A grim election night so far for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

System · May 3

A grim election night so far for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

Labour has lost control of Oldham council after losing seats to independents @PA It did have small majority on council (31/60) but has been losing seats in recent elections.There’s a large Muslim population in area, where Labour may have lost support because of Gaza stance.

Read the full story here

Taz · May 3

FIRST !!!

DecrepiterJohnL · May 3

Grim for the Conservatives but will Rishi still be in charge next ~~week/month/year~~ week/month?

Benpointer · May 3

2nd with a 26% swing against

Bugger!

ToryJim · May 3

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Grim for the Conservatives but will Rishi still be in charge next ~~week/month/year~~ week/month?

Is he in charge now?

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose

Benpointer · May 3

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Grim for the Conservatives but will Rishi still be in charge next ~~week/month/year~~ week/month?

Starmer will be hoping so.

Benpointer · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose

When does the London Mayor count take place?

TimS · May 3

Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.

DavidL · May 3

FPT

What is striking me is the differentials between holds and losses. Currently, on the BBC, at 117 holds and 122 losses. If that pattern continues to hold and the Tories lose just over half of the seats they have up this will truly have been catastrophic results, way beyond the very bad that was predicted.

For the first time I do begin to wonder if the Tories can afford to go into an election led by Sunak. They made such a decision before with IDS but (a) he was an idiot and (b) that was in opposition. It is a dreadful dilemma for them.

Foxy · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose

In the context of such massive losses elsewhere with the Tories losing more than 500 councillors it would be very much against the run of play.

Even in Uxbridge there was an 8% swing against the Tories, and the heat over ULEZ has faded somewhat since.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
When does the London Mayor count take place?

Tomorrow I think

Benpointer · May 3

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.

If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.

IanB2 · May 3

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.

The LDs are doing better in the South East and East, where some councils are counting today.

So far the LDs and Tories have each had about the same numbers of councillors elected nationally.

TheScreamingEagles · May 3

That swing in Blackpool, ouch.

DavidL · May 3

What I would guess with Khan is that they will have some extremely disappointing results in some of the inner London boroughs where they usually weigh the Labour vote and the Gaza factor has been strong but this will be offset by Labour doing much better than normal in the outer boroughs resulting in a reasonably comfortable Khan win. Starmer will be pretty happy with that too because it is these outer boroughs where the remaining seats to be won are.

bondegezou · May 3

There’s been some discussion of the 2021 failure in London mayoral polling, which significantly underestimated the Conservatives’ Shaun “Partygate” Bailey. I wondered if this was a regular issue, so looked back further. In 2016, the London polls were spot on. In 2012, they were good, but slightly underestimated Labour. In 2008, the polls were OK: they tended to overestimate both candidates’ first round results, but the greater error was overestimating Labour.

There was a polling failure in 2021, but it’s not a systemic, London thing.

bondegezou · May 3

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
When does the London Mayor count take place?

Starts Saturday morning. Result expected around lunchtime.

IanB2 · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
When does the London Mayor count take place?
Tomorrow I think

Verified today, counted tomorrow.

Sharp agents will know the result from the verification, so we might get some clues from todays spin.

TimS · May 3

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
The LDs are doing better in the South East and East, where some councils are counting today.

So far the LDs and Tories have each had about the same numbers of councillors elected nationally.

We really need to pick up a couple of councils, otherwise the story’s all going to be about Labour and the Conservatives. The mayorals don’t help given we’re not competitive in any.

noneoftheabove · May 3

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.

His plan, for those who listen to him, is completing the reverse takeover of the Tories, not replacing them.

"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”

numbertwelve · May 3

A terrrrrible night for the Tories.

Steady as she goes for Labour I think. Not much that is suggesting they won’t be getting a decent GE win in a few months’ time.

bondegezou · May 3

DavidL said:
What I would guess with Khan is that they will have some extremely disappointing results in some of the inner London boroughs where they usually weigh the Labour vote and the Gaza factor has been strong but this will be offset by Labour doing much better than normal in the outer boroughs resulting in a reasonably comfortable Khan win. Starmer will be pretty happy with that too because it is these outer boroughs where the remaining seats to be won are.

Unlike in some contests elsewhere in the country, there isn’t an obvious pro-Gaza candidate/party in London. The Greens have talked about Gaza, but there’s no Workers Party candidates, Aspire aren’t standing, there’s no independent associated with a pro-Gaza position.

