Knighton's a good place for Davey to go, most of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe has been a Lib Dem seat before and their best chance to get one seat back in Wales.
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
Kind of astonishing - and I think leads to an IRL echo chamber as well as a virtual one, where working age people are very broadly anti-conservative, with pretty much 5/6 being LLG and probably leading to an assumption therefore that 'everyone' is voting the Tories out, from conversations over lunch breaks, pub after work and whatnot. Suspect a fair few people will end up being astonished that their seat has stayed blue come the 5th July.
Just announced: Sweden will donate a new military capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Package 16 will be the largest 🇸🇪 military aid package yet at €1,16bln. Sweden will donate Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to 🇺🇦. (1/6) https://x.com/PlJonson/status/1795717608010105241
If the west had done all this shit a year earlier, and decided to give F16s back when DuraAce first started saying it would be futile, Russia wouldn't be able to get within glide-bomb distance of the the front line. And would probably be thinking of giving up by now.
As it is, it's going to be another year at least.
Better late than never, though.
Belgium is currently saying that Ukraine shouldn't use the F-16s they are preparing to donate to them to shoot down Russian planes in Russian airspace, which is completely ignorant of the realities of the distances from the frontline that many aircraft are often operating at.
Sweden doubtless feels more confident about providing more equipment now that its membership of NATO has been finalised.
I'd love for Starmer to make a bold move to try and win ownership of security policy from the Tories by pledging more support for Ukraine (via spending on domestic armaments production). I do have a slight worry that Chancellor Reeves might want to cut down on UK spending in support of Ukraine.
Knighton's a good place for Davey to go, most of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe has been a Lib Dem seat before and their best chance to get one seat back in Wales.
I have a question. In Hitchin, there are two serving MPs running for election. I assume that has happened before, but I can't seem to find any articles about it on the internet. Can anyone think of any examples?
A few examples spring to mind.
Islington North 1983 Islington in the 1970s and early 1980s was fraught with differences between a left-wing activist base and centrist Labour MPs. All three Islington Labour MPs, Michael O'Halloran (North), John Grant (Central) and George Cunningham (South and Finsbury) defected to the SDP in 1981 and 1982. Unfortunately for them there were boundary changes in 1983 and Islington was reduced from three seats down to two with Central being split up between the others. Cunningham was selected for Islington South and Finsbury, to lose to Chris Smith by less than 400 votes, and Grant was selected for Islington North. This left O'Halloran out in the cold and he decided to quit the SDP and stand in North as Independent Labour. The split of the vote didn't cause Corbyn's win, Labour's 14,900 was still more than Grant's 8,200 and O'Halloran's 4,100 put together. This is the only one I can think of where two sitting MPs have stood against each other and they have both lost.
South Hams 1987 This election resulted in a change in the rules for retiring MPs. Willie Hamilton was the famously republican Labour MP for Central Fife, first elected to Parliament in 1950. Coming up to the 1987 election he was now 70 and looking to retire. But if you just stood down you didn't get the loss-of-office payment you got if you were defeated at the election. There was no chance of losing in Central Fife so Hamilton looked for the most hopeless seat possible and found it in South Hams in Devon. The local CLP adopted him as their candidate and he did quite well, increasing the Labour vote to over 5,000 but still a very distant 3rd behind the sitting MP Anthony Steen and the Liberal candidate. Hamilton got his extra payment, mission accomplished and moved into retirement. The rules were then changed to prevent that happening again, now MPs only get loss-of-office if they stand and lose in their own seat. This was something that annoyed Angela Smith (the Yorkshire one) when she moved via Change UK to the Liberal Democrats in 2019, the Lib Dems already had selected a candidate for her Penistone and Stockbridge seat so she fought and lost in Altrincham and Sale West without getting the loss-of-office payment.
Brent Central 2010 A more mundane one to finish and there must be several examples of this post boundary changes. Brent and Camden moved from five seats to four and so Sarah Teather, Liberal Democrat MP for Brent East, faced off against Dawn Butler, Labour MP for Brent South in the new Brent Central seat. Teather won, with 20,000 votes versus Butler's 18,600. Butler then won the seat after Teather stood down in 2015.
In 1983 Frank Hooley, MP for Sheffield Healey, was deselected by Labour and so ran in Stratford on Avon in order to get his redundancy payment, but he wasn't opposing a sitting MP there.
Ah, yes, "Hooley for Healy". As someone remarked at the time, it's better than Scunthorpe.
Too what end? I assume that the government can't resolve the dispute now we are in the election period? So naked politics from them? I'm not sure Starmer will have much leeway to pay them what they want.
Could have all been sorted by the Tories a year ago, using some of that tax avoidance money.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Missed opportunity that. He should have ridden straight through a cardboard box 'blue wall' like a low-budget Boris Johnson.
The LD activists in his path showing great optimism and courage though, in apparently believing him competent enough on a bike to keep them safe
He does have better balance on the bike than on the paddle board. It even looks like he might have ridden on a bicycle before.
Should we expect to see Davey on every form of human-powered transport during the election campaign? Do we need to prepare bingo sheets with scooter, skateboard, rowing boat, etc?
London St Pancras to Luton Airport Parkway goes from one gleaming new station to another gleaming new station
And it takes…. 24 minutes
And Luton Airport is ideally placed to serve an Oxford-Cambridge traffic corridor.
