That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
He’s a man of his word. Robert knows his name and has an email address for him.
Ok - can you hand Sandpit back his account now please?
There are moments in each election that crystallise the entire campaign. In 2015, it was Ed Miliband standing in front of what appeared to be an enormous gravestone with his own pledges engraved on it. In 2017, Theresa May insisting that “nothing has changed” after she announced and then tried to change a hugely unpopular policy on social care. Gordon Brown’s “bigoted woman” was the 2010 moment, closely followed by the post-election discovery of a note hastily written by Liam Byrne jokingly warning his successor – who he assumed would be an old political friend – that there was “no money!”
Just two weeks into this election campaign, 2024 gained its moment. Rishi Sunak apologised for leaving the international D-Day commemorations in France early. Initially, the Prime Minister’s absence in line-ups with Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron raised a few eyebrows. It was when it emerged that he had left early in order to do a pre-recorded interview with ITV – which won’t even air until next week – that all hell broke loose.
Tory MPs were in meltdown. CCHQ didn’t know what to say to anyone who asked for help with lines to take. “We have targeted our entire campaign at pensioners,” complained one backbencher who had, until this week, thought he might hold on to his seat. “We have scared them that Labour will steal their pensions and announced that bloody stupid national service policy. Then we piss off the group that has the strongest emotional connection to D-Day.”
The 2010 one is bollocks. The Tories and their outriders tried to make a lot of the “bigoted woman” thing but it didn’t stick. The striking bit of that election was the first ever TV debates and the “Cleggasm” which, together with a decent fight back from Mandelson, lost Cameron his majority and nearly kept Labour in power (though I suspect Clegg always secretly would have preferred a deal with the Tories, not that any of us though Hung Parliaments very likely back then).
I don't agree. Bigoted womangate was the moment of that campaign.
Hmmm. Did it shift votes or stick in the narrative? When Sunak loses badly, the D-Day thing will be raked over, but I’m not sure that was.
No Sir Keir! Danger! Third rail, do not approach. Like council tax, reform with even the best intentions will still get you hated.
It sounds like an excellent policy to me. We should try this in all sorts of areas. Health, defence, the economy. Only heartless Tories could oppose "a system that works better".
Can a PB expert answer a puzzle. The government itself says that 25% of all schoolchildren qualify for free school meals - over 2 million.
How is this possible in a prosperous country with a minimum wage and high levels of employment? I'm asking a maths/economics question, not a party political one. I live in an area in the bottom third economically, and this just does not seem credible.
I am a former expert in this area. FSM is a piggy back benefit - if you qualify for a particular benefit, you get FSMs.
There are so many people on some form of welfare, loads of kids qualify.
This is yet another hidden perverse incentive that has to be modelled when you look at the relationship between welfare and employment. Lots of Scottish benefits piggy back off UK Gov benefits, so there are even more disincentives to work than elsewhere in the UK for example.
These interactions can be flat - it's always worth not working - or threshold based, where a certain number of hours would tip you over an edge which meant you start to lose money. I vaguely recall 16 hours per week being one for some reason.
Aren't 100% of reception, year 1 and year 2 also eligible for free school meals now? That would mean the percentage of over sevens eligible would be a fair bit less than 25%.
Lib Dems to win Epsom and Ewell? I was on that too with Bet365. I have just noticed I can cash out my small bet for a small profit, so I am taking that.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Leon will be unbearable. Will ruin one of the most memorable events in UK political history.
'One of'?!
We had The Motorhome only a year ago.
Sorry but Conservatives on zero seats would trounce that. Not happening though obvs.
A more challenging bet would be who will be the Official Opposition after the election. 85% Con, 10% LD, 5% Reform right now?
BetFair at the moment has 76% Con, 17% LD, 7% Reform
Ah, I never realised there was an actual market for that. My guess was not too far off then.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Leon will be unbearable. Will ruin one of the most memorable events in UK political history.
'One of'?!
We had The Motorhome only a year ago.
Sorry but Conservatives on zero seats would trounce that. Not happening though obvs.
A more challenging bet would be who will be the Official Opposition after the election. 85% Con, 10% LD, 5% Reform right now?
BetFair at the moment has 76% Con, 17% LD, 7% Reform
Labour manifesto will commit to introducing an age limit on serving peers.
House of Lords will be scaled back by forcing peers to retire at age 80, or at the end of the parliament in which they reach that age.
It's part of a two-phased approach to Lords reform. There will be some immediate measures, such as banning new hereditary peers. Others will be longer term and not guaranteed within 5 years.
