What did you expect. This is the paper that nixed Peter Hitchens column for the month before one general election when he was in his "destroy the Tories" phase.
He will get his wish......just a bit late
He is now furiously telling people to Vote Tory because however bad they are, Starmer is a Pabloist Trot who will wreck the place good and proper.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.
The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward
What did you expect. This is the paper that nixed Peter Hitchens column for the month before one general election when he was in his "destroy the Tories" phase.
He will get his wish......just a bit late
He is now furiously telling people to Vote Tory because however bad they are, Starmer is a Pabloist Trot who will wreck the place good and proper.
Yeah. He is never happy. He loves to be miserable.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Plenty of examples from the last century however. And every one fucking awful.
Talking of old ships I stumbled across a great doc on iPlayer about the Vasa. Well worth watching, the comparisons and contrasts with the Mary Rose are interesting in terms of what was preserved or not because of the different waters they were in (they don’t compare it just interesting if you know a little about the MR).
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
Well the working class and middle class Tories also now hate each other's guts, so there is that.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
It’s interesting, isn’t it. I don’t hold a candle for REF and Farage. But there is a whiff of death about the Tory Party, beyond the usual clapped out government vibes. I do think Farage has hit on something when he says the brand is done: I have thought this for some time.
The right will reorganise if the Tories fall. But I HOPE that it reorganises under someone other than Farage.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
He’s great with Balls as a double act
All it does for me is highlight how desperately annoying and up his own rear I find Osborne. I tried to listen to their podcast and stopped ten minutes in after shouting "ITS YOUR FUCKING FAULT YOU WERE CHANCELLOR FOR SIX FUCKING YEARS". Fortunately the lab door was closed and no one heard me.
Rory Stewart is far far worse with his effete pathetic tweets expressing astonishment at 2.4m migrants in 3 years. Like wow how did that happen
He’s a fucking Tory politician whose job is analysing politics and economics for a podcast. Its like Gareth Southgate expressing astonishment that France has some good players
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
We go back a long time on this site Sean (me and thee), and I think your neck is well worth paying attention to.
And it may well be right. As a long standing poll watcher, in previous GE's, although the polls have been horribly wrong sometimes, 1992 springs to mind. 2017 poor. Not great in 2015. But for all these it was the Labour share that wasn't great. The polls were pretty accurate for the Tories. It wasn't so much the shy Tory voter, it was the flakey Labour voter, or the Corbyn surge that wasn't captured.
Pedigree post, Tyson.
Must say this is starting to have a whiff of 1997 about it. Punters could see what was happening then but just didn't believe it.
Not quite sure I can believe what I am seeing myself.
Friends with military connections tell me that the D-Day condemnation of R.S is pretty universal within our armed forces, Some are saying the none of them will vote for R.S.
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.
The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
Agreed. It's broadly two things:
1) What you said.
2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
So likely retired working class getting quite old, or people who have inherited or purchased from such. Maybe empty nesters. I make it just a couple of hundred metres from Lee Anderson's family roots, but I *may* be wrong on that.
We have a lot of that, which gives me hope in my war on anti-wheelchair barriers; some of the people who have been happy to have there will soon have mobility scooters.
3 bed 1970s detached bungalows probably ~180-200k at present.
Not the best area to be - that gets more away from the centre as you go down the hill, and it's a long walk up a fairly formidable hill to amenities in the village high street, or a bus or car journey. But a peaceful cul-de-sac.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
"Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage." ?
Sounds like the whiteboard at BBC News HQ when planning their running order.
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
1 Downing Street parties 2 Sleaze 3 Truss playing wild with the economy 4 More sleaze 5 Too many immigrants 6 House prices too high for some 7 House prices too low for some 8 Yet more sleaze 9 Not enough government spending for some 10 Taxes too high for some 11 Even more sleaze 12 Time for a change
The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
Although I’d have thought Castle Point or Thurrock would be ahead in the queue.
Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.
Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city
Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
You should go to the Staffordshire museum in Hanley and see the Staffordshire hoard from Brownhills. Some noom value to be had. And Lancaster is a fab place. And the Yorkshire Dales are worldbeating. I suspect the most significant place I’ve never been in the UK would be somewhere like Canterbury or Chichester.
As for Hartlepool, the Nelson-era frigate Trincomalee is quite something, albeit in a sort of film set pretend dockland. Though the local museum next door is good. The less obvious point is Heugh Point gun battery under the lighthouse - only somewhat restored, but recalling the bombardment by the Germans in 1914. The view from it is grand, across the Tees estuary to the bulge of Yorkshire, and to the north too.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
I am working on the assumption that the misspelling of gilt edged is deliberate. It is inspired.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
We go back a long time on this site Sean (me and thee), and I think your neck is well worth paying attention to.