It’s now an excellent airport
Small enough to be easy to get around. Yet now modernised so it has nice shops and bars. Special gin bar! And ridiculously close to London’s best station - St Pancras. 24 minutes!l
😶😎
Does any other great global city have TWO airports less than 25 minutes by fast train from the centre?
We do moan about British infrastructure and HS2 is a planet sized calamity yet quietly we also get things done. Luton Airport is an example
Having said all that I will now probably suffer a 6 hour delay
I'm old enough to remember, just, when you were complaining that it took 24 mins. (And that doesn't count the Brio toy railway they call a shuttle.)
I’m not sure you do. Because it’s never been this quick I don’t think - it seems like they’ve cut out all stops between. But I might be wrong.
You missed the bit about having an ancient (diesel) train with the sandwiches from last night's passengers encrusted into the seat fabric.
Just seen Liz Truss is 1/4 to retain her seat. Obviously there's a lot of negativity towards her but it's one of the safest seats in the country. Surely that price is a gift?
Yes. It's a safe seat for good reason - lots of homeowners, strong support of Brexit and social conservatism.
I expect it would be one of the surviving 29 seats were the Tories to be reduced that far.
But as a Counterpoint, a former Turnip Talibanner is standing as an indy, Shepherd held on by 4% here in '97. If the national gap is Survationy she struggles. Under 20% gap she's safe imo
Edit - Pa and big Sis Woolie who are both Tory leaning/in sis case very Tory both despise her. To give a personal indication of at least 2 Norfolk Tories and the Truss I think she survives but I also think her 'new' profile post '22 will reignite some of the loathing when she was imposed by Dave
London St Pancras to Luton Airport Parkway goes from one gleaming new station to another gleaming new station
And it takes…. 24 minutes
And Luton Airport is ideally placed to serve an Oxford-Cambridge traffic corridor.
It’s now an excellent airport
Small enough to be easy to get around. Yet now modernised so it has nice shops and bars. Special gin bar! And ridiculously close to London’s best station - St Pancras. 24 minutes!l
😶😎
Does any other great global city have TWO airports less than 25 minutes by fast train from the centre?
We do moan about British infrastructure and HS2 is a planet sized calamity yet quietly we also get things done. Luton Airport is an example
Having said all that I will now probably suffer a 6 hour delay
We moan about British infrastructure, yes. And we wonder why London seems to get priority in almost every project and gets things done.
So move to london?! Get a nice airy garden flat in Primrose Hill or a little mews house near Portobello Road. It’s not like some clever trick we’re playing on everyone else - just get a nice gaff in The Smoke. Marylebone is also nice for townhouses or you could try a loft in Borough if you like that steampunk feel
Then you’d have all the benefits of London’s excellent infrastructure - plus galleries and restaurants and museums and the glorious parks
Derrrr. Yet you all decide to live in Newent or “Macclesfield” or Wick and then you moan
mews A middle class terrace.
Exactly. It’s middle class. Pleasant. Not beyond the dreams of avarice, not some aristocratic pile. Just buy a little 3 bed mews in Holland Park or Bayswater, then you too can enjoy the 24 minute rail journey to Luton airport instead of living in “the north” and moaning
Ugh no. Not some modern mews. This is one of the major problems of the day. Fake mews
You want something Victorian or even Georgian
Perhaps, but sometimes any mews is good mews.
Assuming that Starmer is going to get more homes built, doing a copy-improve insulation standards-paste of Holland Park to multiple locations near cities isn't the worst idea. If you must copy, at least copy something good.
(And I'd include the shabbier bits of green belt between Romford and the M25 in that.)
We don’t do enough confident pastiche in this country. You know, taking the ethos of Prince Charles and adding the ambition of Las Vegas.
Imagine a new town designed to have a maze-like faux-mediaeval centre with cobbled streets and a grand square, a handsome “Georgian” quarter of townhouses, solicitors offices and garden squares with a few mews, a leafy North-Oxford style Victorian gothic area on the routes out with stained glass mullioned red brick mansions and large parks, and suburbs of spacious “Edwardian” and 30s style estates. Topped off with some high rise modern apartments by the railway station.
I mean even the most hardcore, big state lefty must realise a) that Junior Doctors go on to earn zillions later in life; and that b) 35% just is a bonkers number to ask for, no matter whether it is or isn't justified rationally.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Yes, offer a discount coupon in return for answering the question, and you might get a decent response rate.
Missed opportunity that. He should have ridden straight through a cardboard box 'blue wall' like a low-budget Boris Johnson.
The LD activists in his path showing great optimism and courage though, in apparently believing him competent enough on a bike to keep them safe
He does have better balance on the bike than on the paddle board. It even looks like he might have ridden on a bicycle before.
Should we expect to see Davey on every form of human-powered transport during the election campaign? Do we need to prepare bingo sheets with scooter, skateboard, rowing boat, etc?
Sunak dribbling past cones, Starmer cooking salmon, Davey riding a bike. Who gets your vote?
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
Intent is difficult to judge. She apologised quite quickly - and maybe she was being truthful about it being an early draft. But I am sceptical.