DougSeal · May 3

Four PMs in one Parliament? Has that ever happened before? @ydoethur would be the man to ask I guess.

Whatever the historical precedent it's not a good look. A poster with Truss, Sunak and his replacement, Monseur/Madame X*, saying "who voted for them?" I know the answer and I'm not, for very good reason, involved in elections, but you get my drift.

(*although if they can find anyone as good looking as Virginie Gautreau in the Sargent painting they have a chance)

noneoftheabove · May 3

bondegezou said:
There’s been some discussion of the 2021 failure in London mayoral polling, which significantly underestimated the Conservatives’ Shaun “Partygate” Bailey. I wondered if this was a regular issue, so looked back further. In 2016, the London polls were spot on. In 2012, they were good, but slightly underestimated Labour. In 2008, the polls were OK: they tended to overestimate both candidates’ first round results, but the greater error was overestimating Labour.

There was a polling failure in 2021, but it’s not a systemic, London thing.

If it was a regular issue the pollsters would be more likely to take account of it.

If it is a Khan is meh fine or disaster thing, as seems plausible, then we should expect a result much closer than the polls again this time.

LostPassword · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose

No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.

Taz · May 3

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.

Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB

Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.

Leon · May 3

All quite unexciting? Labour doing well - but that was expected. Tories doing really badly - also expected

The only thing of note is the scale of the Blackpool win

It would be genuinely exciting if Khan loses but I really don’t expect that

So all a bit meh

Taz · May 3

numbertwelve said:
A terrrrrible night for the Tories.

Steady as she goes for Labour I think. Not much that is suggesting they won’t be getting a decent GE win in a few months’ time.

Whatever the end result for the other main parties it has been a terrible result for the Tories, in line with the polling, even if they retain Tees Valley and West Mids it will be a disaster for them.

noneoftheabove · May 3

Taz said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB

Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.

So far according to BBC. Conservatives 117 councillors, LDs 114 councillors.

What would be a good result?

DougSeal · May 3

Leon said:
All quite unexciting? Labour doing well - but that was expected. Tories doing really badly - also expected

The only thing of note is the scale of the Blackpool win

It would be genuinely exciting if Khan loses but I really don’t expect that

So all a bit meh

Indeed. This site exists to discuss your holidays and AI. I don't know why we get excited by politics on here. Mere bagatelle.

Benpointer · May 3

TheScreamingEagles said:
That swing in Blackpool, ouch.

It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing
Do-wop, do-wop, do-wop, do-wop, do-wop, do-wop...

another_richard · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.
His plan, for those who listen to him, is completing the reverse takeover of the Tories, not replacing them.

"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”

But who are the people who are supposed to be 'taking over' and what different policies would they bring ?

Farage has always been successful at being against things but he's never had to advocate for an actual coherent political programme.

LostPassword · May 3

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.

If he was serious about replacing the Tories then he'd have been hard at work since Truss was defenestrated, Reform would be making at least dozens of councillor gains. But he's not.

Reform is a vehicle only for Farage's limited interests. It exists as much to prevent any other party emerging to the right of the Tories as to have any success itself. He wants to use it for brinkmanship to gain some sort of concession from the leadership of the Tories, for his personal aggrandisement. It's a very different situation to UKIP.

TimS · May 3

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.

Sort of ironic if his poor performance is due to an informal coalition of Muslim voters who think he’s a genocide enabler, and islamophobes who think he’s a sponsor of terrorism.

noneoftheabove · May 3

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.
His plan, for those who listen to him, is completing the reverse takeover of the Tories, not replacing them.

"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”
But who are the people who are supposed to be 'taking over' and what different policies would they bring ?

Farage has always been successful at being against things but he's never had to advocate for an actual coherent political programme.

Farage is doing the takeover with whatever coat hangers want to ride his tails. Platform wise the biggest advantage he brings to the table is he would allow the Tories to quickly disown the last fourteen years of rubbish government.

TimS · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

Taz said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB

Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.
So far according to BBC. Conservatives 117 councillors, LDs 114 councillors.

What would be a good result?

The MRP prediction had Lib Dems and Tories winning roughly similar numbers of wards (but Tories more actual councillors). So if they manage this it’ll be par.

But you need to surprise on the upside to get any coverage, and Lib Dems do so in locals more often than not. A score in line with polling would be disappointing.

