Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

Scott_xP said:

Casino_Royale said:

My guess: partygate doesn't happen, and neither does the Truss debacle, but something else that totemises the pain and loss of lockdown and the cost of living crisis does, and that leads to Labour being heavily behind by now too - just as Western governments have suffered from it across the world.

That's an interesting question, but it's even more interesting the other way round.

Without Covid, would the Tories still be as screwed as they are now?

Yes.

BoZo would still have defended Pincher

Truss would still have blown up

Richi would still be Richi

You being you you're probably not going to stop but this "Richi" thing is very very tiresome and makes you sound about 15-years old.

Just a gentle hint.

Bolton NE ex-MP "defects"

wooliedyed said:

Outgoing Bolton NE MP Mark Logan switches to Labour

I doubt even the voters of Bolton NE give a shit. about it.

Looks like it wasn't all the DWP being shit: the scammers were quite advanced:

"They also found a voice-changing microphone, which investigators assumed was used to change the fraudster’s voice whenever a benefits official would call to check the details on a claim.

On the top floor they found a bucket attached to a rope which they suspect was used to move phones between floors in a hurry, by dropping it through a window, to allow accomplices to pose as claimants on calls."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn330zkvnmyo

nico679 said:

DavidL said:

So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.

In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.

The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.

It’s either today or it will end up a hung jury . Trump only needs one cult member on the jury and he’s home free.

The pieces of testimony they asked to hear today go to the heart of the case and importantly do corroborate Cohens recollection of the meeting at Trump Tower .

So on the face of it not good news for Trump.

In Scotland there is a tradition that day 2 belongs to the Crown. If a Jury are not throwing out the case on day 1 it is unusual for them not to convict of something. But there does come a point when things drag on so much you are clearly in hung jury territory. Given the need for unanimity in NY it is probably too early to say that we are there yet.

bigjohnowls said:

Greens claiming to be ahead in Birkenhead by 2 points.

Could be LD ahead

Lib Dems winning here ! It was crap.last time too .

Sunak should be debating Tice, not Starmer. That would fit his strategy.

Alanbrooke said:

wooliedyed said:

Outgoing Bolton NE MP Mark Logan switches to Labour

I doubt even the voters of Bolton NE give a shit. about it.

He's gone for the full meek switch, a cotton wool defection

DavidL said:

nico679 said:

DavidL said:

So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.

In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.

The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.

It’s either today or it will end up a hung jury . Trump only needs one cult member on the jury and he’s home free.

The pieces of testimony they asked to hear today go to the heart of the case and importantly do corroborate Cohens recollection of the meeting at Trump Tower .

So on the face of it not good news for Trump.

In Scotland there is a tradition that day 2 belongs to the Crown. If a Jury are not throwing out the case on day 1 it is unusual for them not to convict of something. But there does come a point when things drag on so much you are clearly in hung jury territory. Given the need for unanimity in NY it is probably too early to say that we are there yet.

Unanimity? How do they send anyone down?

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

South Africa 2024 General Election
with 29.5% reporting = 3,578,070 counted

African National Congress 1,519,417 42.5%
Democratic Alliance 897,332 25.1%
Economic Freedom Fighters 320,888 9.0%
uMkhonto weSizwe 309,037 8.6%
Patriotic Alliance 135,134 3.8%
Inkatha Freedom Party 78,751 2.0%
Freedom Front Plus 65,575 1.8%
45 other parties combined 251,936 7.0%

Expect MK to get a higher vote, KwaZulu-Natal is still only 12% reported and that's where they are getting their vote. DA probably down a bit, Western Cape is 47% reported and even there mostly in good DA areas. ANC seems like they will land about where they are now. So who do they go into coalition with or do they try a minority government and try and get around 30 votes for anything to pass?

wooliedyed said:

Alanbrooke said:

wooliedyed said:

Outgoing Bolton NE MP Mark Logan switches to Labour

I doubt even the voters of Bolton NE give a shit. about it.