The letter said this in relation to prejudice against Jews, travellers and the Irish: “It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism”
That is a terrible view. I am a ginger and have been picked on at school (and still see and her slurs against redheads in the media). But at no point would I consider those minor barbs akin to those suffered by Jews, travellers and the Irish for simply existing. Which is what the letter seems to suggests. What a ridiculous view. I appreciate that there is an argument about where race begins (and so racism - I don’t buy it, but there is an argument), but I am certain my experience as ginger is not the same as those with the characteristics noted at the top of the letter.
Each racial characteristic that suffers from prejudices has its own history of disgraceful behaviour. For blacks I would see slavery as that key original crime. For Jews the holocaust. You could play the game of rating each other’s past suffering and playing it off against each other. But what would be the point of that? I also think different forms of racism manifest themselves in the modern world in different ways. But I think I could say that without doing down different types of racism. I would have hoped that Diane Abbot could have done that too.
Tbh I do not think Abbott meant any of that. Sfaict she was saying only that racists can identify Black people at a glance but have to be told who are Jewish or Travellers or Irish. The problem is it is both banal and easily susceptible to misinterpretation, which are just two reasons why it should never have been written (or drafted) let alone sent.
It was a mistake on her part for sure but equally I don't think anyone on here can even imagine the sheer volume of shit that she has had to deal with for decades simply for having the temerity to be an outspoken black woman in public life. Personally I think she has been treated rather shabbily, a victim of Labour factionalism, blowback from Corbyn's disastrous leadership, and a country that is still in denial about the extent of anti-black prejudice.
Yes, she receives abuse, and that is terrible. It's odd, though, that she does not receive as much as people seem to think, or anywhere near as much as many other MPs. The Guardian should be crucified for their incorrect headline, and idiots still repeat its claim to this day.
By making Abbott out to be the most abused politician, they ignore the (often Tory, often male) politicians who receive more.
This isn’t the point, but I would love to see Rishi Sunak asked how he would feel if his daughters decided not to go to university because it wasn’t worth it.
I know what his answer would be, I’d just like to see his reaction
I mean even the most hardcore, big state lefty must realise a) that Junior Doctors go on to earn zillions later in life; and that b) 35% just is a bonkers number to ask for, no matter whether it is or isn't justified rationally.
Doesn't matter. Pay the market (Aussie) wage or see the NHS collapse
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Would be fascinating to see the differences between the different supermarkets.
Suspect Tesco is the big-box bellwether. But would any of them break Tory atm? Waitrose? Booths?
I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...
NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News
The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.
There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
Hopium.
"No, it can't be true. I can't be so massively disconnected from what most people think.
The polls must all be wrong."
YouGov today Baxters to Tories 29 seats. The real puzzle is who is disconnected from what? Am I disconnected because I don't think this or something a bit like it will happen despite the evidence? "It can't be true" (though I don't mind if it is) is running through a multitude of PB minds.
I doubt Baxters model can cope with the current levels of Tory support, it's a given that there are some constituencies that will only ever elect a conservative no matter how low their overall support and that's more than 29, circa 100 feels a more likely rock bottom. It's also unlikely to be able to account for voter confusion over which party is the realistic challenger, voters won't be helped there by misinformation, whether that is deliberate bias or poor analysis.
Yeah, if your model is telling you "29 tory seats" you should be suspecting "model has been pushed outside its valid range" rather than "historically unprecedented wipeout incoming". It *could* be the latter, but the former is more likely to be what's going on.
I think 29 seats is a reasonable prediction for vote shares of 47-20 with FPTP.
Remember that in 2010, the Lib Dems received 23% of the vote, were only 6pp behind Labour and only 13.1pp behind the Tories, but won only 57 seats - and that only thanks to two decades of local campaigning to concentrate their vote enough to win seats.
If the Tories really do end up 27pp behind then it is almost inevitable that FPTP will produce something approaching a wipeout.
It's going to be hard to predict exactly what happens, the precedents don't really help us.
Attlee's 1945 landslide was based on a twelve point lead.
Thatcher beat Foot by fifteen percent.
Blair beat Major by twelve points and Hague by about nine.
We simply don't know what FPTP does at a lead in the high teens, let alone the twenties. But it's unlikely to be pretty.
What were the percentages in Canada when the Conservatives were wiped out? I’m too lazy to look them up myself!
16%. Reform only got nineteen, but it was much more efficient. One of RefUK's problems is not really having a geographic base. Worse, to the extent that they do (Kent to Essex to Lincolnshire), it's where the Conservatives are also most likely to survive.
Thanks. Must say I think Suffolk is beginning to look a lot Green-er than Gammoney.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Would be fascinating to see the differences between the different supermarkets.
Suspect Tesco is the big-box bellwether. But would any of them break Tory atm? Waitrose? Booths?
That's the worst result amongst this age group I've see yet. Equal third with Reform.
... but still ahead of the Lib Dems. Lol.
Lib Dems Labour are interchangeable. They're just Labour with a clown in charge
Excuse me @Roger LDs and Lab are not interchangeable. We are very different. To start with a lot less authoritarian. A lot more individual freedom rather than the state knows best.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Would be fascinating to see the differences between the different supermarkets.
Suspect Tesco is the big-box bellwether. But would any of them break Tory atm? Waitrose? Booths?
Plenty of rich lefties in my Waitrose.
Booths would break Lib Dem / Labour based on store location alone...