I'm claiming an accurate forecast some time ago, albeit a no brainer - Mr Starmer gets to do something inexpensive and popular with nearly everyone, and the nerds, and to nobble the Tories at the same time.
Peers would be forced to stand down at 80 and hereditary roles would be scrapped under Keir Starmer
I'll be sad to see the end of the comic by-elections, with their hilariously compressed manifestos.
The perennial Tory candidate Earl Dudley, who uses every by-election as an opportunity to advertise his pornographic Hi-NRG music video youtube channel, should win some sort of special award for showing people exactly how fucking stupid the peerage system really is.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
He's a techy type so he must be able to figure out a way to publish his live heart rate on the Internet on night.
LAB GAIN Kingwinsford and South Staffordshire... 198bpm
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
Tory party pick a new leader, that lucky fucker is PM for a few weeks and Sandpit is out ten K.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
There are moments in each election that crystallise the entire campaign. In 2015, it was Ed Miliband standing in front of what appeared to be an enormous gravestone with his own pledges engraved on it. In 2017, Theresa May insisting that “nothing has changed” after she announced and then tried to change a hugely unpopular policy on social care. Gordon Brown’s “bigoted woman” was the 2010 moment, closely followed by the post-election discovery of a note hastily written by Liam Byrne jokingly warning his successor – who he assumed would be an old political friend – that there was “no money!”
Just two weeks into this election campaign, 2024 gained its moment. Rishi Sunak apologised for leaving the international D-Day commemorations in France early. Initially, the Prime Minister’s absence in line-ups with Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron raised a few eyebrows. It was when it emerged that he had left early in order to do a pre-recorded interview with ITV – which won’t even air until next week – that all hell broke loose.
Tory MPs were in meltdown. CCHQ didn’t know what to say to anyone who asked for help with lines to take. “We have targeted our entire campaign at pensioners,” complained one backbencher who had, until this week, thought he might hold on to his seat. “We have scared them that Labour will steal their pensions and announced that bloody stupid national service policy. Then we piss off the group that has the strongest emotional connection to D-Day.”
The 2010 one is bollocks. The Tories and their outriders tried to make a lot of the “bigoted woman” thing but it didn’t stick. The striking bit of that election was the first ever TV debates and the “Cleggasm” which, together with a decent fight back from Mandelson, lost Cameron his majority and nearly kept Labour in power (though I suspect Clegg always secretly would have preferred a deal with the Tories, not that any of us though Hung Parliaments very likely back then).
I don't agree. Bigoted womangate was the moment of that campaign.
Hmmm. Did it shift votes or stick in the narrative? When Sunak loses badly, the D-Day thing will be raked over, but I’m not sure that was.
The latter. It was the story that people remember, it encapsulated why people didn't like Labour. So we may be talking at cross purposes. Did it shift votes? I don't think anything much shifta votes. Though arguably the dementia tax did - regrettably, because I think it was the right thing to do.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Leon will be unbearable. Will ruin one of the most memorable events in UK political history.
I think you’re pretty safe, TBH
1 seat after a recount would be very funny.
I trust that Leon's winnings will be going towards a Drone for Ukraine.
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
Electoral Calculus has my North Dorset constituency as the safest Tory seat, so if that one falls to the LDs Sandpit could be in a spot of bother.
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Leon will be unbearable. Will ruin one of the most memorable events in UK political history.
'One of'?!
We had The Motorhome only a year ago.
Sorry but Conservatives on zero seats would trounce that. Not happening though obvs.
A more challenging bet would be who will be the Official Opposition after the election. 85% Con, 10% LD, 5% Reform right now?
BetFair at the moment has 76% Con, 17% LD, 7% Reform
Ah, I never realised there was an actual market for that. My guess was not too far off then.
It's Most Seats Without Labour. £135,000 staked so far. I have £800 on the Tories. If the LDs are the official opposition I don't mind losing!
The penny now dropping. This was not a “mistake” but a deliberate Brexiteer snub of Emmanuel Macron - and the accompanying lobby circus was complicit. It took social media to draw attention to the gross insult
I don't know, Horse, old foal. All hypotheses welcome. After the cardboard buses I'd look every way at anything odd the Tories do, and then reexamine it upside down all over again.
Exactly
Somebody in Downing Street looked at the schedule for D-Day and decided not to attend "the French bit"
That was a conscious decision
They didn't think it was disrespectful to veterans, they didn't think it would upset their Brexity base, they actually thought thumbing their noses at the French was a masterstroke.
