There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things
1 a female pb-er (um, I think) And 2. Committed Tory (even rarer)
Also might be under 50. We need these people
Moon has always been an interesting poster. Recently, in a turn no-one saw coming, she’s started getting things right.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
The really stupid thing is this *isn't* a snap election. There had to be an election within six months anyway and anyone sane would therefore have been fully prepared for one to be called at any moment.
As Starmer and Davey clearly were. Not so much Swinney but we can forgive that given the circumstances.
This is just pathetic incompetence by the whole party hierarchy. No wonder they're fighting to dodge blame like ferrets in a sack.
That is one reason I do not believe all these reports of MPs who were certain they had 4-5 more months.
Anyone with any contacts among MPs knows that even Cabinet Ministers have given wildly different predictions in private for the entirety of 2024 to date. Sure, like many people I assumed a July election was off the cards after not going in May, and so many MPs may have thought the same, but it was still just around the corner and they and the party had spent the first part of the year thinking it might be earlier, so they should have been prepared.
So I totally get the anger of MPs who will be out of a job earlier than they hoped, but none should have been caught flat footed, everyone was already on a war footing.
It goes a long way towards confirming my view of the calibre of our MPs, if I'm honest. Not to their advantage either.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
Why does anyone post any links on here? A: to share news, opinion, information, gossip, jokes...
I cannot imagine why you are so sore about Battery posting this?
Because Moon is annoyed their "actually the Tories are doing great" rubbish has failed.
She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem, then she had a Damascene conversion to being a Tory and then spent the last two weeks telling us Rishi is actually good and the public will produce a Tory victory.
Her judgement is a joke and she's been found out. That's why she's going off on one.
Some of the links posted here are just crap. I thought this one was useful, interesting and informative.
It does look a pretty full slate, some missing in Scotland it seems.
How do the Tories have 631? Minus 18 for NI, two for Chorley and Rotherham. Or do they have a candidate in Chorley or NI?
Tories I think are 635, they miss chorley and Rotherham but are standing 5 in NI
FPT: The Con 631 in GB....
I think with Independents multiple candidates per constituency are counted.
I suspect the same has happened here, 632 seats minus Chorley minus Rotherham but plus the double submission (but discounting the withdrawn candidate) in Spen Valley.
Iirc, I think NI did drop to 17 at some point in the boundary commissions work, but ended up back with 18.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Also, of course, you don't get the large traffic jams in areas where lots of people live, which is the issue leading to large numbers of particulates.
I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday. She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
Penny would be legendary if she had
a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly
b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.
Sadly, she doesn't.
It is not impossible that MPs will have been cheered by Penny Mordaunt's assertive performance yesterday but her next step in this autumn's leadership campaign is to retain her own seat and that looks touch and go.
Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.
About 2.6 years ago to be precise. That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
A Pedant asks: How is 'about 2.6 years ago' precise?
David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick. However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
I take a different view on the impact of the lack of keeness.
I think there might be some from the Labour direction, sure, but that will be exceeded by despondent Tories staying at home, so the net effect will still be to their benefit.
I don't think Galloway's mob or Reform will eat into them significantly, again as compared to the impact on the Tories (at least for Reform).
I get your drift but I think despondent Tory effect is already baked in to the polling, over keen 'Labour!' Is also baked in. (I think)
I consistently said that the Cons would wait until 2025 for the GE so was wrong about that.
But they did call it when we had had good growth figures, less bad inflation numbers, and it seems that Rishi was making a bet on interest rates at the time also.
So bonkers to call it but there was some thinking behind the decision.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Also the Tories are committing only to roll it back in London - and then only the extension, not the core. So they are basically rerunning a policy platform that didn’t work (checks notes) about 6 weeks ago.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
The really stupid thing is this *isn't* a snap election. There had to be an election within six months anyway and anyone sane would therefore have been fully prepared for one to be called at any moment.
As Starmer and Davey clearly were. Not so much Swinney but we can forgive that given the circumstances.
This is just pathetic incompetence by the whole party hierarchy. No wonder they're fighting to dodge blame like ferrets in a sack.
