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London Falling. The Capital and the election – politicalbetting.com
London Falling. The Capital and the election – politicalbetting.com
Stodge gives his analysis on London
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Are you all Arts graduates?
On the other side, I'm particularly interested in this theory that the Tories will do particularly badly in the SouthWest. It's been variously Parliamentarian, Religious Non-Conformist, and then Liberal territory for hundreds of years, ofcourse. John Locke and. Glastonbury.
Is Rotherham a chance for Reform, with no Tory candidate?
I think Reform win two seats, Rotherham and Clacton.
No, I’m not getting on the spread bet mentioned yesterday (selling Reform seats at 4.5), which could go quite horribly wrong if the Tories implode in the next four weeks.
This is kooky nonsense and completely anti-democratic.
Could this story hurt the Conservative vote
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/08/south-west-water-seizes-stake-in-devon-sewage-protester-home-withheld-payments
Based on how the foreign owned water companies, who keep creaming dividends, are held in low esteem by customers/voters for the performance they are giving us? It makes the headline and story here (if true, this is the Guardian) give a whiff of the post office scandal?
The Tories have pledged to reverse the Ulez expansion and limit 20mph in Wales in a new law
Would the Tories like to have a go at defending this?
https://x.com/MickClearyTel/status/1799079023068508488
*Sunak in crisis*
— CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
— PM ‘despondent’
— Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
— they question his judgement, competence
— strategy in tatters
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924
— CCHQ now fears Reform poll crossover + Canada ‘93 wipeout
— PM ‘despondent’
— Cabinet ministers say snap election was catastrophic error
— they question his judgement, competence
— strategy in tatters
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924
IncorrectHorseBat is just trying to ‘out satirise’ the Tory campaign, and failing. You can’t out satirise this campaign.
In two minds about that one [Tory plan to scrap devolution of motoring legislation], as someone who doesn’t want to see personal freedom and economic growth strangled by an ideological anti-car agenda, but also believes in devolution of as many powers as possible to local authorities rather than central government.
She could turn herself into a sort of slightly more military Jacinda Ardern, appealing to the centre.
That aside, I presume the announcement is not actually about Wales but rather stirring the petrolheads of England up.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjllk8x353yo
There's a snippet, but - annoyingly - no information about the whole lot being broadcast.
In my part of the world the motorist lobby is a mixed bunch. Lib Dems, SNP white van types, most, but certainly not all, Conservatives.
However, I do wonder how much of the Change/Labour vote is actually keen enough to bother, especially as it looks a done and dusted deal. Change is all SKS and Labour offer, there no policy hook, no idealogical hook. I think the more it looks done, the more a lot peel away to 'meh' or George or Reform whereas the remaining Tories will just trudge along and vote Tory
Big gap elections always seem to be less so on the day
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgglge642ro
What do we think was the strategy? All built around the 2K Lie? Which Penny persisted with to ridicule and disbelief.
Once something like that falls apart so quickly, so cuts through not as a Labour tax rise but as a lie, each mention, billboard and advert is actually hurting the Conservative vote.
Calling a Snappy Lec without a strong campaign ready, without a strong strategy ready, is this the nub of what’s gone wrong - to the disbelief of Tory members and MPs?
People tell me Hot Cross Buns used to be a seasonal item as well, what a dark time that must have been.
The BBC, ITV and Wales Online are generally manned by PC supporters. They are very much not pro-Tory but their critique is of the Government in Cardiff, not Westminster which assists the Tories. Devolution in Wales is not popular, but it might end up being a case of Joni Mitchell's Big Yellow Taxi.
Iteration of 13 + x in my head via a^2 + 2ab + b^2 would take a minute.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/moment-tories-long-dreaded-finally-050000252.html
— but Cabinet has little sympathy and is turning on the PM
— a previously loyal minister says they now regret that the party didn’t oust him before the election
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1799352477030228076
Does he have no common sense? How did he see D-Day playing well?
