Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Supermarkets don’t have enough check out staff, with the increasing use of self-service tills. The people who use the manned tills are very unrepresentative. The people who shop at supermarkets are unrepresentative.
They can put the single question on the self-service tills, not the manned tills. People who shop at supermarkets are a damn sight more representative than the people who waste an hour answering opinion polls, many of whom are astroturfers for political parties anyway (and a lot of them pb contributors back in the day). That is why opinion polls have to be so heavily weighted, which is where I came in.
You know, I misread that and thought you were referring to Truss (genuinely) and also thought it was unfortunate language and a bit misogynistic.
But no.
Bitch is not a word I would use to describe her. To be a bitch you need to be dogged and mean, have a scrappy arrogance. Truss is more like a wet gob of paper, something oddly organic but not wholly natural. Like some albino woodland creature with the wrong number of limbs. But not a bitch.
She is deeply, irredeemably weird.
Apparently her necklace has some hidden meaning. I have refrained from googling it.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Supermarkets don’t have enough check out staff, with the increasing use of self-service tills. The people who use the manned tills are very unrepresentative. The people who shop at supermarkets are unrepresentative.
My wife comments frequently (and adversely) that I rarely go shopping with her. Due to the fact that I was for 20 or so years a community pharmacist and before that was around and about my mother’s pharmacy. In other words, I feel no desire to go into a shop again!
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Supermarkets don’t have enough check out staff, with the increasing use of self-service tills. The people who use the manned tills are very unrepresentative. The people who shop at supermarkets are unrepresentative.
All true, of course.
I've an idea. How about we ask everyone to tell us who they prefer, as a matter of civic pride. We could open up rooms around the country to allow them to give their views secretly. We could allocate a day for it so that we capture a consistent point-in-time view. A Thursday in early June maybe?
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Yes, and indeed the Tories may well have destroyed themselves as a brand for the future by essentially appearing this way.
I actually think there’s a good chance that when a right wing party takes power in the UK again it could be a rebranded outfit - maybe the legal successor to the Tory/Conservative and Unionist Party but not using the name.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
I'm mindful the final YouGov of the London Mayoral election had Khan leading by 22% and he won by 11%. There may be some reasons for that in that Hall's core vote strategy probably did her some good in terms of differential turnout in what is a low turnout election, and it was not a "change" election in that Khan had been in for eight years.
However, it was a fairly big polling miss and I do have a suspicion YouGov and others not adjusting for "don't knows" are overestimating the Tory lead. That said, they were closer for Houchen (whilst still slightly underestimating his position) and actually projected a narrow Street win rather than narrow loss.
3 other pollsters were pretty close for the London mayoral result.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People who make phone calls through their car stereo, so everyone in the street can hear half a conversation.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
I wonder if the next successful iteration of the Tory party, probably mid 2030s, will be pretty green and even woke by todays standards with an emphasis on health and small business. Whilst that sounds far fetched it is also hard to see alternatives, barring Labour self harming which is always a runner.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Yes, and indeed the Tories may well have destroyed themselves as a brand for the future by essentially appearing this way.
I actually think there’s a good chance that when a right wing party takes power in the UK again it could be a rebranded outfit - maybe the legal successor to the Tory/Conservative and Unionist Party but not using the name.
NewCUP
FWIW, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that you're wrong. The next successful leader will have at least some new logo/branding that breaks with the past (as Cameron's did with the Oak tree, before some vandal sprayed it red white and blue) and a new message that's all about green shit and hugging hoodies or at least workers!
ETA: Ah, Cameron was the 'some vandal' and now it's blue. A blue tree - makes perfect sense
Too what end? I assume that the government can't resolve the dispute now we are in the election period? So naked politics from them? I'm not sure Starmer will have much leeway to pay them what they want.
It is political and the strikes have been political from the start. ASLEF is about money, our sainted NHS workers is about politics.
Only two weeks ago the govt were exploring mediation with them.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People who make phone calls through their car stereo, so everyone in the street can hear half a conversation.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795767634283094384?s=19 Whatever the rights and wrongs of Abbotts behaviour, all that's left is images of someone who has been broken by Starmer and now harangued by journalists. If the election were remotely close this would have been disastrous for Labour. The callers to LBC last night might be described as apoplectic. Rally at Hackney Town Hall tonight. The story will bubble on but get lost in the result
The interesting thing is that 5 years ago Starmer seemed happy to suggest that she should be home secretary and Jeremy Corbyn PM. His inability at the time to understand that he was surrounded by alleged antisemites suggests he has all the awareness, or perhaps all the honesty, of Paula Vennells.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Yes I am constantly surprised at what a broad swathe of people in my (late 40s) age bracket seem to utterly detest the Conservative party. It goes way beyond the usual suspects among the tofu eating wokerati, who are I admit over represented in my friendship group. I think they have irredemably Ratnered their brand, about half by Brexit, the rest just general incompetence and unpleasantness.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
DKs only 15% in that poll. Not many to break back to the Tories there.
