I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
Seriously? I still think they could get 120-130.
3rd behind Ref in votes?
4th behind LDs and who else in seats?
Thanks Sean.
Either behind Reform or SNP in seats. This election is the Conservatives’ end.
I think they will end up in 3rd place with votes (behind Labour and Reform) but a decent second place in seats.
I despair if Reform come second in votes.
Not to do a Liz Truss, but that would be a disgrace.
Oh I would share your despair but I am a realist. The other parties, particularly the Tories, have made such a mess of everything over the last 3 decades that people will look elsewhere. Left, Right, whatever. But they are abandoning the centre.
I don't think they are abandoning the centre, they're coalescing around one major party in the centre.
The fruitcakes, nuts and loons of Reform are only going to be second, in the sad event they are, because of the failure of any other party to be able to come second, not because they've done exceptionally well.
Thats a kind of a daft comment. All parties do well, in part, because of the failings of their opponents. Labour are doing well now, not because they have done anything particularly well, but because their opponents have done particularly badly. It was ever thus.
And yes, Trump, Reform, Corbynism and the rise of the right wing parties in Europe, are all a result of the failure of the established parties to actually work for the electorate. That in no way says that these extremists will do any better, just that they have been provided with an opportunity and are devious enough to take it.
They (the extremists) pretend to be addressing the legitimate concerns of the electorate but at the same time bring a whole heap of other baggage in terms of corruption, ideology and lack of respect for democratic processes with them. By the time they get to the Trump stage it is too late to stop them without a lot of heartache. What needs to happen is for the established parties to realise they are disconnected from the electorate and do something about that before it gets to that point.
I'm not sure what you thought was daft since none of what you said contradicted any of what I said. Indeed I agree with what you said.
The positive though is that if Reform are second on say 18% or 19% as seems quite possible then it's not because most voters have abandoned the centre, it's just that they've abandoned the Tories.
Although Reform might be second on that share, it'd be second on a share less than the Lib Dems have achieved before and nobody would have thought them as the second party at the time.
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
If Reform do well, a possible outcome is that the Conservative party disintegrates, with the right-wing going to Reform and the left merging with the LDs, who might then go on to become the new centre-right party. FPTP makes it difficult to have anything other than a duopoly, and probably only around 25% of the UK population have an appetite for the post-truth policies espoused by Reform. So we end up with an LD/Con vs Labour duopoly with Reform/Con agitating on the right.
No, we would end up with Reform/Con v Starmer Labour and probably PM Farage within a decade under FPTP.
Even on tonight's Opinium Reform plus Con combined are on 36% to 40% for Labour with the LDs on just 12% and the vast majority of current Tory voters and members would join with Reform rather than the LDs. Especially when much of what was in the Reform manifesto was traditional Conservative in flavour while the LD manifesto was largely reheated social democracy
In ten years time Farage will be over 70. Neither is he the kind who can be constructive. He will not be able to be more than a gadfly in the House of Commons, and there is considerable potential for scandal. RefUK is not going to have an easy ride.
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
If Reform do well, a possible outcome is that the Conservative party disintegrates, with the right-wing going to Reform and the left merging with the LDs, who might then go on to become the new centre-right party. FPTP makes it difficult to have anything other than a duopoly, and probably only around 25% of the UK population have an appetite for the post-truth policies espoused by Reform. So we end up with an LD/Con vs Labour duopoly with Reform/Con agitating on the right.
No, we would end up with Reform/Con v Starmer Labour and probably PM Farage within a decade under FPTP.
Even on tonight's Opinium Reform plus Con combined are on 36% to 40% for Labour with the LDs on just 12% and the vast majority of current Tory voters and members would join with Reform rather than the LDs. Especially when much of what was in the Reform manifesto was traditional Conservative in flavour while the LD manifesto was largely reheated social democracy
In ten years time Farage will be over 70. Neither is he the kind who can be constructive. He will not be able to be more than a gadfly in the House of Commons, and there is considerable potential for scandal. RefUK is not going to have an easy ride.
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
So in theory a majority govt could win a vote to eliminate the LOTO post and that's it? Or end PMQs presumably.
Parliament is run by conventions. They may not have legal force, but breaking them has a significant constitutional impact. If the system breaks down, a written constitution will become an urgent priority
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
So in theory a majority govt could win a vote to eliminate the LOTO post and that's it? Or end PMQs presumably.
Parliament is run by conventions. They may not have legal force, but breaking them has a significant constitutional impact. If the system breaks down, a written constitution will become an urgent priority
Imagine someone Farage with a subservient party, and parliamentary majority on less than 40% of the vote, courtesy of FPTP. Not inconceivable, should it go pear shaped for Labour in government.
We have remarkably few checks and balances when it comes to the exercise of political power, other than the temper of our politics.
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
Even more remarkably they were so busy placing their bets they were totally unprepared for the election & never considered they'd definitely be caught. Not only are they endemically bent, they're also stupid *and* completely useless.
