There is another twist in this election. What if Farage appears on Tv five days before the election crying saying I love my country. I have decided to tell my supporters to vote Tory. I am standing down my candidates in any constituency that would stop the Tories from keeping their seats in parliament. Yup, I did this last time. He cries a bit more. He has a pint to calm himself. He drops the bombshell. I have had a better job offer and it pays a lot of money. So I am off. He then gets into his TR7 and says I will be back like Arnie. The car shortly bursts into flames while he is paying for his fuel in a petrol station, it had a electrical fault apparently.A helicopter arrives and picks him up by the pub next door. In a flash he is gone.
The Tories and the Us election.Trump lost last time. It is now a done deal that he will win. I doubt that. A done deal that the Tories will get less than 100 seats. No to that as well. I would rather wait for both election results. He still has time to screw things up. He can count on his support base. Great. Wait and see on both in both cases. One thing is for sure. Anyone on here who bets on the Tories getting less than 100 seats will loose their money. 150 more likely.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
Starmer will find a way for us to get closer to Europe if not rejoin. It is his mission. He is a lawyer after all and will say that he has done nothing of the sort. Business as usual.
The EU were behind Yanukovych's rigging of the courts to revoke the constitution, unlawful rejection of a bill passed by the Verkhovna Rada and the decision of the police to fire on protestors?
There is another twist in this election. What if Farage appears on Tv five days before the election crying saying I love my country. I have decided to tell my supporters to vote Tory. I am standing down my candidates in any constituency that would stop the Tories from keeping their seats in parliament. Yup, I did this last time. He cries a bit more. He has a pint to calm himself. He drops the bombshell. I have had a better job offer and it pays a lot of money. So I am off. He then gets into his TR7 and says I will be back like Arnie. The car shortly bursts into flames while he is paying for his fuel in a petrol station, it had a electrical fault apparently.A helicopter arrives and picks him up by the pub next door. In a flash he is gone.
Let’s take those things one at a time shall we.
The pint is plausible, though he favours red wine off camera.
Thank you. One of the rare academics to come out of Salford University then. I knew someone who was on the fashion design course there. But he certainly knows how to put together a CV.
Oi. It was a top engineering university back in the day.
Back in the day it had a decent football team just down the road
There is another twist in this election. What if Farage appears on Tv five days before the election crying saying I love my country. I have decided to tell my supporters to vote Tory. I am standing down my candidates in any constituency that would stop the Tories from keeping their seats in parliament. Yup, I did this last time. He cries a bit more. He has a pint to calm himself. He drops the bombshell. I have had a better job offer and it pays a lot of money. So I am off. He then gets into his TR7 and says I will be back like Arnie. The car shortly bursts into flames while he is paying for his fuel in a petrol station, it had a electrical fault apparently.A helicopter arrives and picks him up by the pub next door. In a flash he is gone.
He can’t ‘stand his candidates down’. They and their affiliation are on the ballot.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
The EU were behind Yanukovych's rigging of the courts to revoke the constitution, unlawful rejection of a bill passed by the Verkhovna Rada and the decision of the police to fire on protestors?
Huge, if true.
This is the risk of Farage getting airtime on these points. It may put voters off Farage, but it also gets Russian talking points aired repeatedly.
"Top 10 Generative AI Models Mimic Russian Disinformation Claims A Third of the Time, Citing Moscow-Created Fake Local News Sites as Authoritative Sources
NewsGuard audit finds that 32% of the time, leading AI chatbots spread Russian disinformation narratives created by John Mark Dougan, an American fugitive now operating from Moscow, citing his fake local news sites and fabricated claims on YouTube as reliable sources."
AI is a classic case of Garbage In, Garbage Out. If your input feed to the LLM is inaccurate, or racist, or stupid, then the output will tend that way as well. Because the 'AI' is not actually intelligent...
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
So in theory a majority govt could win a vote to eliminate the LOTO post and that's it? Or end PMQs presumably.