20% of Tory 2019 voters don'r know who they will vote for. that's a significant percentage but also shows that the Con 20% figure looks correct...
The assumption that those undecided Tory 2019 voters (19% not 20%) will throw Sunak a significant lifeline is based upon a number of questionable premises: 1. That they will vote at all. Yet "undecided" in the context of Tory 2019 voters may well mean "I haven't decided whether I'm going to bother to vote at all this time", which is what we're hearing a lot of on the doorstep. The 5% of 2019 Tories who have already decided that they won't vote at all is remarkably small and I think stands to be added to significantly. 2. That those who do vote will all eventually decide to stick with the Tories - even though of the 2019 Tories who have decided only 48% will still vote Tory, and I can't see how the undecideds ending up voting Tory again will beat that figure by much. 3. That none will eventually decide to switch to Labour - even though of those 2019 Tories who have decided, 19% have switched to Labour. 4. That the number of Labour and LD undecideds who could end up voting Labour is negligible so it won't do much to offset the Tories who decide. Yet the proportions aren't negligible, at 9% and 13% respectively, applied to bases which when combined are not much smaller than the Tory base. Quite remarkably, of 2019 LDs who have decided, 41% are already voting Labour.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Starmer now states Abbott not banned from standing
Interesting. Labour are determined to spin this out as long as possible. There must be a reason for this, because it's all a bit useless seeming. Perhaps they have decided that overall it won't harm them and it diverts attention from something else for a few days. (I wonder what)
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
DKs only 15% in that poll. Not many to break back to the Tories there.
20% of Tory 2019 voters don'r know who they will vote for. that's a significant percentage but also shows that the Con 20% figure looks correct...
The assumption that those undecided Tory 2019 voters (19% not 20%) will throw Sunak a significant lifeline is based upon a number of questionable premises: 1. That they will vote at all. Yet "undecided" in the context of Tory 2019 voters may well mean "I haven't decided whether I'm going to bother to vote at all this time", which is what we're hearing a lot of on the doorstep. The 5% of 2019 Tories who have already decided that they won't vote at all is remarkably small and I think stands to be added to significantly. 2. That those who do vote will all eventually decide to stick with the Tories - even though of the 2019 Tories who have decided only 48% will still vote Tory, and I can't see how the undecideds ending up voting Tory again will beat that figure by much. 3. That none will eventually decide to switch to Labour - even though of those 2019 Tories who have decided, 19% have switched to Labour. 4. That the number of Labour and LD undecideds who could end up voting Labour is negligible so it won't do much to offset the Tories who decide. Yet the proportions aren't negligible, at 9% and 13% respectively, applied to bases which when combined are not much smaller than the Tory base. Quite remarkably, of 2019 LDs who have decided, 41% are already voting Labour.
Agree, but I still would not go overboard on backing the Tories really to get only the seats they get in YouGov polling (well under 100) if all this is true.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Old people who don't say thank you when you hold the door for them/make room on the pavement.
Starmer now states Abbott not banned from standing
Interesting. Labour are determined to spin this out as long as possible. There must be a reason for this, because it's all a bit useless seeming. Perhaps they have decided that overall it won't harm them and it diverts attention from something else for a few days. (I wonder what)
I suspect she's agreed to stand down if Starmer abases himself by saying what his team briefed yesterday is, in fact, not true The power play is for her to say she's happy she can now stand
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
I’m enjoying how Partridge this list is getting.
...and the misuse of the word "like" should have fixed penalty notices applied.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Old people who don't say thank you when you hold the door for them/make room on the pavement.
Women who accuse you of being sexist when you do then cry when you slam it in their face
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
Can we have jail time for PB posters who get upset by the way other people talk, eat, listen to music or any other activity that they personally don't like?
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
We should add people that say new-cue-ler when they mean nuclear to the list of those that should have the key thrown away..
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
Intent is difficult to judge. She apologised quite quickly - and maybe she was being truthful about it being an early draft. But I am sceptical.
The letter said this in relation to prejudice against Jews, travellers and the Irish: “It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism”
That is a terrible view. I am a ginger and have been picked on at school (and still see and her slurs against redheads in the media). But at no point would I consider those minor barbs akin to those suffered by Jews, travellers and the Irish for simply existing. Which is what the letter seems to suggests. What a ridiculous view. I appreciate that there is an argument about where race begins (and so racism - I don’t buy it, but there is an argument), but I am certain my experience as ginger is not the same as those with the characteristics noted at the top of the letter.