As someone says in that thread, the Tories have (had?) a Data Officer who never considered that betting companies might have analytics they use to spot suspicious betting patterns.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
Groups of teachers, parents and charities were allowed to start schools in old offices, shops and houses regardless of whether local authorities believed they were needed.
More than 650 are open, with more understood to be looking for premises. In many cases, the costs of opening the school have spiralled upwards.
Latest figures from the Department for Education show five free schools cost more than £30m each, while the National Audit Office found 24 free school sites had cost over £10m each.
Experts say there may be more shocks to come, because the government has taken years to reveal the capital costs of some free schools and has failed to publish any data on capital costs for more than four years...
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
A report last week by the LSE found that the trade and cooperation agreement signed on 30 December 2020 by then prime minister Boris Johnson had “reduced exports to the EU by around 30% for small firms” and “perhaps around 20,000 small firms have stopped exporting goods to the EU entirely”.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
A report last week by the LSE found that the trade and cooperation agreement signed on 30 December 2020 by then prime minister Boris Johnson had “reduced exports to the EU by around 30% for small firms” and “perhaps around 20,000 small firms have stopped exporting goods to the EU entirely”.
"...“We are not rejoining the EU, we are not rejoining the single market or the customs union,” the Labour leader said.
Asked if he would ever reconsider this, he added: “No. It isn’t our plan, it never has been..."
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
The main significance of this Farage/Russia thing is going to be some voters switching back from Reform to the tories.
FWIW I was planning to abstain this time around (The Tories are useless, Labour are not being straight with us and the local LibDem wants to relitigate Brexit).
But given the risk that Reform might end up as the leading party of right, I reluctantly voted Tory. It won’t make any difference here - we will continue to have a Labour MP - but it might help stave off Reform on a national basis.
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Especially as it is being used to attack them
I’m stunned that the gambling commission is leaking all this stuff as well
Surely they should investigate *after* the election
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
A report last week by the LSE found that the trade and cooperation agreement signed on 30 December 2020 by then prime minister Boris Johnson had “reduced exports to the EU by around 30% for small firms” and “perhaps around 20,000 small firms have stopped exporting goods to the EU entirely”.
"...“We are not rejoining the EU, we are not rejoining the single market or the customs union,” the Labour leader said.
Asked if he would ever reconsider this, he added: “No. It isn’t our plan, it never has been..."
Reeves in the FT says Labour is willing to “upset some people” by pushing for “greater mutual recognition” and “a new regulatory system” closer to the EU.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
The main significance of this Farage/Russia thing is going to be some voters switching back from Reform to the tories.
FWIW I was planning to abstain this time around (The Tories are useless, Labour are not being straight with us and the local LibDem wants to relitigate Brexit).
But given the risk that Reform might end up as the leading party of right, I reluctantly voted Tory. It won’t make any difference here - we will continue to have a Labour MP - but it might help stave off Reform on a national basis.
How will it ‘stave off Reform on a national basis’?
If you want to vote Tory, of course it is your perfect right to do so, but don’t pretend that you are doing so for some higher national purpose.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
The main significance of this Farage/Russia thing is going to be some voters switching back from Reform to the tories.
FWIW I was planning to abstain this time around (The Tories are useless, Labour are not being straight with us and the local LibDem wants to relitigate Brexit).
But given the risk that Reform might end up as the leading party of right, I reluctantly voted Tory. It won’t make any difference here - we will continue to have a Labour MP - but it might help stave off Reform on a national basis.
How will it ‘stave off Reform on a national basis’?
I get the logic. The intent is to have the Tories outpoll Reform both locally and in the popular vote nationally. . It's pretty much @Big_G_NorthWales position. While it has little effect electorally in FPTP it has some effect on how parties react to election results afterwards.
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Especially as it is being used to attack them
I’m stunned that the gambling commission is leaking all this stuff as well
Surely they should investigate *after* the election
So they are now trying to make out, the reason Rishi has taken sooooo long to suspend them from party and as candidates is because he actually can’t?
I’m calling that out. Is there no end to their gaslighting us? Of course he flipping can. And the longer they leave it, the more damage it’s doing, not least the campaign space it’s taking up waiting for him to suspend them pending enquiry thus drawing some sort of line under it.
Isn’t this typical. They know they have messed up taking too long for suspensions, so they make themselves look even more ridiculous concocting this garbage that somehow they can’t suspend party members under third party investigation.
Partygate was identical with the interminable “can’t act or answer a question, an investigations going on.” Not a single lesson learned. Unreal.
Groups of teachers, parents and charities were allowed to start schools in old offices, shops and houses regardless of whether local authorities believed they were needed.
More than 650 are open, with more understood to be looking for premises. In many cases, the costs of opening the school have spiralled upwards.
Latest figures from the Department for Education show five free schools cost more than £30m each, while the National Audit Office found 24 free school sites had cost over £10m each.
Experts say there may be more shocks to come, because the government has taken years to reveal the capital costs of some free schools and has failed to publish any data on capital costs for more than four years...