Parliament is run by conventions. They may not have legal force, but breaking them has a significant constitutional impact. If the system breaks down, a written constitution will become an urgent priority
Parliament is run by conventions, that are adaptable and evolve over time. In a situation where there are two opposition parties of similar or even the same size, Parliament could evolve its own conventions to reflect the situation. That’s my point.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I agree, that's why the salami approach to Brexit is the best approach. Thin slices until nothing is left.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
The EU were behind Yanukovych's rigging of the courts to revoke the constitution, unlawful rejection of a bill passed by the Verkhovna Rada and the decision of the police to fire on protestors?
Huge, if true.
This is the risk of Farage getting airtime on these points. It may put voters off Farage, but it also gets Russian talking points aired repeatedly.
Yes. I totally agree with you. That is what he is doing. He is back on Rt.
Thank you. One of the rare academics to come out of Salford University then. I knew someone who was on the fashion design course there. But he certainly knows how to put together a CV.
Oi. It was a top engineering university back in the day.
Back in the day it had a decent football team just down the road
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
Of course it would be better to to do that. The new goverment will say that is a bridge too far so lets improvise round the edges.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I don't know if you are in France at the moment but here on the Cote d'Azur it is more packed than I have ever known it at this time of year. Americans in particular. I wondered whether it might be some good currency exchange? It's busier now than during the Film festival and the Grand Prix.
The EU were behind Yanukovych's rigging of the courts to revoke the constitution, unlawful rejection of a bill passed by the Verkhovna Rada and the decision of the police to fire on protestors?
Huge, if true.
This is the risk of Farage getting airtime on these points. It may put voters off Farage, but it also gets Russian talking points aired repeatedly.
Yes. I totally agree with you. That is what he is doing. He is back on Rt.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
For all the talk of left and right, what Starmer really offers is a return to detail and pragmatism after years of fantasy and chasing headlines with incredible short termism. That is a far bigger, and more welcome, change than any ideological shift between left and right.
The EU were behind Yanukovych's rigging of the courts to revoke the constitution, unlawful rejection of a bill passed by the Verkhovna Rada and the decision of the police to fire on protestors?
Huge, if true.
This is the risk of Farage getting airtime on these points. It may put voters off Farage, but it also gets Russian talking points aired repeatedly.
Yes. I totally agree with you. That is what he is doing. He is back on Rt.
No one watches RT.
Not broadcast here anymore. Nige made some money from it and Galloway.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I don't know if you are in France at the moment but here on the Cote d'Azur it is more packed than I have ever known it at this time of year. Americans in particular. I wondered whether it might be some good currency exchange? It's busier now than during the Film festival and the Grand Prix.
Not at the moment, I’m in Oxford after singing in a concert last night.
Our corner of France never gets massively busy though. A few Americans there for the sites and the wine, or starting river cruises from Macon down towards the med, but nothing overwhelming.
My strangest tourist surprise recently was last summer in Ireland (Waterford). Absolutely packed with French. By far the largest national group, more than Brits or Americans.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
No it really isn't. Sorry if I didn't make myself clear on the dozen previous times I have addressed this.
This is nit a matter of my preferences but of basic EU treaty law. One of the fundamental rules of the EU, enshrined in the treaties that form it, is that no country cab be a member of the Customs Union without being a member of the EU.
There are a couple of exceptions for tiny enclaves like Monaco but even they are written into the treaties.
So you would have to require the EU to rewrite their structural treaties to change that rule. Something they simply will not do.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
You know you can edit your posts for up to 6 mins?
Sadly not on my phone. It refuses to accept the edit function.
There is another twist in this election. What if Farage appears on Tv five days before the election crying saying I love my country. I have decided to tell my supporters to vote Tory. I am standing down my candidates in any constituency that would stop the Tories from keeping their seats in parliament. Yup, I did this last time. He cries a bit more. He has a pint to calm himself. He drops the bombshell. I have had a better job offer and it pays a lot of money. So I am off. He then gets into his TR7 and says I will be back like Arnie. The car shortly bursts into flames while he is paying for his fuel in a petrol station, it had a electrical fault apparently.A helicopter arrives and picks him up by the pub next door. In a flash he is gone.
The problem is if you have decided to vote reform presumably you believe the Farage line that nothing in the UK works. So you would really have to dislike the country to vote for the party which has delivered that outcome. It is why I don’t really buy the reform voters will just drift back to the Tories line. I may be wrong but I just don’t see it as that easy.
