When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
Farage can't become PM without Tory votes
No, you've missed the point Destroying the Tories is only the first step. Once they are destroyed (inshAllah) then they will open up a vacuum for another right wing party to replace them. This will of course take a few years but it must happen
There is a small minority in the country who might agree with Farages comments but one could see how things could go south quickly when he gets to do the QT .
For example , “ you’ve said that you’d admired Putin as a political operator , does that include sending over two assassins to poison Skripal and his daughter and also when they successfully poisoned a British National on UK soil” .
“ Does your admiration go as far when he murders opposition in Russia and shuts down any dissent “ .
“You’ve also said positive things about Tate whose made misogynistic comments and who is waiting to stand trial in Romania “.
Much depends on what line Bruce takes , how confrontational might she be or told to be .
That PeoplePolling poll from the 18th is looking like a massive outlier.
Have we heard from Goodwin recently?
It's an outlier of about the same magnitude of the MoreInCommon poll that followed it, but that strangely did not result in everyone accusing the polling firm concerned of moral turpitude.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Age has caught up with me; bed and Radio 4 joint with R5, slower, soporific, Nick Robinson et al, possible Jim Naughtie, doze in the boring hours, no attempt to be first to know. No saloon cowboy graphics. no celeb drunks on Thames boats. And, as with all radio, better pictures.
I bumped into three fellow Lib Dems from my own local party while campaigning today in Mid Dunbartonshire. I have "been volunteered" to attend my local count on election night.
Why is that seat so much better for the LDs than all those around?
A local council base, centred around Bearsden and Milngavie, that built up through the 1980s , 1990s and 2000s. The 2005 boundaries were very favourable, with the LDs holding 12 of the 19 wards in the constituency at the time.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Did you do maths at school HY?
1983 42.4% to 27.6% = 1.54 to 1 1931 55.0% to 30.6% = 1.79 to 1
Today's polls: Opinium 40% to 20% = 2.0 to 1 Savanta 42% to 19% = 2.21 to 1
I would go further.
If you look at BJO pointless marker of the 12.9 million voters C*rbyn got in 2017, it’s meaningless without context. Much like every government can say “we are giving record sums to (a la NHS)” technically true, but pointless to the point of gaslighting without account for inflation means of course they should be.
For example, BJO’s fake yardstick of 12.9M would be less meaningless if placed in a % measure of total vote. GE24 is a very competitive market place for votes, GE17 the LibDems were as popular as a bowl of sick, greens a tiny mark in other column, Labour didn’t have Pro Gaza independentz sucking their votes away, nor a Brexit Populist also sucking on Labours vote.
so add context of Difficulty of the result, if you don’t want pointless performance indicator. A premiership team winning eight nil away at Sheffield Wednesday, has far less value than a one nil win at Man City.
For the record, I suggest don’t bet on Labour getting result below 40% if poll of polls still showing them 40%+, though historically they have underperformed polls, they will definitely be net beneficiary of tactical votes in 2024. I also feel some methodologies are being harsh on the Labour share, perhaps because of history of under shooting poll numbers.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
How much influence have any of these debates had?
As was astutely observed at the beginning, campaigns generally trundle along pretty much unaffected by anything that takes place within them. Which does make Mrs May’s sterling performance stand out all the more.
The outstanding moments of the campaign so far have been the D-Day debacle and the return of Farage. The betting scandal might have achieved some cut through. I doubt that anything else has. The net effect of all of it has most likely been relatively small and to the net detriment of an already badly struggling Government, as the polls have suggested.
My wife has gone to our holiday home, while I stay at home campaigning. It is in Suffolk Coastal. Lots of LD posters and only delivery is from the LDs and it is not the Royal Mail free delivery as we are not on the electoral register. Bit weird as Coffey has a 20,000 majority and that is over Lab not the LDs
In that case may help her stay on as Labour are her main challengers so anti Tory voters going LD helps her
Yep. I suspect however it is just a little pocket of libdemery. Southwold is LD on local elections and you drive through likely LD territory in the last few miles to get there. All outweighed by the rest of the constituency that isn't full of us LDs I suspect.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
The main significance of this Farage/Russia thing is going to be some voters switching back from Reform to the tories.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
How much influence have any of these debates had?
As was astutely observed at the beginning, campaigns generally trundle along pretty much unaffected by anything that takes place within them. Which does make Mrs May’s sterling performance stand out all the more.
I've just seen the Stamp Fairy story. Christ alive. I assumed Salmond & Sturgeon were control freaks because that was their nature, I didn't realise it was because the rest of the senior ledership were dribbling morons who couldn't be left alone for a minute.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
Or potentially, that people have the same level of information as you, or might (and I know this is a stretch) know more than you, but have come to a different conclusion on the facts than you have.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
How much influence have any of these debates had?
As was astutely observed at the beginning, campaigns generally trundle along pretty much unaffected by anything that takes place within them. Which does make Mrs May’s sterling performance stand out all the more.
The outstanding moments of the campaign so far have been the D-Day debacle and the return of Farage. The betting scandal might have achieved some cut through. I doubt that anything else has. The net effect of all of it has most likely been relatively small and to the net detriment of an already badly struggling Government, as the polls have suggested.
The betting scandal was what the pensioners I overheard earlier today in the pub were talking about. I think for many people the idea of betting on politics at all is a bit risque in a way that betting on football isn't. Couple this with the insider dealing aspect, and it's a rare interesting story outside.political geekery.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
Or potentially, that people have the same level of information as you, or might (and I know this is a stretch) know more than you, but have come to a different conclusion on the facts than you have.
I'm going to assume, for the sake of argument, everyone who posts on PB has the same level of information.
It's notable that you are one of maybe three longstanding posters who are sympathetic to the Farage argument.