Such egregious waste of public funds on such pointless projects suggests that squaring the circle of improving public services on the same budget is not impossible at all.
Whether Labour can do it or will just waste money on its own ideological white elephants is yet to be seen.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
The main significance of this Farage/Russia thing is going to be some voters switching back from Reform to the tories.
FWIW I was planning to abstain this time around (The Tories are useless, Labour are not being straight with us and the local LibDem wants to relitigate Brexit).
But given the risk that Reform might end up as the leading party of right, I reluctantly voted Tory. It won’t make any difference here - we will continue to have a Labour MP - but it might help stave off Reform on a national basis.
How will it ‘stave off Reform on a national basis’?
If you want to vote Tory, of course it is your perfect right to do so, but don’t pretend that you are doing so for some higher national purpose.
That’s a weirdly snide response
The Tories will lose this election. My vote won’t change that
I don’t think it is in the country’s interests for Reform to be the dominant party of the right. So I am reluctantly voting Tory as the Tories having more votes than Reform may help. If there was no risk of Reform replacing the Tories I would abstain.
Whether you define that as a “higher national purpose” is up to you I guess.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
The main significance of this Farage/Russia thing is going to be some voters switching back from Reform to the tories.
FWIW I was planning to abstain this time around (The Tories are useless, Labour are not being straight with us and the local LibDem wants to relitigate Brexit).
But given the risk that Reform might end up as the leading party of right, I reluctantly voted Tory. It won’t make any difference here - we will continue to have a Labour MP - but it might help stave off Reform on a national basis.
How will it ‘stave off Reform on a national basis’?
If you want to vote Tory, of course it is your perfect right to do so, but don’t pretend that you are doing so for some higher national purpose.
That’s a weirdly snide response
The Tories will lose this election. My vote won’t change that
I don’t think it is in the country’s interests for Reform to be the dominant party of the right. So I am reluctantly voting Tory as the Tories having more votes than Reform may help. If there was no risk of Reform replacing the Tories I would abstain.
Whether you define that as a “higher national purpose” is up to you I guess.
Ok apols if it came across as snide.
I just don’t get how the Tories having more votes than Reform will help.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago.
Ridiculous comment.
Sorry.
It cheered me up tbh. If @MoonRabbit is convinced Biden has lost, Trump is surely toast.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
So as the curtain falls on your doom casting of Labour's prospects in the UKGE you have now switched your attention to the US and the (so you say) inevitability of a Trump Presidency.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Not sure what you mean by too far behind weeks ago - the voting hasn't started yet. On current polling it would be very close with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all neck and neck. Biden's disadvantage is that he needs to win all 3 (plus Nebraska 2nd district) in order to get 270 electoral votes. On the plus side you could make reasonable arguments for Biden's polling to improve the closer we get to the election.
Trump is favourite in the betting, but not overwhelmingly. If you really think Trump has already won you could make a very good return
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
This is the nastiest incarnation of the Tory Party most people can remember-not me I'd give it to Thatcher 1987-and they're fiddling about whether to fire people who have been given inside information and tried to make a killing out of it. Meanwhile we have the totally grotesque figure of Nigel Farage coming up on the outside.
We are in the middle of a sleazefest. Most people just want it to end. Anyone voting Tory or Farage has a morality problem or a screw loose
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
If Reform do well, a possible outcome is that the Conservative party disintegrates, with the right-wing going to Reform and the left merging with the LDs, who might then go on to become the new centre-right party. FPTP makes it difficult to have anything other than a duopoly, and probably only around 25% of the UK population have an appetite for the post-truth policies espoused by Reform. So we end up with an LD/Con vs Labour duopoly with Reform/Con agitating on the right.
PM Farage within a decade under FPTP.
It will never happen in this country.
Not a prediction but a statement of fact.
HY, I generally like you and your more moderate Conservatism - although you are still far right of where your Party needs to be to regain power - but your recent number totting is your weakest link to date.
You can’t just bung Conservative and Reform voters together and produce a magic wand total out of it. I’m not here to counsel how the Conservatives come back into contention but the fact that you so fundamentally misunderstand the grievances of both centrist AND right wing voters leads me to think you ain’t comin’ back any time soon.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
So as the curtain falls on your doom casting of Labour's prospects in the UKGE you have now switched your attention to the US and the (so you say) inevitability of a Trump Presidency.
Yes iirc weren’t we told that Labour’s VAT on private schools policy was about to see their collapse?
We all get things wrong, and sometimes a few things right.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
On health events, the MSM is now moving on from "Biden has dementia" to "Trump REALLY has dementia". A guy who wrote a book about him said Trump had no recollection of meeting him 6 weeks before to go over the content. He had to start from scratch.
IF Trump turns up to the debate next week - and lots of ground being covered for why he might not - then any stumble by either is going to be analysed to death. A weird performance by Trump - another death by shark versus electrocution meander for example - and the spotlight is on his fast fade to oblivion.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
So as the curtain falls on your doom casting of Labour's prospects in the UKGE you have now switched your attention to the US and the (so you say) inevitability of a Trump Presidency.