Greens on the other hand are doing very well. Not good news for Labour.

Pro_Rata · May 3

TheScreamingEagles said:
That swing in Blackpool, ouch.

I had it down as a relatively low swing Labour gain (10-15%), but both the Labour performance and the amount that RefUK ate into the Tory vote were at the top end.

26% swing in a seat like this is phenomenal - this is a far better result for Labour than Wellingborough, I think.

Still, RefUK turning up but still coming 3rd here does suggest they are a bit over egged in the polls, but maybe, if they get their act together, only a bit.

Foxy · May 3

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.

Isn't it more that Labour is so dominant in London that it simply isn't possible to get Blackpool sized swings there? A big swing requires a lower starting position surely?

Malmesbury · May 3

DougSeal said:

Leon said:
All quite unexciting? Labour doing well - but that was expected. Tories doing really badly - also expected

The only thing of note is the scale of the Blackpool win

It would be genuinely exciting if Khan loses but I really don’t expect that

So all a bit meh
Indeed. This site exists to discuss your holidays and AI. I don't know why we get excited by politics on here. Mere bagatelle.

I thought this site existed to discuss the legal ambitions of seals?

GIN1138 · May 3

Dreadful results for the Tories... The swing in Blackpool, just six months at most before the general election, is devastating.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

@BJO has been a thorn in labour supporters side but are we seeing labour supporters moving to the greens as well as independent in parts of the country

Malmesbury · May 3

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.

I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.

noneoftheabove · May 3

TimS said:

noneoftheabove said:

Taz said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB

Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.
So far according to BBC. Conservatives 117 councillors, LDs 114 councillors.

What would be a good result?
The MRP prediction had Lib Dems and Tories winning roughly similar numbers of wards (but Tories more actual councillors). So if they manage this it’ll be par.

But you need to surprise on the upside to get any coverage, and Lib Dems do so in locals more often than not. A score in line with polling would be disappointing.

Greens on the other hand are doing very well. Not good news for Labour.

Realistically what the LDs need is to come third in Westminster. That will depend on 1) LDs getting to 30 odd seats and 2) SNP dipping below 30 odd seats.

The results so far seem to indicate 1 is happening. 2 is completely out of their control but heading in the right direction. Not sure why they would be or should be disappointed at the moment.

Gallowgate · May 3

The Conservatives have a councillor on Newcastle City Council for the first time in 32 years so there’s that

another_richard · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.
His plan, for those who listen to him, is completing the reverse takeover of the Tories, not replacing them.

"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”
But who are the people who are supposed to be 'taking over' and what different policies would they bring ?

Farage has always been successful at being against things but he's never had to advocate for an actual coherent political programme.
Farage is doing the takeover with whatever coat hangers want to ride his tails. Platform wise the biggest advantage he brings to the table is he would allow the Tories to quickly disown the last fourteen years of rubbish government.

But that's still being against things and not for something.

And who is going to think that an aged Farage and assorted fan boys would be any better at the actual governing.

Malmesbury · May 3

Foxy said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
Isn't it more that Labour is so dominant in London that it simply isn't possible to get Blackpool sized swings there? A big swing requires a lower starting position surely?

Mayyyyybee

But I think he will underperform the Labour vote in London. Mainly through not getting the vote out.

He will win easily, though.

LostPassword · May 3

TimS said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
Sort of ironic if his poor performance is due to an informal coalition of Muslim voters who think he’s a genocide enabler, and islamophobes who think he’s a sponsor of terrorism.

I guess so. The skill of a politician is to build a winning coalition of voters, reconciling people who disagree with each other on some things to agree on supporting you. To win support from both sides of an argument.

Normal politicians are generally able only to win support from one side of an argument.

The really poor politicians manage to lose support from both sides of an argument.

I don't rate Khan as a politician.

kle4 · May 3

The Tory nightmare is real, and getting worse.

2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.

noneoftheabove · May 3

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.

How many voters have any significant opinion on Hall or had one on Bailey? I read this political blog daily, live in London and know very little about either. I doubt more than 10% of the voters would even be able to recall Shaun Bailey as the previous candidate or identify him from a photo.

The vote is Labour/Tory and Khan/not Khan.

Scott_xP · May 3

@PippaCrerar

Polling guru Sir John Curtice tells @BBCr4today
: “You’re probably looking at one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years." 👀

Malmesbury · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

TimS said:

noneoftheabove said:

Taz said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB

Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.
So far according to BBC. Conservatives 117 councillors, LDs 114 councillors.

