I think one issue for the Tories is that it’s not like another substantial figure is there to campaign and boost morale in the old core while Sunak disintegrates (the “don’t worry he will be gone soon and you want us in opposition” strategy). Cleverly could do it, a bit, I suppose. But what does his constituency look like? Otherwise, who? Boris could have, if he’d fancied it and had been standing. Cameron can’t because he’s obviously off post election. Who?
This week has seen Badenoch have a go, and last night was Mordaunt's chance to shine.
Obvously Sunak is worse than mediocre, but it really isn't obvious that there is anyone better. Putting up Boris might remind some Reform wobblers why they liked the Conservatives, but at the cost of annoying everyone else. Dave is a class act, but he's not a candidate. Hunt and Cleverly are technically the other big beasts in the government, but... yeah.
Où est la masse de manœuvre? Aucune
On what basis is Dave “I lost an unloseable referendum that I chose to call” Cameron a “class act”? Seriously? What is it? Is it the brilliant coalition government of 2010-2015 which saw notable austerity for no gain whatsoever as incomes flatlined? Is it his superb foreign policy which saw the terrible failure of Libya? What is it?
There is precisely nil evidence for Cameron being a good political leader let alone a “class act”
Bets to be settled within 28 days of the election.
AUDIT TRAIL
Leon: SEMI SERIOUS QUESTION. What are the odds of the Tories getting ZERO seats? In 2019 their safest seat was South Holland and the Deepings, which not only has a superb name but also seems to be the kind of place that might chuck some votes at Reform, and in an extreme case let Labour through. Yes yes yes extremely unlikely given the 2019 result. https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3744/election/397 .[e]
But how unlikely? What are the odds on the Tories returning literally NO MPs
Sandpit: I’ll give you a tenner at 100/1. (You can give the tenner to a Ukranian charity while you’re there).[m]
Leon: Make it 1000/1 and you’re on.[f]
Sandpit: Go on then. I’m on the hook for ten grand if the Tories get no seats at all.[n]
Leon: Are you serious? You will have to give me £10,000 if I win. That’s a lot of money but I will hold you to it - for the sake of the site’s reputation. Are you sure?[g]
Sandpit: Yes I’m good for the ten bags.[o]
Leon: Hah! I admire your bravery. I’m not sure I’d offer this bet. Coz it could happen and all you stand to gain is a tenner. But a bet is a bet. If - when! - I lose I am happy to pay it to you or a charity of your choosing.[h]
Sandpit: I don’t want the tenner, leave it in Ukraine with a charity of your choosing.[p]
Sandpit: Okay. It’s a very specific bet, that the Conservative & Unionist Party have precisely zero seats in the new Parliament. TBH I first thought 1000/1 before writing 100/1, and perhaps I should have met you half way and said 500/1.[q]
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
But who would do the acclaiming? It can't be MP's. There aren't any. It can't be members. That isn't practical. And what if there is no agreement anyways? (I don't see how there could be).
I think all of this would only arise if Sunak unexpectedly decided to exit stage left. Just like he unexpectedly decided to call an election early.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
But who would do the acclaiming? It can't be MP's. There aren't any. It can't be members. That isn't practical. And what if there is no agreement anyways? (I don't see how there could be).
I'd guess that the party's chair would step up to see the election through - currently Ric Holden.
If he wasn't up for it, it would fall to the board to find some other temporary fix until the new 1922 Ctte could run a proper leadership contest.
The Reform party is clearly right of centre on the whole, on some topics like immigration, well to the right. Their efforts at this election are going to result in the other right of centre party getting annihilated and a solid Labour majority, enough to pretty much guarantee them 10 years in power (by which time a significant number of the Reform electorate will be dead).
So, they are going to severely damage a party which is not pure enough, in their view, so that a party they vehemently oppose becomes the government and sets government policy in a way they are really not going to like for the next decade. There are words for this type of behaviour but, given its a family site I will restrict myself to irrational and self-harming.
The logic is that out of the ashes of the Tories something better (and very probably even less electable) will rise. Well, good luck with that.
Pretty much the same analysis can be applied to Alba but that's all to the good, of course.
People are not getting my point. It's not that it's £10k. That's fine. Big bets are great. You win a lot if you win and lose a lot if you lose. Loser pays, winner takes it and says cheers thanks. All good.
But this isn't that. One side is just a nominal tenner. 1000/1 'bets' don't work between mates, either irl or digital. It's the imbalance not the amount.
But like I say, greenlighted on the basis that it won't happen and it's a fun way to generate a charity contribution.
Nice one sandpit and leon 🙂
Ok we get it. You’re a nice chap. You wouldn’t take the money. I would. I’m not as nice as you, and I wouldn’t even feel particularly bad about it as @Sandpit has ample time to hedge the bet if he is genuinely worried. So if he ends up losing £10k it’s because he’s dumb (which he obviously isnt) and I completely approve of taxing stupidity
Now we can move on
What are the odds of reform getting more votes than the Tories? THAT is an interesting concept
Quite tough for them - they have fewer candidates for a start. But absolutely possible
Your the next tranche of the refuk target market. Also need a lot of Conservative stay at home and LD switches too.
Yes not easy. It would be the first time since the 1920s that a third party outpolled one of the big two?
But if it’s ever going to happen now seems like the moment
That's difficult to answer because one of the reasons the Liberals collapsed was their tendency to stand candidates against each other during their 19 years of factionalist suicide (roughly 1916-1935) which exaggerated their problems.
Not quite like the Conservatives and Reform, though there is a pleasing echo there. United, they lose, divided they are destroyed. I suppose the question is- if you did stick Con and Ref togehter, how many centrists would flake off? (Whatever it is that counts as centrist in today's Conservative Party.)
Bets to be settled within 28 days of the election.
AUDIT TRAIL
Leon: SEMI SERIOUS QUESTION. What are the odds of the Tories getting ZERO seats? In 2019 their safest seat was South Holland and the Deepings, which not only has a superb name but also seems to be the kind of place that might chuck some votes at Reform, and in an extreme case let Labour through. Yes yes yes extremely unlikely given the 2019 result. https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3744/election/397 .[e]
But how unlikely? What are the odds on the Tories returning literally NO MPs
Sandpit: I’ll give you a tenner at 100/1. (You can give the tenner to a Ukranian charity while you’re there).[m]
Leon: Make it 1000/1 and you’re on.[f]
Sandpit: Go on then. I’m on the hook for ten grand if the Tories get no seats at all.[n]
Leon: Are you serious? You will have to give me £10,000 if I win. That’s a lot of money but I will hold you to it - for the sake of the site’s reputation. Are you sure?[g]
Sandpit: Yes I’m good for the ten bags.[o]
Leon: Hah! I admire your bravery. I’m not sure I’d offer this bet. Coz it could happen and all you stand to gain is a tenner. But a bet is a bet. If - when! - I lose I am happy to pay it to you or a charity of your choosing.[h]
Sandpit: I don’t want the tenner, leave it in Ukraine with a charity of your choosing.[p]
Sandpit: Okay. It’s a very specific bet, that the Conservative & Unionist Party have precisely zero seats in the new Parliament. TBH I first thought 1000/1 before writing 100/1, and perhaps I should have met you half way and said 500/1.[q]
I hope both of them have paid you your 2% commission for all that!
WHEN I get my £10,000 I shall invite @Sandpit, @viewcode and @kinabalu to dinner (on me) to watch the handover of the cash. @kinabalu is invited so he can see how true gentlemen behave
Then we get hammered. I choose the venue. I’m thinking Bentleys or Scott’s
I think one issue for the Tories is that it’s not like another substantial figure is there to campaign and boost morale in the old core while Sunak disintegrates (the “don’t worry he will be gone soon and you want us in opposition” strategy). Cleverly could do it, a bit, I suppose. But what does his constituency look like? Otherwise, who? Boris could have, if he’d fancied it and had been standing. Cameron can’t because he’s obviously off post election. Who?
This week has seen Badenoch have a go, and last night was Mordaunt's chance to shine.
Obvously Sunak is worse than mediocre, but it really isn't obvious that there is anyone better. Putting up Boris might remind some Reform wobblers why they liked the Conservatives, but at the cost of annoying everyone else. Dave is a class act, but he's not a candidate. Hunt and Cleverly are technically the other big beasts in the government, but... yeah.
Où est la masse de manœuvre? Aucune
On what basis is Dave “I lost an unloseable referendum that I chose to call” Cameron a “class act”? Seriously? What is it? Is it the brilliant coalition government of 2010-2015 which saw notable austerity for no gain whatsoever as incomes flatlined? Is it his superb foreign policy which saw the terrible failure of Libya? What is it?
