SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
Is it poor judgement? Is it a misstep? If anything, this demonstrates how Keir Starmer has changed the Labour Party. As he's said repeatedly, "Power not principle" and "Country first, Party second". This exemplifies this strategy; you do not have a God-given right to be a candidate or to hold a seat based on achievement, ethnicity, gender, record or religion. This was far from a first offence. Diane Abbott has managed to turn this into "Diane Abbott first, Party second and Country third".
Could it have been handled better? Maybe. The thing is... Starmer allowed the process to run the course. Follow the guidelines and rules to the letter so that there is no legal comeback. Heaven forbid a lawyer should think that appropriate. Diane Abbott is very good at shouting loudly and being the first to let her opinion be known. I doubt very much that we'll ever know quite what has gone on internally.
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
Quick fag packet attempt to square the circle and over analyse one poll because im bored YG found an increased lead which some have said 'was after NS announcement' YG also found support for NS narrowly 47 to 45 in a separate poll However the largest of the above individually was 'strongly against' at 30%
John Swinney “He feels like a drunk uncle that’s invited extra to your wedding. He’s there in your family, but you don’t really talk about him. And suddenly he appears and you’re like, ‘what’s he going to do now?’ He’s been there before at another wedding and effed up his speech, and now he’s come to yours and you think ‘I’d better keep an eye on him’.”
Conservative Sunday lunch:
And the Conservatives? “They’re in a stately home. It’s offensively big but they can’t afford to run it. There are no lights and there are holes in the roof;” “It would be like a mafia gathering;” “It would be like Shameless. Or Skins. Or The Kardashians;” “Remember when what’s his name got caught on camera? Matt Hancock. It’s like everyone in the family’s got a dark little secret.” What would they have for lunch? “Swan. And peasants.” Pheasant? “No, peasants. They’ve never had Buckfast or square sausage.”
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Dame Diana sounds quite good to me.
Would you require her to change her name to Diana, then? She's spent 70 years as a Diane, and it feels a bit late for a rebrand now.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
I suppose north of the border Swinney could turn it round, or at least, with 45% backing Indy has a better chance too, but he's no campaigner and if he urges the SNP will stand up for Scotland better than Labour he immediately faces the question 'how come you haven't then?'
You may or may not agree with Labour's VAT on private school fees policy, but I see no evidence it's been "silly" in terms of its effects on Labour's electoral prospects. It's not an unpopular policy. It's not been generally derided.
With Abbott, it's probably too early to tell. I'm not certain Starmer has handled the matter well, but again I doubt whether it's going to have much impact on the overall election. It might lose Labour some votes locally. I guess the big question is whether it impacts on Corbyn's run as an independent.
I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...
NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News
The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.
snip
Ever since suggesting that Reform voting intention might be a stepping stone for 2019 Tories to vote Labour to get the Tories out, I have a confirmation bias where I notice polls where that happens about three times as much as other polls - and here's another one! Reform down 2, Labour up 3.
If Labour end up squeezing the Reform vote more than the Tories do...
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
No wonder they're so unpopular.
So was Hitler
Hang it up mate. Honestly, comparing Starmer’s Labour to the Nazis is properly unhinged.
I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...
NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News
The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.
There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
Hopium.
"No, it can't be true. I can't be so massively disconnected from what most people think.
The polls must all be wrong."
YouGov today Baxters to Tories 29 seats. The real puzzle is who is disconnected from what? Am I disconnected because I don't think this or something a bit like it will happen despite the evidence? "It can't be true" (though I don't mind if it is) is running through a multitude of PB minds.
I doubt Baxters model can cope with the current levels of Tory support, it's a given that there are some constituencies that will only ever elect a conservative no matter how low their overall support and that's more than 29, circa 100 feels a more likely rock bottom. It's also unlikely to be able to account for voter confusion over which party is the realistic challenger, voters won't be helped there by misinformation, whether that is deliberate bias or poor analysis.
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
Blimey.
Wouldn't "Vote Conservative" have been more succinct?
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
No wonder they're so unpopular.
So was Hitler
Hang it up mate. Honestly, comparing Starmer’s Labour to the Nazis is properly unhinged.
Yes, he's not usually so moderate about SKS. Quite worried about him this morning.
— Triple lock plus “unaffordable” and “desperate” — "I viscerally hate it" — "kick in the face for young Conservatives"
Exc: CCHQ scrambled an emergency briefing for candidates with Isaac Levido and James Cleverly on Sunday, after activists were inundated with irate responses to the national service announcement
Looks like Labour will not only win most Scottish Westminster seats again for the first time since 2010 but will also win most Holyrood MSPs again and be able to form a minority government. Last time Scottish Labour won a Holyrood election to form the Scottish government was in 2003 when the SNP leader was one John Swinney
I have a question. In Hitchin, there are two serving MPs running for election. I assume that has happened before, but I can't seem to find any articles about it on the internet. Can anyone think of any examples?
What I would caution people tempted by the spreads to think about is the ever increasing disparity between those who will vote SNP and those that support independence. Although a minority, the latter figure shows that there is a significant pool of potential supporters for the SNP who are disillusioned with the party's lack of progress to the promised land. I am not saying that the campaign will cause some of these indy supporters to climb back on board but the potential is there.
Caveat venditor.
One thing I plan on covering is how many candidates the Greens and Alba put up, the SNP could face the vote split problems Unionists have with FPTP.
That may add to their problems but the Greens are weaker than they appear at Holyrood because they got a significant lift from being an alternative independence party (something they seem to have given up on) available for the list vote. I am doubtful many SNP supporters will be giving them that kind of boost again. Plus they are a bunch of incompetent nutters, of course.
A few hundred votes could make a difference. I think there could be a good number of seats where Labour or the Tories win a small majority. Who will the SNP blame for losing “their” seats, themselves or the Greens and Alba. I suspect it will be Alba, when they should be looking to see why voters will have deserted themselves.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
I don't think getting rid of Abbott will hurt Labour. Indeed it is further evidence that the party is under new management. Her sharpness has gone, and she seems quite unhealthy. Time to exit stage left.
The contrast between Abbott and Elphicke is a Labour Party incongruity. Nonetheless Abbott still retains the propensity to say something utterly mad and offensive. Although she does seem to have won the hearts and minds of the PB Tories.