He's gone for the full meek switch, a cotton wool defection

just a politcal rentboy hoping to save his job.

biggles said:

DavidL said:

nico679 said:

DavidL said:

So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.

In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.

The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.

It’s either today or it will end up a hung jury . Trump only needs one cult member on the jury and he’s home free.

The pieces of testimony they asked to hear today go to the heart of the case and importantly do corroborate Cohens recollection of the meeting at Trump Tower .

So on the face of it not good news for Trump.

In Scotland there is a tradition that day 2 belongs to the Crown. If a Jury are not throwing out the case on day 1 it is unusual for them not to convict of something. But there does come a point when things drag on so much you are clearly in hung jury territory. Given the need for unanimity in NY it is probably too early to say that we are there yet.

Unanimity? How do they send anyone down?

They found for Carroll against Trump unanimously. Twice.

Both times it only took around three hours.

Pro_Rata said:

bondegezou said:

Scott_xP said:

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.

Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625

I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!

It is the last sentence, "it's probably at that time that you got to know me as chancellor" that is particularly bad here.

And prefaced with the words "in fact", meaning yeah sure, you've got your own take from within your own shitty little existence as a prole, but let me tell you how proper people like me look at things.

If you ignore Sunak's softly spoken delivery and his non-aggressive demeanour, and concentrate on the words he speaks, he could almost give Trump a run for his money with the narcissism.

And I doubt the guy he was speaking to owned a business. Many people don't.

ydoethur said:

nico679 said:

DavidL said:

So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.

In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.

The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.

It’s either today or it will end up a hung jury . Trump only needs one cult member on the jury and he’s home free.

Or he has a retrial. Don't forget that possibility.

With possibly a different and stricter judge...

I doubt they’d go for a re-trial . You’ll end up again with a hung jury . Trump is so polarizing that it’s hard to find a jury that can truly be unbiased .

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

nico679 said:

ydoethur said:

nico679 said:

DavidL said:

So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.

In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.

The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.

It’s either today or it will end up a hung jury . Trump only needs one cult member on the jury and he’s home free.

Or he has a retrial. Don't forget that possibility.

With possibly a different and stricter judge...

I doubt they’d go for a re-trial . You’ll end up again with a hung jury . Trump is so polarizing that it’s hard to find a jury that can truly be unbiased .

Hard but not impossible - hence why it only took a few days to select this time.

But it sounds like eve if they want to retrial it wouldn't be right away, so it's the last opportunity for a conviction ahead of the election.

Not that that will decide things, but it's still significant.

DavidL said:

So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.

In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.

The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.

Our juries cannot rehear evidence? So it's all on recollection of what might be months of a trial?

"Conservative Mark Logan defects to Labour - saying 'we need a new government'

Dan Poulter and Natalie Elphicke have also defected from the Conservatives to Labour recently, in a series of blows for Rishi Sunak."

https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-mark-logan-defects-to-labour-over-gaza-saying-we-need-a-new-government-13145494

Trump could appeal if he loses . It could finally end up at the SCOTUS . They don’t take too many criminal cases and normally it needs a constitutional angle to that .

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

ROFL.

what madness, Youre getting rid of an old banger ( deservedly ) but have absolutely no idea of what is going to replace it. For an accountant the whole concept of due diligence seems to have passed you by.

nico679 said:

Trump could appeal if he loses . It could finally end up at the SCOTUS . They don’t take too many criminal cases and normally it needs a constitutional angle to that .

How? This is a state crime. They have no jurisdiction.

They might potentially be asked to rule on the gagging order under the First Amendment but they can't interfere on the rest.

(And would they really rule, even for Trump, that anyone can say any lies whatsoever about any judge and any case? They are judges, after all.)

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

14 years of liberal Tories has made you forget just how illiberal and populist the Labour Party are in power.

Alanbrooke said:

Jamarion said:

Pro_Rata said:

bondegezou said:

Scott_xP said:

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.

Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625

I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!

It is the last sentence, "it's probably at that time that you got to know me as chancellor" that is particularly bad here.

