Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

The Swinney slump doesn’t look like stopping – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
imageThe Swinney slump doesn’t look like stopping – politicalbetting.com

Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention:SNP 33% (-2)LAB 32% (+1)CON 17% (+1)LD 9% (+1)GRN 5% (nc)OTH 3% (-2)F/w 23rd – 27th May 2024. Changes vs. 25th January 2024. pic.twitter.com/cUouTBMAgP

Read the full story here

«13456789

Comments

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Swinney, Sunak, retreads whom people rejected before coming back for another go. Never ends well.

    Scotland is becoming politically rather interesting. Where would the major Labour pickups be? Edinburgh, Glasgow, the southern coal belt, perhaps. Anywhere else?
  • Options
    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,448
    second, Like RS in July
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472

    second, Like RS in July

    In Scotland?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited May 29
    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.

    I suppose north of the border Swinney could turn it round, or at least, with 45% backing Indy has a better chance too, but he's no campaigner and if he urges the SNP will stand up for Scotland better than Labour he immediately faces the question 'how come you haven't then?'
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Swinney has made an arse of himself over Mathieson and his £11k roaming bill. First he said he was going to oppose the Disciplinary Committees recommendations and then he found (amazing that this still comes as a surprise to the SNP) he was going to lose anyway so he is now backing them with an amendment moaning about how unfair it is. So morally indefensible and weak. Its not a good look.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited May 29
    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    But they are both low level.

    How many people will actually change their vote based on Diane Abbott being given the whip back and barred from standing at the same time?

    Perhaps they should. It raises concerns about Starmer's management skills. Just as Williamson and Zahawi should have been the reddest of red flags about Sunak. But they won't.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    What I would caution people tempted by the spreads to think about is the ever increasing disparity between those who will vote SNP and those that support independence. Although a minority, the latter figure shows that there is a significant pool of potential supporters for the SNP who are disillusioned with the party's lack of progress to the promised land. I am not saying that the campaign will cause some of these indy supporters to climb back on board but the potential is there.

    Caveat venditor.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,653
    DavidL said:

    Swinney has made an arse of himself over Mathieson and his £11k roaming bill. First he said he was going to oppose the Disciplinary Committees recommendations and then he found (amazing that this still comes as a surprise to the SNP) he was going to lose anyway so he is now backing them with an amendment moaning about how unfair it is. So morally indefensible and weak. Its not a good look.

    It's unbelievably daft, particularly having seen what happened with Johnson and Paterson fairly recently. A needless, self-inflicted wound.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    I fear they'll suffer from bad korma.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    The Matheson thing is one of the most bizarre and avoidable-at-multiple-points scandals I can recall in politics.

    The closest thing I can recall is when Red Ken had that mad phase when he couldn’t finish a sentence without “anyway, Hitler…”.

    The parcel of rogues is protean and immortal; I’m moderately unionist but I do feel for the Nats who are so grievously let down by their politicians.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:



    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.

    The VAT on bourgeois turd factories is smart politics from SKS. It's a red meat policy to motivate his base to get out and wage the ground war in the GE campaign. It doesn't, on a cursory examination, cost a shit load of money and doesn't turn off floating voters. Policies like that are gold dust.
    The fox hunting de nos jours.

    Blair managed to keep that going for the best part of a decade.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    DavidL said:

    What I would caution people tempted by the spreads to think about is the ever increasing disparity between those who will vote SNP and those that support independence. Although a minority, the latter figure shows that there is a significant pool of potential supporters for the SNP who are disillusioned with the party's lack of progress to the promised land. I am not saying that the campaign will cause some of these indy supporters to climb back on board but the potential is there.

    Caveat venditor.

    One thing I plan on covering is how many candidates the Greens and Alba put up, the SNP could face the vote split problems Unionists have with FPTP.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.

    I suppose north of the border Swinney could turn it round, or at least, with 45% backing Indy has a better chance too, but he's no campaigner and if he urges the SNP will stand up for Scotland better than Labour he immediately faces the question 'how come you haven't then?'
    Dura nails the VAT on schools: red meat to the core vote, doesn't cost money, doesn't affect 93% of the electorate. You may think it's silly but in election terms it really isn't.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    Top tip for political parties: don't pick a leader whose surname starts with 'Swin' :wink:
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    edited May 29
    Ghedebrav said:

    The Matheson thing is one of the most bizarre and avoidable-at-multiple-points scandals I can recall in politics.

    The closest thing I can recall is when Red Ken had that mad phase when he couldn’t finish a sentence without “anyway, Hitler…”.

    The parcel of rogues is protean and immortal; I’m moderately unionist but I do feel for the Nats who are so grievously let down by their politicians.

    The thing that genuinely shocked me was he publicly threw his kids under the bus, without wanting to go full Andrea Leadsom, as a father etc...

    Oh and when he did that I don't think he quite realised the GDPR/DPA issues it would cause.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    DavidL said:

    What I would caution people tempted by the spreads to think about is the ever increasing disparity between those who will vote SNP and those that support independence. Although a minority, the latter figure shows that there is a significant pool of potential supporters for the SNP who are disillusioned with the party's lack of progress to the promised land. I am not saying that the campaign will cause some of these indy supporters to climb back on board but the potential is there.

    Caveat venditor.

    One thing I plan on covering is how many candidates the Greens and Alba put up, the SNP could face the vote split problems Unionists have with FPTP.
    That may add to their problems but the Greens are weaker than they appear at Holyrood because they got a significant lift from being an alternative independence party (something they seem to have given up on) available for the list vote. I am doubtful many SNP supporters will be giving them that kind of boost again. Plus they are a bunch of incompetent nutters, of course.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    Taken, as Hodges has noted, after the Great National Service Announcement.

    LOL.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,666
    Off-topic: progress on something I've wittered on about for years: transmutation of nuclear 'waste'

    "According to the Swiss national body, Transmutex’s technology could help reduce the volume of nuclear waste generated by 80 percent and reduce the time it remains radioactive to less than 500 years. More importantly, the technology could also be applied to 99 percent of existing nuclear waste."

    https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/nuclear-waste-reduction-tech

    “If it can be demonstrated to work, you basically get the best of both worlds,” said Jack Henderson, chair of the nuclear physics group at the UK’s Institute of Physics and a researcher at the University of Surrey. “You are able to reduce the level of radioactivity produced by burning up some of the longer-lived isotopes produced in your reactor — and you get energy out at the same time.”"

    https://www.ft.com/content/286490fd-9181-4c94-8444-a5a19621bbe6
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,666
    Pro-Hamas fuckwits at it again:

    "BREAKING: Palestine Action cut Leonardo’s Edinburgh factory’s internet cables, disrupting the producers of targeting systems for Israel’s F-35 fighter jets."

    https://x.com/Pal_action/status/1795437306893193325
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,126

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    Taken, as Hodges has noted, after the Great National Service Announcement.

    LOL.
    YouGov also polled the NS announcement.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    Taken, as Hodges has noted, after the Great National Service Announcement.

    LOL.
    Loved this twitter comment:

    Kier Starmer will never recover from this. Any other leader would be 28% ahead

    https://x.com/jaymurphs11/status/1795700651558924312
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,503
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.

    You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.

    Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
    Lassi if some of the mudslinging stops now.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
    These curry puns are all an epic phaal.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    Ghedebrav said:

    The Matheson thing is one of the most bizarre and avoidable-at-multiple-points scandals I can recall in politics.

    The closest thing I can recall is when Red Ken had that mad phase when he couldn’t finish a sentence without “anyway, Hitler…”.

    The parcel of rogues is protean and immortal; I’m moderately unionist but I do feel for the Nats who are so grievously let down by their politicians.

    The thing that genuinely shocked me was he publicly threw his kids under the bus, without wanting to full Andrea Leadsom, as a father etc...

    Oh and when he did that I don't think he quite realised the GDPR/DPA issues it would cause.
    It’s almost a masterclass in self-destruction. How to take a minor infraction that could be resolved simply and become tomorrow’s chip-wrapper; sustain and nourish it to the point where it genuinely will cost your party multiple seats and set back your cause by a decade.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    I mentioned it last night, one of the stories I heard was that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
    Speaking of dahlings of the left, where was the voice of reason in Starmer's ear saying "dhansak Abbott, she's suffered enough"?
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 893

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    1 week down of the campaign and no signs of swingback yet (looking at the polls in aggregate). And it's been a week where the Tories have dominated the news with policy announcements.

    5 weeks left to go for the swingback theory to come true...

    What will they throw at the wall next?
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
    These curry puns are all an epic phaal.
    And yet there is no chapatit more than you.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    I mentioned it last night, one of the stories I heard was that she refused to give assurances that she wouldn't campaign for Jeremy Corbyn.
    Given the way she performed in 2017, that was an even worse mis-step by Starmer. He should have been on his knees begging her to campaign for Corbyn.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993
    Ghedebrav said:

    The Matheson thing is one of the most bizarre and avoidable-at-multiple-points scandals I can recall in politics.

    The closest thing I can recall is when Red Ken had that mad phase when he couldn’t finish a sentence without “anyway, Hitler…”.

    The parcel of rogues is protean and immortal; I’m moderately unionist but I do feel for the Nats who are so grievously let down by their politicians.

    1. Dumb MSP doesn't understand what public property is. Do not use work devices for non-work.
    2. Dumb MSP doesn't understand how WIFI works. Or what roaming charges are
    3. Public contract for cellular WIFI appears not to have a hard stop point on roaming charges. Seriously? Who negotiates these things?
    4. MSP runs up £11k bill watching the footy with his kids
    5. SNP decides that any public outrage on this incident is a public outrage
    6. Replacement replacement SNP Leader and FM forgets he doesn't have a majority and declares that all patriotic Scots will repel the English smear that £11k to watch the fitba isn't a good use of public money
    7. Parliament says "naw"
    8. Whoops Apocalypse. "Austerity, Brexit and the Cost of Living" says the SNP alternative back-up leader. How does burning £11k of our money work for you mate?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    MJW said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.

    You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.

    Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
    I don't think getting rid of Abbott will hurt Labour. Indeed it is further evidence that the party is under new management. Her sharpness has gone, and she seems quite unhealthy. Time to exit stage left.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864

    DavidL said:

    What I would caution people tempted by the spreads to think about is the ever increasing disparity between those who will vote SNP and those that support independence. Although a minority, the latter figure shows that there is a significant pool of potential supporters for the SNP who are disillusioned with the party's lack of progress to the promised land. I am not saying that the campaign will cause some of these indy supporters to climb back on board but the potential is there.

    Caveat venditor.

    One thing I plan on covering is how many candidates the Greens and Alba put up, the SNP could face the vote split problems Unionists have with FPTP.
    I really can't see it - in fact I'm hard pushed to think of any constituency in Scotland where Alba or the Greens would hit 5%...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
    These curry puns are all an epic phaal.
    And yet there is no chapatit more than you.
    I just felt I had to pop a dumb one in there.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,653
    ydoethur said:

    Swinney, Sunak, retreads whom people rejected before coming back for another go. Never ends well.

    Scotland is becoming politically rather interesting. Where would the major Labour pickups be? Edinburgh, Glasgow, the southern coal belt, perhaps. Anywhere else?

    The central belt basically is Scotland in electoral terms. For us political nerds, poring over the maps, the eye is drawn to the huge rural seats to the north, and pretty big ones on the borders. But they aren't worth extra - the numbers are in the central belt.

    The SNP has moved to shore itself up in NE with oil policy, and will hope that the Tories are unpopular enough that its foray into gender matters won't totally destroy its Tartan Tory appeal in the north. But it isn't where the numbers are.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Every time I feel a twinge of sympathy for her, I remember her letter to the Observer. Starmer has shown he's a tough and determined manager, nowt wrong with that imo.

    It seems it's the natural Tories and the extreme-lefties on here who think she's been hard done by. Odd bedfellows.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,249
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Pesto, but even so...

    Diane Abbott received a private letter from the Labour Chief Whip yesterday telling her that she was back in the parliamentary party, as AnushkaAsthana revealed. Abbott believed that would be the precursor to her own announcement that she would be retiring, to be accompanied by a flurry of tributes for her service from Starmer and others. That elegant departure had been under negotiation for weeks I am told - which is why she felt badly let down when the Times was briefed that she had been banned from running in this election. All she wanted, I understand, was the dignity of being able to say she was choosing to stand down. This looks like a mess that could have been avoided.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795717746203771378

    "Self-important campaign aide blabbing unhelpfully" is always pretty plausible. Someone might be about to get a very long leaflet round to do.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Pesto, but even so...

    Diane Abbott received a private letter from the Labour Chief Whip yesterday telling her that she was back in the parliamentary party, as AnushkaAsthana revealed. Abbott believed that would be the precursor to her own announcement that she would be retiring, to be accompanied by a flurry of tributes for her service from Starmer and others. That elegant departure had been under negotiation for weeks I am told - which is why she felt badly let down when the Times was briefed that she had been banned from running in this election. All she wanted, I understand, was the dignity of being able to say she was choosing to stand down. This looks like a mess that could have been avoided.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795717746203771378

    "Self-important campaign aide blabbing unhelpfully" is always pretty plausible. Someone might be about to get a very long leaflet round to do.
    It was a dignified retirement that someone has now completely screwed up for a bit of point scoring I think...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited May 29

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Every time I feel a twinge of sympathy for her, I remember her letter to the Observer. Starmer has shown he's a tough and determined manager, nowt wrong with that imo.

    It seems it's the natural Tories and the extreme-lefties on here who think she's been hard done by. Odd bedfellows.
    I'm not, actually, bothered about her being hard done by as such. She's managed to look after herself for 40 years, I'm sure she can continue to do so.

    I'm more concerned at the confused message he's sending, if only because it seems to have pissed off absolutely everyone. If he'd let her quietly rejoin to retire, or expelled her and banned her, then at least one side would have been happy.

    Doesn't say much for his judgement.

    Edit - although in light of Stuart's post it seems Starmer may have been trying for option A when somebody sabotaged it. So I may be being unfair to him.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited May 29
    Ratters said:

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    1 week down of the campaign and no signs of swingback yet (looking at the polls in aggregate). And it's been a week where the Tories have dominated the news with policy announcements.

    5 weeks left to go for the swingback theory to come true...

    What will they throw at the wall next?
    That's it! Build a Wall along the south coast! Penzance to Margate, 6 meters 20 feet high.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Every time I feel a twinge of sympathy for her, I remember her letter to the Observer. Starmer has shown he's a tough and determined manager, nowt wrong with that imo.

    It seems it's the natural Tories and the extreme-lefties on here who think she's been hard done by. Odd bedfellows.
    Um, I'm neither - centre left. But if you want someone to disappear quietly give them the dignity to do so - and as I said before she is 70 years old, ill but lives in London. A peerage wouldn't do any harm as a thanks for the hardwork and is now probably unavoidable...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited May 29
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Every time I feel a twinge of sympathy for her, I remember her letter to the Observer. Starmer has shown he's a tough and determined manager, nowt wrong with that imo.

    It seems it's the natural Tories and the extreme-lefties on here who think she's been hard done by. Odd bedfellows.
    I'm not, actually, bothered about her being hard done by as such. She's managed to look after herself for 40 years, I'm sure she can continue to do so.

    I'm more concerned at the confused message he's sending, if only because it seems to have pissed off absolutely everyone. If he'd let her quietly rejoin to retire, or expelled her and banned her, then at least one side would have been happy.

    Doesn't say much for his judgement.

    Edit - although in light of Stuart's post it seems Starmer may have been trying for option A when somebody sabotaged it. So I may be being unfair to him.
    I am sure he would have been happy to let her rejoin to retire, indeed isn't that what she's got? Unfortunately he can't force her to so so quietly.

    Edit: just seen your edit. That's the way it seems to me.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    edited May 29
    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.

    You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.

    Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
    I don't think getting rid of Abbott will hurt Labour. Indeed it is further evidence that the party is under new management. Her sharpness has gone, and she seems quite unhealthy. Time to exit stage left.
    The contrast between Abbott and Elphicke is a Labour Party incongruity. Nonetheless Abbott still retains the propensity to say something utterly mad and offensive. Although she does seem to have won the hearts and minds of the PB Tories.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Every time I feel a twinge of sympathy for her, I remember her letter to the Observer. Starmer has shown he's a tough and determined manager, nowt wrong with that imo.

    It seems it's the natural Tories and the extreme-lefties on here who think she's been hard done by. Odd bedfellows.
    I'm not, actually, bothered about her being hard done by as such. She's managed to look after herself for 40 years, I'm sure she can continue to do so.

    I'm more concerned at the confused message he's sending, if only because it seems to have pissed off absolutely everyone. If he'd let her quietly rejoin to retire, or expelled her and banned her, then at least one side would have been happy.

    Doesn't say much for his judgement.

    Edit - although in light of Stuart's post it seems Starmer may have been trying for option A when somebody sabotaged it. So I may be being unfair to him.
    I am sure he would have been happy to let her rejoin to retire, indeed isn't that what she's got? Unfortunately he can't force her to so so quietly.

    Edit: just seen your edit. That's the way it seems to me.
    It's come out more Shaheen Shah Afridi though.

    (This was farcical, if nobody has seen it:
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/pcb-and-shaheen-afridi-hold-crisis-talks-after-statement-furore-1427275 )
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    edited May 29

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Every time I feel a twinge of sympathy for her, I remember her letter to the Observer. Starmer has shown he's a tough and determined manager, nowt wrong with that imo.

    It seems it's the natural Tories and the extreme-lefties on here who think she's been hard done by. Odd bedfellows.
    After the Frank Hester comments it should have been an easy win for Starmer
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,126
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Pesto, but even so...

    Diane Abbott received a private letter from the Labour Chief Whip yesterday telling her that she was back in the parliamentary party, as AnushkaAsthana revealed. Abbott believed that would be the precursor to her own announcement that she would be retiring, to be accompanied by a flurry of tributes for her service from Starmer and others. That elegant departure had been under negotiation for weeks I am told - which is why she felt badly let down when the Times was briefed that she had been banned from running in this election. All she wanted, I understand, was the dignity of being able to say she was choosing to stand down. This looks like a mess that could have been avoided.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795717746203771378

    "Self-important campaign aide blabbing unhelpfully" is always pretty plausible. Someone might be about to get a very long leaflet round to do.
    It was a dignified retirement that someone has now completely screwed up for a bit of point scoring I think...
    And she has confirmed she wss barred from standing again, so any attempt to gloss over that with 'oh but shes retiring, we would have let her, honest.' Is blown.
    YouGov will cheer up the Labour team though, and im sure they wont make the mistake of over interpreting one poll just as they warned last night!
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    Pro-Hamas fuckwits at it again:

    "BREAKING: Palestine Action cut Leonardo’s Edinburgh factory’s internet cables, disrupting the producers of targeting systems for Israel’s F-35 fighter jets."

    https://x.com/Pal_action/status/1795437306893193325

    The fact that Leonardo's ethernet cables are so easily accessed by a bunch of soy milk powered wokesters is serious cause for concern.

    Though being located so close to the Muirhouse/Pilton/Granton stink pit* does not suggest they are that bothered about security.

    *I might be moving there shortly
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    SQ turbulence initial report:

    d. At 07:49:40 hr, the aircraft experienced a rapid change in G as recorded vertical acceleration decreased from +ve 1.35G to negative (-ve) 1.5G, within 0.6 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were not belted up to become airborne.

    e. At 07:49:41 hr, the vertical acceleration changed from -ve 1.5G to +ve 1.5G within 4 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.

    f. The rapid changes in G over the 4.6 sec duration resulted in an altitude drop of 178 ft, from 37,362 ft to 37,184 ft. This sequence of events likely caused the injuries to the crew and passengers


    https://www.mot.gov.sg/news/press-releases/Details/transport-safety-investigation-bureau-preliminary-investigation-findings-of-incident-involving-sq321
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Diane Abbott confirms she’s barred from running.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1795712956883140690?s=46
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    Those who give Sam Freedman money for his views will have a very interesting read in their mailbox.

    I won't give the full details away (pay for quality research / opinions if the person wants to be paid for their opinion) but he repeats that the Labour vote is efficient - the Green / workers party votes are coming from seats where Labour has a big enough majority that the lost votes don't really matter that much.

  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    edited May 29

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    Taken, as Hodges has noted, after the Great National Service Announcement.

    LOL.
    YouGov also polled the NS announcement.
    And I think illustrates nicely the difference between what folk think of ‘national service in principle’ vs ‘national service proposed by Rishi Sunak’.

    In the interests of balance, I’m quite in favour of reducing university attendance and increasing apprenticeships, though I would fully expect Rishi to somehow make an absolute bollix of delivering it.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Pesto, but even so...

    Diane Abbott received a private letter from the Labour Chief Whip yesterday telling her that she was back in the parliamentary party, as AnushkaAsthana revealed. Abbott believed that would be the precursor to her own announcement that she would be retiring, to be accompanied by a flurry of tributes for her service from Starmer and others. That elegant departure had been under negotiation for weeks I am told - which is why she felt badly let down when the Times was briefed that she had been banned from running in this election. All she wanted, I understand, was the dignity of being able to say she was choosing to stand down. This looks like a mess that could have been avoided.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795717746203771378

    "Self-important campaign aide blabbing unhelpfully" is always pretty plausible. Someone might be about to get a very long leaflet round to do.
    It was a dignified retirement that someone has now completely screwed up for a bit of point scoring I think...
    And she has confirmed she wss barred from standing again, so any attempt to gloss over that with 'oh but shes retiring, we would have let her, honest.' Is blown.
    YouGov will cheer up the Labour team though, and im sure they wont make the mistake of over interpreting one poll just as they warned last night!
    No, they will also take the R&W and Survation polls into account ;-)
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,073
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
    These curry puns are all an epic phaal.
    And yet there is no chapatit more than you.
    These puns look likely to last all morning until the Tories unveil another policy to win the votes of bhunas.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    ToryJim said:

    Diane Abbott confirms she’s barred from running.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1795712956883140690?s=46

    The Tories are still short of candidates. You are welcome to her.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    Eabhal said:

    Pro-Hamas fuckwits at it again:

    "BREAKING: Palestine Action cut Leonardo’s Edinburgh factory’s internet cables, disrupting the producers of targeting systems for Israel’s F-35 fighter jets."

    https://x.com/Pal_action/status/1795437306893193325

    The fact that Leonardo's ethernet cables are so easily accessed by a bunch of soy milk powered wokesters is serious cause for concern.

    Though being located so close to the Muirhouse/Pilton/Granton stink pit* does not suggest they are that bothered about security.

    *I might be moving there shortly
    You'll need a new accessory for your bike:

    https://www.bombercommandmuseum.ca/bomber-command/gun-turrets/
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    ToryJim said:

    Diane Abbott confirms she’s barred from running.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1795712956883140690?s=46

    The Tories are still short of candidates. You are welcome to her.
    Tbf she seems to have a lot of support from PB Tories.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,126
    https://x.com/drjennings/status/1795591274386591830?t=xNUy9HtsUqrebTobrrs0YQ&s=19

    A valid point, but misses the fact that nowacasters like todays YouGov are telling us how a GE would go if the DKs dont vote. Both methodologues are thus susceptible to inaccuracy
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. Angela Rayner has been cleared. Presumably the PBers who tossed on about this for days will now go back to their constituencies and prepare for curry?

    It'll tikka while for them to get over this.
    Even though naan of the charges stuck.

    She remains the dahl-ing of the party membership.
    These curry puns are all an epic phaal.
    And yet there is no chapatit more than you.
    These puns look likely to last all morning until the Tories unveil another policy to win the votes of bhunas.
    With some more saag in the polls.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864

    SQ turbulence initial report:

    d. At 07:49:40 hr, the aircraft experienced a rapid change in G as recorded vertical acceleration decreased from +ve 1.35G to negative (-ve) 1.5G, within 0.6 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were not belted up to become airborne.

    e. At 07:49:41 hr, the vertical acceleration changed from -ve 1.5G to +ve 1.5G within 4 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.

    f. The rapid changes in G over the 4.6 sec duration resulted in an altitude drop of 178 ft, from 37,362 ft to 37,184 ft. This sequence of events likely caused the injuries to the crew and passengers


    https://www.mot.gov.sg/news/press-releases/Details/transport-safety-investigation-bureau-preliminary-investigation-findings-of-incident-involving-sq321

    Always wear your seatbelt when not moving round the plane...
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Every time I feel a twinge of sympathy for her, I remember her letter to the Observer. Starmer has shown he's a tough and determined manager, nowt wrong with that imo.

    It seems it's the natural Tories and the extreme-lefties on here who think she's been hard done by. Odd bedfellows.
    Um, I'm neither - centre left. But if you want someone to disappear quietly give them the dignity to do so - and as I said before she is 70 years old, ill but lives in London. A peerage wouldn't do any harm as a thanks for the hardwork and is now probably unavoidable...
    I don't know the lady, but what are her views on the HoL? It could be about as tactful as offering a peerage to a SNP activist.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,223

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,126

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Pesto, but even so...

    Diane Abbott received a private letter from the Labour Chief Whip yesterday telling her that she was back in the parliamentary party, as AnushkaAsthana revealed. Abbott believed that would be the precursor to her own announcement that she would be retiring, to be accompanied by a flurry of tributes for her service from Starmer and others. That elegant departure had been under negotiation for weeks I am told - which is why she felt badly let down when the Times was briefed that she had been banned from running in this election. All she wanted, I understand, was the dignity of being able to say she was choosing to stand down. This looks like a mess that could have been avoided.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795717746203771378

    "Self-important campaign aide blabbing unhelpfully" is always pretty plausible. Someone might be about to get a very long leaflet round to do.
    It was a dignified retirement that someone has now completely screwed up for a bit of point scoring I think...
    And she has confirmed she wss barred from standing again, so any attempt to gloss over that with 'oh but shes retiring, we would have let her, honest.' Is blown.
    YouGov will cheer up the Labour team though, and im sure they wont make the mistake of over interpreting one poll just as they warned last night!
    No, they will also take the R&W and Survation polls into account ;-)
    Until the next set, and then we need to see which way they trend before concluding their reliability. The fun of a campaign
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    ToryJim said:

    Diane Abbott confirms she’s barred from running.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1795712956883140690?s=46

    The Tories are still short of candidates. You are welcome to her.
    Hmm not sure they would want her.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited May 29

    SQ turbulence initial report:

    d. At 07:49:40 hr, the aircraft experienced a rapid change in G as recorded vertical acceleration decreased from +ve 1.35G to negative (-ve) 1.5G, within 0.6 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were not belted up to become airborne.

    e. At 07:49:41 hr, the vertical acceleration changed from -ve 1.5G to +ve 1.5G within 4 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.

    f. The rapid changes in G over the 4.6 sec duration resulted in an altitude drop of 178 ft, from 37,362 ft to 37,184 ft. This sequence of events likely caused the injuries to the crew and passengers


    https://www.mot.gov.sg/news/press-releases/Details/transport-safety-investigation-bureau-preliminary-investigation-findings-of-incident-involving-sq321

    No shit Sherlock - these air incident investigators don't miss a trick, do they?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
    Pesto, but even so...

    Diane Abbott received a private letter from the Labour Chief Whip yesterday telling her that she was back in the parliamentary party, as AnushkaAsthana revealed. Abbott believed that would be the precursor to her own announcement that she would be retiring, to be accompanied by a flurry of tributes for her service from Starmer and others. That elegant departure had been under negotiation for weeks I am told - which is why she felt badly let down when the Times was briefed that she had been banned from running in this election. All she wanted, I understand, was the dignity of being able to say she was choosing to stand down. This looks like a mess that could have been avoided.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795717746203771378

    "Self-important campaign aide blabbing unhelpfully" is always pretty plausible. Someone might be about to get a very long leaflet round to do.
    It was a dignified retirement that someone has now completely screwed up for a bit of point scoring I think...
    I would never put Abbott and "dignified" on the same page, never mind in the same sentence.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
    Why?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    I have a question. In Hitchin, there are two serving MPs running for election. I assume that has happened before, but I can't seem to find any articles about it on the internet. Can anyone think of any examples?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    SQ turbulence initial report:

    d. At 07:49:40 hr, the aircraft experienced a rapid change in G as recorded vertical acceleration decreased from +ve 1.35G to negative (-ve) 1.5G, within 0.6 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were not belted up to become airborne.

    e. At 07:49:41 hr, the vertical acceleration changed from -ve 1.5G to +ve 1.5G within 4 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.

    f. The rapid changes in G over the 4.6 sec duration resulted in an altitude drop of 178 ft, from 37,362 ft to 37,184 ft. This sequence of events likely caused the injuries to the crew and passengers


    https://www.mot.gov.sg/news/press-releases/Details/transport-safety-investigation-bureau-preliminary-investigation-findings-of-incident-involving-sq321

    No shit Sherlock - these air incident investigators don't miss a trick, do they?
    They have to explain it in words of fewer than four letters for those journos who do things like misreading Flightradar.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
    Hopium.

    "No, it can't be true. I can't be so massively disconnected from what most people think.

    The polls must all be wrong."
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138
    Latest news from dysfunctional Britain

    London St Pancras to Luton Airport Parkway goes from one gleaming new station to another gleaming new station

    And it takes…. 24 minutes
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459

    Ghedebrav said:

    The Matheson thing is one of the most bizarre and avoidable-at-multiple-points scandals I can recall in politics.

    The closest thing I can recall is when Red Ken had that mad phase when he couldn’t finish a sentence without “anyway, Hitler…”.

    The parcel of rogues is protean and immortal; I’m moderately unionist but I do feel for the Nats who are so grievously let down by their politicians.

    The thing that genuinely shocked me was he publicly threw his kids under the bus, without wanting to go full Andrea Leadsom, as a father etc...

    Oh and when he did that I don't think he quite realised the GDPR/DPA issues it would cause.
    Ken apparently stopped saying Hitler in 2018:
    https://x.com/kensayshitler?lang=en-GB

    On Mathieson, I'm still a little baffled as to how it blew up like this.

    It's a twat wasting lots of money by doing the wrong thing, and then failing to take responsibility for himself.

    That's not exactly huge.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,201
    MJW said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.

    You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.

    Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
    Dame Diana sounds quite good to me.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.

    You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.

    Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
    I don't think getting rid of Abbott will hurt Labour. Indeed it is further evidence that the party is under new management. Her sharpness has gone, and she seems quite unhealthy. Time to exit stage left.
    The contrast between Abbott and Elphicke is a Labour Party incongruity. Nonetheless Abbott still retains the propensity to say something utterly mad and offensive. Although she does seem to have won the hearts and minds of the PB Tories.
    I guess they both have the fact that they are no longer MPs and are not contesting a seat for Labour in common.

    I wonder if there will be some sort of Hackney/Islington axis of allotment socialism with Abbot and Corbyn aligning to both stand.

    Wouldn’t blame them tbh and while I wouldn’t vote for them I have a lot more good will towards them than I do Galloway. There is a space on the far left for a socially liberal group, even though the tendency there is towards conservative authoritarianism.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,240
    SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/29/diane-abbott-banned-standing-labour-election

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,223

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
    Why?
    The seventh circle of Hell is reserved for the poll rampers, who skew betting markets and create false narratives. Yesterday was a truly unedifying spectacle.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited May 29
    Carnyx said:

    SQ turbulence initial report:

    d. At 07:49:40 hr, the aircraft experienced a rapid change in G as recorded vertical acceleration decreased from +ve 1.35G to negative (-ve) 1.5G, within 0.6 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were not belted up to become airborne.

    e. At 07:49:41 hr, the vertical acceleration changed from -ve 1.5G to +ve 1.5G within 4 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.

    f. The rapid changes in G over the 4.6 sec duration resulted in an altitude drop of 178 ft, from 37,362 ft to 37,184 ft. This sequence of events likely caused the injuries to the crew and passengers


    https://www.mot.gov.sg/news/press-releases/Details/transport-safety-investigation-bureau-preliminary-investigation-findings-of-incident-involving-sq321

    No shit Sherlock - these air incident investigators don't miss a trick, do they?
    They have to explain it in words of fewer than four letters for those journos who do things like misreading Flightradar.
    I object to the use of 'likely' in 'This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.'

    'Probably' would have been better but neither was necessary in this instance.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203
    Roger said:

    SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/29/diane-abbott-banned-standing-labour-election

    The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    Roger said:

    SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/29/diane-abbott-banned-standing-labour-election

    The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
    No wonder they're so unpopular.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    MattW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    The Matheson thing is one of the most bizarre and avoidable-at-multiple-points scandals I can recall in politics.

    The closest thing I can recall is when Red Ken had that mad phase when he couldn’t finish a sentence without “anyway, Hitler…”.

    The parcel of rogues is protean and immortal; I’m moderately unionist but I do feel for the Nats who are so grievously let down by their politicians.

    The thing that genuinely shocked me was he publicly threw his kids under the bus, without wanting to go full Andrea Leadsom, as a father etc...

    Oh and when he did that I don't think he quite realised the GDPR/DPA issues it would cause.
    Ken apparently stopped saying Hitler in 2018:
    https://x.com/kensayshitler?lang=en-GB

    On Mathieson, I'm still a little baffled as to how it blew up like this.

    It's a twat wasting lots of money by doing the wrong thing, and then failing to take responsibility for himself.

    That's not exactly huge.
    That was my point - it’s not in itself a big deal really, but the lies and the handling have become the issue.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Carnyx said:

    SQ turbulence initial report:

    d. At 07:49:40 hr, the aircraft experienced a rapid change in G as recorded vertical acceleration decreased from +ve 1.35G to negative (-ve) 1.5G, within 0.6 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were not belted up to become airborne.

    e. At 07:49:41 hr, the vertical acceleration changed from -ve 1.5G to +ve 1.5G within 4 sec. This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.

    f. The rapid changes in G over the 4.6 sec duration resulted in an altitude drop of 178 ft, from 37,362 ft to 37,184 ft. This sequence of events likely caused the injuries to the crew and passengers


    https://www.mot.gov.sg/news/press-releases/Details/transport-safety-investigation-bureau-preliminary-investigation-findings-of-incident-involving-sq321

    No shit Sherlock - these air incident investigators don't miss a trick, do they?
    They have to explain it in words of fewer than four letters for those journos who do things like misreading Flightradar.
    I object to the use of 'likely' in 'This likely resulted in the occupants who were airborne to fall back down.'

    'Probably' would have been better but neither was necessary in this instance.
    Indeed. Come to think of it, we had at least one person on PB who had difficulty with the physics of it, so perhaps I was being unfair about journalists.

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,223

    Roger said:

    SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/29/diane-abbott-banned-standing-labour-election

    The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
    …..
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
    Why?
    The seventh circle of Hell is reserved for the poll rampers, who skew betting markets and create false narratives. Yesterday was a truly unedifying spectacle.
    Skewed betting markets are the sharp bettor's Nirvana.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,126

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
    Hopium.

    "No, it can't be true. I can't be so massively disconnected from what most people think.

    The polls must all be wrong."
    YouGov today Baxters to Tories 29 seats. The real puzzle is who is disconnected from what? Am I disconnected because I don't think this
    or something a bit like it will happen despite the evidence? "It can't be true" (though I don't mind if it is) is running through a multitude of PB minds.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138
    Mind you I am now reliant on the worst airline in Eurasia. So early doors
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Roger said:

    SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/29/diane-abbott-banned-standing-labour-election

    Team Rishi looking on, thinking “we should have such banana skins”.

    At this point, don’t rule out Sunak slipping on a literal banana skin.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...

    NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News

    The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.


    image
    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1795683085943525716

    There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
    Why?
    The seventh circle of Hell is reserved for the poll rampers, who skew betting markets and create false narratives. Yesterday was a truly unedifying spectacle.
    But even the Daily Mail is reporting a "surge up the polls" for the Tories. It's not just PBers/twatters.

    We had some very dodgy interpretations of some polling questions earlier this year too (was it the Telegraph I remember?). At least we haven't had too much of that yet.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,503
    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.

    You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.

    Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
    I don't think getting rid of Abbott will hurt Labour. Indeed it is further evidence that the party is under new management. Her sharpness has gone, and she seems quite unhealthy. Time to exit stage left.
    Yup. I just think two things can be separately true.

    1.) It would have been far better if had been allowed to stand down with some dignity given her historic status and some of the appalling abuse she gets. Shame on whoever's briefing screwed that up.

    But...

    2.) Some of those either expressing or confecting outrage that it hasn't worked out like that seem to be forgetting (deliberately or otherwise) she's got a pretty long and dismal record of crossing or pushing the line on views Labour has been trying to root out as unacceptable since 2020.

    So the botching of it is less out of being vindictive to someone blameless - if they were doing that they'd have cast her out yonks ago and taken the local hit - as did with Corbyn and have done with prominent non-MPs. Than failed management of sensitivities around offering someone a dignified exit.

    I certainly don't think shunting her to the Lords would be a good look.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    MJW said:

    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT (but relevant to this one)

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Ed Davey = deputy PM on 5th July?

    In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
    I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
    To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.

    And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.

    And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.

    They've got five weeks, and counting.
    It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
    It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.

    Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
    The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
    Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.

    You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.

    Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
    I don't think getting rid of Abbott will hurt Labour. Indeed it is further evidence that the party is under new management. Her sharpness has gone, and she seems quite unhealthy. Time to exit stage left.
    Yup. I just think two things can be separately true.

    1.) It would have been far better if had been allowed to stand down with some dignity given her historic status and some of the appalling abuse she gets. Shame on whoever's briefing screwed that up.

    But...

    2.) Some of those either expressing or confecting outrage that it hasn't worked out like that seem to be forgetting (deliberately or otherwise) she's got a pretty long and dismal record of crossing or pushing the line on views Labour has been trying to root out as unacceptable since 2020.

    So the botching of it is less out of being vindictive to someone blameless - if they were doing that they'd have cast her out yonks ago and taken the local hit - as did with Corbyn and have done with prominent non-MPs. Than failed management of sensitivities around offering someone a dignified exit.

    I certainly don't think shunting her to the Lords would be a good look.
    The practice of shunting people to the lords needs to stop on all sides.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    Leon said:

    Mind you I am now reliant on the worst airline in Eurasia. So early doors

    Which airline has that title at the moment? Wizz Air really has improved since 2022...
This discussion has been closed.