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London Falling. The Capital and the election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
imageLondon Falling. The Capital and the election – politicalbetting.com

Stodge gives his analysis on London

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    First?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    Second! Like Sunak if he's very lucky
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    3rd rate Sunak.
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    Fourth like England
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    Second like the Tories
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    edited June 8
    Third. Like the LibDems if Sunak is very lucky!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,458
    edited June 8
    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,123
    Great analysis Stodge. Agree with almost all of it, except I expect Wes to have a harder time in Ilford North than you'd imagine. I think the Tories take ca 13 in London overall.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 8
    Interesting analyses.
    On the other side, I'm particularly interested in this theory that the Tories will do particularly badly in the SouthWest. It's been variously Parliamentarian, Religious Non-Conformist, and then Liberal territory for hundreds of years, ofcourse. John Locke and. Glastonbury.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    In how many seats (country here, not just London) do we think Reform will get more votes than the Conservatives?

    I'm going to go for 77
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Farooq said:

    In how many seats (country here, not just London) do we think Reform will get more votes than the Conservatives?

    I'm going to go for 77

    Some seats in South Wales might be interesting from that point of view.
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    Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    Which is the seat with no LibDem candidate?

    Is Rotherham a chance for Reform, with no Tory candidate?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,087
    Thanks Stodge. Good stuff.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 8
    IanB2 said:

    Which is the seat with no LibDem candidate?

    Is Rotherham a chance for Reform, with no Tory candidate?

    Almost certainly.

    I think Reform win two seats, Rotherham and Clacton.

    No, I’m not getting on the spread bet mentioned yesterday (selling Reform seats at 4.5), which could go quite horribly wrong if the Tories implode in the next four weeks.
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    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.
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    The Tories pledge to remove ULEZ in London despite a Mayor being elected on it.

    This is kooky nonsense and completely anti-democratic.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I can say at least 1 is 😇

    Could this story hurt the Conservative vote

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/08/south-west-water-seizes-stake-in-devon-sewage-protester-home-withheld-payments

    Based on how the foreign owned water companies, who keep creaming dividends, are held in low esteem by customers/voters for the performance they are giving us? It makes the headline and story here (if true, this is the Guardian) give a whiff of the post office scandal?
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,838

    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.

    Seriously?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.

    I think so. I thought she put in an average performance but then she had very little to work with.
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    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1799378696777629806

    The Tories have pledged to reverse the Ulez expansion and limit 20mph in Wales in a new law

    Would the Tories like to have a go at defending this?
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    In how many seats (country here, not just London) do we think Reform will get more votes than the Conservatives?

    I'm going to go for 77

    Some seats in South Wales might be interesting from that point of view.
    Yes, I'm certain there'll be a few down there with Lab - Ref as the 1-2
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532
    I do wonder if absent some really Big Thing, this election campaign is over? We have upcoming football and tennis and frankly, any other distraction you can take from politics before we vote.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926

    Great analysis Stodge. Agree with almost all of it, except I expect Wes to have a harder time in Ilford North than you'd imagine. I think the Tories take ca 13 in London overall.

    Wes will be fine; he's nationally prominent now, and history suggests voters like having a well-known MP. The tiniest of quibles with the lead - there is still Tory strength in the north of his seat, and some Tory councillors held on there in a terrible year for them.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,240
    edited June 8
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.

    Even speaking as someone who thinks the 20mph zones are inept policy implemented by apes, a phrase about sledgehammers and nuts springs to mind.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @alexwickham

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924
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    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    DougSeal said:

    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.

    Seriously?
    No. Don’t be daft.

    IncorrectHorseBat is just trying to ‘out satirise’ the Tory campaign, and failing. You can’t out satirise this campaign.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 700

    I do wonder if absent some really Big Thing, this election campaign is over? We have upcoming football and tennis and frankly, any other distraction you can take from politics before we vote.

    I thought you were getting really good feedback on the doorstep, though?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,123

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I can say at least 1 is 😇

    Could this story hurt the Conservative vote

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/08/south-west-water-seizes-stake-in-devon-sewage-protester-home-withheld-payments

    Based on how the foreign owned water companies, who keep creaming dividends, are held in low esteem by customers/voters for the performance they are giving us? It makes the headline and story here (if true, this is the Guardian) give a whiff of the post office scandal?
    No, she's an activist who doesn't like paying tax. Campaigning against their practices and not paying your way are two separate things. It's like me refusing to pay VAT because I'm annoyed about defence cuts
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408

    The Tories pledge to remove ULEZ in London despite a Mayor being elected on it.