There is precisely nil evidence for Cameron being a good political leader let alone a “class act”
Well, he won a majority in a General Election, something only two Tory leaders have done in 32 years. So there’s that.
Edit: indeed one of only three people who have led their party to a majority in 32 years.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
We return to the benefits of a more proportional system. There are many flavours of right wing, many flavours of left, and even a few different flavours of liberal centrist. Let people vote for, or indeed belong to, a party that represents their world view and then let compromises be made transparently through the forming of coalitions rather than opaquely through the politicking of factions.
After having missed the importance of D-Day is there anything else in the calendar that Rishi's team might have missed?
Trooping the Colour next weekend might have the potential to spark some public worries about the King's health. Is Catherine going to be taking part, or will there be another grainy hostage video of her visiting a garden centre instead?
Isn't the Covid Inquiry Module 1 interim report due in a few weeks? There's certainly potential for trouble there.
Other foreseeables: School exam season, Euro football, Wimbledon, Eras Tour (oh god, are we going to get Swiftie Sunak again?), Glastonbury, School holidays in Scotland & NI. Plenty of potential there for tunnel-vision SpAds to trip the campaign up somehow...
A lot of those don't really arise, because Sunak and his family will be leaving for a two-week holiday on 26 June.
It was booked before he decided to call an election.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
For me that is the optimum outcome of the likely scenarios
Give the British people an actual choice. An ACTUAL right wing party versus an actually left wing Labour. Then the people choose. If they want socialism, so be it
Never that simple. Italy has an 'actual right wing' government and leader. It has tacked straight to the centre.
It would be fun if these 'actual' left and right parties spelt out in remorseless detail what they want and how they are going to get there.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Tam Dalyell. Beat four future MPs: Michael Ancram, Alex Pollock, Jim Sillars, Kenny MacAskill
George Strauss beat FIVE future MPs -Frank Bryant -Clyde Wilson -Frank Markham -David Lane -Spencer Le Marchant
Woohoo, I think that's a winner.
If it is only future MPs, then four might be the upper limit
See Winston Churchlill
William Joynson-Hicks (defeated 1906, elected 1908) Edwyn Scrymgeour (defeated 1908, elected 1922 for Scottish Prohibition, whoever they were) James Ranger (defeated 1931, elected 1945) Arthur Latham (defeated 1959, elected 1969)
He beat various others who had already been MPs like Walton Newbold and Arthur Comyns Carr.
Bets to be settled within 28 days of the election.
AUDIT TRAIL
Leon: SEMI SERIOUS QUESTION. What are the odds of the Tories getting ZERO seats? In 2019 their safest seat was South Holland and the Deepings, which not only has a superb name but also seems to be the kind of place that might chuck some votes at Reform, and in an extreme case let Labour through. Yes yes yes extremely unlikely given the 2019 result. https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3744/election/397 . But how unlikely? What are the odds on the Tories returning literally NO MPs.[e]
Sandpit: I’ll give you a tenner at 100/1. (You can give the tenner to a Ukranian charity while you’re there).[m]
Leon: Make it 1000/1 and you’re on.[f]
Sandpit: Go on then. I’m on the hook for ten grand if the Tories get no seats at all.[n]
Leon: Are you serious? You will have to give me £10,000 if I win. That’s a lot of money but I will hold you to it - for the sake of the site’s reputation. Are you sure?[g]
Sandpit: Yes I’m good for the ten bags.[o]
Leon: Hah! I admire your bravery. I’m not sure I’d offer this bet. Coz it could happen and all you stand to gain is a tenner. But a bet is a bet. If - when! - I lose I am happy to pay it to you or a charity of your choosing.[h]
Sandpit: I don’t want the tenner, leave it in Ukraine with a charity of your choosing.[p]
Sandpit: Okay. It’s a very specific bet, that the Conservative & Unionist Party have precisely zero seats in the new Parliament. TBH I first thought 1000/1 before writing 100/1, and perhaps I should have met you half way and said 500/1.[q]
Hello from sunny Steichen. There is something blowing in the wind. Tory voters seems absolutely enraged. Three people who voted Tory last time have raised Normandy with me. And then the political takedown of David Duguid. To say they are not happy is an understatement.
Had a picture taken with the SNP candidate who had a team out. Funny watching people just say “no” to them. As we were on the same street briefly! What issue do SNP last time voters raise? Public services and broken promises…
Bets to be settled within 28 days of the election.
AUDIT TRAIL
Leon: SEMI SERIOUS QUESTION. What are the odds of the Tories getting ZERO seats? In 2019 their safest seat was South Holland and the Deepings, which not only has a superb name but also seems to be the kind of place that might chuck some votes at Reform, and in an extreme case let Labour through. Yes yes yes extremely unlikely given the 2019 result. https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3744/election/397 .[e]
But how unlikely? What are the odds on the Tories returning literally NO MPs
Sandpit: I’ll give you a tenner at 100/1. (You can give the tenner to a Ukranian charity while you’re there).[m]
Leon: Make it 1000/1 and you’re on.[f]
Sandpit: Go on then. I’m on the hook for ten grand if the Tories get no seats at all.[n]
Leon: Are you serious? You will have to give me £10,000 if I win. That’s a lot of money but I will hold you to it - for the sake of the site’s reputation. Are you sure?[g]
Sandpit: Yes I’m good for the ten bags.[o]
Leon: Hah! I admire your bravery. I’m not sure I’d offer this bet. Coz it could happen and all you stand to gain is a tenner. But a bet is a bet. If - when! - I lose I am happy to pay it to you or a charity of your choosing.[h]
Sandpit: I don’t want the tenner, leave it in Ukraine with a charity of your choosing.[p]
Sandpit: Okay. It’s a very specific bet, that the Conservative & Unionist Party have precisely zero seats in the new Parliament. TBH I first thought 1000/1 before writing 100/1, and perhaps I should have met you half way and said 500/1.[q]
I hope both of them have paid you your 2% commission for all that!
WHEN I get my £10,000 I shall invite @Sandpit, @viewcode and @kinabalu to dinner (on me) to watch the handover of the cash. @kinabalu is invited so he can see how true gentlemen behave
Then we get hammered. I choose the venue. I’m thinking Bentleys or Scott’s
It’s a shame there’s not a counter-bet whereby you hand over 10k if, say, the Tories are largest party. Symmetry.
The Reform party is clearly right of centre on the whole, on some topics like immigration, well to the right. Their efforts at this election are going to result in the other right of centre party getting annihilated and a solid Labour majority, enough to pretty much guarantee them 10 years in power (by which time a significant number of the Reform electorate will be dead).
So, they are going to severely damage a party which is not pure enough, in their view, so that a party they vehemently oppose becomes the government and sets government policy in a way they are really not going to like for the next decade. There are words for this type of behaviour but, given its a family site I will restrict myself to irrational and self-harming.
The logic is that out of the ashes of the Tories something better (and very probably even less electable) will rise. Well, good luck with that.
Pretty much the same analysis can be applied to Alba but that's all to the good, of course.
The Conservatives would have been taken to the cleaners whether Reform fielded 0 candidates or 600
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
We’re witnessing the Owen Jonesing of the Conservatives. Purity tests usually lead to electoral defeat.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
We return to the benefits of a more proportional system. There are many flavours of right wing, many flavours of left, and even a few different flavours of liberal centrist. Let people vote for, or indeed belong to, a party that represents their world view and then let compromises be made transparently through the forming of coalitions rather than opaquely through the politicking of factions.
Yes I agree with that. It’s time to dump FPTP. Its the one massive issue on which I’ve changed my mind during my days on PB
Is FPTP working for Britain? Are we well governed? No and no. It is too hard for new parties to break through bringing new ideas - from left or right or all places between
Enough. Rip it up and start again with some form of PR. That’s now my firm belief and I used to be absolutely opposed to this
I think one issue for the Tories is that it’s not like another substantial figure is there to campaign and boost morale in the old core while Sunak disintegrates (the “don’t worry he will be gone soon and you want us in opposition” strategy). Cleverly could do it, a bit, I suppose. But what does his constituency look like? Otherwise, who? Boris could have, if he’d fancied it and had been standing. Cameron can’t because he’s obviously off post election. Who?
This week has seen Badenoch have a go, and last night was Mordaunt's chance to shine.
