That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.
Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.
Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?
Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?
You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.
Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?
Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.
I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure
I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.
I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?
I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.
If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.
But hey, I am only one vote!
You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all. Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.
But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.
This Diane Abbott business has been handled so ineptly by SKS. He is getting a free pass at the moment because, compared to the Blue Team, the red team are quite adept.
However if he handles issues like this in govt that will turn.
Diane Abbott has been treated disgracefully whatever people may think of her and her politics.
My pet linguistic peeve is introducing management speak into everyday conversation…..to my horror I once found myself saying “Mother, that’s not actionable….”
I went through a very annoying phase of always asking somebody to quantify their opinion on whether (or not) something would happen, ie give it a probability.
My mum: "I think Aunt Edith is coming for Christmas." Me: "You think?" My mum: "Well I'm not sure but she should be." Me: "More likely than not then, is what you actually mean." My mum: "I suppose so, yes." Me: "How likely though? 75% 90% Can we put a number on it?"
All very interesting, but did Aunt Edith come for Christmas or didn't she?
She did - and brought the usual bottle of Baileys.
My Mom's Auntie Edith used to visit us for Xmas, Warninks Advocaat was a tipple of hers.
Oh yes. Alcoholic custard. An acquired taste which I did for a time acquire.
Advocaat and Cherry Brandy, anyone? The hight of sophistication in Hackney Wick circa 1955.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Rugeley in Staffs is pronounced Rudge-lee for some reason, Houghton-Le-Spring is pronounced Horton-Le-Spring by locals of my acquantance. Bizarre.
Mildenhall, Suffolk is pronounced Mill-Den-Hall, Mildenhall, Wilts is Pronounced Mine-ul,
As noted elsewhere, many Scottish pronunciations are also a long way from their spellings: Garioch, as Gear-ee for example.
My sister's satnav pronounces Keighley as "Kee-ley", which is not how Eddie Waring pronounced it for the Rugby League.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
The incredibly rare and definitely incurable Sir Ed Davy Derangement Syndrome (SEDDS).
Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.
Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far. Rachel Reeves has been more active.
All to play for.
Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?
I’m not convinced by this received wisdom. The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.
And the polls haven't shifted.
I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.
Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.
But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.
I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?
Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.
It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.
The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Cherwell - Char-well. Locals say Cherwell, snobs say Charwell.
Even OKC's* Witham causes confusion, outsiders often call it With-am rather than Wit-am
*Well, he's somewhere near - Priti Patel is his MP, I believe
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
I love the idea that you think you could start a new job and within the first few weeks fully identify a full on disaster that everyone is doing their best to hide from your view especially when the only access you have is controlled by other people.
That's a fantasy which is why those who have spent a while looking at the Post Office Scandal know that Davey wasn't perfect but actually couldn't do much more than he did.
I also suspect that when it comes to his day in the inquest he won't have uniquely specific memory issues the way Vennells and others have
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
“SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn has insisted his party can retain all of its Scottish seats at Westminster – and even win more.”
Ha ha ha ha ha
I think it was him (or 'he' if we are on grammar points) on R4 Today this morning speaking at very high speed explaining that the SNP was in fact in favour of lots more oil and gas production in Scotland/Scottish waters because this was tremendous for getting to net zero. Did I get the SNP policy right?
My pet linguistic peeve is introducing management speak into everyday conversation…..to my horror I once found myself saying “Mother, that’s not actionable….”
I went through a very annoying phase of always asking somebody to quantify their opinion on whether (or not) something would happen, ie give it a probability.
My mum: "I think Aunt Edith is coming for Christmas." Me: "You think?" My mum: "Well I'm not sure but she should be." Me: "More likely than not then, is what you actually mean." My mum: "I suppose so, yes." Me: "How likely though? 75% 90% Can we put a number on it?"
It's a great get out when reporting to directors though:
"How certain are you, you can land this project on time?" "We're in good shape - 95% we'll land on time." Later... "You missed the target date - you misled us." "Well... 5% is not zero."
Exactly! Although in my case it came from too much immersion in probability theory. It describes reality (and all else is sloppy) but I was becoming a pain in the neck to friends and family. I keep it for here now.
Was the arrival of Aunt Edith a thing to be celebrated, or dreaded? I could read either into that conversation. But not a pain in the neck at all. If only more people thought like this. Oddly, some of my daughters - even at least one of the non-mathematical ones - instinctively think like this. Not just 'will such a thing happen?' but 'How likely?' - and want a likelihood expressed in percentages, not just a 'very'. I may have influenced them more than I give myself credit for.
Excellent. Time for you to open a spread betting account for them methinks.
Aunt Edith? Oh very much celebrated. A great lady. In domestic service at 15, ended up as executive PA to the CEO of a Footsie 100 company. Died a few years ago aged 93.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
I have found PtP's commentary and insight on this to be not only very informative and fair but very non partisan too.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Very soft spot for Cupar myself.
Yes my parents just moved there! On the river Eden - was Fife perhaps the original paradise?
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
That's the Irish pronunciation because of the 'hidden vowel rules.'
So you've just said Irish people are morons...
And Geordies.
Fil-im, not fil-um. For what you go to see at the pictures.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Wymondham (Leics) is of course very near to the vale of Belvoir.
There's a Belvoir Hunt of course.
(Always found it a bit disappointing that there isn't a hunt named the Vale of York tbh).
Has to be very carefully pronounced/typed, for obvious reasons and because of unconscious crossover with the slang use of Berkeley Hunt. Wouldn't want to upset anyone.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Very soft spot for Cupar myself.
Yes my parents just moved there! On the river Eden - was Fife perhaps the original paradise?
I love the bakers there ... real ironmongery ... library ... and so on. Or I did. Not been for a few years though.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Cherwell - Char-well. Locals say Cherwell, snobs say Charwell.
Launceston is an oddity. People think they are getting it right saying lawnston but locals call it lanson or larnson. I understand Launceston in Tasmania is pronounced as written.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.
Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.
Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?
Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?
You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.
Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?
Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.
I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure
I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.
I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?
I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.
If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.
But hey, I am only one vote!
You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all. Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.
But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.
Thank you so much for explaining things about me that I didn't know. I'm tempted to take a shot at wildly guessing your motivations, but I generally leave such ignorant suppositions about others to the pompous and moronically stupid.
I don't hate anyone as it happens, and those with longer memories will remember I have been largely complimentary about Starmer, boring though he undoubtedly is, and that I was similarly concerned about a large majority under Johnson. The latter fears were well placed. There is no evidence to suggest that untrammelled power from the goons on the Labour benches will be any more benign than Johnson and his brigade of swivel-eyed loons..
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Rugeley in Staffs is pronounced Rudge-lee for some reason, Houghton-Le-Spring is pronounced Horton-Le-Spring by locals of my acquantance. Bizarre.
Mildenhall, Suffolk is pronounced Mill-Den-Hall, Mildenhall, Wilts is Pronounced Mine-ul,
As noted elsewhere, many Scottish pronunciations are also a long way from their spellings: Garioch, as Gear-ee for example.
My sister's satnav pronounces Keighley as "Kee-ley", which is not how Eddie Waring pronounced it for the Rugby League.
Or me.
And how does it pronounce Slaithwaite ?
Oh, if you want to hear a peculiar, idiosyncratic (and I think completely artificial) accent, try Neil Nunes, the Radio 4 announcer.
I have never heard anyone else pronounce London to rhyme with Ron Don.
Donald J. Trump & @realDonaldTrump 16m KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD, ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD WE TRUST!
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
My favourite comedy Scottish placename is Gowkthrapple. It is not that far from Bonkle.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Blennerhasset, which is near Torpenhow (Trapenner) and Aspatria (Spiatri) is pronounced Blen-ray-sit.
Charles Dickens said that Aspatria is pronounced 'Spatter' which was close for someone from the south.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
The incredibly rare and definitely incurable Sir Ed Davy Derangement Syndrome (SEDDS).
Channelling Boris Johnson on that surfboard yesterday, I note. Shrewd.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Very soft spot for Cupar myself.
Yes my parents just moved there! On the river Eden - was Fife perhaps the original paradise?
I love the bakers there ... real ironmongery ... library ... and so on. Or I did. Not been for a few years though.
Yes it's still a proper town. Nice set of pubs too I believe. I don't know it well as my folks only recently moved there from St Andrews (I asked them how they'd enjoyed their move to Scotland).
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.
Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.
Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?
Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?
You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.
Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?
Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.
I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure
I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.
I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?
I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.
If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.
But hey, I am only one vote!
You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all. Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.
But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.
If Rory Stewart was leading the Tories on a similar platform to Starmer, no doubt Nigel would be a big cheerleader. Although the words and language will differ quite a lot, policy wise I am not sure there is much between the sensible parts of Labour and the Conservative party. Policy is overwhelmingly driven by our demographics and economic capability.
The big divide should be between the fantasists on both sides who over promise, are impatient, kill investment and bring chaos, and those willing to run a steady ship with incremental longer term benefits.
Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.
Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far. Rachel Reeves has been more active.
All to play for.
Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?
I’m not convinced by this received wisdom. The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.
And the polls haven't shifted.
I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.
Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.
But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.
I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?
Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.
It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.
The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.
I just think that as far as campaigning is going, and I refer to the “air war”, as I have no understanding of canvassing etc, the Tories are doing pretty well.
They are defining the narrative.
I expect to see a modest recovery in their polling from about the end of this week.
A friend at work, she's quite the Blue voter, has just discovered that her constituency has moved away from her and she's gone from a safe Conservative seat to a safe Labour one.
Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.
Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far. Rachel Reeves has been more active.
All to play for.
Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?
I’m not convinced by this received wisdom. The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.
And the polls haven't shifted.
I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.
Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.
But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.
I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?
Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.
It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.
The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.
As I've said continually for a while, the argument that the tories will get 27+% is based on swingback to the Tories occurring.
That may not be the case this time around. The last similar election was 1997 and the Tory party leader then was pitied rather than hated. Rishi is no John Major in a lot of ways as demonstrated by the first two ideas from the Tory party...
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Very soft spot for Cupar myself.
Yes my parents just moved there! On the river Eden - was Fife perhaps the original paradise?
I love the bakers there ... real ironmongery ... library ... and so on. Or I did. Not been for a few years though.
Yes it's still a proper town. Nice set of pubs too I believe. I don't know it well as my folks only recently moved there from St Andrews (I asked them how they'd enjoyed their move to Scotland).
I rather liked a pub lunch in the Boudingait, or if something more substantial the Courtyard - ScotoGermanic cuisine, well mostly Scots but with stuff like Jaegerschnitzel and Apfelkuechle.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
I have found PtP's commentary and insight on this to be not only very informative and fair but very non partisan too.
I think your characterisation is a little unfair.
Really? He seems very keen to defend Davy. In my view Davy is one of the very worst breed of politicians; he attempts to swerve responsibility and completely and utterly fails to live up to the standards he demands of those in other parties. He is absolutely in the same camp as Boris Johnson IMO and the sooner he is seen as such the better.
Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.
Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far. Rachel Reeves has been more active.
All to play for.
Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?
I’m not convinced by this received wisdom. The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.
And the polls haven't shifted.
I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.
Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.
But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.
I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?
Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.
It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.
The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.
I just think that as far as campaigning is going, and I refer to the “air war”, as I have no understanding of canvassing etc, the Tories are doing pretty well.
They are defining the narrative.
I expect to see a modest recovery in their polling from about the end of this week.
They may be defining the narrative but the response has been WTAF rather hmm that's a good idea...
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
Blackadder: Have you ever been to Wales, Baldrick?
Baldrick: No, but I've often thought I'd like to.
Blackadder: Well don't. It's a ghastly place. Huge gangs of tough, sinewy men roam the Valleys, terrorizing people with their close-harmony singing. You need half a pint of phlegm in your throat just to pronounce the place names. Never ask for directions in Wales, Baldrick. You'll be washing spit out of your hair for a fortnight.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Rugeley in Staffs is pronounced Rudge-lee for some reason, Houghton-Le-Spring is pronounced Horton-Le-Spring by locals of my acquantance. Bizarre.
Any idea how the good people of Essex pronounce Ugley?
Ooglay ?
I think they put a Y in front of it, but I don't go to Essex much these days.
The other side of Bishop's Stortford, there is a hamlet called Nasty.
There's a (probably apocryphal) story that there was once a newspaper headline "Nasty man and Ugley woman to wed" (or vice-versa, according to taste).
Donald J. Trump & @realDonaldTrump 16m KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD, ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD WE TRUST!
I think he expects to be found guilty....
Does he have a problem with his caps lock do you think?
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
The one thing I got out of three years at Cardiff University was the ability to pronounce Llanelli properly without covering anyone in gob.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
My favourite comedy Scottish placename is Gowkthrapple. It is not that far from Bonkle.
After Blackadder, Peebles is forever a comic name.
A friend at work, she's quite the Blue voter, has just discovered that her constituency has moved away from her and she's gone from a safe Conservative seat to a safe Labour one.
Donald J. Trump & @realDonaldTrump 16m KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD, ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD WE TRUST!
I think he expects to be found guilty....
That last bit (In God We Trust) sounds rather perfunctory.
On the issue of this being an epoch defining election, whilst the number of people standing down I am sure is higher than would have been the case had the Tories looked like winning, given the average time in parliament of those standing down in 2019 was around 18.5 years it is also the case that a large number of those standing down it is just a natural time for them to do so.
However, that hides that the average length of service for Labour MPs standing down is 21.9 years (thanks to some real veterans like Sheerman, Harman, and Hodge) and 16.2 years for the Tories. There are also only 30 Labour MPs versus over 70 Tories.
Those party averages do not include those currently without the whip.
The overall number being low is probably due to a large 2010 intake standing down, as well as a number of first termerss from the Red Wall and SNP MPs who were mostly elected in 2015.
Maybe we need more MPs who can sit it out through opposition as well as government, but with such long periods of both now it is hard.
(Clearly different people updated their wikipedia pages, as some state they were the MP from X-2024, others stating they will be standing down in 2024 - they are technically MPs until tomorrow)
Well! As the Graun points out, a very recent Tory Twatter is still up claiming Ms Rayner is being investigated for ... I'd quote it but I don't want to get OGH into trouble.
On the PO issue, everyone will doubtless have their own views and motives, and I'm going to be as biased as anyone else - but for me, while all parties have their hands in the blood, only one - the Tory Party - has tried to weaponise it for their own electoral profit. That's enough for me to resent giving them that profit.
My pet linguistic peeve is introducing management speak into everyday conversation…..to my horror I once found myself saying “Mother, that’s not actionable….”
I went through a very annoying phase of always asking somebody to quantify their opinion on whether (or not) something would happen, ie give it a probability.
My mum: "I think Aunt Edith is coming for Christmas." Me: "You think?" My mum: "Well I'm not sure but she should be." Me: "More likely than not then, is what you actually mean." My mum: "I suppose so, yes." Me: "How likely though? 75% 90% Can we put a number on it?"
All very interesting, but did Aunt Edith come for Christmas or didn't she?
She did - and brought the usual bottle of Baileys.
My Mom's Auntie Edith used to visit us for Xmas, Warninks Advocaat was a tipple of hers.
Oh yes. Alcoholic custard. An acquired taste which I did for a time acquire.
It's worse even than that. It's alcoholic sweetened soft boiled eggs. It was extensively advertised in the days when I first watched TV in the early 60s so the concept, and jingle, in indelibly printed on my mind. It serves as a terrible warning never to touch the stuff, which is, as Harris said of lemonade in Three Men in a Boat, the cause of half the crime in England.
Another poor Conservative poll - the swing to Labour is 9.5% but nationally it's much higher. In Scotland it's about 12% and about the same in London so we must be looking at some huge movements in provincial England (no giggling in the cheap seats, please).
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
I love the idea that you think you could start a new job and within the first few weeks fully identify a full on disaster that everyone is doing their best to hide from your view especially when the only access you have is controlled by other people.
That's a fantasy which is why those who have spent a while looking at the Post Office Scandal know that Davey wasn't perfect but actually couldn't do much more than he did.
I also suspect that when it comes to his day in the inquest he won't have uniquely specific memory issues the way Vennells and others have
Erm, he had two years. Two years to not notice. Chose not to notice.
I think these people have "spent a while looking at the Post Office Scandal"
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
My favourite comedy Scottish placename is Gowkthrapple. It is not that far from Bonkle.
After Blackadder, Peebles is forever a comic name.
Obviously the scriptwriter had never been. Like Cupar, it's still a real town with some decent shops. And a very pleasant setting on the Tweed.
Just goes to reinforce my view on the inexplicable sadomachochism of PBTories and their ilk. Spend decades traducing the poor lady and then get upset when other folk shoulder them aside and steal their fun.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.
Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.
Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?
Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?
You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.
Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?
Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.
I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure
I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.
I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?
I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.
If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.
But hey, I am only one vote!
You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all. Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.
But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.
Thank you so much for explaining things about me that I didn't know. I'm tempted to take a shot at wildly guessing your motivations, but I generally leave such ignorant suppositions about others to the pompous and moronically stupid.
I don't hate anyone as it happens, and those with longer memories will remember I have been largely complimentary about Starmer, boring though he undoubtedly is, and that I was similarly concerned about a large majority under Johnson. The latter fears were well placed. There is no evidence to suggest that untrammelled power from the goons on the Labour benches will be any more benign than Johnson and his brigade of swivel-eyed loons..
Amazing to meet (so to speak) someone not totally unhinged - although you have your moments - who is actually going to go into the ballot box and vote for the Conservatives.
Are we expecting a verdict in the case of the Trumpdozer today ?
Unless it is super quick apparently not, based on the significance of the moment and the clunky way New York makes them requesting to go over the evidence go.
There was definitely business fraud, tying Trump to it and the intent for a second crime looks to have been made as well as it could do, but there's always hope for him to get a hold out - not that he waits for that with his endless ramblings about corruption and bias.
Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.
Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far. Rachel Reeves has been more active.
All to play for.
Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?
I’m not convinced by this received wisdom. The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.
And the polls haven't shifted.
I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.
Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.
But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.
I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?
Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.
It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.
The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.
I just think that as far as campaigning is going, and I refer to the “air war”, as I have no understanding of canvassing etc, the Tories are doing pretty well.
They are defining the narrative.
I expect to see a modest recovery in their polling from about the end of this week.
They may be defining the narrative but the response has been WTAF rather hmm that's a good idea...
Ok but they are not trying to appeal to you or me.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.
Question. You say Davey has "weaselled his way out of scrutiny". The opposite is true. He has had all the scrutiny, and has accounted for his actions.
Where is the scrutiny on Badenoch? Or on any of the previous Tory ministers? Where is their accountability? Or their apology?
Just so we're clear, your reaction to the Post Office outrage is that you are going to vote for the party who have been solely in government covering this up for 9 years, who have issued zero apology for their personal actions, who gave Vennels a CBE, who have done everything they can not to accept there is an issue, who have delayed and delayed and delayed paying any compensation to the victims?
You're voting Tory in outrage of the PO scandal? Just so we're clear.
Quite frankly I couldn't give a flying fuck if you are clear or not as you are an apologist for Davy, but here goes an explanation: I will not vote LD this time because their leader should resign because he knew, and he is a party leader . Simple enough for you?
Your attempt to create equivalence with Badenoch is ridiculous as she is not a party leader.
I would like intense scrutiny of all of them. I would like any that are proven to have covered things up to resign their seats or possibly go to jail. I would like them to experience some of the misery that the sub postmasters have had to endure
I didn't ask whether you would vote LibDem. You are clear on that topic.
I asked if you are going to vote Tory. You - like so many of us - are very upset by the PO scandal. You have identified it as a key driver for how you will vote. So are you - as a result of your anger - going to vote Tory?
I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I will vote Conservative for the first time in three GEs, and this is largely driven not out of any love for what the Tories have become, but by the damage that I think will be done by a highly amateurish Labour Party that does not understand business. This is in spite of their better-late-than-never attempts to appeal to that constituency which have been completely underwhelming. I suspect there will be a huge majority for Labour at the GE but hope a few more people will think like I do to mitigate it.
If Johnson was still PM it would be a far more difficult choice. Over the years I have generally vacillated between LD/SDP and Conservative. While I would never vote Tory when their leader was a clown out of principle, I would also not vote LD when their leader is either a total fool or a liar - essentially the two main faults of Johnson.
But hey, I am only one vote!
You simply hate and fear Labour, that’s all. Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.
But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.
Thank you so much for explaining things about me that I didn't know. I'm tempted to take a shot at wildly guessing your motivations, but I generally leave such ignorant suppositions about others to the pompous and moronically stupid.
I don't hate anyone as it happens, and those with longer memories will remember I have been largely complimentary about Starmer, boring though he undoubtedly is, and that I was similarly concerned about a large majority under Johnson. The latter fears were well placed. There is no evidence to suggest that untrammelled power from the goons on the Labour benches will be any more benign than Johnson and his brigade of swivel-eyed loons..
Amazing to meet (so to speak) someone not totally unhinged - although you have your moments - who is actually going to go into the ballot box and vote for the Conservatives.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
The incredibly rare and definitely incurable Sir Ed Davy Derangement Syndrome (SEDDS).
Hoho. Nice use of someone else's post there. Originality never really your thing was it old chap?
Although the polls look terrible, Rishi has five weeks and seems to be doing his own version of Major’s soapbox.
Starmer has said nothing of note or interest so far. Rachel Reeves has been more active.
All to play for.
Isn't the Tories problem that Sunak keeps standing up and making mad announcement after mad announcement?
I’m not convinced by this received wisdom. The announcements may be cynical, I’m not sure they are “mad”. And he’s making all the running.
And the polls haven't shifted.
I wouldn’t expect them to do so until the end of this week.
Let’s be clear, the snap election announcement was an unholy disaster.
But since then, I think the Tories are doing better than the Twitter / bien pensant / PB consensus.
I'm genuinely interested in that last comment - on what basis, using what evidence do you come to that conclusion?
Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.
It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.
The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.
I just think that as far as campaigning is going, and I refer to the “air war”, as I have no understanding of canvassing etc, the Tories are doing pretty well.
They are defining the narrative.
I expect to see a modest recovery in their polling from about the end of this week.
They may be defining the narrative but the response has been WTAF rather hmm that's a good idea...
Ok but they are not trying to appeal to you or me.
The WTAF came from my parents (target audience in that the local Tories have visited them 3 times this year) and my children (20ish students of some form or other)
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
It isn't Tories you numpty, it is fact. He was PO minister ffs. He is now the leader of a major party and he has either lied or is incompetent (along with other PO ministers). If he (and his successors as ministers) didn't think that it was odd that PO sub postmasters had a percentage of criminality much much higher than the rest of the population then he is quite frankly a fecking idiot. Either that or a lazy incompetent, or was ok to go along with the conspiracy to protect the glorious institution that is our wonderful Post Office.
He knew and his successors did. He did nothing about it therefore he is an absolute fucking disgrace.
And his predecessors, but you clearly have a thing about him that is beyond reason.
You are obviously having a bad day cognitively in your desperation to defend the indefensible. His predecessors and successors are probably equally culpable to a greater or lesser extent.
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
The incredibly rare and definitely incurable Sir Ed Davy Derangement Syndrome (SEDDS).
Hoho. Nice use of someone else's post there. Originality never really your thing was it old chap?
I may not be original, but at least I am coherent.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
My favourite comedy Scottish placename is Gowkthrapple. It is not that far from Bonkle.
After Blackadder, Peebles is forever a comic name.
Obviously the scriptwriter had never been. Like Cupar, it's still a real town with some decent shops. And a very pleasant setting on the Tweed.
The joke was on Blackadder. And his pronunciation of Peebles.
Talking about Fife and trains, Mr Swinney has just been on the inaugural train from Waverley to Leven and Cameron Bridge - reversing a Beeching cut (but I believe with a spot of new building, so not on exactly the same line all the way?).
Donald J. Trump & @realDonaldTrump 16m KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD, ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD WE TRUST!
I think he expects to be found guilty....
Does he have a problem with his caps lock do you think?
The least of his problems.
On the stealing bit his defence are on solid ground to point it out, except they also maintain, simultaneously, that the amount he was paid was actually for his monthly legal retainer (which he says did not exist) for legal work (which he says he was not doing) and not reimbursement of expenses.
So he admitted to stealing 50k by lying about how much should be reimbursed for a payment to an IT company, but also nothing was stolen because the payments were essentially his salary.
I know the burden is on the prosecution but hopefully the mixture of defences will not confuse the jury.
Does Labour actually need to formally bar Diane Abbott from standing? Right now it's in the gift of the NEC, all they need to say is that Abbott is welcome to apply for the selection and then give it to Moema or Bramble. Am I being too cynical?
She's the sitting MP, so should in theory be selected by default if she puts her name forward. Mandatory re-selection was something Momentum was very keen on, but I don't think it ever came to pass
It's notable that Labour aren't actually saying anything. We're only hearing Abbot's side of the story, and even that seems a bit confused/contradictory at times.
It feels to me like the leadership are still hoping that a dignified exit - or however close to dignified as can be managed - can be negotiated.
My pet linguistic peeve is introducing management speak into everyday conversation…..to my horror I once found myself saying “Mother, that’s not actionable….”
I went through a very annoying phase of always asking somebody to quantify their opinion on whether (or not) something would happen, ie give it a probability.
My mum: "I think Aunt Edith is coming for Christmas." Me: "You think?" My mum: "Well I'm not sure but she should be." Me: "More likely than not then, is what you actually mean." My mum: "I suppose so, yes." Me: "How likely though? 75% 90% Can we put a number on it?"
All very interesting, but did Aunt Edith come for Christmas or didn't she?
She did - and brought the usual bottle of Baileys.
My Mom's Auntie Edith used to visit us for Xmas, Warninks Advocaat was a tipple of hers.
Oh yes. Alcoholic custard. An acquired taste which I did for a time acquire.
It's worse even than that. It's alcoholic sweetened soft boiled eggs. It was extensively advertised in the days when I first watched TV in the early 60s so the concept, and jingle, in indelibly printed on my mind. It serves as a terrible warning never to touch the stuff, which is, as Harris said of lemonade in Three Men in a Boat, the cause of half the crime in England.
On the other hand it did give rise to the legendary (and possibly apocryphal) anecdote, that when Shaun Ryder was arrested for cocaine possession in Jersey and asked by the police if he would like an advocate, he replied "I don't want no poncey southern drinks, I'll have a lager..."
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Kirkcaldy. Milngavie.
Part of the confusion stems from recording error from institutions like Ordnance Survey. This is particularly the case with Scottish hills, to the extent that some non-local Gaelic speakers use the OS name, even if it makes no sense in context.
Kirkcaldy is a doddle as far as Fife place names go! Anstruther pronounced Ainster. Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar. Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place. * pronounced Weems. ** village cricket champions, 1985.
Auchterarder Is a great name. Clears the throat nicely.
The one thing I got out of three years at Cardiff University was the ability to pronounce Llanelli properly without covering anyone in gob.
I was assured by Llanelli locals that the gob covering was an essential part of it when the whole pub took turns doing it over me.
Donald J. Trump & @realDonaldTrump 16m KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD, ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD WE TRUST!
I think he expects to be found guilty....
Does he have a problem with his caps lock do you think?
He just has issues, and I do not mean of Top Gear Magazine.
Another poor Conservative poll - the swing to Labour is 9.5% but nationally it's much higher. In Scotland it's about 12% and about the same in London so we must be looking at some huge movements in provincial England (no giggling in the cheap seats, please).
MiC UK swing is about 14% at the moment, their Scotland Con Lab swing is 12%, their england overall swing is probably 15 to 16% with those in mind
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Cherwell - Char-well. Locals say Cherwell, snobs say Charwell.
Even OKC's* Witham causes confusion, outsiders often call it With-am rather than Wit-am
*Well, he's somewhere near - Priti Patel is his MP, I believe
Yes, not far away. In a small town whose name is pronounced by genuine locals with some letters missed out. I’m surprised nobody has (yet) referenced the small Norfolk town of Happisburgh. Pronounced Hazboro.
On the issue of this being an epoch defining election, whilst the number of people standing down I am sure is higher than would have been the case had the Tories looked like winning, given the average time in parliament of those standing down in 2019 was around 18.5 years it is also the case that a large number of those standing down it is just a natural time for them to do so.
However, that hides that the average length of service for Labour MPs standing down is 21.9 years (thanks to some real veterans like Sheerman, Harman, and Hodge) and 16.2 years for the Tories. There are also only 30 Labour MPs versus over 70 Tories.
Those party averages do not include those currently without the whip.
The overall number being low is probably due to a large 2010 intake standing down, as well as a number of first termerss from the Red Wall and SNP MPs who were mostly elected in 2015.
Maybe we need more MPs who can sit it out through opposition as well as government, but with such long periods of both now it is hard.
(Clearly different people updated their wikipedia pages, as some state they were the MP from X-2024, others stating they will be standing down in 2024 - they are technically MPs until tomorrow)
A figure to speculate on is how many of the 2024 intake, totalling 650, will be returners. If the result is at the far end of the possibilities, there will be about 160 Labour, and possibly only 60/70 or so Tories, maybe 60 for PC/SNP/LDs. Leaving perhaps over 350 newbies.
Donald J. Trump & @realDonaldTrump 16m KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD, ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD WE TRUST!
I think he expects to be found guilty....
That last bit (In God We Trust) sounds rather perfunctory.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Similarly, Southwell in Nottinghamshire. Which is pronounced Suth'll by people from Nottinghamshire. Apart from by people from Southwell, who almost overenunciate South-well.
Place names are a complete minefield, like with Wymondham, Norfolk being Wind'em and Wymondham, Leicestershire being Why-mond-ham (hattip to Andrew at Britain Elects for that factoid)
Cherwell - Char-well. Locals say Cherwell, snobs say Charwell.
Even OKC's* Witham causes confusion, outsiders often call it With-am rather than Wit-am
*Well, he's somewhere near - Priti Patel is his MP, I believe
Yes, not far away. In a small town whose name is pronounced by genuine locals with some letters missed out. I’m surprised nobody has (yet) referenced the small Norfolk town of Happisburgh. Pronounced Hazboro.
Sadly coastal erosion means that Happisburgh, which I have visited many times, is going to be increasingly under water. The rate of progress is striking.
On the issue of this being an epoch defining election, whilst the number of people standing down I am sure is higher than would have been the case had the Tories looked like winning, given the average time in parliament of those standing down in 2019 was around 18.5 years it is also the case that a large number of those standing down it is just a natural time for them to do so.
However, that hides that the average length of service for Labour MPs standing down is 21.9 years (thanks to some real veterans like Sheerman, Harman, and Hodge) and 16.2 years for the Tories. There are also only 30 Labour MPs versus over 70 Tories.
Those party averages do not include those currently without the whip.
The overall number being low is probably due to a large 2010 intake standing down, as well as a number of first termerss from the Red Wall and SNP MPs who were mostly elected in 2015.
Maybe we need more MPs who can sit it out through opposition as well as government, but with such long periods of both now it is hard.
(Clearly different people updated their wikipedia pages, as some state they were the MP from X-2024, others stating they will be standing down in 2024 - they are technically MPs until tomorrow)
A figure to speculate on is how many of the 2024 intake, totalling 650, will be returners. If the result is at the far end of the possibilities, there will be about 160 Labour, and possibly only 60/70 or so Tories, maybe 60 for PC/SNP/LDs. Leaving perhaps over 350 newbies.
In 1997 there were 249 not standing or defeated, and 225 in 2010 (I guess in 1997 more Tories put up a fight as far more were defeated there than in 2010). We're up to 131 definitely not coming back, and assume for sake of argument somehwere between the 76-132 defeats seen in 1997/2010, and that gets you to 200 or so newbies.
With the SNP possibly facing a couple dozen losses, a whole new tranche of Labour MPs not super high on retreads, and loads of Tories losing, it could well be a record number in the modern era?
Does Labour actually need to formally bar Diane Abbott from standing? Right now it's in the gift of the NEC, all they need to say is that Abbott is welcome to apply for the selection and then give it to Moema or Bramble. Am I being too cynical?
She's the sitting MP, so should in theory be selected by default if she puts her name forward. Mandatory re-selection was something Momentum was very keen on, but I don't think it ever came to pass
It's notable that Labour aren't actually saying anything. We're only hearing Abbot's side of the story, and even that seems a bit confused/contradictory at times.
It feels to me like the leadership are still hoping that a dignified exit - or however close to dignified as can be managed - can be negotiated.
We've heard a story from Labour which was that the 'independent' disciplinary process was ongoing which we now understand was not true. I cannot believe that Starmer was not aware of that fact before making that statement so I assume that he lied to kick the can down the road.
Comments
Everything else is an attempt at cognitive assonance.
But, there’s a decent chunk of the over 50s like you.
However if he handles issues like this in govt that will turn.
Diane Abbott has been treated disgracefully whatever people may think of her and her politics.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/starmer-no-decision-yet-taken-on-whether-abbott-will-stand-for-labour/ar-BB1ng2O7?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=f5e622c1ac2a494da226be0e94a50738&ei=15
And how does it pronounce Slaithwaite ?
Now here is the thing, and read this very slowly: Ed Davy is the only incompetent/liar (delete as appropriate) ex-PO Minister who is leading one of the main parties. Each of those PO ministers is as culpable as Vennells ffs!
Perhaps Ms Vennells should apply to be a candidate for the LDs and then can take over as LD leader.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3eMyjyZ6Aw
Once again, we come up against the credibility problem - because something has never happened there's a belief it can't happen and the "normal" will be restored. The Conservatives won't poll lower than 30% because they never have therefore somehow they will get 30% even though most polls have them below 25%. To even acknowledge the possibility of a 25% figure means suspending belief and that's a push because we are taught history is symmetrical and repeats itself.
It isn't and it doesn't. We look for patterns in the past to make sense of the present and forecast the future but those patterns can't deal with a new situation because there's no precedent for them.
The Conservatives could get 25% or even 20% - it's not inconceivable or impossible - it just doesn't align to our experience so we dismiss it.
Anstruther pronounced Ainster.
Kilconquar pronounced Kineuchar.
Actually I'll just give a shout out to Fife place names, for their sheer beauty and variety. From the Forth Bridge to St Andrews the coast gives you Inverkeithing, Aberdour, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Kirkcaldy, Dysart, Wemyss* (West, East and Coaltown of), Buckhaven, Methil, Lundin Links, Elie, St Monans, Pitenweem, Anstruther, Crail, Kingsbarns, and Boarhills. Inland you've got Kilconquar, Ceres, Auchtermuchty, Dunfermline, Freuchie** and Ladybank among others. It really is a strange and beautiful place.
* pronounced Weems.
** village cricket champions, 1985.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election#Opinion_polls
*Well, he's somewhere near - Priti Patel is his MP, I believe
That's a fantasy which is why those who have spent a while looking at the Post Office Scandal know that Davey wasn't perfect but actually couldn't do much more than he did.
I also suspect that when it comes to his day in the inquest he won't have uniquely specific memory issues the way Vennells and others have
Aunt Edith? Oh very much celebrated. A great lady. In domestic service at 15, ended up as executive PA to the CEO of a Footsie 100 company. Died a few years ago aged 93.
I think your characterisation is a little unfair.
I don't hate anyone as it happens, and those with longer memories will remember I have been largely complimentary about Starmer, boring though he undoubtedly is, and that I was similarly concerned about a large majority under Johnson. The latter fears were well placed. There is no evidence to suggest that untrammelled power from the goons on the Labour benches will be any more benign than Johnson and his brigade of swivel-eyed loons..
I have never heard anyone else pronounce London to rhyme with Ron Don.
Donald J. Trump &
@realDonaldTrump
16m
KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND
CONFLICTED JUDGE. RELIANCE ON
COUNSEL (ADVISE OF COUNSEL) NOT
ALLOWED BY MERCHAN, A FIRST. HIS
RULINGS, ON A CASE THAT SHOULD,
ACCORDING TO ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS
AND EXPERTS, NEVER HAVE BEEN
BROUGHT, HAVE MADE THIS A BIDEN
PUSHED WITCH HUNT. THERE WAS NO
CRIME, EXCEPT FOR THE BUM THAT GOT
CAUGHT STEALING FROM ME! IN GOD
WE TRUST!
I think he expects to be found guilty....
🔴 Labour 45% (+4)
🔵 Conservatives 21% (-15)
🟢 Plaid 13% (+3)
🟣Reform 12% (NEW)
🟡 Lib Dem 4% (-2)
🟩Green 3% (+2)
Charles Dickens said that Aspatria is pronounced 'Spatter' which was close for someone from the south.
The big divide should be between the fantasists on both sides who over promise, are impatient, kill investment and bring chaos, and those willing to run a steady ship with incremental longer term benefits.
They are defining the narrative.
I expect to see a modest recovery in their polling from about the end of this week.
She's in tears.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/boundary-review-2023-which-seats-will-change/
That may not be the case this time around. The last similar election was 1997 and the Tory party leader then was pitied rather than hated. Rishi is no John Major in a lot of ways as demonstrated by the first two ideas from the Tory party...
Have you ever been to Wales, Baldrick?
Baldrick:
No, but I've often thought I'd like to.
Blackadder:
Well don't. It's a ghastly place. Huge gangs of tough, sinewy men roam the Valleys, terrorizing people with their close-harmony singing. You need half a pint of phlegm in your throat just to pronounce the place names. Never ask for directions in Wales, Baldrick. You'll be washing spit out of your hair for a fortnight.
There's a (probably apocryphal) story that there was once a newspaper headline "Nasty man and Ugley woman to wed" (or vice-versa, according to taste).
ETA: And of course the joke about there being an Ugley WI
ETA2: Not a joke, apparently: https://essex.thewi.org.uk/find-wi/ugley
Presumably even the keenest Specciephiles would struggle to place Brendan O’Forehead in their pantheon of greats.
https://x.com/spectator/status/1795794961083838962?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
Of the 131 currently known to be standing down the average length of service is 17.1 years, so a bit less.
However, that hides that the average length of service for Labour MPs standing down is 21.9 years (thanks to some real veterans like Sheerman, Harman, and Hodge) and 16.2 years for the Tories. There are also only 30 Labour MPs versus over 70 Tories.
Those party averages do not include those currently without the whip.
The overall number being low is probably due to a large 2010 intake standing down, as well as a number of first termerss from the Red Wall and SNP MPs who were mostly elected in 2015.
Maybe we need more MPs who can sit it out through opposition as well as government, but with such long periods of both now it is hard.
(Clearly different people updated their wikipedia pages, as some state they were the MP from X-2024, others stating they will be standing down in 2024 - they are technically MPs until tomorrow)
[can't get linky right, sorry]
That's enough for me to resent giving them that profit.
I think these people have "spent a while looking at the Post Office Scandal"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-davey-post-office-horizon-it-bates-b2474822.html
Thanks to him we can now say “I’ve just BAXTERED that poll and the Tories are in dockside hooker territory”
What a wazzock.
There was definitely business fraud, tying Trump to it and the intent for a second crime looks to have been made as well as it could do, but there's always hope for him to get a hold out - not that he waits for that with his endless ramblings about corruption and bias.
McAngus: No, no; I’ll have Roxburgh and Selkirk.
Edmund: But that leaves me with Peebles!
McAngus: Oh, aye! and Peebles.
Edmund: B– b– but…
*specially for @Sunil_Prasannan *
On the stealing bit his defence are on solid ground to point it out, except they also maintain, simultaneously, that the amount he was paid was actually for his monthly legal retainer (which he says did not exist) for legal work (which he says he was not doing) and not reimbursement of expenses.
So he admitted to stealing 50k by lying about how much should be reimbursed for a payment to an IT company, but also nothing was stolen because the payments were essentially his salary.
I know the burden is on the prosecution but hopefully the mixture of defences will not confuse the jury.
It's notable that Labour aren't actually saying anything. We're only hearing Abbot's side of the story, and even that seems a bit confused/contradictory at times.
It feels to me like the leadership are still hoping that a dignified exit - or however close to dignified as can be managed - can be negotiated.
Are you telling me they were funning with me?
It's Davey !!!!!!!!!
I’m surprised nobody has (yet) referenced the small Norfolk town of Happisburgh. Pronounced Hazboro.
https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1743306613497426058
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U8zIIfEa7E
https://x.com/davidparsley50/status/1795816122140479563?s=46
With the SNP possibly facing a couple dozen losses, a whole new tranche of Labour MPs not super high on retreads, and loads of Tories losing, it could well be a record number in the modern era?
Edit: She is just Wrekin their chances.
Westminster Voting Intention (Scotland):
LAB: 36% (+3)
SNP: 32% (-6)
CON: 17% (+2)
LDM: 9% (+1)
via
@Survation
, 23-27 May
(Changes with 20 Feb)
My driver has just told me the roads are all empty “because of visit by Anthony blinken”. That’s half a paragraph there