    This is kooky nonsense and completely anti-democratic.

    Given approx 95% of cars comply then what’s the point . Before people realized their car was okay it might have had an impact . And yes it’s anti-Democratic . It seems the Tories are now spewing out countless policies in the hope something might stick and give them a boost .
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    From last night’s thread:

    In two minds about that one [Tory plan to scrap devolution of motoring legislation], as someone who doesn’t want to see personal freedom and economic growth strangled by an ideological anti-car agenda, but also believes in devolution of as many powers as possible to local authorities rather than central government.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 8
    Roger said:
    I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday.
    She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,123

    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.

    Anti devolution has some traction in Wales, Abolish etc, but it's a niche market
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,842
    Thanks Stodge. I've laid Labour @ 1.4 for Croydon South. You'd like that bet, I'm thinking?
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,105
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which is the seat with no LibDem candidate?

    Is Rotherham a chance for Reform, with no Tory candidate?

    Almost certainly.

    I think Reform win two seats, Rotherham and Clacton.

    No, I’m not getting on the spread bet mentioned yesterday (selling Reform seats at 4.5), which could go quite horribly wrong if the Tories implode in the next four weeks.
    The YouGov MRP for Rotherham had Lab 53%, Reform 19%, Con 13% so even if Reform can take all the Tory vote (not a given) then it's still going to be hard for them to win. There are better prospects for Reform in going for Con held seats e.g. Boston, Ashfield
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.

    I assume that devolution is not as passionately held in Wales as in Scotland? It's only a few Tories who seriously consider reversing it up here, and my impression is that Wales does not have the same left wing majority in favour of it.

    That aside, I presume the announcement is not actually about Wales but rather stirring the petrolheads of England up.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,319
    200 days to Christmas, or winterval as Nigel Farage knows it. We need Stodge's tips to come in to pay the extra tax Penny warned us about last night.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878

    200 days to Christmas, or winterval as Nigel Farage knows it. We need Stodge's tips to come in to pay the extra tax Penny warned us about last night.

    M&S no longer sells EASTER eggs during Winterval. It's like the whole fucking country has gone woke sharia.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,189
    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    Just Micky Mouse degrees like PPE
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    PJHPJH Posts: 571

    The Tories pledge to remove ULEZ in London despite a Mayor being elected on it.

    This is kooky nonsense and completely anti-democratic.

    Would they like to give me my old car back and refund me the £10k I've shelled out on a different car unnecessarily?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,458
    Redisovered interviews with LS Lowry.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjllk8x353yo

    There's a snippet, but - annoyingly - no information about the whole lot being broadcast.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 8
    Sandpit said:

    From last night’s thread:

    In two minds about that one [Tory plan to scrap devolution of motoring legislation], as someone who doesn’t want to see personal freedom and economic growth strangled by an ideological anti-car agenda, but also believes in devolution of as many powers as possible to local authorities rather than central government.

    I don't think it's particularly idealogical - you have Tory councils across the country introducing 20mph schemes, approving new LTNs based on both evidence and the fact they tend to be rather popular. See the very active campaign for 20mph in Sunak's constituency, for example.

    In my part of the world the motorist lobby is a mixed bunch. Lib Dems, SNP white van types, most, but certainly not all, Conservatives.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,123
    edited June 8
    David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick.
    However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory
    Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Sunak has to be getting worried he will lose his seat. It will mean he gets an excuse to leave public life and go to California sooner, but very embarrassing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    I see there's 136 candidates in Northern Ireland compared to 102 last time. That's fantastic stuff, and hopefully is replicated elsewhere, as there are many more than usual round my way as well.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgglge642ro
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,200
    .
    PJH said:

    The Tories pledge to remove ULEZ in London despite a Mayor being elected on it.

    This is kooky nonsense and completely anti-democratic.

    Would they like to give me my old car back and refund me the £10k I've shelled out on a different car unnecessarily?
    Only if you're over 65.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
    Well, it has to be admitted only one.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    Just Micky Mouse degrees like PPE
    Oi! Please withdraw that slur on Micky Mouse degrees.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Farooq said:

    200 days to Christmas, or winterval as Nigel Farage knows it. We need Stodge's tips to come in to pay the extra tax Penny warned us about last night.

    M&S no longer sells EASTER eggs during Winterval. It's like the whole fucking country has gone woke sharia.
    In all seriousness I am surprised they are not mroe generally branded as merely chocolate eggs and sold all year round.