And it may well be right. As a long standing poll watcher, in previous GE's, although the polls have been horribly wrong sometimes, 1992 springs to mind. 2017 poor. Not great in 2015. But for all these it was the Labour share that wasn't great. The polls were pretty accurate for the Tories. It wasn't so much the shy Tory voter, it was the flakey Labour voter, or the Corbyn surge that wasn't captured.
Pedigree post, Tyson.
Must say this is starting to have a whiff of 1997 about it. Punters could see what was happening then but just didn't believe it.
Not quite sure I can believe what I am seeing myself.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward
A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.
Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
I've never been to Northern Ireland. Or the Republic, for that matter.
Cities I have been to but never left the station: Dundee Perth Stirling Hereford Plymouth Truro Portsmouth Southampton Peterborough Preston
I've only travelled through Exeter and Winchester, and never baled.
Never been to or through Canterbury.
I’m overqualified in the Canterbury department.
I’ve been to both jurisdictions in Ireland a few times but the smiling Anglophobia grates after a while. I let the (American) wife do the talking when we do.
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.
The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
Agreed. It's broadly two things:
1) What you said.
2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
Not helped, I suspect, by ever growing sense of entitlement.
No matter how well many people do they think they're entitled to be better off and that its the government's job to make it so.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
The offer of punishing one's enemies is powerful, and we will make better excuses to attain it than even the most elaborate SKS defence of Corbyn.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Age has caught up with me; bed and Radio 4 joint with R5, slower, soporific, Nick Robinson et al, possible Jim Naughtie, doze in the boring hours, no attempt to be first to know. No saloon cowboy graphics. no celeb drunks on Thames boats. And, as with all radio, better pictures.
I bumped into three fellow Lib Dems from my own local party while campaigning today in Mid Dunbartonshire. I have "been volunteered" to attend my local count on election night.
My wife has gone to our holiday home, while I stay at home campaigning. It is in Suffolk Coastal. Lots of LD posters and only delivery is from the LDs and it is not the Royal Mail free delivery as we are not on the electoral register. Bit weird as Coffey has a 20,000 majority and that is over Lab not the LDs
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward
A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.
Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
Seriously this debate is pointless. All this hard right stuff is coming to every western country. It will either be via actual hard right parties (Italy France?) or via left wing parties desperately adopting right wing policies (Denmark)
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Err, 42 to 27 is more like 3:2 (42 to 28 would be exactly 3:2).
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.
The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
Agreed. It's broadly two things:
1) What you said.
2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
Plus Macron's party about to lose heavily to Le Pen, even now Biden only level pegging with Trump and Australian Labor now also near tied with the Coalition. The SPD miles behind the CDU in Germany. Even Modi lost his majority in India as did the ANC in SA.
Only really Meloni of significant democratically elected leaders is still clearly ahead in the polls
"He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
Is it what happens if you take about half the Conservative share and give it to Reform in places where Lib and Lab start too far behind?
(The H+U projection is Ref 27.6 Lab 26.7 Con 25.8, compared with notionals of Con 65.4 Lab 22.9 no Ref obviously in 2019. Seems like an awfully small Labour advance.)
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
When I was 15 in 1989 a friend introduced me to Morrissey and The Smiths. Mozza had an album out which contained a song called “Bengali in Platforms” with the refrain “life is hard enough when you belong here”. At the age of 15 I posited “that’s a bit racist”. “ no, it’s IRONIC” replied my friend “He hates Thatcher so he can’t be resist”
Evidence of the racist opinions of Stephen Patrick Morrissey continued to grow over the next 30 years but nothing, nothing, would shake my friends devotion until quite recently when he said “Yeah, maybe Johnny Marr was the talented one after all”
It’s the same with Farage and Trump. Fans project what they want onto them. The faith will not be broken.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Italy and Sweden but only with the support of the main centre right party too
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
He’s great with Balls as a double act
He is. Have you seen the ITV 2017 coverage? I think it's still on YouTube. The first five minutes after the exit poll are just Osborne laughing hysterically at the result, before he manges some cock and bull story about how he'd always respected May and worked very well with her.... before laughing for another five minutes.
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward
A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.
Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
Seriously this debate is pointless. All this hard right stuff is coming to every western country. It will either be via actual hard right parties (Italy France?) or via left wing parties desperately adopting right wing policies (Denmark)
I’m simply right and you are wrong
I tire of pointing this out so it will be the last time.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Age has caught up with me; bed and Radio 4 joint with R5, slower, soporific, Nick Robinson et al, possible Jim Naughtie, doze in the boring hours, no attempt to be first to know. No saloon cowboy graphics. no celeb drunks on Thames boats. And, as with all radio, better pictures.