That is one reason I do not believe all these reports of MPs who were certain they had 4-5 more months.
Anyone with any contacts among MPs knows that even Cabinet Ministers have given wildly different predictions in private for the entirety of 2024 to date. Sure, like many people I assumed a July election was off the cards after not going in May, and so many MPs may have thought the same, but it was still just around the corner and they and the party had spent the first part of the year thinking it might be earlier, so they should have been prepared.
So I totally get the anger of MPs who will be out of a job earlier than they hoped, but none should have been caught flat footed, everyone was already on a war footing.
It goes a long way towards confirming my view of the calibre of our MPs, if I'm honest. Not to their advantage either.
Turns out many are quite able. Those are probably the quieter ones.
But with 650 MPs, even assuming for sake of argument the average MP is more able than the average person, or has better judgment etc, then you're still not looking at all that many genuinely impressive ones as a proportion of the whole.
I consistently said that the Cons would wait until 2025 for the GE so was wrong about that.
But they did call it when we had had good growth figures, less bad inflation numbers, and it seems that Rishi was making a bet on interest rates at the time also.
So bonkers to call it but there was some thinking behind the decision.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things
1 a female pb-er (um, I think) And 2. Committed Tory (even rarer)
Also might be under 50. We need these people
Moon has always been an interesting poster. Recently, in a turn no-one saw coming, she’s started getting things right.
She was an interesting poster and I really enjoyed reading her posts before she became a ramper for the Tories - I don't think she actually is, it's just a silly game she's playing.
On predictions, she got May wrong and then said it would happen at the end of the year. To her credit, the reason for calling the election was bang on - and it factored into my initial view to back May too (although I went back on it).
She's just annoying me lately with this Tory ramping rubbish.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
Generally agree although I think the ULEZ is more froth tbh and a local rather than national dealbreaker. People also tend to be a bit naïve in believing the grifters who imply their three year old diesel Chelsea Tractor would be scrapped, before realising after implementation that it's only properly decrepit petrol vehicles and ten year old diesels from the emissions scandal era that are being clobbered. That probably does affect the rural group more because of the number of pickup trucks around but thems the breaks. I'm not sure that's going to swing votes to the Tories given their truly bloody awful rural policy record this parliament.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Doesn't matter - the politics of ULEZ are just really difficult anywhere outside London, Edinburgh, Bristol and so on. I should correct myself though - it's not just the few people who actually live in rural areas (20%), but everyone is provincial towns like say Peterborough.
The odds I have been following most closely are those on the Con v Reform match bet.
At one point this hit Cons 1.5, Reform 3 (£100s offered), although it is now 1.4 / 3.5 and the market is thinner.
This would be the biggest electoral shock in about a century. Plenty of cash to be made.
Problem is Reform aren't standing in a 100 or so seats - that gives the Conservatives a massive advantage because the only seat they aren't standing in is Rotherham...
Reform UK will beat the Tories in one of the four nations. Well, RefUK's allies, the TUV, will comfortably outpoll the Conservatives in NI.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Yes, which is why it’s infuriating when the city, where the country people don’t have a vote, decide to dislike cars in various ways.
Bonus points for doing things like putting up confusing signs saying “ULEZ Zone”, or enforcing with ANPR and civil ‘fines’, rather than physical barriers. How much do the politicians expect a random person from out of town to need to research, before approaching a city they’ve never been to before?
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things
1 a female pb-er (um, I think) And 2. Committed Tory (even rarer)
Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.
About 2.6 years ago to be precise. That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
A Pedant asks: How is 'about 2.6 years ago' precise?
2.6 years takes us to around 1-2 November 2021, which is a few days before Owen Paterson quit in disgrace.
It does look a pretty full slate, some missing in Scotland it seems.
How do the Tories have 631? Minus 18 for NI, two for Chorley and Rotherham. Or do they have a candidate in Chorley or NI?
Tories I think are 635, they miss chorley and Rotherham but are standing 5 in NI
FPT: The Con 631 in GB....
I think with Independents multiple candidates per constituency are counted.
I suspect the same has happened here, 632 seats minus Chorley minus Rotherham but plus the double submission (but discounting the withdrawn candidate) in Spen Valley.