Ok. And if they do not bother to vote at all? I cannot wait to see see the total percentage of people that vote in this election and the number for the people that did not.
The EU were behind Yanukovych's rigging of the courts to revoke the constitution, unlawful rejection of a bill passed by the Verkhovna Rada and the decision of the police to fire on protestors?
Huge, if true.
Of course it's bollocks to say the "EU fomented an illegal coup", but clearly EU involvement in Ukraine has led to catastrophe. It would obviously have been better if the EU had told Ukraine to get its extreme corruption sorted before even beginning talks, and waited until the West was actually willing to guarantee Ukrainian security.
As you can see, it's predicted to be on a knife edge between LibDem and Tory.
This lack of clarity is going to save the Tories many seats. My own South Shropshire constituency is another where both LD and Lab think they have a chance. With the opposition split it really is about whether the Tory vote collapses to a point where the tide takes one or both of the challengers over them.
FWIW I’d tend to see the LibDems as the obvious challengers in both these seats.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
San Marino and Andorra are some of the named exceptions I mentioned.
The Turkish customs union is a nightmare for them and would be even worse for us. It allows any country that has a trade agreement with the EU to export goods tariff free to Turkey but the rights are not reciprocal. So Turkey does not have tariff free access to those trade partners. That is why they announced that if the EU/US trade deal had gone ahead they would gave to abandon the EU customs union deal.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
The rejoin clamour will grow - this is likely I think. WRT politics and reality, what are the bones of a possible process. Currently the process has ended up with a trashed Tory party, and Labour dare not touch it for now. The issue trashes parties and nurtures demagogues.
Would this do at some distant point as a manifesto pledge: At least two referenda.
1) To agree to a general opening up of a talks process with EU/EEA/EFTA, with the proviso that any agreement would be the subject of referendum 2
2) Ref 2 to agree the actual text of an actual deal
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I don't know if you are in France at the moment but here on the Cote d'Azur it is more packed than I have ever known it at this time of year. Americans in particular. I wondered whether it might be some good currency exchange? It's busier now than during the Film festival and the Grand Prix.
Not at the moment, I’m in Oxford after singing in a concert last night.
Our corner of France never gets massively busy though. A few Americans there for the sites and the wine, or starting river cruises from Macon down towards the med, but nothing overwhelming.
My strangest tourist surprise recently was last summer in Ireland (Waterford). Absolutely packed with French. By far the largest national group, more than Brits or Americans.
Brexit boosted the direct Ireland to France ferry routes. Mainly for freight, but since the ferries are running anyway, they may as well sell tickets for passengers.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
I thought Farage in his interview with NR was at his most uncomfortable when being asked about his part in Brexit. 'Yes it's been a failure but it was all the Tories fault.....' The only reason it didn't get more attention was because his Russian stuff seemed even more newsworthy.
When it's chief architect says it was a pile of pants but it wasn't my fault it was the builders and the calamity is there for all to see and it's just a question of apportioning blame..... then I hardly think they need bother the electorate with a referendum to abandon it
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
So as the curtain falls on your doom casting of Labour's prospects in the UKGE you have now switched your attention to the US and the (so you say) inevitability of a Trump Presidency.
You are hardly in a position to chastise others about doomcasting.
I haven't seen such a large ammunition store taken out by a small drone before. I had thought that they had all been moved out of HIMARS range.
Good good. Every one of those explosions makes the whole Russian logistics operation more difficult, as well as destroying the ammunition which isn’t unlimited. They have already moved stores back a few times.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
I thought Farage in his interview with NR was at his most uncomfortable when being asked about his part in Brexit. 'Yes it's been a failure but it was all the Tories fault.....' The only reason it didn't get more attention was because his Russian stuff seemed even more newsworthy.
When it's chief architect says it was a pile of pants but it wasn't my fault it was the builders and the calamity is there for all to see and it's just a question of apportioning blame..... then I hardly think they need bother the electorate with a referendum to abandon it
You would say that Roger given your views on democracy have always tended towards the Soviet.