Yes iirc weren’t we told that Labour’s VAT on private schools policy was about to see their collapse?
We all get things wrong, and sometimes a few things right.
Perhaps the influx of private pupils to state schools will save those empty academy schools.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
I have heard a fair bit of commentary about political polling in the US, and that it might be way out of whack with the reality on the ground. Both sides seem to think the disparity favours them, though...
I know who I want to win in both the UK and US elections. I think my UK hunch will turn out correct; I have zero idea about the US one. If either candidate wins, I would not be surprised the way thing stand.
For the record, I so fundamentally disagree with all the candidates standing in my constituency that, on July 4th, I will do my civic duty, walk down to the polling station, register my vote and then spoil my ballot.
I will then sit back and watch with macabre fascination (and a bottle of Somerset Cider Brandy) as the election night plays out. Hopefully in the company of many of you on PB.
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
So in theory a majority govt could win a vote to eliminate the LOTO post and that's it? Or end PMQs presumably.
Parliament is run by conventions. They may not have legal force, but breaking them has a significant constitutional impact. If the system breaks down, a written constitution will become an urgent priority
Imagine someone Farage with a subservient party, and parliamentary majority on less than 40% of the vote, courtesy of FPTP. Not inconceivable, should it go pear shaped for Labour in government.
We have remarkably few checks and balances when it comes to the exercise of political power, other than the temper of our politics.
Which is why, as part of a serious overhaul of our Victorian political system, I think a written constitution and a fair voting system is overdue. It is a major part of why I am a Liberal Democrat.
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
So in theory a majority govt could win a vote to eliminate the LOTO post and that's it? Or end PMQs presumably.
Parliament is run by conventions. They may not have legal force, but breaking them has a significant constitutional impact. If the system breaks down, a written constitution will become an urgent priority
Imagine someone Farage with a subservient party, and parliamentary majority on less than 40% of the vote, courtesy of FPTP. Not inconceivable, should it go pear shaped for Labour in government.
We have remarkably few checks and balances when it comes to the exercise of political power, other than the temper of our politics.
Which is why, as part of a serious overhaul of our Victorian political system, I think a written constitution and a fair voting system is overdue. It is a major part of why I am a Liberal Democrat.
Except who writes the constitution and who is the electoral system fair for?
any thoughts onto how the collapsing Blue vote translates into LD seats in the south, my sense is the Tories will do better than people think (in seat terms) as a huge fall in Tory votes (in all directions) means that they may well hang on in all sorts of places with 30%-35% of the vote... so I would err towards 150 seats rather than the sub-100 club
It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.
Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken
I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.
Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”
This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.
Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.
Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.
So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
The main significance of this Farage/Russia thing is going to be some voters switching back from Reform to the tories.
FWIW I was planning to abstain this time around (The Tories are useless, Labour are not being straight with us and the local LibDem wants to relitigate Brexit).
But given the risk that Reform might end up as the leading party of right, I reluctantly voted Tory. It won’t make any difference here - we will continue to have a Labour MP - but it might help stave off Reform on a national basis.
How will it ‘stave off Reform on a national basis’?
If you want to vote Tory, of course it is your perfect right to do so, but don’t pretend that you are doing so for some higher national purpose.
That’s a weirdly snide response
The Tories will lose this election. My vote won’t change that
I don’t think it is in the country’s interests for Reform to be the dominant party of the right. So I am reluctantly voting Tory as the Tories having more votes than Reform may help. If there was no risk of Reform replacing the Tories I would abstain.
Whether you define that as a “higher national purpose” is up to you I guess.
Ok apols if it came across as snide.
I just don’t get how the Tories having more votes than Reform will help.
Assuming that C+R is 30% of the vote
If that is 25/5 in favour of the Tories then it is a very different future than if it is 15/15 or 10/20 in favour of Reform
If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
If Reform do well, a possible outcome is that the Conservative party disintegrates, with the right-wing going to Reform and the left merging with the LDs, who might then go on to become the new centre-right party. FPTP makes it difficult to have anything other than a duopoly, and probably only around 25% of the UK population have an appetite for the post-truth policies espoused by Reform. So we end up with an LD/Con vs Labour duopoly with Reform/Con agitating on the right.
No, we would end up with Reform/Con v Starmer Labour and probably PM Farage within a decade under FPTP.
Even on tonight's Opinium Reform plus Con combined are on 36% to 40% for Labour with the LDs on just 12% and the vast majority of current Tory voters and members would join with Reform rather than the LDs. Especially when much of what was in the Reform manifesto was traditional Conservative in flavour while the LD manifesto was largely reheated social democracy
In ten years time Farage will be over 70. Neither is he the kind who can be constructive. He will not be able to be more than a gadfly in the House of Commons, and there is considerable potential for scandal. RefUK is not going to have an easy ride.