Iirc, I think NI did drop to 17 at some point in the boundary commissions work, but ended up back with 18.
I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday. She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
Penny would be legendary if she had
a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly
b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.
Sadly, she doesn't.
But she does look a little like Catherine Deneuve, which is good enough for some of us of a certain age.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things
1 a female pb-er (um, I think) And 2. Committed Tory (even rarer)
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Doesn't matter - the politics of ULEZ are just really difficult anywhere outside London, Edinburgh, Bristol and so on. I should correct myself though - it's not just the few people who actually live in rural areas (20%), but everyone is provincial towns like say Peterborough.
Surely the pollution levels are pretty much inversely related to the areas where you most need a car?
I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday. She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
Penny would be legendary if she had
a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly
b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.
Sadly, she doesn't.
But she does look a little like Catherine Deneuve, which is good enough for some of us of a certain age.
She was bob-on with the snappy-leccy, so a big Conny-winny is not out of the question.
I know they say this, but what would've changed between now and (say) October? I doubt it would've been better, and Sunak would've made the same unforced errors then as he's been doing now.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Yes, which is why it’s infuriating when the city, where the country people don’t have a vote, decide to dislike cars in various ways.
Bonus points for doing things like putting up confusing signs saying “ULEZ Zone”, or enforcing with ANPR and civil ‘fines’, rather than physical barriers. How much do the politicians expect a random person from out of town to need to research, before approaching a city they’ve never been to before?
That cuts both ways. It's equally infuriating when a city of millions, who do have a vote, are disallowed from making policies that are positive to public health and the life of the city by people who don't actually live there. I also think it tends to be a false narrative anyway. The reason rural people need to drive into the city is because local services have been decimated, there are limited economic opportunities so young people have to work in towns and cities and public transport has been paired back to the point where you literally can't go anywhere without a car. Most rural communities had a railway station nearby in the 40s for example. Buses still ran unprofitable but important routes until the 80s. That's what should be offered to rural areas, rather than "wOkE LibERALs aRe CoMinG foR yoUR RANGe RoVER"
My reading is that Stodge thinks Conservatives are more likely to win than Labour in Croydon East, but the odds are 10/1. That's a huge level if disagreement, and suggests there are good betting opportunities out there in the markets - not necessarily saying that one side or the other has it right.
One message from him read: ‘As strange as it sounds, what I want to be doing most of all right now is playing cricket. But I have a sniper’s rifle in my hands right now instead of a bat, and a grenade instead of a ball.’
I know they say this, but what would've changed between now and (say) October? I doubt it would've been better, and Sunak would've made the same unforced errors then as he's been doing now.
I know they say this, but what would've changed between now and (say) October? I doubt it would've been better, and Sunak would've made the same unforced errors then as he's been doing now.
That's the thing - the best plan would have been to cut and run alongside the local elections...
It was obvious to most of us on here by the end of last year that there was no good time for the Tories to call an election, it was a matter of picking the least worst option...
And I did think now wouldn't be as bad as leaving it to later in the year - but later in the year Rishi wouldn't have skipped DDay.
David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick. However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
You've argued for a while that the Workers Party will do well, but look how few candidates they've managed to nominate, contrary to their boasting they'd stand in every constituency.
Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.
About 2.6 years ago to be precise. That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
A Pedant asks: How is 'about 2.6 years ago' precise?
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things
1 a female pb-er (um, I think) And 2. Committed Tory (even rarer)
I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday. She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
Penny would be legendary if she had
a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly
b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.
Sadly, she doesn't.
But she does look a little like Catherine Deneuve, which is good enough for some of us of a certain age.
She was bob-on with the snappy-leccy, so a big Conny-winny is not out of the question.
Who would have thought that Polari would be one of the great winners of this election. Natty Serves is pure Kenneth Williams
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
Now if the Tories had Rory Stewart, they'd be steam rolling Labour. But they kicked him out of the party and said bye bye to voters like me - who I am sure right now they'd love to have. That would probably produce them a 2015 majority.