What would be a good result?
The MRP prediction had Lib Dems and Tories winning roughly similar numbers of wards (but Tories more actual councillors). So if they manage this it’ll be par.

But you need to surprise on the upside to get any coverage, and Lib Dems do so in locals more often than not. A score in line with polling would be disappointing.

Greens on the other hand are doing very well. Not good news for Labour.
Realistically what the LDs need is to come third in Westminster. That will depend on 1) LDs getting to 30 odd seats and 2) SNP dipping below 30 odd seats.

The results so far seem to indicate 1 is happening. 2 is completely out of their control but heading in the right direction. Not sure why they would be or should be disappointed at the moment.

The Lib Dems are supposed to be the practical party of Social Democrats. Given the political scene, why are all the anti-Conservative votes going to Labour and not more to them?

That is what they should be disappointed about.

Casino_Royale · May 3

GIN1138 said:
Dreadful results for the Tories... The swing in Blackpool, just six months at most before the general election, is devastating.

First by-election where Reform has clocked a decent score, I think.

Scott_xP · May 3

@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Also wants Boris Johnson role and reshuffle to get more from right of party into cabinet.

noneoftheabove · May 3

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.
His plan, for those who listen to him, is completing the reverse takeover of the Tories, not replacing them.

"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”
But who are the people who are supposed to be 'taking over' and what different policies would they bring ?

Farage has always been successful at being against things but he's never had to advocate for an actual coherent political programme.
Farage is doing the takeover with whatever coat hangers want to ride his tails. Platform wise the biggest advantage he brings to the table is he would allow the Tories to quickly disown the last fourteen years of rubbish government.
But that's still being against things and not for something.

And who is going to think that an aged Farage and assorted fan boys would be any better at the actual governing.

They will be in opposition. And I for one, think Farage would be a more effictive opposition candidate than the likes of Badenoch, Patel, Cleverley et al.

Foxy · May 3

Gallowgate said:
The Conservatives have a councillor on Newcastle City Council for the first time in 32 years so there’s that

A bit like the Tory gains in Leicester in last years locals, eventually a one party state becomes intolerable.

In Leicester there also was a feud between the elected mayor and the councillors.

kle4 · May 3

Gallowgate said:
The Conservatives have a councillor on Newcastle City Council for the first time in 32 years so there’s that

I will laugh heartily if that makes it into the talking points of whatever poor junior minister the government sends out to explain its not that bad really.

LostPassword · May 3

We've kinda glossed over the Blackpool South result, already looking forward to further results to come. The Guardian quote Prof Curtice to put the result into its proper context.

"The honest truth is the result in Blackpool South was spectacular. It was the third biggest swing from Conservative to Labour in post-war in postwar byelection history. And it’s the third biggest drop in the Conservative vote in postwar byelection history.

The trouble is, we’ve rather used to the spectacular in parliamentary byelections in this parliament. This is now the fifth by election in which the swing has been over 20%. There haven’t been much more than a dozen of those in the whole of the post war period.

When was the last time that such swings occurred as more than a rare event? Well, it was the parliament of 1992 to 1997 which ended with Tony Blair winning a landslide victory."

GIN1138 · May 3

kle4 said:
The Tory nightmare is real, and getting worse.

2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.

I suspect this is the Con nadir, at the local level, anyway (the overall nadir is still to come at Election 24)

Once they move into Opposition and Labour into government, the long, slow process of rebuilding their decimated local base will begin (that's usually how the political cycle works)

HYUFD · May 3

Clearly a good night for Labour winning Blackpool South on a big swing and taking control of some key battleground councils like Redditch and Thurrock.

However a few crumbs of comfort for the Tories, beating Reform for second in Blackpool S, just and also retaining control of Harlow council by 1 seat.

We await more local results and the PCC and some Mayoral results today

Benpointer · May 3

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
Isn't it more that Labour is so dominant in London that it simply isn't possible to get Blackpool sized swings there? A big swing requires a lower starting position surely?

Mayyyyybee

But I think he will underperform the Labour vote in London. Mainly through not getting the vote out.

He will win easily, though.

