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The trend is not Sunak’s friend with Savanta and Opinium is no barrel of laughs

SystemSystem Posts: 11,845
edited June 22 in General
imageThe trend is not Sunak’s friend with Savanta and Opinium is no barrel of laughs – politicalbetting.com

Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20. Savanta Con numbers by week:Week 1: 27Week 2: 28Week 3: 25Week 4: 21Week 5: 19 https://t.co/EcL5722yxm

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,064
    edited June 22
    I was waiting for another post so I could go "3rd like Rishi"
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,872
    Andy_JS said:

    Election news.

    https://walthamforestecho.co.uk/2024/06/21/green-party-suspends-chingford-and-woodford-green-candidate/

    "Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate

    Chris Brody was suspended after the party found a personal blog post where he confessed to a sexual assault while on a secure mental health ward, reports Marco Marcelline"

    I see the wikipedia page now lists him as an Independent, which is a bit dodgy, it should show him as the Green but include a note about support being withdrawn, as is the case with Labour in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chingford_and_Woodford_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeenshire_North_and_Moray_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    Anabobazina said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anabobazina said:

    wooliedyed said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    @BigJohnOwls fans please explain.
    Explain that Lab are going to get less votes than 2017.

    Massive win on my only decent size bet this GE
    Fewer votes
    Sigh.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,013
    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,177
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
  • Options
    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 302
    DavidL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Might have to wait until the morning!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    DavidL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Tory terror territory!
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,064
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,872
    MustaphaMondeo said:

    kle4 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    Greens on 9 wow
    The Green support I find most difficult to explain. They are not a fringe political force, but they are not major either. I find it hard to believe all 'true' leftwing people are voting Green as Labour would not be at 40% with centre left and centre (and some centre right) alone. In the South the LDs poll better, and in most of the country the Greens are barely present even with some good local gains in the last few years.

    So how are they getting to 9%?
    I’ve been knocking. Heartened by the number of small c conservatives being positive. I like wildlife and clean rivers. They nod and talk about renationalise the rail and water. Insulate. I nod.

    I would feel bad if I didn’t think I’m sucking up more Cons and Lib Dem, than Labour left.

    I’m getting 1/2 Labour, more Green than Con, but then I smile, listen, and sympathise. I think they may be quite polite.

    Not a bit surprised by 9%.
    Interesting to hear.

    Conservatives are interesting, as there are some who are climate change deniers, but I know others who are very green indeed, so I wonder if the Greens breaking through in the Shires will change the identity or image of the party from the kind of Bristolian heartland type.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    If he's going to the historic dockyard then it's a good time to go since Victory is undergoing restoration and you can see the internal planking and structure from a little viewing deck. Mary Rose is good too but we ran out of time before we had to get the ferry.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,771
    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Might have to wait until the morning!
    Squeaky bum time if there's not any before the morning.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,064
    FPT:
    stodge said:

    Mexicanpete said:


    Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.

    She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o

    Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.

    Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.

    It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.

    Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.

    It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.

    A "Herdson moment"? Do we have any feedback from a David-like figure?
  • Options
    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 729
    I have had a leaflet from the Conservative candidate in East Worthing & Shoreham.
    A5. One side completely taken up with slogan Local Leila Vs London Labour.
    The other side has (exactly!) 100 words about what she'll do, including sorting out the A27 (Loughton had 27 years and failed) and keeping the sea clean (hmm, do you really want to remind voters about that?).

    This is a leaflet that I would put out as a token effort in a seat where my side had a paper candidate and zero chance of winning. Not a seat where my team were defending a 7500 majority. They have given up.

    Congratulations to Tom Rutland (Lab), our next MP.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,059
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
    I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,177
    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Thank goodness there is only a couple of weeks to go. We could be getting into negative numbers otherwise.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,059
    Or Grimsby or Hull
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,059
    Or Whitby
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Might have to wait until the morning!
    I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:

    First count
    First Tory win possibilities
    Potential Portillo moments
    Tory leadership contender counts
    Reform seats
    etc.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,872
    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Grim. I'm definitely predicting under 100 seats now.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    kle4 said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    kle4 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    Greens on 9 wow
    The Green support I find most difficult to explain. They are not a fringe political force, but they are not major either. I find it hard to believe all 'true' leftwing people are voting Green as Labour would not be at 40% with centre left and centre (and some centre right) alone. In the South the LDs poll better, and in most of the country the Greens are barely present even with some good local gains in the last few years.