Each racial characteristic that suffers from prejudices has its own history of disgraceful behaviour. For blacks I would see slavery as that key original crime. For Jews the holocaust. You could play the game of rating each other’s past suffering and playing it off against each other. But what would be the point of that? I also think different forms of racism manifest themselves in the modern world in different ways. But I think I could say that without doing down different types of racism. I would have hoped that Diane Abbot could have done that too.
You need to ask yourself the question if you had a forced choice between being Jewish or black in this country, which would you choose? If one is obviously preferable to the other, she surely has a point
No one is putting armed guards outside “black” schools in Britain
There are security guards outside at least one of the schools round here and it is neither Black nor Jewish. One of the Black churches near where I used to work had two ginormous bouncers outside during services. I'm not sure what your point is but doubt it is well-founded.
Buy is it a much more common thing around mostly Jewish schools? I suspect it is.
The abuse and racist graffiti is so common that the government subsidises the security guards outside various Jewish cultural institutions.
Been going on for years.
The sons of a Rabbi I met run a brilliant graffiti removal service. They’ve had the practise... They did a nice job on a wall outside a Sikh temple not far from me.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Criminalising "haitch" would win them the goodwill of the drumbashers in the DUP.
Can we have jail time for PB posters who get upset by the way other people talk, eat, listen to music or any other activity that they personally don't like?
Only if we can have the stocks for people who get in the way of my miserable old man cosplaying/fast incoming reality
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Haitch is absolutely the worst but having lived in the US I find it hard to remember in real time if it's schedule or skedule and find myself using the two interchangeably, sorry.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
We should add people that say new-cue-ler when they mean nuclear to the list of those that should have the key thrown away..
Can we have jail time for PB posters who get upset by the way other people talk, eat, listen to music or any other activity that they personally don't like?
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
I’m enjoying how Partridge this list is getting.
...and the misuse of the word "like" should have fixed penalty notices applied.
And the phrase "fam"
I saw a video on X of a young chap in an altercation with Plod, his first comment "Wassup Fam"
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Haitch is absolutely the worst but having lived in the US I find it hard to remember in real time if it's schedule or skedule and find myself using the two interchangeably, sorry.
It's skedule, they teach you that at shool. No, wait.........
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
That's the Irish pronunciation because of the 'hidden vowel rules.'
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
We should add people that say new-cue-ler when they mean nuclear to the list of those that should have the key thrown away..
Es-cu-lator
People who have gotten it into their heads that there's something wrong with the word "gotten".
Can we have jail time for PB posters who get upset by the way other people talk, eat, listen to music or any other activity that they personally don't like?
As long as I don't have to share the cell with anyone who does any of those things, so be it.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
We should add people that say new-cue-ler when they mean nuclear to the list of those that should have the key thrown away..
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
I’m enjoying how Partridge this list is getting.
...and the misuse of the word "like" should have fixed penalty notices applied.
And the phrase "fam"
I saw a video on X of a young chap in an altercation with Plod, his first comment "Wassup Fam"
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
I must admit to the latter once or twice, although only because it triggered Ishmael as he seemed somewhat obsessed with some of my posts so it was worth it to get under his rather thin skin.
Mind you I also used "with nana and the angles" as well.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
That's the Irish pronunciation because of the 'hidden vowel rules.'
So you've just said Irish people are morons...
Again?! I did that before breakfast as usual today. Now I'm going to look bad
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
I must admit to the latter once or twice, although only because it triggered Ishmael as he seemed somewhat obsessed with some of my posts so it was worth it to get under his rather thin skin.
Mind you I also used "with nana and the angles" as well.
Your gran is with 6th century East Coast invaders?!
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
I’m enjoying how Partridge this list is getting.
...and the misuse of the word "like" should have fixed penalty notices applied.
And the phrase "fam"
I saw a video on X of a young chap in an altercation with Plod, his first comment "Wassup Fam"
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Criminalising "haitch" would win them the goodwill of the drumbashers in the DUP.
Banning REEsearch would be good though.
I use REEsearch for the noun and reSEARCH for the verb. "I had to reSEARCH various eras of Mongolian pottery. That REEsearch was published in April."
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
Intent is difficult to judge. She apologised quite quickly - and maybe she was being truthful about it being an early draft. But I am sceptical.
The letter said this in relation to prejudice against Jews, travellers and the Irish: “It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism”
That is a terrible view. I am a ginger and have been picked on at school (and still see and her slurs against redheads in the media). But at no point would I consider those minor barbs akin to those suffered by Jews, travellers and the Irish for simply existing. Which is what the letter seems to suggests. What a ridiculous view. I appreciate that there is an argument about where race begins (and so racism - I don’t buy it, but there is an argument), but I am certain my experience as ginger is not the same as those with the characteristics noted at the top of the letter.
