So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
I don't doubt that he'll be feeling depressed and anxious right now, but there is at least an end in sight to his misery (or the acute phase, anyway).
The question really is over what he does to get himself through to that point. Does he hide himself away in an effort to avoid further mistakes, or does he panic and risk making things worse?
His view on mental health, as we’ve been told repeatedly, is that we are over medicalising what are just the ups and downs of life.
And yes, the thing with elections is they offer a moment of catharsis in defeat. I remember that feeling in 2019. Its was a sort of relief to know the Brexit fight was now completely over.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I agree, I am on 0-49 with £16 at 20/1.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
Can a PB expert answer a puzzle. The government itself says that 25% of all schoolchildren qualify for free school meals - over 2 million.
How is this possible in a prosperous country with a minimum wage and high levels of employment? I'm asking a maths/economics question, not a party political one. I live in an area in the bottom third economically, and this just does not seem credible.
Its because poverty is relative.
Many of those eligible for free school meals will also be obese.
Or recently arrived immigrants. Or both.
There is never any shortage of people claiming for free handouts.
Are there no workhouses? Are there no prisons?
The reality is that obesity continues to increase and is highest in deprived areas.
Unsurprising, of course. Good food (along with access to sporting facilities, one might add) costs a lot more than pile em high, sell em cheap ultra-processed fat blocks.
Funny if she gets 1,000 votes and the LDs miss out by 100. Not sure why she's standing here when it can only help the Tories to hold the seat.
She formed her own party despite, as far as I can tell, other parties already filling the niche she would seek to fill, and she could probably have been adopted as a candidate by one of them if she had wanted.
Lacking a highly specific niche, the other explanation for a minor party is typically around ego.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
I expect the billions will offer some comfort if he is wise, but given his golden assent to this office, I’m not sure he will be quite the same. Not good for the ego.
I'd have thought it won't be too difficult to rationalise for him. The personal narrative is that he nobly stepped up after the disaster of Truss, stabilised the economy, and then lost an election that she, Johnson, a long period in office, and ungovernable backbenchers had rendered unwinnable. If the defeat is catastrophic, you add in some criticism of CCHQ and unfair media coverage.
I'm not saying that's strictly true, but that's a reasonable story he can tell himself. Egos are pretty resilient, particularly those of senior politicians.
On the discussion about party loyalty. I am a Conservative member. At the moment I will, with considerable reluctance, vote Conservative. I would describe myself as a One Nation Conservative, but also quite like a lot of the philosophy of Nick Timothy. As a party we have governed poorly, albeit in some difficult circumstances. But, habits are hard to break, locally my MP seems a moderate, the main rivals are the Lib Dems who I dislike especially on EU policy, and I want there to be some Conservative Party left post-election. Then, I guess, the fight for the party will begin.
Good luck! It will not be a pleasant or easy fight.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I agree, I am on 0-49 with £16 at 20/1.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
I think there will be a moment in a week or so after further Tory polling falls and a mini Reform bump when a more realistic seat number (200+) becomes value. There is still plenty of scope for Reform to fall away before the election and those votes to go back largely to Con. especially if people start getting complacent about a Labour landslide.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
To be fair to kinabalu, I can totally see his point. I wouldn't enjoy taking £10k off an identifiable human who I sort of know. But for that reason I wouldn't have made the bet in the first place because it can have only downside! If you're both comfortable with the bet, it makes a bit of a mockery of thr process not to take it.
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
For all the jokes or out there predictions around an existential collapse of the Tories, the fact of the matter is political anoraks are having to face it as a genuine possibility.
If that prospect breaks through more into the public consciousness it could become a self fulfilling prophecy - they might regret it later, but a substrant of remaining Tory support might feel there is a benefit to helping form the successor party on the right.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I'm pretty sure he would. #classicleon
I’m pretty sure you would as well. A bet is a bet. This is a betting site
I definitely would.
I once won 200 quid in a contest to see who could eat a whole packet of digestive biscuits the quickest with no fluids. I collected my winnings and was then suckered into a second round. I made the tactical error of making myself spew up the first packet and felt so rotten I couldn't finish the second packet. So I had to hand back the original 200 quid and another 200 quid on top of that. #anofficerandagentleman
Reminds me a bit of Luke and the eggs. But that's different. You lost a good old-fashioned even money 'double or quits' there.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
To be fair to kinabalu, I can totally see his point. I wouldn't enjoy taking £10k off an identifiable human who I sort of know. But for that reason I wouldn't have made the bet in the first place because it can have only downside! If you're both comfortable with the bet, it makes a bit of a mockery of thr process not to take it.
Speaking as a member of the legal profession I wouldn’t worry too much about taking £10k off an identifiable human you sort of know. It takes getting used to but the transition is surprisingly easy.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
If roles were reversed, would Rishi feel sorry for, or show mercy towards, you?
Everything known about him points to the answer being "no", in a way that wasn't true of, say, John Major.
Politics is a rough trade, but there are degrees of roughness. Ultimately, Sunak has tried to cash hardman cheques that his psychological account can't support.
Can a PB expert answer a puzzle. The government itself says that 25% of all schoolchildren qualify for free school meals - over 2 million.
How is this possible in a prosperous country with a minimum wage and high levels of employment? I'm asking a maths/economics question, not a party political one. I live in an area in the bottom third economically, and this just does not seem credible.
Its because poverty is relative.
Many of those eligible for free school meals will also be obese.
Or recently arrived immigrants. Or both.
There is never any shortage of people claiming for free handouts.
Are there no workhouses? Are there no prisons?
The reality is that obesity continues to increase and is highest in deprived areas.
Funny if she gets 1,000 votes and the LDs miss out by 100. Not sure why she's standing here when it can only help the Tories to hold the seat.
She formed her own party despite, as far as I can tell, other parties already filling the niche she would seek to fill, and she could probably have been adopted as a candidate by one of them if she had wanted.
Lacking a highly specific niche, the other explanation for a minor party is typically around ego.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
If he did so, I'd advise the great playright not to have you proofread them for him.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I agree, I am on 0-49 with £16 at 20/1.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
Their floor is lower than they realised, and turnout for them may be poor, but I would think that gets them to 100 at least, though I think closer to that than 150 personally.
But they need some good news and some steady days to boost morale and stop spiralling.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
Also Sunak is only partially the author of his humiliation but he will get 100% of the blame. Take D-Gate. Under normal circumstances this would be a mid level muck up. "I probably should have gone to it but it really doesn't matter in the scheme of things". But the narrative has taken hold Sunak single handedly destroyed the political system through his reckless disregard of D-Day veterans.