Fuck 'em, and the helicopter they flew in on
One can only imagine the trauma of poor Rishi having to listen to Ode To Joy !
I always get emotional listening to OTJ , such a beautiful piece of music . And fxck Farage and the Brexit Party scum who turned their back on it at the European Parliament.
It's just flag/anthem shagging. You like it, fair enough. I can't get excited about any flag or anthem these days.
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
The whole point of the ULEZ is that it's a Zone - it won't be a zone if it's the whole country. And there is no way you could implement it in the countryside for the obvious reason that everyone needs a car...
People know it’s a ratchet. They assume that there will more zones. Based on past experience they are right.
Given the stupid stuff that politicians do and their disconnection from the realities of life, I could easily see a fuck up.
Not just that there will be more zones, but that the existing zones would be amended to cover more vehicles.
Oh, both. Obviously.
On ULEZ and the like - people see the future as being priced out of their cars, while the rich get tax breaks on £100k EVs.
Which is why, despite the elaborate proofs that ULEZ only effected non-existent gammon Fascists, quite a lot of people didn’t like it.
What to do? We need to rebalance the taxation system to give a thumbs up to people in small, lighter cars. End the tax breaks for £100k EVs - that market is rolling. Move the subsidies to cheaper EVs - to encourage the market to move that way. Better deals for the hybrids as well, I think as part of the transition.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Leon will be unbearable. Will ruin one of the most memorable events in UK political history.
'One of'?!
We had The Motorhome only a year ago.
Sorry but Conservatives on zero seats would trounce that. Not happening though obvs.
A more challenging bet would be who will be the Official Opposition after the election. 85% Con, 10% LD, 5% Reform right now?
BetFair at the moment has 76% Con, 17% LD, 7% Reform
Surely 1% Labour?…
I get your point but the actual Betfair market is Most Seats Without Labour.
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
Electoral Calculus has my North Dorset constituency as the safest Tory seat, so if that one falls to the LDs Sandpit could be in a spot of bother.
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
Tory party pick a new leader, that lucky fucker is PM for a few weeks and Sandpit is out ten K.
Well £7,990. You've offered £2k and I'm happy to chip in a tenner to help with Sandpit's losses.
The penny now dropping. This was not a “mistake” but a deliberate Brexiteer snub of Emmanuel Macron - and the accompanying lobby circus was complicit. It took social media to draw attention to the gross insult
I don't know, Horse, old foal. All hypotheses welcome. After the cardboard buses I'd look every way at anything odd the Tories do, and then reexamine it upside down all over again.
Exactly
Somebody in Downing Street looked at the schedule for D-Day and decided not to attend "the French bit"
That was a conscious decision
They didn't think it was disrespectful to veterans, they didn't think it would upset their Brexity base, they actually thought thumbing their noses at the French was a masterstroke.
Fuck 'em, and the helicopter they flew in on
One can only imagine the trauma of poor Rishi having to listen to Ode To Joy !
I always get emotional listening to OTJ , such a beautiful piece of music . And fxck Farage and the Brexit Party scum who turned their back on it at the European Parliament.
It's just flag/anthem shagging. You like it, fair enough. I can't get excited about any flag or anthem these days.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Leon will be unbearable. Will ruin one of the most memorable events in UK political history.
'One of'?!
We had The Motorhome only a year ago.
Sorry but Conservatives on zero seats would trounce that. Not happening though obvs.
A more challenging bet would be who will be the Official Opposition after the election. 85% Con, 10% LD, 5% Reform right now?
BetFair at the moment has 76% Con, 17% LD, 7% Reform
Surely 1% Labour?…
I get your point but the actual Betfair market is Most Seats Without Labour.
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
Electoral Calculus has my North Dorset constituency as the safest Tory seat, so if that one falls to the LDs Sandpit could be in a spot of bother.
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
Electoral Calculus has my North Dorset constituency as the safest Tory seat, so if that one falls to the LDs Sandpit could be in a spot of bother.
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
Tory party pick a new leader, that lucky fucker is PM for a few weeks and Sandpit is out ten K.
Well £7,990. You've offered £2k and I'm happy to chip in a tenner to help with Sandpit's losses.
In the unlikely event he has to pay up, I am sure a whip-round could be arranged to soften the blow.
Leon should on no account waive the bet though. This is a betting Site, and bets are to be taken seriously.
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
Electoral Calculus has my North Dorset constituency as the safest Tory seat, so if that one falls to the LDs Sandpit could be in a spot of bother.