Obvously Sunak is worse than mediocre, but it really isn't obvious that there is anyone better. Putting up Boris might remind some Reform wobblers why they liked the Conservatives, but at the cost of annoying everyone else. Dave is a class act, but he's not a candidate. Hunt and Cleverly are technically the other big beasts in the government, but... yeah.
Où est la masse de manœuvre? Aucune
On what basis is Dave “I lost an unloseable referendum that I chose to call” Cameron a “class act”? Seriously? What is it? Is it the brilliant coalition government of 2010-2015 which saw notable austerity for no gain whatsoever as incomes flatlined? Is it his superb foreign policy which saw the terrible failure of Libya? What is it?
There is precisely nil evidence for Cameron being a good political leader let alone a “class act”
He managed six years before his government blew up, which is more than his last three successors managed between them.
But fair enough. I'll substitute "relatively classy" for "class". After all, the reason for bringing him back was the lack of plausible alternatives.
He was asked about amending the Equality Act, and replied "We will not want to amend the Act, it’s not needed... This, to be honest, is a distraction from the election campaign."
Susan Dalgety claims that he said women's rights are a distraction, but she's lying.
I think one issue for the Tories is that it’s not like another substantial figure is there to campaign and boost morale in the old core while Sunak disintegrates (the “don’t worry he will be gone soon and you want us in opposition” strategy). Cleverly could do it, a bit, I suppose. But what does his constituency look like? Otherwise, who? Boris could have, if he’d fancied it and had been standing. Cameron can’t because he’s obviously off post election. Who?
This week has seen Badenoch have a go, and last night was Mordaunt's chance to shine.
Obvously Sunak is worse than mediocre, but it really isn't obvious that there is anyone better. Putting up Boris might remind some Reform wobblers why they liked the Conservatives, but at the cost of annoying everyone else. Dave is a class act, but he's not a candidate. Hunt and Cleverly are technically the other big beasts in the government, but... yeah.
Où est la masse de manœuvre? Aucune
On what basis is Dave “I lost an unloseable referendum that I chose to call” Cameron a “class act”? Seriously? What is it? Is it the brilliant coalition government of 2010-2015 which saw notable austerity for no gain whatsoever as incomes flatlined? Is it his superb foreign policy which saw the terrible failure of Libya? What is it?
There is precisely nil evidence for Cameron being a good political leader let alone a “class act”
He managed six years before his government blew up, which is more than his last three successors managed between them.
But fair enough. I'll substitute "relatively classy" for "class". After all, the reason for bringing him back was the lack of plausible alternatives.
Its more than his four successors managed between them.
Hello from sunny Steichen. There is something blowing in the wind. Tory voters seems absolutely enraged. Three people who voted Tory last time have raised Normandy with me. And then the political takedown of David Duguid. To say they are not happy is an understatement.
Had a picture taken with the SNP candidate who had a team out. Funny watching people just say “no” to them. As we were on the same street briefly! What issue do SNP last time voters raise? Public services and broken promises…
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
I think one issue for the Tories is that it’s not like another substantial figure is there to campaign and boost morale in the old core while Sunak disintegrates (the “don’t worry he will be gone soon and you want us in opposition” strategy). Cleverly could do it, a bit, I suppose. But what does his constituency look like? Otherwise, who? Boris could have, if he’d fancied it and had been standing. Cameron can’t because he’s obviously off post election. Who?
This week has seen Badenoch have a go, and last night was Mordaunt's chance to shine.
Obvously Sunak is worse than mediocre, but it really isn't obvious that there is anyone better. Putting up Boris might remind some Reform wobblers why they liked the Conservatives, but at the cost of annoying everyone else. Dave is a class act, but he's not a candidate. Hunt and Cleverly are technically the other big beasts in the government, but... yeah.
Où est la masse de manœuvre? Aucune
On what basis is Dave “I lost an unloseable referendum that I chose to call” Cameron a “class act”? Seriously? What is it? Is it the brilliant coalition government of 2010-2015 which saw notable austerity for no gain whatsoever as incomes flatlined? Is it his superb foreign policy which saw the terrible failure of Libya? What is it?
There is precisely nil evidence for Cameron being a good political leader let alone a “class act”
He managed six years before his government blew up, which is more than his last three successors managed between them.
But fair enough. I'll substitute "relatively classy" for "class". After all, the reason for bringing him back was the lack of plausible alternatives.
I’ll meet you on that halfway point. Cameron only appears competent because of the utter twits that succeeded him, and the girning Scottish fool that came before
Blair is the last prime minister who - to my mind - combined genuine charisma with a good brain and proper skill in governance
Boris had the rizz and the brain but was completely shit at governing - chaotic and inept. Truss, May, brown and Sunak were/are even worse. Choose your villain
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
You'd feel at home in the Lib Dems. I can give you membership details.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
I've never been more confident of my bullcrap prediction they would go into the election day with no party leader at all.
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
One slight problem, we no longer have a chairman of the 1922.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
We return to the benefits of a more proportional system. There are many flavours of right wing, many flavours of left, and even a few different flavours of liberal centrist. Let people vote for, or indeed belong to, a party that represents their world view and then let compromises be made transparently through the forming of coalitions rather than opaquely through the politicking of factions.
Yes I agree with that. It’s time to dump FPTP. Its the one massive issue on which I’ve changed my mind during my days on PB
Is FPTP working for Britain? Are we well governed? No and no. It is too hard for new parties to break through bringing new ideas - from left or right or all places between
Enough. Rip it up and start again with some form of PR. That’s now my firm belief and I used to be absolutely opposed to this
Ah the new convert to a minor party suddenly declares FPTP to be cruel and unfair!
I don't recall you whining about it when Liz Truss was your latest hero
Bets to be settled within 28 days of the election.
AUDIT TRAIL
Leon: SEMI SERIOUS QUESTION. What are the odds of the Tories getting ZERO seats? In 2019 their safest seat was South Holland and the Deepings, which not only has a superb name but also seems to be the kind of place that might chuck some votes at Reform, and in an extreme case let Labour through. Yes yes yes extremely unlikely given the 2019 result. https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3744/election/397 .[e]
But how unlikely? What are the odds on the Tories returning literally NO MPs
Sandpit: I’ll give you a tenner at 100/1. (You can give the tenner to a Ukranian charity while you’re there).[m]
Leon: Make it 1000/1 and you’re on.[f]
Sandpit: Go on then. I’m on the hook for ten grand if the Tories get no seats at all.[n]
Leon: Are you serious? You will have to give me £10,000 if I win. That’s a lot of money but I will hold you to it - for the sake of the site’s reputation. Are you sure?[g]
Sandpit: Yes I’m good for the ten bags.[o]
Leon: Hah! I admire your bravery. I’m not sure I’d offer this bet. Coz it could happen and all you stand to gain is a tenner. But a bet is a bet. If - when! - I lose I am happy to pay it to you or a charity of your choosing.[h]
Sandpit: I don’t want the tenner, leave it in Ukraine with a charity of your choosing.[p]
Sandpit: Okay. It’s a very specific bet, that the Conservative & Unionist Party have precisely zero seats in the new Parliament. TBH I first thought 1000/1 before writing 100/1, and perhaps I should have met you half way and said 500/1.[q]
I hope both of them have paid you your 2% commission for all that!
WHEN I get my £10,000 I shall invite @Sandpit, @viewcode and @kinabalu to dinner (on me) to watch the handover of the cash. @kinabalu is invited so he can see how true gentlemen behave
Then we get hammered. I choose the venue. I’m thinking Bentleys or Scott’s
Yes I'll be there with egg on my face having got you all wrong. Will leave if I see any oysters though.
Hello from sunny Steichen. There is something blowing in the wind. Tory voters seems absolutely enraged. Three people who voted Tory last time have raised Normandy with me. And then the political takedown of David Duguid. To say they are not happy is an understatement.
Had a picture taken with the SNP candidate who had a team out. Funny watching people just say “no” to them. As we were on the same street briefly! What issue do SNP last time voters raise? Public services and broken promises…
Strichen? Have you been round to Alex's house to canvass?
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
One slight problem, we no longer have a chairman of the 1922.
Calling all politics nerds. I was looking through Harriet Harman's past election record and noticed that she had beaten three candidates who later became MPs elsewhere (John Redwood, Jessica Lee and Ben Spencer). Simon Hughes also defeated three future MPs (Robert Hughes, Oliver Heald and Grant Shapps). Three doesn't sound like a massively high number but I can't find any higher.
Does anyone know of an MP who was a better trainer of future MPs?