On the discussion about party loyalty. I am a Conservative member. At the moment I will, with considerable reluctance, vote Conservative. I would describe myself as a One Nation Conservative, but also quite like a lot of the philosophy of Nick Timothy. As a party we have governed poorly, albeit in some difficult circumstances. But, habits are hard to break, locally my MP seems a moderate, the main rivals are the Lib Dems who I dislike especially on EU policy, and I want there to be some Conservative Party left post-election. Then, I guess, the fight for the party will begin.
Good luck! It will not be a pleasant or easy fight.
I fear James_M is going to lose, at least initially.
Off thread: Lancs are playing Notts in the T20 at Trent Bridge tomorrow. Bet365 make Notts, heavy favourites, despite Notts' record of no wins, four losses and Lancs' position at the top of the table. Now I'll freely admit that T20 is a bit of a lottery, but I think Lancs have a much better chance than their 2.5 odds imply. Granted Notts are at home but it doesn't seem to have helped them so far.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
To be fair to kinabalu, I can totally see his point. I wouldn't enjoy taking £10k off an identifiable human who I sort of know. But for that reason I wouldn't have made the bet in the first place because it can have only downside! If you're both comfortable with the bet, it makes a bit of a mockery of thr process not to take it.
Yes, I’d definitely feel a large twinge of compassion as I took my winnings. But I would definitely take the winnings. I’d probably offer to buy @sandpit a very expensive dinner out of those winnings to say sorry. But I would take the cash - for the sake of the site’s reputation! (Plus the money would be fun)
Imagine if some by-passer dropped in and saw the site as and when @kinabalu’s perspective prevailed. They’d see grown men making bets then not actually paying up because they feel sorry for each other. pb would be the site where pussies go to make stupid bets no one honours. The site would die in weeks
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
Also Sunak is only partially the author of his humiliation but he will get 100% of the blame. Take D-Gate. Under normal circumstances this would be a mid level muck up. "I probably should have gone to it but it really doesn't matter in the scheme of things". But the narrative has taken hold Sunak single handedly destroyed the political system through his reckless disregard of D-Day veterans.
Yes, this is in fact the main reason why I think he might go early, as I indicated below.
He might have psychologically have had enough, and if he quietly steps off the stage early he gets less of the blame.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Doesn't everyone who is not *actually* supporting the Tories ideally want them to win exactly one seat, in Clacton.
Yes, given there’s no chance the Lib Dems come through the middle and make it a surprise yellow gain.
Anyone claiming to be a fan of PR shouldn't begrudge the Refukkers winning the odd seat or two. They and their views deserve some representation in the Commons.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I agree, I am on 0-49 with £16 at 20/1.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
Their floor is lower than they realised, and turnout for them may be poor, but I would think that gets them to 100 at least, though I think closer to that than 150 personally.
But they need some good news and some steady days to boost morale and stop spiralling.
The gap between 40 and 140 seats sounds huge but if Refuk are polling mid teens or better, it is probably around a 2% difference in the Tory vote. If one band is plausible so is the other.
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I agree, I am on 0-49 with £16 at 20/1.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
Their floor is lower than they realised, and turnout for them may be poor, but I would think that gets them to 100 at least, though I think closer to that than 150 personally.
But they need some good news and some steady days to boost morale and stop spiralling.
The gap between 40 and 140 seats sounds huge but if Refuk are polling mid teens or better, it is probably around a 2% difference in the Tory vote. If one band is plausible so is the other.
Ah, FPTP, how people love thee...until moments like this.
I don't feel sorry for any MP who loses their job. They know the risks, especially when you've been in power 14 years and your party has gone batshit crazy. It's not nice to be unemployed (I've been there in my youth) but many people in this country are feeling the squeeze because of the Tories goat rodeo, so they can't really expect too much sympathy.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
To be fair to kinabalu, I can totally see his point. I wouldn't enjoy taking £10k off an identifiable human who I sort of know. But for that reason I wouldn't have made the bet in the first place because it can have only downside! If you're both comfortable with the bet, it makes a bit of a mockery of thr process not to take it.
Yes, I’d definitely feel a large twinge of compassion as I took my winnings. But I would definitely take the winnings. I’d probably offer to buy @sandpit a very expensive dinner out of those winnings to say sorry. But I would take the cash - for the sake of the site’s reputation! (Plus the money would be fun)
Imagine if some by-passer dropped in and saw the site as and when @kinabalu’s perspective prevailed. They’d see grown men making bets then not actually paying up because they feel sorry for each other. pb would be the site where pussies go to make stupid bets no one honours. The site would die in weeks
On the discussion about party loyalty. I am a Conservative member. At the moment I will, with considerable reluctance, vote Conservative. I would describe myself as a One Nation Conservative, but also quite like a lot of the philosophy of Nick Timothy. As a party we have governed poorly, albeit in some difficult circumstances. But, habits are hard to break, locally my MP seems a moderate, the main rivals are the Lib Dems who I dislike especially on EU policy, and I want there to be some Conservative Party left post-election. Then, I guess, the fight for the party will begin.
Good luck! It will not be a pleasant or easy fight.
I fear James_M is going to lose, at least initially.
My initial thought, which I have not yet had reason to change, is that the first reaction of a party will be to take the easy path and the explanation for loss that will comfort them the most.
Blaming it all on Rishi being crap (not that he has not contributed a lot) and not being enough like Reform, which most of them like the major talking points of, would fit the bill.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
I don't feel sorry for any MP who loses their job. They know the risks, especially when you've been in power 14 years and your party has gone batshit crazy. It's not nice to be unemployed (I've been there in my youth) but many people in this country are feeling the squeeze because of the Tories goat rodeo, so they can't really expect too much sympathy.
Being an MP is a rough job in many ways. It's not badly paid or anything, but there's plenty of aspects that make it tough, and getting voted out potentially not because you did badly but because the party did, is one of them.
But that's part of the price for getting a share in the disposition of power over 70 million people.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Enough already. Some people will get the wrong idea that taking Sandpit's £10k troubles you.
League or Union this afternoon? Genuinely torn. I much prefer domestic rugby (and football TBF) to the overhyped international games.
Although I was brought up to watch and play Union, as an old man I prefer League. Too often Union games descend into interminable scrimmages and there are far too many penalties.
