 4th.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,642

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    Roger said:

    A very well hung Parliament. The French will never allow the far right (Le Pen) to win. They'll always hobble around the 40% mark. The majority don't like Fascists

    The French are always claiming things like that. And their women are the sexiest as well. Its all faff.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,121
    James_M said:

    Can someone kindly remind me of the competition questions. I'm ready to go full on mystic meg!

    If you a real Mystic Meg, you don't need the questions !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited June 30
    Roger said:

    A very well hung Parliament. The French will never allow the far right (Le Pen) to win. They'll always hobble around the 40% mark. The majority don't like Fascists


    40% is still a fair chunk of the electorate though…. Starmer might not even reach that here on Thursday. And Le Pen is polling ahead in the next Presidential.

    France looks very polarised.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,949
    Thinking sensibly Southgate obviously has confidence that this group of players can always find a goal

    That said, it can't be right that Pickford has had more possession than any other single England player.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    mostly jealousy having never had one of their own to lose...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Leon said:

    Translation: France is in a mess


    🗳️ Projection @IpsosFrance de la composition de l'Assemblée après les élections législatives :

    ⚫️ RN et alliés : 230 à 280 sièges
    🔴NFP : 125 à 165 sièges
    🟠Ensemble : 70 à 100 sièges
    🔵LR et DVD : 41 à 61 sièges
    🟣DVG : 11 à 19 sièges
    ⚪️Autres : 22 à 30 sièges

    Good luck getting a majority out of that kind of result, should it transpire next week, which locks out Le Pen.

    OTOH Le Pen + centre-right = Maj. Any chance at all that the latter might go for it?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Leon said:

    Translation: France is in a mess


    🗳️ Projection @IpsosFrance de la composition de l'Assemblée après les élections législatives :

    ⚫️ RN et alliés : 230 à 280 sièges
    🔴NFP : 125 à 165 sièges
    🟠Ensemble : 70 à 100 sièges
    🔵LR et DVD : 41 à 61 sièges
    🟣DVG : 11 à 19 sièges
    ⚪️Autres : 22 à 30 sièges

    Polling pretty good - RN perhaps very lightly worse but it is MOE stuff
    BFM/Elabe has different figures, 260-310 for RN, others all worse off. So possibility of a majority.

    Melenchon has just asked all 3rd place NFPs to withdraw, if Macron does the same that could help significantly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    Some of us sure. Not this one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    DavidL said:

    This 15 hours each way in extra time seems a tad excessive.

    Bring back the ‘golden goal’.

    (Various police forces hated that concept, which is why it was dropped, the match ending at a totally random time).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,642
    edited June 30

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    The inevitable wall-to-wall Great Escape memes might be enough
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    With Kane and Bellingham off they had better hope this doesn't go to penalties.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212

    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
    There’s a lot in that. People focus too much on their healthcare. The rest is crap too. Nothing ever bloody works, and just when you think their capitalism would help, it turns out then are corporatists. I was amazed when a mate of there told me what cable tv and phone cost him, compared to what you get here when Sky and Virgin compete, just to give one example.
    @rcs1000 might have more accurate information, but as I understand it, food prices are now eyewatering in their supermarkets and restaurants.
    There's a fairly extensive set of Youtube "American reacts to" videos about food prices in the UK (and also Europe).

    There's another set about food quality.
    Then first thing that American politicians try and do, if fix a market. As PJ O’Rourke observed, when buying and selling is controlled by politicians, the first things bought and sold are… politicians.

    A favourite was when Tesla started selling directly. In a number of states, there are *laws* that only dealers can sell cars. The dealers complained that Tesla was refusing to share with them - they’d paid their political contributions and everything and now some bastard thinks he doesn’t have to give them their vig….
    Without defending US auto dealers, are *laws* something you and/or Musk can simply ignore, as opposed to laws which you (if not Musk) would consider legit?
    Tesla were selling direct - which was legal in many states. This started the attacks by the dealers. In addition, in the states where they judged that online sales broke the dealer laws, Tesla launched campaigns to overturn them.

    Tesla didn’t ignore the laws - they couldn’t.