It's always interesting to hear HYUFD's lines as they are generally expressed far more clearly than the useless ministers central office send out on the media run.
This is probably their most effective of the election, and it will, IMHO, save them a few seats. Personally I think it is absolute hogwash - but a more palpable fear than attempting to demonize the current incarnation of Labour.
Thank you. One of the rare academics to come out of Salford University then. I knew someone who was on the fashion design course there. But he certainly knows how to put together a CV.
Opinium and UNS leave the Cons on 105 seats. Factor in tactical voting and differential swings and you are looking at as low as 60 or 65. Just a couple of defections or by-elections away from Sir Ed as Leader of the Opposition.
Ladies and gentlemen if this is anything near reality then we are through the looking glass
My pitch on the doorstep has evolved. This is now about choosing the opposition to Labour. And poll after poll is showing that it could be the LibDems.
Voters move in packs. As we’ve talked about, the dyke has burst to make it acceptable for Tory voters to flood to Reform. And it appears the same it’s voters coming back to us. We’re not a wasted vote, we’re a legitimate challenge
Anyone voting for a party led by that weapon ACH needs their head looking at.
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Especially as it is being used to attack them
I’m stunned that the gambling commission is leaking all this stuff as well
Surely they should investigate *after* the election
So they are now trying to make out, the reason Rishi has taken sooooo long to suspend them from party and as candidates is because he actually can’t?
I’m calling that out. Is there no end to their gaslighting us? Of course he flipping can. And the longer they leave it, the more damage it’s doing, not least the campaign space it’s taking up waiting for him to suspend them pending enquiry thus drawing some sort of line under it.
Isn’t this typical. They know they have messed up taking too long for suspensions, so they make themselves look even more ridiculous concocting this garbage that somehow they can’t suspend party members under third party investigation.
Partygate was identical with the interminable “can’t act or answer a question, an investigations going on.” Not a single lesson learned. Unreal.
Yes that was so funny they just said Sue Grey, Sue Grey in response to any questions and then she went to work for Starmer!
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
So in theory a majority govt could win a vote to eliminate the LOTO post and that's it? Or end PMQs presumably.
Parliament is run by conventions. They may not have legal force, but breaking them has a significant constitutional impact. If the system breaks down, a written constitution will become an urgent priority
Imagine someone Farage with a subservient party, and parliamentary majority on less than 40% of the vote, courtesy of FPTP. Not inconceivable, should it go pear shaped for Labour in government.
We have remarkably few checks and balances when it comes to the exercise of political power, other than the temper of our politics.
Which is why, as part of a serious overhaul of our Victorian political system, I think a written constitution and a fair voting system is overdue. It is a major part of why I am a Liberal Democrat.
Except who writes the constitution and who is the electoral system fair for?
I don't trust either of those likely answers.
The constitutions the Americans made for various countries they defeated after WW2 are generally pretty good. Ask ChatGPT to make the British one along those lines.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Especially as it is being used to attack them
I’m stunned that the gambling commission is leaking all this stuff as well
Surely they should investigate *after* the election
So they are now trying to make out, the reason Rishi has taken sooooo long to suspend them from party and as candidates is because he actually can’t?
I’m calling that out. Is there no end to their gaslighting us? Of course he flipping can. And the longer they leave it, the more damage it’s doing, not least the campaign space it’s taking up waiting for him to suspend them pending enquiry thus drawing some sort of line under it.
Isn’t this typical. They know they have messed up taking too long for suspensions, so they make themselves look even more ridiculous concocting this garbage that somehow they can’t suspend party members under third party investigation.
Partygate was identical with the interminable “can’t act or answer a question, an investigations going on.” Not a single lesson learned. Unreal.
Yes that was so funny they just said Sue Grey, Sue Grey in response to any questions and then she went to work for Starmer!
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
Partygate was damaging but just compounded normal mid-term dissatisfaction, and nobody outside the Westminster bubble cared about Pincher. It really was a mistake not to stick with Boris.
The country as a whole was losing its patience with Johnson. That seems to get forgotten here.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
So as the curtain falls on your doom casting of Labour's prospects in the UKGE you have now switched your attention to the US and the (so you say) inevitability of a Trump Presidency.
...says the only poster who forecast a Con majority in the PB Prediction comp ;-)
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
All of this reinforces the argument for fixed term Parliaments. I supported that when Cameron brought it in. The only thing I would have changed was to a duration of 4 years.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Had Mordaunt or Truss been Tory leader I think we could have had a replay of Canada 1993 here, Rishi I think will avoid that though and end up with 100-150 seats and still ahead of Reform on voteshare too as the Tories are still ahead of Reform in the polls tonight
Nah. He's the worst leader they've ever had. Tory members deserve a HUGE apology from the assorted pillocks who blamed them for making the wrong decision when they plainly saw he was a slow moving trainwreck. Not that they'll get one.