    So how are they getting to 9%?
    I’ve been knocking. Heartened by the number of small c conservatives being positive. I like wildlife and clean rivers. They nod and talk about renationalise the rail and water. Insulate. I nod.

    I would feel bad if I didn’t think I’m sucking up more Cons and Lib Dem, than Labour left.

    I’m getting 1/2 Labour, more Green than Con, but then I smile, listen, and sympathise. I think they may be quite polite.

    Not a bit surprised by 9%.
    Interesting to hear.

    Conservatives are interesting, as there are some who are climate change deniers, but I know others who are very green indeed, so I wonder if the Greens breaking through in the Shires will change the identity or image of the party from the kind of Bristolian heartland type.
    The deniers have probably flounced off to Reform. There's always been a strong and admirable streak of conservationism in the conservative movement (which is why Teddy Roosevelt is one of my heroes). That manifests as BANANA behaviour all too often which annoys me, but I'm of glad there are plenty of Tories on Bikes.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,198
    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Ahem, that's in the thread header.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,771
    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anabobazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
    He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
    He doesn't have a vote...
    In a general?
    Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.

    *Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.

    **This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
    Plenty of criminals have the vote.

    Its prisoners who don't.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,339
    Has anyone ever seen Paul Weller and BJO oin the same room?

    https://x.com/BeckettUnite/status/1804470278031892985
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,543
    kle4 said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    kle4 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    Greens on 9 wow
    The Green support I find most difficult to explain. They are not a fringe political force, but they are not major either. I find it hard to believe all 'true' leftwing people are voting Green as Labour would not be at 40% with centre left and centre (and some centre right) alone. In the South the LDs poll better, and in most of the country the Greens are barely present even with some good local gains in the last few years.

    So how are they getting to 9%?
    I’ve been knocking. Heartened by the number of small c conservatives being positive. I like wildlife and clean rivers. They nod and talk about renationalise the rail and water. Insulate. I nod.

    I would feel bad if I didn’t think I’m sucking up more Cons and Lib Dem, than Labour left.

    I’m getting 1/2 Labour, more Green than Con, but then I smile, listen, and sympathise. I think they may be quite polite.

    Not a bit surprised by 9%.
    Interesting to hear.

    Conservatives are interesting, as there are some who are climate change deniers, but I know others who are very green indeed, so I wonder if the Greens breaking through in the Shires will change the identity or image of the party from the kind of Bristolian heartland type.
    Given the inroads they've been making into local Government, I doubt they're in particular need of an image change. They are green at a time when plenty of voters are very concerned about green stuff, and voters are presumably confident that they actually care about the green stuff as well. That's all that's really required.

    Nor, so long as they're still a small party, do they need to attempt to present a consistent stance: they can quite happily be red-green in Brighton and Bristol, and a cuddly bolthole for fed up Nimby Shire Tories in East Anglia, at the same time.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,177
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anabobazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
    He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
    He doesn't have a vote...
    In a general?
    Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.

    *Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.

    **This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
    Plenty of criminals have the vote.

    Its prisoners who don't.
    The Venn diagrams of those various groups must be fascinating.
  • Options
    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 612
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Ahem, that's in the thread header.
    The point was so good that it had to be made twice!
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,544
    Matthew Syed, of all people, on Labour:

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/like-rowling-ive-been-staunch-labour-but-fear-theyll-bend-the-knee-to-the-mob-vqjk2zdfz
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    DavidL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anabobazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
    He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
    He doesn't have a vote...
    In a general?
    Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.

    *Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.