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
Come the election @Sandpit is going to have a tiny tiny tiny tickle of anxiety until that first Tory seat is declared. Imagine if the first Tory seats all fall unexpectedly…. Even the safest ones….
lol. It’s a very sporting offer by @Sandpit and I applaud it
Electoral Calculus has my North Dorset constituency as the safest Tory seat, so if that one falls to the LDs Sandpit could be in a spot of bother.
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
Labour manifesto will commit to introducing an age limit on serving peers.
House of Lords will be scaled back by forcing peers to retire at age 80, or at the end of the parliament in which they reach that age.
It's part of a two-phased approach to Lords reform. There will be some immediate measures, such as banning new hereditary peers. Others will be longer term and not guaranteed within 5 years.
Inappropriate. Fully Elected peers or also force Mps to stand down at the next election once 80
Replace the Lords with 200 people, selected as the closest living illegitimate relatives of Charles II.
Renamed the House of Bastards, the titles will work in reverse order. So you start with “Most Right Honourable and Noble Bastard” and work your way up to Right Honourable Bastard, Right Bastard and finally plain Bastard.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
Tory party pick a new leader, that lucky fucker is PM for a few weeks and Sandpit is out ten K.
Well £7,990. You've offered £2k and I'm happy to chip in a tenner to help with Sandpit's losses.
In the unlikely event he has to pay up, I am sure a whip-round could be arranged to soften the blow.
Leon should on no account waive the bet though. This is a betting Site, and bets are to be taken seriously.
Completely right. @kinabalu misunderstands this quite fundamentally
If bets are waived because of *feelings* then the site become a joke. A place for kids to make pretendy bets
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
One of BoZo advisors was on Newsnight dissecting the D-Day disaster, and she said one of the advantages that Richi has is "he looks Prime Ministerial because he is the Prime Minister"
Except that is exactly part of the problem.
He doesn't look like it.
He looks like a miserable YOPper who hates every minute of it (apart from the private planes)
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
So it’s actually quite hard to hedge this? Is that right? Unless you can find a bookie with odds close to or longer than 1000/1 on zero Tory seats?
as a semi hedge william hill are offering at 100/1 no scottish seats for tories
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked awful yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble to give way to another leader now while he still can.
Labour manifesto will commit to introducing an age limit on serving peers.
House of Lords will be scaled back by forcing peers to retire at age 80, or at the end of the parliament in which they reach that age.
It's part of a two-phased approach to Lords reform. There will be some immediate measures, such as banning new hereditary peers. Others will be longer term and not guaranteed within 5 years.
Inappropriate. Fully Elected peers or also force Mps to stand down at the next election once 80
Replace the Lords with 200 people, selected as the closest living illegitimate relatives of Charles II.
Renamed the House of Bastards, the titles will work in reverse order. So you start with “Most Right Honourable and Noble Bastard” and work your way up to Right Honourable Bastard, Right Bastard and finally plain Bastard.
Who's with me?
"Now take your weapons of mass destruction, and get the fuck out of here!"
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
It does almost feel like the human thing for Starmer to do is say “don’t worry about the concession speech mate, I’ll cover for you”.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
I'm definitely buying this year's equivalent of 'Were You Still Up For Portillo?', the inside story of the collapsing Tory campaign is going to be a cracking read.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Doesn't everyone who is not *actually* supporting the Tories ideally want them to win exactly one seat, in Clacton.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
I don't doubt that he'll be feeling depressed and anxious right now, but there is at least an end in sight to his misery (or the acute phase, anyway).
The question really is over what he does to get himself through to that point. Does he hide himself away in an effort to avoid further mistakes, or does he panic and risk making things worse?
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Doesn't everyone who is not *actually* supporting the Tories ideally want them to win exactly one seat, in Clacton.
I think Tories are value in Clacton. I would tactically vote Tory in that seat, and I suspect that others are thinking the same...
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
BONG And what we're saying is Labour are the largest party BONG Winning the largest majority in modern political history BONG In second, the Liberal Democrats with their best result since 2005. Ed Davey will likely be leader of the opposition BONG And behind them - John, is this right? - in 9th place the Conservatives, our exit poll suggests they will pick up one seat, possibly in Lincolnshire
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends which is irrelevant but he told us that
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
I'm definitely buying this year's equivalent of 'Were You Still Up For Portillo?', the inside story of the collapsing Tory campaign is going to be a cracking read.
Agreed, though I suspect it won’t be a single insider account, more something like Rawnsley’s End Of The Party. There will be a lot of sources all of whom will have their own angle to work. I’ll gobble it up when it arrives though.