As you can see, it's predicted to be on a knife edge between LibDem and Tory.
This lack of clarity is going to save the Tories many seats. My own South Shropshire constituency is another where both LD and Lab think they have a chance. With the opposition split it really is about whether the Tory vote collapses to a point where the tide takes one or both of the challengers over them.
FWIW I’d tend to see the LibDems as the obvious challengers in both these seats.
And in the case of Newton Abbot, the two front runners are Con and Lib Dem. It's a straight choice, as they say.....
Will the Right in the U.K. continue to talk exclusively to itself after the election? Discuss.
In the short term, they won't have much of an audience anyway. All the novelty and importance will be with Starmer's new government.
People understandably mocked Hague for the carnival, baseball cap, funfair photo ops. But he was right- silly attention was preferable to the alternative, no attention at all. It was the Ed Davey approach, twenty five years ago.
I suspect that some of the more brittle members of the current Cabinet will be driven potty by the irrelevance and the need to grovel for coverage. Will Kemi Badenoch be willing to butter up a producer to get 90 seconds with Jeremy Vine before another classic from Texas?
By that criterion, Cleverly might be their best bet. He knows about staying cool while losing from his time in Lewisham and is sound on Farage. Unfortunately, I think he's not at all keen.
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Especially as it is being used to attack them
I’m stunned that the gambling commission is leaking all this stuff as well
Surely they should investigate *after* the election
I think its perfectly reasonable for the electorate to see that at every level the current party of Government has been one of fill yer boots grift.
I fully agree with that sentiment
But an investigative arm of the government shouldn’t be leaking during a campaign
As you can see, it's predicted to be on a knife edge between LibDem and Tory.
This lack of clarity is going to save the Tories many seats. My own South Shropshire constituency is another where both LD and Lab think they have a chance. With the opposition split it really is about whether the Tory vote collapses to a point where the tide takes one or both of the challengers over them.
FWIW I’d tend to see the LibDems as the obvious challengers in both these seats.
And in the case of Newton Abbot, the two front runners are Con and Lib Dem. It's a straight choice, as they say.....
I’d like to see evidence for this please? It’s not what some of the MRPs suggest and it’s not the latest feel on the ground. Best for Britain say Labour, as did Savanta yesterday.
Evidence not party politics please?
cf @IanB2 I’ve asked you please to provide the link but you haven’t yet so please do x
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
The rejoin clamour will grow - this is likely I think. WRT politics and reality, what are the bones of a possible process. Currently the process has ended up with a trashed Tory party, and Labour dare not touch it for now. The issue trashes parties and nurtures demagogues.
Would this do at some distant point as a manifesto pledge: At least two referenda.
1) To agree to a general opening up of a talks process with EU/EEA/EFTA, with the proviso that any agreement would be the subject of referendum 2
2) Ref 2 to agree the actual text of an actual deal
Gaza is more likely to fracture their base than the EU I think. And security issues more broadly.
The attention span of society today is about 12-18 months on any one issue. Which is why it's shifted Brexit/PeoplesMarch > Metoo/XR > Brexit/XR > Covid/BLM > Ukraine/JSO > GazaGazaGaza over the last 5 years.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
I thought Farage in his interview with NR was at his most uncomfortable when being asked about his part in Brexit. 'Yes it's been a failure but it was all the Tories fault.....' The only reason it didn't get more attention was because his Russian stuff seemed even more newsworthy.
When it's chief architect says it was a pile of pants but it wasn't my fault it was the builders and the calamity is there for all to see and it's just a question of apportioning blame..... then I hardly think they need bother the electorate with a referendum to abandon it
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Comments
Huge, if true.
Back in the day it had a decent football team just down the road
We will look back on the current Shadow from the sunlit Labour uplands. Almost all that happened during these years will be lumped together in the public consciousness as The Great Darkness. This will include Brexit, which will eventually be undone, economically if not politically.
No, this isn’t tongue in cheek.
For all of HY’s figure-fiddling and Leon’s hyperbole, this country is about to enact a political revolution to the Centre Left: the biggest of any of our lifetimes, unless we have a nonagenarian in our midst.