Each racial characteristic that suffers from prejudices has its own history of disgraceful behaviour. For blacks I would see slavery as that key original crime. For Jews the holocaust. You could play the game of rating each other’s past suffering and playing it off against each other. But what would be the point of that? I also think different forms of racism manifest themselves in the modern world in different ways. But I think I could say that without doing down different types of racism. I would have hoped that Diane Abbot could have done that too.
You need to ask yourself the question if you had a forced choice between being Jewish or black in this country, which would you choose? If one is obviously preferable to the other, she surely has a point
No one is putting armed guards outside “black” schools in Britain
There are security guards outside at least one of the schools round here and it is neither Black nor Jewish. One of the Black churches near where I used to work had two ginormous bouncers outside during services. I'm not sure what your point is but doubt it is well-founded.
Buy is it a much more common thing around mostly Jewish schools? I suspect it is.
The abuse and racist graffiti is so common that the government subsidises the security guards outside various Jewish cultural institutions.
Been going on for years.
The sons of a Rabbi I met run a brilliant graffiti removal service. They’ve had the practise... They did a nice job on a wall outside a Sikh temple not far from me.
My kids’ school, which is Jewish, has a visible police presence posted at pickup and dropoff still, sadly.
Tbh never any graffiti or anything like that; if anything the various local communities (unusually my area is about 10% Jewish and 10% Muslim, plus the usual patchwork of Christian denominations and the atheist behemoth) have always got on very well and continue to do so.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795767634283094384?s=19 Whatever the rights and wrongs of Abbotts behaviour, all that's left is images of someone who has been broken by Starmer and now harangued by journalists. If the election were remotely close this would have been disastrous for Labour. The callers to LBC last night might be described as apoplectic. Rally at Hackney Town Hall tonight. The story will bubble on but get lost in the result
I agree. I had absolutely no time for Abbot but her treatment has been absolutely appalling. Starmer and his ilk have proved to be every much as factional as the Corbynites were at their worst. Instead of showing that he's better than them he's just showed that he's cut of the same cloth.
The consequences won't be felt in this election but in the next one in four or five years time.
I'm doing a small data gathering exercise on cycle parking at National Trust properties - generally fairly primitive and not very common, but they are geared up for motorised visitors and are trying to be more comprehensive. So fair play to the NT for starting on the journey - it always starts from here.
This is the "Cyclists Welcome" sign at Dunham Massey near Manchester.
It's been there for some time, and the cyclist illustrated is as plump as Boris Johnson.
They have the normal "come without a motor vehicle and get 10% off". Here on production of a cycle helmet.
Dunham Massey is close to Trans-Pennine Trail and Bridgewater Canal. Cycling in the park is for under 5s only but make use of the bike park in the main car park and enjoy a stroll across the park and gardens. As a thank you for visiting car-free, you're invited to enjoy 10% off in the café and restaurant on the production of a bike helmet.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Criminalising "haitch" would win them the goodwill of the drumbashers in the DUP.
Banning REEsearch would be good though.
True enough. Apparently it used to be a way of discovering which side of the divide you came from in NI. As I come from the papists I should really start saying haitch lol. I just cannot bring myself to though!
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
That's the Irish pronunciation because of the 'hidden vowel rules.'
'Sunak denies Conservatives wasted police time with Rayner complaints, saying 'police are independent of government' Rishi Sunak has denied that Conservative calls to investigate Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner had been a waste of police time.
Speaking from Cornwall, the prime minister said “the police are independent of government. It’s for them to decide, you know, who and what they’re investigating”.
On 19 May the chief constable of the police force examining the claims, Stephen Watson, told the Guardian it was a letter from the Conservative deputy chair, James Daly, that led to his force reversing an initial decision not to investigate.'
Haw!
Simple solution - to reverse the impact James Daly should be arrested for a few hours to be interviewed regarding wasting police time.
I'm sure he will be in Manchester at some point...
BTW, IANAE but how much further do such things have to go to become harassment, in the criminal sense?
I'm doing a small data gathering exercise on cycle parking at National Trust properties - generally fairly primitive and not very common, but they are geared up for motorised visitors and are trying to be more comprehensive. So fair play to the NT for starting on the journey - it always starts from here.
This is the "Cyclists Welcome" sign at Dunham Massey near Manchester.
It's been there for some time, and the cyclist illustrated is as plump as Boris Johnson.
They have the normal "come without a motor vehicle and get 10% off". Here on production of a cycle helmet.