Point of pedantry: if Khan underperforms the Labour vote in London that won't be through not getting the vote out, since the vote that he's underperforming must by definition have come out.

kle4 · May 3

Foxy said:

Gallowgate said:
The Conservatives have a councillor on Newcastle City Council for the first time in 32 years so there’s that
A bit like the Tory gains in Leicester in last years locals, eventually a one party state becomes intolerable.

In Leicester there also was a feud between the elected mayor and the councillors.

Unfortunately that may mean a one party state can resume once the feuding folk eventually move on in a cycle or two.

Pro_Rata · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:
@BJO has been a thorn in labour supporters side but are we seeing labour supporters moving to the greens as well as independent in parts of the country

I've never switched back from voting Green in locals from the Corbyn years. That is very much a local decision, Greens are hard working ward councillors and totally dominant electorally, and I think Gaza adds only small additional salience in this ward.

But I'll be back inside with Labour come GE day.

What I'm looking for locally to me are the results in Dewsbury & Batley constituency where a number of local Independent Muslim candidates are standing.

Having combined the majority Muslim bits of both Dewsbury and Batley & Spen constituencies into a 51% Muslim constituency, and no defending Labour MP* it has to be a top ten WPB target at the GE

*Leadbeater has opted to defend the much more marginal Spen Valley which would be nominally Tory, but is "her patch"

Malmesbury · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.
How many voters have any significant opinion on Hall or had one on Bailey? I read this political blog daily, live in London and know very little about either. I doubt more than 10% of the voters would even be able to recall Shaun Bailey as the previous candidate or identify him from a photo.

The vote is Labour/Tory and Khan/not Khan.

Bailey had more visibility in a better way, as a candidate, than Hall does.

He was a better candidate for London Mayor than she is.

Leon · May 3

DougSeal said:

Leon said:
All quite unexciting? Labour doing well - but that was expected. Tories doing really badly - also expected

The only thing of note is the scale of the Blackpool win

It would be genuinely exciting if Khan loses but I really don’t expect that

So all a bit meh
Indeed. This site exists to discuss your holidays and AI. I don't know why we get excited by politics on here. Mere bagatelle.

Count yourself lucky. I nearly did a comment about a new AI video

But actually I was making a modestly sensible point. A Starmer win is now so baked in, these results are quite Yeah, whatever. It’s difficult to get geekily enthused. They’re also not quite apocalyptically bad enough that Sunak is threatened. So again: meh

The actual General Election, now that WILL be very exciting. We might see the end of one of the western world’s most historic political parties

ToryJim · May 3

kle4 said:
The Tory nightmare is real, and getting worse.

2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.

Well in 1998 the Conservatives managed a couple of hundred gains. Might be difficult next year to do that given what’s up and when it was last contested.

Malmesbury · May 3

Scott_xP said:
@PippaCrerar

Polling guru Sir John Curtice tells @BBCr4today
: “You’re probably looking at one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years." 👀

That’s your bookend, right there.

Scott_xP · May 3

@mortenmorland

From the archive...

noneoftheabove · May 3

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.
How many voters have any significant opinion on Hall or had one on Bailey? I read this political blog daily, live in London and know very little about either. I doubt more than 10% of the voters would even be able to recall Shaun Bailey as the previous candidate or identify him from a photo.

The vote is Labour/Tory and Khan/not Khan.
Bailey had more visibility in a better way, as a candidate, than Hall does.

He was a better candidate for London Mayor than she is.

I don't disagree. But I think it doesn't really matter as both are close to invisible.

SouthamObserver · May 3

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
Isn't it more that Labour is so dominant in London that it simply isn't possible to get Blackpool sized swings there? A big swing requires a lower starting position surely?

Mayyyyybee

But I think he will underperform the Labour vote in London. Mainly through not getting the vote out.

He will win easily, though.
Point of pedantry: if Khan underperforms the Labour vote in London that won't be through not getting the vote out, since the vote that he's underperforming must by definition have come out.

Don't forget there are London Assembly elections too. Labour will win those at a canter.

Ghedebrav · May 3

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.

The firm picture the media present, and popular imagination holds, of London as a Labour fiefdom, has been demonstrated time and again to be wrong. Yet it persists. Shaun Bailey - hardly a towering statesman - turned out a pretty decent vote last time round.

I don’t dislike Khan as much as everyone else seems to (tbh don’t really understand why he is so disliked, at least by non-nutters/racists) but they could have done with a new and more dynamic/inspirational candidate. If Susan Hall does do well it will reflect terribly on him; she is unquestionably the worst candidate any major party has put up for the mayoralty.