Plus I’m not sure who in the current lot would have the writing chops. Gove maybe.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
None of this is going to happen in the real world, but in any event I don't see why Sunak would stand down as PM were he to decide to stand down as party leader mid-election. Johnson continued as PM for a couple of months, and Truss for a few days, after resigning. There is no particular reason why he'd not do the same to 5th July.
There would be no useful purpose in precipitating a constitutional issue (which it would be, as the usual test of who can command a majority in Parliament doesn't apply when it's been dissolved), putting the King in a difficult position and further tarnishing Sunak's own reputation.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked awful yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble to give way to another leader now while he still can.
He is "hiding in a fridge" today
BBC Any Answers is pretty brutal on Sunak D Day no show.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
I expect the billions will offer some comfort if he is wise, but given his golden assent to this office, I’m not sure he will be quite the same. Not good for the ego.
Can a PB expert answer a puzzle. The government itself says that 25% of all schoolchildren qualify for free school meals - over 2 million.
How is this possible in a prosperous country with a minimum wage and high levels of employment? I'm asking a maths/economics question, not a party political one. I live in an area in the bottom third economically, and this just does not seem credible.
Its because poverty is relative.
Many of those eligible for free school meals will also be obese.
Or recently arrived immigrants. Or both.
There is never any shortage of people claiming for free handouts.
Are there no workhouses? Are there no prisons?
The reality is that obesity continues to increase and is highest in deprived areas.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
On the discussion about party loyalty. I am a Conservative member. At the moment I will, with considerable reluctance, vote Conservative. I would describe myself as a One Nation Conservative, but also quite like a lot of the philosophy of Nick Timothy. As a party we have governed poorly, albeit in some difficult circumstances. But, habits are hard to break, locally my MP seems a moderate, the main rivals are the Lib Dems who I dislike especially on EU policy, and I want there to be some Conservative Party left post-election. Then, I guess, the fight for the party will begin.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
And if he can’t find that then he can’t hedge it? Serious question. This is a concept I’ve never really wrapped my head around - out of uninterest or apathy or whatever. How else could you hedge it if you can’t get the longer odds you suggest?
Can the pb betting brainiacs, eg @Peter_the_Punter explain the best way for @Sandpit to hedge his bet against me?
I’ve never really understood this aspect of betting. I’m on a long bus journey to Kyiv so maybe now is the time to learn
Well he just has to find someone to lay same outcome at longer odds
Or bet a tenner on the spreads at less than the current 111 seats. If it turns out to be zero seats, he picks up £1,110 and walks away with a net £110 and you get £1,000. Of course it turns out to be 150 seats he loses £390.
Order of magnitude error there I think! He will lose TEN GRAND to @Leon if the Tories draw a blank
You're right. He needs to bet £100 a seat and hope the Tories don't get more than 111 seats. Phew. Interesting bet. I don't think I'd lay it. It'd be worth the laughs if the Tories actually get zero seats! Though it will cost Sandpit £10,000. Perhaps we could do a whip round?
I don’t want to see a fellow PBers lose such a large sum, especially a gent like @Sandpit, so am rooting for the Tories to do better than zero for this reason alone!
Doesn't everyone who is not *actually* supporting the Tories ideally want them to win exactly one seat, in Clacton.
Yes, given there’s no chance the Lib Dems come through the middle and make it a surprise yellow gain.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
I'm definitely buying this year's equivalent of 'Were You Still Up For Portillo?', the inside story of the collapsing Tory campaign is going to be a cracking read.
It should start with Boris Johnsons denouncing Mays Brexit deal as a national humiliation.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
Yeah, no, same here. He’s not dying of brain cancer
He’s just fucked up spectacularly. And then his life will go on. In Southern California. With his billionaire wife
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
I'm definitely buying this year's equivalent of 'Were You Still Up For Portillo?', the inside story of the collapsing Tory campaign is going to be a cracking read.
Agreed, though I suspect it won’t be a single insider account, more something like Rawnsley’s End Of The Party. There will be a lot of sources all of whom will have their own angle to work. I’ll gobble it up when it arrives though.
Plus I’m not sure who in the current lot would have the writing chops. Gove maybe.
Yeah, that's a good point, Gove is quitting and will have a lot of gossip. It will be galling if he writes a half decent book, but I'll be forced to read it...
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
I expect the billions will offer some comfort if he is wise, but given his golden assent to this office, I’m not sure he will be quite the same. Not good for the ego.