    The fascinating bit was some of the justifications by the dealers. In their minds, they were owed a percentage of the sales price of cars. Like Queen Liz giving the Earl of Essex a monopoly (tax) on the import of sweet wine.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,889
    Strange headline from the Telegraph. Could be accurate but quite misleading. Since they threw their hand in with Boris they've lost it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/labour-poll-general-election-conservative/
  • Why is Starmer also going to bring in Sunaks Crazy plan for more business for drug dealers by banning anyone born after 2009 from buying cigs?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    The inevitable wall-to-wall Great Escape memes might be enough
    David McCallum was Scottish.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,618

    Apparently, somebody is whistling the Great Escape in Downing Street....

    Didn't they all wind up being shot? (Nearly all anyway).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    No, but it's nice having something else on the news for the next 24 years.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,513

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    The inevitable wall-to-wall Great Escape memes might be enough
    David McCallum was Scottish.
    As was Gordon Jackson.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    Leon said:

    Translation: France is in a mess


    🗳️ Projection @IpsosFrance de la composition de l'Assemblée après les élections législatives :

    ⚫️ RN et alliés : 230 à 280 sièges
    🔴NFP : 125 à 165 sièges
    🟠Ensemble : 70 à 100 sièges
    🔵LR et DVD : 41 à 61 sièges
    🟣DVG : 11 à 19 sièges
    ⚪️Autres : 22 à 30 sièges

    I think we can be confident that Paris is going to be besieged.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    Some of this commentary is silly.

    Republicans won’t be voting Left to keep out RN in round 2. And centrists will be breaking 50/50 or abstaining.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Foxy said:

    Apparently, somebody is whistling the Great Escape in Downing Street....

    Didn't they all wind up being shot? (Nearly all anyway).
    Yep, except Steve McQueen, James Garner and the 3 who escaped
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937

    Why is Starmer also going to bring in Sunaks Crazy plan for more business for drug dealers by banning anyone born after 2009 from buying cigs?

    Labour's natural instinct is to regulate, tax, or ban. In this respect, the present Conservatives haven't been much better.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,047

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    The inevitable wall-to-wall Great Escape memes might be enough
    David McCallum was Scottish.
    No, he was Russian!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592
    Sean_F said:

    Some of this commentary is silly.

    Republicans won’t be voting Left to keep out RN in round 2. And centrists will be breaking 50/50 or abstaining.

    People are clinging on to the pattern of the RN going backwards in the second round when they were a distant third or fourth overall so it was their vote getting squeezed, but that doesn't apply when they're starting from first place. The are certainly going to win more votes in the second round.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619

    NEW THREAD

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,889
    edited June 30
    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    A very well hung Parliament. The French will never allow the far right (Le Pen) to win. They'll always hobble around the 40% mark. The majority don't like Fascists

    Cue my now traditional browsing to see what was voted for in the commune of St Vincent des Pres, 71250. In the Euros Macron’s lot won in our ultra woke Burgundian village but only just. RN were 4th.
    France are a country of protest. And they can protest in the happy knowledge that the Le Pens will never actually rule.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    Yet, US public services are worse than those of most rich world countries. For them, austerity is permanent.
    There’s a lot in that. People focus too much on their healthcare. The rest is crap too. Nothing ever bloody works, and just when you think their capitalism would help, it turns out then are corporatists. I was amazed when a mate of there told me what cable tv and phone cost him, compared to what you get here when Sky and Virgin compete, just to give one example.
    @rcs1000 might have more accurate information, but as I understand it, food prices are now eyewatering in their supermarkets and restaurants.
    There's a fairly extensive set of Youtube "American reacts to" videos about food prices in the UK (and also Europe).

    There's another set about food quality.
    Then first thing that American politicians try and do, if fix a market. As PJ O’Rourke observed, when buying and selling is controlled by politicians, the first things bought and sold are… politicians.

    A favourite was when Tesla started selling directly. In a number of states, there are *laws* that only dealers can sell cars. The dealers complained that Tesla was refusing to share with them - they’d paid their political contributions and everything and now some bastard thinks he doesn’t have to give them their vig….
    Without defending US auto dealers, are *laws* something you and/or Musk can simply ignore, as opposed to laws which you (if not Musk) would consider legit?
    Tesla were selling direct - which was legal in many states. This started the attacks by the dealers. In addition, in the states where they judged that online sales broke the dealer laws, Tesla launched campaigns to overturn them.

    Tesla didn’t ignore the laws - they couldn’t.

    The fascinating bit was some of the justifications by the dealers. In their minds, they were owed a percentage of the sales price of cars. Like Queen Liz giving the Earl of Essex a monopoly (tax) on the import of sweet wine.
    Then why the editorial comment re: "laws"?