HYUFD · May 3

ToryJim said:

kle4 said:
The Tory nightmare is real, and getting worse.

2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.
Well in 1998 the Conservatives managed a couple of hundred gains. Might be difficult next year to do that given what’s up and when it was last contested.

By next May a Starmer government could be battling strikes, inflation and slow growth and have responsiibility for immigration, it could be a different picture entirely and the Tories would get the protest vote for the first time in over a decade.

Though I suspect it will take a year or 2 for Starmer's government to really become unpopular

kle4 · May 3

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Also wants Boris Johnson role and reshuffle to get more from right of party into cabinet.

Boris doesn't want a role. Rishi has failed to recover things post Truss and must carry the bag for that regardless of the factors also at play, but Boris not being around is his own choice.

And whilst Rishi has been inconsistent he has gone pretty hard to the right on issues like Rwanda. What else can he attempt to please them?

Leave the ECHR? Sure, but not likely to swing many votes.
Huge tax cuts? If they could they'd have done it already.

algarkirk · May 3

Cumbria PCC result in among the earlier ones, and tells us, I think, quite a bit about the fate of the current Cumbria MPs (5 Tory, 0 Labour + Tim Farron.)

Labour win with 22% swing.

No other elections in Cumbria.

SouthamObserver · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.
His plan, for those who listen to him, is completing the reverse takeover of the Tories, not replacing them.

"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”
But who are the people who are supposed to be 'taking over' and what different policies would they bring ?

Farage has always been successful at being against things but he's never had to advocate for an actual coherent political programme.
Farage is doing the takeover with whatever coat hangers want to ride his tails. Platform wise the biggest advantage he brings to the table is he would allow the Tories to quickly disown the last fourteen years of rubbish government.
But that's still being against things and not for something.

And who is going to think that an aged Farage and assorted fan boys would be any better at the actual governing.
They will be in opposition. And I for one, think Farage would be a more effictive opposition candidate than the likes of Badenoch, Patel, Cleverley et al.

Farage is even more bone idle, even more interested in money and even less collegiate than Boris Johnson. He would be an awful LOTO.

Roger · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:
@BJO has been a thorn in labour supporters side but are we seeing labour supporters moving to the greens as well as independent in parts of the country

GAZA. Vote against the Tories but where a decent alternative to Labour exists (Independent- Lib Dem- Green) take it.

And it's not just Muslims.......

GIN1138 · May 3

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Surely a lot of Tory MPs will be looking at these results and be thinking why not roll the dice one last time?

What have they got to lose?

LostPassword · May 3

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:
All quite unexciting? Labour doing well - but that was expected. Tories doing really badly - also expected

The only thing of note is the scale of the Blackpool win

It would be genuinely exciting if Khan loses but I really don’t expect that

So all a bit meh
Indeed. This site exists to discuss your holidays and AI. I don't know why we get excited by politics on here. Mere bagatelle.
Count yourself lucky. I nearly did a comment about a new AI video

But actually I was making a modestly sensible point. A Starmer win is now so baked in, these results are quite Yeah, whatever. It’s difficult to get geekily enthused. They’re also not quite apocalyptically bad enough that Sunak is threatened. So again: meh

The actual General Election, now that WILL be very exciting. We might see the end of one of the western world’s most historic political parties

At this stage on general election night we will have the vast majority of the results in. We still have more than a day to wait for the London Mayoral result. The drawn-out nature of the count does make it less exciting.

Scott_xP · May 3

@AvaSantina

As Tories suffer ‘worst losses in 40 years’, Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells Radio 4 that the public are sick of the left’s “wokeist agenda”

noneoftheabove · May 3

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Also wants Boris Johnson role and reshuffle to get more from right of party into cabinet.
Boris doesn't want a role. Rishi has failed to recover things post Truss and must carry the bag for that regardless of the factors also at play, but Boris not being around is his own choice.

And whilst Rishi has been inconsistent he has gone pretty hard to the right on issues like Rwanda. What else can he attempt to please them?

Leave the ECHR? Sure, but not likely to swing many votes.
Huge tax cuts? If they could they'd have done it already.

Cut red tape and reduce waste in the civil service.

kle4 · May 3

Scott_xP said:
@PippaCrerar

Polling guru Sir John Curtice tells @BBCr4today
: “You’re probably looking at one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years." 👀

Ouch. That's a powerful comment it is hard to hide from. Sir John has no axe to grind and no need to spin.

SouthamObserver · May 3

LostPassword said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is fantasy to expect Khan to lose
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.

Correct.

Mexicanpete · May 3

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Also wants Boris Johnson role and reshuffle to get more from right of party into cabinet.

Lord Johnson of Henley and Uxbridge, or Lord Johnson of Hartlepool?

IanB2 · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

Benpointer said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
If Farage is serious about promoting RefUK as a Tory replacement/takeover he needs to saya so act now to rally enough candidates to cover virtually every GB seat.
His plan, for those who listen to him, is completing the reverse takeover of the Tories, not replacing them.

"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”
But who are the people who are supposed to be 'taking over' and what different policies would they bring ?

Farage has always been successful at being against things but he's never had to advocate for an actual coherent political programme.
Farage is doing the takeover with whatever coat hangers want to ride his tails. Platform wise the biggest advantage he brings to the table is he would allow the Tories to quickly disown the last fourteen years of rubbish government.
But that's still being against things and not for something.

And who is going to think that an aged Farage and assorted fan boys would be any better at the actual governing.
They will be in opposition. And I for one, think Farage would be a more effictive opposition candidate than the likes of Badenoch, Patel, Cleverley et al.

The challenge of opposition is getting right the balance between getting noticed and being sensible and credible. Doing one or the other is easy; doing both is tough.

Sandpit · May 3

TheScreamingEagles said:
That swing in Blackpool, ouch.

That’s not a swing, it’s the Big Dipper.

eek · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Also wants Boris Johnson role and reshuffle to get more from right of party into cabinet.
Boris doesn't want a role. Rishi has failed to recover things post Truss and must carry the bag for that regardless of the factors also at play, but Boris not being around is his own choice.

And whilst Rishi has been inconsistent he has gone pretty hard to the right on issues like Rwanda. What else can he attempt to please them?

Leave the ECHR? Sure, but not likely to swing many votes.
Huge tax cuts? If they could they'd have done it already.
Cut red tape and reduce waste in the civil service.

A lot of that red tape was created by Brexit because we now have to do things at a scale that was irrelevant before Brexit when most trade was internal EU so no effort required

Foxy · May 3

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
That swing in Blackpool, ouch.
That’s not a swing, it’s the Big Dipper.

Positively a Dutch Salute!

kle4 · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Also wants Boris Johnson role and reshuffle to get more from right of party into cabinet.
Boris doesn't want a role. Rishi has failed to recover things post Truss and must carry the bag for that regardless of the factors also at play, but Boris not being around is his own choice.

And whilst Rishi has been inconsistent he has gone pretty hard to the right on issues like Rwanda. What else can he attempt to please them?

Leave the ECHR? Sure, but not likely to swing many votes.
Huge tax cuts? If they could they'd have done it already.
Cut red tape and reduce waste in the civil service.

Ah yes, the magical reform fairy option.

The kind of thing that may be a good idea, but is completely unspecific and whilst a solution to some ills, won't solve as much as claimed, and if it would be that easy why would it not have happened already.

It's the counterpart to 'more money' as a solution to things.

Scott_xP · May 3

IanB2 said:
The challenge of opposition is getting right the balance between getting noticed and being sensible and credible. Doing one or the other is easy; doing both is tough.

For the first couple of years being noticed is more important. It's only as the election approaches you need to appear credible.

Leon · May 3

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:
All quite unexciting? Labour doing well - but that was expected. Tories doing really badly - also expected

The only thing of note is the scale of the Blackpool win

It would be genuinely exciting if Khan loses but I really don’t expect that

So all a bit meh
Indeed. This site exists to discuss your holidays and AI. I don't know why we get excited by politics on here. Mere bagatelle.
Count yourself lucky. I nearly did a comment about a new AI video

But actually I was making a modestly sensible point. A Starmer win is now so baked in, these results are quite Yeah, whatever. It’s difficult to get geekily enthused. They’re also not quite apocalyptically bad enough that Sunak is threatened. So again: meh

The actual General Election, now that WILL be very exciting. We might see the end of one of the western world’s most historic political parties
At this stage on general election night we will have the vast majority of the results in. We still have more than a day to wait for the London Mayoral result. The drawn-out nature of the count does make it less exciting.