Danny Finkelstein was right, the Johnson strategy long term results only in losing.
Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.
About 2.6 years ago to be precise. That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
I do think we will come to believe that this election was lost in 2022.
Johnson should have gone after Hartlepool and he'd have won a landslide then. That was the peak and it's been downhill ever since.
Of course, the Tories were never truly popular but SKS for a while was doing terribly. So the Tories had room there to defeat him.
“I do think we will come to believe that this election was lost in 2022.”
I disagree with you. I think the history books will write it up as lost before 2 years ago.
When the Conservative governments were brilliant in the 1980s under Lady Thatcher they had people like Bernard Ingham doing comms, not 12 year old spads. Lady Thatcher had cabinets made up from right across the Broad church party.
Choosing to be Downing Street echo chambers, get elected on lies, keep lying, and be known as liars, meant this government was doomed long before 2 years ago.
Have you heard about German reunification? One party said reunification is going to cost trillions, the other party said nah, it will only cost £13.50 (in currency translation at the time). The cheaper option got big election win. In following years when it totalled nearer trillions, it led to the other party getting a big win.
I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday. She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
Penny would be legendary if she had
a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly
b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.
Sadly, she doesn't.
But she does look a little like Catherine Deneuve, which is good enough for some of us of a certain age.
She can also, as I've mentioned many times, carry off a mixture of empathy and authority, which is rare in politicians.
The more hectoring combat with Rayner didn't suit her, but I found it fascinating how friendly and on good terms her and Rayner seemed to be at the end. I've preciously said the two were in a similar categor here, with Rayner having a little bit of a similar quality, and also sharing a somewhat complicated and unconventional backstory as women struggling to get on in their parties. They might be the next two leaders of their parties, if the Faragist faction breaks away.
One message from him read: ‘As strange as it sounds, what I want to be doing most of all right now is playing cricket. But I have a sniper’s rifle in my hands right now instead of a bat, and a grenade instead of a ball.’
Blimey, Bazball is just getting ever more extreme.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Doesn't matter - the politics of ULEZ are just really difficult anywhere outside London, Edinburgh, Bristol and so on. I should correct myself though - it's not just the few people who actually live in rural areas (20%), but everyone is provincial towns like say Peterborough.
Surely the pollution levels are pretty much inversely related to the areas where you most need a car?
Yes, that's my point.
If the Tories can bang on about ULEZ for 3 weeks and claim Labour (and Khan) are coming for the rest of the country, it will be effective. The weirdest thing is otherwise, Sunak is very keen on reducing lung disease if you consider his smoking ban. Surprised no one has pestered him on that.
(I realise that I am starting to sound like Moonrabbit... time will tell)
David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick. However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
You've argued for a while that the Workers Party will do well, but look how few candidates they've managed to nominate, contrary to their boasting they'd stand in every constituency.
The Workers couldn’t find £300k in deposits, and 600 vetted people to stand for them?
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
She's not been giving a major government job besides Leader of the House in years. I doubt that is purely down to jealousy from the sitting PM.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
I must say for me Horse's post is useful because, taken altogether, it hints that some Tories may be even be thinking of dumping Sunak now.
That would be fairly crazy at this stage, ofcourse, but then again this has been a crazy election period overall, so anything can happen,
Is it possible to dump a sitting PM? I know it might be in theory, but is there time?
He's PM until he can't command a majority in the House, but there is no House at the moment. He could be binned as leader of the Conservatives I suppose, but that would just be farcical. Prime Minister but not leader of the Conservatives (hello Chamberlain and Churchill - but that was in the middle of WWII - perhaps not that daft then given Sunak's National Service pledge).
There isn't time, and any attempt would push them into single figures in the polls.
It does look a pretty full slate, some missing in Scotland it seems.
How do the Tories have 631? Minus 18 for NI, two for Chorley and Rotherham. Or do they have a candidate in Chorley or NI?
Tories I think are 635, they miss chorley and Rotherham but are standing 5 in NI
FPT: The Con 631 in GB....
I think with Independents multiple candidates per constituency are counted.
I suspect the same has happened here, 632 seats minus Chorley minus Rotherham but plus the double submission (but discounting the withdrawn candidate) in Spen Valley.
