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And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com
And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com
We’ve all forgotten (what with the excitement of Starmer v Sunak), but the US Presidential election continues… and on Betfair exchange, Trump has moved into a commanding lead.
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"I want to express my sincere thanks to everyone who sent me messages of support after the news I shared last night about my not being put forward as the Scottish Conservative & Unionist candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand.
It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis.
Needless to say I am very saddened by the way this whole episode has unfolded and it would be wrong of me to pretend otherwise. But the process to adopt Douglas Ross to replace me as the candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is now well underway.
For my part I would just like to say that it really has been an honour and privilege to serve you for the last 7 years."
Reform ahead of the Tories in the Midlands and the North!
LAB 43 (-4)
CON 23 (-1)
LD 9 (-2)
GRN 5 (+2)
RFM 15 (+7)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 3 (-1)
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
The @focaldataHQ polling puts Nigel Farage *one point* behind Rishi Sunak on who would make the best PM ... while for @RedfieldWilton Farage is preferred (albeit still in negative numbers)
2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
"They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
*Haven't checked his actual voting record, to be fair.
Misattributed to Mark Twain, but probably apposite here.
Subsequently a deal of humble pie was eaten.
People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.
The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.
That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.
Lab 44 (+1)
Con 25 (-1 )
Ref 14 (+2)
No other figs yet
But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.
LAB 42 CON 23 REF 16 LD 9
Reform totals are not outliers
🚨 NEW POLL 🚨
Farage effect has taken hold - Tories fall by 4pts and Reform rises by 5pts compared to last week, leaving Labour with a 19pt lead
@BMGResearch
findings - Lab 42% Con 23% Ref 16% LD 9% Grn 6%
But WARNING I have been wrong before!
https://x.com/HJoyceGender/status/1798752317141041227
Reform looking to be the home of the protest vote this election. Not the LibDems.
Greens holding up. Protest vote from Labour?
“Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”
I suspect 43% would make Starmer very happy.
Trump will be trying to stand in the way of an express train.
With that kind of movement surely next YouGov will be Crossover?
They can now properly decide as Members if they want to do something about it, to change the way the party operates. It would a long grind to have that happen. Or do they just kowtow?
https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1798754156959653998
Getting fired is fine.
Being dragged up to Scotland, and then having our brains picked, and then not being paid for it...
Well, put it like this, I thought it was pretty poor behaviour.
That Trump has succeeded in avoiding trial for seeking to overthrow an election or pressure election officials to change results is barmy, but is another reason he could win.
The Faragasm is real.
Four weeks till polling day - we’ve had a third of the campaign done, and that’s without being drowned out by the footy noise. Looking bleak for the Blues.
Hmm.
I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
I don't think it matters massively - if it means they end up at say 10, rather than start at 10 and get squeezed to 5, it's job done of Tory destruction.
The shift is less right / left, more the winners vs losers of globalisation. The losers have tried all the traditional parties / politicians, are pissed off and willing to kick over the apple cart. That's Trump, that's Brexit, maybe now Farage.
The 4% Labour seems odd, but I could believe there's a cohort of generically disaffected voters who've switched from "we're going to give those Tories a kicking by voting for the boring grey lawyer" to "we're going to give those Tories a kicking by voting for the affable geezer who likes a pint".
Labour are now on 45/105, Tories on 20/105 and Reform on 15/105 for shares of:
CON 19% (-1)
LAB 43% (-2)
RFM 14% (+4)
Not saying that's all that has happened, but it could be a large part of it.
Sorry. Sober cough, It’s wrong to laugh at the misf
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
*ejaculates*
And although I’m older than Biden I think I come across as a bit more on the ball.
My gut is that - like the last two elections- is that it's going to come down to a handful of states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
The polls show Michigan and Wisconsin as ties, but Trump leading in the others, albeit by very narrow margins. My gut says that Biden holds on in the rust belt, but loses in the sunshine States.
(None of my friends are into CBT so far as I know)
His ramblings are incoherent because he is making stuff up on the spot and bullshitting, also a lot of those rallies he is a bit like a comedian trying new material. He spews all sorts of shit and see what sticks i.e. get the crowd cheering. Then that gets filtered down into his greatest hits like lock her up.
Would they bother this time if the challenger is Farage? I think they’d be more likely to try and accentuate the surge rather than defeat it.
But there is no obvious successor. Harris is Vice President, but has the charisma of... well... something without charisma. She would certainly want her shot against Trump, but why would the Democrats dump Biden for her?
I would love to see Trump against Ossoff or Buttigieg: an articulate, "next generation" candidate. But I also also don't see any path for them win the Presidency to become the nominee.
So, unless Biden has a major health event, then I really don't see the path for an alternative candidate.