Alan Williams beat a former MP and two subsequent ones, but I can't better yours yet
Tam Dalyell. Beat four future MPs: Michael Ancram, Alex Pollock, Jim Sillars, Kenny MacAskill
George Strauss beat FIVE future MPs -Frank Bryant -Clyde Wilson -Frank Markham -David Lane -Spencer Le Marchant
Woohoo, I think that's a winner.
If it is only future MPs, then four might be the upper limit
See Winston Churchlill
William Joynson-Hicks (defeated 1906, elected 1908) Edwyn Scrymgeour (defeated 1908, elected 1922 for Scottish Prohibition, whoever they were) James Ranger (defeated 1931, elected 1945) Arthur Latham (defeated 1959, elected 1969)
He beat various others who had already been MPs like Walton Newbold and Arthur Comyns Carr.
Thinking of people who have won elections in several different places, and possibly defeated former (or maybe future) MPs I wonder about George Galloway, or the SDP Gang of Four.
Or did Dennis the Menace have a long string of future Tories coming at him to be blooded? Or Ken Clarke Labour starter-outers?
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
It's very questionable whether he is libertarian
But besides, synonymizing libertarian and Liberal is careless
Bets to be settled within 28 days of the election.
AUDIT TRAIL
Leon: SEMI SERIOUS QUESTION. What are the odds of the Tories getting ZERO seats? In 2019 their safest seat was South Holland and the Deepings, which not only has a superb name but also seems to be the kind of place that might chuck some votes at Reform, and in an extreme case let Labour through. Yes yes yes extremely unlikely given the 2019 result. https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3744/election/397 .[e]
But how unlikely? What are the odds on the Tories returning literally NO MPs
Sandpit: I’ll give you a tenner at 100/1. (You can give the tenner to a Ukranian charity while you’re there).[m]
Leon: Make it 1000/1 and you’re on.[f]
Sandpit: Go on then. I’m on the hook for ten grand if the Tories get no seats at all.[n]
Leon: Are you serious? You will have to give me £10,000 if I win. That’s a lot of money but I will hold you to it - for the sake of the site’s reputation. Are you sure?[g]
Sandpit: Yes I’m good for the ten bags.[o]
Leon: Hah! I admire your bravery. I’m not sure I’d offer this bet. Coz it could happen and all you stand to gain is a tenner. But a bet is a bet. If - when! - I lose I am happy to pay it to you or a charity of your choosing.[h]
Sandpit: I don’t want the tenner, leave it in Ukraine with a charity of your choosing.[p]
Sandpit: Okay. It’s a very specific bet, that the Conservative & Unionist Party have precisely zero seats in the new Parliament. TBH I first thought 1000/1 before writing 100/1, and perhaps I should have met you half way and said 500/1.[q]
I hope both of them have paid you your 2% commission for all that!
WHEN I get my £10,000 I shall invite @Sandpit, @viewcode and @kinabalu to dinner (on me) to watch the handover of the cash. @kinabalu is invited so he can see how true gentlemen behave
Then we get hammered. I choose the venue. I’m thinking Bentleys or Scott’s
Yes I'll be there with egg on my face having got you all wrong. Will leave if I see any oysters though.
Hello from sunny Steichen. There is something blowing in the wind. Tory voters seems absolutely enraged. Three people who voted Tory last time have raised Normandy with me. And then the political takedown of David Duguid. To say they are not happy is an understatement.
Had a picture taken with the SNP candidate who had a team out. Funny watching people just say “no” to them. As we were on the same street briefly! What issue do SNP last time voters raise? Public services and broken promises…
Strichen? Have you been round to Alex's house to canvass?
I have not. Frankly his driveway is annoyingly long.
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
Why would the King appoint Cameron if the Tories elected him? What would be the constitutional basis for that appointment. Advice of his predecessor? There’s no Commons, so why should a member of the Conservative Party be appointed instead of anyone else? Not happening. The Tory Party have no standing to require one of their number be appointed.
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
One slight problem, we no longer have a chairman of the 1922.
His helicopter might crash, of course.
That has gone through my mind. Dodgy as hell, choppers.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
It's very questionable whether he is libertarian
But besides, synonymizing libertarian and Liberal is careless
Take his zero-net immigration policy. That is anything but xenophobic because it treats emigrants and immigrants as equal.
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
She's not been giving a major government job besides Leader of the House in years. I doubt that is purely down to jealousy from the sitting PM.
Jealousy probably is why Liz Truss sidelined Mordaunt as Leader of the House (cf Boris and JRM) but it backfired when HMQ's demise made Penny the most famous sword-carrier in the land, eclipsing Truss herself for most of her seven weeks in office.
Wasn’t the sword-carrying at the Coronation, several months after La Truss had departed the stage?
You're definitely correct about the sword, although less correct about Truss departing the stage.
The idea that Truss would have been upset and jealous at Mordaunt getting to carry the sword, when she'd just come in to Number 10 and was grappling with everything that that entailed, is a peculiar fantasy of DecrepiterJohnL's, best dealt with via a sympathetic glance and a change of topic.
“grappling” suggests she was trying to get to grips with the complexities of government rather than deciding that they were a made up by the anti-growth coalition. She spent her entire time as PM shoving a very simplistic policy down the throats of people who didn’t want it without even bothering to try and build support first. The only thing she “grappled” with was the door handles.
This rather silly post says everything about you and nothing about Truss. Of the challenges she faced, only a small percentage of them would have related to implementing her programme. She had to move her family into the apartment in Number 10 (which was apparently flea infested), lose the personal freedom to go places that even Cabinet Ministers have, create and deliver speeches and attend ceremonies relating to the Queen's death and the King's accession, try to form some sort of administrative team within Number 10, try to form a cabinet. But evidently DecrepiterJohnL thinks she spent her time pining to carry a sword.
Your post displays an odious lack of curiosity and even the ability to basic logic about other peoples' lives.
OT. Interesting Any Questions today. Biggest cheer of the day for the SNP MP who wanted to cancel Brexit and rejoin. Every time the word was mentioned there was a huge cheer. (From a Tory constituency as well). Somebody or other is throwing away a potential USP that comes with great big flashing lights
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
We return to the benefits of a more proportional system. There are many flavours of right wing, many flavours of left, and even a few different flavours of liberal centrist. Let people vote for, or indeed belong to, a party that represents their world view and then let compromises be made transparently through the forming of coalitions rather than opaquely through the politicking of factions.
Yes I agree with that. It’s time to dump FPTP. Its the one massive issue on which I’ve changed my mind during my days on PB
Is FPTP working for Britain? Are we well governed? No and no. It is too hard for new parties to break through bringing new ideas - from left or right or all places between
Enough. Rip it up and start again with some form of PR. That’s now my firm belief and I used to be absolutely opposed to this
Ah the new convert to a minor party suddenly declares FPTP to be cruel and unfair!
I don't recall you whining about it when Liz Truss was your latest hero
No you’re wrong. I’ve felt this - and said it on here - since about 2018-20. Its been a slow procession of my opinion from being totally anti electoral reform to being completely pro as I am now and have been for several years
And it’s mainly because I’ve read clever people on here espousing the virtues of PR (or whatever system) and they made me think. And eventually they changed my mind. However I’m still not sure what system I want. I hate party lists. I want to preserve the constituency connection as much as possible. I’m open to ideas
So that’s a triumph for pb! All those threaders about the d’Hondt system actually had an effect even tho we mock them. Yay pb
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
Why would the King appoint Cameron if the Tories elected him? What would be the constitutional basis for that appointment. Advice of his predecessor? There’s no Commons, so why should a member of the Conservative Party be appointed instead of anyone else? Not happening. The Tory Party have no standing to require one of their number be appointed.
A PM is conventionally an MP too and there ain't any MPs right now.
It's a problem not having a written constitution. I guess we would muddle through for the next 3 weeks?
Anyway it's a bit macabre. Sunak is a husband and dad.
Mordaunt reminds me of the hype Sunak had. She's popular because she's not him but she seems to have very little actual talent or ideas. She was meh during the debate.
She's not been giving a major government job besides Leader of the House in years. I doubt that is purely down to jealousy from the sitting PM.
Jealousy probably is why Liz Truss sidelined Mordaunt as Leader of the House (cf Boris and JRM) but it backfired when HMQ's demise made Penny the most famous sword-carrier in the land, eclipsing Truss herself for most of her seven weeks in office.
Wasn’t the sword-carrying at the Coronation, several months after La Truss had departed the stage?
You're definitely correct about the sword, although less correct about Truss departing the stage.