They want her back so they can have another go at her ?
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
No wonder they're so unpopular.
So was Hitler
Hang it up mate. Honestly, comparing Starmer’s Labour to the Nazis is properly unhinged.
He called for Sir Keir to be hanged yesterday. Owls has now completed his journey to full-blown toxic moron.
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
No wonder they're so unpopular.
So was Hitler
Hang it up mate. Honestly, comparing Starmer’s Labour to the Nazis is properly unhinged.
Well they both have a hierarchy of racism and are totally undemocratic.
Admittedly the trains won't run on time due to the half arsed policy re rail nationalisation so not totally the same.
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
No wonder they're so unpopular.
So was Hitler
If I was an antisemitism denier I wouldn't go around calling other people 'Hitler'. But then Corbynistas aren't known for their rational attachment to reality.
Mind you I am now reliant on the worst airline in Eurasia. So early doors
Which airline has that title at the moment? Wizz Air really has improved since 2022...
The only two I make a point of avoiding are Air France and Ryanair.
One treats its customers as an unnecessary inconvenience, and the other has a bad habit of killing them.
Had to fly Air France Tahiti to LHR the other day (only game in town). They suck except that whenever they offer you coffee they suggest unprompted that you would like a cognac with it. I admire that.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
I suppose north of the border Swinney could turn it round, or at least, with 45% backing Indy has a better chance too, but he's no campaigner and if he urges the SNP will stand up for Scotland better than Labour he immediately faces the question 'how come you haven't then?'
It was the dementia tax which really shifted the polls as that hit the Tory core vote as well as swing voters in London and the South. Only the Labour core vote are really anti grammar, most voters wouldn't be that bothered with a few more grammars where local demand and even fox hunting was just a promise of a free vote to the rural Tory shires with little prospect of it getting through
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
Quick fag packet attempt to square the circle and over analyse one poll because im bored YG found an increased lead which some have said 'was after NS announcement' YG also found support for NS narrowly 47 to 45 in a separate poll However the largest of the above individually was 'strongly against' at 30%
Ergo the strongly outraged reacted immediately.
Or, polls fluctuate because thats what they do.
Your last point is the one.
The public decided how this election was going to play out a long time ago. The next six weeks on here will be constant over-analysing of whether Sunak not owning a brolly, or Starmer failing to deal with Abbott earlier, or Davey falling into a lake is a game-changer. Policies will be kicked around. Heated discussions about ties worn at debates will end longstanding friendships.
None of it will matter at all. There is an interesting question as to polling methodology - my personal view is leads in the 20s are off the mark just on the basis Labour tended to underperform their polls in the Blair years (it was fashionable to say "Labour" at that time and they won well but not to the extreme degree many polls said). But there won't be major movement on the ground - minds were made up a long while ago.
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
It was interesting watching Dawn Butler and Kwasi Kwarteng on Newsnight last night. Kwarteng said that growing up Diane Abbott was something of a hero and it showed him that people who looked like him could achieve things he hadn't thought they could.
KK's a likable man and I did wonder whether Keir Starmer's blunt rather crude understanding of racism is born of ignorance
Quick fag packet attempt to square the circle and over analyse one poll because im bored YG found an increased lead which some have said 'was after NS announcement' YG also found support for NS narrowly 47 to 45 in a separate poll However the largest of the above individually was 'strongly against' at 30%
Ergo the strongly outraged reacted immediately.
Or, polls fluctuate because thats what they do.
Your last point is the one.
The public decided how this election was going to play out a long time ago. The next six weeks on here will be constant over-analysing of whether Sunak not owning a brolly, or Starmer failing to deal with Abbott earlier, or Davey falling into a lake is a game-changer. Policies will be kicked around. Heated discussions about ties worn at debates will end longstanding friendships.
None of it will matter at all. There is an interesting question as to polling methodology - my personal view is leads in the 20s are off the mark just on the basis Labour tended to underperform their polls in the Blair years (it was fashionable to say "Labour" at that time and they won well but not to the extreme degree many polls said). But there won't be major movement on the ground - minds were made up a long while ago.
It all comes down to who actually goes out and votes on July 4th. Old people are likely to vote in significant numbers, young people may not but the National Service one is likely to encourage a fair few to seek out how to do it.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
Some of us remember reading about the interwar years when apprentices were used as cheap labour and sacked the day they got their articles.
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
No wonder they're so unpopular.
So was Hitler
Hang it up mate. Honestly, comparing Starmer’s Labour to the Nazis is properly unhinged.
He called for Sir Keir to be hanged yesterday. Owls has now completed his journey to full-blown toxic moron.
I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...
NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News
The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.
1 week down of the campaign and no signs of swingback yet (looking at the polls in aggregate). And it's been a week where the Tories have dominated the news with policy announcements.
5 weeks left to go for the swingback theory to come true...
What will they throw at the wall next?
Taking the polls in aggregate, for all pollsters with polls post-election announcement, looking at the changes in party shares only (latest YouGov, compared to last pre-election YouGov).
CON -1/3 LAB +1/9 LDM +1/9 GRN -2/9 RFM +1/9
The biggest change has been a decline in the Tory share, followed by the expected squeeze of the Green share beginning, but nothing significantly different to zero.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Yes, I am no fan of Abbott but she has been a long serving and prominent member of the party for nearly her entire life, breaking glass ceilings in her earlier days. She deserves better than this. I am reminded of the way Boris treated Ken Clarke. Hurting people to make a political point shows a somewhat nasty edge.
I think one thing we'll hear about when he's PM is that Starmer appears to be rather poor at people management, and tends to avoid getting his own fingerprints on it in a way that isn't helpful to him.
The Corbyn thing, I entirely get. Whether or not Corbyn wins in Islington (and he may well) it's simply helpful to detoxifying Labour that Corbyn has very visibly been cast out of Labour.
But Abbott isn't toxic in that way (and is a bit of an icon for some simply as first black female MP), and this has festered far too long. Similarly, the relationship with Duffield appears dire, and he's done little personally to resolve it.
I suspect he'll get real problems over this sort of thing when, inevitably, he has to disappoint people in reshuffles etc. That's particularly problematic if he wins big - he'll simply be managing a lot more people with fewer opportunities to keep them happy with jobs.