    **This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
    Plenty of criminals have the vote.

    Its prisoners who don't.
    The Venn diagrams of those various groups must be fascinating.
    Where do we think Jeffrey Archer sits?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Ahem, that's in the thread header.
    Oops sorry, so it is.

    Still provoked a like and a few comments though ;-)
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,062
    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,819
    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
    I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
    But you’ve been to Wick.
    And possibly you.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,064
    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
    I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
    Well, as for Bradford, Rochdale, Lancaster, Derry, and Stoke on Trent, I can authoritatively say that you are not missing much.

    If you add Oldham to your list, then bring a really good brolly. It always seems to be pouring rain in Oldham. It should be Britain's cleanest town.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,668
    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    What went wrong week 2?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,142
    I feel I must object strongly to the Opinium bar chart ordering the Parties completely at random!!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,233
    solarflare said:

    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    What went wrong week 2?
    D-Day?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    Leon said:

    Or Grimsby or Hull

    I always suspected I'd travelled a bit more than you. You should get out more pal.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,996
    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
    I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
    Not bothered about the rest, but you can't consider yourself well-travelled if you haven't been to the magnificently beautiful Yorkshire Dales.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,511
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Leeds for me.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    GIN1138 said:

    solarflare said:

    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    What went wrong week 2?
    D-Day?
    Then Farridge.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,657
    There's desperate, and then there's this shit...

    @kateferguson4

    EXCL: Rishi Sunak says there are "11 days to save Britain" from a Labour government that will make the UK "less safe".

    Gloves come off in i/v as the election enters final stages.

    Says Starmer will under invest in defence, hike taxes & reverse Brexit.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1804600588115591335
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,059
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    Scott_xP said:

    There's desperate, and then there's this shit...

    @kateferguson4

    EXCL: Rishi Sunak says there are "11 days to save Britain" from a Labour government that will make the UK "less safe".

    Gloves come off in i/v as the election enters final stages.

    Says Starmer will under invest in defence, hike taxes & reverse Brexit.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1804600588115591335

    He's going to give himself a degloving injury if he keeps taking the gloves off like that.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,575
    This makes me so angry.

    40% of young wont bother to vote.


    https://x.com/AllieHBNews/status/1804581581555896343

    And then they will spend next five years complaining that the boomers get all the benefits in life and have massive pensions and got their own homes at age 25 etc etc.

    If you don't vote, then you don't get to complain imho.

  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,004
    The Tories deserve these poll ratings because of their dire record and also because their election campaign has been the worst I have be ever witnessed - unfocused, unclear, self-defeating and hapless.

    I’m pretty sure SKS doesn’t deserve 500 seats but the Tories are being deservedly punished and they’ve brought it upon themselves. Their parting gift to the country may very well be an unwieldily crazily unbalanced HOC.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,544
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Leeds for me.
    Liverpool, then Kingston. Suspect Belfast trips a few people up.

    (Belfast and NI are wonderful, by the way. Everyone should go.)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,511
    edited June 22
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anabobazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
    He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
    He doesn't have a vote...
    In a general?
    Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.

    *Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.

    **This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
    Plenty of criminals have the vote.

    Its prisoners who don't.
    Yes, unfortunately many FTSE 100 bosses will be voting.

    Despite the fact they should disqualified under two of those four headings.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,064
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    So, mid-afternoon on Friday 5th July. After a recount.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,543
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Grim. I'm definitely predicting under 100 seats now.
    Incredibly, it seems possible. Could the Tory result going to end up being (a) under 100 but still second largest party, (b) reverse 1931 (and possibly behind the Lib Dems,) (c) near extinction as per the LD massacre in 2015, or (d) Canada '93?

    I don't know, they deserve what's coming but I still harbour a 'too good to be true' feeling about the more apocalyptic predictions. Some of the Reform vote must consist of grumpy elderly ex-Tories who'll traipse home when push comes to shove - mustn't it?
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,996
    Scott_xP said:

    There's desperate, and then there's this shit...

    @kateferguson4

    EXCL: Rishi Sunak says there are "11 days to save Britain" from a Labour government that will make the UK "less safe".