Dunham Massey is close to Trans-Pennine Trail and Bridgewater Canal. Cycling in the park is for under 5s only but make use of the bike park in the main car park and enjoy a stroll across the park and gardens. As a thank you for visiting car-free, you're invited to enjoy 10% off in the café and restaurant on the production of a bike helmet.
Not much cycle parking at DM but I always seem to find a spot to lock up. Quarry Bank (as well as being fantastic in general) is better.
Tbf most NT places geared to family visits will tend to have to also be geared to motorists. There’s no way I’d get my two to Dunham on two wheels from where I am.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
We should add people that say new-cue-ler when they mean nuclear to the list of those that should have the key thrown away..
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Must say though. The Geordie habit of using flat a sounds like the rest of the North, but then pronouncing plaster and master like they were raised in deepest Surrey irritates and bemuses in equal measure.
Can we have jail time for PB posters who get upset by the way other people talk, eat, listen to music or any other activity that they personally don't like?
As long as I don't have to share the cell with anyone who does any of those things, so be it.
Those discussions can be very revealing of how other people live/think/have learnt in life.
I remember someone on PB getting very upset by a lady calling her little girl Elspeth on the assumption that it was some sort of pretentious neologism (a reason which, in itself, I could sometimes sympathise with if it were true).
Which considerably surprised anyone from Scotland, N England, etc. etc. But that was a very benign example compared to many others on here.
I'm doing a small data gathering exercise on cycle parking at National Trust properties - generally fairly primitive and not very common, but they are geared up for motorised visitors and are trying to be more comprehensive. So fair play to the NT for starting on the journey - it always starts from here.
This is the "Cyclists Welcome" sign at Dunham Massey near Manchester.
It's been there for some time, and the cyclist illustrated is as plump as Boris Johnson.
They have the normal "come without a motor vehicle and get 10% off". Here on production of a cycle helmet.
Dunham Massey is close to Trans-Pennine Trail and Bridgewater Canal. Cycling in the park is for under 5s only but make use of the bike park in the main car park and enjoy a stroll across the park and gardens. As a thank you for visiting car-free, you're invited to enjoy 10% off in the café and restaurant on the production of a bike helmet.
At my local NT property Hardwick Hall, the cycle stands are built out of horse fencing, as if all people who ride cycles are straight out of a Spaghetti Western. *
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
The former seems much rarer these days than it used to be. I’ve seen more people vomit or have sex (not at the same time) on public transport than play music out loud.”, in recent times.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
I guess they could vomit and have sex at the same time, depends what they are up to.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
That's the Irish pronunciation because of the 'hidden vowel rules.'
So you've just said Irish people are morons...
And Geordies.
And Gaelic-influenced Scots Highlanders and Islanders.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
There's a Mark Steel's in Town focussing on that. Apparently, there is no agreement even in Shrewsbury. Shroosbry, Shrowsbry and Shoosbry are all used.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
Intent is difficult to judge. She apologised quite quickly - and maybe she was being truthful about it being an early draft. But I am sceptical.
The letter said this in relation to prejudice against Jews, travellers and the Irish: “It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism”
That is a terrible view. I am a ginger and have been picked on at school (and still see and her slurs against redheads in the media). But at no point would I consider those minor barbs akin to those suffered by Jews, travellers and the Irish for simply existing. Which is what the letter seems to suggests. What a ridiculous view. I appreciate that there is an argument about where race begins (and so racism - I don’t buy it, but there is an argument), but I am certain my experience as ginger is not the same as those with the characteristics noted at the top of the letter.
Each racial characteristic that suffers from prejudices has its own history of disgraceful behaviour. For blacks I would see slavery as that key original crime. For Jews the holocaust. You could play the game of rating each other’s past suffering and playing it off against each other. But what would be the point of that? I also think different forms of racism manifest themselves in the modern world in different ways. But I think I could say that without doing down different types of racism. I would have hoped that Diane Abbot could have done that too.
You need to ask yourself the question if you had a forced choice between being Jewish or black in this country, which would you choose? If one is obviously preferable to the other, she surely has a point
No one is putting armed guards outside “black” schools in Britain
There are security guards outside at least one of the schools round here and it is neither Black nor Jewish. One of the Black churches near where I used to work had two ginormous bouncers outside during services. I'm not sure what your point is but doubt it is well-founded.
Buy is it a much more common thing around mostly Jewish schools? I suspect it is.
It is some weeks since being driven past two local Jewish schools but I could not see any security guards, no. It may be they have hotlines to the police or other special security arrangements.
We should not blow this out of proportion. There are weekly protest marches about Gaza, and have been for months, but they are marches not riots.