It’s instructive that the last two Conservative leaders have been so poor that their exit has made observers genuinely concerned for their wellbeing.
Whoever they get in next, they really need to look, in great depth and fearlessly, at their culture of loyalty and patronage and their processes of election. It couldn’t be clearer that it has been disastrous for them.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I've bet quite heavily on the 50-99 band, and am now kicking myself for not having covered 0-49 too when it was 200/1 or whatever.
There's £11 at 4/1 still available on Betfair, but that's not exactly tempting either.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
He’s never failed. All of us on this site have, I am sure, screwed up badly at some time. He hasn’t. Yet. His first massive failure will be the most public and devastating humiliation since…well…Liz Truss. But if rumours are to be accepted she’s used to a bit of humiliation. Not Rishi. He’s about to fail in a way that no amount of creativity on his CV is going to hide. Do I feel sorry for him? I was tempted but…on reflection…no.
I have the feeling that Shakespeare could right some interesting plays about our recent prime ministers. All tragic and flawed figures, but in radically different and quite interesting ways.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
I don't doubt that he'll be feeling depressed and anxious right now, but there is at least an end in sight to his misery (or the acute phase, anyway).
The question really is over what he does to get himself through to that point. Does he hide himself away in an effort to avoid further mistakes, or does he panic and risk making things worse?
His view on mental health, as we’ve been told repeatedly, is that we are over medicalising what are just the ups and downs of life.
And yes, the thing with elections is they offer a moment of catharsis in defeat. I remember that feeling in 2019. Its was a sort of relief to know the Brexit fight was now completely over.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I agree, I am on 0-49 with £16 at 20/1.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
Can a PB expert answer a puzzle. The government itself says that 25% of all schoolchildren qualify for free school meals - over 2 million.
How is this possible in a prosperous country with a minimum wage and high levels of employment? I'm asking a maths/economics question, not a party political one. I live in an area in the bottom third economically, and this just does not seem credible.
Its because poverty is relative.
Many of those eligible for free school meals will also be obese.
Or recently arrived immigrants. Or both.
There is never any shortage of people claiming for free handouts.
Are there no workhouses? Are there no prisons?
The reality is that obesity continues to increase and is highest in deprived areas.
Unsurprising, of course. Good food (along with access to sporting facilities, one might add) costs a lot more than pile em high, sell em cheap ultra-processed fat blocks.
Funny if she gets 1,000 votes and the LDs miss out by 100. Not sure why she's standing here when it can only help the Tories to hold the seat.
She formed her own party despite, as far as I can tell, other parties already filling the niche she would seek to fill, and she could probably have been adopted as a candidate by one of them if she had wanted.
Lacking a highly specific niche, the other explanation for a minor party is typically around ego.
So hypothetically say Sunak has had enough, can’t go on, and resigns now (for whatever reason) as PM and leader, constitutionally what happens next.
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
I think Sunak would have to stay PM (unless dead) and hunker down in No 10. The Tories then pick a separate leader (by acclamation) to fight the election and argue their case to be PM thereafter.
I worry slightly about Sunak’s mental health. To so visibly and personally screw up, it might even take more than the arrogance of a public schoolboy to overcome that. It must be dismal right now.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
He looked terrible yesterday, and I felt sorry for him.
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
I feel a bit sorry for him but
1. Its all on him, he called this election now 2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun 3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION 4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes 5. He has no working class friends he told us
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
I expect the billions will offer some comfort if he is wise, but given his golden assent to this office, I’m not sure he will be quite the same. Not good for the ego.
I'd have thought it won't be too difficult to rationalise for him. The personal narrative is that he nobly stepped up after the disaster of Truss, stabilised the economy, and then lost an election that she, Johnson, a long period in office, and ungovernable backbenchers had rendered unwinnable. If the defeat is catastrophic, you add in some criticism of CCHQ and unfair media coverage.
I'm not saying that's strictly true, but that's a reasonable story he can tell himself. Egos are pretty resilient, particularly those of senior politicians.
On the discussion about party loyalty. I am a Conservative member. At the moment I will, with considerable reluctance, vote Conservative. I would describe myself as a One Nation Conservative, but also quite like a lot of the philosophy of Nick Timothy. As a party we have governed poorly, albeit in some difficult circumstances. But, habits are hard to break, locally my MP seems a moderate, the main rivals are the Lib Dems who I dislike especially on EU policy, and I want there to be some Conservative Party left post-election. Then, I guess, the fight for the party will begin.