    Would note that Elon Musk is NOT adverse NOR shy, about lobbying politicos to get what he wants.

    Also note that the heyday of USA corporate lobbying, influence peddling & outright bribery, was during the post-Civil War "Gilded Age" when business regulation at federal AND state level was essentially non-existent. What WAS on offer, where tax breaks, land grants and other goodies.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,513

    Foxy said:

    Apparently, somebody is whistling the Great Escape in Downing Street....

    Didn't they all wind up being shot? (Nearly all anyway).
    Yep, except Steve McQueen, James Garner and the 3 who escaped
    67 escaped. 3 made it all the way and 50 were shot. 14 lucky ones ended up back behind the wire.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    @MattW I can see votes cast...by someone...in a booth. I predict someone will win to become Prime Minister...a man, I see a man. I am getting a very strong signal, it may be a Sky dish or perhaps a power tool...ooooo
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited June 30
    Projected on turnout numbers.
    65-85 elected on first round.
    150-170 head-to-heads in second round.
    285-315 three-way contests.

    Projected to qualify.

    RN 390-430
    NFP 370-410
    Ensemble 290-330
    LR/DVD 70-90.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,240
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Translation: France is in a mess


    🗳️ Projection @IpsosFrance de la composition de l'Assemblée après les élections législatives :

    ⚫️ RN et alliés : 230 à 280 sièges
    🔴NFP : 125 à 165 sièges
    🟠Ensemble : 70 à 100 sièges
    🔵LR et DVD : 41 à 61 sièges
    🟣DVG : 11 à 19 sièges
    ⚪️Autres : 22 à 30 sièges

    Good luck getting a majority out of that kind of result, should it transpire next week, which locks out Le Pen.

    OTOH Le Pen + centre-right = Maj. Any chance at all that the latter might go for it?
    Apparently RN have endorsed a number of LR candidates, but with LR getting low numbers it might not give them very many
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Foxy said:

    Apparently, somebody is whistling the Great Escape in Downing Street....

    Didn't they all wind up being shot? (Nearly all anyway).
    Yep, except Steve McQueen, James Garner and the 3 who escaped
    67 escaped. 3 made it all the way and 50 were shot. 14 lucky ones ended up back behind the wire.
    Yes that's right. In the film It was the two tunnel guys (Bronson and his mate) and the Aussie played by James Coburn who got away
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    If I understand this correctly the next French election will be determined by Macron supporters on whether they detest the Left more than the Hard Right:


  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    kyf_100 said:

    Why is Starmer also going to bring in Sunaks Crazy plan for more business for drug dealers by banning anyone born after 2009 from buying cigs?

    Labour's natural instinct is to regulate, tax, or ban. In this respect, the present Conservatives haven't been much better.
    I don't envy politicians of any stripe confronted with the problem of what to do about the stubborn hardcore of smokers we still have in this country. Tobacco is a wretched habit that does nobody any good and still places a huge burden on the tottering healthcare system.

    I suppose it's a tightrope walk, trying to disincentivize the habit without ending up creating another illegal drug racket for the police to try to cope with. Jacking up the tax on cigarettes even further, to try to price society out of buying them one segment at a time, is probably the least worst option.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937
    pigeon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Why is Starmer also going to bring in Sunaks Crazy plan for more business for drug dealers by banning anyone born after 2009 from buying cigs?

    Labour's natural instinct is to regulate, tax, or ban. In this respect, the present Conservatives haven't been much better.
    I don't envy politicians of any stripe confronted with the problem of what to do about the stubborn hardcore of smokers we still have in this country. Tobacco is a wretched habit that does nobody any good and still places a huge burden on the tottering healthcare system.

    I suppose it's a tightrope walk, trying to disincentivize the habit without ending up creating another illegal drug racket for the police to try to cope with. Jacking up the tax on cigarettes even further, to try to price society out of buying them one segment at a time, is probably the least worst option.
    I'm a libertarian, so if people want to smoke, as far as I'm concerned that's their business - same as if they want to take heroin, do coke, get a tattoo, nipple piercing, whatever - their body, their choice.

    I also don't believe the state should pay for the consequences of it.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Will SLAB blame Bellingham if they underperform in the Central Belt?

    I've already made that excuse!