No he isn't, even now the Labour lead over the Tories is smaller than when Truss resigned. Inflation is less than a quarter the level Truss and Kwarteng left too
It's specious bollocks to blame Truss or Kwarteng for inflation, and to do so is to buy right into Labour's attack lines and throw other Tories under a bus in order to defend your pathetic excuse for a leader. That's pretty poor behaviour frankly from someone who prides themself on party loyalty. But I suppose you're just following his example.
To be fair Sunak should never have toppled Boris either but the biggest fall in Tory voteshare since the GE was not partygate but the Truss and Kwarteng budget aftermath
Partygate was damaging but just compounded normal mid-term dissatisfaction, and nobody outside the Westminster bubble cared about Pincher. It really was a mistake not to stick with Boris.
Johnson lied to Parliament. You cannot have a functioning Parliamentary democracy if ministers are allowed to lie to Parliament. That principle is much bigger than any individual.
It's always the failed attempt to cover up. Always. And this is true of partygate, as with earlier scandals.
The Tories would be in a much better position if Johnson had been able to tell the truth, about Pincher and partygate, and was still Tory leader and Prime Minister. But the party didn't really have a choice in the circumstances.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
any thoughts onto how the collapsing Blue vote translates into LD seats in the south, my sense is the Tories will do better than people think (in seat terms) as a huge fall in Tory votes (in all directions) means that they may well hang on in all sorts of places with 30%-35% of the vote... so I would err towards 150 seats rather than the sub-100 club
I think that's right. Too many split opposition votes for a complete Tory wipe-out as it stands.
Mind you, Sunak still has 10 days to move the polls - who knows what extra damage he can do in that time.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
You know you can edit your posts for up to 6 mins?
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
Speaker decides who is LOTO.
I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
So in theory a majority govt could win a vote to eliminate the LOTO post and that's it? Or end PMQs presumably.
Parliament is run by conventions. They may not have legal force, but breaking them has a significant constitutional impact. If the system breaks down, a written constitution will become an urgent priority
Imagine someone Farage with a subservient party, and parliamentary majority on less than 40% of the vote, courtesy of FPTP. Not inconceivable, should it go pear shaped for Labour in government.
We have remarkably few checks and balances when it comes to the exercise of political power, other than the temper of our politics.
Which is why, as part of a serious overhaul of our Victorian political system, I think a written constitution and a fair voting system is overdue. It is a major part of why I am a Liberal Democrat.
Except who writes the constitution and who is the electoral system fair for?
I don't trust either of those likely answers.
The constitutions the Americans made for various countries they defeated after WW2 are generally pretty good. Ask ChatGPT to make the British one along those lines.
Rishi Sunak is now in the most impossible position of any party leader in any general election in modern history, following the disclosure in the Sunday Times that another Tory Party official, its data head, Nick Mason, is taking leave of absence, having been accused of placing multiple bets on the general election date. Even though he is the fourth Tory official or candidate under investigation by the Gambling Commission, Sunak and his team have been instructed by the Commission they are unable to say or do anything material in relation to the accused individuals. Here is the Tory spokes statement: “As instructed by the Gambling Commission, we are not permitted to discuss any matters related to any investigation with the subject or any other persons.” In the middle of an election, this feels inappropriate. Voters surely have a right to know the facts about the alleged betting since it will be material to how they cast their vote
Especially as it is being used to attack them
I’m stunned that the gambling commission is leaking all this stuff as well
Surely they should investigate *after* the election
I think its perfectly reasonable for the electorate to see that at every level the current party of Government has been one of fill yer boots grift.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
They don't tell *anyone* about the snap election. So that when the cabinet are abruptly summoned there is no backdrop, no banners, no copy for the media, nothing.
Because instead of planning to do their jobs, the people on the inside are all down the bookies placing dodgy bets on when the election will be.
They deserve to be utterly utterly destroyed.
The way you could see this happening is if the insiders also don't *know* that the election is going to happen, but it's leaked. They can't act on it as part of their jobs because they're not officially supposed to know, it's only a rumour. But they also want to experience the joy of being in-the-know while everybody else is in the dark, so they head for the nearest Ladbrokes.
More broadly this is the same problem that Putin had. You want to use tactical surprise to catch the enemy unprepared. But if you tell your own people then it'll leak, so you end up catching your own army unprepared as well.
I think in both cases you would hope that they would be reasonably well prepared on a just in case basis.
The Conservative Party machine would have known that an election was inevitable by January 2025, and might reasonably have been ready for one at least as early as May, given all the discussion around combining the GE with the local elections.
Similarly with the Russian army. They could say least have found themselves some up to date maps, as basic preparedness.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
Who's beating them in seats? Labour, Lib Dems and... SNP? Reform??
Very very hard to see how the Tories finish 4th in seats
But if anyone can do it, it’s Sunak. Have more faith in him!
Sunak is quite simply the worst leader the Conservatives have had in 200 years. He has destroyed them.
Worse than Truss? She took seven weeks to drive Conservative ratings off the cliff edge. At least Sunak caused hideous damage more slowly.
Sunak has also slashed inflation from the level Truss left
The gas markets and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee did that. Not Sunak.