I bumped into three fellow Lib Dems from my own local party while campaigning today in Mid Dunbartonshire. I have "been volunteered" to attend my local count on election night.
Why is that seat so much better for the LDs than all those around?
Be careful about not attaching too much weight to one day.
BBC is very careful re time allocation - and they'll be measuring it over the whole campaign. If Farage has had a lot of exposure yesterday, today (and maybe tomorrow) it's almost certian he'll then get very little in the final 10 days.
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
Belfast, Sale, Derry.
You go most everywhere as a twitcher. But still never NI.
Northern Ireland is lovely - despite its reputation and despite some depressing weather and towns. Belfast is fascinating with a spectacular location and the coast and countryside are lush
Agreed and make sure you go on a walking political tour.
Assembled at Divis Tower and met first tour guide who was an IRA maze veteran. Hour and a half with him walking around the Falls Road area and then handed over to a UVF guy at one of the peace gates (think checkpoint charlie with a bigger wall) for an hour and a half on the Shankhill.
Saw sights you think you will never see in the UK like houses where the whole rear of the house and its garden was caged in a steele grille to stop molotov cocktails coming over the wall.
IRA guy, now a republican journalist was quite nuanced. UVF just ranted about terrorists which got a bit tedious. IRA guy was clearly something of a local hero as numerous vehicles tooted their horn as they passed him.
One interesting thing is that on the Shankhill side, the wall was covered in Graffitti, on the Falls side, none, but a few murals. The Shankhill side seemed far more chavvy.
Most tourists were European. We were the only English. Which was fun. Dont make it too obvious I am English on one side, don't make it too obvious I'm a Taig (Catholic) on the other.
Best 3 hours in many years though.
To delve back up this thread: The largest British city to which I have never been is Norwich. I think I've been to all Leon's lengthy lost except Derry. Whitby, Rotherham, Lancaster, Stoke, the Yorkshire Dales (hell, I was there today - how can you not have been to England's second best National Park?) Sale isn't as big as it suddenly appears. For a long time the population was about 60000 odd - then a few years back it suddenly leapt to 140000 odd. Delving into this, it appears Wythenshawe has suddenly and arbitrarily been lumped in with Sale. I can see no reason for this.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Did you do maths at school HY?
1983 42.4% to 27.6% = 1.54 to 1 1931 55.0% to 30.6% = 1.79 to 1
Today's polls: Opinium 40% to 20% = 2.0 to 1 Savanta 42% to 19% = 2.21 to 1
Be careful about not attaching too much weight to one day.
BBC is very careful re time allocation over the whole campaign. If Farage has had a lot of eposure yesterday, today (and maybe tomorrow) it's almost certian he'll then get very little in the final 10 days.
Depends what other grenades he can lob that get the great and good bouncing up and down with self righteous outrage.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Err, 42 to 27 is more like 3:2 (42 to 28 would be exactly 3:2).
It is about as close to 2:1 as the 55% Conservatives 30% Labour was in 1931
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
My wife has gone to our holiday home, while I stay at home campaigning. It is in Suffolk Coastal. Lots of LD posters and only delivery is from the LDs and it is not the Royal Mail free delivery as we are not on the electoral register. Bit weird as Coffey has a 20,000 majority and that is over Lab not the LDs
In that case may help her stay on as Labour are her main challengers so anti Tory voters going LD helps her
"He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
Yeah, we get that you suckle at the teet of Putin.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward
A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.
Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
I don't think the scandinavia comparison works that well for Britain. In some ways these countries are comparable to Britain 60 years ago with where they are at with immigration and creating a multicultural society, the influx is so recent, much of it has happened in the last 10 years. In Finland there is an issue where immigrants are highly concentrated in specific areas that get a bad reputation, not as bad perhaps as Sweden.
One thing that does seem to have been inherited from Britain is a hypersensitivity about race and causing offence. My son played football against a team from an immigrant ghetto in the childrens league which is supposedly about 'fair play'. At the end the kids from the immigrant team were rude to my sons team, even after they won, totally against the spirit of the league. According to our coach, this happens all the time, but no one complains because of 'racism'.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Err, 42 to 27 is more like 3:2 (42 to 28 would be exactly 3:2).
It is about as close to 2:1 as the 55% Conservatives 30% Labour was in 1931
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
How much influence have any of these debates had?