Good luck! It will not be a pleasant or easy fight.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
Pretty sure he would, his insatiable need to be proved right would swamp any finer feelings. There might even be some unseemly crowing..
Ah but he'd get double bubble from "Ok I've won, what a call, what a stone cold genius am I, but keep the 10 grand mate, I don't want or need it, it's fine."
Mmm no. I’d rather have the £10k. That’s a lot of fun, £10k
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
It's hard to price vanishingly unlikely outcomes in things like sport and politics. Eg to meaningfully visualize 500/1 vs 1000/1.
3/1 0n 0-49 now at Ladbrokes.
Nuts. Also horrible value; I’d be astonished if they went under 50.
I agree, I am on 0-49 with £16 at 20/1.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
I think there will be a moment in a week or so after further Tory polling falls and a mini Reform bump when a more realistic seat number (200+) becomes value. There is still plenty of scope for Reform to fall away before the election and those votes to go back largely to Con. especially if people start getting complacent about a Labour landslide.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
To be fair to kinabalu, I can totally see his point. I wouldn't enjoy taking £10k off an identifiable human who I sort of know. But for that reason I wouldn't have made the bet in the first place because it can have only downside! If you're both comfortable with the bet, it makes a bit of a mockery of thr process not to take it.
Again, what's the point of Gina Miller standing in Epsom & Ewell when Dominic Raab has stood down and the LDs are hoping to take the seat from the Tories? She could have stood in any other seat in that area. Bad politics.
Another egotist with no chance of winning and the political nous of a crushed amoeba
For all the jokes or out there predictions around an existential collapse of the Tories, the fact of the matter is political anoraks are having to face it as a genuine possibility.
If that prospect breaks through more into the public consciousness it could become a self fulfilling prophecy - they might regret it later, but a substrant of remaining Tory support might feel there is a benefit to helping form the successor party on the right.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I'm pretty sure he would. #classicleon
I’m pretty sure you would as well. A bet is a bet. This is a betting site
I definitely would.
I once won 200 quid in a contest to see who could eat a whole packet of digestive biscuits the quickest with no fluids. I collected my winnings and was then suckered into a second round. I made the tactical error of making myself spew up the first packet and felt so rotten I couldn't finish the second packet. So I had to hand back the original 200 quid and another 200 quid on top of that. #anofficerandagentleman
Reminds me a bit of Luke and the eggs. But that's different. You lost a good old-fashioned even money 'double or quits' there.
That's a silly bet. It won't happen and if it did - which it won't - Leon won't claim the 10 grand off Sandpit.
I absolutely would. What’s more I would expect to be paid - what is the point of this site if people welch on bets. It ruins everything
If an amoral, whoremongering thug like @SeanT can nobly cough up £1000 when he loses a bet so can any PBer. And @Sandpit strikes me as a man of his word
No doubt he is but you would waive it. I certainly would and so would you. It's too lopsided. Bets at 1000/1 aren't for private consumption. But not to bicker on about it since we won't get to find out what you'd do. It's a fun way of you paying a tenner to Good Causes. On that basis I'm happy to greenlight it.
No. No no no. I really would collect the cash
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
To be fair to kinabalu, I can totally see his point. I wouldn't enjoy taking £10k off an identifiable human who I sort of know. But for that reason I wouldn't have made the bet in the first place because it can have only downside! If you're both comfortable with the bet, it makes a bit of a mockery of thr process not to take it.
Speaking as a member of the legal profession I wouldn’t worry too much about taking £10k off an identifiable human you sort of know. It takes getting used to but the transition is surprisingly easy.
Comments
Asking for a friend, who wants to bet £20 at 1000/1.
The perennial Tory candidate Earl Dudley, who uses every by-election as an opportunity to advertise his pornographic Hi-NRG music video youtube channel, should win some sort of special award for showing people exactly how fucking stupid the peerage system really is.
LAB GAIN Kingwinsford and South Staffordshire... 198bpm
I guess he (or the cabinet) would give the King a name (Cameron probably, maybe Hunt) to invite to become PM until July 4. Who becomes Tory leader in this circumstance? There is no deputy.
How does it work?
Roughly London to Durham.
So we may be talking at cross purposes.
Did it shift votes? I don't think anything much shifta votes. Though arguably the dementia tax did - regrettably, because I think it was the right thing to do.