And prefaced with the words "in fact", meaning yeah sure, you've got your own take from within your own shitty little existence as a prole, but let me tell you how proper people like me look at things.

If you ignore Sunak's softly spoken delivery and his non-aggressive demeanour, and concentrate on the words he speaks, he could almost give Trump a run for his money with the narcissism.

And I doubt the guy he was speaking to owned a business. Many people don't.

You forgot to mention helicopters and his short trousers.

Drainpipes!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

ROFL.

what madness, Youre getting rid of an old banger ( deservedly ) but have absolutely no idea of what is going to replace it. For an accountant the whole concept of due diligence seems to have passed you by.

What would you like to replace said banger?

A conservative government with actual conservative policies.

That's not on offer either.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

ROFL.

what madness, Youre getting rid of an old banger ( deservedly ) but have absolutely no idea of what is going to replace it. For an accountant the whole concept of due diligence seems to have passed you by.

What would you like to replace said banger?

Chaos. Anarchy. The cult of the Supreme Being. The cleansing fire of madness.

Apparently should be getting the Supreme Court decisions relating to presidential immunity shortly.

Given they scheduled oral arguments as late as they possibly could, I'm assuming they wanted to leave the written judgement until after the jury returned a verdict in this first trial if they could, so they might not quite manage that, but could still do so if things push on for a bit longer.

Given the nature of the court it seems likely whilst even they could not find Trump has full immunity for everything ever (although Alito and Thomas would probably provide a dissent that he could), they will either say some charges against him should be thrown out, or that there is a new test they think courts will need to apply - and rather than apply it to this case, send it back to the lower court.

That would mean that court could decide, and Trump could then appeal that interpretation all the way back to the top court, to remove even the slight chance of the DC case going to trial pre-election (it could not be before September anyway based on how long the judge said the sides would have left to prepare before the SC delayed it).

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

ROFL.

what madness, Youre getting rid of an old banger ( deservedly ) but have absolutely no idea of what is going to replace it. For an accountant the whole concept of due diligence seems to have passed you by.

What would you like to replace said banger?

Well, we got Sunak to replace a pair of old bangers.

Oh, not that sort of banging?

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

Casino_Royale said:

wooliedyed said:

Outgoing Bolton NE MP Mark Logan switches to Labour

Yuk. Traitorous pig-dog.

Half the 2019 Tories voters no longer support the 2024 Tories, of course there will be plenty of Tory MPs who feel the same, far more than go public with it.

Um, they are standing for parliament as a Conservative MP - that's quite a different matter from just voting for them. You need to demonstrate your alignment to the party, the cause and the values, and consistently so. Because electoral cycles and fortunes vary and that's the game. Your job is to support the troughs and leverage the highs.

I think all this focus on picking the right leader in opposition sort of misses the point. Yes, that has significant and people are hugely important but it’s the *pool* that's most important and candidate selection is where they should focus first.

Simply put: there's not enough good people of good calibre, who are sound and solid Conservatives, putting themselves forth as candidates atm. And that trickles through into everything else as the root cause.

And that logic is the same for the membership - the membership of British political parties is much lower now, which means there's a smaller pool of people to select candidates.

A healthy democracy is a participatory democracy, and not enough people participate in British politics - at all levels. Turnout is low, party membership is low, interest in local politics is low.

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

That was the genuine Richi on display.

Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.

Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.

'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'

'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'

'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'

Isn't that C&UP philosophy? 'Can't afford a house.' 'Wait for your mum and dad to die, we might even reduce the tax if you wait long enough!'

Not quite the same as most people have parents who own a home they will likely inherit at least part of.

Tory councils also tend to be more likely to build new homes than LD or Independent or Green led ones.

How does that work - looking at a labour council who in the last committee meeting alone approved 1400 new homes...

Since when were Labour the Nimby LDs, Independents or Greens?