No his tax and spend policies did
Quite the opposite. By raising benefits by double digits to match inflation and pensions by more than inflation he baked in consumption by the unproductive and taxed the productive to pay for it, incentivising them to be less productive.
Thus he made things worse, we need less consumption and more production. The next wave of inflation (it is never linear, it spikes) will be along shortly. One reason the bank are sitting on their hands.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Not sure about that. For some time, the Democrats have been routinely outperforming the polls in real elections, at whatever level. I’m still of the view that the polls are overstating Trump.
Who after all has exactly the same cognitive question marks as Biden.
There is another twist in this election. What if Farage appears on Tv five days before the election crying saying I love my country. I have decided to tell my supporters to vote Tory. I am standing down my candidates in any constituency that would stop the Tories from keeping their seats in parliament. Yup, I did this last time. He cries a bit more. He has a pint to calm himself. He drops the bombshell. I have had a better job offer and it pays a lot of money. So I am off. He then gets into his TR7 and says I will be back like Arnie. The car shortly bursts into flames while he is paying for his fuel in a petrol station, it had a electrical fault apparently.A helicopter arrives and picks him up by the pub next door. In a flash he is gone.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Not sure about that. For some time, the Democrats have been routinely outperforming the polls in real elections, at whatever level. I’m still of the view that the polls are overstating Trump.
Who after all has exactly the same cognitive question marks as Biden.
Not true that Democrats have been outperforming polls.
Thank you. One of the rare academics to come out of Salford University then. I knew someone who was on the fashion design course there. But he certainly knows how to put together a CV.
Oi. It was a top engineering university back in the day.
There is another twist in this election. What if Farage appears on Tv five days before the election crying saying I love my country. I have decided to tell my supporters to vote Tory. I am standing down my candidates in any constituency that would stop the Tories from keeping their seats in parliament. Yup, I did this last time. He cries a bit more. He has a pint to calm himself. He drops the bombshell. I have had a better job offer and it pays a lot of money. So I am off. He then gets into his TR7 and says I will be back like Arnie. The car shortly bursts into flames while he is paying for his fuel in a petrol station, it had a electrical fault apparently.A helicopter arrives and picks him up by the pub next door. In a flash he is gone.
The problem is if you have decided to vote reform presumably you believe the Farage line that nothing in the UK works. So you would really have to dislike the country to vote for the party which has delivered that outcome. It is why I don’t really buy the reform voters will just drift back to the Tories line. I may be wrong but I just don’t see it as that easy.
The ONS defines "very old" as 90+. The 2022 mid-year estimate is that there were 550k very old in England and Wales. The average will be close to 1,000 per constituency now. Hordes of them. "Where are they all flocking from?" as someone might have said.
They will all want their own political representation, and many of them hold tightly to their culture instead of assimilating with the youth culture of today...
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
Ironically I think some leavers will end up regretting there being no referendum on Johnson’s deal. The democratic mandate has been set. An incoming government can have any arrangement it wants with the EU (short of full membership which is all the referendum asked) without needing a referendum. The EU is good at fudge, links will be much closer but it will not be called full membership and that will be justified by the process followed by brexiteers
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
I don't think there's any chance of the UK rejoining any time soon, but if it ever becomes possibility a fudge would surely be made over joining the single currency to allow the UK to keep the pound indefinitely
In any case polling in the UK isn't as against the Euro as the Leavers would have you think.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
Comments
The positive though is that if Reform are second on say 18% or 19% as seems quite possible then it's not because most voters have abandoned the centre, it's just that they've abandoned the Tories.
Although Reform might be second on that share, it'd be second on a share less than the Lib Dems have achieved before and nobody would have thought them as the second party at the time.
While it provides a certain grim entertainment, it's almost completely irrelevant to the country's future.
Not inconceivable, should it go pear shaped for Labour in government.
We have remarkably few checks and balances when it comes to the exercise of political power, other than the temper of our politics.
Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/22/starmer-growth-plan-doomed-access-eu-markets-economists
Flagship free school that cost £35m closes due to lack of pupils
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/jun/22/flagship-free-school-that-cost-35m-closes-due-to-lack-of-pupils
..Free schools were launched by Michael Gove in 2010, when he was education secretary, with the promise that they would close the attainment gap in England.
Groups of teachers, parents and charities were allowed to start schools in old offices, shops and houses regardless of whether local authorities believed they were needed.
More than 650 are open, with more understood to be looking for premises. In many cases, the costs of opening the school have spiralled upwards.
Latest figures from the Department for Education show five free schools cost more than £30m each, while the National Audit Office found 24 free school sites had cost over £10m each.
Experts say there may be more shocks to come, because the government has taken years to reveal the capital costs of some free schools and has failed to publish any data on capital costs for more than four years...
Asked if he would ever reconsider this, he added: “No. It isn’t our plan, it never has been..."
But given the risk that Reform might end up as the leading party of right, I reluctantly voted Tory. It won’t make any difference here - we will continue to have a Labour MP - but it might help stave off Reform on a national basis.