    People tell me Hot Cross Buns used to be a seasonal item as well, what a dark time that must have been.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,123

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which is the seat with no LibDem candidate?

    Is Rotherham a chance for Reform, with no Tory candidate?

    Almost certainly.

    I think Reform win two seats, Rotherham and Clacton.

    No, I’m not getting on the spread bet mentioned yesterday (selling Reform seats at 4.5), which could go quite horribly wrong if the Tories implode in the next four weeks.
    The YouGov MRP for Rotherham had Lab 53%, Reform 19%, Con 13% so even if Reform can take all the Tory vote (not a given) then it's still going to be hard for them to win. There are better prospects for Reform in going for Con held seats e.g. Boston, Ashfield
    The accuracy of VI on a seat by seat basis of these MRPs is extremely low
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    DougSeal said:

    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.

    Seriously?
    The Tories in Wales are so utterly inept against failing incumbency that it remains quite sensible. 20 mph is still widely derided but things like the Conservatives in Westminster's capitulation to Tata over subsidies for electric arc furnaces should be of more concern.

    The BBC, ITV and Wales Online are generally manned by PC supporters. They are very much not pro-Tory but their critique is of the Government in Cardiff, not Westminster which assists the Tories. Devolution in Wales is not popular, but it might end up being a case of Joni Mitchell's Big Yellow Taxi.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,458
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    I'd have to take a bit of time to get to 2 decimal places on that one.

    Iteration of 13 + x in my head via a^2 + 2ab + b^2 would take a minute.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,687
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    I have a 101% record on getting the square root of fuck all.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    The original article outside the firewall is here:

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/moment-tories-long-dreaded-finally-050000252.html
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
    Well, it has to be admitted only one.
    So you know 169 is 13, and 196 is 14, and guessed 175 must be 13.2 (ish)?
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    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    They 'question' his competence?
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    edited June 8
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
    Well, it has to be admitted only one.
    So you know 169 is 13, and 196 is 14, and guessed 175 must be 13.2 (ish)?
    That's what I did, and came to a sort of guess that it was about 13.15. Not an idiotic answer, but not close enough to make me proud of myself.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,319
    kle4 said:

    Sunak has to be getting worried he will lose his seat. It will mean he gets an excuse to leave public life and go to California sooner, but very embarrassing.

    If the critics are right that Rishi is off to California then surely he'd want to lose his seat.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    I'm guessing that Farage was at some past point promised a peerage by the Tories, that they then didn't, or couldn't, deliver.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,123

    DougSeal said:

    The Tories pledge to roll back devolution to stop 20mph zones in Wales.

    Seriously?
    The Tories in Wales are so utterly inept against failing incumbency that it remains quite sensible. 20 mph is still widely derided but things like the Conservatives in Westminster's capitulation to Tata over subsidies for electric arc furnaces should be of more concern.

    The BBC, ITV and Wales Online are generally manned by PC supporters. They are very much not pro-Tory but their critique is of the Government in Cardiff, not Westminster which assists the Tories. Devolution in Wales is not popular, but it might end up being a case of Joni Mitchell's Big Yellow Taxi.
    The Taffy Tories are really fighting for 4 seats only. Montgomery, Brecon, Monmouth and Preseli. I guess Ynys Mon is weird enough to turn into a bizarre three way fight too, but likely with Tories lagging in third
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,458
    PJH said:

    The Tories pledge to remove ULEZ in London despite a Mayor being elected on it.

    This is kooky nonsense and completely anti-democratic.

    Would they like to give me my old car back and refund me the £10k I've shelled out on a different car unnecessarily?
    What are the odds on Susan Hall replacing Rishi Sunak?
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    — Sunak himself was said to be despondent at the reaction to his D-Day mistake

    — but Cabinet has little sympathy and is turning on the PM

    — a previously loyal minister says they now regret that the party didn’t oust him before the election

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799352477030228076

    Does he have no common sense? How did he see D-Day playing well?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,200
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    200 days to Christmas, or winterval as Nigel Farage knows it. We need Stodge's tips to come in to pay the extra tax Penny warned us about last night.

    M&S no longer sells EASTER eggs during Winterval. It's like the whole fucking country has gone woke sharia.
    In all seriousness I am surprised they are not mroe generally branded as merely chocolate eggs and sold all year round.