After having missed the importance of D-Day is there anything else in the calendar that Rishi's team might have missed?
Trooping the Colour next weekend might have the potential to spark some public worries about the King's health. Is Catherine going to be taking part, or will there be another grainy hostage video of her visiting a garden centre instead?
Isn't the Covid Inquiry Module 1 interim report due in a few weeks? There's certainly potential for trouble there.
Other foreseeables: School exam season, Euro football, Wimbledon, Eras Tour (oh god, are we going to get Swiftie Sunak again?), Glastonbury, School holidays in Scotland & NI. Plenty of potential there for tunnel-vision SpAds to trip the campaign up somehow...
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
No StartUp party?
It would appear not.
Though this party seems like a mistake may have been made on the form.
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
Do these people genuinely believe they are going to change the world (or indeed change anything)?
League or Union this afternoon? Genuinely torn. I much prefer domestic rugby (and football TBF) to the overhyped international games.
Although I was brought up to watch and play Union, as an old man I prefer League. Too often Union games descend into interminable scrimmages and there are far too many penalties.
I’ve started watching the Union because it kicked off 7 minutes earlier. Feel a bit guilty because the odd 3.07 KO is likely to accommodate Rob Burrow tributes.
People are not getting my point. It's not that it's £10k. That's fine. Big bets are great. You win a lot if you win and lose a lot if you lose. Loser pays, winner takes it and says cheers thanks. All good.
But this isn't that. One side is just a nominal tenner. 1000/1 'bets' don't work between mates, either irl or digital. It's the imbalance not the amount.
But like I say, greenlighted on the basis that it won't happen and it's a fun way to generate a charity contribution.
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
After having missed the importance of D-Day is there anything else in the calendar that Rishi's team might have missed?
Trooping the Colour next weekend might have the potential to spark some public worries about the King's health. Is Catherine going to be taking part, or will there be another grainy hostage video of her visiting a garden centre instead?
She has already pulled out
Assuming Richi makes it through today by hiding from journalists, what exactly does he think they are going to ask him about whenever he does finally emerge from the fridge?
Does he need an even bigger gaffe to get them off D-Day?
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
No StartUp party?
It would appear not.
Though this party seems like a mistake may have been made on the form.
I don't feel sorry for any MP who loses their job. They know the risks, especially when you've been in power 14 years and your party has gone batshit crazy. It's not nice to be unemployed (I've been there in my youth) but many people in this country are feeling the squeeze because of the Tories goat rodeo, so they can't really expect too much sympathy.
Being an MP is a rough job in many ways. It's not badly paid or anything, but there's plenty of aspects that make it tough, and getting voted out potentially not because you did badly but because the party did, is one of them.
But that's part of the price for getting a share in the disposition of power over 70 million people.
Plenty of them went blindly into the voting lobbies for any old nonsense, so I don't feel sorry for them.
Anne Marie Trevelyan in Berwick is a prime example, backed whichever leader looked likely to win and give her a cabinet post, voted for Truss' kamikaze budget. She needs to get back out into the real world and feel the consequences.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Enough already. Some people will get the wrong idea that taking Sandpit's £10k troubles you.
Enough talk about betting??!!
Ok I can inform you that
1. Ukrainian motorway stops are mildly depressing 2. My bus is largely empty 3. Once you get out of Odessa ukraine feels totally normal. There is no sense of the war at all 4. There are two young women on my bus. Both stunning. A strike rate of 100% - which is not unusual for Ukraine
I’ve never seen a simple convincing cultural/genetic explanation why the women of Ukraine are so incredibly beautiful. But they really are. I believe @sandpit is married to one which will soften the blow if he loses his bet
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
Do these people genuinely believe they are going to change the world (or indeed change anything)?
Most will never field any candidates, so it does make you wonder what is behind it. Sure, there are a few cases where ego is behind it, but most of these will never get any attention or do anything, so it cannot be that. I admire minor parties standing with stubborn insistence, like the Christian People's Alliance, but the ones that exist only on paper? No idea.
Speaking of, what happened to that nonsense Northern Independence Party that was getting online attention a year ago?
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
To not answer your question, North West Durham in 1992 had a good line-up of candidates.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
I expect the billions will offer some comfort if he is wise, but given his golden assent to this office, I’m not sure he will be quite the same. Not good for the ego.
It’s instructive that the last two Conservative leaders have been so poor that their exit has made observers genuinely concerned for their wellbeing.
Whoever they get in next, they really need to look, in great depth and fearlessly, at their culture of loyalty and patronage and their processes of election. It couldn’t be clearer that it has been disastrous for them.
It's always comforting to think that fiddling around with processes will lead to massively better results. Just as it's nice to think that a few sanctions will deter a determined dictator, although there's no evidence of that ever actually happening.
But there's equally no evidence that there are some massively talented Conservatives who the current party electoral system has screwed over. The fact is I think that we have an extremely poor political class, convinced of their own cynical cleverness, addicted to short term gimmicks, ignorant of anything except public relations and uninterested in facing short-term popularity to answer the nation's urgent problems. We can argue about the reasons for that - the rise of social media, Tony Blair's lamentable example of centrist mediocrity, the PPE-spad-MP career trajectory, etc - but until we solve the problem, I think we're stuck with a bunch of dismal politicians.
And the lack of economic growth, which they themselves largely cause means they don't have other people's money to spray around, as Blair did, so they can't buy voters off in the way that they used to.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Enough already. Some people will get the wrong idea that taking Sandpit's £10k troubles you.
Enough talk about betting??!!
Ok I can inform you that
1. Ukrainian motorway stops are mildly depressing 2. My bus is largely empty 3. Once you get out of Odessa ukraine feels totally normal. There is no sense of the war at all 4. There are two young women on my bus. Both stunning. A strike rate of 100% - which is not unusual for Ukraine
I’ve never seen a simple convincing cultural/genetic explanation why the women of Ukraine are so incredibly beautiful. But they really are. I believe @sandpit is married to one which will soften the blow if he loses his bet
Just enough about your bet with Sandpit.
You're travelling by bus? That's interesting, and unusual for you, I'd guess?
We need to see Sunak on a bus and not realising that you need to pay, or that he doesn't have his own special seat.
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
Electoral Calculus has my North Dorset constituency as the safest Tory seat, so if that one falls to the LDs Sandpit could be in a spot of bother.
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Leon will be unbearable. Will ruin one of the most memorable events in UK political history.