If that's the ratio within the wider public, it's lower than Reform's existing polling and so should detract from their current position.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
When I was 15 in 1989 a friend introduced me to Morrissey and The Smiths. Mozza had an album out which contained a song called “Bengali in Platforms” with the refrain “life is hard enough when you belong here”. At the age of 15 I posited “that’s a bit racist”. “ no, it’s IRONIC” replied my friend “He hates Thatcher so he can’t be resist”
Evidence of the racist opinions of Stephen Patrick Morrissey continued to grow over the next 30 years but nothing, nothing, would shake my friends devotion until quite recently when he said “Yeah, maybe Johnny Marr was the talented one after all”
It’s the same with Farage and Trump. Fans project what they want onto them. The faith will not be broken.
It’s also True it wasn’t a gaff by Farage, he rather calculatedly stood by a long oft stated position he clearly believes to be true. Rather than a gaff, he’s calculating the establishment outrage to the plain speaking outsider as going to prove net positive, not a minus. Number12 said anecdote alert, but the story rings true, as how the Trump Playbook is proven to work.
We do have to ask, what if this furore (very Farage word) doesn’t hurt his momentum at all.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
Or potentially, that people have the same level of information as you, or might (and I know this is a stretch) know more than you, but have come to a different conclusion on the facts than you have.
I'm going to assume, for the sake of argument, everyone who posts on PB has the same level of information.
It's notable that you are one of maybe three longstanding posters who are sympathetic to the Farage argument.
If that's the ratio within the wider public, it's lower than Reform's existing polling and so should detract from their current position.
Most people here like to be liked, and don't have the stomach to be ridiculed, called a traitor, a bot, or in the pay of a foreign power. You'll notice some of the people prepared to challenge the orthdoxy on occasion are those who don't really care.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
When I was 15 in 1989 a friend introduced me to Morrissey and The Smiths. Mozza had an album out which contained a song called “Bengali in Platforms” with the refrain “life is hard enough when you belong here”. At the age of 15 I posited “that’s a bit racist”. “ no, it’s IRONIC” replied my friend “He hates Thatcher so he can’t be resist”
Evidence of the racist opinions of Stephen Patrick Morrissey continued to grow over the next 30 years but nothing, nothing, would shake my friends devotion until quite recently when he said “Yeah, maybe Johnny Marr was the talented one after all”
It’s the same with Farage and Trump. Fans project what they want onto them. The faith will not be broken.
It’s also True it wasn’t a gaff by Farage, he rather calculatedly stood by a long oft stated position he clearly believes to be true. Rather than a gaff, he’s calculating the establishment outrage to the plain speaking outsider as going to prove net positive, not a minus. Number12 said anecdote alert, but the story rings true, as how the Trump Playbook is proven to work.
We do have to ask, what if this furore (very Farage word) doesn’t hurt his momentum at all.
And what will?
Gaffe. A gaff by Farage would look like Hugh Hefner’s audition chamber with a whiff of Brewer’s Fayre.
My wife has gone to our holiday home, while I stay at home campaigning. It is in Suffolk Coastal. Lots of LD posters and only delivery is from the LDs and it is not the Royal Mail free delivery as we are not on the electoral register. Bit weird as Coffey has a 20,000 majority and that is over Lab not the LDs
In that case may help her stay on as Labour are her main challengers so anti Tory voters going LD helps her
Yep. I suspect however it is just a little pocket of libdemery. Southwold is LD on local elections and you drive through likely LD territory in the last few miles to get there. All outweighed by the rest of the constituency that isn't full of us LDs I suspect.
Southwold having over double the average house price of the rest of Suffolk also likely a factor.
Generally the higher the average house price the more likely the main challengers to the Tories are the LDs rather than Labour
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
Possibly, yes. 'Almost certainly' ? Don't be daft.
"He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
Yeah, we get that you suckle at the teet of Putin.
The rest of the country does not.
Shoot the messenger if you want, it's not going to change anything comrade.
When the messenger is talking shite, it does change things.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward
A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.
Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
Seriously this debate is pointless. All this hard right stuff is coming to every western country. It will either be via actual hard right parties (Italy France?) or via left wing parties desperately adopting right wing policies (Denmark)
I’m simply right and you are wrong
I think you will find you are very much mistaken Leon, as absolutely no other government in Europe has a Rwanda plan like the UK.
The key difference between offshore processing and the UK plan, is that only with the UK plan, if you are successful with an asylum claim, you don’t get asylum in UK - and it is this very crucial difference in which UK shreds our adherence to international asylum commitments that meant so much after the horrors of the 1930s and Second World War, horrors and commitments that should never be forgotten, and doing so in our name shames every single one of us.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
Farage can't become PM without Tory votes
No, you've missed the point Destroying the Tories is only the first step. Once they are destroyed (inshAllah) then they will open up a vacuum for another right wing party to replace them. This will of course take a few years but it must happen
It won't replace them, to get to power such a party would either have to merge with the Tories, as Reform and the Canadian Tories did in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada or form coalition governments with them if we have PR as say NZ First is in coalition with the Nationals in NZ or Meloni's party in coalition government with Forza Italia in Italy.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
Or potentially, that people have the same level of information as you, or might (and I know this is a stretch) know more than you, but have come to a different conclusion on the facts than you have.
I'm going to assume, for the sake of argument, everyone who posts on PB has the same level of information.
It's notable that you are one of maybe three longstanding posters who are sympathetic to the Farage argument.
If that's the ratio within the wider public, it's lower than Reform's existing polling and so should detract from their current position.
Most people here like to be liked, and don't have the stomach to be ridiculed, called a traitor, a bot, or in the pay of a foreign power. You'll notice some of the people prepared to challenge the orthdoxy on occasion are those who don't really care.
A convenient way of making holding an unorthodox opinion an inherently noble and heroic act, as opposed to those cowards who couldn't possibly agree with the orthodox opinion, they just want to be liked and lack stomach to say what they presumably mean.
When in fact neither orthodox or unorthodox opinions are better solely by reason of being orthodox or unorthodox. And people probably believe whichever view they espouse, they don't hold back out of fear but for a noble view - maybe they just don't hold it.
The airing of views others find ridiculous or even unconscionable is surely a good thing in the round, misguided group think will come to PB as it will to other places so needs to be pressed and challenged, but shouldn't we take people at face value that if they say something it's because they mean it? Not because they simply want to be liked, or are in the pay of Putin, or whatever?