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

…

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

South Africa 2024 General Election
with 29.5% reporting = 3,578,070 counted

African National Congress 1,519,417 42.5%
Democratic Alliance 897,332 25.1%
Economic Freedom Fighters 320,888 9.0%
uMkhonto weSizwe 309,037 8.6%
Patriotic Alliance 135,134 3.8%
Inkatha Freedom Party 78,751 2.0%
Freedom Front Plus 65,575 1.8%
45 other parties combined 251,936 7.0%

Coming to a General Election near you soon, Liz Truss’ “Economic Freedom Fighters”.

Although I like the party for people who are so drunk they can’t speak “uMkhonto weSizwe”. After the combined student and drunken gammon vote I guess.

Except EFF are borderline Marxists

I might not have been overly serious.

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

ROFL.

what madness, Youre getting rid of an old banger ( deservedly ) but have absolutely no idea of what is going to replace it. For an accountant the whole concept of due diligence seems to have passed you by.

How does the voter do due diligence? It's not an option for us.

numbertwelve said:

The problem with Sunak is he can’t actually do the emotional intelligence stuff. He’s been taught to talk like a politician, so he delivers his lines well, but he doesn’t go off piste, and he doesn’t connect with the questioner.

It’s all about delivering the question in the way that gets the political message over.

Too many politicians talk this way now because they’re coached to. The ones that are truly impressive manage to know when to switch it off and to, you know, connect.

Sunak’s response to that question was fine up to and including the bit where he said sorry. The next, emotionally intelligent thing to say would have been, “there’s nothing I can say that will make that better. I hope from some of the things I’ve said today, that I can demonstrate how I can be worthy of your trust.” End of conversation. Unfortunately we got the pre-prepared narrative about being SuperChancellor.

Reasons why Rishi Sunak is sh*t at politics #482.

Rory & AC discussed this in this morning's The Rest is Politics. Politicians are coached on what lines to say, but there is a danger, as seen with Rishi, that it does not seem to go through his brain. A contrast is drawn with teachers, who also repeat the same lines over and over, but varied and customised for the occasion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fq3f-58zukQ

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

Casino_Royale said:

wooliedyed said:

Outgoing Bolton NE MP Mark Logan switches to Labour

Yuk. Traitorous pig-dog.

Half the 2019 Tories voters no longer support the 2024 Tories, of course there will be plenty of Tory MPs who feel the same, far more than go public with it.

Um, they are standing for parliament as a Conservative MP - that's quite a different matter from just voting for them. You need to demonstrate your alignment to the party, the cause and the values, and consistently so. Because electoral cycles and fortunes vary and that's the game. Your job is to support the troughs and leverage the highs.

I think all this focus on picking the right leader in opposition sort of misses the point. Yes, that has significant and people are hugely important but it’s the *pool* that's most important and candidate selection is where they should focus first.

Simply put: there's not enough good people of good calibre, who are sound and solid Conservatives, putting themselves forth as candidates atm. And that trickles through into everything else as the root cause.

They need to work out what they stand for first. For some time now the party has had an identity crisis. Fundamentally, it needs to understand who it is trying to target and appeal to and it needs to recruit talent who share those beliefs. Since 2019 it’s been a weird chimera of all sorts of traits like Thatcherism, low tax, small state, levelling up, paternalism, culture war, interventionism, jingoism, populism… I have absolutely no idea how any Tory now can really have any clue what they’re supposed to believe in anymore.

HYUFD said:

Wonderful to see the Damascene overnight conversion to Labour by Mark Logan.

I am sure purely to do with Starmer's strength of leadership and his commitment to Labour policy now and nothing at all to do with the fact his Bolton NE seat is odds on to go Labour on current polls and he might now get the Labour nomination so he can stay the local MP with the salary and expenses perks!

He's hoping for another seat.
I hear Hackney is available.

HYUFD said:

Wonderful to see the Damascene overnight conversion to Labour by Mark Logan.

I am sure purely to do with Starmer's strength of leadership and his commitment to Labour policy now and nothing at all to do with the fact his Bolton NE seat is odds on to go Labour on current polls and he might now get the Labour nomination so he can stay the local MP with the salary and expenses perks!