Just announced: Sweden will donate a new military capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Package 16 will be the largest 🇸🇪 military aid package yet at €1,16bln. Sweden will donate Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to 🇺🇦. (1/6) https://x.com/PlJonson/status/1795717608010105241
If the west had done all this shit a year earlier, and decided to give F16s back when DuraAce first started saying it would be futile, Russia wouldn't be able to get within glide-bomb distance of the the front line. And would probably be thinking of giving up by now.
As it is, it's going to be another year at least.
Better late than never, though.
Belgium is currently saying that Ukraine shouldn't use the F-16s they are preparing to donate to them to shoot down Russian planes in Russian airspace, which is completely ignorant of the realities of the distances from the frontline that many aircraft are often operating at.
Sweden doubtless feels more confident about providing more equipment now that its membership of NATO has been finalised.
I'd love for Starmer to make a bold move to try and win ownership of security policy from the Tories by pledging more support for Ukraine (via spending on domestic armaments production). I do have a slight worry that Chancellor Reeves might want to cut down on UK spending in support of Ukraine.
A man who once argued for Corbyn to be Prime Minister shouldn't be trusted with our national security at all.
He would sell the Ukranians out in five minutes flat if there were a few extra votes in it for him, just as he's sold out every other principle and most of the allies he once professed to have.
Missed opportunity that. He should have ridden straight through a cardboard box 'blue wall' like a low-budget Boris Johnson.
The LD activists in his path showing great optimism and courage though, in apparently believing him competent enough on a bike to keep them safe
He does have better balance on the bike than on the paddle board. It even looks like he might have ridden on a bicycle before.
Should we expect to see Davey on every form of human-powered transport during the election campaign? Do we need to prepare bingo sheets with scooter, skateboard, rowing boat, etc?
Sunak dribbling past cones, Starmer cooking salmon, Davey riding a bike. Who gets your vote?
If we see Davey in one of these, then I will research the Lib Dem candidate standing in my constituency and give them serious considerations.
Starmer would have to get to serious chocolate gateau levels to stay in the competition.
Just announced: Sweden will donate a new military capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Package 16 will be the largest 🇸🇪 military aid package yet at €1,16bln. Sweden will donate Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to 🇺🇦. (1/6) https://x.com/PlJonson/status/1795717608010105241
If the west had done all this shit a year earlier, and decided to give F16s back when DuraAce first started saying it would be futile, Russia wouldn't be able to get within glide-bomb distance of the the front line. And would probably be thinking of giving up by now.
As it is, it's going to be another year at least.
Better late than never, though.
Belgium is currently saying that Ukraine shouldn't use the F-16s they are preparing to donate to them to shoot down Russian planes in Russian airspace, which is completely ignorant of the realities of the distances from the frontline that many aircraft are often operating at.
Sweden doubtless feels more confident about providing more equipment now that its membership of NATO has been finalised.
I'd love for Starmer to make a bold move to try and win ownership of security policy from the Tories by pledging more support for Ukraine (via spending on domestic armaments production). I do have a slight worry that Chancellor Reeves might want to cut down on UK spending in support of Ukraine.
A man who once argued for Corbyn to be Prime Minister shouldn't be trusted with our national security at all.
He would sell the Ukranians out in five minutes flat if there were a few extra votes in it for him, just as he's sold out every other principle and most of the allies he once professed to have.
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
The Sun @TheSun · 21m ‘The Tories will destroy the party all by themselves - they don’t need Reform to help’, @Nigel_Farage blasts on #NeverMindTheBallots.
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
OTOH, would bring back the death penalty for the Sycamore Gap twats. Something to consider @CCHQ
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Would be fascinating to see the differences between the different supermarkets.
Suspect Tesco is the big-box bellwether. But would any of them break Tory atm? Waitrose? Booths?
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Would be fascinating to see the differences between the different supermarkets.
Suspect Tesco is the big-box bellwether. But would any of them break Tory atm? Waitrose? Booths?
Plenty of rich lefties in my Waitrose.
The local ones near me are all quite ‘Cheshire arriviste’ so would assume break blue.
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
'school educated'... as opposed to by governess / private tutor?
Just announced: Sweden will donate a new military capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Package 16 will be the largest 🇸🇪 military aid package yet at €1,16bln. Sweden will donate Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to 🇺🇦. (1/6) https://x.com/PlJonson/status/1795717608010105241
If the west had done all this shit a year earlier, and decided to give F16s back when DuraAce first started saying it would be futile, Russia wouldn't be able to get within glide-bomb distance of the the front line. And would probably be thinking of giving up by now.
As it is, it's going to be another year at least.
Better late than never, though.
Belgium is currently saying that Ukraine shouldn't use the F-16s they are preparing to donate to them to shoot down Russian planes in Russian airspace, which is completely ignorant of the realities of the distances from the frontline that many aircraft are often operating at.
Sweden doubtless feels more confident about providing more equipment now that its membership of NATO has been finalised.
I'd love for Starmer to make a bold move to try and win ownership of security policy from the Tories by pledging more support for Ukraine (via spending on domestic armaments production). I do have a slight worry that Chancellor Reeves might want to cut down on UK spending in support of Ukraine.
A man who once argued for Corbyn to be Prime Minister shouldn't be trusted with our national security at all.
He would sell the Ukranians out in five minutes flat if there were a few extra votes in it for him, just as he's sold out every other principle and most of the allies he once professed to have.