Iirc, I think NI did drop to 17 at some point in the boundary commissions work, but ended up back with 18.
It dropped to 17 when the number of constituencies dropped to 600. IIRC, it's closer to 19 than 17 now.
The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.
I assume that devolution is not as passionately held in Wales as in Scotland? It's only a few Tories who seriously consider reversing it up here, and my impression is that Wales does not have the same left wing majority in favour of it.
That aside, I presume the announcement is not actually about Wales but rather stirring the petrolheads of England up.
First, Scottish independence is not particularly a left-wing cause. Don't make the mistake of assigning every policy you dislike to your opponents. Second, Scottish & Welsh independence movements are different: Scots more about economics; Welsh about culture.
Stodge, re Carshalton, Labour recovery in St Hellier, are you sure,? By Election St Hellier West May 2024 Conservative 1342, Lib Dem 1336, Lab 682, Lib Dem moved from third place
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Doesn't matter - the politics of ULEZ are just really difficult anywhere outside London, Edinburgh, Bristol and so on. I should correct myself though - it's not just the few people who actually live in rural areas (20%), but everyone is provincial towns like say Peterborough.
Surely the pollution levels are pretty much inversely related to the areas where you most need a car?
Yes, that's my point.
If the Tories can bang on about ULEZ for 3 weeks and claim Labour (and Khan) are coming for the rest of the country, it will be effective. The weirdest thing is otherwise, Sunak is very keen on reducing lung disease if you consider his smoking ban. Surprised no one has pestered him on that.
(I realise that I am starting to sound like Moonrabbit... time will tell)
Again, it didn’t work in London, where it actually exists. Not sure it can shift the dial anywhere else where it’s not even been proposed.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things
1 a female pb-er (um, I think) And 2. Committed Tory (even rarer)
David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick. However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
You've argued for a while that the Workers Party will do well, but look how few candidates they've managed to nominate, contrary to their boasting they'd stand in every constituency.
As much as Reform are probably light on organisational structures they have been polling reasonable numbers for awhile, have the pedigree of people voting for them in big numbers in previous incarnations going back years, and a ready made supply of disaffected Tories to help them with the organisation and candidates come election time.
Until the rather unique circumstances which led to Galloway winning a by-election what do the Workers Party have? No mass support, no history, a leader with some name recognition but nothing like Farage's, and a smaller pool of disaffected leftists who traditionally have numerous other splinter factions to vote for, and a hope to capitalise on Gaza.
And they would have to build on that in only 4 months.
David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick. However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
You've argued for a while that the Workers Party will do well, but look how few candidates they've managed to nominate, contrary to their boasting they'd stand in every constituency.
After the nominations came out I revised the 750,000 votes (predicated on 500 standing) to 225,000 (about 0.6%). GG has set a target of 200,000 votes and his reelection as minimum target I believe. I see no reason to alter those predictions from here on in. They had 240 or prospectives earlier in the week, I'm guessing moneys too tight to mention. They will easily outperform the likes of TUSC and SDP. We will see.
David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick. However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
That's why I think the Labour share could be a bit lower than the polls are saying.
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
Now if the Tories had Rory Stewart, they'd be steam rolling Labour. But they kicked him out of the party and said bye bye to voters like me - who I am sure right now they'd love to have. That would probably produce them a 2015 majority.
Danny Finkelstein was right, the Johnson strategy long term results only in losing.
Rory is voting Lib Dem at this election he has said.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
I must say for me Horse's post is useful because, taken altogether, it hints that some Tories may be even be thinking of dumping Sunak now.
That would be fairly crazy at this stage, ofcourse, but then again this has been a crazy election period overall, so anything can happen,
Is it possible to dump a sitting PM? I know it might be in theory, but is there time?
He's PM until he can't command a majority in the House, but there is no House at the moment. He could be binned as leader of the Conservatives I suppose, but that would just be farcical. Prime Minister but not leader of the Conservatives (hello Chamberlain and Churchill - but that was in the middle of WWII - perhaps not that daft then given Sunak's National Service pledge).