The idea that Truss would have been upset and jealous at Mordaunt getting to carry the sword, when she'd just come in to Number 10 and was grappling with everything that that entailed, is a peculiar fantasy of DecrepiterJohnL's, best dealt with via a sympathetic glance and a change of topic.
“grappling” suggests she was trying to get to grips with the complexities of government rather than deciding that they were a made up by the anti-growth coalition. She spent her entire time as PM shoving a very simplistic policy down the throats of people who didn’t want it without even bothering to try and build support first. The only thing she “grappled” with was the door handles.
This rather silly post says everything about you and nothing about Truss. Of the challenges she faced, only a small percentage of them would have related to implementing her programme. She had to move her family into the apartment in Number 10 (which was apparently flea infested), lose the personal freedom to go places that even Cabinet Ministers have, create and deliver speeches and attend ceremonies relating to the Queen's death and the King's accession, try to form some sort of administrative team within Number 10, try to form a cabinet. But evidently DecrepiterJohnL thinks she spent her time pining to carry a sword.
Your post displays an odious lack of curiosity and even the ability to basic logic about other peoples' lives.
And yours displays your touching willingness to defend to the death the last hope of your discredited ideology in the face of the overwhelming evidence of its, and her, failure.
Angela Rayner has already pulled Starmer’s strings to get him to let Diane Abbott stand and to surrender to the demands of trade unions.
What will she make him do next?
Oh god, Rishi's D-Day disaster was better than that...
Hi @AlsoLei , how's Islington North going from your viewpoint? Seems like from Twitter that Praful is getting a decent ground game together and I haven't heard of any defections from the CLP.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
What was all that chanting Stop And Search! about during the debate then?
(Long-time lurker popping back for an election-time appearance.. greetings )
Strikes me that, quite apart from tilting the left-right balance, BoJo's purge of remainers before the 2019 election has left a deficit of pure and simple competence, relative to the current crop.
A whole generation of middle-ranking, maybe unremarkable at the time, ministers and MPs left the Commons after losing the whip.
Some of them would have shone in the past 4.5 years, tacking gently to the right a la Mordaunt and leaving Brexit behind as a do-or-die issue, to bring in enough proto-Reformers. The Hammonds, Gaukes, Grieves, Greenings etc.
Given the discussion here about the dearth of talent to succeed Sunak, it feels like that clear-out will come to be seen as a defining moment in creating the Tories' current and future survival-level struggles.
Bets to be settled within 28 days of the election.
AUDIT TRAIL
Leon: SEMI SERIOUS QUESTION. What are the odds of the Tories getting ZERO seats? In 2019 their safest seat was South Holland and the Deepings, which not only has a superb name but also seems to be the kind of place that might chuck some votes at Reform, and in an extreme case let Labour through. Yes yes yes extremely unlikely given the 2019 result. https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3744/election/397 .[e]
But how unlikely? What are the odds on the Tories returning literally NO MPs
Sandpit: I’ll give you a tenner at 100/1. (You can give the tenner to a Ukranian charity while you’re there).[m]
Leon: Make it 1000/1 and you’re on.[f]
Sandpit: Go on then. I’m on the hook for ten grand if the Tories get no seats at all.[n]
Leon: Are you serious? You will have to give me £10,000 if I win. That’s a lot of money but I will hold you to it - for the sake of the site’s reputation. Are you sure?[g]
Sandpit: Yes I’m good for the ten bags.[o]
Leon: Hah! I admire your bravery. I’m not sure I’d offer this bet. Coz it could happen and all you stand to gain is a tenner. But a bet is a bet. If - when! - I lose I am happy to pay it to you or a charity of your choosing.[h]
Sandpit: I don’t want the tenner, leave it in Ukraine with a charity of your choosing.[p]
Sandpit: Okay. It’s a very specific bet, that the Conservative & Unionist Party have precisely zero seats in the new Parliament. TBH I first thought 1000/1 before writing 100/1, and perhaps I should have met you half way and said 500/1.[q]
I hope both of them have paid you your 2% commission for all that!
WHEN I get my £10,000 I shall invite @Sandpit, @viewcode and @kinabalu to dinner (on me) to watch the handover of the cash. @kinabalu is invited so he can see how true gentlemen behave
Then we get hammered. I choose the venue. I’m thinking Bentleys or Scott’s
Yes I'll be there with egg on my face having got you all wrong. Will leave if I see any oysters though.
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
Why would the King appoint Cameron if the Tories elected him? What would be the constitutional basis for that appointment. Advice of his predecessor? There’s no Commons, so why should a member of the Conservative Party be appointed instead of anyone else? Not happening. The Tory Party have no standing to require one of their number be appointed.
A PM is conventionally an MP too and there ain't any MPs right now.
It's a problem not having a written constitution. I guess we would muddle through for the next 3 weeks?
Anyway it's a bit macabre. Sunak is a husband and dad.
Ministers are still ministers, even though MPs are no longer MPs.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
But Shakespeare's tragedies all require a flawed HERO.
I think our PMs fall rather short in that department
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
What was all that chanting Stop And Search! about during the debate then?
Surely Blair's legacy isn't that toxic that we have to reject every one of his policies.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
Net migration of zero is not an opposition to "mass" immigration.
He's a racist xenophobe, not just anti-migration.
And he's illiberal. He opposed equal marriage, how is that libertarian? His policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?
He's not remotely liberal. And more importantly he's a nasty, racist, xenophobic shit.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
Some of Farage's "liberal" policies:
“Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.
Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.
All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.
Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.
Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.
The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.
Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
Net migration of zero is not an opposition to "mass" immigration.
He's a racist xenophobe, not just anti-migration.
And he's illiberal. He opposed equal marriage, how is that libertarian? His policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?
He's not remotely liberal. And more importantly he's a nasty, racist, xenophobic shit.
OT. Interesting Any Questions today. Biggest cheer of the day for the SNP MP who wanted to cancel Brexit and rejoin. Every time the word was mentioned there was a huge cheer. (From a Tory constituency as well). Somebody or other is throwing away a potential USP that comes with great big flashing lights
FFS. You can’t “cancel” Brexit anymore than I can cancel my 50th birthday. I’d like to do both but sadly both have happened. Britain has Exited the EU. That’s Brexit. People (myself included) might want to rejoin but people (myself included) don’t want to rip the country apart again through another Referendum. If you lived in this country you’d realise how strong this feeling is. Most 2016 Remainers don’t want to gone through the pain of reopening the wounds, however much we regret the 2016 outcome. Another referendum would just recreate the recent chaos.
Just take French citizenship Roger. It’s because of people like you we lost. The best we can hope for for a generation is closer relations and possibly Single Market. We won’t rejoin until the pain of the last Referendum is long gone and, likely, both you and I are too.
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
Why would the King appoint Cameron if the Tories elected him? What would be the constitutional basis for that appointment. Advice of his predecessor? There’s no Commons, so why should a member of the Conservative Party be appointed instead of anyone else? Not happening. The Tory Party have no standing to require one of their number be appointed.
A PM is conventionally an MP too and there ain't any MPs right now.
It's a problem not having a written constitution. I guess we would muddle through for the next 3 weeks?
Anyway it's a bit macabre. Sunak is a husband and dad.
Ministers are still ministers, even though MPs are no longer MPs.
Yes I know that. Doh. Ministers remain in post purely to keep Gov't running.
But for new appointment to be made it's supposed to be from an MP. And there aren't any.
(Long-time lurker popping back for an election-time appearance.. greetings )
Strikes me that, quite apart from tilting the left-right balance, BoJo's purge of remainers before the 2019 election has left a deficit of pure and simple competence, relative to the current crop.
A whole generation of middle-ranking, maybe unremarkable at the time, ministers and MPs left the Commons after losing the whip.
Some of them would have shone in the past 4.5 years, tacking gently to the right a la Mordaunt and leaving Brexit behind as a do-or-die issue, to bring in enough proto-Reformers. The Hammonds, Gaukes, Grieves, Greenings etc.
Given the discussion here about the dearth of talent to succeed Sunak, it feels like that clear-out will come to be seen as a defining moment in creating the Tories' current and future survival-level struggles.
The Brexit takeover of the Tory Party and the calamitous last 5 years is not a coincidence. I am struggling to think of a single prominent Brexiteer who has proved to be competent in Government. The best of the current bunch is Hunt and he was a remainer.
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
Why would the King appoint Cameron if the Tories elected him? What would be the constitutional basis for that appointment. Advice of his predecessor? There’s no Commons, so why should a member of the Conservative Party be appointed instead of anyone else? Not happening. The Tory Party have no standing to require one of their number be appointed.