I suppose we shall just have to make sure that he doesn't think there are any votes in it for him, then.
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
OTOH, would bring back the death penalty for the Sycamore Gap twats. Something to consider @CCHQ
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
'school educated'... as opposed to by governess / private tutor?
I thought the distinction was required given the audience
'Sunak denies Conservatives wasted police time with Rayner complaints, saying 'police are independent of government' Rishi Sunak has denied that Conservative calls to investigate Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner had been a waste of police time.
Speaking from Cornwall, the prime minister said “the police are independent of government. It’s for them to decide, you know, who and what they’re investigating”.
On 19 May the chief constable of the police force examining the claims, Stephen Watson, told the Guardian it was a letter from the Conservative deputy chair, James Daly, that led to his force reversing an initial decision not to investigate.'
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
I have a friend who has been stuffed by Brexit in the most spectacular way and he is really really angry about it. He is voting Tory in a Tory/LD marginal. I have asked the obvious question, but he thinks all the parties were equally to blame.
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
'school educated'... as opposed to by governess / private tutor?
I thought the distinction was required given the audience
I read it as being in Pilton/Muirhouse/Granton and blinked ...
Missed opportunity that. He should have ridden straight through a cardboard box 'blue wall' like a low-budget Boris Johnson.
The LD activists in his path showing great optimism and courage though, in apparently believing him competent enough on a bike to keep them safe
He does have better balance on the bike than on the paddle board. It even looks like he might have ridden on a bicycle before.
Should we expect to see Davey on every form of human-powered transport during the election campaign? Do we need to prepare bingo sheets with scooter, skateboard, rowing boat, etc?
Sunak dribbling past cones, Starmer cooking salmon, Davey riding a bike. Who gets your vote?
If we see Davey in one of these, then I will research the Lib Dem candidate standing in my constituency and give them serious considerations.
Starmer would have to get to serious chocolate gateau levels to stay in the competition.
I've just come across a small business owner who is going to vote Green in protest to the Tories. Gen X, school educated, working class, employs about 10.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
OTOH, would bring back the death penalty for the Sycamore Gap twats. Something to consider @CCHQ
'Sunak denies Conservatives wasted police time with Rayner complaints, saying 'police are independent of government' Rishi Sunak has denied that Conservative calls to investigate Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner had been a waste of police time.
Speaking from Cornwall, the prime minister said “the police are independent of government. It’s for them to decide, you know, who and what they’re investigating”.
On 19 May the chief constable of the police force examining the claims, Stephen Watson, told the Guardian it was a letter from the Conservative deputy chair, James Daly, that led to his force reversing an initial decision not to investigate.'
Haw!
Simple solution - to reverse the impact James Daly should be arrested for a few hours to be interviewed regarding wasting police time.
I'm sure he will be in Manchester at some point...
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
Intent is difficult to judge. She apologised quite quickly - and maybe she was being truthful about it being an early draft. But I am sceptical.
The letter said this in relation to prejudice against Jews, travellers and the Irish: “It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism”
That is a terrible view. I am a ginger and have been picked on at school (and still see and her slurs against redheads in the media). But at no point would I consider those minor barbs akin to those suffered by Jews, travellers and the Irish for simply existing. Which is what the letter seems to suggests. What a ridiculous view. I appreciate that there is an argument about where race begins (and so racism - I don’t buy it, but there is an argument), but I am certain my experience as ginger is not the same as those with the characteristics noted at the top of the letter.
Each racial characteristic that suffers from prejudices has its own history of disgraceful behaviour. For blacks I would see slavery as that key original crime. For Jews the holocaust. You could play the game of rating each other’s past suffering and playing it off against each other. But what would be the point of that? I also think different forms of racism manifest themselves in the modern world in different ways. But I think I could say that without doing down different types of racism. I would have hoped that Diane Abbot could have done that too.
You need to ask yourself the question if you had a forced choice between being Jewish or black in this country, which would you choose? If one is obviously preferable to the other, she surely has a point
No one is putting armed guards outside “black” schools in Britain
There are security guards outside at least one of the schools round here and it is neither Black nor Jewish. One of the Black churches near where I used to work had two ginormous bouncers outside during services. I'm not sure what your point is but doubt it is well-founded.
Buy is it a much more common thing around mostly Jewish schools? I suspect it is.
This isn’t the point, but I would love to see Rishi Sunak asked how he would feel if his daughters decided not to go to university because it wasn’t worth it.
I know what his answer would be, I’d just like to see his reaction
Think this gets to the heart of something really profound about the modern Tory attitude to university and their anger over New Labour's expansion.
I have some sympathy with today's Tory line that apprentices are a good thing and some degree courses in some subjects are sub optimal and we wouldn't miss them. But my response is that they have had 14 years to sort this, it's not the sort of thing that costs trillions, they have treated FE badly (FE is closely linked with the world of apprentices), and it's time someone else had a turn at this. Too little, too late.
Might be convenient for the Tories to get rid of Truss now, while they have the chance...
She could become the leader of Reform.
Would they want her?
I'm pretty sure they wouldn't. If Nigel turned round and said 'Sorry, but we don't want dangerous loons like Liz Truss anywhere near our organization.' it would almost be seen as an act of statesmanship.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
A more popular question than asking if they have a loyalty card, or even worse an “app”.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
Intent is difficult to judge. She apologised quite quickly - and maybe she was being truthful about it being an early draft. But I am sceptical.