We are such different people, you and I. And I think you’re the outlier here
I would absolutely take the money and then I would post photos of me drinking champagne in exotic places for the next 3 months (so no change there then)
Why would I not take it?! You are quite strange. @sandpit is a consenting adult with all his wits and this is a betting site. We’ve made a bet
What’s more I’m confident @Sandpit would pay
A betting site where people don’t honour bets because that’s cruel is completely ludicrous
Tbh, talking to people round here, it doesn't feel that safe any more.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
Yes yours was a good guess.
On ULEZ and the like - people see the future as being priced out of their cars, while the rich get tax breaks on £100k EVs.
Which is why, despite the elaborate proofs that ULEZ only effected non-existent gammon Fascists, quite a lot of people didn’t like it.
What to do? We need to rebalance the taxation system to give a thumbs up to people in small, lighter cars. End the tax breaks for £100k EVs - that market is rolling. Move the subsidies to cheaper EVs - to encourage the market to move that way. Better deals for the hybrids as well, I think as part of the transition.
#willplaythebigman
No, good point.
Apart from anything else Alicia Kearns will benefit from split opposition.
I wonder what the actual odds are - of the Tories getting zero. Someone upthread said 200/1? That’s a measure of how bad things are for the Tories
Leon should on no account waive the bet though. This is a betting Site, and bets are to be taken seriously.
Whatever happens when the story of his no10 is told it could be eye opening.
Leanne Mohamad (Ind)
Shabaz Hussain (Workers Party)
Renamed the House of Bastards, the titles will work in reverse order. So you start with “Most Right Honourable and Noble Bastard” and work your way up to Right Honourable Bastard, Right Bastard and finally plain Bastard.
Whose with me?
What facile shit.
If bets are waived because of *feelings* then the site become a joke. A place for kids to make pretendy bets
I wonder if he might decide it's less trouble, and he'll carry less of the can historically, if he honourably gives way to another leader now, while he perhaps still can.
Except that is exactly part of the problem.
He doesn't look like it.
He looks like a miserable YOPper who hates every minute of it (apart from the private planes)
I've just read the Parris article on Sunak.
Can King Charles bring forward the date of the GE somehow and get this over with now.
The question really is over what he does to get himself through to that point. Does he hide himself away in an effort to avoid further mistakes, or does he panic and risk making things worse?
And what we're saying is Labour are the largest party
BONG
Winning the largest majority in modern political history
BONG
In second, the Liberal Democrats with their best result since 2005. Ed Davey will likely be leader of the opposition
BONG
And behind them - John, is this right? - in 9th place the Conservatives, our exit poll suggests they will pick up one seat, possibly in Lincolnshire
1. Its all on him, he called this election now
2. He’ll waltz out of politics into a cushty job in Silicon Valley in the Californian sun
3. He and his wife are worth £1 BILLION
4. He has a sweet young family and lovely homes
5. He has no working class friends which is irrelevant but he told us that
So actually no I don’t feel sorry for him. Politics is a rough old game and he chose it. And it turns out he’s crap at it. Lesson learned
Plus I’m not sure who in the current lot would have the writing chops. Gove maybe.
There would be no useful purpose in precipitating a constitutional issue (which it would be, as the usual test of who can command a majority in Parliament doesn't apply when it's been dissolved), putting the King in a difficult position and further tarnishing Sunak's own reputation.
It's way over the top.
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/health/diet-and-exercise/overweight-children/latest/
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03336/SN03336.pdf
No, sorry, I am stretchimg pedantic betting too far.
I am certain of this and happy to put my money where my mouth is. Even money and £25 says I'm right.
Bet void if the Cons win a seat obviously.
Deal?
He’s just fucked up spectacularly. And then his life will go on. In Southern California. With his billionaire wife
Whoever they get in next, they really need to look, in great depth and fearlessly, at their culture of loyalty and patronage and their processes of election. It couldn’t be clearer that it has been disastrous for them.
There's £11 at 4/1 still available on Betfair, but that's not exactly tempting either.
And yes, the thing with elections is they offer a moment of catharsis in defeat. I remember that feeling in 2019. Its was a sort of relief to know the Brexit fight was now completely over.
Am buying 100-149 seats at the moment. I think that's where it will land, and value at 3.8 at present. However appalled various Tory voters are, they will still turn out and vote.
Lacking a highly specific niche, the other explanation for a minor party is typically around ego.
I'm not saying that's strictly true, but that's a reasonable story he can tell himself. Egos are pretty resilient, particularly those of senior politicians.
If that prospect breaks through more into the public consciousness it could become a self fulfilling prophecy - they might regret it later, but a substrant of remaining Tory support might feel there is a benefit to helping form the successor party on the right.