There isn't time, and any attempt would push them into single figures in the polls.
Deleted, as I realised I was repeating what you said.
David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick. However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
That's why I think the Labour share could be a bit lower than the polls are saying.
But do you think the gap between Labour and Tory will be appreciably lower? Because that feels more significant.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
Doesn't matter - the politics of ULEZ are just really difficult anywhere outside London, Edinburgh, Bristol and so on. I should correct myself though - it's not just the few people who actually live in rural areas (20%), but everyone is provincial towns like say Peterborough.
Surely the pollution levels are pretty much inversely related to the areas where you most need a car?
Yes, that's my point.
If the Tories can bang on about ULEZ for 3 weeks and claim Labour (and Khan) are coming for the rest of the country, it will be effective. The weirdest thing is otherwise, Sunak is very keen on reducing lung disease if you consider his smoking ban. Surprised no one has pestered him on that.
(I realise that I am starting to sound like Moonrabbit... time will tell)
Again, it didn’t work in London, where it actually exists. Not sure it can shift the dial anywhere else where it’s not even been proposed.
It's pretty clear from the distribution of results that ULEZ did make a difference, just not enough.
I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday. She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
Penny would be legendary if she had
a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly
b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.
Sadly, she doesn't.
But she does look a little like Catherine Deneuve, which is good enough for some of us of a certain age.
She was bob-on with the snappy-leccy, so a big Conny-winny is not out of the question.
Who would have thought that Polari would be one of the great winners of this election. Natty Serves is pure Kenneth Williams
I was astonished to learn recently that Polari was a derivative of the language used around the Barbary coast a few centuries back.
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
She's not been giving a major government job besides Leader of the House in years. I doubt that is purely down to jealousy from the sitting PM.
Jealousy probably is why Liz Truss sidelined Mordaunt as Leader of the House (cf Boris and JRM) but it backfired when HMQ's demise made Penny the most famous sword-carrier in the land, eclipsing Truss herself for most of her seven weeks in office.
Stodge, re Carshalton, Labour recovery in St Hellier, are you sure,? By Election St Hellier West May 2024 Conservative 1342, Lib Dem 1336, Lab 682, Lib Dem moved from third place
I live locally.
I am not sure what Stodge's baseline is, but I think the bigger point is that only half of St Helier is in the Carshalton constituency.
'Back to Newbury now where Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has been speaking to reporters after his game of tennis. One of topics he was asked was about the Conservatives’ pledge to reverse the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) expansion in London - something we reported on a little earlier.
The Lib Dem leader responded saying: "The Conservatives have had a year to do this since the Labour mayor brought it in, they've not done it. It's funny that they come up with these policies at election time.”'- BBC Liveblog
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
Now if the Tories had Rory Stewart, they'd be steam rolling Labour. But they kicked him out of the party and said bye bye to voters like me - who I am sure right now they'd love to have. That would probably produce them a 2015 majority.
Danny Finkelstein was right, the Johnson strategy long term results only in losing.
Rory is voting Lib Dem at this election he has said.
Telling all the remainers like Stewar, Hammond, Grieve, Gauke that they shouldn't be Tories any more - another 15 million IQ move from Dom.
I do wonder if absent some really Big Thing, this election campaign is over? We have upcoming football and tennis and frankly, any other distraction you can take from politics before we vote.
I thought you were getting really good feedback on the doorstep, though?
Yes, but when the PM is blasting away at his own feet with large calibre weaponry, it is not helpful!
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
Now if the Tories had Rory Stewart, they'd be steam rolling Labour. But they kicked him out of the party and said bye bye to voters like me - who I am sure right now they'd love to have. That would probably produce them a 2015 majority.
Danny Finkelstein was right, the Johnson strategy long term results only in losing.
Rory is voting Lib Dem at this election he has said.
Telling all the remainers like Stewar, Hammond, Grieve, Gauke that they shouldn't be Tories any more - another 15 million IQ move from Dom.
There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
I must say for me Horse's post is useful because, taken altogether, it hints that some Tories may be even be thinking of dumping Sunak now.