Labour has already chosen a candidate, so no.

ydoethur said:

nico679 said:

Trump could appeal if he loses . It could finally end up at the SCOTUS . They don’t take too many criminal cases and normally it needs a constitutional angle to that .

How? This is a state crime. They have no jurisdiction.

They might potentially be asked to rule on the gagging order under the First Amendment but they can't interfere on the rest.

(And would they really rule, even for Trump, that anyone can say any lies whatsoever about any judge and any case? They are judges, after all.)

There are various other parts of the Bill of Rights or other issues his lawyers could, conceivably, at least TRY and get before the SC.

GIN1138 said:

I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.

The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.

Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.

Oh and good afternoon PB

He debates Starmer every week. He's shrill and awful and survives by virtue of S

Alanbrooke said:

SandyRentool said:

There is a thread of bitterness running through the Conservative contributors to PB.

Cheer up comrades; in just over a month's time you can start to enjoy yourselves slagging off the government.

true, Ive bought a huge store of popcorn.

Im waiting for the NHS reforms and the housebuilding.

Hope you haven't left anything in the oven.

Alanbrooke said:

wooliedyed said:

Alanbrooke said:

wooliedyed said:

Outgoing Bolton NE MP Mark Logan switches to Labour

I doubt even the voters of Bolton NE give a shit. about it.

He's gone for the full meek switch, a cotton wool defection

just a politcal rentboy hoping to save his job.

He’s not running again.
And said that he waited until Parliament was dissolved, since he was elected as a Conservative.

So you’re pretty well wrong all round.

The contrast between your and Casino’s immediate reaction is also (unintentionally) hilarious.

A Brexiteer, too, apparently.

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

Wonderful to see the Damascene overnight conversion to Labour by Mark Logan.

I am sure purely to do with Starmer's strength of leadership and his commitment to Labour policy now and nothing at all to do with the fact his Bolton NE seat is odds on to go Labour on current polls and he might now get the Labour nomination so he can stay the local MP with the salary and expenses perks!

He's hoping for another seat.
I hear Hackney is available.

If someone waited until this moment to switch I'd leave them hanging - they left it too late to help their new party with more than 5 decent minutes of coverage, so no reward.

I wonder if he, and maybe others, had been lined up to be slowly drip fed defections over the Summer months?
Then the announcement caught them on the hop?
He's then the Tory candidate. Does he fight BNE and lose? Or jump anyways? Tough call.

wooliedyed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

ROFL.

what madness, Youre getting rid of an old banger ( deservedly ) but have absolutely no idea of what is going to replace it. For an accountant the whole concept of due diligence seems to have passed you by.

What would you like to replace said banger?

Chaos. Anarchy. The cult of the Supreme Being. The cleansing fire of madness.

We've tried that, 2019-22.

It didn't go well.

DougSeal said:

ydoethur said:

nico679 said:

Trump could appeal if he loses . It could finally end up at the SCOTUS . They don’t take too many criminal cases and normally it needs a constitutional angle to that .

How? This is a state crime. They have no jurisdiction.

They might potentially be asked to rule on the gagging order under the First Amendment but they can't interfere on the rest.

(And would they really rule, even for Trump, that anyone can say any lies whatsoever about any judge and any case? They are judges, after all.)

There are various other parts of the Bill of Rights or other issues his lawyers could, conceivably, at least TRY and get before the SC.

I was wondering actually, and you would probably know the answer - would a retrial be in front of a different judge? Or does New York keep the same one?

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.

In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.

The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.

Our juries cannot rehear evidence? So it's all on recollection of what might be months of a trial?

NYT - Jury Resumes Deliberating After Rehearing Testimony

The 12 New Yorkers deciding the criminal case against Donald J. Trump reheard parts of the testimony by two witnesses and some of the judge’s instructions.

The 12 jurors deciding the criminal trial of former President Donald J. Trump are deliberating again after spending much of the morning rehearing testimony and some of the instructions the judge in the case had given them a day earlier. Court reporters recited the testimony, which had been given by Mr. Trump’s onetime fixer, Michael D. Cohen, who made the hush-money payment at the center of the case and a longtime tabloid publisher who was the first witness called. . . .