That would be fairly crazy at this stage, ofcourse, but then again this has been a crazy election period overall, so anything can happen,
It's actually 13.235 to three places. Yes, as you can see you guessed correctly (as did I).
That's when the ship began sinking after Captain Boris crashed it into some rocks, then Truss drilled a whole in the bottom, Sunak patched it up with some emergency planks, but they've been taking on water constantly since, and about 3 weeks ago he decided to jump on the planks to reopen the hole.
I cannot imagine why you are so sore about Battery posting this?
This is what we used to do at Easter.
https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/recipes/cuddly-egg-men
She spent months pretending to be Labour, then Lib Dem, then she had a Damascene conversion to being a Tory and then spent the last two weeks telling us Rishi is actually good and the public will produce a Tory victory.
Her judgement is a joke and she's been found out. That's why she's going off on one.
I know Clegg didn't exactly end things in great circumstances, politically speaking, but it's on a different level of presiding over what might be a Canada 1993 scenario for the natural party of goverment.
As Starmer and Davey clearly were. Not so much Swinney but we can forgive that given the circumstances.
This is just pathetic incompetence by the whole party hierarchy. No wonder they're fighting to dodge blame like ferrets in a sack.
But I'll still take it
a) A moderately right wing stance, around the Leadsom/Geoffrey Cox marker - she's done herself in with the squelchy wokery, which is dating badly
b) Someone to do all the work for her. She's more of a front person it seems than a grafter. Which is fine - we've seen with Rishi where spreadsheets get you. We can't all be Thatcher, but you do need the right team around you.
Sadly, she doesn't.
Johnson should have gone after Hartlepool and he'd have won a landslide then. That was the peak and it's been downhill ever since.
Of course, the Tories were never truly popular but SKS for a while was doing terribly. So the Tories had room there to defeat him.
Updated forecast from New Statesman.
Lab 456
Con 86
LD 64
SNP 20
PC 3
Ref 1
Grn 1
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
I think there might be some from the Labour direction, sure, but that will be exceeded by despondent Tories staying at home, so the net effect will still be to their benefit.
I don't think Galloway's mob or Reform will eat into them significantly, again as compared to the impact on the Tories (at least for Reform).
ULEZ - highly effective. Will scare the crap out of poorer people in rural areas who depend on their cars and keep old bangers going for decades. People where I grew up are deeply worried about this kind of thing, and equate it with more radical policies like taxing per mile (which is IMO a stupid idea, the inverse of what we should be doing)
20mph - mixed. A large chunk of voters get really wound up by these. But always in a local minority, and in local politics this could cause real issues. Incumbency is really the only thing going for some Tory candidates, and if the perception is overturning a 20mph limit outside a primary school to please some Audi drivers... Tory to Reform switchers only I think.
LTNs - will appeal to the tin hatters (Reform again). That's about it - too complicated for most voters. Could be weaponised by Labour by working out the total cost of ripping out every LTN in the country - billions, considering all modern housing estates are LTNs.
At one point this hit Cons 1.5, Reform 3 (£100s offered), although it is now 1.4 / 3.5 and the market is thinner.
This would be the biggest electoral shock in about a century. Plenty of cash to be made.
1 a female pb-er (um, I think)
And
2. Committed Tory (even rarer)
Also might be under 50. We need these people
https://x.com/jayrayner1/status/1799358530354622595
Bunch of quivering, entitled little nobodies right now
Anyone with any contacts among MPs knows that even Cabinet Ministers have given wildly different predictions in private for the entirety of 2024 to date. Sure, like many people I assumed a July election was off the cards after not going in May, and so many MPs may have thought the same, but it was still just around the corner and they and the party had spent the first part of the year thinking it might be earlier, so they should have been prepared.
So I totally get the anger of MPs who will be out of a job earlier than they hoped, but none should have been caught flat footed, everyone was already on a war footing.
This is drivel.
But she's made herself look a joke in recent weeks.
It's definitely an advantage but it's worth about 1% (fair mix of seats).
Just pathetic stuff. At least Dorries and co made themselves clear before jumping ship.