The Right will be lost for a generation. Farage & Co will do their usual flattering to deceive and the Conservative Party look for all the world as if they need 15 years to sort out what they might actually stand for.
Welcome to Labour. Like it or not, it’s going to be a very long reign.
When will they learn?
NewsGuard audit finds that 32% of the time, leading AI chatbots spread Russian disinformation narratives created by John Mark Dougan, an American fugitive now operating from Moscow, citing his fake local news sites and fabricated claims on YouTube as reliable sources."
https://www.newsguardtech.com/special-reports/generative-ai-models-mimic-russian-disinformation-cite-fake-news/
AI is a classic case of Garbage In, Garbage Out. If your input feed to the LLM is inaccurate, or racist, or stupid, then the output will tend that way as well. Because the 'AI' is not actually intelligent...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn440850elmo
Afghanistan shock Australia to keep semi-final hopes alive
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cqqqnp2q55eo
Go back to your constituencies, and prepare your CVs.
LDem gain from Con Newton Abbot
PARTY PCT. CHG.
LDem 27.8 + 5.6
Con 26.1 - 29.5
Lab 17.6 - 0.1
Ref 15.4 + 15.4
Oth 8.0 + 6.4
As you can see, it's predicted to be on a knife edge between LibDem and Tory.
I have 100/1 on her as next Tory leader, in case it's only a minibus sized Parliamentary Conservative Party.
Our corner of France never gets massively busy though. A few Americans there for the sites and the wine, or starting river cruises from Macon down towards the med, but nothing overwhelming.
My strangest tourist surprise recently was last summer in Ireland (Waterford). Absolutely packed with French. By far the largest national group, more than Brits or Americans.
This is nit a matter of my preferences but of basic EU treaty law. One of the fundamental rules of the EU, enshrined in the treaties that form it, is that no country cab be a member of the Customs Union without being a member of the EU.
There are a couple of exceptions for tiny enclaves like Monaco but even they are written into the treaties.
So you would have to require the EU to rewrite their structural treaties to change that rule. Something they simply will not do.
NEW THREAD
https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/press-and-polls/mrp-model-daily-telegraph-19-june-2024/
https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001381
LibDems have stopped campaigning in Newton Abbot whilst Labour have begun a pile on. But yes it’s knife-edge.
FWIW I’d tend to see the LibDems as the obvious challengers in both these seats.
The Turkish customs union is a nightmare for them and would be even worse for us. It allows any country that has a trade agreement with the EU to export goods tariff free to Turkey but the rights are not reciprocal. So Turkey does not have tariff free access to those trade partners. That is why they announced that if the EU/US trade deal had gone ahead they would gave to abandon the EU customs union deal.
Would this do at some distant point as a manifesto pledge: At least two referenda.
1) To agree to a general opening up of a talks process with EU/EEA/EFTA, with the proviso that any agreement would be the subject of referendum 2
2) Ref 2 to agree the actual text of an actual deal
When it's chief architect says it was a pile of pants but it wasn't my fault it was the builders and the calamity is there for all to see and it's just a question of apportioning blame..... then I hardly think they need bother the electorate with a referendum to abandon it
People understandably mocked Hague for the carnival, baseball cap, funfair photo ops. But he was right- silly attention was preferable to the alternative, no attention at all. It was the Ed Davey approach, twenty five years ago.
I suspect that some of the more brittle members of the current Cabinet will be driven potty by the irrelevance and the need to grovel for coverage. Will Kemi Badenoch be willing to butter up a producer to get 90 seconds with Jeremy Vine before another classic from Texas?
By that criterion, Cleverly might be their best bet. He knows about staying cool while losing from his time in Lewisham and is sound on Farage. Unfortunately, I think he's not at all keen.
But an investigative arm of the government shouldn’t be leaking during a campaign
Evidence not party politics please?
cf @IanB2 I’ve asked you please to provide the link but you haven’t yet so please do x
The attention span of society today is about 12-18 months on any one issue. Which is why it's shifted Brexit/PeoplesMarch > Metoo/XR > Brexit/XR > Covid/BLM > Ukraine/JSO > GazaGazaGaza over the last 5 years.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack