The Swinney slump doesn’t look like stopping – politicalbetting.com

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.

Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.

Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?

Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?

You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.

Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?

Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.

I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure

I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.

I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?

I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.

If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.

But hey, I am only one vote!

Gardenwalker said:

bondegezou said:

Gardenwalker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Gardenwalker said:

Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.

Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far.
Rachel Reeves has been more active.

All to play for.

Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?

I’m not convinced by this received wisdom.
The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.

And the polls haven't shifted.

I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.

Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.

But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.

No_Offence_Alan said:

Cicero said:

Taz said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Rugeley in Staffs is pronounced Rudge-lee for some reason, Houghton-Le-Spring is pronounced Horton-Le-Spring by locals of my acquantance. Bizarre.

Mildenhall, Suffolk is pronounced Mill-Den-Hall, Mildenhall, Wilts is Pronounced Mine-ul,

As noted elsewhere, many Scottish pronunciations are also a long way from their spellings: Garioch, as Gear-ee for example.

My sister's satnav pronounces Keighley as "Kee-ley", which is not how Eddie Waring pronounced it for the Rugby League.

CatMan said:

Election today in South Africa. ANC to lose their majority?

Eabhal said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.

Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.

https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/1791843173389467794?t=Uf0jCN3X3MBxcbQVmC65LQ&s=19

Benpointer said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Cherwell - Char-well. Locals say Cherwell, snobs say Charwell.

Andy_JS said:

"The New Luton Airport DART" - Geoff Marshall video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3eMyjyZ6Aw

bondegezou said:

“SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn has insisted his party can retain all of its Scottish seats at Westminster – and even win more.”

Ha ha ha ha ha

Nigel_Foremain said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TimS said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.

It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.

He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.

And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.

You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.

Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!

Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.

dixiedean said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.

The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.

I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.

Rule 34 applies.

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

That's the Irish pronunciation because of the 'hidden vowel rules.'

So you've just said Irish people are morons...

And Geordies.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Eabhal said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.

Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.

https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/1791843173389467794?t=Uf0jCN3X3MBxcbQVmC65LQ&s=19

Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go!
Anstruther pronounced Ainster.
Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar.
Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place.
* pronounced Weems.
** village cricket champions, 1985.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Carnyx said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Eabhal said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.

Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.

https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/1791843173389467794?t=Uf0jCN3X3MBxcbQVmC65LQ&s=19

Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go!
Anstruther pronounced Ainster.
Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar.
Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place.
* pronounced Weems.
** village cricket champions, 1985.

Very soft spot for Cupar myself.

Yes my parents just moved there! On the river Eden - was Fife perhaps the original paradise?

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.

Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.

Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?

Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?

You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.

Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?

Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.

I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure

I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.

I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?

I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.

If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.

But hey, I am only one vote!

You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all.
Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.

But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.

Andy_JS said:

Labour causing an unnecessary minor farce over the Diane Abbott situation. Tories will be pleased.

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Election today in South Africa. ANC to lose their majority?

Yes, assuming it's a fair and free election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election#Opinion_polls

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TimS said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.

It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.

He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.

And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.

You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.

Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!

Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.

The incredibly rare and definitely incurable Sir Ed Davy Derangement Syndrome (SEDDS).

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.

Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.

Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?

Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?

You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.

Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?

Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.

I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure

I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.

I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?

I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.

If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.

But hey, I am only one vote!

You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all.
Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.

But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.

wooliedyed said:

Wales enters the chat - MiC

🔴 Labour 45% (+4)
🔵 Conservatives 21% (-15)
🟢 Plaid 13% (+3)
🟣Reform 12% (NEW)
🟡 Lib Dem 4% (-2)
🟩Green 3% (+2)

stodge said:

Gardenwalker said:

bondegezou said:

Gardenwalker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Gardenwalker said:

Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.

Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far.
Rachel Reeves has been more active.

All to play for.

Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?

I’m not convinced by this received wisdom.
The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.

And the polls haven't shifted.

I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.

Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.

But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.

I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?

Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.

It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.

The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.

Taz said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TimS said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.

It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.

He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.

And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.

You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.

Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!

Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.

I have found PtP's commentary and insight on this to be not only very informative and fair but very non partisan too.

I think your characterisation is a little unfair.

Malmesbury said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Eabhal said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.

Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.

https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/1791843173389467794?t=Uf0jCN3X3MBxcbQVmC65LQ&s=19

Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go!
Anstruther pronounced Ainster.
Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar.
Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place.
* pronounced Weems.
** village cricket champions, 1985.

Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Taz said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Taz said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Rugeley in Staffs is pronounced Rudge-lee for some reason, Houghton-Le-Spring is pronounced Horton-Le-Spring by locals of my acquantance. Bizarre.

Any idea how the good people of Essex pronounce Ugley?

Ooglay ?

I think they put a Y in front of it, but I don't go to Essex much these days.

Cookie said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Eabhal said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.

Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.

https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/1791843173389467794?t=Uf0jCN3X3MBxcbQVmC65LQ&s=19

Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go!
Anstruther pronounced Ainster.
Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar.
Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place.
* pronounced Weems.
** village cricket champions, 1985.

https://www.scottishpoetrylibrary.org.uk/poem/boy-train/

Taz said:

Are we expecting a verdict in the case of the Trumpdozer today ?

eek said:

This morning's Donald Trump social media post

Donald J. Trump &
@realDonaldTrump
16m
KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND
CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON
COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT
ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS
RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD,
ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS
AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN
BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN
PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO
CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT
CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD
WE TRUST!

I think he expects to be found guilty....

kinabalu said:

Taz said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

kinabalu said:

CarlottaVance said:

My pet linguistic peeve is introducing management speak into everyday conversation…..to my horror I once found myself saying “Mother, that’s not actionable….”

I went through a very annoying phase of always asking somebody to quantify their opinion on whether (or not) something would happen, ie give it a probability.

My mum: "I think Aunt Edith is coming for Christmas."
Me: "You think?"
My mum: "Well I'm not sure but she should be."
Me: "More likely than not then, is what you actually mean."
My mum: "I suppose so, yes."
Me: "How likely though? 75% 90% Can we put a number on it?"

All very interesting, but did Aunt Edith come for Christmas or didn't she?

She did - and brought the usual bottle of Baileys.

My Mom's Auntie Edith used to visit us for Xmas, Warninks Advocaat was a tipple of hers.

Oh yes. Alcoholic custard. An acquired taste which I did for a time acquire.

eek said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TimS said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.

It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.

He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.

And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.

You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.

Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!

Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.

I love the idea that you think you could start a new job and within the first few weeks fully identify a full on disaster that everyone is doing their best to hide from your view especially when the only access you have is controlled by other people.

That's a fantasy which is why those who have spent a while looking at the Post Office Scandal know that Davey wasn't perfect but actually couldn't do much more than he did.

I also suspect that when it comes to his day in the inquest he won't have uniquely specific memory issues the way Vennells and others have

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Who is Baxter?

Theuniondivvie said:

Oh, do fuck off won’t you.
Presumably even the keenest Specciephiles would struggle to place Brendan O’Forehead in their pantheon of greats.

https://x.com/spectator/status/1795794961083838962?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ

Taz said:

Are we expecting a verdict in the case of the Trumpdozer today ?

TOPPING said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

DM_Andy said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MJW said:

noneoftheabove said:

Ghedebrav said:

Scott_xP said:

@Samfr

This morning's YouGov for people under 50 only:

Labour 59%
Greens 12%
Cons 8%
Reform 8%
LD 6%

That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.

Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.

Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.

Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.

The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.

Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.

As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.

So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.

Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.

There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.

I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)

So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.

Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.

Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.

Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?

Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?

You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.

Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?

Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.

I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure

I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.

I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?

I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.

If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.

But hey, I am only one vote!

You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all.
Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.

But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.

Thank you so much for explaining things about me that I didn't know. I'm tempted to take a shot at wildly guessing your motivations, but I generally leave such ignorant suppositions about others to the pompous and moronically stupid.

I don't hate anyone as it happens, and those with longer memories will remember I have been largely complimentary about Starmer, boring though he undoubtedly is, and that I was similarly concerned about a large majority under Johnson. The latter fears were well placed. There is no evidence to suggest that untrammelled power from the goons on the Labour benches will be any more benign than Johnson and his brigade of swivel-eyed loons..

Amazing to meet (so to speak) someone not totally unhinged - although you have your moments - who is actually going to go into the ballot box and vote for the Conservatives.

What a wazzock.

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

stodge said:

Gardenwalker said:

bondegezou said:

Gardenwalker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Gardenwalker said:

Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.

Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far.
Rachel Reeves has been more active.

All to play for.

Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?

I’m not convinced by this received wisdom.
The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.

And the polls haven't shifted.

I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.

Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.

But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.

I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?

Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.

It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.

The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.

I just think that as far as campaigning is going, and I refer to the “air war”, as I have no understanding of canvassing etc, the Tories are doing pretty well.

They are defining the narrative.

I expect to see a modest recovery in their polling from about the end of this week.

They may be defining the narrative but the response has been WTAF rather hmm that's a good idea...

Ok but they are not trying to appeal to you or me.

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

a

No_Offence_Alan said:

Malmesbury said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Eabhal said:

DM_Andy said:

Cookie said:

Ghedebrav said:

DM_Andy said:

wooliedyed said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A 27 point lead after the election was called?

That is extinction levels right there.

Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc

Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.

A votewinner for me.

People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.

Fil um instead of film. Morons
And people who say 'passed' instead of died

My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.

Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.

Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).

Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.

Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)

Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.

Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.

https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/1791843173389467794?t=Uf0jCN3X3MBxcbQVmC65LQ&s=19

Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go!
Anstruther pronounced Ainster.
Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar.
Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place.
* pronounced Weems.
** village cricket champions, 1985.

Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.

My favourite comedy Scottish placename is Gowkthrapple. It is not that far from Bonkle.

After Blackadder, Peebles is forever a comic name.

Obviously the scriptwriter had never been. Like Cupar, it's still a real town with some decent shops. And a very pleasant setting on the Tweed.

Nigel_Foremain said:

eek said:

This morning's Donald Trump social media post

Donald J. Trump &
@realDonaldTrump
16m
KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND
CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON
COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT
ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS
RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD,
ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS
AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN
BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN
PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO
CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT
CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD
WE TRUST!

I think he expects to be found guilty....

Does he have a problem with his caps lock do you think?

Nigel_Foremain said:

eek said:

This morning's Donald Trump social media post

Donald J. Trump &
@realDonaldTrump
16m
KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND
CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON
COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT
ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS
RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD,
ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS
AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN
BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN
PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO
CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT
CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD
WE TRUST!

I think he expects to be found guilty....

Does he have a problem with his caps lock do you think?

kle4 said:

On the issue of this being an epoch defining election, whilst the number of people standing down I am sure is higher than would have been the case had the Tories looked like winning, given the average time in parliament of those standing down in 2019 was around 18.5 years it is also the case that a large number of those standing down it is just a natural time for them to do so.

Of the 131 currently known to be standing down the average length of service is 17.1 years, so a bit less.

However, that hides that the average length of service for Labour MPs standing down is 21.9 years (thanks to some real veterans like Sheerman, Harman, and Hodge) and 16.2 years for the Tories. There are also only 30 Labour MPs versus over 70 Tories.

Those party averages do not include those currently without the whip.

The overall number being low is probably due to a large 2010 intake standing down, as well as a number of first termerss from the Red Wall and SNP MPs who were mostly elected in 2015.

Maybe we need more MPs who can sit it out through opposition as well as government, but with such long periods of both now it is hard.

(Clearly different people updated their wikipedia pages, as some state they were the MP from X-2024, others stating they will be standing down in 2024 - they are technically MPs until tomorrow)

Andy_JS said:

"The New Luton Airport DART" - Geoff Marshall video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3eMyjyZ6Aw

algarkirk said:

kle4 said:

On the issue of this being an epoch defining election, whilst the number of people standing down I am sure is higher than would have been the case had the Tories looked like winning, given the average time in parliament of those standing down in 2019 was around 18.5 years it is also the case that a large number of those standing down it is just a natural time for them to do so.

Of the 131 currently known to be standing down the average length of service is 17.1 years, so a bit less.

However, that hides that the average length of service for Labour MPs standing down is 21.9 years (thanks to some real veterans like Sheerman, Harman, and Hodge) and 16.2 years for the Tories. There are also only 30 Labour MPs versus over 70 Tories.

Those party averages do not include those currently without the whip.

The overall number being low is probably due to a large 2010 intake standing down, as well as a number of first termerss from the Red Wall and SNP MPs who were mostly elected in 2015.

Maybe we need more MPs who can sit it out through opposition as well as government, but with such long periods of both now it is hard.

(Clearly different people updated their wikipedia pages, as some state they were the MP from X-2024, others stating they will be standing down in 2024 - they are technically MPs until tomorrow)

A figure to speculate on is how many of the 2024 intake, totalling 650, will be returners. If the result is at the far end of the possibilities, there will be about 160 Labour, and possibly only 60/70 or so Tories, maybe 60 for PC/SNP/LDs. Leaving perhaps over 350 newbies.

Leon said:

Jesus tittyfucking Christ on a crouton what am I going to do in Moldova for EIGHT DAYS