    Gloves come off in i/v as the election enters final stages.

    Says Starmer will under invest in defence, hike taxes & reverse Brexit.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1804600588115591335

    "11 days to say goodbye to Rishi".
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,339
    Northern_Al said:

    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
    I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
    Not bothered about the rest, but you can't consider yourself well-travelled if you haven't been to the magnificently beautiful Yorkshire Dales.
    They are lovely.

    Very quiet with plenty of distance from overbearing Yorkshire people!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,511
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
    Leicester was unexpectedly charming when I went on a visit the other week. Some decent architecture and the cathedral may have been small but it was handsome.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    edited June 22
    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Belfast, Nottingham, Stoke
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,433
    bigjohnowls said:

    Has anyone ever seen Paul Weller and BJO oin the same room?

    https://x.com/BeckettUnite/status/1804470278031892985

    If it has indeed been fifty years since a non-Tory type party won a general election, perhaps this is a sign that aspiring general election winners should attempt to be a Tory type party.
  • Options
    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 612
    Beibheirli_C said:

    FPT:

    stodge said:

    Mexicanpete said:


    Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.

    She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o

    Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.

    Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.

    It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.

    Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.

    It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.

    A "Herdson moment"? Do we have any feedback from a David-like figure?
    I think Lab (rightly) refuse to let themselves believe it. I think an awful lot of Cons absolutely believe this is what is heading towards them. Some put o a brave face - rather more seem to have given up already
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,016
    I've just been watching a programme called 'Newscast' on BBC News - today their guest was Laura Kuensberg. She really is wasted doing what she does currently - something like the Andrew Neil 'This Week' vehicle has to be the way forwards for her.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,771
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Grim. I'm definitely predicting under 100 seats now.
    Incredibly, it seems possible. Could the Tory result going to end up being (a) under 100 but still second largest party, (b) reverse 1931 (and possibly behind the Lib Dems,) (c) near extinction as per the LD massacre in 2015, or (d) Canada '93?

    I don't know, they deserve what's coming but I still harbour a 'too good to be true' feeling about the more apocalyptic predictions. Some of the Reform vote must consist of grumpy elderly ex-Tories who'll traipse home when push comes to shove - mustn't it?
    I've suggested reverse 1931 for a while, still think its probable.

    Sunak and the party today is just that bad.

    When I'm voting Labour, that should set off alarm bells.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,544
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
    Leicester was unexpectedly charming when I went on a visit the other week. Some decent architecture and the cathedral may have been small but it was handsome.
    Peterborough cathedral's pretty nice.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,062
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
    Leicester was unexpectedly charming when I went on a visit the other week. Some decent architecture and the cathedral may have been small but it was handsome.
    I’m a graduate (distance learning LLM) of the University of Leicester but have only been there 3 times.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,771
    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
    Leicester was unexpectedly charming when I went on a visit the other week. Some decent architecture and the cathedral may have been small but it was handsome.
    Peterborough cathedral's pretty nice.
    Not as good as Salisbury's according to Farage who is arranging a visit there.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Leeds for me.
    Birmingham. Driven through it but never stopped. Have been to the more depressing bit of Wolverhampton when I had to come off the M6 to avoid a huge queue from an accident.

    Incidentally, it shows the old argument that the UK is missing two cities in its population distribution. Most countries have a second city half the size of the first, then a couple of cities half the size of the second. France and Germany both have this pattern. Japan is similar in that Tokyo is so much more massive than any other conurbation.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,198
    Feck.

    Former England bowler and Gloucestershire president David Lawrence diagnosed with MND

    First British-born black man to play for his country is the latest, retired athlete to develop cruel degenerative disease

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/21/david-lawrence-diagnosed-mnd-england-gloucestershire/
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,575
    bigjohnowls said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
    I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
    Not bothered about the rest, but you can't consider yourself well-travelled if you haven't been to the magnificently beautiful Yorkshire Dales.
    They are lovely.

    Very quiet with plenty of distance from overbearing Yorkshire people!
    Let's not encourage Leon to visit the Yorkshire Dales.