The letter said this in relation to prejudice against Jews, travellers and the Irish: “It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism”
That is a terrible view. I am a ginger and have been picked on at school (and still see and her slurs against redheads in the media). But at no point would I consider those minor barbs akin to those suffered by Jews, travellers and the Irish for simply existing. Which is what the letter seems to suggests. What a ridiculous view. I appreciate that there is an argument about where race begins (and so racism - I don’t buy it, but there is an argument), but I am certain my experience as ginger is not the same as those with the characteristics noted at the top of the letter.
Each racial characteristic that suffers from prejudices has its own history of disgraceful behaviour. For blacks I would see slavery as that key original crime. For Jews the holocaust. You could play the game of rating each other’s past suffering and playing it off against each other. But what would be the point of that? I also think different forms of racism manifest themselves in the modern world in different ways. But I think I could say that without doing down different types of racism. I would have hoped that Diane Abbot could have done that too.
You need to ask yourself the question if you had a forced choice between being Jewish or black in this country, which would you choose? If one is obviously preferable to the other, she surely has a point
No one is putting armed guards outside “black” schools in Britain
There are security guards outside at least one of the schools round here and it is neither Black nor Jewish. One of the Black churches near where I used to work had two ginormous bouncers outside during services. I'm not sure what your point is but doubt it is well-founded.
Buy is it a much more common thing around mostly Jewish schools? I suspect it is.
It is some weeks since being driven past two local Jewish schools but I could not see any security guards, no. It may be they have hotlines to the police or other special security arrangements.
We should not blow this out of proportion. There are weekly protest marches about Gaza, and have been for months, but they are marches not riots.
DKs only 15% in that poll. Not many to break back to the Tories there.
Yes, though once again 38% of the 2019 Tories are for Reform or DK. That's a remarkable 5 million voters. It is a very large pool in which the Tories should swim, and (betting post) might give second thoughts to anyone betting the farm on the Tories getting 40 seats or whatever it is if you Baxter YouGovs remarkable poll today.
When asked whether Labour have become so cautious that it wouldn't actually make much difference who was in power, 49 per cent agree compared to 46 per cent who disagree. Even among Labour voters 43 percent think this is the case.
Asked for their view of Labour, 46 per cent agree that "I am not enthusiastic about them but they can't be any worse than the Tories", compared to just 27 per cent who thought they would change Britain for the better.
Another poll asked how voters would respond to a new Labour government and found the "wouldn't minds" came out on top (49 per cent), compared to just 29 per cent who would be "delighted".
At this point, we should fess up. If you haven't already worked it out, all of the above three paragraphs are not from this contest but come from the one in 1997 that generated a landslide for Tony Blair's Labour.
I'm mindful the final YouGov of the London Mayoral election had Khan leading by 22% and he won by 11%. There may be some reasons for that in that Hall's core vote strategy probably did her some good in terms of differential turnout in what is a low turnout election, and it was not a "change" election in that Khan had been in for eight years.
However, it was a fairly big polling miss and I do have a suspicion YouGov and others not adjusting for "don't knows" are overestimating the Tory lead. That said, they were closer for Houchen (whilst still slightly underestimating his position) and actually projected a narrow Street win rather than narrow loss.
DKs only 15% in that poll. Not many to break back to the Tories there.
Yes, though once again 38% of the 2019 Tories are for Reform or DK. That's a remarkable 5 million voters. It is a very large pool in which the Tories should swim, and (betting post) might give second thoughts to anyone betting the farm on the Tories getting 40 seats or whatever it is if you Baxter YouGovs remarkable poll today.
This is true. But, every lurch to Reform spits voters out at the other end. We've seen that on here with at least two posters having been convinced not to vote Tory by Natty servs. It isn't cost free.
When asked whether Labour have become so cautious that it wouldn't actually make much difference who was in power, 49 per cent agree compared to 46 per cent who disagree. Even among Labour voters 43 percent think this is the case.
Asked for their view of Labour, 46 per cent agree that "I am not enthusiastic about them but they can't be any worse than the Tories", compared to just 27 per cent who thought they would change Britain for the better.
Another poll asked how voters would respond to a new Labour government and found the "wouldn't minds" came out on top (49 per cent), compared to just 29 per cent who would be "delighted".
At this point, we should fess up. If you haven't already worked it out, all of the above three paragraphs are not from this contest but come from the one in 1997 that generated a landslide for Tony Blair's Labour.
Yes. There seems to be a persistent myth that Blair generated enthusiasm bordering on ecstacy in the run up to 1997. I wasn't in the country, but I didn't get that impression. I think it's a comfort blanket.
This isn’t the point, but I would love to see Rishi Sunak asked how he would feel if his daughters decided not to go to university because it wasn’t worth it.
I know what his answer would be, I’d just like to see his reaction
Think this gets to the heart of something really profound about the modern Tory attitude to university and their anger over New Labour's expansion.
I have some sympathy with today's Tory line that apprentices are a good thing and some degree courses in some subjects are sub optimal and we wouldn't miss them. But my response is that they have had 14 years to sort this, it's not the sort of thing that costs trillions, they have treated FE badly (FE is closely linked with the world of apprentices), and it's time someone else had a turn at this. Too little, too late.