Yes it’s also that - good spot. I LOVE election night drama, also big referendums

I remember my delight when they announced the exit poll in 2019. I remember my wobble-wibble WTF when Brexit went Leave - that was TOO exciting

And the intense, almost sexual relief when Scotland said NO to secession

Lib Dems holding Newent, and us learning about it 3 days later, lacks the same theatrical impact

Stuartinromford · May 3

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
That swing in Blackpool, ouch.
That’s not a swing, it’s the Big Dipper.

Meanwhile, in "cruel but funny" news,

https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1786253358442979619

eek · May 3

GIN1138 said:

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Surely a lot of Tory MPs will be looking at these results and be thinking why not roll the dice one last time?

What have they got to lose?

I think any sane Tory MP will be more focused on their post Parliamentary career - little point changing things when the difference is at best marginal and won’t help you personally

Gallowgate · May 3

algarkirk said:
Cumbria PCC result in among the earlier ones, and tells us, I think, quite a bit about the fate of the current Cumbria MPs (5 Tory, 0 Labour + Tim Farron.)

Labour win with 22% swing.

No other elections in Cumbria.

Chuckle

ToryJim · May 3

Scott_xP said:
@AvaSantina

As Tories suffer ‘worst losses in 40 years’, Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells Radio 4 that the public are sick of the left’s “wokeist agenda”

Boy is she stupid.

Scott_xP · May 3

@DPJHodges

One other thing. Even if Houchen and Street hang on, they will only have won because of their personal brands, and by distancing themselves from - or openly defining themselves against - Rishi Sunak and the government. And a number of Tory MPs will take a lesson from that.

numbertwelve · May 3

The Tories are out of time. Yes they could roll the dice on a new leader. At best they will mitigate some defeat. But it isn’t going to change the facts that people just want them gone.

Should they roll the dice? Hard to say. I wouldn’t really blame them for trying.

Pulpstar · May 3

noneoftheabove said:

Taz said:

TimS said:
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.

So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.

Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB

Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.
So far according to BBC. Conservatives 117 councillors, LDs 114 councillors.

What would be a good result?

Beating the Conservatives in raw councillor numbers tonight ?

Foxy · May 3

Gallowgate said:

algarkirk said:
Cumbria PCC result in among the earlier ones, and tells us, I think, quite a bit about the fate of the current Cumbria MPs (5 Tory, 0 Labour + Tim Farron.)

Labour win with 22% swing.

No other elections in Cumbria.
Chuckle

Ashworth telling Gullis that he is toast:

https://twitter.com/LondonEconomic/status/1786290961259057289?t=8TXKipjBTWZbpr17FoJIxQ&s=19

Scott_xP · May 3

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_xP said:
@nickeardleybbc
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”

She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”

Surely a lot of Tory MPs will be looking at these results and be thinking why not roll the dice one last time?

What have they got to lose?
I think any sane Tory MP will be more focused on their post Parliamentary career - little point changing things when the difference is at best marginal and won’t help you personally

Richi is a drag on the ticket. Every Tory MP would stand a better chance of winning if he was not their leader.

FF43 · May 3

DavidL said:
FPT

What is striking me is the differentials between holds and losses. Currently, on the BBC, at 117 holds and 122 losses. If that pattern continues to hold and the Tories lose just over half of the seats they have up this will truly have been catastrophic results, way beyond the very bad that was predicted.

For the first time I do begin to wonder if the Tories can afford to go into an election led by Sunak. They made such a decision before with IDS but (a) he was an idiot and (b) that was in opposition. It is a dreadful dilemma for them.

There was analysis a few weeks back. Those that have switched from Conservative to Reform and Labour are happy with their new choices and have no intention of changing their minds. The long term goal should be to win both lots back again. The immediate aim should be to hang into as many of the remaining instinctive Conservatives as possible. These are the Cameroons - people like yourself I think. The seat loss will be devastating, but it is what it is.

TimS · May 3

algarkirk said:
Cumbria PCC result in among the earlier ones, and tells us, I think, quite a bit about the fate of the current Cumbria MPs (5 Tory, 0 Labour + Tim Farron.)

Labour win with 22% swing.

No other elections in Cumbria.

The PCCs are interesting I think because in the vast majority of cases the voters don’t know the candidate from Adam, don’t really know what they will do and don’t expect them to make much difference to policing either way, therefore they are more likely to vote on purely national party lines. Best indicator for the GE.

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