That would be fairly crazy at this stage, ofcourse, but then again this has been a crazy election period overall, so anything can happen,
Is it possible to dump a sitting PM? I know it might be in theory, but is there time?
He's PM until he can't command a majority in the House, but there is no House at the moment. He could be binned as leader of the Conservatives I suppose, but that would just be farcical. Prime Minister but not leader of the Conservatives (hello Chamberlain and Churchill - but that was in the middle of WWII - perhaps not that daft then given Sunak's National Service pledge).
There isn't time, and any attempt would push them into single figures in the polls.
He can’t be binned as leader of the Conservatives against his will, because there’s no 1922 committee because there’s no MPs.
I’ve learned the bitter lesson of my Chisinau-Odessa bus-horror. I’ve taken one slow-release Tramadol, I have spares in my pocket. I also have a metal cup and a bottle of home made Moldovan rosehip vodka given me by the estimable Sergiu Hangunu, back in Gagauzia in the cellar-distillery of his ancestral homestead by the mighty Dnieper where his wife Emilia taught me to make Moldova’s smallest sarmale*. Here she is showing me the trick
Comments
Moons response was bizarre.
I think with Independents multiple candidates per constituency are counted.
I suspect the same has happened here, 632 seats minus Chorley minus Rotherham but plus the double submission (but discounting the withdrawn candidate) in Spen Valley.
Iirc, I think NI did drop to 17 at some point in the boundary commissions work, but ended up back with 18.
But they did call it when we had had good growth figures, less bad inflation numbers, and it seems that Rishi was making a bet on interest rates at the time also.
So bonkers to call it but there was some thinking behind the decision.
*thinks hard for 5 seconds*
Yes.
But with 650 MPs, even assuming for sake of argument the average MP is more able than the average person, or has better judgment etc, then you're still not looking at all that many genuinely impressive ones as a proportion of the whole.
On predictions, she got May wrong and then said it would happen at the end of the year. To her credit, the reason for calling the election was bang on - and it factored into my initial view to back May too (although I went back on it).
She's just annoying me lately with this Tory ramping rubbish.
Labour leads by 27% in Wales.
🏴 Welsh Westminster Voting Intention (5-7 June):
Labour 45% (+2)
Reform UK 18% (+3)
Conservative 18% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 11% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 5% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 18-19 May
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-welsh-w…
https://x.com/sirstevotimothy/status/1798760005820404047?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
A lot of Reform rampers are about to explode in excitement though.
Bonus points for doing things like putting up confusing signs saying “ULEZ Zone”, or enforcing with ANPR and civil ‘fines’, rather than physical barriers. How much do the politicians expect a random person from out of town to need to research, before approaching a city they’ve never been to before?
Could MoonRabbit and BatteryCorrectHorse be one and the same?
In fact could the rest of you *all* be one and the same and I waste my days arguing, agreeing, berating and liking the same person in multiple guises?
Leon, is that you...?
A short history of cricket in Ukraine"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-short-history-of-cricket-in-ukraine/
- The Tories about three years ago about Keir Starmer.
Children from all around the continent join the French Army Choir to sing "Ode to Joy" on Omaha Beach
https://x.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1798746817854943503
Couldn't the French Army have scraped together some musicians who knew the tune? This sounds like a primary school concert.
6.8 / 7.6 with BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223276482
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
🏴 Welsh Westminster Voting Intention (5-7 June):
Labour 45% (+2)
Reform UK 18% (+3)
Conservative 18% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 11% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 5% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 18-19 May (REDFIELD)
I doubt it would've been better, and Sunak would've made the same unforced errors then as he's been doing now.
One message from him read: ‘As strange as it sounds, what I want to be doing most of all right now is playing cricket. But I have a sniper’s rifle in my hands right now instead of a bat, and a grenade instead of a ball.’
It was obvious to most of us on here by the end of last year that there was no good time for the Tories to call an election, it was a matter of picking the least worst option...
And I did think now wouldn't be as bad as leaving it to later in the year - but later in the year Rishi wouldn't have skipped DDay.
Yes, I know it'd be pretty germanic, but still.