I would be surprised if she accepted a peerage. Mind you, Manny Shinwell did.
"BREAKING: Palestine Action cut Leonardo’s Edinburgh factory’s internet cables, disrupting the producers of targeting systems for Israel’s F-35 fighter jets."
The fact that Leonardo's ethernet cables are so easily accessed by a bunch of soy milk powered wokesters is serious cause for concern.
Though being located so close to the Muirhouse/Pilton/Granton stink pit* does not suggest they are that bothered about security.
*I might be moving there shortly
That was my neck of the woods. For a brief golden period Boswall Parkway had the most amazing fresh pasta takeaway you could ever hope to come across - before they found their more natural home in Stockbridge.
I would have thought that describing the Leonardo offices as a factory was stretching the definition slightly.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
Thirdly ( and oh yes I will probably get to ninthly) this obsession with earnings as a measure of quality and value is narrow minded and misses the many other benefits of going to university- to the individual and the country.
The majority of graduates earn more than non graduates. New analysis we will publish today shows this holds true across all regions of the Uk, and that the advantage grows over time.
I have had basically 2 careers since I graduated in very different fields, neither of them directly related to the course I studied.
Arguably going to university helped me get the first one, and having a degree definitely helped me get the second.
Based on the average earnings for my degree (Richi's preferred unit of measure) my first career earned about half of that, and my second nearly twice.
This is another terrible idea from a team that are just really, really bad at what they do. Maybe they should have become plumbers instead...
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
I suppose north of the border Swinney could turn it round, or at least, with 45% backing Indy has a better chance too, but he's no campaigner and if he urges the SNP will stand up for Scotland better than Labour he immediately faces the question 'how come you haven't then?'
It was the dementia tax which really shifted the polls as that hit the Tory core vote as well as swing voters in London and the South. Only the Labour core vote are really anti grammar, most voters wouldn't be that bothered with a few more grammars where local demand and even fox hunting was just a promise of a free vote to the rural Tory shires with little prospect of it getting through
2017, is the election I just can't get my head around, really didn't see it coming, looks like a lot of idiots who voted for Corbyn, went off and voted for Brexit and Johnson, two years later, where will the idiot vote land this time, Reform possibly
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
It was interesting watching Dawn Butler and Kwasi Kwarteng on Newsnight last night. Kwarteng said that growing up Diane Abbott was something of a hero and it showed him that people who looked like him could achieve things he hadn't thought they could.
KK's a likable man and I did wonder whether Keir Starmer's blunt rather crude understanding of racism needs looking at
Possibly, although I wonder if Kwarteng was saying that in 2019, or was he saying that the Corbyn-Abbott axis threatens to destroy our once great country, and must be crushed at all costs?
There may be an element of truth to what he says - but it's also somewhat convenient for Labour's opponents to portray Abbott as Britain's Mandela now... not so much a few years ago.
Personally, I think this has been poorly handled by Labour but isn't a big vote shifter - more a warning that Starmer's people management will come under scrutiny when he's PM.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
2 is easy. At the end of the apprenticeship the cheap staff will be sent off litter picking and cleaning up piss. For free.
Mind you I am now reliant on the worst airline in Eurasia. So early doors
Which airline has that title at the moment? Wizz Air really has improved since 2022...
The only two I make a point of avoiding are Air France and Ryanair.
One treats its customers as an unnecessary inconvenience, and the other has a bad habit of killing them.
Had to fly Air France Tahiti to LHR the other day (only game in town). They suck except that whenever they offer you coffee they suggest unprompted that you would like a cognac with it. I admire that.
Yes, after all these turbulence stories I'd be saying yes to that.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
We have provided apprenticeships for years and the Government paying for them and providing a £3000 payment over the course of the apprenticeship to us is nice. At the end of the apprenticeship the newly qualified electrician is employed by us on £50k+ p.a. at the age of 21. Or they could have gone to Uni, done a pointless degree, be in huge debt, and get an unskilled job paying minimum wage. But hey apprenticeships are crap.
Quick fag packet attempt to square the circle and over analyse one poll because im bored YG found an increased lead which some have said 'was after NS announcement' YG also found support for NS narrowly 47 to 45 in a separate poll However the largest of the above individually was 'strongly against' at 30%
Ergo the strongly outraged reacted immediately.
Or, polls fluctuate because thats what they do.
Your last point is the one.
The public decided how this election was going to play out a long time ago. The next six weeks on here will be constant over-analysing of whether Sunak not owning a brolly, or Starmer failing to deal with Abbott earlier, or Davey falling into a lake is a game-changer. Policies will be kicked around. Heated discussions about ties worn at debates will end longstanding friendships.
None of it will matter at all. There is an interesting question as to polling methodology - my personal view is leads in the 20s are off the mark just on the basis Labour tended to underperform their polls in the Blair years (it was fashionable to say "Labour" at that time and they won well but not to the extreme degree many polls said). But there won't be major movement on the ground - minds were made up a long while ago.
It all comes down to who actually goes out and votes on July 4th. Old people are likely to vote in significant numbers, young people may not but the National Service one is likely to encourage a fair few to seek out how to do it.
That's the foolishness.
A lot of older people quite like the idea, but they were already likely to vote and mostly vote Conservative.
A lot of younger people really hate the idea, were less likely to vote and will now vote against the Conservatives.
Adc those two up, you end up with a net loss. Trouble is that the Conservatives don't really talk to anyone who isn't already a loyalist.
YouGov is another shocker for the Conservatives and we'll need to have sight of the data tables to determine, in particular, what's happening in England.
The overnight Scotland polls look better for both Labour and the Conservatives but awful for the SNP. About a 12% swing from Conservative to Labour but both parties will be happy (as will the LDs).
IF Labour can take 25-30 more seats in Scotland that obviously smooths the path to a Westminster majority.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Dame Diana sounds quite good to me.
Would you require her to change her name to Diana, then? She's spent 70 years as a Diane, and it feels a bit late for a rebrand now.
She could still style herself Lady Di, though.
It just has a ring to it (or so my autocorrect believes).
Her becoming a Dame would be another small step on the road to abolishing the unelected Lords, so a net win ?
I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...
NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News
The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.
There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
Hopium.
"No, it can't be true. I can't be so massively disconnected from what most people think.
The polls must all be wrong."
YouGov today Baxters to Tories 29 seats. The real puzzle is who is disconnected from what? Am I disconnected because I don't think this or something a bit like it will happen despite the evidence? "It can't be true" (though I don't mind if it is) is running through a multitude of PB minds.
I doubt Baxters model can cope with the current levels of Tory support, it's a given that there are some constituencies that will only ever elect a conservative no matter how low their overall support and that's more than 29, circa 100 feels a more likely rock bottom. It's also unlikely to be able to account for voter confusion over which party is the realistic challenger, voters won't be helped there by misinformation, whether that is deliberate bias or poor analysis.
Yeah, if your model is telling you "29 tory seats" you should be suspecting "model has been pushed outside its valid range" rather than "historically unprecedented wipeout incoming". It *could* be the latter, but the former is more likely to be what's going on.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
We have provided apprenticeships for years and the Government paying for them and providing a £3000 payment over the course of the apprenticeship to us is nice. At the end of the apprenticeship the newly qualified electrician is employed by us on £50k+ p.a. at the age of 21. Or they could have gone to Uni, done a pointless degree, be in huge debt, and get an unskilled job paying minimum wage. But hey apprenticeships are crap.
Which is not what I said - my point is that you bought into the idea of apprenticeships, train up workers you need and employ them afterwards.
Often they are a source of cheap labour with the apprentice dumped at the end because they want cheap labour and not the end result...
There is no way that 100,000 apprenticeships created from Government incentives are going to all be from companies in the first group. Most will fall into the second group because companies will be abusing the scheme for their own ends...
— Triple lock plus “unaffordable” and “desperate” — "I viscerally hate it" — "kick in the face for young Conservatives"
Exc: CCHQ scrambled an emergency briefing for candidates with Isaac Levido and James Cleverly on Sunday, after activists were inundated with irate responses to the national service announcement
This is ideal for the opposition. I postulated before about the chaotic runout scenario: Yes! No, no, no! Go! Batsman stranded in the middle of the pitch and keeper whips off the bails.
That seems to have happened a bit with the timing of the election itself, and if it happens with the manifesto too - boomer policies make a concerted run, young conservatives at the other end put up their palms and shout no - then any remaining coherence could really dissolve.
Labour just need to keep backed up behind the wicket with gloves on.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Dame Diana sounds quite good to me.
Would you require her to change her name to Diana, then? She's spent 70 years as a Diane, and it feels a bit late for a rebrand now.
She could still style herself Lady Di, though.
It just has a ring to it (or so my autocorrect believes).
Her becoming a Dame would be another small step on the road to abolishing the unelected Lords, so a net win ?
The obvious answer to the Lords question is just to have it as Diane Abbott for Labour, Floella Benjamin for the Lib Dems, and an animatronic version of the late Baroness Trumpington for the Tories.
This elegant solution should've been implemented years ago.
Quick fag packet attempt to square the circle and over analyse one poll because im bored YG found an increased lead which some have said 'was after NS announcement' YG also found support for NS narrowly 47 to 45 in a separate poll However the largest of the above individually was 'strongly against' at 30%
Ergo the strongly outraged reacted immediately.
Or, polls fluctuate because thats what they do.
Your last point is the one.
The public decided how this election was going to play out a long time ago. The next six weeks on here will be constant over-analysing of whether Sunak not owning a brolly, or Starmer failing to deal with Abbott earlier, or Davey falling into a lake is a game-changer. Policies will be kicked around. Heated discussions about ties worn at debates will end longstanding friendships.
None of it will matter at all. There is an interesting question as to polling methodology - my personal view is leads in the 20s are off the mark just on the basis Labour tended to underperform their polls in the Blair years (it was fashionable to say "Labour" at that time and they won well but not to the extreme degree many polls said). But there won't be major movement on the ground - minds were made up a long while ago.
It all comes down to who actually goes out and votes on July 4th. Old people are likely to vote in significant numbers, young people may not but the National Service one is likely to encourage a fair few to seek out how to do it.
That's the foolishness.
A lot of older people quite like the idea, but they were already likely to vote and mostly vote Conservative.
A lot of younger people really hate the idea, were less likely to vote and will now vote against the Conservatives.
Adc those two up, you end up with a net loss. Trouble is that the Conservatives don't really talk to anyone who isn't already a loyalist.
Sky news data out and has 19% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform, 19% Don't Know and just 14% switched to Labour.
So some logic in Rishi forgetting anyone who didn't vote Conservative already in 2019 and ignoring even 2019 Conservative voters who have switched to Labour to focus relentlessly on Tory to Reform and DK switchers. Given the general election is lost regardless the focus should be to try and save some Tory seats "Labour extends lead over Tories in exclusive poll for Sky News | Politics News | Sky News" https://news.sky.com/story/labour-extends-lead-over-tories-in-exclusive-poll-for-sky-news-13144620
Tory net gain? The mist hilarious outcome in the event of a meltdown elsewhere, perhaps they will end up, by seats, more popular in Scotland than anywhere else.
I'll still remain bullish on the SNP for now, but I'm hopeful.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
I suppose north of the border Swinney could turn it round, or at least, with 45% backing Indy has a better chance too, but he's no campaigner and if he urges the SNP will stand up for Scotland better than Labour he immediately faces the question 'how come you haven't then?'
It was the dementia tax which really shifted the polls as that hit the Tory core vote as well as swing voters in London and the South. Only the Labour core vote are really anti grammar, most voters wouldn't be that bothered with a few more grammars where local demand and even fox hunting was just a promise of a free vote to the rural Tory shires with little prospect of it getting through
2017, is the election I just can't get my head around, really didn't see it coming, looks like a lot of idiots who voted for Corbyn, went off and voted for Brexit and Johnson, two years later, where will the idiot vote land this time, Reform possibly
There will be some voters who voted UKIP in 2015, Corbyn in 2017, Johnson in 2019 and will vote Reform this time yes
I harp on it, but when will poor Alba get some love and attention?
It seems to me that, if the question is what nationalist voters should do about a dodgy and sleazy SNP led by a tired yesterday's man, the answer very much is not to turn to a party led by Salmond and populated by a rag-bag of disaffected hangers on.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Dame Diana sounds quite good to me.
Would you require her to change her name to Diana, then? She's spent 70 years as a Diane, and it feels a bit late for a rebrand now.
She could still style herself Lady Di, though.
It just has a ring to it (or so my autocorrect believes).
Her becoming a Dame would be another small step on the road to abolishing the unelected Lords, so a net win ?
The obvious answer to the Lords question is just to have it as Diane Abbott for Labour, Floella Benjamin for the Lib Dems, and an animatronic version of the late Baroness Trumpington for the Tories.
This elegant solution should've been implemented years ago.
Also need a cross-bencher. Maybe someone with experience of crossing benches... Elphicke?
Off-topic: progress on something I've wittered on about for years: transmutation of nuclear 'waste'
"According to the Swiss national body, Transmutex’s technology could help reduce the volume of nuclear waste generated by 80 percent and reduce the time it remains radioactive to less than 500 years. More importantly, the technology could also be applied to 99 percent of existing nuclear waste."
“If it can be demonstrated to work, you basically get the best of both worlds,” said Jack Henderson, chair of the nuclear physics group at the UK’s Institute of Physics and a researcher at the University of Surrey. “You are able to reduce the level of radioactivity produced by burning up some of the longer-lived isotopes produced in your reactor — and you get energy out at the same time.”"
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
No wonder they're so unpopular.
So was Hitler
Hang it up mate. Honestly, comparing Starmer’s Labour to the Nazis is properly unhinged.
He called for Sir Keir to be hanged yesterday. Owls has now completed his journey to full-blown toxic moron.
There's a certain irony in that comment.
TRUSS
CASH
Yes it is indeed ironic when you endlessly bring up cash when I haven’t done so for months. You are weirdly, creepily obsessed. Seek help.
So Rishi Sunak's kids, when they reach 18, are going to spend a year crawling through mud on Salisbury Plain being swore at by a Sergeant -Major and then get skilled apprenticeships in bricklaying?
Thing to note. There is a mad logic to the Tory strategy. Their big fear was everyone had made their minds up, no-one would tune in to the election, and they wouldn't even get a hearing. Now they are at least getting heard. The problem is what people are hearing is bonkers.
So Rishi Sunak's kids, when they reach 18, are going to spend a year crawling through mud on Salisbury Plain being swore at by a Sergeant -Major and then get skilled apprenticeships in bricklaying?
Thing to note. There is a mad logic to the Tory strategy. Their big fear was everyone had made their minds up, no-one would tune in to the election, and they wouldn't even get a hearing. Now they are at least getting heard. The problem is what people are hearing is bonkers.
If they are listening to Hodges increasingly hysterical commentary on the election they are certainly getting a bonkers surfeit
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
Didn't you acknowledge yesterday this decision was more likely factional in nature?
After attention was drawn to Corbyn in response to a point claiming a different standard for white men?
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
So Rishi Sunak's kids, when they reach 18, are going to spend a year crawling through mud on Salisbury Plain being swore at by a Sergeant -Major and then get skilled apprenticeships in bricklaying?
Not if they have any say in it. Good thing they're too young to vote.
Thing to note. There is a mad logic to the Tory strategy. Their big fear was everyone had made their minds up, no-one would tune in to the election, and they wouldn't even get a hearing. Now they are at least getting heard. The problem is what people are hearing is bonkers.
And bonkers is a problem because? 52% voted for Brexit. Trump won voteshares of 46% and 47%. How likely was it that the Tory party wouldn't get a hearing? Talk about living in a cocoon.
So Rishi Sunak's kids, when they reach 18, are going to spend a year crawling through mud on Salisbury Plain being swore at by a Sergeant -Major and then get skilled apprenticeships in bricklaying?
If he is to be believed...
That'll be a no then.
If nothing else, they'll be Stateside by then.
(Yes, I know he said he would stick around. Of course he bloody did- he couldn't say otherwise. But as with Dave's promise to stay on in 2016, events are pretty much bound to overtake it.)
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Abbott's was not intended as antisemitism denial so much as claiming a special place for anti-Black racism. That is not to say it was not ill-advised or offensive but there is no mens rea as SKS might say.
Giving her back the whip is a sign she has served her proportionate punishment in the eyes of the party. Not letting her stand is more personal - Keir not interested in starting out with the same serial rebels as the last Labour government, he can get his own.
In the event of a hung parliament expect C and S rather than a formal coalition.
I am sorry, but you shouldn't be taking hits off a crack pipe before posting. Look at the polling - the labour lead is widening after the GE was called. The low low quality of the tory campaign, message fragmentation and targeting of very narrow voting segments and the conservative organization in a state of disrepair. The numbers are the numbers (within a 2-3% marging of error) and this is going to be a landslide. Talk of hung parliaments is kubler-Ross grief management. Let me remind you the stages: denial, anger, negotiation, despair, acceptance.
To be fair to @Foxy , he did say "in the event". Future events have non-zero probabilities. The Kubler-Ross stuff is largely coming from Conservative supporters.
And it's a fair point to note that the polling is saying something crazy. In the British system, parties don't win elections by over twenty points. Even Maggie in 1983 only won by fifteen.
And yet... The numbers are the numbers, across many polls by multiple companies. And they are backed up by the other data we have. I think it's now OK to say that the act of calling the election hasn't caused a "minds concentrated, this is now for real" bounce for the government.
They've got five weeks, and counting.
It's worth remembering that Theresa May had a 20% lead as late as the ICM with fieldwork on 12-14th May - 25 days before polling day, and 26 days after the election was announced. We still have 36 days to go, and we're only 7 days post election announcement.
It is also worth remembering that even before the 'dementia tax' nonsense May's campaign was making a number of serious gaffes. Grammar schools and fox hunting spring to mind. The idiots behind her (looks hard at Nick Timothy) believed they were inviolable and therefore could propose a hit list of Tory wet dreams to go with what they expected to be a huge mandate.
Starmer, by contrast, seems wary of any hubris and is intent on avoiding giving new hostages to fortune. The only really silly things he's done so far are VAT on private school fees and Diane Abbott's in and out situation.
The Diane Abbott thing is definitely a screw up. It really should have been a polite we are happy to have you back but you are not well and 70 years old, there is a peerage of you retire quietly..
Should it be though? Abbott is understandably given leeway given her status as a historic figure - rightly in many senses. But what she said was egregious, it was hardly a first offence in terms of antisemitism denial, and though there was an apology, I'm not sure many on those on the wrong end of her comments think it was overly sincere. Plus, she really does hold views Labour shouldn't be associating itself with - look at what she said when Russia was invading Ukraine.
You couldn't really give her a peerage without it looking grubby in another way.
Yes, they've handled it badly. But let's not pretend this is someone who is entirely blameless getting the boot for factional reasons rather than someone who holds some pretty dismal views that are now, thankfully, not acceptable within Labour. Who Labour were in a quandary about dealing with in the harsh way might otherwise have done because she holds significance for other reasons.
Dame Diana sounds quite good to me.
Would you require her to change her name to Diana, then? She's spent 70 years as a Diane, and it feels a bit late for a rebrand now.
She could still style herself Lady Di, though.
It just has a ring to it (or so my autocorrect believes).
Her becoming a Dame would be another small step on the road to abolishing the unelected Lords, so a net win ?
The obvious answer to the Lords question is just to have it as Diane Abbott for Labour, Floella Benjamin for the Lib Dems, and an animatronic version of the late Baroness Trumpington for the Tories.
This elegant solution should've been implemented years ago.
Hopefully the animatronicists will do a more convincing job than they did with Rachel Reeves.
Thing to note. There is a mad logic to the Tory strategy. Their big fear was everyone had made their minds up, no-one would tune in to the election, and they wouldn't even get a hearing. Now they are at least getting heard. The problem is what people are hearing is bonkers.
And bonkers is a problem because? 52% voted for Brexit. Trump won voteshares of 46% and 47%. How likely was it that the Tory party wouldn't get a hearing? Talk about living in a cocoon.
Oh, the Conservatives have got a hearing all right.
Unfortunately, they seem determined to prove the adage that it is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.
So Rishi Sunak's kids, when they reach 18, are going to spend a year crawling through mud on Salisbury Plain being swore at by a Sergeant -Major and then get skilled apprenticeships in bricklaying?
If he is to be believed...
That'll be a no then.
If nothing else, they'll be Stateside by then.
(Yes, I know he said he would stick around. Of course he bloody did- he couldn't say otherwise. But as with Dave's promise to stay on in 2016, events are pretty much bound to overtake it.)
They will still own property in and visit the UK I'm sure. And you can stick it out as an MP whilst half arsing it, we've seen that before.
The airline I am trying to use is even worse than Wizz
Virtual PB points to anyone who can guess
Flyone - enjoy Chișinău and Moldova...
Spot on
Felicitări
Are the Gazette sending you to do a piece in Moldova? Will you be comparing the Moldova of today to that portrayed in what is I think the classic (indeed, possibly, only) example of Moldovan travel writing: Tony Hawks' "Playing the Moldovans at Tennis"?
I presume Harry Cole was ramping this one earlier today? Or maybe not...
NEW. The Labour Party has EXTENDED its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News
The Great Britain poll - conducted on Mon and Tue this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the LibDems on 9% and Greens on 7%.
There was lots of moronic poll ramping yesterday both on here and on Twitter. It needs to stop.
Hopium.
"No, it can't be true. I can't be so massively disconnected from what most people think.
The polls must all be wrong."
YouGov today Baxters to Tories 29 seats. The real puzzle is who is disconnected from what? Am I disconnected because I don't think this or something a bit like it will happen despite the evidence? "It can't be true" (though I don't mind if it is) is running through a multitude of PB minds.
I doubt Baxters model can cope with the current levels of Tory support, it's a given that there are some constituencies that will only ever elect a conservative no matter how low their overall support and that's more than 29, circa 100 feels a more likely rock bottom. It's also unlikely to be able to account for voter confusion over which party is the realistic challenger, voters won't be helped there by misinformation, whether that is deliberate bias or poor analysis.
Yeah, if your model is telling you "29 tory seats" you should be suspecting "model has been pushed outside its valid range" rather than "historically unprecedented wipeout incoming". It *could* be the latter, but the former is more likely to be what's going on.
I think 29 seats is a reasonable prediction for vote shares of 47-20 with FPTP.
Remember that in 2010, the Lib Dems received 23% of the vote, were only 6pp behind Labour and only 13.1pp behind the Tories, but won only 57 seats - and that only thanks to two decades of local campaigning to concentrate their vote enough to win seats.
If the Tories really do end up 27pp behind then it is almost inevitable that FPTP will produce something approaching a wipeout.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
We have provided apprenticeships for years and the Government paying for them and providing a £3000 payment over the course of the apprenticeship to us is nice. At the end of the apprenticeship the newly qualified electrician is employed by us on £50k+ p.a. at the age of 21. Or they could have gone to Uni, done a pointless degree, be in huge debt, and get an unskilled job paying minimum wage. But hey apprenticeships are crap.
It's a mixed picture. I know of many local authorities who have taken on apprentices across the length and breadth of their activities. One example - an apprentice expressed an interest in property management and got a placement, worked hard, sat his RICS exams, passed them with flying colours but as soon as he got qualified, he was off to a West End firm who were happy with the experience he had gained at the Council and could pay him twice as much as the Council.
The same happens in IT, Finance, Procurement and Legal where the private sector can always outbid the public. OTOH, I know of an apprentice who wanted to go into Social Work (a very difficult profession) but she worked her way through the exams and the qualifications and is still with the Council and running her own team so it can work to everyone's benefit.
It's nuanced and your example shows how it can and arguably should work. Unfortunately, that's not what happens in all cases.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved 2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
Apprenticeships should have to lead to a recognised industry-wide qualification, in order to be accepted as such.
Thing to note. There is a mad logic to the Tory strategy. Their big fear was everyone had made their minds up, no-one would tune in to the election, and they wouldn't even get a hearing. Now they are at least getting heard. The problem is what people are hearing is bonkers.
And bonkers is a problem because? 52% voted for Brexit. Trump won voteshares of 46% and 47%. How likely was it that the Tory party wouldn't get a hearing? Talk about living in a cocoon.
The difference is they are not drawing anywhere near that level of support it appears, and what they are proposing are either niche or at best broadly popular ideas to their base, it's not some cross cutting mega popular policy offer.
London St Pancras to Luton Airport Parkway goes from one gleaming new station to another gleaming new station
And it takes…. 24 minutes
And Luton Airport is ideally placed to serve an Oxford-Cambridge traffic corridor.
It’s now an excellent airport
Small enough to be easy to get around. Yet now modernised so it has nice shops and bars. Special gin bar! And ridiculously close to London’s best station - St Pancras. 24 minutes!l
😶😎
Does any other great global city have TWO airports less than 25 minutes by fast train from the centre?
We do moan about British infrastructure and HS2 is a planet sized calamity yet quietly we also get things done. Luton Airport is an example
Having said all that I will now probably suffer a 6 hour delay
SKS's first banana skin. Poor judgement shifty and patronising. If she chooses to she could make things quite uncomfortable for him. 'An online course in anti semitism!'
The Labour Party, once a bastion of hope, is no longer a sanctuary for Black people. It has degenerated into a veritable cesspit of racism and a haven for those who abet genocide.
Blimey.
Wouldn't "Vote Conservative" have been more succinct?
I'm with BigJohn.
Starmer consolidated himself in the leadership by telling pro-Israeli lies about Jeremy Corbyn, and from the moment when he said Israel have the right to cut the water and electricity to Gaza, i.e. commit genocide, there has been no possibility I would ever vote Labour when it's still led by such a man. That's final. Not even if the Tories promise to give death-penalty rights to district commissions established by local councils and ratepayers' organisations.
Cutting the water supply to a civilian population is a crime against humanity. Remind me what Starmer's profession is again?
PS Oh I get flagged. Some tool probably thinks the above statements are "pro-Hamas".
Comments
Could it have been handled better? Maybe. The thing is... Starmer allowed the process to run the course. Follow the guidelines and rules to the letter so that there is no legal comeback. Heaven forbid a lawyer should think that appropriate. Diane Abbott is very good at shouting loudly and being the first to let her opinion be known. I doubt very much that we'll ever know quite what has gone on internally.
One treats its customers as an unnecessary inconvenience, and the other has a bad habit of killing them.
YG found an increased lead which some have said 'was after NS announcement'
YG also found support for NS narrowly 47 to 45 in a separate poll
However the largest of the above individually was 'strongly against' at 30%
Ergo the strongly outraged reacted immediately.
Or, polls fluctuate because thats what they do.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/05/theyre-not-a-family-anymore-theyre-not-afraid-of-causing-a-ruckus-theyre-eating-sourdough-at-9-a-loaf-my-focus-groups-in-paisley-dundee-and-aberdeen/
As usual some good quotes
John Swinney “He feels like a drunk uncle that’s invited extra to your wedding. He’s there in your family, but you don’t really talk about him. And suddenly he appears and you’re like, ‘what’s he going to do now?’ He’s been there before at another wedding and effed up his speech, and now he’s come to yours and you think ‘I’d better keep an eye on him’.”
Conservative Sunday lunch:
And the Conservatives? “They’re in a stately home. It’s offensively big but they can’t afford to run it. There are no lights and there are holes in the roof;” “It would be like a mafia gathering;” “It would be like Shameless. Or Skins. Or The Kardashians;” “Remember when what’s his name got caught on camera? Matt Hancock. It’s like everyone in the family’s got a dark little secret.” What would they have for lunch? “Swan. And peasants.” Pheasant? “No, peasants. They’ve never had Buckfast or square sausage.”
She could still style herself Lady Di, though.
With Abbott, it's probably too early to tell. I'm not certain Starmer has handled the matter well, but again I doubt whether it's going to have much impact on the overall election. It might lose Labour some votes locally. I guess the big question is whether it impacts on Corbyn's run as an independent.
If Labour end up squeezing the Reform vote more than the Tories do...
It's also unlikely to be able to account for voter confusion over which party is the realistic challenger, voters won't be helped there by misinformation, whether that is deliberate bias or poor analysis.
Wouldn't "Vote Conservative" have been more succinct?
Er ...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/28/angela-rayner-cleared-of-criminal-wrongdoing-over-sale-of-home
@estwebber
EXC: Tory backlash over "boomer election"
— Triple lock plus “unaffordable” and “desperate”
— "I viscerally hate it"
— "kick in the face for young Conservatives"
Exc: CCHQ scrambled an emergency briefing for candidates with Isaac Levido and James Cleverly on Sunday, after activists were inundated with irate responses to the national service announcement
https://x.com/estwebber/status/1795720193655894225
Oh...
Virtual PB points to anyone who can guess
So, Conservatives pledge to increase apprenticeships by 100k by cutting 1 in 8 degrees. I feel a little thread is in order.
https://x.com/viviennestern/status/1795704237231665562
Admittedly the trains won't run on time due to the half arsed policy re rail nationalisation so not totally the same.
Play with the assumptions & see how it affects the predicted outcome.
Was thinking exactly this.
1) anyone going to university will pick a different course so no money will be saved
2) the apprenticeships will be crap because unless companies have bought into the idea and have a team managing the apprenticeships they will be poorly structured and managed while often just being used to provide cheap staff for 2 years before they bin the old intake out and bring in new cheap labour.
All apprenticeships should be required to say what happens at the end of the apprenticeship with historic figures used to match what is claimed with reality...
The public decided how this election was going to play out a long time ago. The next six weeks on here will be constant over-analysing of whether Sunak not owning a brolly, or Starmer failing to deal with Abbott earlier, or Davey falling into a lake is a game-changer. Policies will be kicked around. Heated discussions about ties worn at debates will end longstanding friendships.
None of it will matter at all. There is an interesting question as to polling methodology - my personal view is leads in the 20s are off the mark just on the basis Labour tended to underperform their polls in the Blair years (it was fashionable to say "Labour" at that time and they won well but not to the extreme degree many polls said). But there won't be major movement on the ground - minds were made up a long while ago.
KK's a likable man and I did wonder whether Keir Starmer's blunt rather crude understanding of racism is born of ignorance
TRUSS
CASH
CON -1/3
LAB +1/9
LDM +1/9
GRN -2/9
RFM +1/9
The biggest change has been a decline in the Tory share, followed by the expected squeeze of the Green share beginning, but nothing significantly different to zero.
I would have thought that describing the Leonardo offices as a factory was stretching the definition slightly.
@viviennestern
Thirdly ( and oh yes I will probably get to ninthly) this obsession with earnings as a measure of quality and value is narrow minded and misses the many other benefits of going to university- to the individual and the country.
The majority of graduates earn more than non graduates. New analysis we will publish today shows this holds true across all regions of the Uk, and that the advantage grows over time.
I have had basically 2 careers since I graduated in very different fields, neither of them directly related to the course I studied.
Arguably going to university helped me get the first one, and having a degree definitely helped me get the second.
Based on the average earnings for my degree (Richi's preferred unit of measure) my first career earned about half of that, and my second nearly twice.
This is another terrible idea from a team that are just really, really bad at what they do. Maybe they should have become plumbers instead...
Savanta, BMG, Kantar(for months), Whitestone Insight, Lord Ashcroft, Norstat
Any others?
There may be an element of truth to what he says - but it's also somewhat convenient for Labour's opponents to portray Abbott as Britain's Mandela now... not so much a few years ago.
Personally, I think this has been poorly handled by Labour but isn't a big vote shifter - more a warning that Starmer's people management will come under scrutiny when he's PM.
At the end of the apprenticeship the cheap staff will be sent off litter picking and cleaning up piss.
For free.
They have started their descent from cruising altitude, but it’s still 5 weeks to landing.
A lot of older people quite like the idea, but they were already likely to vote and mostly vote Conservative.
A lot of younger people really hate the idea, were less likely to vote and will now vote against the Conservatives.
Adc those two up, you end up with a net loss. Trouble is that the Conservatives don't really talk to anyone who isn't already a loyalist.
YouGov is another shocker for the Conservatives and we'll need to have sight of the data tables to determine, in particular, what's happening in England.
The overnight Scotland polls look better for both Labour and the Conservatives but awful for the SNP. About a 12% swing from Conservative to Labour but both parties will be happy (as will the LDs).
IF Labour can take 25-30 more seats in Scotland that obviously smooths the path to a Westminster majority.
Her becoming a Dame would be another small step on the road to abolishing the unelected Lords, so a net win ?
Often they are a source of cheap labour with the apprentice dumped at the end because they want cheap labour and not the end result...
There is no way that 100,000 apprenticeships created from Government incentives are going to all be from companies in the first group. Most will fall into the second group because companies will be abusing the scheme for their own ends...
That seems to have happened a bit with the timing of the election itself, and if it happens with the manifesto too - boomer policies make a concerted run, young conservatives at the other end put up their palms and shout no - then any remaining coherence could really dissolve.
Labour just need to keep backed up behind the wicket with gloves on.
YouRes
Angus-BMRB
TNS-Reid
Popinium
Opulus
This elegant solution should've been implemented years ago.
So some logic in Rishi forgetting anyone who didn't vote Conservative already in 2019 and ignoring even 2019 Conservative voters who have switched to Labour to focus relentlessly on Tory to Reform and DK switchers. Given the general election is lost regardless the focus should be to try and save some Tory seats
"Labour extends lead over Tories in exclusive poll for Sky News | Politics News | Sky News" https://news.sky.com/story/labour-extends-lead-over-tories-in-exclusive-poll-for-sky-news-13144620
I'll still remain bullish on the SNP for now, but I'm hopeful.
Unlike nuclear waste something things don’t change.
"Labour have led on every policy area for a long time, including the economy. Starmer has led on best PM with us since May 2023"
@ChrisHopkins92 speaks to @JessicaFKeyes on why the polls don't look like they're going to narrow right now.
Thing to note. There is a mad logic to the Tory strategy. Their big fear was everyone had made their minds up, no-one would tune in to the election, and they wouldn't even get a hearing. Now they are at least getting heard. The problem is what people are hearing is bonkers.
After attention was drawn to Corbyn in response to a point claiming a different standard for white men?
52% voted for Brexit. Trump won voteshares of 46% and 47%.
How likely was it that the Tory party wouldn't get a hearing?
Talk about living in a cocoon.
Felicitări
If nothing else, they'll be Stateside by then.
(Yes, I know he said he would stick around. Of course he bloody did- he couldn't say otherwise. But as with Dave's promise to stay on in 2016, events are pretty much bound to overtake it.)
Unfortunately, they seem determined to prove the adage that it is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.
Remember that in 2010, the Lib Dems received 23% of the vote, were only 6pp behind Labour and only 13.1pp behind the Tories, but won only 57 seats - and that only thanks to two decades of local campaigning to concentrate their vote enough to win seats.
If the Tories really do end up 27pp behind then it is almost inevitable that FPTP will produce something approaching a wipeout.
The other issue is that the apprenticeship system is beset by too much red tape!
The same happens in IT, Finance, Procurement and Legal where the private sector can always outbid the public. OTOH, I know of an apprentice who wanted to go into Social Work (a very difficult profession) but she worked her way through the exams and the qualifications and is still with the Council and running her own team so it can work to everyone's benefit.
It's nuanced and your example shows how it can and arguably should work. Unfortunately, that's not what happens in all cases.
Small enough to be easy to get around. Yet now modernised so it has nice shops and bars. Special gin bar! And ridiculously close to London’s best station - St Pancras. 24 minutes!l
😶😎
Does any other great global city have TWO airports less than 25 minutes by fast train from the centre?
We do moan about British infrastructure and HS2 is a planet sized calamity yet quietly we also get things done. Luton Airport is an example
Having said all that I will now probably suffer a 6 hour delay
Starmer consolidated himself in the leadership by telling pro-Israeli lies about Jeremy Corbyn, and from the moment when he said Israel have the right to cut the water and electricity to Gaza, i.e. commit genocide, there has been no possibility I would ever vote Labour when it's still led by such a man. That's final. Not even if the Tories promise to give death-penalty rights to district commissions established by local councils and ratepayers' organisations.
Cutting the water supply to a civilian population is a crime against humanity. Remind me what Starmer's profession is again?
PS Oh I get flagged. Some tool probably thinks the above statements are "pro-Hamas".