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

You do realise there are *certain technological advancements* which make your anticipated contentment completely delusional?

A............... I............. abolishes trousers??

Or is it more a Wallace & Gromit thing?

Far from being a household name, I suspect Mark Logan is not even known in his own household.
Still, he must be better than Natalie Elphicke.

boulay said:

ToryJim said:

Just catching up with the defection of Mark Logan. I hope he’s already cleared out his office as I suspect his former colleagues will probably want to lynch him if they bump into him.

I suspect that this campaign is going to age Rishi by about 25 years. He might not be the most capable politician but he doesn’t exactly deserve this.

I don’t think it will affect him too much - it’s not his one thing in life, it’s not the whole summation of his success or failure. When this goes tits up he’s still been Chancellor of the Exchequer, PM by mid forties, made millions in a career he was obviously successful at, married a billionairess, an amazing educational experience in different places and seems to have a happy marriage and lovely children. He has an incredible life ahead of him, more so than 99.999999999999999% of the world’s population and I think his tiggerish persona and desire to achieve will put it all in perspective.

If he was a politician whose existence had been Uni, Spad, MP, shadow Cabinet, government and then it fell apart on their watch and was all they knew then bitterness would follow but I think Rishi will be ok.

Just because he has other things in life doesn’t mean he’s not invested in this. He’s also human and this must be a nightmare. I know he signed up for it but nobody expects the hurricane of shite Rishi has to deal with.

Oh, I've just seen the pic of Ed Davey on a Frome water slide, I'm not sure I'll ever be able to unsee it.

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

wooliedyed said:

Alanbrooke said:

wooliedyed said:

Outgoing Bolton NE MP Mark Logan switches to Labour

I doubt even the voters of Bolton NE give a shit. about it.

He's gone for the full meek switch, a cotton wool defection

just a politcal rentboy hoping to save his job.

He’s not running again.
And said that he waited until Parliament was dissolved, since he was elected as a Conservative.

So you’re pretty well wrong all round.

The contrast between your and Casino’s immediate reaction is also (unintentionally) hilarious.

The man's from Ballymena he'll pop up somewhere else. English naivety never ceases to amaze.

NEVER!

Alanbrooke said:

PJH said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

kinabalu said:

nico679 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Starmer starting to look shifty

What do you mean starting to ! Lol

Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .

Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .

I'm not so underwhelmed. July 5th will be a great day because we’ll have a Labour government after all these years of the Conservatives. Yes, the policies, and we’ll see what they are in due course, once the election is over, however it’s mainly about the overall ambience of things when you have Labour in office rather than the Tories. It’s a 24/7 source of quiet contentment, a pleasant background hum, always there, bringing comfort on a bad day, a little extra spice to a good one. It isn’t something you think about often, that Labour’s in power, but this is the point, you don’t need to always be thinking about it because you kind of know that all is ok and in order. If a Tory government is like having a stone in your shoe, which it is, a Labour government is like wearing a well-cut pair of trousers. So this is what I can (figuratively) look forward to now. Several years, perhaps a decade or more, of walking around in a well-cut pair of trousers. If that's not a I don't know what is.

ROFL.

what madness, Youre getting rid of an old banger ( deservedly ) but have absolutely no idea of what is going to replace it. For an accountant the whole concept of due diligence seems to have passed you by.

What would you like to replace said banger?

A conservative government with actual conservative policies.

That's not on offer either.

I don't know. The Labour Party looks like a rather conservative party to me. You might be surprised.

It's not. It's big government, interfere in people's lives, spend money we havent got. Tories are the same.

Does anyone in the advanced western world have a coherent manifesto, covering all the essential ground, for a small government, non interfering, liberty loving, budget balancing, low spending way of running a large and complex country?

SandyRentool said:

There is a thread of bitterness running through the Conservative contributors to PB.

Cheer up comrades; in just over a month's time you can start to enjoy yourselves slagging off the government.

Conversely, (PB) life is about to get much less enjoyable for us lefties.