Every Jewish school has a highly sophisticated system of security. But the debate is pointless. It doesn't matter whether blacks or Jews face more racism. They both have done and dismissing either is ugly. Diane Abbott has not only done this, but also said multiple racist things over the years. She is an appalling bigot and has rightly been rejected by Starmer. It took Labour way too long to do that.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Why don't you like "I gave 110%"?
It's meaningless. If you gave 110% then what is the denominator in this fraction?
So are the Tories proposing to close down Classics, PPE or Golf Course Management? I think we should be told.
The former of your list might stop cretins like Boris Johnson from getting into Oxford.
Joking aside this is another cringing own goal from Sunak. What they are effectively saying is that if you don't go to a "top" university and study STEM you are a thicky, and seeing as most of what snobs call "new universities" have grown in size in recent years you can bet there is quite a large contingent of young people who hate the Tories all the more now.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
Is that not the right way to say it? I’d learnt that ‘Shrowsbury’ was a bit of an affectation and not actually how locals say it.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
Too what end? I assume that the government can't resolve the dispute now we are in the election period? So naked politics from them? I'm not sure Starmer will have much leeway to pay them what they want.
It is political and the strikes have been political from the start. ASLEF is about money, our sainted NHS workers is about politics.
Only two weeks ago the govt were exploring mediation with them.
I'm doing a small data gathering exercise on cycle parking at National Trust properties - generally fairly primitive and not very common, but they are geared up for motorised visitors and are trying to be more comprehensive. So fair play to the NT for starting on the journey - it always starts from here.
This is the "Cyclists Welcome" sign at Dunham Massey near Manchester.
It's been there for some time, and the cyclist illustrated is as plump as Boris Johnson.
They have the normal "come without a motor vehicle and get 10% off". Here on production of a cycle helmet.
Dunham Massey is close to Trans-Pennine Trail and Bridgewater Canal. Cycling in the park is for under 5s only but make use of the bike park in the main car park and enjoy a stroll across the park and gardens. As a thank you for visiting car-free, you're invited to enjoy 10% off in the café and restaurant on the production of a bike helmet.
It looks very low down?
There is a lovely 35 mile loop I do from my house which passes by this way - Bridgewater Canal, Transpennine Trail, some quiet lanes, Arley Hall, some more quiet lanes, Tatton Park, some more quiet lanes, Swan with Two Nicks, Dunham Massey, more quiet lanes, Bridgewater Canal. I did it last weekend and can't have passed more than 10 cars until I got to Dunham Massey. The road past the NT site at Dunham Massey was actually the busiest bit - I've never been entirely clear whether you can cycle through the NT land, so have never attempted to do so. Would certainly cut out that last bit of traffic.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
The Tories really have been genius at sticking all the blame for the PO scandal on Davey. They’ve failed completely to do a similar job on Keir for having beer and curry or Angela dodging CGT, but this is one of their undoubted blame-deflection successes.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
There's a Mark Steel's in Town focussing on that. Apparently, there is no agreement even in Shrewsbury. Shroosbry, Shrowsbry and Shoosbry are all used.
The Welsh should take it back and then everyone can call it Amwythig.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Young (and other under 50) people are not anti-conservative, they are anti this chaotic government, its attacks on young people economically and its involvement in the culture wars. In many ways they are quite conservative, hard working, entrepreneurial, healthier lifestyles and wanting to conserve our environment.
Exactly. Among my peers the noticeable thing is not that there's an echo chamber of left-wing opinion but that those who in theory should be voting Tory or persuadable - good job, family, mortgage - are absolutely dead against them and would not be seen dead voting for them. Anecdotal, of course, but have quite broad acquaintances and am in a traditionally Tory bit of the country near London.
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
Hello hello hello hello hello hello hello. Sorry just slipped into your echo chamber chamber chamber.
There is polling evidence for the Brexit issue, it's dropped in salience according to the trends in the YouGov "what are the top three issues" question, but it's dropped much more among Leave voters than Remain voters. From memory 9% of Leavers think it's one of the top three, 29% of Remainers do. That could lead to Leave voters feeling that Brexit's a done thing and moving on to vote on a wider range of issues and some Remain voters still feeling hurt over the referendum vote and not touching the Tories with a bargepole.
I am probably going against the general flow, but I voted LD in the last two GEs because of Brexit. I won't be this time because I believe Ed Davy knew a lot more about the PO scandal than he and his supporters claim, and I am genuinely terrified of a Labour landslide. I don't like the Tories as they are now, but the Labour Party is the party of the public sector and nothing else ( as for the 150 signatures of the so-called business people/useful idiots, this should be put in context of there being four million limited companies in UK - do the maths!)