    People tell me Hot Cross Buns used to be a seasonal item as well, what a dark time that must have been.
    No love for the simnel cake ?
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 8

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    I must say for me Horse's post is useful because, taken altogether, it hints that some Tories may be even be thinking of dumping Sunak now.

    That would be fairly crazy at this stage, ofcourse, but then again this has been a crazy election period overall, so anything can happen,
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 8
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    I'd have to take a bit of time to get to 2 decimal places on that one.

    Iteration of 13 + x in my head via a^2 + 2ab + b^2 would take a minute.
    I didn't bother with that. I worked out the squares of 13 being 169 and 14 being 196 that it would be somewhat closer to 13 than 14 and I therefore plumped for 13.2.

    It's actually 13.235 to three places.
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
    Well, it has to be admitted only one.
    So you know 169 is 13, and 196 is 14, and guessed 175 must be 13.2 (ish)?
    Yes, as you can see you guessed correctly (as did I).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    edited June 8

    Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.

    About 2.6 years ago to be precise.

    That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    Why does anyone post any links on here? A: to share news, opinion, information, gossip, jokes...

    I cannot imagine why you are so sore about Battery posting this?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    I'd have to take a bit of time to get to 2 decimal places on that one.

    Iteration of 13 + x in my head via a^2 + 2ab + b^2 would take a minute.
    I didn't bother with that. I worked out the squares of 13 being 169 and 14 being 196 that it would be somewhat closer to 13 than 14 and I therefore plumped for 13.2.

    It's actually 13.235 to three places.
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
    Well, it has to be admitted only one.
    So you know 169 is 13, and 196 is 14, and guessed 175 must be 13.2 (ish)?
    Yes, as you can see you guessed correctly (as did I).
    Nope, it’s 13.2287565553
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    200 days to Christmas, or winterval as Nigel Farage knows it. We need Stodge's tips to come in to pay the extra tax Penny warned us about last night.

    M&S no longer sells EASTER eggs during Winterval. It's like the whole fucking country has gone woke sharia.
    In all seriousness I am surprised they are not mroe generally branded as merely chocolate eggs and sold all year round.

    People tell me Hot Cross Buns used to be a seasonal item as well, what a dark time that must have been.
    No love for the simnel cake ?
    I don't believe I've had the pleasure.

    This is what we used to do at Easter.

    https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/recipes/cuddly-egg-men
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which is the seat with no LibDem candidate?

    Is Rotherham a chance for Reform, with no Tory candidate?

    Almost certainly.

    I think Reform win two seats, Rotherham and Clacton.

    No, I’m not getting on the spread bet mentioned yesterday (selling Reform seats at 4.5), which could go quite horribly wrong if the Tories implode in the next four weeks.
    The YouGov MRP for Rotherham had Lab 53%, Reform 19%, Con 13% so even if Reform can take all the Tory vote (not a given) then it's still going to be hard for them to win. There are better prospects for Reform in going for Con held seats e.g. Boston, Ashfield
    The accuracy of VI on a seat by seat basis of these MRPs is extremely low
    I grew up a couple of constituencies over and there’s certainly a decent chunk of people there to whom Reform will have a strong appeal - that said though, if Sarah Champion hung on last time amid a general swing to Con and the specific circumstances of the Rotherham grooming and rape scandal then I would expect her to do so again.
  • Options

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    Why does anyone post any links on here? A: to share news, opinion, information, gossip, jokes...

    I cannot imagine why you are so sore about Battery posting this?
    Because Moon is annoyed their "actually the Tories are doing great" rubbish has failed.

    She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem, then she had a Damascene conversion to being a Tory and then spent the last two weeks telling us Rishi is actually good and the public will produce a Tory victory.

    Her judgement is a joke and she's been found out. That's why she's going off on one.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354

    kle4 said:

    Sunak has to be getting worried he will lose his seat. It will mean he gets an excuse to leave public life and go to California sooner, but very embarrassing.

    If the critics are right that Rishi is off to California then surely he'd want to lose his seat.
    The type of job he gets might depend on how much of a laughing stock he is.

    I know Clegg didn't exactly end things in great circumstances, politically speaking, but it's on a different level of presiding over what might be a Canada 1993 scenario for the natural party of goverment.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    The really stupid thing is this *isn't* a snap election. There had to be an election within six months anyway and anyone sane would therefore have been fully prepared for one to be called at any moment.

    As Starmer and Davey clearly were. Not so much Swinney but we can forgive that given the circumstances.