    I suddenly have a funny feeling about all this
    Are the Scots such needledicks that they get upset by England winning a knockout match?
    The inevitable wall-to-wall Great Escape memes might be enough
    David McCallum was Scottish.
    So was Shooey McPhee (Angus Lennie)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,351
    I have finally tracked down the article that idiot Hitchins was quoting about ‘Russia being provoked.’ It was not easy because not only was what he quoted rather inaccurate but it was so ripped out of context anyway as to actually reverse the meaning of what was said.

    Here are Kagan’s very precise words:

    Although it is obscene to blame the United States for Putin’s inhumane attack on Ukraine, to insist that the invasion was entirely unprovoked is misleading. Just as Pearl Harbor was the consequence of U.S. efforts to blunt Japanese expansion on the Asian mainland, and just as the 9/11 attacks were partly a response to the United States’ dominant presence in the Middle East after the first Gulf War, so Russian decisions have been a response to the expanding post–Cold War hegemony of the United States and its allies in Europe. Putin alone is to blame for his actions, but the invasion of Ukraine is taking place in a historical and geopolitical context in which the United States has played and still plays the principal role, and Americans must grapple with this fact

    The thrust of the article is that Putin was provoked by Purim’s inability to deal with how much the Russians were hated in their traditional sphere of influence, as demonstrated by the collapse of the Yanukovych government and the desperation of Eastern European states to join NATO as a guarantee against a relapse. He argues that the key provocation was how the United States’ response was clumsy and chaotic leading Russia and now China to think they could keep getting away with their crimes.

    This was of course seized on by Kremlin propagandists and anti-American twits like Hitchins who claimed Kagan said the US provoked the invasion of Ukraine - when in fact he was saying the exact opposite.

    So basically - Hitchins either lied, or is so stupid he should not be allowed near a keyboard. Or both, of course.

    Full article here (free with registration):

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-04-06/russia-ukraine-war-price-hegemony
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    edited June 30

    kyf_100 said:

    biggles said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:
    FT has always had a left wing bias, and I say that as a subscriber.

    What's really fascinating in the article that tweet links to is the clickable chart of GDP, GDP per head, average earnings, and productivity.

    All of which stalled in 2008 in the GFC, under Labour's watch, and have flatlined ever since.

    Of course, the Conservatives have had 14 years to do better, but those charts suggest that the structural problems with the economy stem from a global crisis, rather than Conservative mismanagement. It's notable that there's no Brexit blip on those charts, though there is a COVID one. Again, suggesting factors outside of a national government's control.

    I'd love to see five years of Labour government where GDP, GDP per head, earnings and productivity rise. I fear, however, that something in the economic system as we know it broke in 2008, and Labour won't fix it either.
    I think there’s something wrong in the productivity figures for us, and other similar nations that don’t make widgets. But undeniably there’s a growth issue nonetheless.
    Noteworthy that US productivity hasn't flatlined since the GFC:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB

    Nor GDP / GDP per capita;

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US

    However it has flatined across the whole of the EU:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EU

    The data suggests that Europe, and I include the UK in that, has failed to recover from the 2008 GFC, while the data suggests the US has.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm not sure why that's the case, I can only point to the figures and suggest it's a problem to which the Conservative party have no answers, but isn't a problem actually caused by the Conservatives.
    UK & Europe: austerity. USA: Uncle Sam: spraying money about. Turns out Keynes was right.
    We haven't had austerity.

    The US has been busily using its global muscle to agglomerate wealth to itself. Its campaign to get other countries to raise their Corporation Tax is one example - you'll remember Biden snarling about Truss's mini-budget where she planned to reverse the planned increase. It has also intervened in UK energy projects like the coking coalmine. We also know it has been influential in Western sanctions against Russian oil and gas, advantaging its own oil industry.

    That's what you get to do when you're the world's most powerful country. You're the biggest piranha in the tank and occasionally you take a chunk out of those less fortunate. The EU, and to a greater extent the UK, are deeply in the US thrall, and we should expect these disparities in economic performance until we find a way out of it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061

    Why is Starmer also going to bring in Sunaks Crazy plan for more business for drug dealers by banning anyone born after 2009 from buying cigs?

    Because, like Sunak, he's an (upper-)middle-class Hampstead twat who thinks politics is about indulging the shibboleths of that wastrel group instead of trying to get 67 million people to share the same space without killing each other. Fuck him and his authoritarianism.
This discussion has been closed.