This isn’t the point, but I would love to see Rishi Sunak asked how he would feel if his daughters decided not to go to university because it wasn’t worth it.
I know what his answer would be, I’d just like to see his reaction
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Supermarkets don’t have enough check out staff, with the increasing use of self-service tills. The people who use the manned tills are very unrepresentative. The people who shop at supermarkets are unrepresentative.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1795767634283094384?s=19 Whatever the rights and wrongs of Abbotts behaviour, all that's left is images of someone who has been broken by Starmer and now harangued by journalists. If the election were remotely close this would have been disastrous for Labour. The callers to LBC last night might be described as apoplectic. Rally at Hackney Town Hall tonight. The story will bubble on but get lost in the result
You know, I misread that and thought you were referring to Truss (genuinely) and also thought it was unfortunate language and a bit misogynistic.
But no.
Bitch is not a word I would use to describe her. To be a bitch you need to be dogged and mean, have a scrappy arrogance. Truss is more like a wet gob of paper, something oddly organic but not wholly natural. Like some albino woodland creature with the wrong number of limbs. But not a bitch.
While the parties are happy to discuss Rayner, Abbott, Truss and all that, has anyone asked Labour (or indeed the others) how they plan to pay back the £2trillion debt, and whether they plan, as now, to deal with it by borrowing £100 billion a year more?
It almost feels like a politics/media conspiracy to keep the hard questions to stuff that doesn't actually matter much.
DKs only 15% in that poll. Not many to break back to the Tories there.
Yes, though once again 38% of the 2019 Tories are for Reform or DK. That's a remarkable 5 million voters. It is a very large pool in which the Tories should swim, and (betting post) might give second thoughts to anyone betting the farm on the Tories getting 40 seats or whatever it is if you Baxter YouGovs remarkable poll today.
This is true. But, every lurch to Reform spits voters out at the other end. We've seen that on here with at least two posters having been convinced not to vote Tory by Natty servs. It isn't cost free.
Yes, but I think most of those were lot some time ago. I have always voted Tory in GEs but have been lost since the Owen Paterson matter.
Too what end? I assume that the government can't resolve the dispute now we are in the election period? So naked politics from them? I'm not sure Starmer will have much leeway to pay them what they want.
It is political and the strikes have been political from the start. ASLEF is about money, our sainted NHS workers is about politics.
Only two weeks ago the govt were exploring mediation with them.
While the parties are happy to discuss Rayner, Abbott, Truss and all that, has anyone asked Labour (or indeed the others) how they plan to pay back the £2trillion debt, and whether they plan, as now, to deal with it by borrowing £100 billion a year more?
It almost feels like a politics/media conspiracy to keep the hard questions to stuff that doesn't actually matter much.
I hope they plan to deal with it by taxing the rich more. But the conundrum is, they can't say that because any mention of increased taxes will be translated by the press as 'Labour's £x bn tax bomb!'
If the west had done all this shit a year earlier, and decided to give F16s back when DuraAce first started saying it would be futile
I never said it would be futile. I said it would take a very long time to generate an effective F-16 combat capability. As has been proven.
Which is why everyone involved should have started to get their arses in gear around two years ago.
There weren't enough European F-16s available two years ago due to lack of F-35 deliveries though I agree that more and perhaps different things could have been done if anyone were really arsed about it. For starters, the entire RAAF F/A-18A/B fleet was recently for sale. That would have been a good move as it's a rough strip capable AIM-120 shooter that's also coded for ASRAAM so it wouldn't have been 100% reliant on US supply chains for weapons.
Why did the pollsters decide to start using these models when they didn't in 2019? I want to understand what the rationale was.
They did, and the rationale is to fix their predictions from last time. The problem all of them have is they are trying to fix a sampling problem by ever more sophisticated weighting.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Supermarkets don’t have enough check out staff, with the increasing use of self-service tills. The people who use the manned tills are very unrepresentative. The people who shop at supermarkets are unrepresentative.
They can put the single question on the self-service tills, not the manned tills. People who shop at supermarkets are a damn sight more representative than the people who waste an hour answering opinion polls, many of whom are astroturfers for political parties anyway (and a lot of them pb contributors back in the day). That is why opinion polls have to be so heavily weighted, which is where I came in.
You know, I misread that and thought you were referring to Truss (genuinely) and also thought it was unfortunate language and a bit misogynistic.
But no.
Bitch is not a word I would use to describe her. To be a bitch you need to be dogged and mean, have a scrappy arrogance. Truss is more like a wet gob of paper, something oddly organic but not wholly natural. Like some albino woodland creature with the wrong number of limbs. But not a bitch.
She is deeply, irredeemably weird.
Apparently her necklace has some hidden meaning. I have refrained from googling it.
Comments
Sweden doubtless feels more confident about providing more equipment now that its membership of NATO has been finalised.
I'd love for Starmer to make a bold move to try and win ownership of security policy from the Tories by pledging more support for Ukraine (via spending on domestic armaments production). I do have a slight worry that Chancellor Reeves might want to cut down on UK spending in support of Ukraine.
My suspicion is, and maybe they should try this, is the big supermarket chains could get a better election forecast by asking their millions of customers only one question at the checkout: who will you vote for on 4th July?