I think you’re pretty safe, TBH
1 seat after a recount would be very funny.
I trust that Leon's winnings will be going towards a Drone for Ukraine.
I fear towards a drone about my holidays is more likely.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Enough already. Some people will get the wrong idea that taking Sandpit's £10k troubles you.
Enough talk about betting??!!
Ok I can inform you that
1. Ukrainian motorway stops are mildly depressing 2. My bus is largely empty 3. Once you get out of Odessa ukraine feels totally normal. There is no sense of the war at all 4. There are two young women on my bus. Both stunning. A strike rate of 100% - which is not unusual for Ukraine
I’ve never seen a simple convincing cultural/genetic explanation why the women of Ukraine are so incredibly beautiful. But they really are. I believe @sandpit is married to one which will soften the blow if he loses his bet
Oh, by the way. let’s see photographic evidence of your tenner (that’s 500 of your Grivnas) actually being donated to a Ukranian charity, not to the barmaid’s cleavage fund or spent in the Bunny Ranch…
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Can a PB expert answer a puzzle. The government itself says that 25% of all schoolchildren qualify for free school meals - over 2 million.
How is this possible in a prosperous country with a minimum wage and high levels of employment? I'm asking a maths/economics question, not a party political one. I live in an area in the bottom third economically, and this just does not seem credible.
I am a former expert in this area. FSM is a piggy back benefit - if you qualify for a particular benefit, you get FSMs.
There are so many people on some form of welfare, loads of kids qualify.
This is yet another hidden perverse incentive that has to be modelled when you look at the relationship between welfare and employment. Lots of Scottish benefits piggy back off UK Gov benefits, so there are even more disincentives to work than elsewhere in the UK for example.
These interactions can be flat - it's always worth not working - or threshold based, where a certain number of hours would tip you over an edge which meant you start to lose money. I vaguely recall 16 hours per week being one for some reason.
Thanks. However, the UK unemployment rate is about 4% and this should have some kind of link with the FSM rate, 25%, but it seems not to.
I wonder what the effect on the election would be if someone like Caneron came in as caretaker leader, with Rishi staying on as PM.
Or alternately, Penny Mordaunt or Tom Tugendhat. I doubt they'd take it on, whereas Caneron might, with less to lose.
That really would be an extinction level event. “Vote for us. We’ll pick the PM after we win. We’ll get it right this time - promise.”
But then look now ; it doesn't look much better for them now.
That''s why apparently bizarre things can happen in situations such as what we have. Also, if Sunak decided to step down, they migt not have any choice. I grant you, we are now probably reaching the outer rings of the wildly speculative, though..
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
I thought perhaps Peter Bottomley, but first glance suggests despite being an MP for 49 years he only defeated one person who went on to be an MP (and still is) - Clive Efford.
People are not getting my point. It's not that it's £10k. That's fine. Big bets are great. You win a lot if you win and lose a lot if you lose. Loser pays, winner takes it and says cheers thanks. All good.
But this isn't that. One side is just a nominal tenner. 1000/1 'bets' don't work between mates, either irl or digital. It's the imbalance not the amount.
But like I say, greenlighted on the basis that it won't happen and it's a fun way to generate a charity contribution.
Nice one sandpit and leon 🙂
Ok we get it. You’re a nice chap. You wouldn’t take the money. I would. I’m not as nice as you, and I wouldn’t even feel particularly bad about it as @Sandpit has ample time to hedge the bet if he is genuinely worried. So if he ends up losing £10k it’s because he’s dumb (which he obviously isnt) and I completely approve of taxing stupidity
Now we can move on
What are the odds of reform getting more votes than the Tories? THAT is an interesting concept
Quite tough for them - they have fewer candidates for a start. But absolutely possible
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Current MPs? Or in the past?
I'm not doing the homework, but I wonder about Tony Benn.
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
No StartUp party?
It would appear not.
Though this party seems like a mistake may have been made on the form.
Oh, Save Us Now the group around that guy in Gateshead Central & Whickham I posted about yesterday, the one with the square brackets around his surname. They believe that Covid didn't happen, the 'vaccine' is programmed with some sort of ability to kill us when 'they' want us all dead unless you've had the antidote which all 'they' have had. 5G masts and/or ULEZ cameras hide some sort of capability to shoot us with directed energy weapon. The square brackets thing is to distinguish the 'living man' from the government owned identity that's on your birth certificate. I'm not sure if they are on the full David-Icke reptilian train, but they are getting there.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
Reform - Much Ado About Nothing?
The Corbyn Years - Love's Labour's Lost
Rishi Sunak's Campaign - Comedy of Errors
Were you up for Rees-Mogg? - As You Like It
(I couldn't come up with two noble kinsmen....)
Boris is obviously Falstaff. Apologies to Falstaff.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Enough already. Some people will get the wrong idea that taking Sandpit's £10k troubles you.
Enough talk about betting??!!
Ok I can inform you that
1. Ukrainian motorway stops are mildly depressing 2. My bus is largely empty 3. Once you get out of Odessa ukraine feels totally normal. There is no sense of the war at all 4. There are two young women on my bus. Both stunning. A strike rate of 100% - which is not unusual for Ukraine
I’ve never seen a simple convincing cultural/genetic explanation why the women of Ukraine are so incredibly beautiful. But they really are. I believe @sandpit is married to one which will soften the blow if he loses his bet
Oh, by the way. let’s see photographic evidence of your tenner (that’s 500 of your Grivnas) actually being donated to a Ukranian charity, not to the barmaid’s cleavage fund or spent in the Bunny Ranch…
I won’t be in Ukraine then
But I will indeed provide photo evidence as I donate to whatever-you-desire
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Tam Dalyell. Beat four future MPs: Michael Ancram, Alex Pollock, Jim Sillars, Kenny MacAskill
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
Sadly most of the new party registrations with the Electoral Commission are just varities of independent and residents association groups, but I cannot say I am very impressed with most of the others either.
National Rebirth Party
New United Kingdom Party
The Yoruba Party in the UK
Party of Women
Homeland Party
Communist Future
Freedom Alliance
The Sustainable Party
Fairer Voting Party
Pirate Party UK
The Global Policymakers
Open Party
System Change
Anew UK
Consensus
Britain Reborn
FederalUK
Democratic Liberation Party
Science Party
Climate Party
Confelicity
Scottish Unionist Party
Free Palestine
Our Precious World Party
Count Binface Party
The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).