Now if the Tories had Rory Stewart, they'd be steam rolling Labour. But they kicked him out of the party and said bye bye to voters like me - who I am sure right now they'd love to have. That would probably produce them a 2015 majority.
Danny Finkelstein was right, the Johnson strategy long term results only in losing.
I disagree with you. I think the history books will write it up as lost before 2 years ago.
When the Conservative governments were brilliant in the 1980s under Lady Thatcher they had people like Bernard Ingham doing comms, not 12 year old spads. Lady Thatcher had cabinets made up from right across the Broad church party.
Choosing to be Downing Street echo chambers, get elected on lies, keep lying, and be known as liars, meant this government was doomed long before 2 years ago.
Have you heard about German reunification? One party said reunification is going to cost trillions, the other party said nah, it will only cost £13.50 (in currency translation at the time). The cheaper option got big election win. In following years when it totalled nearer trillions, it led to the other party getting a big win.
The more hectoring combat with Rayner didn't suit her, but I found it fascinating how friendly and on good terms her and Rayner seemed to be at the end. I've preciously said the two were in a similar categor here, with Rayner having a little bit of a similar quality, and also sharing a somewhat complicated and unconventional backstory as women struggling to get on in their parties. They might be the next two leaders of their parties, if the Faragist faction breaks away.
Likewise Badenoch as I posted the other day.
The Tories need to give up on these silly culture war debating points. You've won, Labour have adopted your policy.
If the Tories can bang on about ULEZ for 3 weeks and claim Labour (and Khan) are coming for the rest of the country, it will be effective. The weirdest thing is otherwise, Sunak is very keen on reducing lung disease if you consider his smoking ban. Surprised no one has pestered him on that.
(I realise that I am starting to sound like Moonrabbit... time will tell)
I know it might be in theory, but is there time?
He's PM until he can't command a majority in the House, but there is no House at the moment.
He could be binned as leader of the Conservatives I suppose, but that would just be farcical. Prime Minister but not leader of the Conservatives (hello Chamberlain and Churchill - but that was in the middle of WWII - perhaps not that daft then given Sunak's National Service pledge).
There isn't time, and any attempt would push them into single figures in the polls.
IIRC, it's closer to 19 than 17 now.
By Election St Hellier West May 2024 Conservative 1342, Lib Dem 1336, Lab 682, Lib Dem moved from third place
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predestination_(film)
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_You_Zombies
And possibly all built out of one time-travelling electronUntil the rather unique circumstances which led to Galloway winning a by-election what do the Workers Party have? No mass support, no history, a leader with some name recognition but nothing like Farage's, and a smaller pool of disaffected leftists who traditionally have numerous other splinter factions to vote for, and a hope to capitalise on Gaza.
And they would have to build on that in only 4 months.
It wasn't going to happen.
I see no reason to alter those predictions from here on in.
They had 240 or prospectives earlier in the week, I'm guessing moneys too tight to mention.
They will easily outperform the likes of TUSC and SDP.
We will see.
Didn't several ULEZ hating areas record swings to Khan?
I am not sure what Stodge's baseline is, but I think the bigger point is that only half of St Helier is in the Carshalton constituency.
The Lib Dem leader responded saying: "The Conservatives have had a year to do this since the Labour mayor brought it in, they've not done it. It's funny that they come up with these policies at election time.”'- BBC Liveblog
Davey has spotted the little wrinkle there.
Can't win in London so change the voting system
Can't win in London with FPTP so remove devolution altogether
This is not a serious party anymore.
I just think voters generally have tuned out.
Reform, Green, and LDs all have different candidates, as do Labour for obvious reasons, so it's just the Tory who was up against Galloway last time.
I’ve learned the bitter lesson of my Chisinau-Odessa bus-horror. I’ve taken one slow-release Tramadol, I have spares in my pocket. I also have a metal cup and a bottle of home made Moldovan rosehip vodka given me by the estimable Sergiu Hangunu, back in Gagauzia in the cellar-distillery of his ancestral homestead by the mighty Dnieper where his wife Emilia taught me to make Moldova’s smallest sarmale*. Here she is showing me the trick
*I love writing sentences like that