A PM is conventionally an MP too and there ain't any MPs right now.
It's a problem not having a written constitution. I guess we would muddle through for the next 3 weeks?
Anyway it's a bit macabre. Sunak is a husband and dad.
Ministers are still ministers, even though MPs are no longer MPs.
Yeah, I reckon Cabinet acclamation of a temporary leader (and possibly PM) if Sunak fell under a bus*. They're the only ones with the fig-leaf of constitutional clearance to do so. But at this stage, I don't see any upsides in that happening. The fall-out would be even worse than anything Sunak could screw up in the next three weeks, IMO.
(*possibly his own battle bus, given the current competence of the campaign )
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
Net migration of zero is not an opposition to "mass" immigration.
He's a racist xenophobe, not just anti-migration.
And he's illiberal. He opposed equal marriage, how is that libertarian? His policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?
He's not remotely liberal. And more importantly he's a nasty, racist, xenophobic shit.
Perfectly put
Nigel Farage is an absolute hero. A decent funny pint drinking English gent. Liberal and authentic, funny and charismatic. And smarter than all of the other leaders put together. There is a reason he is the most popular politician in the country
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
He believes in free speech. Defending what other people say even if you disagree with it. A lot of people today don't really believe in that.
OT. Interesting Any Questions today. Biggest cheer of the day for the SNP MP who wanted to cancel Brexit and rejoin. Every time the word was mentioned there was a huge cheer. (From a Tory constituency as well). Somebody or other is throwing away a potential USP that comes with great big flashing lights
FFS. You can’t “cancel” Brexit anymore than I can cancel my 50th birthday. I’d like to do both but sadly both have happened. Britain has Exited the EU. That’s Brexit. People (myself included) might want to rejoin but people (myself included) don’t want to rip the country apart again through another Referendum. If you lived in this country you’d realise how strong this feeling is. Most 2016 Remainers don’t want to gone through the pain of reopening the wounds, however much we regret the 2016 outcome. Another referendum would just recreate the recent chaos.
Just take French citizenship Roger. It’s because of people like you we lost. The best we can hope for for a generation is closer relations and possibly Single Market. We won’t rejoin until the pain of the last Referendum is long gone and, likely, both you and I are too.
Quite apart from the terms on which we'd re-enter. No rebate, Schengen, Euro, full slate of workers' rights etc all firmly on the table. Suspect we'd soon realise what a decent compromise we'd had in the status quo ante.
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
Net migration of zero is not an opposition to "mass" immigration.
He's a racist xenophobe, not just anti-migration.
And he's illiberal. He opposed equal marriage, how is that libertarian? His policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?
He's not remotely liberal. And more importantly he's a nasty, racist, xenophobic shit.
Perfectly put
Nigel Farage is an absolute hero. A decent funny pint drinking English gent. Liberal and authentic, funny and charismatic. And smarter than all of the other leaders put together. There is a reason he is the most popular politician in the country
1. He isn't a hero 2. He isn't very funny 3. He's certainly not a gent 4. He isn't Liberal 5. He isn't authentic 6. He isn't funny 7. He isn't smart let alone smarter than the other leaders put together. I mean, YOU may hate Sunak and Starmer but they're 100x smarter than Farage and, by the sounds of it, you. 8. He isn't the most popular poitician in the country
9. You came out with all this sort of crap over Liz Truss
Urgent Sentencing Review with Automatic Life Imprisonment for Violent Repeat Offenders. Those committing second violent or serious offences will receive mandatory life sentences.
Increase the Criminal Justice Budget. The budget is almost the same as it was 10 years ago. Increase it from £10 billion to £12 billion to ensure more high calibre staff to cut delays.
Change the Definition of Hate Crime. The CPS and police definition of a hate crime has led to systemic bias. Members of the British public must not be investigated because ‘any’ person ‘perceives’ that a hate crime has been committed. Proper evidence must be required. Enforce existing laws to stop violent, hate demonstrations such as the Free-Palestine marches.
Commence building of 10,000 New Detention Places. Start expansion in capacity of state built and managed prisons so that life means life for those who endanger the public. Commission disused military bases if needed.
Tackle Organised Crime. Foreign gang crime accounts for most organised crime in the UK at a cost of £37 billion per year. This includes drugs, people trafficking and money laundering through barber shops, car washes and nail bars. Increase budget for both the National Crime Agency and The National Drugs Intelligence Unit.
Thereafter Justice tick Reform the Child Maintenance Service. The CMS is failing children and parents. It should be a Mediation Service and means-tested child support for parents who cannot arrange finances. Launch a special division of the family court for maintenance and defaults. Share parental care 50/50 where appropriate. Rights of access for Grandparents.
Stop Child Grooming Gangs. Systematic child sexual abuse continues unchecked. Child Protection Services needs a dedicated National Agency working with local charities, councils and health services. Upgraded intelligence can identify high-risk children and filter malicious claims.
Tackle Youth Crime. Reopen High Intensity Training Camps for young offenders to teach basic education, teamwork and values. Military veterans can provide role models. This model worked at Thorn Cross in the 1990s. It is needed more than ever.
Urgent Sentencing Review with Automatic Life Imprisonment for Violent Repeat Offenders. Those committing second violent or serious offences will receive mandatory life sentences.
Increase the Criminal Justice Budget. The budget is almost the same as it was 10 years ago. Increase it from £10 billion to £12 billion to ensure more high calibre staff to cut delays.
Change the Definition of Hate Crime. The CPS and police definition of a hate crime has led to systemic bias. Members of the British public must not be investigated because ‘any’ person ‘perceives’ that a hate crime has been committed. Proper evidence must be required. Enforce existing laws to stop violent, hate demonstrations such as the Free-Palestine marches.
Commence building of 10,000 New Detention Places. Start expansion in capacity of state built and managed prisons so that life means life for those who endanger the public. Commission disused military bases if needed.
Tackle Organised Crime. Foreign gang crime accounts for most organised crime in the UK at a cost of £37 billion per year. This includes drugs, people trafficking and money laundering through barber shops, car washes and nail bars. Increase budget for both the National Crime Agency and The National Drugs Intelligence Unit.
Thereafter Justice tick Reform the Child Maintenance Service. The CMS is failing children and parents. It should be a Mediation Service and means-tested child support for parents who cannot arrange finances. Launch a special division of the family court for maintenance and defaults. Share parental care 50/50 where appropriate. Rights of access for Grandparents.
Stop Child Grooming Gangs. Systematic child sexual abuse continues unchecked. Child Protection Services needs a dedicated National Agency working with local charities, councils and health services. Upgraded intelligence can identify high-risk children and filter malicious claims.
Tackle Youth Crime. Reopen High Intensity Training Camps for young offenders to teach basic education, teamwork and values. Military veterans can provide role models. This model worked at Thorn Cross in the 1990s. It is needed more than ever.
So their justice policy criminalises support for a Palestinian state. It also mandates life imprisonment for those who “endanger the public” - like SC judges according the Mail. How is this “liberal”?
We are at the end of an era. When historians come to write proper accounts of the 2010-2024 period, who amount the governing party(s) will be remembered?
Here’s my list, to qualify you need to have had a significant role and or had an important impact on the period.
In rough chronological order:
David Cameron George Osborne Michael Gove William Hague Nick Clegg Theresa May Boris Johnson Dominic Cummings David Davis Philip Hammond Rishi Sunak Liz Truss Matt Hancock Jeremy Hunt
Honourable mentions: Vince Cable, Andrew Lansley, Danny Alexander, Steve Baker, Chris Grayling, Ruth Davison, Amber Rudd, Priti Patel, Ben Wallace, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng.
I've just bet a small amount on David Cameron as next PM at 66/1. I don't think an emergency ejection can be ruled out if it looks like a total wipeout is otherwise on the cards.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
Why would the King appoint Cameron if the Tories elected him? What would be the constitutional basis for that appointment. Advice of his predecessor? There’s no Commons, so why should a member of the Conservative Party be appointed instead of anyone else? Not happening. The Tory Party have no standing to require one of their number be appointed.
It's a good question but if the PM resigns then the King has to appoint another. There cannot be no PM.
Since all other of the King's ministers remain in place and they are Conservative ministers until the election changes things it follows the PM would also need to be a Conservative.
Urgent Sentencing Review with Automatic Life Imprisonment for Violent Repeat Offenders. Those committing second violent or serious offences will receive mandatory life sentences.
Increase the Criminal Justice Budget. The budget is almost the same as it was 10 years ago. Increase it from £10 billion to £12 billion to ensure more high calibre staff to cut delays.