No StartUp party?
It would appear not.
Though this party seems like a mistake may have been made on the form.
Oh, Save Us Now the group around that guy in Gateshead Central & Whickham I posted about yesterday, the one with the square brackets around his surname. They believe that Covid didn't happen, the 'vaccine' is programmed with some sort of ability to kill us when 'they' want us all dead unless you've had the antidote which all 'they' have had. 5G masts and/or ULEZ cameras hide some sort of capability to shoot us with directed energy weapon. The square brackets thing is to distinguish the 'living man' from the government owned identity that's on your birth certificate. I'm not sure if they are on the full David-Icke reptilian train, but they are getting there.
I'm surprised they have the inclination let alone adminstrative ability to correctly register a political party with the Electoral Commission.
Is that not a great way for 'them' to track their biggest opponents by knowing who the key figures are?
People are not getting my point. It's not that it's £10k. That's fine. Big bets are great. You win a lot if you win and lose a lot if you lose. Loser pays, winner takes it and says cheers thanks. All good.
But this isn't that. One side is just a nominal tenner. 1000/1 'bets' don't work between mates, either irl or digital. It's the imbalance not the amount.
But like I say, greenlighted on the basis that it won't happen and it's a fun way to generate a charity contribution.
Nice one sandpit and leon 🙂
Ok we get it. You’re a nice chap. You wouldn’t take the money. I would. I’m not as nice as you, and I wouldn’t even feel particularly bad about it as @Sandpit has ample time to hedge the bet if he is genuinely worried. So if he ends up losing £10k it’s because he’s dumb (which he obviously isnt) and I completely approve of taxing stupidity
Now we can move on
What are the odds of reform getting more votes than the Tories? THAT is an interesting concept
Quite tough for them - they have fewer candidates for a start. But absolutely possible
Your the next tranche of the refuk target market. Also need a lot of Conservative stay at home and LD switches too.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
I expect the billions will offer some comfort if he is wise, but given his golden assent to this office, I’m not sure he will be quite the same. Not good for the ego.
It’s instructive that the last two Conservative leaders have been so poor that their exit has made observers genuinely concerned for their wellbeing.
Whoever they get in next, they really need to look, in great depth and fearlessly, at their culture of loyalty and patronage and their processes of election. It couldn’t be clearer that it has been disastrous for them.
It's always comforting to think that fiddling around with processes will lead to massively better results. Just as it's nice to think that a few sanctions will deter a determined dictator, although there's no evidence of that ever actually happening.
But there's equally no evidence that there are some massively talented Conservatives who the current party electoral system has screwed over. The fact is I think that we have an extremely poor political class, convinced of their own cynical cleverness, addicted to short term gimmicks, ignorant of anything except public relations and uninterested in facing short-term popularity to answer the nation's urgent problems. We can argue about the reasons for that - the rise of social media, Tony Blair's lamentable example of centrist mediocrity, the PPE-spad-MP career trajectory, etc - but until we solve the problem, I think we're stuck with a bunch of dismal politicians.
And the lack of economic growth, which they themselves largely cause means they don't have other people's money to spray around, as Blair did, so they can't buy voters off in the way that they used to.
I would add. An absolutely dire media. Who keep indulging this bollocks whilst ridiculing and ostracising anyone who dares point out that the assumptions of the status quo ideology they grew up with simply haven't been working for 15 years.
After having missed the importance of D-Day is there anything else in the calendar that Rishi's team might have missed?
Trooping the Colour next weekend might have the potential to spark some public worries about the King's health. Is Catherine going to be taking part, or will there be another grainy hostage video of her visiting a garden centre instead?
She has already pulled out
Assuming Richi makes it through today by hiding from journalists, what exactly does he think they are going to ask him about whenever he does finally emerge from the fridge?
Does he need an even bigger gaffe to get them off D-Day?
That's what Dead Cat Theory would suggest.
The trouble with Dead Cat Theory is that you can only do it a couple of times before the room stinks of deceased felines.
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Current MPs? Or in the past?
I'm not doing the homework, but I wonder about Tony Benn.
Good shout but only three (James Lindsey, Robert Cooke and Malcolm St Clair) and St Clair has to have a bit of an asterisk on whether he counts. I hadn't known that in the 1984 Chesterfield by-election, Bill Maynard (Greengrass from Heartbeat) stood as an Independent Labour candidate.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Enough already. Some people will get the wrong idea that taking Sandpit's £10k troubles you.
Enough talk about betting??!!
Ok I can inform you that
1. Ukrainian motorway stops are mildly depressing 2. My bus is largely empty 3. Once you get out of Odessa ukraine feels totally normal. There is no sense of the war at all 4. There are two young women on my bus. Both stunning. A strike rate of 100% - which is not unusual for Ukraine
I’ve never seen a simple convincing cultural/genetic explanation why the women of Ukraine are so incredibly beautiful. But they really are. I believe @sandpit is married to one which will soften the blow if he loses his bet
Oh, by the way. let’s see photographic evidence of your tenner (that’s 500 of your Grivnas) actually being donated to a Ukranian charity, not to the barmaid’s cleavage fund or spent in the Bunny Ranch…
I won’t be in Ukraine then
But I will indeed provide photo evidence as I donate to whatever-you-desire
Well either you’re going to win the bet, or you’re going to lose the bet.
So you leave your tenner in Ukraine, and spend your one photo to show it, and if I lose I’ll come and find you with your winnings. Deal?
Great thread Stodge. I put £20 on the Tories getting between 200-250 at 8/1 on the basis that anything else looked like wipeout. Something the Tories always manage to avoid.
I see they're now 20/1
So thanks to your fine recommendation I've now covered my bet with £20 on Sutton and Cheam
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
Sandpit would offer to pay and you would say no.
I am certain of this and happy to put my money where my mouth is. Even money and £25 says I'm right.
Bet void if the Cons win a seat obviously.
Deal?
Bets don’t work like that. If you owe someone ten bags, then you meet them with the ten bags.
For a serious bet, yes. Eg if the bet was your 10k against my substantial sum and I won I'd expect you to pay. However if it was your 10k against my nominal £1 or tenner and I won I would expect you to offer to pay but then I would waive it.
That's how I view things. People are different of course. But you'll be ok. Zero Con seats? You're £10 richer you shrewdie!
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
Reform - Much Ado About Nothing?