As was astutely observed at the beginning, campaigns generally trundle along pretty much unaffected by anything that takes place within them. Which does make Mrs May’s sterling performance stand out all the more.
"He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
Yeah, we get that you suckle at the teet of Putin.
The rest of the country does not.
Shoot the messenger if you want, it's not going to change anything comrade.
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.
The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
Agreed. It's broadly two things:
1) What you said.
2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
Plus Macron's party about to lose heavily to Le Pen, even now Biden only level pegging with Trump and Australian Labor now also near tied with the Coalition. The SPD miles behind the CDU in Germany. Even Modi lost his majority in India as did the ANC in SA.
Only really Meloni of significant democratically elected leaders is still clearly ahead in the polls
Being a bit nasty to get your way is understandable but not admirable. It’s uncomfortable but you can do it for good reason.
But who really wants to identify with an insular, even toxic country? The rivers say it all.
The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
Although I’d have thought Castle Point or Thurrock would be ahead in the queue.
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Prime Minister can change too. And not just within its own party. In September 2019 there was a very very slim chance, after Johnson kicked out 20 of his own MPs to leave the Conservatives on just 288.
A (much) better Leader of the Opposition than Corbyn could've exploited that and gone for a 'okay, let's stop THIS Brexit' and called for a VoNC. Get the other parties on board, get Ken Clarke and his merry band of 20 MPs on board, and you have 340 MPs or so to switch the government.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
I suspect this will be the dividing line in the Conservative Party after the election. Do they throw their lot in with Farage or do they resist him and all he represents?
I've just seen the Stamp Fairy story. Christ alive. I assumed Salmond & Sturgeon were control freaks because that was their nature, I didn't realise it was because the rest of the senior ledership were dribbling morons who couldn't be left alone for a minute.
The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
Although I’d have thought Castle Point or Thurrock would be ahead in the queue.
Castle Point yes, Thurrock no, with their model.
Makes sense. Notionals are Castle Point Con 76.5(!) Lab 16.8 Thurrock Con 60.0 Lab 33.0
One of the reasons that Reform aren't likely to need large sheets of paper for their MP directory. In most seats, the effect of taking votes off the Conservatives isn't to elect Reform MPs, it's to make the Conservatives undertake Labour. (A message that Andrew Rosindell is pushing with all his might.) Labour need to start an insanely long way behind to avoid that effect.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/22/nelson-hms-victory-gives-scientists-vital-dna-for-battle-against-deathwatch-beetle
Not to do a Liz Truss, but that would be a disgrace.
The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/27/denmark-ghetto-law-eviction-non-western-residents-housing-estates
The right will reorganise if the Tories fall. But I HOPE that it reorganises under someone other than Farage.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Must say this is starting to have a whiff of 1997 about it. Punters could see what was happening then but just didn't believe it.
Not quite sure I can believe what I am seeing myself.
Jesus fucking Christ.
1) What you said.
2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
Cities I have been to but never left the station:
Dundee
Perth
Stirling
Hereford
Plymouth
Truro
Portsmouth
Southampton
Peterborough
Preston
I've only travelled through Exeter and Winchester, and never baled.
Never been to or through Canterbury.
So likely retired working class getting quite old, or people who have inherited or purchased from such. Maybe empty nesters. I make it just a couple of hundred metres from Lee Anderson's family roots, but I *may* be wrong on that.
We have a lot of that, which gives me hope in my war on anti-wheelchair barriers; some of the people who have been happy to have there will soon have mobility scooters.
3 bed 1970s detached bungalows probably ~180-200k at present.
Not the best area to be - that gets more away from the centre as you go down the hill, and it's a long walk up a fairly formidable hill to amenities in the village high street, or a bus or car journey. But a peaceful cul-de-sac.
The three course meal with cheese course and a bottle of red is reccomended. You don't get that on Ryanair (or BA Club, for that matter)
Sounds like the whiteboard at BBC News HQ when planning their running order.
2 Sleaze
3 Truss playing wild with the economy
4 More sleaze
5 Too many immigrants
6 House prices too high for some
7 House prices too low for some
8 Yet more sleaze
9 Not enough government spending for some
10 Taxes too high for some
11 Even more sleaze
12 Time for a change
Using this, the largest urban area I've never been TO is Bristol, the largest I've never at least been through is Newport.
Yet again.
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
He's playing a lot of dog whistles, though.
Things end.
Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2020/1/15/denmarks-ghetto-plan-and-the-communities-it-targets
I’ve been to both jurisdictions in Ireland a few times but the smiling Anglophobia grates after a while. I let the (American) wife do the talking when we do.