Change the Definition of Hate Crime. The CPS and police definition of a hate crime has led to systemic bias. Members of the British public must not be investigated because ‘any’ person ‘perceives’ that a hate crime has been committed. Proper evidence must be required. Enforce existing laws to stop violent, hate demonstrations such as the Free-Palestine marches.
Commence building of 10,000 New Detention Places. Start expansion in capacity of state built and managed prisons so that life means life for those who endanger the public. Commission disused military bases if needed.
Tackle Organised Crime. Foreign gang crime accounts for most organised crime in the UK at a cost of £37 billion per year. This includes drugs, people trafficking and money laundering through barber shops, car washes and nail bars. Increase budget for both the National Crime Agency and The National Drugs Intelligence Unit.
Thereafter Justice tick Reform the Child Maintenance Service. The CMS is failing children and parents. It should be a Mediation Service and means-tested child support for parents who cannot arrange finances. Launch a special division of the family court for maintenance and defaults. Share parental care 50/50 where appropriate. Rights of access for Grandparents.
Stop Child Grooming Gangs. Systematic child sexual abuse continues unchecked. Child Protection Services needs a dedicated National Agency working with local charities, councils and health services. Upgraded intelligence can identify high-risk children and filter malicious claims.
Tackle Youth Crime. Reopen High Intensity Training Camps for young offenders to teach basic education, teamwork and values. Military veterans can provide role models. This model worked at Thorn Cross in the 1990s. It is needed more than ever.
Looks like they could use a football stadium or two
Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.
About 2.6 years ago to be precise. That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
I do think we will come to believe that this election was lost in 2022.
Johnson should have gone after Hartlepool and he'd have won a landslide then. That was the peak and it's been downhill ever since.
Of course, the Tories were never truly popular but SKS for a while was doing terribly. So the Tories had room there to defeat him.
Support for Labour is a mile wide but an inch deep.
They are primarily a rejection mechanism for the present administration- their fundamentals are pretty poor.
I think you are wrong. I think we're about to enter another 3 term period of Labour rule, a period which the Tories may not survive in their current form (although something non-Labour will emerge as an alternative in time).
I could of course be wrong and you will be welcome to say 'I told you so' loudly and often if that proves the case.
I think I'm right. But I won't say 'I told you you so' because that'll be annoying for you to hear and I don't particularly care about being seen to be right.
But, anyone who automatically assumes 2-3 terms or 10-15 years minimum is simply projecting present day support wildly into the future and assuming that nothing will change and everything will stay the same.
That's not how it works, nor what the fundamentals show, so it essentially demonstrates a failure of imagination.
FWIW I think either of you could be right. There's no automaticity about Labour continuing for three terms but I think Starmer is very keen to make it so. So far he's hardly put a foot wrong. Also people fed up with Labour need a viable alternative to switch their votes. The Conservatives need to deal with Reform and then make themselves attractive to those voting Labour in this election.
I don't think labour will get near 3 terms frankly they will be lucky to get 2 terms for the simple reason they are going to be centrist and it is not going to fix any of our problems because centrism is what landed us here. I suspect the next governement after starmers will be either harder right or harder left because centrism will be seen to be a dead end
We are at the end of an era. When historians come to write proper accounts of the 2010-2024 period, who amount the governing party(s) will be remembered?
Here’s my list, to qualify you need to have had a significant role and or had an important impact on the period.
In rough chronological order:
David Cameron George Osborne Michael Gove William Hague Nick Clegg Theresa May Boris Johnson Dominic Cummings David Davis Philip Hammond Rishi Sunak Liz Truss Matt Hancock Jeremy Hunt
Honourable mentions: Vince Cable, Andrew Lansley, Danny Alexander, Steve Baker, Chris Grayling, Ruth Davison, Amber Rudd, Priti Patel, Ben Wallace, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng.
Milliband and Corbyn should be on the list. Both made significant contributions.
We are at the end of an era. When historians come to write proper accounts of the 2010-2024 period, who amount the governing party(s) will be remembered?
Here’s my list, to qualify you need to have had a significant role and or had an important impact on the period.
In rough chronological order:
David Cameron George Osborne Michael Gove William Hague Nick Clegg Theresa May Boris Johnson Dominic Cummings David Davis Philip Hammond Rishi Sunak Liz Truss Matt Hancock Jeremy Hunt
Honourable mentions: Vince Cable, Andrew Lansley, Danny Alexander, Steve Baker, Chris Grayling, Ruth Davison, Amber Rudd, Priti Patel, Ben Wallace, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng.
Daniel Hannan. The theoreticians always get overlooked but they put forward the ideas on which people hang their actions.
We are at the end of an era. When historians come to write proper accounts of the 2010-2024 period, who amount the governing party(s) will be remembered?
Here’s my list, to qualify you need to have had a significant role and or had an important impact on the period.
In rough chronological order:
David Cameron George Osborne Michael Gove William Hague Nick Clegg Theresa May Boris Johnson Dominic Cummings David Davis Philip Hammond Rishi Sunak Liz Truss Matt Hancock Jeremy Hunt
Honourable mentions: Vince Cable, Andrew Lansley, Danny Alexander, Steve Baker, Chris Grayling, Ruth Davison, Amber Rudd, Priti Patel, Ben Wallace, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng.
Um. Nigel Farage? Leader of the Ukip and Brexit parties?
The scenario outlined in that Bloomberg article seems quite plausible. If the Tories are left with 100-150 seats and Farage gets elected but Reform fail to break through in terms of seats, there will be a lot of pressure to let him join the party and run for the leadership.
It might lead to a load of Never-Farage Tories leaving the party, but would mean we'd be left with a consolidated right-wing movement.
No we would not as the very significant chunk of right wingers, like myself, @Big_G_NorthWales and many, many, many more on here alone who despise Farage would be left outside the party of the right.
You're more of a liberal internationalist, so maybe you would be more at home in a party of like-minded people.
I'm more of a liberal nationalist than a liberal internationalist.
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Liberal nationalism is pretty much Farage's philosophical position, so why do you despise him?
How the hell is Farage liberal !?
What makes you think otherwise? He's a fiscal conservative who opposes the nanny state and has libertarian instincts.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
Net migration of zero is not an opposition to "mass" immigration.
He's a racist xenophobe, not just anti-migration.
And he's illiberal. He opposed equal marriage, how is that libertarian? His policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?
He's not remotely liberal. And more importantly he's a nasty, racist, xenophobic shit.
Perfectly put
Nigel Farage is an absolute hero. A decent funny pint drinking English gent. Liberal and authentic, funny and charismatic. And smarter than all of the other leaders put together. There is a reason he is the most popular politician in the country
Comments
There is precisely nil evidence for Cameron being a good political leader let alone a “class act”
It's unlikely, but not impossible.
If he wasn't up for it, it would fall to the board to find some other temporary fix until the new 1922 Ctte could run a proper leadership contest.
So, they are going to severely damage a party which is not pure enough, in their view, so that a party they vehemently oppose becomes the government and sets government policy in a way they are really not going to like for the next decade. There are words for this type of behaviour but, given its a family site I will restrict myself to irrational and self-harming.
The logic is that out of the ashes of the Tories something better (and very probably even less electable) will rise. Well, good luck with that.
Pretty much the same analysis can be applied to Alba but that's all to the good, of course.
Then we get hammered. I choose the venue. I’m thinking Bentleys or Scott’s
Edit: indeed one of only three people who have led their party to a majority in 32 years.
It was booked before he decided to call an election.
It would be fun if these 'actual' left and right parties spelt out in remorseless detail what they want and how they are going to get there.
See Winston Churchlill
William Joynson-Hicks (defeated 1906, elected 1908)
Edwyn Scrymgeour (defeated 1908, elected 1922 for Scottish Prohibition, whoever they were)
James Ranger (defeated 1931, elected 1945)
Arthur Latham (defeated 1959, elected 1969)
He beat various others who had already been MPs like Walton Newbold and Arthur Comyns Carr.
Had a picture taken with the SNP candidate who had a team out. Funny watching people just say “no” to them. As we were on the same street briefly! What issue do SNP last time voters raise? Public services and broken promises…
How do they settle whilst preserving the anonymity (from each other) of the winner and loser?
And having disparate parties of "like minded people" is not united big tent parties like you claimed.
Is FPTP working for Britain? Are we well governed? No and no. It is too hard for new parties to break through bringing new ideas - from left or right or all places between
Enough. Rip it up and start again with some form of PR. That’s now my firm belief and I used to be absolutely opposed to this
But fair enough. I'll substitute "relatively classy" for "class". After all, the reason for bringing him back was the lack of plausible alternatives.