    Otherwise there'll be breathless posts about being on his third pint of Old Peculier and "who knew sheep are astonishingly beautiful in dappled late summer evening sunlight" etc.


  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,365
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
    Leicester was unexpectedly charming when I went on a visit the other week. Some decent architecture and the cathedral may have been small but it was handsome.
    Peterborough cathedral's pretty nice.
    Not as good as Salisbury's according to Farage who is arranging a visit there.
    According to my Labour (suspended) candidate, that means Farage is a UK intelligence asset.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,575
    Northern_Al said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There's desperate, and then there's this shit...

    @kateferguson4

    EXCL: Rishi Sunak says there are "11 days to save Britain" from a Labour government that will make the UK "less safe".

    Gloves come off in i/v as the election enters final stages.

    Says Starmer will under invest in defence, hike taxes & reverse Brexit.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1804600588115591335

    "11 days to say goodbye to Rishi".
    "gloves come off"

    LOL.

    Did his hands come off with them as well?
  • Options
    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 612
    Opinium and UNS leave the Cons on 105 seats. Factor in tactical voting and differential swings and you are looking at as low as 60 or 65. Just a couple of defections or by-elections away from Sir Ed as Leader of the Opposition.

    Ladies and gentlemen if this is anything near reality then we are through the looking glass
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,511
    OnboardG1 said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Leeds for me.
    Birmingham. Driven through it but never stopped. Have been to the more depressing bit of Wolverhampton when I had to come off the M6 to avoid a huge queue from an accident.

    Incidentally, it shows the old argument that the UK is missing two cities in its population distribution. Most countries have a second city half the size of the first, then a couple of cities half the size of the second. France and Germany both have this pattern. Japan is similar in that Tokyo is so much more massive than any other conurbation.
    Birmingham is worth a visit (Wolverhampton rather less so). The buildings won't win many prizes but there's a buzz and energy about the place that's infectious. Plus, there's lots of interesting stuff to do - enough to satisfy the most finicky tastes.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,062
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
    It’s nothing special admittedly but it’s underrated as a city. I’ve seen a lot worse.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,059
    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Bristol and Cardiff both totally worth it. I really like Bristol. It’s eccentric and marred but has truly beautiful moments - Clifton, the gorge. Cardiff is strange but has a swagger and the waterfront and the bay are great

    I’m now passing HMS Prince of wales - massive

    And Portsmouth is really dramatic. Probably a shit place to live but definitely got tons of character and history
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,575
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    @robfordmancs
    Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.

    Savanta Con numbers by week:
    Week 1: 27
    Week 2: 28
    Week 3: 25
    Week 4: 21
    Week 5: 19

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1804583171792552426

    Grim. I'm definitely predicting under 100 seats now.
    Incredibly, it seems possible. Could the Tory result going to end up being (a) under 100 but still second largest party, (b) reverse 1931 (and possibly behind the Lib Dems,) (c) near extinction as per the LD massacre in 2015, or (d) Canada '93?

    I don't know, they deserve what's coming but I still harbour a 'too good to be true' feeling about the more apocalyptic predictions. Some of the Reform vote must consist of grumpy elderly ex-Tories who'll traipse home when push comes to shove - mustn't it?
    I still think on the morning of the GE the tory vote will wake up and decide not to risk a Labour landslide and come home very very late in the day.

    They'll lose. But not like the polls predict.

    But maybe I am just unable to compute what is about to happen???
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 533
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    I’m just going through the wiki list!

    Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough

    Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
    Leicester was unexpectedly charming when I went on a visit the other week. Some decent architecture and the cathedral may have been small but it was handsome.
    I’m a graduate (distance learning LLM) of the University of Leicester but have only been there 3 times.
    Reminds me of the Private Eye cover. Headline Thatcher Visits Inner City, photo Maggie looking through those penny in the slot binoculars with speech bubble "This is quite close enough, thank you.'
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,371
    edited June 22
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Quick quiz question:

    Which two places in the list share the same name?

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,064
    edited June 22
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    FPT:

    stodge said:

    Mexicanpete said:


    Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.