No matter how well many people do they think they're entitled to be better off and that its the government's job to make it so.
‘Look guys, you just have to stop strapping wounded Palestinians to the bonnets of your vehicles, or at least don’t get filmed while doing it.’
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Have we heard from Goodwin recently?
I have "been volunteered" to attend my local count on election night.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-committee-criticizes-denmark-third-country-plans-asylum-seekers-2023-11-28/
Seriously this debate is pointless. All this hard right stuff is coming to every western country. It will either be via actual hard right parties (Italy France?) or via left wing parties desperately adopting right wing policies (Denmark)
I’m simply right and you are wrong
Only really Meloni of significant democratically elected leaders is still clearly ahead in the polls
"He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
(The H+U projection is Ref 27.6 Lab 26.7 Con 25.8, compared with notionals of Con 65.4 Lab 22.9 no Ref obviously in 2019. Seems like an awfully small Labour advance.)
And, if anything, we are continuing to see the Tory vote share drift rather than rebound back.
Of course we don't know which poll is right, but no traditional polls have exceeded 25% for over 2 weeks.
I think they need some small recovery to be confident of 100+ seats. Maybe Farage's Putinphilia will help, but who knows with Reform voters.
Evidence of the racist opinions of Stephen Patrick Morrissey continued to grow over the next 30 years but nothing, nothing, would shake my friends devotion until quite recently when he said “Yeah, maybe Johnny Marr was the talented one after all”
It’s the same with Farage and Trump. Fans project what they want onto them. The faith will not be broken.
Have you seen the ITV 2017 coverage? I think it's still on YouTube.
The first five minutes after the exit poll are just Osborne laughing hysterically at the result, before he manges some cock and bull story about how he'd always respected May and worked very well with her.... before laughing for another five minutes.
I’m cleverer than you.
BBC is very careful re time allocation - and they'll be measuring it over the whole campaign. If Farage has had a lot of exposure yesterday, today (and maybe tomorrow) it's almost certian he'll then get very little in the final 10 days.
The largest British city to which I have never been is Norwich.
I think I've been to all Leon's lengthy lost except Derry. Whitby, Rotherham, Lancaster, Stoke, the Yorkshire Dales (hell, I was there today - how can you not have been to England's second best National Park?)
Sale isn't as big as it suddenly appears. For a long time the population was about 60000 odd - then a few years back it suddenly leapt to 140000 odd. Delving into this, it appears Wythenshawe has suddenly and arbitrarily been lumped in with Sale. I can see no reason for this.
1983 42.4% to 27.6% = 1.54 to 1
1931 55.0% to 30.6% = 1.79 to 1
Today's polls:
Opinium 40% to 20% = 2.0 to 1
Savanta 42% to 19% = 2.21 to 1
Whigs triumph.
The rest of the country does not.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
No, 1.56-1
One thing that does seem to have been inherited from Britain is a hypersensitivity about race and causing offence. My son played football against a team from an immigrant ghetto in the childrens league which is supposedly about 'fair play'. At the end the kids from the immigrant team were rude to my sons team, even after they won, totally against the spirit of the league. According to our coach, this happens all the time, but no one complains because of 'racism'.
Bristol, Coventry, Derby, Portsmouth, Brighton, Plymouth, Northampton, Bournemouth, Swindon, Swansea
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804565965679845504
"Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
🚨 ELECTION INTERFERENCE ALERT 🚨
Big Tech giant @Google has BLOCKED our Ad Accounts. They are trying to stop the Reform message.
I hope @MattBrittin can look into this issue as a matter of urgency. We want action."
But who really wants to identify with an insular, even toxic country? The rivers say it all.
It’s the end of the line.
We want off.
Though I have been to every county in England and Wales.
In September 2019 there was a very very slim chance, after Johnson kicked out 20 of his own MPs to leave the Conservatives on just 288.
A (much) better Leader of the Opposition than Corbyn could've exploited that and gone for a 'okay, let's stop THIS Brexit' and called for a VoNC. Get the other parties on board, get Ken Clarke and his merry band of 20 MPs on board, and you have 340 MPs or so to switch the government.
No General Election required at all.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts?mrfhud=true
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
Castle Point Con 76.5(!) Lab 16.8
Thurrock Con 60.0 Lab 33.0
One of the reasons that Reform aren't likely to need large sheets of paper for their MP directory. In most seats, the effect of taking votes off the Conservatives isn't to elect Reform MPs, it's to make the Conservatives undertake Labour. (A message that Andrew Rosindell is pushing with all his might.) Labour need to start an insanely long way behind to avoid that effect.
Hence the seat projections we are seeing.