He was asked about amending the Equality Act, and replied "We will not want to amend the Act, it’s not needed... This, to be honest, is a distraction from the election campaign."
Susan Dalgety claims that he said women's rights are a distraction, but she's lying.
Unless you want to be an MP, of course.
PB has gone mad today, Reform will not be beating the Tories.
The Tories will get between 50 and 200 seats. Reform will get a few and that's it.
I despise him as he's a racist anti-immigration xenophobe.
There is no "parliamentary party" at the moment to VoNC through the 1922 committee, but Sunak might simply be told to go immediately and agree to do so.
A single candidate could then be elected inside a week, just as Sunak replaced Truss.
Blair is the last prime minister who - to my mind - combined genuine charisma with a good brain and proper skill in governance
Boris had the rizz and the brain but was completely shit at governing - chaotic and inept. Truss, May, brown and Sunak were/are even worse. Choose your villain
@Leon is going to be in Kiev this evening, and for a couple of days.
He’s agreed that he will put £10 (or 500 of the local currency) into a charity pot, and wants me to nominate exactly where this should happen.
Any ideas as to where we should make him go?
Let’s not go too far from the Kiev metro system, as he doesn’t have a car.
Is it purely the opposition to mass immigration that you object to?
Either make it really deserving or ridiculous and amusing. Please. Spassiba
I don't recall you whining about it when Liz Truss was your latest hero
https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1799447503471014309/photo/1
Angela Rayner has already pulled Starmer’s strings to get him to let Diane Abbott stand and to surrender to the demands of trade unions.
What will she make him do next?
Or did Dennis the Menace have a long string of future Tories coming at him to be blooded? Or Ken Clarke Labour starter-outers?
But besides, synonymizing libertarian and Liberal is careless
Your post displays an odious lack of curiosity and even the ability to basic logic about other peoples' lives.
And it’s mainly because I’ve read clever people on here espousing the virtues of PR (or whatever system) and they made me think. And eventually they changed my mind. However I’m still not sure what system I want. I hate party lists. I want to preserve the constituency connection as much as possible. I’m open to ideas
So that’s a triumph for pb! All those threaders about the d’Hondt system actually had an effect even tho we mock them. Yay pb
Announcement on raising IHT to £5 million
It's a problem not having a written constitution. I guess we would muddle through for the next 3 weeks?
Anyway it's a bit macabre. Sunak is a husband and dad.
NEW THREAD
Strikes me that, quite apart from tilting the left-right balance, BoJo's purge of remainers before the 2019 election has left a deficit of pure and simple competence, relative to the current crop.
A whole generation of middle-ranking, maybe unremarkable at the time, ministers and MPs left the Commons after losing the whip.
Some of them would have shone in the past 4.5 years, tacking gently to the right a la Mordaunt and leaving Brexit behind as a do-or-die issue, to bring in enough proto-Reformers. The Hammonds, Gaukes, Grieves, Greenings etc.
Given the discussion here about the dearth of talent to succeed Sunak, it feels like that clear-out will come to be seen as a defining moment in creating the Tories' current and future survival-level struggles.
He's a racist xenophobe, not just anti-migration.
And he's illiberal. He opposed equal marriage, how is that libertarian? His policies in this election include illiberally banning schools from teaching "gender ideology" or "critical race theory" - how is that liberal, to ban schools and universities from teaching things?
He's not remotely liberal. And more importantly he's a nasty, racist, xenophobic shit.
“Zero tolerance” policing, which the party said has been a success in New York, would mean offenders received jail sentences for all violent crimes and the possession of a knife. A new offence of substantial possession of drugs would lead to heavy fines, while the use of stop-and-search would be vastly expanded, with Reform hailing it as a “proven deterrent to knife crime”.
Police leadership teams would be reviewed and where necessary replaced, with a “strong preference” for military veterans.
All diversity, equality and inclusion roles and regulations would be abolished in an attempt to stop what Mr Tice referred to in his spring conference speech as “two-tier policing”.
Police and Crime Commissioners would either be scrapped or reformed – “either they get the power to make a real change or they should go” – and degree-standard entry would be replaced with entrance exams, while officers would have to complete two years of probation.
Violent offenders would receive automatic life imprisonment as part of an urgent review.
The definition of hate crime would be changed in order to require “proper evidence”, pro-Palestinian marches banned using existing powers, 10,000 new detention places created and the budget of the National Crime Agency increased to tackle foreign gang crime.
Young offenders, meanwhile, would face high intensity training camps that would reopen to offer “basic education, training and values… [This model] is needed more than ever.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/reform-uk-manifesto-richard-tice-key-policies-glance/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447519/
'Angels of Victory memorial, which is being created in the forest near Moshchun, where some of the fiercest battles to defend Kyiv from Russian invaders took place in March 2022.'
Just take French citizenship Roger. It’s because of people like you we lost. The best we can hope for for a generation is closer relations and possibly Single Market. We won’t rejoin until the pain of the last Referendum is long gone and, likely, both you and I are too.
But for new appointment to be made it's supposed to be from an MP. And there aren't any.
(*possibly his own battle bus, given the current competence of the campaign
2. He isn't very funny
3. He's certainly not a gent
4. He isn't Liberal
5. He isn't authentic
6. He isn't funny
7. He isn't smart let alone smarter than the other leaders put together. I mean, YOU may hate Sunak and Starmer but they're 100x smarter than Farage and, by the sounds of it, you.
8. He isn't the most popular poitician in the country
9. You came out with all this sort of crap over Liz Truss
https://www.reformparty.uk/justice-policy
Critical reforms needed in the first 100 days:
Urgent Sentencing Review with Automatic Life Imprisonment for Violent Repeat Offenders.
Those committing second violent or serious offences will receive mandatory life sentences.
Increase the Criminal Justice Budget.
The budget is almost the same as it was 10 years ago. Increase it from £10 billion to £12 billion to ensure more high calibre staff to cut delays.
Change the Definition of Hate Crime.
The CPS and police definition of a hate crime has led to systemic bias. Members of the British public must not be investigated because ‘any’ person ‘perceives’ that a hate crime has been committed. Proper evidence must be required. Enforce existing laws to stop violent, hate demonstrations such as the Free-Palestine marches.
Commence building of 10,000 New Detention Places.
Start expansion in capacity of state built and managed prisons so that life means life for those who endanger the public. Commission disused military bases if needed.
Tackle Organised Crime.
Foreign gang crime accounts for most organised crime in the UK at a cost of £37 billion per year. This includes drugs, people trafficking and money laundering through barber shops, car washes and nail bars. Increase budget for both the National Crime Agency and The National Drugs Intelligence Unit.
Thereafter
Justice tick
Reform the Child Maintenance Service.
The CMS is failing children and parents. It should be a Mediation Service and means-tested child support for parents who cannot arrange finances. Launch a special division of the family court for maintenance and defaults. Share parental care 50/50 where appropriate. Rights of access for Grandparents.
Stop Child Grooming Gangs.
Systematic child sexual abuse continues unchecked. Child Protection Services needs a dedicated National Agency working with local charities, councils and health services. Upgraded intelligence can identify high-risk children and filter malicious claims.
Tackle Youth Crime.
Reopen High Intensity Training Camps for young offenders to teach basic education, teamwork and values. Military veterans can provide role models. This model worked at Thorn Cross in the 1990s. It is needed more than ever.
When historians come to write proper accounts of the 2010-2024 period, who amount the governing party(s) will be remembered?
Here’s my list, to qualify you need to have had a significant role and or had an important impact on the period.
In rough chronological order:
David Cameron
George Osborne
Michael Gove
William Hague
Nick Clegg
Theresa May
Boris Johnson
Dominic Cummings
David Davis
Philip Hammond
Rishi Sunak
Liz Truss
Matt Hancock
Jeremy Hunt
Honourable mentions: Vince Cable, Andrew Lansley, Danny Alexander, Steve Baker, Chris Grayling, Ruth Davison, Amber Rudd, Priti Patel, Ben Wallace, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Suella Braverman, Kwasi Kwarteng.
Since all other of the King's ministers remain in place and they are Conservative ministers until the election changes things it follows the PM would also need to be a Conservative.
Does the 4 way weirdness Lab/Lib/REF/Con poll mean the exit poll might be much less accurate than normal?
If so, could present post-exit poll trading opportunities on election night b
Leon are you feeling alright?