    She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o

    Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.

    Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.

    It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.

    Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.

    It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.

    A "Herdson moment"? Do we have any feedback from a David-like figure?
    I think Lab (rightly) refuse to let themselves believe it. I think an awful lot of Cons absolutely believe this is what is heading towards them. Some put o a brave face - rather more seem to have given up already
    My personal view is that the Tories will be below 100 seats, but I worry about Farage. If the price of keeping Farage out is more than 100 Tory seats then I can live with that. It also would not hurt to reduce the Labour victory a bit although it will make no difference in practical terms.

  • Options
    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 612
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    The first Tory seat held could double as the next Con leadership election if they keep going the way they have
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,142
    I guess I'm the only one here who's done the new Blackpool North station tram extension (pic posted earlier today) AND the newly re-opened Leven branch in Fife.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,059
    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 533
    Benpointer said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Quick quiz question:

    Which two places in the list share the same name?

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Bangor
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,544
    Benpointer said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Quick quiz question:

    Which two places in the list share the same name?

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Cambridge?
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Clutch_Brompton said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    FPT:

    stodge said:

    Mexicanpete said:


    Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.

    She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o

    Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.

    Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.

    It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.

    Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.

    It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.

    A "Herdson moment"? Do we have any feedback from a David-like figure?
    I think Lab (rightly) refuse to let themselves believe it. I think an awful lot of Cons absolutely believe this is what is heading towards them. Some put o a brave face - rather more seem to have given up already
    My personal view is that the Tories will be below 100 seats, but I worry about Farage. If the price of keeping Farage out is more than 100 Tory seats then I can live with that. It also would not hurt to reduce the Labour victory a bit although it will make no difference in practical terms.

    If I had the choice between Farage and 50 Tories and 150 Tories and no Farage, then I would happily take the Tories.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,511
    Tweedledee said:

    Benpointer said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Quick quiz question:

    Which two places in the list share the same name?

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Bangor
    In Dee'd.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,062
    Benpointer said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Quick quiz question:

    Which two places in the list share the same name?

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Ashford (I know this because I live near the Kent version)
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,543
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    Opinium and UNS leave the Cons on 105 seats. Factor in tactical voting and differential swings and you are looking at as low as 60 or 65. Just a couple of defections or by-elections away from Sir Ed as Leader of the Opposition.

    Ladies and gentlemen if this is anything near reality then we are through the looking glass

    Moreover, you can imagine a rump Tory party shattering into pieces like the old Liberals. The recriminations after an epochal defeat will be quite something, and not nearly all the survivors in ultra-safe seats are going to share the likely diagnosis of the shellshocked party membership, i.e. that Sunak lost so badly because he wasn't right wing enough.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,489
    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,797
    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Belfast, Sale, Derry.

    You go most everywhere as a twitcher. But still never NI.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Bristol and Cardiff both totally worth it. I really like Bristol. It’s eccentric and marred but has truly beautiful moments - Clifton, the gorge. Cardiff is strange but has a swagger and the waterfront and the bay are great

    I’m now passing HMS Prince of wales - massive

    And Portsmouth is really dramatic. Probably a shit place to live but definitely got tons of character and history
    Does it still look like it has beer tents on the flight deck? I'm aware they're probably there to cover up sensitive stuff from snooping but I thought they were hosting a real ale festival next to the control tower when I was there.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,064
    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Bristol and Cardiff both totally worth it. I really like Bristol. It’s eccentric and marred but has truly beautiful moments - Clifton, the gorge. Cardiff is strange but has a swagger and the waterfront and the bay are great

    I’m now passing HMS Prince of wales - massive

    And Portsmouth is really dramatic. Probably a shit place to live but definitely got tons of character and history
    I have not been any further southwest than Gloucester so the whole of Somerset, Devon, Cornwall etc are still on my list.

    Cardiff I never considered. I did get to Port Talbot once and that was enough to stop me visiting any more towns in SE Wales, especially after I added Swansea to the list. Admittedly it was in the 1980s so maybe it has improved since then.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,059
    MarqueeMark said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Belfast, Sale, Derry.