So you'll be voting for the party that eventually knew a lot more about the PO scandal than Ed Davey ever did, and yet for a decade connived to try and put the issue and compensation into the long grass until ITV made it into prime TV news this year.
Both major parties knew lots and shame on them. Only one party has a party leader who was PO minister for two years and has weaselled his way out of scrutiny. I suspect he probably coached Vennells.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Why don't you like "I gave 110%"?
It's meaningless. If you gave 110% then what is the denominator in this fraction?
Whilst I agree with its general misuse, I have to be a pedant and point out that it is perfectly possible to give 110% compared to what you managed last time.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
I dgaf really about how folk pronounce their words; a lot of it is really just snobbery.
I do dislike two linguistic tends though - one which you reflect above in ‘myself’ etc, a kind of hypercorrective formalism which is needlessly obfuscatory (almost as much as words like ‘obfuscatory’).
The other is the unearned familiarity of marketingspeak, which is probably my chief aesthetic problem with AI (which has borrowed this wholesale); the tone is always utterly banal.
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Does Labour actually need to formally bar Diane Abbott from standing? Right now it's in the gift of the NEC, all they need to say is that Abbott is welcome to apply for the selection and then give it to Moema or Bramble. Am I being too cynical?
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Why don't you like "I gave 110%"?
It's meaningless. If you gave 110% then what is the denominator in this fraction?
Ah but wait for the manifestos - a little skirt for every table leg, jail time for elbows on tables, death penalty for vegans, mandatory Union Jack blankets for conceiving British Babies etc etc
Jail time for people who play their music on public transport without headphones, or people who chew their food with their mouths open.
A votewinner for me.
People that say "haitch" instead of aitch, or skedule instead of schedule. Absolute vote winners.
Fil um instead of film. Morons And people who say 'passed' instead of died
My nan was a spiritualist so always said 'passed' and I've taken that on from her along with calling Shrewsbury 'Shroosbry'.
I am generally quite relaxed about how other people speak but there are two things that infuriate me: one is the inappropriate use of "myself", "yourself" etc, and the other is references to percentages greater than 100 in phrases such "I gave 110%". People who do this should be killed in some cruel and unusual fashion.
Why don't you like "I gave 110%"?
It's meaningless. If you gave 110% then what is the denominator in this fraction?
It's just hyperbole like saying "I'm starving" or LMAO. I mean I guess you aren't really in favour torturing people to death?
Comments
In other words, I feel no desire to go into a shop again!
The polls bear that out. As for the reasons, it's economics (even those who have done well feel hard pressed, will have battled through high rents and static pay and have friends worse off) combined with image.
Brexit has obviously shifted to the back burner as an issue, but it's a key inflection point where a lot of younger (now getting on for middle aged) people who might have been tempted into the Tory camp in the past for financial reasons and to be left alone, thought "OK, this party really doesn't like me and my values". And the culture war stuff since and endless attempts to "own the libs" and slag off the young has crystalised that.
As people used to say with Corbyn, if you look like you hate the country, don't expect it to vote for you. At the moment the Tories look like they hate anyone Under 50 who is more liberal than the Daily Mail comments section.
So don't expect them to vote for you - and that doesn't just include 'woke' students but management consultants who would normally be quite right-wing on policy, but won't vote for a party who sound like they want to turn Britain into a 1950s theme park.
I've an idea. How about we ask everyone to tell us who they prefer, as a matter of civic pride. We could open up rooms around the country to allow them to give their views secretly. We could allocate a day for it so that we capture a consistent point-in-time view. A Thursday in early June maybe?
I actually think there’s a good chance that when a right wing party takes power in the UK again it could be a rebranded outfit - maybe the legal successor to the Tory/Conservative and Unionist Party but not using the name.
A votewinner for me.
The latter, like the poor, will always be with us.
FWIW, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that you're wrong. The next successful leader will have at least some new logo/branding that breaks with the past (as Cameron's did with the Oak tree, before some vandal sprayed it red white and blue) and a new message that's all about green shit and hugging hoodies or at least workers!
ETA: Ah, Cameron was the 'some vandal' and now it's blue. A blue tree - makes perfect sense
1. That they will vote at all. Yet "undecided" in the context of Tory 2019 voters may well mean "I haven't decided whether I'm going to bother to vote at all this time", which is what we're hearing a lot of on the doorstep. The 5% of 2019 Tories who have already decided that they won't vote at all is remarkably small and I think stands to be added to significantly.
2. That those who do vote will all eventually decide to stick with the Tories - even though of the 2019 Tories who have decided only 48% will still vote Tory, and I can't see how the undecideds ending up voting Tory again will beat that figure by much.
3. That none will eventually decide to switch to Labour - even though of those 2019 Tories who have decided, 19% have switched to Labour.