Should we expect to see Davey on every form of human-powered transport during the election campaign? Do we need to prepare bingo sheets with scooter, skateboard, rowing boat, etc?
Plus no plug sockets.
If the national gap is Survationy she struggles. Under 20% gap she's safe imo
Edit - Pa and big Sis Woolie who are both Tory leaning/in sis case very Tory both despise her. To give a personal indication of at least 2 Norfolk Tories and the Truss
I think she survives but I also think her 'new' profile post '22 will reignite some of the loathing when she was imposed by Dave
Imagine a new town designed to have a maze-like faux-mediaeval centre with cobbled streets and a grand square, a handsome “Georgian” quarter of townhouses, solicitors offices and garden squares with a few mews, a leafy North-Oxford style Victorian gothic area on the routes out with stained glass mullioned red brick mansions and large parks, and suburbs of spacious “Edwardian” and 30s style estates. Topped off with some high rise modern apartments by the railway station.
Imagine the queues. Genius.
More substantive, clearly distinct from either Labour or Tory and pretty serious in intent and philosophy.
By making Abbott out to be the most abused politician, they ignore the (often Tory, often male) politicians who receive more.
e.g. : https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.01498v1 (from 2015)
https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/104530/pdf/ (2019)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/12/one-in-six-tweets-to-candidates-abusive-or-insulting-study-finds (2019)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63330885 (backbenchers in 2022)
I'm also bemused that, for some reason, abuse against female MPs is taken more seriously by the media (and Amnesty...) than abuse against male MPs.
This isn’t the point, but I would love to see Rishi Sunak asked how he would feel if his daughters decided not to go to university because it wasn’t worth it.
I know what his answer would be, I’d just like to see his reaction
@IanDunt
Think this gets to the heart of something really profound about the modern Tory attitude to university and their anger over New Labour's expansion.
BREAK: Junior doctors in England to strike for five days from 27 June until 2 July in long-running dispute over pay
Looks like these dates were deliberately chosen to have as a big an impact on the election campaign
Ryan Air and Sleazy Jet try and dress it up.
https://x.com/jessphillips/status/1795744506664689920
🦘🦘🦘🦘🦘🦘🦘🦘
Suspect Tesco is the big-box bellwether. But would any of them break Tory atm? Waitrose? Booths?
He would sell the Ukranians out in five minutes flat if there were a few extra votes in it for him, just as he's sold out every other principle and most of the allies he once professed to have.
Starmer would have to get to serious chocolate gateau levels to stay in the competition.
Environmentally minded (likes trees) but still - fit THAT into your model YouGov.
@TheSun
·
21m
‘The Tories will destroy the party all by themselves - they don’t need Reform to help’,
@Nigel_Farage
blasts on #NeverMindTheBallots.
Maybe I'll write a letter.
BTW I see KCIII is to plant a replacement.
'Sunak denies Conservatives wasted police time with Rayner complaints, saying 'police are independent of government'
Rishi Sunak has denied that Conservative calls to investigate Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner had been a waste of police time.
Speaking from Cornwall, the prime minister said “the police are independent of government. It’s for them to decide, you know, who and what they’re investigating”.
On 19 May the chief constable of the police force examining the claims, Stephen Watson, told the Guardian it was a letter from the Conservative deputy chair, James Daly, that led to his force reversing an initial decision not to investigate.'
Haw!
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Sky_VI_240528_W.pdf
That is extinction levels right there.
I'm sure he will be in Manchester at some point...
But no.
We should not blow this out of proportion. There are weekly protest marches about Gaza, and have been for months, but they are marches not riots.
https://www.martinbaxter.co.uk/worldfromlondon.html
When asked whether Labour have become so cautious that it wouldn't actually make much difference who was in power, 49 per cent agree compared to 46 per cent who disagree. Even among Labour voters 43 percent think this is the case.
Asked for their view of Labour, 46 per cent agree that "I am not enthusiastic about them but they can't be any worse than the Tories", compared to just 27 per cent who thought they would change Britain for the better.
Another poll asked how voters would respond to a new Labour government and found the "wouldn't minds" came out on top (49 per cent), compared to just 29 per cent who would be "delighted".
At this point, we should fess up. If you haven't already worked it out, all of the above three paragraphs are not from this contest but come from the one in 1997 that generated a landslide for Tony Blair's Labour.
However, it was a fairly big polling miss and I do have a suspicion YouGov and others not adjusting for "don't knows" are overestimating the Tory lead. That said, they were closer for Houchen (whilst still slightly underestimating his position) and actually projected a narrow Street win rather than narrow loss.
But, every lurch to Reform spits voters out at the other end. We've seen that on here with at least two posters having been convinced not to vote Tory by Natty servs.
It isn't cost free.
I think it's a comfort blanket.
ITN Archive Alternative Election - Campaigning Begins! (1997)
Really fascinating.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of Abbotts behaviour, all that's left is images of someone who has been broken by Starmer and now harangued by journalists. If the election were remotely close this would have been disastrous for Labour. The callers to LBC last night might be described as apoplectic.
Rally at Hackney Town Hall tonight. The story will bubble on but get lost in the result
It almost feels like a politics/media conspiracy to keep the hard questions to stuff that doesn't actually matter much.
Only two weeks ago the govt were exploring mediation with them.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-explores-mediation-with-junior-doctors-committee