    You go most everywhere as a twitcher. But still never NI.
    Northern Ireland is lovely - despite its reputation and despite some depressing weather and towns. Belfast is fascinating with a spectacular location and the coast and countryside are lush
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,433
    OnboardG1 said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Leeds for me.
    Birmingham. Driven through it but never stopped. Have been to the more depressing bit of Wolverhampton when I had to come off the M6 to avoid a huge queue from an accident.

    Incidentally, it shows the old argument that the UK is missing two cities in its population distribution. Most countries have a second city half the size of the first, then a couple of cities half the size of the second. France and Germany both have this pattern. Japan is similar in that Tokyo is so much more massive than any other conurbation.
    Hang on - Germany perhaps - albeit it has a unique history of unifying and splitting and unifying again. But Paris is your classic preeminent overweening Jupiterian Great Wen.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,062
    Benpointer said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Quick quiz question:

    Which two places in the list share the same name?

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    There are two Ashfords (Kent and Surrey) and 2 Bangors (Wales and NI)
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,097
    Benpointer said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Belfast, Nottingham, Stoke
    I have travelled through Leeds, Sheffield and Liverpool but never "visited" them.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,438
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    Opinium and UNS leave the Cons on 105 seats. Factor in tactical voting and differential swings and you are looking at as low as 60 or 65. Just a couple of defections or by-elections away from Sir Ed as Leader of the Opposition.

    Ladies and gentlemen if this is anything near reality then we are through the looking glass

    Really, we've been trapped in the looking glass for a few years now. Certainly since the Truss fever dream, probably since the rise of Boris. (Even the pre-Covid stuff didn't really make sense. Not really.)

    The General Election electoral reality just happens to be the last shoe to drop.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,543
    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    Behind the SNP? Con sub-20?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,131
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    Opinium and UNS leave the Cons on 105 seats. Factor in tactical voting and differential swings and you are looking at as low as 60 or 65. Just a couple of defections or by-elections away from Sir Ed as Leader of the Opposition.

    Ladies and gentlemen if this is anything near reality then we are through the looking glass

    My pitch on the doorstep has evolved. This is now about choosing the opposition to Labour. And poll after poll is showing that it could be the LibDems.

    Voters move in packs. As we’ve talked about, the dyke has burst to make it acceptable for Tory voters to flood to Reform. And it appears the same it’s voters coming back to us. We’re not a wasted vote, we’re a legitimate challenge
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,572
    DougSeal said:

    Benpointer said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    Quick quiz question:

    Which two places in the list share the same name?

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    There are two Ashfords (Kent and Surrey) and 2 Bangors (Wales and NI)
    Three Newports on the list two (four if we're counting Newport Pagnell). Sadly Newport Essex doesn't quite make the list.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,263
    ...
    Leon said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Bristol and Cardiff both totally worth it. I really like Bristol. It’s eccentric and marred but has truly beautiful moments - Clifton, the gorge. Cardiff is strange but has a swagger and the waterfront and the bay are great

    I’m now passing HMS Prince of wales - massive

    And Portsmouth is really dramatic. Probably a shit place to live but definitely got tons of character and history
    Didn't that poster Eadric spent COVID overlooking Cardiff Bay. It's a shame he no longer posts, we could ask for a review.

    Portsmouth is great. When my son was at Uni we bought a house in Fratton. Fratton is a bit of a dump, but not far from Southsea which is buzzing.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,498
    Scott_xP said:

    There's desperate, and then there's this shit...

    @kateferguson4

    EXCL: Rishi Sunak says there are "11 days to save Britain" from a Labour government that will make the UK "less safe".

    Gloves come off in i/v as the election enters final stages.

    Says Starmer will under invest in defence, hike taxes & reverse Brexit.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1804600588115591335

    Unhinged nonsense from Sunak . And why is Sunak still droning on about Brexit . We had that election in 2019 !
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,365
    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    Who's beating them in seats? Labour, Lib Dems and... SNP? Reform??
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