We're all amateur anoraks here, mostly anonymous, there's no need to pretend orthodoxy to be liked, no more than pretend unorthodoxy to be contrarian.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Did you do maths at school HY?
1983 42.4% to 27.6% = 1.54 to 1 1931 55.0% to 30.6% = 1.79 to 1
Today's polls: Opinium 40% to 20% = 2.0 to 1 Savanta 42% to 19% = 2.21 to 1
1:54 and 1:79 to 1 are both pretty much close to 2:1.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
Or potentially, that people have the same level of information as you, or might (and I know this is a stretch) know more than you, but have come to a different conclusion on the facts than you have.
I'm going to assume, for the sake of argument, everyone who posts on PB has the same level of information.
It's notable that you are one of maybe three longstanding posters who are sympathetic to the Farage argument.
If that's the ratio within the wider public, it's lower than Reform's existing polling and so should detract from their current position.
Most people here like to be liked, and don't have the stomach to be ridiculed, called a traitor, a bot, or in the pay of a foreign power. You'll notice some of the people prepared to challenge the orthdoxy on occasion are those who don't really care.
A convenient way of making holding an unorthodox opinion an inherently noble and heroic act, as opposed to those cowards who couldn't possibly agree with the orthodox opinion, they just want to be liked and lack stomach to say what they presumably mean.
When in fact neither orthodox or unorthodox opinions are better solely by reason of being orthodox or unorthodox. And people probably believe whichever view they espouse, they don't hold back out of fear but for a noble view - maybe they just don't hold it.
The airing of views others find ridiculous or even unconscionable is surely a good thing in the round, misguided group think will come to PB as it will to other places so needs to be pressed and challenged, but shouldn't we take people at face value that if they say something it's because they mean it? Not because they simply want to be liked, or are in the pay of Putin, or whatever?
We're all amateur anoraks here, mostly anonymous, there's no need to pretend orthodoxy to be liked, no more than pretend unorthodoxy to be contrarian.
There is no material need, but there is still a strong impulse to do so.
Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.
It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.
Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
Did you do maths at school HY?
1983 42.4% to 27.6% = 1.54 to 1 1931 55.0% to 30.6% = 1.79 to 1
Today's polls: Opinium 40% to 20% = 2.0 to 1 Savanta 42% to 19% = 2.21 to 1
1:54 and 1:79 to 1 are both pretty much close to 2:1.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
Indeed, Liz Truss had the decency to be a fast moving trainwreck instead.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
Indeed, Liz Truss had the decency to be a fast moving trainwreck instead.
She crashed and burned because she tried to do too much, too fast. He has failed because he has done and acheived absolutely nothing. I know which I prefer.
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
If Reform do well, a possible outcome is that the Conservative party disintegrates, with the right-wing going to Reform and the left merging with the LDs, who might then go on to become the new centre-right party. FPTP makes it difficult to have anything other than a duopoly, and probably only around 25% of the UK population have an appetite for the post-truth policies espoused by Reform. So we end up with an LD/Con vs Labour duopoly with Reform/Con agitating on the right.
Hearing Richard Burgon has tonight placed a bet on the general election date being September 12th
So he is thinking hung parliament and further election?
I suppose its not impossible. The Labour score is overstated, with CON, REF and LD being the main beneficiaries on the day. FPTP being a cruel mistress results in:
LAB - 250 CON - 150 REF - 100 LD - 50 GRN - 25 NI & Rest - 75
Nothing works. Lab + LD is short and they won't work with SNP (who might still have 20 seats). CON + REF are nowhere close.
Kings Speech is tried by Labour, fails and another GE is scheduled for 12th September......
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
Even more remarkably they were so busy placing their bets they were totally unprepared for the election & never considered they'd definitely be caught. Not only are they endemically bent, they're also stupid *and* completely useless.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
Indeed, Liz Truss had the decency to be a fast moving trainwreck instead.
She crashed and burned because she tried to do too much, too fast. He has failed because he has done and acheived absolutely nothing. I know which I prefer.
I actually agree with you on this one, but it was an open goal so I had to take the shot.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
Even more remarkably they were so busy placing their bets they were totally unprepared for the election. Not only are they endemically bent, they're also completely useless.
Can I just take a moment to congratulate you on your creative use of the English language?
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
Even more remarkably they were so busy placing their bets they were totally unprepared for the election. Not only are they endemically bent, they're also completely useless.
Can I just take a moment to congratulate you on your creative use of the English language?
"Endemically Bent"
Excellent.
Can I just take a moment to congratulate you on your username.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
Or potentially, that people have the same level of information as you, or might (and I know this is a stretch) know more than you, but have come to a different conclusion on the facts than you have.
I'm going to assume, for the sake of argument, everyone who posts on PB has the same level of information.
It's notable that you are one of maybe three longstanding posters who are sympathetic to the Farage argument.
If that's the ratio within the wider public, it's lower than Reform's existing polling and so should detract from their current position.
Most people here like to be liked, and don't have the stomach to be ridiculed, called a traitor, a bot, or in the pay of a foreign power. You'll notice some of the people prepared to challenge the orthdoxy on occasion are those who don't really care.
Perhaps its recognised that Farage has history with the EU and he has previously overdramatised its malevolent influence?
And tbh, who cares what he has to say on why we are where we are. Most schools have a dozen or more young Ukrainian refugees. That’s a thing.
Voting for some gobby shitehawk who knows better, for most of us, not so much.
Reform may have split off one of the seven tribes ( in theory ~17% ) but there isn’t much more out there to harvest.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
The full impact of this still hadn't filtered through in the polling, so despite Farage's poor handling of the Ukraine question in the Nick Robinson interview, Reform could still be due a further polling bounce.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
It's the drawing back of the curtain to reveal a bunch of unelected nobodies having more power and knowledge than His Majesty's Cabinet. And playing all of us for mugs.
I once mused on the Johnson-Cummings relationship being like Wooster and Jeeves except in a dark reboot where Jeeves gaslights his employer and takes over entirely. The sort of thing Harold Pinter would write.