4. That the number of Labour and LD undecideds who could end up voting Labour is negligible so it won't do much to offset the Tories who decide. Yet the proportions aren't negligible, at 9% and 13% respectively, applied to bases which when combined are not much smaller than the Tory base. Quite remarkably, of 2019 LDs who have decided, 41% are already voting Labour.
And people who say 'passed' instead of died
The power play is for her to say she's happy she can now stand
Been going on for years.
The sons of a Rabbi I met run a brilliant graffiti removal service. They’ve had the practise... They did a nice job on a wall outside a Sikh temple not far from me.
Banning REEsearch would be good though.
https://x.com/AnimarchyYT/status/1795642275634241640?t=N-P_FVVr2h-5w4GSGCHcGw&s=19
I saw a video on X of a young chap in an altercation with Plod, his first comment "Wassup Fam"
So you've just said Irish people are morons...
Mind you I also used "with nana and the angles" as well.
"I had to reSEARCH various eras of Mongolian pottery. That REEsearch was published in April."
Tbh never any graffiti or anything like that; if anything the various local communities (unusually my area is about 10% Jewish and 10% Muslim, plus the usual patchwork of Christian denominations and the atheist behemoth) have always got on very well and continue to do so.
The risk is nutters from outside.
The consequences won't be felt in this election but in the next one in four or five years time.
Give him some percentage voteshares and he'll give you some seat numbers back.
I'm doing a small data gathering exercise on cycle parking at National Trust properties - generally fairly primitive and not very common, but they are geared up for motorised visitors and are trying to be more comprehensive. So fair play to the NT for starting on the journey - it always starts from here.
This is the "Cyclists Welcome" sign at Dunham Massey near Manchester.
It's been there for some time, and the cyclist illustrated is as plump as Boris Johnson.
They have the normal "come without a motor vehicle and get 10% off". Here on production of a cycle helmet.
Dunham Massey is close to Trans-Pennine Trail and Bridgewater Canal. Cycling in the park is for under 5s only but make use of the bike park in the main car park and enjoy a stroll across the park and gardens.
As a thank you for visiting car-free, you're invited to enjoy 10% off in the café and restaurant on the production of a bike helmet.
https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1795781605723697534?s=61
Tbf most NT places geared to family visits will tend to have to also be geared to motorists. There’s no way I’d get my two to Dunham on two wheels from where I am.
The Geordie habit of using flat a sounds like the rest of the North, but then pronouncing plaster and master like they were raised in deepest Surrey irritates and bemuses in equal measure.
I remember someone on PB getting very upset by a lady calling her little girl Elspeth on the assumption that it was some sort of pretentious neologism (a reason which, in itself, I could sometimes sympathise with if it were true).
Which considerably surprised anyone from Scotland, N England, etc. etc. But that was a very benign example compared to many others on here.
* Spin left
https://www.google.com/maps/@53.1665986,-1.3072316,2a,75y,276.26h,90.98t,356.47r/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sslt7khQaAQfGTnqKjXT1Gw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?entry=ttu
Shroosbry, Shrowsbry and Shoosbry are all used.
Joking aside this is another cringing own goal from Sunak. What they are effectively saying is that if you don't go to a "top" university and study STEM you are a thicky, and seeing as most of what snobs call "new universities" have grown in size in recent years you can bet there is quite a large contingent of young people who hate the Tories all the more now.
Btw my great-nan was a spiritualist and was a noted seance leader and whatnot, travelling up and down the country. My understanding is that she genuinely believed in it all, though tbh who knows - some recent family history undertaken by my great-uncle has uncovered that there’s a strong fantasist streak in my lineage (I prefer to think I’ve inherited my dad’s side’s downrightness).
“Can’t run the NHS”
“In hock to the Unions”
There is a lovely 35 mile loop I do from my house which passes by this way - Bridgewater Canal, Transpennine Trail, some quiet lanes, Arley Hall, some more quiet lanes, Tatton Park, some more quiet lanes, Swan with Two Nicks, Dunham Massey, more quiet lanes, Bridgewater Canal. I did it last weekend and can't have passed more than 10 cars until I got to Dunham Massey. The road past the NT site at Dunham Massey was actually the busiest bit - I've never been entirely clear whether you can cycle through the NT land, so have never attempted to do so. Would certainly cut out that last bit of traffic.
I do dislike two linguistic tends though - one which you reflect above in ‘myself’ etc, a kind of hypercorrective formalism which is needlessly obfuscatory (almost as much as words like ‘obfuscatory’).
The other is the unearned familiarity of marketingspeak, which is probably my chief aesthetic problem with AI (which has borrowed this wholesale); the tone is always utterly banal.