The Corbyn Years - Love's Labour's Lost
Rishi Sunak's Campaign - Comedy of Errors
Were you up for Rees-Mogg? - As You Like It
(I couldn't come up with two noble kinsmen....)
He'd already have a line for The Comedy of Errors. A tale told by an idiot. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.
People are not getting my point. It's not that it's £10k. That's fine. Big bets are great. You win a lot if you win and lose a lot if you lose. Loser pays, winner takes it and says cheers thanks. All good.
But this isn't that. One side is just a nominal tenner. 1000/1 'bets' don't work between mates, either irl or digital. It's the imbalance not the amount.
But like I say, greenlighted on the basis that it won't happen and it's a fun way to generate a charity contribution.
Nice one sandpit and leon 🙂
Ok we get it. You’re a nice chap. You wouldn’t take the money. I would. I’m not as nice as you, and I wouldn’t even feel particularly bad about it as @Sandpit has ample time to hedge the bet if he is genuinely worried. So if he ends up losing £10k it’s because he’s dumb (which he obviously isnt) and I completely approve of taxing stupidity
Now we can move on
What are the odds of reform getting more votes than the Tories? THAT is an interesting concept
Quite tough for them - they have fewer candidates for a start. But absolutely possible
Your the next tranche of the refuk target market. Also need a lot of Conservative stay at home and LD switches too.
Yes not easy. It would be the first time since the 1920s that a third party outpolled one of the big two?
But if it’s ever going to happen now seems like the moment
I don't know if it has been mentioned but there is an interesting article in the Telegraph's colour supplement about James Bagge, who is standing against Liz Truss, as an Independent. He was one of the local Conservative Association who opposed her adoption and was labelled as part of the "Turnip Taliban" by the press. He says they were depicted as a bunch of puritanical bumpkins but their opposition wasn't over her affair but the fact that she had no connections with the area and seemed to have no interest. Several locals quoted in the article say they were right; Truss is in New York more often then her constiuency, they claim.
Bagge is scathing about Truss's budget and what the Conservative Party is turning into. He is old school; Eton, Army and then worked as barrister. In retirement, he has done a lot of work for local charities.
I feel that if someone writes a book about "The Strange Death of the Conservative Party", he is one of the old style Conservatives that should be mentioned in contrast to the populist right-wingers.
Also, we’ve established that if @Sandpit is genuinely terrified of losing his £10,000 he can make an awkward hedge where the most he actually loses is £50 and it’s the bookies who end up paying me, in effect. So why would I not take that money off William Hill? Because I feel sorry for the poor shareholders of Ladbrokes?
Enough already. Some people will get the wrong idea that taking Sandpit's £10k troubles you.
Enough talk about betting??!!
Ok I can inform you that
1. Ukrainian motorway stops are mildly depressing 2. My bus is largely empty 3. Once you get out of Odessa ukraine feels totally normal. There is no sense of the war at all 4. There are two young women on my bus. Both stunning. A strike rate of 100% - which is not unusual for Ukraine
I’ve never seen a simple convincing cultural/genetic explanation why the women of Ukraine are so incredibly beautiful. But they really are. I believe @sandpit is married to one which will soften the blow if he loses his bet
Oh, by the way. let’s see photographic evidence of your tenner (that’s 500 of your Grivnas) actually being donated to a Ukranian charity, not to the barmaid’s cleavage fund or spent in the Bunny Ranch…
I won’t be in Ukraine then
But I will indeed provide photo evidence as I donate to whatever-you-desire
Well either you’re going to win the bet, or you’re going to lose the bet.
So you leave your tenner in Ukraine, and spend your one photo to show it, and if I lose I’ll come and find you with your winnings. Deal?
Deal
In fact let’s make it fun. I will do it in Kyiv. You can tell me exactly where to donate the money in Kyiv and I’ll take the photo
Then if I win you have to show up with £10k plus my £10
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
Reform - Much Ado About Nothing?
The Corbyn Years - Love's Labour's Lost
Rishi Sunak's Campaign - Comedy of Errors
Were you up for Rees-Mogg? - As You Like It
(I couldn't come up with two noble kinsmen....)
Channelling BJO
Talking of Corbyn AND Sunak's campaign.
Some are saying on here the Conservatives could finish on zero seats against Starmer. How much lower would their tally go if Sunak were facing Jez?
I think one issue for the Tories is that it’s not like another substantial figure is there to campaign and boost morale in the old core while Sunak disintegrates (the “don’t worry he will be gone soon and you want us in opposition” strategy). Cleverly could do it, a bit, I suppose. But what does his constituency look like? Otherwise, who? Boris could have, if he’d fancied it and had been standing. Cameron can’t because he’s obviously off post election. Who?
Can a PB expert answer a puzzle. The government itself says that 25% of all schoolchildren qualify for free school meals - over 2 million.
How is this possible in a prosperous country with a minimum wage and high levels of employment? I'm asking a maths/economics question, not a party political one. I live in an area in the bottom third economically, and this just does not seem credible.
I am a former expert in this area. FSM is a piggy back benefit - if you qualify for a particular benefit, you get FSMs.
There are so many people on some form of welfare, loads of kids qualify.
This is yet another hidden perverse incentive that has to be modelled when you look at the relationship between welfare and employment. Lots of Scottish benefits piggy back off UK Gov benefits, so there are even more disincentives to work than elsewhere in the UK for example.
These interactions can be flat - it's always worth not working - or threshold based, where a certain number of hours would tip you over an edge which meant you start to lose money. I vaguely recall 16 hours per week being one for some reason.
Thanks. However, the UK unemployment rate is about 4% and this should have some kind of link with the FSM rate, 25%, but it seems not to.
Why should it?
The UK's labour market reacts to economic trouble by suppressing wages rather than mass unemployment as in the past. That's why we have exceptionally high rates of in-work poverty (our OOW poverty rates are actually pretty good).
Given poverty is simply a measure of inequality based on median incomes, FSMs is a way to transfer some cash from those earning decent amounts of money to those who aren't. A side effect is that we help with childhood nutrition issues.
People are not getting my point. It's not that it's £10k. That's fine. Big bets are great. You win a lot if you win and lose a lot if you lose. Loser pays, winner takes it and says cheers thanks. All good.
But this isn't that. One side is just a nominal tenner. 1000/1 'bets' don't work between mates, either irl or digital. It's the imbalance not the amount.
But like I say, greenlighted on the basis that it won't happen and it's a fun way to generate a charity contribution.