Boris and Dom have gone, but it looks like that warped relationship lives on.
Hearing Richard Burgon has tonight placed a bet on the general election date being September 12th
So he is thinking hung parliament and further election?
I suppose its not impossible. The Labour score is overstated, with CON, REF and LD being the main beneficiaries on the day. FPTP being a cruel mistress results in:
LAB - 250 CON - 150 REF - 100 LD - 50 GRN - 25 NI & Rest - 75
Nothing works. Lab + LD is short and they won't work with SNP (who might still have 20 seats). CON + REF are nowhere close.
Kings Speech is tried by Labour, fails and another GE is scheduled for 12th September......
Edit - can't count....
Northern Ireland has annexed Greater Manchester on those figures.
You know how Starmer is a lucky general? Sunak must be the unluckiest. The day ha manages to get Zelensky to make an intervention which would likely have more impact on winning over reform voters than all of his own attacks put together there's a new angle on Tory sleaze that will almost certainly drown it out.
As an aside, I very much believe you make your own luck.
You know how Starmer is a lucky general? Sunak must be the unluckiest. The day ha manages to get Zelensky to make an intervention which would likely have more impact on winning over reform voters than all of his own attacks put together there's a new angle on Tory sleaze that will almost certainly drown it out.
Surrounding yourself with a cadre of venal, juvenile shitheads is not bad luck.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
The full impact of this still hadn't filtered through in the polling, so despite Farage's poor handling of the Ukraine question in the Nick Robinson interview, Reform could still be due a further polling bounce.
My mind is blown. Not only have these people torpedoed the Tories ability to make their snap election actually function, they are so desperately corrupt in a completely banal and pointless way that they have reminded everyone of their far more serious episodes of grifting.
I am campaigning on how the Tories and SNP are really the same choice. And here it is. The SNP? Motorhome and books so untouchable in Scotland that they have to go to a small Manchester practice to get them signed. The Tories? Yep, betting on the date of the election for pennies in a way that is so inept that they will all win the bet but lose their jobs.
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
If Reform do well, a possible outcome is that the Conservative party disintegrates, with the right-wing going to Reform and the left merging with the LDs, who might then go on to become the new centre-right party. FPTP makes it difficult to have anything other than a duopoly, and probably only around 25% of the UK population have an appetite for the post-truth policies espoused by Reform. So we end up with an LD/Con vs Labour duopoly with Reform/Con agitating on the right.
No, we would end up with Reform/Con v Starmer Labour and probably PM Farage within a decade under FPTP.
Even on tonight's Opinium Reform plus Con combined are on 36% to 40% for Labour with the LDs on just 12% and the vast majority of current Tory voters and members would join with Reform rather than the LDs. Especially when much of what was in the Reform manifesto was traditional Conservative in flavour while the LD manifesto was largely reheated social democracy
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
You know how Starmer is a lucky general? Sunak must be the unluckiest. The day ha manages to get Zelensky to make an intervention which would likely have more impact on winning over reform voters than all of his own attacks put together there's a new angle on Tory sleaze that will almost certainly drown it out.
As an aside, I very much believe you make your own luck.
He has a chance on Wednesday in prime time BBC1 to beat Starmer in the final debate and make his own luck there
Tories are kamikaze Labour are frit Farage shills for Putin Davey clowns to make serious points
Best election ever
It’s true that once he has towelled down, comes in front the mic, he gives solid sound byte on point of the day to the camera, astutely on the topics to get angry former Tory and tactical Labour switchers. Grab the attention somehow, then smoothly slip in the message of the day. Good campaign so far.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
Seriously? I still think they could get 120-130.
3rd behind Ref in votes?
4th behind LDs and who else in seats?
Thanks Sean.
Either behind Reform or SNP in seats. This election is the Conservatives’ end.
I think they will end up in 3rd place with votes (behind Labour and Reform) but a decent second place in seats.
I despair if Reform come second in votes.
Not to do a Liz Truss, but that would be a disgrace.
Oh I would share your despair but I am a realist. The other parties, particularly the Tories, have made such a mess of everything over the last 3 decades that people will look elsewhere. Left, Right, whatever. But they are abandoning the centre.
You know how Starmer is a lucky general? Sunak must be the unluckiest. The day ha manages to get Zelensky to make an intervention which would likely have more impact on winning over reform voters than all of his own attacks put together there's a new angle on Tory sleaze that will almost certainly drown it out.
As an aside, I very much believe you make your own luck.
He has a chance on Wednesday in prime time BBC1 to beat Starmer in the final debate and make his own luck there
How? , by threatening that Starmer's government will do things that his own government has already been doing?
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
Partygate was damaging but just compounded normal mid-term dissatisfaction, and nobody outside the Westminster bubble cared about Pincher. It really was a mistake not to stick with Boris.
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Everything is material to how we cast our vote, Pesto. Are all secrets to be revealed? And damn due process?
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
The full impact of this still hadn't filtered through in the polling, so despite Farage's poor handling of the Ukraine question in the Nick Robinson interview, Reform could still be due a further polling bounce.
My mind is blown. Not only have these people torpedoed the Tories ability to make their snap election actually function, they are so desperately corrupt in a completely banal and pointless way that they have reminded everyone of their far more serious episodes of grifting.
I am campaigning on how the Tories and SNP are really the same choice. And here it is. The SNP? Motorhome and books so untouchable in Scotland that they have to go to a small Manchester practice to get them signed. The Tories? Yep, betting on the date of the election for pennies in a way that is so inept that they will all win the bet but lose their jobs.
I thought you got the best of the soundbites in that Sky piece earlier, even though they mainly focused on the SNP and the Tories.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
Partygate was damaging but just compounded normal mid-term dissatisfaction, and nobody outside the Westminster bubble cared about Pincher. It really was a mistake not to stick with Boris.
Yup. This site is obsessed with the fact that “he lied” and Pincher. No normal person cares about those things. They cared about partygate but he’d have won his recall election and brazened it all out.