I’m stunned that the gambling commission is leaking all this stuff as well
Surely they should investigate *after* the election
If you want to vote Tory, of course it is your perfect right to do so, but don’t pretend that you are doing so for some higher national purpose.
I’m calling that out. Is there no end to their gaslighting us? Of course he flipping can. And the longer they leave it, the more damage it’s doing, not least the campaign space it’s taking up waiting for him to suspend them pending enquiry thus drawing some sort of line under it.
Isn’t this typical. They know they have messed up taking too long for suspensions, so they make themselves look even more ridiculous concocting this garbage that somehow they can’t suspend party members under third party investigation.
Partygate was identical with the interminable “can’t act or answer a question, an investigations going on.” Not a single lesson learned. Unreal.
Whether Labour can do it or will just waste money on its own ideological white elephants is yet to be seen.
The Tories will lose this election. My vote won’t change that
I don’t think it is in the country’s interests for Reform to be the dominant party of the right. So I am reluctantly voting Tory as the Tories having more votes than Reform may help. If there was no risk of Reform replacing the Tories I would abstain.
Whether you define that as a “higher national purpose” is up to you I guess.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
I just don’t get how the Tories having more votes than Reform will help.
Sorry.
F1: backed Norris to win at 2.84. Despite the name, this is the correct link: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/06/spain-pre-qualifying-2024.html
http://www.matthewjgoodwin.org/poll-archive.html
Savanta has Newton Abbot as Con-Lab with Labour strongest challenger
Trump is favourite in the betting, but not overwhelmingly. If you really think Trump has already won you could make a very good return
If his opponent used that article as PR for himself, then he's bang to rights.
We are in the middle of a sleazefest. Most people just want it to end. Anyone voting Tory or Farage has a morality problem or a screw loose
Not a prediction but a statement of fact.
HY, I generally like you and your more moderate Conservatism - although you are still far right of where your Party needs to be to regain power - but your recent number totting is your weakest link to date.
You can’t just bung Conservative and Reform voters together and produce a magic wand total out of it. I’m not here to counsel how the Conservatives come back into contention but the fact that you so fundamentally misunderstand the grievances of both centrist AND right wing voters leads me to think you ain’t comin’ back any time soon.
We all get things wrong, and sometimes a few things right.
IF Trump turns up to the debate next week - and lots of ground being covered for why he might not - then any stumble by either is going to be analysed to death. A weird performance by Trump - another death by shark versus electrocution meander for example - and the spotlight is on his fast fade to oblivion.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/10/trump-sharks-electrocuted-boat-story/
I know who I want to win in both the UK and US elections. I think my UK hunch will turn out correct; I have zero idea about the US one. If either candidate wins, I would not be surprised the way thing stand.
I will then sit back and watch with macabre fascination (and a bottle of Somerset Cider Brandy) as the election night plays out. Hopefully in the company of many of you on PB.
I don't trust either of those likely answers.
If that is 25/5 in favour of the Tories then it is a very different future than if it is 15/15 or 10/20 in favour of Reform
This is probably their most effective of the election, and it will, IMHO, save them a few seats. Personally I think it is absolute hogwash - but a more palpable fear than attempting to demonize the current incarnation of Labour.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
(Innocent expression, shocking origin.)
It's always the failed attempt to cover up. Always. And this is true of partygate, as with earlier scandals.
The Tories would be in a much better position if Johnson had been able to tell the truth, about Pincher and partygate, and was still Tory leader and Prime Minister. But the party didn't really have a choice in the circumstances.
Mind you, Sunak still has 10 days to move the polls - who knows what extra damage he can do in that time.
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2023/03/going-native
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times
First Con majority over 20,000 is Mark Francois, who has his 31,000 majority declared at 01:45.
That’s when I expect the cork to pop, if not then it’s going to be a very long morning indeed.
The Conservative Party machine would have known that an election was inevitable by January 2025, and might reasonably have been ready for one at least as early as May, given all the discussion around combining the GE with the local elections.
Similarly with the Russian army. They could say least have found themselves some up to date maps, as basic preparedness.
Thus he made things worse, we need less consumption and more production. The next wave of inflation (it is never linear, it spikes) will be along shortly. One reason the bank are sitting on their hands.
Who after all has exactly the same cognitive question marks as Biden.
With apologies to Shakespeare.
https://x.com/ricwe123/status/1804436265011454214?s=61
They will all want their own political representation, and many of them hold tightly to their culture instead of assimilating with the youth culture of today...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/ageing/bulletins/estimatesoftheveryoldincludingcentenarians/latest
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
He was right.
The EU fomented an illegal coup.
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow?
❎ Stay out: 40% (-3)
☑️ Rejoin: 39% (+2)
🤷 Don’t know: 12% (+1)
😐 Won’t vote: 9% (NC)
https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1804152522350715018?t=YjClqmzwlNXrl19Tr42B0A&s=19