Nice one sandpit and leon 🙂
Ok we get it. You’re a nice chap. You wouldn’t take the money. I would. I’m not as nice as you, and I wouldn’t even feel particularly bad about it as @Sandpit has ample time to hedge the bet if he is genuinely worried. So if he ends up losing £10k it’s because he’s dumb (which he obviously isnt) and I completely approve of taxing stupidity
Now we can move on
What are the odds of reform getting more votes than the Tories? THAT is an interesting concept
Quite tough for them - they have fewer candidates for a start. But absolutely possible
Your the next tranche of the refuk target market. Also need a lot of Conservative stay at home and LD switches too.
Yes not easy. It would be the first time since the 1920s that a third party outpolled one of the big two?
But if it’s ever going to happen now seems like the moment
Not easy, but you can't fault Rishi for effort. Just slightly worried he might not be able to keep the pace up though, a blunder every two days is hard to maintain.
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
Also, her party's name is utter shit.
"Utter shit" is indeed a poor name for a political party
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
But Shakespeare's tragedies all require a flawed HERO.
I think our PMs fall rather short in that department
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Tam Dalyell. Beat four future MPs: Michael Ancram, Alex Pollock, Jim Sillars, Kenny MacAskill
Not quite what I was looking for because Jim Sillars had already been an MP and I'm really looking for future politicians getting their first goes at being an MP like Tony Blair in Beaconsfield or Boris Johnson in Clwyd South or Jacob Rees-Mogg in Central Fife. But a really good spot, thanks.
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Tam Dalyell. Beat four future MPs: Michael Ancram, Alex Pollock, Jim Sillars, Kenny MacAskill
George Strauss beat FIVE future MPs -Frank Bryant -Clyde Wilson -Frank Markham -David Lane -Spencer Le Marchant
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
But who would do the acclaiming? It can't be MP's. There aren't any. It can't be members. That isn't practical. And what if there is no agreement anyways? (I don't see how there could be).
What do we think? Can reform get more votes than the Tories?
The polls say yes but the head says no. But is that normalcy bias? Everything about this election is abnormal
I reckon they have a 10% chance of beating the Tories on basic vote share. But I have plucked that figure out of my recently-Bessarabian butt
In that case my butt must be similar.
I think crossover in a poll has a chance to spark total collapse, but a greater chance of provoking a few people to return to prevent such a collapse.
So I think after the initial Faragasm Reform will fall back a bit, but not as much as they would have without Reform.
Yeah that’s where I am. Unfortunately. Because I’d love the Tories to be totally destroyed - I honestly think it would be better for them and the country. Their stupid wet blairite high tax high spend insane immigration social democracy has proved a total failure and we need a new right wing party with confidence and backbone
But, I have the melancholy sense that enough stupid loyal Tories will turn out to see them inch to a sort of decent score, and reform will fall back (tho we might get a brief exciting crossover in one or two polls)
The Tories will emerge with 100-150 seats is my guess, as things stand. frigging bad but not quite apocalyptic. Reform will get 10-15% and 1 MP - Farage
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Tam Dalyell. Beat four future MPs: Michael Ancram, Alex Pollock, Jim Sillars, Kenny MacAskill
George Strauss beat FIVE future MPs -Frank Bryant -Clyde Wilson -Frank Markham -David Lane -Spencer Le Marchant
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Tam Dalyell. Beat four future MPs: Michael Ancram, Alex Pollock, Jim Sillars, Kenny MacAskill
Not quite what I was looking for because Jim Sillars had already been an MP and I'm really looking for future politicians getting their first goes at being an MP like Tony Blair in Beaconsfield or Boris Johnson in Clwyd South or Jacob Rees-Mogg in Central Fife. But a really good spot, thanks.
I think my five MPs one might also suffer from that too. I'll stop my research now!
Comments
And yes, the thing with elections is they offer a moment of catharsis in defeat. I remember that feeling in 2019. Its was a sort of relief to know the Brexit fight was now completely over.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
Lacking a highly specific niche, the other explanation for a minor party is typically around ego.
I'm not saying that's strictly true, but that's a reasonable story he can tell himself. Egos are pretty resilient, particularly those of senior politicians.
If that prospect breaks through more into the public consciousness it could become a self fulfilling prophecy - they might regret it later, but a substrant of remaining Tory support might feel there is a benefit to helping form the successor party on the right.
Everything known about him points to the answer being "no", in a way that wasn't true of, say, John Major.
Politics is a rough trade, but there are degrees of roughness. Ultimately, Sunak has tried to cash hardman cheques that his psychological account can't support.
But they need some good news and some steady days to boost morale and stop spiralling.
Now I'll freely admit that T20 is a bit of a lottery, but I think Lancs have a much better chance than their 2.5 odds imply. Granted Notts are at home but it doesn't seem to have helped them so far.
Imagine if some by-passer dropped in and saw the site as and when @kinabalu’s perspective prevailed. They’d see grown men making bets then not actually paying up because they feel sorry for each other. pb would be the site where pussies go to make stupid bets no one honours. The site would die in weeks
OGH did not establish PB to see that happen!!
He might have psychologically have had enough, and if he quietly steps off the stage early he gets less of the blame.
https://theconversation.com/tattoos-associated-with-a-21-greater-risk-of-lymphoma-new-study-230826
- National Rebirth Party
- New United Kingdom Party
- The Yoruba Party in the UK
- Party of Women
- Homeland Party
- Communist Future
- Freedom Alliance
- The Sustainable Party
- Fairer Voting Party
- Pirate Party UK
- The Global Policymakers
- Open Party
- System Change
- Anew UK
- Consensus
- Britain Reborn
- FederalUK
- Democratic Liberation Party
- Science Party
- Climate Party
- Confelicity
- Scottish Unionist Party
- Free Palestine
- Our Precious World Party
- Count Binface Party
- The Autonomous Party
At least one of these I have seen a candidate for (not including Count Binface).It's not nice to be unemployed (I've been there in my youth) but many people in this country are feeling the squeeze because of the Tories goat rodeo, so they can't really expect too much sympathy.
Blaming it all on Rishi being crap (not that he has not contributed a lot) and not being enough like Reform, which most of them like the major talking points of, would fit the bill.
But that's part of the price for getting a share in the disposition of power over 70 million people.
Trooping the Colour next weekend might have the potential to spark some public worries about the King's health. Is Catherine going to be taking part, or will there be another grainy hostage video of her visiting a garden centre instead?