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Surprised to see that Pink Floyd's drummer is now the Tory's Head of Data - must have gone to the Dark Side.
Tories are kamikaze Labour are frit Farage shills for Putin Davey clowns to make serious points
Best election ever
It’s true that once he has towelled down, comes in front the mic, he gives solid sound byte on point of the day to the camera, astutely on the topics to get angry former Tory and tactical Labour switchers. Grab the attention somehow, then smoothly slip in the message of the day. Good campaign so far.
Matthew Thompson of Sky told me unprompted that our campaign is getting massive cut through....
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
Seriously? I still think they could get 120-130.
3rd behind Ref in votes?
4th behind LDs and who else in seats?
Thanks Sean.
Either behind Reform or SNP in seats. This election is the Conservatives’ end.
I think they will end up in 3rd place with votes (behind Labour and Reform) but a decent second place in seats.
I despair if Reform come second in votes.
Not to do a Liz Truss, but that would be a disgrace.
Oh I would share your despair but I am a realist. The other parties, particularly the Tories, have made such a mess of everything over the last 3 decades that people will look elsewhere. Left, Right, whatever. But they are abandoning the centre.
I don't think they are abandoning the centre, they're coalescing around one major party in the centre.
The fruitcakes, nuts and loons of Reform are only going to be second, in the sad event they are, because of the failure of any other party to be able to come second, not because they've done exceptionally well.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
Partygate was damaging but just compounded normal mid-term dissatisfaction, and nobody outside the Westminster bubble cared about Pincher. It really was a mistake not to stick with Boris.
Yup. This site is obsessed with the fact that “he lied” and Pincher. No normal person cares about those things. They cared about partygate but he’d have won his recall election and brazened it all out.
I'm a normal person. I care if the Prime Minister of my country lies (repeatedly).
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
It's the drawing back of the curtain to reveal a bunch of unelected nobodies having more power and knowledge than His Majesty's Cabinet. And playing all of us for mugs.
I once mused on the Johnson-Cummings relationship being like Wooster and Jeeves except in a dark reboot where Jeeves gaslights his employer and takes over entirely. The sort of thing Harold Pinter would write.
Boris and Dom have gone, but it looks like that warped relationship lives on.
It’s been echo chamber management from Boris and Sunak similar to how Vennels preferred toads to challenge - and look what that produced.
compared with Lady Thatcher with her Bernard and with wets in every cabinet, and Major with Bastards in his cabinet.
It’s not just the size of majority that could give Starmer a powerful position, if Ed Miliband got the same majority in 2015 he would have had far less power with it. Why? The Brexit Tories have repatriated powers from EU, where controls were pooled, and our government bound by commitments. In power for the next 10 or even 15 years straight, the incoming Labour government will have more power and influence over Britain than any majority government for about 65 years.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
Partygate was damaging but just compounded normal mid-term dissatisfaction, and nobody outside the Westminster bubble cared about Pincher. It really was a mistake not to stick with Boris.
Yes if Boris was still Conservative leader it would probably be something like Labour 35-40%, Tories 30%, LDs 10-15%, Reform 5%.
Labour likely winning most seats but not even certain of a majority and Reform heading for 0 seats and a distant 4th on votes
That PeoplePolling poll from the 18th is looking like a massive outlier.
Have we heard from Goodwin recently?
Have you Goodwinned another thread Ben??
In an homage to the 2010 election, should polls with a Reform lead over the Tories be illustrated by a row of smiling Goodwins?
A wonderful idea, William. I suggest OGH also incorporates a beaming TRUSS for every point the Conservatives gain in each poll, up until the election. It could be an interesting addition to the site.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
The full impact of this still hadn't filtered through in the polling, so despite Farage's poor handling of the Ukraine question in the Nick Robinson interview, Reform could still be due a further polling bounce.
My mind is blown. Not only have these people torpedoed the Tories ability to make their snap election actually function, they are so desperately corrupt in a completely banal and pointless way that they have reminded everyone of their far more serious episodes of grifting.
I am campaigning on how the Tories and SNP are really the same choice. And here it is. The SNP? Motorhome and books so untouchable in Scotland that they have to go to a small Manchester practice to get them signed. The Tories? Yep, betting on the date of the election for pennies in a way that is so inept that they will all win the bet but lose their jobs.
I thought you got the best of the soundbites in that Sky piece earlier, even though they mainly focused on the SNP and the Tories.
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
Partygate was damaging but just compounded normal mid-term dissatisfaction, and nobody outside the Westminster bubble cared about Pincher. It really was a mistake not to stick with Boris.
Yup. This site is obsessed with the fact that “he lied” and Pincher. No normal person cares about those things. They cared about partygate but he’d have won his recall election and brazened it all out.
I'm a normal person. I care if the Prime Minister of my country lies (repeatedly).
With respect, none of us posting on here are “normal” in the sense I meant of the “man on the Clapham omnibus”.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
Seriously? I still think they could get 120-130.
3rd behind Ref in votes?
4th behind LDs and who else in seats?
Thanks Sean.
Either behind Reform or SNP in seats. This election is the Conservatives’ end.
I think they will end up in 3rd place with votes (behind Labour and Reform) but a decent second place in seats.
I despair if Reform come second in votes.
Not to do a Liz Truss, but that would be a disgrace.
Oh I would share your despair but I am a realist. The other parties, particularly the Tories, have made such a mess of everything over the last 3 decades that people will look elsewhere. Left, Right, whatever. But they are abandoning the centre.
I don't think they are abandoning the centre, they're coalescing around one major party in the centre.
The fruitcakes, nuts and loons of Reform are only going to be second, in the sad event they are, because of the failure of any other party to be able to come second, not because they've done exceptionally well.
Thats a kind of a daft comment. All parties do well, in part, because of the failings of their opponents. Labour are doing well now, not because they have done anything particularly well, but because their opponents have done particularly badly. It was ever thus.
And yes, Trump, Reform, Corbynism and the rise of the right wing parties in Europe, are all a result of the failure of the established parties to actually work for the electorate. That in no way says that these extremists will do any better, just that they have been provided with an opportunity and are devious enough to take it.