    This is just pathetic incompetence by the whole party hierarchy. No wonder they're fighting to dodge blame like ferrets in a sack.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,010
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    I'd have to take a bit of time to get to 2 decimal places on that one.

    Iteration of 13 + x in my head via a^2 + 2ab + b^2 would take a minute.
    I didn't bother with that. I worked out the squares of 13 being 169 and 14 being 196 that it would be somewhat closer to 13 than 14 and I therefore plumped for 13.2.

    It's actually 13.235 to three places.
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
    Well, it has to be admitted only one.
    So you know 169 is 13, and 196 is 14, and guessed 175 must be 13.2 (ish)?
    Yes, as you can see you guessed correctly (as did I).
    Is that what ChatGPT told you?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    Talking to a staunch Labour friend yesterday, who said he is encouraging his Conservative friends …… he talks to lots of people, especially in the pub …… to vote Reform this time, on the grounds that Labour might just sneak a win here.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 8
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    I'd have to take a bit of time to get to 2 decimal places on that one.

    Iteration of 13 + x in my head via a^2 + 2ab + b^2 would take a minute.
    I didn't bother with that. I worked out the squares of 13 being 169 and 14 being 196 that it would be somewhat closer to 13 than 14 and I therefore plumped for 13.2.

    It's actually 13.235 to three places.
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I have to say the maths around here is awful.

    Are you all Arts graduates?

    I was pleased with myself yesterday. I got the square root of 175 without a calculator.
    To how many decimal places?
    Well, it has to be admitted only one.
    So you know 169 is 13, and 196 is 14, and guessed 175 must be 13.2 (ish)?
    Yes, as you can see you guessed correctly (as did I).
    Nope, it’s 13.2287565553
    #pedanticbetting.com clearly includes better calculators than mine.

    But I'll still take it :smile:
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069

    Roger said:
    I don't think the hectoring style was her comformt zone yesterday.
    She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
    Penny would be legendary if she had

    a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly

    b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.

    Sadly, she doesn't.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Mordaunt -19 in the debate. To be honest I’d have scored her net positive so I do wonder again if it’s just another sign the public gave up with the Tories long ago.

    About 2.6 years ago to be precise.

    That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
    I do think we will come to believe that this election was lost in 2022.

    Johnson should have gone after Hartlepool and he'd have won a landslide then. That was the peak and it's been downhill ever since.

    Of course, the Tories were never truly popular but SKS for a while was doing terribly. So the Tories had room there to defeat him.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,319

    — Sunak himself was said to be despondent at the reaction to his D-Day mistake

    — but Cabinet has little sympathy and is turning on the PM

    — a previously loyal minister says they now regret that the party didn’t oust him before the election

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799352477030228076

    Does he have no common sense? How did he see D-Day playing well?

    Rishi looked close to giving up on the D-Day apology interview. It does, however, give the lie to Cameron's outstanding political judgement, since the noble lord must have known long in advance that he would be standing in for the Prime Minister.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,289
    edited June 8
    FPT

    Updated forecast from New Statesman.

    Lab 456
    Con 86
    LD 64
    SNP 20
    PC 3
    Ref 1
    Grn 1

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    The really stupid thing is this *isn't* a snap election. There had to be an election within six months anyway and anyone sane would therefore have been fully prepared for one to be called at any moment.

    As Starmer and Davey clearly were. Not so much Swinney but we can forgive that given the circumstances.

    This is just pathetic incompetence by the whole party hierarchy. No wonder they're fighting to dodge blame like ferrets in a sack.
    I really can now believe that Sunak just woke up and called it.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which is the seat with no LibDem candidate?

    Is Rotherham a chance for Reform, with no Tory candidate?

    Almost certainly.

    I think Reform win two seats, Rotherham and Clacton.

    No, I’m not getting on the spread bet mentioned yesterday (selling Reform seats at 4.5), which could go quite horribly wrong if the Tories implode in the next four weeks.
    The YouGov MRP for Rotherham had Lab 53%, Reform 19%, Con 13% so even if Reform can take all the Tory vote (not a given) then it's still going to be hard for them to win. There are better prospects for Reform in going for Con held seats e.g. Boston, Ashfield
    Yes, my thinking is that the Reform campaign in Rotherham is going to be very specific to past events in that constituency, and that general assumptions don’t necessarily hold there.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354

    David Davis was cosplaying Hezza last night with his 'the feedback on the doorsteps is not like the polls!' Schtick.
    However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory
    Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day

    I take a different view on the impact of the lack of keeness.

    I think there might be some from the Labour direction, sure, but that will be exceeded by despondent Tories staying at home, so the net effect will still be to their benefit.

    I don't think Galloway's mob or Reform will eat into them significantly, again as compared to the impact on the Tories (at least for Reform).
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 8
    FWIW:

    ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)

    20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.

    LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,395
    The odds I have been following most closely are those on the Con v Reform match bet.

    At one point this hit Cons 1.5, Reform 3 (£100s offered), although it is now 1.4 / 3.5 and the market is thinner.

    This would be the biggest electoral shock in about a century. Plenty of cash to be made.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
    Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things

    1 a female pb-er (um, I think)
    And
    2. Committed Tory (even rarer)

    Also might be under 50. We need these people
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    — Sunak himself was said to be despondent at the reaction to his D-Day mistake

    — but Cabinet has little sympathy and is turning on the PM

    — a previously loyal minister says they now regret that the party didn’t oust him before the election

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799352477030228076

    Does he have no common sense? How did he see D-Day playing well?

    Rishi looked close to giving up on the D-Day apology interview. It does, however, give the lie to Cameron's outstanding political judgement, since the noble lord must have known long in advance that he would be standing in for the Prime Minister.
    Both Dave and Shapps warned Sunak against his early departure as soon as they learned about it.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,240
    Interresting. When you thought things couldn't get worse for the Tories....follow the slug trail

    https://x.com/jayrayner1/status/1799358530354622595
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864

    The odds I have been following most closely are those on the Con v Reform match bet.

    At one point this hit Cons 1.5, Reform 3 (£100s offered), although it is now 1.4 / 3.5 and the market is thinner.

    This would be the biggest electoral shock in about a century. Plenty of cash to be made.

    Problem is Reform aren't standing in a 100 or so seats - that gives the Conservatives a massive advantage because the only seat they aren't standing in is Rotherham...
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,123

    — Sunak himself was said to be despondent at the reaction to his D-Day mistake

    — but Cabinet has little sympathy and is turning on the PM

    — a previously loyal minister says they now regret that the party didn’t oust him before the election

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799352477030228076

    Does he have no common sense? How did he see D-Day playing well?

    I'm getting fed up to the back teeth with Tory whining and woe is me horse shit. If they've blown the election win (of course they have) then they have a job to do if they wish to remain in public service - to fight to be the largest and most effective loyal opposition they can. If they can't do that they need to piss off, hide under the bed and let someone with backbone do it.
    Bunch of quivering, entitled little nobodies right now
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    ydoethur said:

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    The really stupid thing is this *isn't* a snap election. There had to be an election within six months anyway and anyone sane would therefore have been fully prepared for one to be called at any moment.

    As Starmer and Davey clearly were. Not so much Swinney but we can forgive that given the circumstances.

    This is just pathetic incompetence by the whole party hierarchy. No wonder they're fighting to dodge blame like ferrets in a sack.
    That is one reason I do not believe all these reports of MPs who were certain they had 4-5 more months.

    Anyone with any contacts among MPs knows that even Cabinet Ministers have given wildly different predictions in private for the entirety of 2024 to date. Sure, like many people I assumed a July election was off the cards after not going in May, and so many MPs may have thought the same, but it was still just around the corner and they and the party had spent the first part of the year thinking it might be earlier, so they should have been prepared.

    So I totally get the anger of MPs who will be out of a job earlier than they hoped, but none should have been caught flat footed, everyone was already on a war footing.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,434

    The Tories pledge to remove ULEZ in London despite a Mayor being elected on it.

    This is kooky nonsense and completely anti-democratic.

    Obvious rejoinder: If this wasn't mad election bullshit then why didn't you use your large majority to do it before it was introduced?

    This is drivel.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    *Sunak in crisis*

    — CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
    — PM ‘despondent’
    — Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
    — they question his judgement, competence
    — strategy in tatters

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

    There is not a single voter in the country who needs a journalist to tell them this. There is not a single poster or lurker on PB who needed you to tell us this, so why did you post it?

    What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.

    Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.

    Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
    You've literately been ramping how well the Tories have been doing for weeks. You are a joke.
    Don’t be mean to @MoonRabbit - she is that rarest of things

    1 a female pb-er (um, I think)
    And
    2. Committed Tory (even rarer)

    Also might be under 50. We need these people
    My friend @CorrectHorseBattery got her back when she was banned.

    But she's made herself look a joke in recent weeks.
This discussion has been closed.