Isn't the Covid Inquiry Module 1 interim report due in a few weeks? There's certainly potential for trouble there.
Other foreseeables: School exam season, Euro football, Wimbledon, Eras Tour (oh god, are we going to get Swiftie Sunak again?), Glastonbury, School holidays in Scotland & NI. Plenty of potential there for tunnel-vision SpAds to trip the campaign up somehow...
Though this party seems like a mistake may have been made on the form.
Scotland - Unhyphenated
And these guys have the right idea, but it feels more like a cry for help
Save Us Now
But this isn't that. One side is just a nominal tenner. 1000/1 'bets' don't work between mates, either irl or digital. It's the imbalance not the amount.
But like I say, greenlighted on the basis that it won't happen and it's a fun way to generate a charity contribution.
Nice one sandpit and leon 🙂
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Assuming Richi makes it through today by hiding from journalists, what exactly does he think they are going to ask him about whenever he does finally emerge from the fridge?
Does he need an even bigger gaffe to get them off D-Day?
Anne Marie Trevelyan in Berwick is a prime example, backed whichever leader looked likely to win and give her a cabinet post, voted for Truss' kamikaze budget. She needs to get back out into the real world and feel the consequences.
Ok I can inform you that
1. Ukrainian motorway stops are mildly depressing
2. My bus is largely empty
3. Once you get out of Odessa ukraine feels totally normal. There is no sense of the war at all
4. There are two young women on my bus. Both stunning. A strike rate of 100% - which is not unusual for Ukraine
I’ve never seen a simple convincing cultural/genetic explanation why the women of Ukraine are so incredibly beautiful. But they really are. I believe @sandpit is married to one which will soften the blow if he loses his bet
Or alternately, Penny Mordaunt or Tom Tugendhat. I doubt they'd take it on, whereas Cameron might, with him having so much less to lose.
Speaking of, what happened to that nonsense Northern Independence Party that was getting online attention a year ago?
But there's equally no evidence that there are some massively talented Conservatives who the current party electoral system has screwed over. The fact is I think that we have an extremely poor political class, convinced of their own cynical cleverness, addicted to short term gimmicks, ignorant of anything except public relations and uninterested in facing short-term popularity to answer the nation's urgent problems. We can argue about the reasons for that - the rise of social media, Tony Blair's lamentable example of centrist mediocrity, the PPE-spad-MP career trajectory, etc - but until we solve the problem, I think we're stuck with a bunch of dismal politicians.
And the lack of economic growth, which they themselves largely cause means they don't have other people's money to spray around, as Blair did, so they can't buy voters off in the way that they used to.
The Corbyn Years - Love's Labour's Lost
Rishi Sunak's Campaign - Comedy of Errors
Were you up for Rees-Mogg? - As You Like It
(I couldn't come up with two noble kinsmen....)
You're travelling by bus? That's interesting, and unusual for you, I'd guess?
We need to see Sunak on a bus and not realising that you need to pay, or that he doesn't have his own special seat.
That''s why apparently bizarre things can happen in situations such as what we have. Also, if Sunak decided to step down, they migt not have any choice. I grant you, we are now probably reaching the outer rings of the wildly speculative, though..
Now we can move on
What are the odds of reform getting more votes than the Tories? THAT is an interesting concept
Quite tough for them - they have fewer candidates for a start. But absolutely possible
I'm not doing the homework, but I wonder about Tony Benn.
But I will indeed provide photo evidence as I donate to whatever-you-desire
Is that not a great way for 'them' to track their biggest opponents by knowing who the key figures are?
The polls say yes but the head says no. But is that normalcy bias? Everything about this election is abnormal
I reckon they have a 10% chance of beating the Tories on basic vote share. But I have plucked that figure out of my recently-Bessarabian butt
An absolutely dire media. Who keep indulging this bollocks whilst ridiculing and ostracising anyone who dares point out that the assumptions of the status quo ideology they grew up with simply haven't been working for 15 years.
I think crossover in a poll has a chance to spark total collapse, but a greater chance of provoking a few people to return to prevent such a collapse.
So I think after the initial Faragasm Reform will fall back a bit, but not as much as they would have without Reform.
The trouble with Dead Cat Theory is that you can only do it a couple of times before the room stinks of deceased felines.
So you leave your tenner in Ukraine, and spend your one photo to show it, and if I lose I’ll come and find you with your winnings. Deal?
I see they're now 20/1
So thanks to your fine recommendation I've now covered my bet with £20 on Sutton and Cheam
That's how I view things. People are different of course. But you'll be ok. Zero Con seats? You're £10 richer you shrewdie!
A tale told by an idiot. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.
But if it’s ever going to happen now seems like the moment
Bagge is scathing about Truss's budget and what the Conservative Party is turning into. He is old school; Eton, Army and then worked as barrister. In retirement, he has done a lot of work for local charities.
I feel that if someone writes a book about "The Strange Death of the Conservative Party", he is one of the old style Conservatives that should be mentioned in contrast to the populist right-wingers.
In fact let’s make it fun. I will do it in Kyiv. You can tell me exactly where to donate the money in Kyiv and I’ll take the photo
Then if I win you have to show up with £10k plus my £10
Talking of Corbyn AND Sunak's campaign.
Some are saying on here the Conservatives could finish on zero seats against Starmer. How much lower would their tally go if Sunak were facing Jez?
The UK's labour market reacts to economic trouble by suppressing wages rather than mass unemployment as in the past. That's why we have exceptionally high rates of in-work poverty (our OOW poverty rates are actually pretty good).
Given poverty is simply a measure of inequality based on median incomes, FSMs is a way to transfer some cash from those earning decent amounts of money to those who aren't. A side effect is that we help with childhood nutrition issues.
I think our PMs fall rather short in that department
-Frank Bryant
-Clyde Wilson
-Frank Markham
-David Lane
-Spencer Le Marchant
It can't be MP's. There aren't any.
It can't be members. That isn't practical.
And what if there is no agreement anyways? (I don't see how there could be).
But, I have the melancholy sense that enough stupid loyal Tories will turn out to see them inch to a sort of decent score, and reform will fall back (tho we might get a brief exciting crossover in one or two polls)
The Tories will emerge with 100-150 seats is my guess, as things stand. frigging bad but not quite
apocalyptic. Reform will get 10-15% and 1 MP - Farage
Which in turn would need something like Boris to ask his former voters to support Reform. In itself, something of an earthquake.
Could get very unpredictable if that happens though.