They (the extremists) pretend to be addressing the legitimate concerns of the electorate but at the same time bring a whole heap of other baggage in terms of corruption, ideology and lack of respect for democratic processes with them. By the time they get to the Trump stage it is too late to stop them without a lot of heartache. What needs to happen is for the established parties to realise they are disconnected from the electorate and do something about that before it gets to that point.
By the way, would just like to say how delighted I am to see @welshowl posting again on here. It was only last month that I commented on how it was sad he was no longer posting and now he has returned Hopefuly he willl stay around (as long as his techincal issues are resolved)
Whistling tunes, we hide in the dunes by the seaside It's a knockout...
The scale of the change coming in this election is truly without frontiers.
Lady Thatcher had a transformative decade in power. Ten years can be a very very long time in government (and out of it) For how long will Labour squat in there, comfortably unchallenged?
Suggesting Conservatives can quickly come back to power, by quickly we mean limit Labour to a mere 2 terms, as suggesting they don’t get even 1 re-election is just not debating sensible - has to take into account how much joy Labour will have at future General Elections dining out on the Tory record in government. In how many general elections did Tory’s successfully exploit memory of the 74 to 79 Labour governments to help them to re-election? How many of the coming general elections does this legacy of the 14 Tory years, particularly the surreal and abysmal last 5, hurt Tory election chances? Voters will remember what, the NHS, the dentistry, the mortgages, the food prices, the rivers and coastlines of sewage, the out of touch politicians on the make? The lockdown parties, the lying, the three Prime Minsters in one term, all of them awful? How quickly will lifelong Tory voting remainers forgive the Conservatives especially if Labour remain centre ground and moderate? How quickly can the Tories return to the centre ground and sound moderate and safe with government again? In how many general elections did Tory’s successfully exploit Labour splits and the loonies with extreme views and policies?
Just how difficult is it going to be for Labour in the coming years? Whoever wins this election, the biggest tax take since Second World War is already programmed in by Sunak and Hunt for the winner to own - but is that such a bad thing, as it’s both lots of money to play with, also tax cuts just before the next general election shoots all the Tory foxes. The bounce back growth economists are predicting is a bonus, both in political share price after years of Tory economic failure, and even more money to play with.
Labour only have to be half competent and half successful and even a moderate rejuvenated Tory Party will struggle against them for several elections.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
The way you could see this happening is if the insiders also don't *know* that the election is going to happen, but it's leaked. They can't act on it as part of their jobs because they're not officially supposed to know, it's only a rumour. But they also want to experience the joy of being in-the-know while everybody else is in the dark, so they head for the nearest Ladbrokes.
More broadly this is the same problem that Putin had. You want to use tactical surprise to catch the enemy unprepared. But if you tell your own people then it'll leak, so you end up catching your own army unprepared as well.
'When I spoke to the Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie ahead of the local elections, he referred to the party as a “decaying organism”, a poisoned tree suffering the “political equivalent of Dutch elm disease”, with everything from candidate selection to the way ideas are debated declining over the past 14 years.'
Really great if not surprising article. I think the best bit is laying out just how inexperienced and inept Sunak had been as a member of the Conservative Party.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
Seriously? I still think they could get 120-130.
3rd behind Ref in votes?
4th behind LDs and who else in seats?
Thanks Sean.
Either behind Reform or SNP in seats. This election is the Conservatives’ end.
I think they will end up in 3rd place with votes (behind Labour and Reform) but a decent second place in seats.
I despair if Reform come second in votes.
Not to do a Liz Truss, but that would be a disgrace.
Oh I would share your despair but I am a realist. The other parties, particularly the Tories, have made such a mess of everything over the last 3 decades that people will look elsewhere. Left, Right, whatever. But they are abandoning the centre.
I don't think they are abandoning the centre, they're coalescing around one major party in the centre.
The fruitcakes, nuts and loons of Reform are only going to be second, in the sad event they are, because of the failure of any other party to be able to come second, not because they've done exceptionally well.
Thats a kind of a daft comment. All parties do well, in part, because of the failings of their opponents. Labour are doing well now, not because they have done anything particularly well, but because their opponents have done particularly badly. It was ever thus.
And yes, Trump, Reform, Corbynism and the rise of the right wing parties in Europe, are all a result of the failure of the established parties to actually work for the electorate. That in no way says that these extremists will do any better, just that they have been provided with an opportunity and are devious enough to take it.
They (the extremists) pretend to be addressing the legitimate concerns of the electorate but at the same time bring a whole heap of other baggage in terms of corruption, ideology and lack of respect for democratic processes with them. By the time they get to the Trump stage it is too late to stop them without a lot of heartache. What needs to happen is for the established parties to realise they are disconnected from the electorate and do something about that before it gets to that point.
There are issues.
Take the Danish policy, posted above, about breaking up immigrant ghettos.
This is a response to a series of issues that have occurred in and around such areas.
The policy isn’t the answer to the issues, the probably. It came about because on one side, politicians denied there was any issue. On the other side they invented “solutions”.
When the problems became too evident to ignore the “solutions”, created by one side, seemed to be *all* the options.
Whistling tunes, we hide in the dunes by the seaside It's a knockout...
The scale of the change coming in this election is truly without frontiers.
Lady Thatcher had a transformative decade in power. Ten years can be a very very long time in government (and out of it) For how long will Labour squat in there, comfortably unchallenged?
Suggesting Conservatives can quickly come back to power, by quickly we mean limit Labour to a mere 2 terms, as suggesting they don’t get even 1 re-election is just not debating sensible - has to take into account how much joy Labour will have at future General Elections dining out on the Tory record in government. In how many general elections did Tory’s successfully exploit memory of the 74 to 79 Labour governments to help them to re-election? How many of the coming general elections does this legacy of the 14 Tory years, particularly the surreal and abysmal last 5, hurt Tory election chances? Voters will remember what, the NHS, the dentistry, the mortgages, the food prices, the rivers and coastlines of sewage, the out of touch politicians on the make? The lockdown parties, the lying, the three Prime Minsters in one term, all of them awful? How quickly will lifelong Tory voting remainers forgive the Conservatives especially if Labour remain centre ground and moderate? How quickly can the Tories return to the centre ground and sound moderate and safe with government again? In how many general elections did Tory’s successfully exploit Labour splits and the loonies with extreme views and policies?
Just how difficult is it going to be for Labour in the coming years? Whoever wins this election, the biggest tax take since Second World War is already programmed in by Sunak and Hunt for the winner to own - but is that such a bad thing, as it’s both lots of money to play with, also tax cuts just before the next general election shoots all the Tory foxes. The bounce back growth economists are predicting is a bonus, both in political share price after years of Tory economic failure, and even more money to play with.
Labour only have to be half competent and half successful and even a moderate rejuvenated Tory Party will struggle against them for several elections.
Noted. I don't know what to think about it.
I want the Conservatives to lose so that they can go away and rebuild from first principles. But I don't know if they will do that, or even that they can, because all the ideologues have left or become Anglosphere loyalists, forgetting that Britain is its people and Trump is a foreigner. So I'm not looking forward to the next five years.
"The EU are preparing to sell war bonds to pay for the war" "The problem with selling war bonds is that you actually owe someone a war, then, dontcha?"
Comments
https://t.me/noel_reports/13405
I haven't seen such a large ammunition store taken out by a small drone before. I had thought that they had all been moved out of HIMARS range.
Destroying the Tories is only the first step. Once they are destroyed (inshAllah) then they will open up a vacuum for another right wing party to replace them. This will of course take a few years but it must happen
For example , “ you’ve said that you’d admired Putin as a political operator , does that include sending over two assassins to poison Skripal and his daughter and also when they successfully poisoned a British National on UK soil” .
“ Does your admiration go as far when he murders opposition in Russia and shuts down any dissent “ .
“You’ve also said positive things about Tate whose made misogynistic comments and who is waiting to stand trial in Romania “.
Much depends on what line Bruce takes , how confrontational might she be or told to be .
The 2005 boundaries were very favourable, with the LDs holding 12 of the 19 wards in the constituency at the time.
If you look at BJO pointless marker of the 12.9 million voters C*rbyn got in 2017, it’s meaningless without context. Much like every government can say “we are giving record sums to (a la NHS)” technically true, but pointless to the point of gaslighting without account for inflation means of course they should be.
For example, BJO’s fake yardstick of 12.9M would be less meaningless if placed in a % measure of total vote. GE24 is a very competitive market place for votes, GE17 the LibDems were as popular as a bowl of sick, greens a tiny mark in other column, Labour didn’t have Pro Gaza independentz sucking their votes away, nor a Brexit Populist also sucking on Labours vote.
so add context of Difficulty of the result, if you don’t want pointless performance indicator. A premiership team winning eight nil away at Sheffield Wednesday, has far less value than a one nil win at Man City.
For the record, I suggest don’t bet on Labour getting result below 40% if poll of polls still showing them 40%+, though historically they have underperformed polls, they will definitely be net beneficiary of tactical votes in 2024. I also feel some methodologies are being harsh on the Labour share, perhaps because of history of under shooting poll numbers.
So I don't think UK 2024 will be like this, but it's here to watch for anyone interested:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special
I see the NS has both Newton Abbot and Didcot & W as LibDem
I think for many people the idea of betting on politics at all is a bit risque in a way that betting on football isn't. Couple this with the insider dealing aspect, and it's a rare interesting story outside.political geekery.
It's notable that you are one of maybe three longstanding posters who are sympathetic to the Farage argument.
If that's the ratio within the wider public, it's lower than Reform's existing polling and so should detract from their current position.
Hearing Richard Burgon has tonight placed a bet on the general election date being September 12th
We do have to ask, what if this furore (very Farage word) doesn’t hurt his momentum at all.
And what will?
A gaff by Farage would look like Hugh Hefner’s audition chamber with a whiff of Brewer’s Fayre.
Generally the higher the average house price the more likely the main challengers to the Tories are the LDs rather than Labour
'Almost certainly' ? Don't be daft.
The key difference between offshore processing and the UK plan, is that only with the UK plan, if you are successful with an asylum claim, you don’t get asylum in UK - and it is this very crucial difference in which UK shreds our adherence to international asylum commitments that meant so much after the horrors of the 1930s and Second World War, horrors and commitments that should never be forgotten, and doing so in our name shames every single one of us.
When in fact neither orthodox or unorthodox opinions are better solely by reason of being orthodox or unorthodox. And people probably believe whichever view they espouse, they don't hold back out of fear but for a noble view - maybe they just don't hold it.
The airing of views others find ridiculous or even unconscionable is surely a good thing in the round, misguided group think will come to PB as it will to other places so needs to be pressed and challenged, but shouldn't we take people at face value that if they say something it's because they mean it? Not because they simply want to be liked, or are in the pay of Putin, or whatever?
We're all amateur anoraks here, mostly anonymous, there's no need to pretend orthodoxy to be liked, no more than pretend unorthodoxy to be contrarian.
We Think, which is still the pollster with the most recent sample has it slightly less than 2:1 now at 43% to 22%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Maybe he's just forward looking.
https://x.com/AllieHBNews/status/1804614691479793745
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
LAB - 250
CON - 150
REF - 100
LD - 50
GRN - 25
NI & Rest - 75
Nothing works. Lab + LD is short and they won't work with SNP (who might still have 20 seats).
CON + REF are nowhere close.
Kings Speech is tried by Labour, fails and another GE is scheduled for 12th September......
Edit - can't count....
"Endemically Bent"
Excellent.
Tim
In
Ruislip
Perhaps its recognised that Farage has history with the EU and he has previously overdramatised its malevolent influence?
And tbh, who cares what he has to say on why we are where we are. Most schools have a dozen or more young Ukrainian refugees. That’s a thing.
Voting for some gobby shitehawk who knows better, for most of us, not so much.
Reform may have split off one of the seven tribes ( in theory ~17% ) but there isn’t much more out there to harvest.
I once mused on the Johnson-Cummings relationship being like Wooster and Jeeves except in a dark reboot where Jeeves gaslights his employer and takes over entirely. The sort of thing Harold Pinter would write.
Boris and Dom have gone, but it looks like that warped relationship lives on.
As an aside, I very much believe you make your own luck.
Labour are frit
Farage shills for Putin
Davey clowns to make serious points
Best election ever
I am campaigning on how the Tories and SNP are really the same choice. And here it is. The SNP? Motorhome and books so untouchable in Scotland that they have to go to a small Manchester practice to get them signed. The Tories? Yep, betting on the date of the election for pennies in a way that is so inept that they will all win the bet but lose their jobs.
Even on tonight's Opinium Reform plus Con combined are on 36% to 40% for Labour with the LDs on just 12% and the vast majority of current Tory voters and members would join with Reform rather than the LDs. Especially when much of what was in the Reform manifesto was traditional Conservative in flavour while the LD manifesto was largely reheated social democracy
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Tories are kamikaze
Labour are frit
Farage shills for Putin
Davey clowns with it
Whistling tunes, we hide in the dunes by the seaside
It's a knockout...
The fruitcakes, nuts and loons of Reform are only going to be second, in the sad event they are, because of the failure of any other party to be able to come second, not because they've done exceptionally well.
I care if the Prime Minister of my country lies (repeatedly).
compared with Lady Thatcher with her Bernard and with wets in every cabinet, and Major with Bastards in his cabinet.
It’s not just the size of majority that could give Starmer a powerful position, if Ed Miliband got the same majority in 2015 he would have had far less power with it. Why? The Brexit Tories have repatriated powers from EU, where controls were pooled, and our government bound by commitments. In power for the next 10 or even 15 years straight, the incoming Labour government will have more power and influence over Britain than any majority government for about 65 years.
#BrexitDividend
Labour likely winning most seats but not even certain of a majority and Reform heading for 0 seats and a distant 4th on votes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2t5WP1uYAI
And yes, Trump, Reform, Corbynism and the rise of the right wing parties in Europe, are all a result of the failure of the established parties to actually work for the electorate. That in no way says that these extremists will do any better, just that they have been provided with an opportunity and are devious enough to take it.
They (the extremists) pretend to be addressing the legitimate concerns of the electorate but at the same time bring a whole heap of other baggage in terms of corruption, ideology and lack of respect for democratic processes with them. By the time they get to the Trump stage it is too late to stop them without a lot of heartache. What needs to happen is for the established parties to realise they are disconnected from the electorate and do something about that before it gets to that point.
Middlesbrough
Warrington
Blackburn
Maidstone
Doncaster
Basingstoke
Crawley (excl. Gatwick)
Rotherham
Gillingham
That's down to number 75. Probably been in a car past most of them though.
He was, indeed, the next William Hague.
How the Tory party campaign came apart.
By Rachel Cunliffe"
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-report/2024/06/tory-collapse-conservative-party-wipeout
Suggesting Conservatives can quickly come back to power, by quickly we mean limit Labour to a mere 2 terms, as suggesting they don’t get even 1 re-election is just not debating sensible - has to take into account how much joy Labour will have at future General Elections dining out on the Tory record in government. In how many general elections did Tory’s successfully exploit memory of the 74 to 79 Labour governments to help them to re-election? How many of the coming general elections does this legacy of the 14 Tory years, particularly the surreal and abysmal last 5, hurt Tory election chances? Voters will remember what, the NHS, the dentistry, the mortgages, the food prices, the rivers and coastlines of sewage, the out of touch politicians on the make? The lockdown parties, the lying, the three Prime Minsters in one term, all of them awful? How quickly will lifelong Tory voting remainers forgive the Conservatives especially if Labour remain centre ground and moderate? How quickly can the Tories return to the centre ground and sound moderate and safe with government again? In how many general elections did Tory’s successfully exploit Labour splits and the loonies with extreme views and policies?
Just how difficult is it going to be for Labour in the coming years? Whoever wins this election, the biggest tax take since Second World War is already programmed in by Sunak and Hunt for the winner to own - but is that such a bad thing, as it’s both lots of money to play with, also tax cuts just before the next general election shoots all the Tory foxes. The bounce back growth economists are predicting is a bonus, both in political share price after years of Tory economic failure, and even more money to play with.
Labour only have to be half competent and half successful and even a moderate rejuvenated Tory Party will struggle against them for several elections.
More broadly this is the same problem that Putin had. You want to use tactical surprise to catch the enemy unprepared. But if you tell your own people then it'll leak, so you end up catching your own army unprepared as well.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-heat-health-alert-issued-for-most-of-england-with-warning-of-significant-impacts-in-parts-of-country-13157124
I've been recommended, on YouTube, a 2 hour podcast episode from "Resistance GB" featuring Andrew Bridgen.
It has 117k views and 2.1k comments.
This shit is seriously popular.
I'm going down the rabbit hole. Wish me luck...
Really great if not surprising article. I think the best bit is laying out just how inexperienced and inept Sunak had been as a member of the Conservative Party.
Here are the seats they all agree on.
LAB 393
CON 42
RFM 1
LIB 30
GRN 1
NAT 14
OTH 0
Disputed 153
Take the Danish policy, posted above, about breaking up immigrant ghettos.
This is a response to a series of issues that have occurred in and around such areas.
The policy isn’t the answer to the issues, the probably. It came about because on one side, politicians denied there was any issue. On the other side they invented “solutions”.
When the problems became too evident to ignore the “solutions”, created by one side, seemed to be *all* the options.
I want the Conservatives to lose so that they can go away and rebuild from first principles. But I don't know if they will do that, or even that they can, because all the ideologues have left or become Anglosphere loyalists, forgetting that Britain is its people and Trump is a foreigner. So I'm not looking forward to the next five years.
Sorry. i don't know if this is helping you.
"The EU are preparing to sell war bonds to pay for the war"
"The problem with selling war bonds is that you actually owe someone a war, then, dontcha?"