Tim Scott suspends his presidential campaign https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/12/tim-scott-presidential-campaign-00126793 ...he remained at risk of failing to qualify for the next debate, which had even higher donor and polling criteria. The polling threshold for that debate, on Dec. 6 in Alabama, is 6 percent, a mark Scott has not been hitting. And the campaign had dwindling resources to try and improve his numbers, having spent significantly more than it had brought in. The campaign had $12.4 million in expenditures during the third fundraising quarter, while raising $4.6 million...
Five Republicans left then:
Donald Trump Ron DeSantis Vivek Ramaswarmy Nikki Haley Chris Christie
(Plus Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson, who theoretically have campaigns still going).
Can’t see Christie making the next debate either, so we’ll be down to four serious contenders before the primaries even start. Does Trump turn up for the December debate, if it’s only going to be four of them?
Of course not, the debate is the race for second and he has already won.
A more concentrated field doesn’t help him though. It creates a focal point around an alternative.
If DeSantis was smart he’d see now is not his time (if there ever will come a time, but that’s another point) and bow out. If it becomes Trump v Haley it potentially becomes interesting.
The two way Trump v Haley breaks 50:15 at the moment. It is noticably better than Trump v RDS which is around 64:12.
On this side of the pond, observers overestimate how open Republicans are to changing their minds on Trump, and think events will change things. Yet his polling over the last year has steadily grown from mid 40s to high 50s despite numerous criminal trials, him starting to sound even more mad and heading further down the dictator is best route.
Western liberal democracy needs a lot of luck and good economic news over the next 12 months.
Trump was President before and Western liberal democracy did not end. Le Pen is also ahead in French polls, Meloni is PM in Italy it is not as if the US is alone in shifting back to the populist right again potentially.
Though if Trump is convicted and jailed next year I doubt he will actually end up GOP candidate let alone President, though he may run as an Independent
Perhaps Rishi Sunak is going to appoint David Cameron as First Lord of the Treasury. He can then step back as Prime Minister Tech Bro and only do the interesting parts of the job like rimming Elon Musk.
I can't think of an example of an immediate switch in a cabinet reshuffle, but Palmerston was Home Secretary about a year after having been Foreign Secretary.
How is Cameron as FS going to work without him being an MP or a Lord?
Instant appointment to the Lords. Was the same with Mandelson.
It does however break the convention that we thought had been established that the Great Offices of State are not granted to the peerage - Carrington was the last and it has for some time been assumed final FS from the Lords.
Maybe he got sick of being bed blocked by Blair and Brown (allegedly) not wanting to go to the Lord's and thought this is the best way?
I thought the holdout was QEII and then Brown, rather than Blair. Liz wasn’t particularly keen on elevating Blair to the Order of the Garter, rumour has it, and had to be persuaded in order to clear the backlog of gongs that were due to other PMs. Brown genuinely isn’t interested in one though, I think.
Foreign Secretary is probably one of the better cabinet posts to give to a non-MP, because there's not much legislation or spending involved, and the PM nicks all the best bits of the job even more than for other departments.
But still. It's a bit weird if Cameron is brought back as FS, when he resigned over the defeat of the central plank of his foreign policy - keeping Britain in the EU.
Tim Scott suspends his presidential campaign https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/12/tim-scott-presidential-campaign-00126793 ...he remained at risk of failing to qualify for the next debate, which had even higher donor and polling criteria. The polling threshold for that debate, on Dec. 6 in Alabama, is 6 percent, a mark Scott has not been hitting. And the campaign had dwindling resources to try and improve his numbers, having spent significantly more than it had brought in. The campaign had $12.4 million in expenditures during the third fundraising quarter, while raising $4.6 million...
Five Republicans left then:
Donald Trump Ron DeSantis Vivek Ramaswarmy Nikki Haley Chris Christie
(Plus Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson, who theoretically have campaigns still going).
Can’t see Christie making the next debate either, so we’ll be down to four serious contenders before the primaries even start. Does Trump turn up for the December debate, if it’s only going to be four of them?
Of course not, the debate is the race for second and he has already won.
A more concentrated field doesn’t help him though. It creates a focal point around an alternative.
If DeSantis was smart he’d see now is not his time (if there ever will come a time, but that’s another point) and bow out. If it becomes Trump v Haley it potentially becomes interesting.
The two way Trump v Haley breaks 50:15 at the moment. It is noticably better than Trump v RDS which is around 64:12.
On this side of the pond, observers overestimate how open Republicans are to changing their minds on Trump, and think events will change things. Yet his polling over the last year has steadily grown from mid 40s to high 50s despite numerous criminal trials, him starting to sound even more mad and heading further down the dictator is best route.
Western liberal democracy needs a lot of luck and good economic news over the next 12 months.
Trump was President before and Western liberal democracy did not end. Le Pen is also ahead in French polls, Meloni is PM in Italy it is not as if the US is alone in shifting back to the populist right again potentially.
Though if Trump is convicted and jailed next year I doubt he will actually end up GOP candidate let alone President, though he may run as an Independent
I don't follow French politics but Le Pen jnr doesn't seem the type to steal and rig elections. There is clearly historical baggage from her fathers party but her own vision, as much as I may disagree with much of it, does not seem like an existential threat to democracy. Trump is.
Foreign Secretary is probably one of the better cabinet posts to give to a non-MP, because there's not much legislation or spending involved, and the PM nicks all the best bits of the job even more than for other departments.
But still. It's a bit weird if Cameron is brought back as FS, when he resigned over the defeat of the central plank of his foreign policy - keeping Britain in the EU.
Foreign Secretary is probably one of the better cabinet posts to give to a non-MP, because there's not much legislation or spending involved, and the PM nicks all the best bits of the job even more than for other departments.
But still. It's a bit weird if Cameron is brought back as FS, when he resigned over the defeat of the central plank of his foreign policy - keeping Britain in the EU.
Maybe Rishi is keen to sort out the relationship with the EU rather than leaving it to the next government?
Dave wants to make amends by cleaning up after himself?
Then again, perhaps the PM is just after a bit of advice.
Foreign Secretary is probably one of the better cabinet posts to give to a non-MP, because there's not much legislation or spending involved, and the PM nicks all the best bits of the job even more than for other departments.
But still. It's a bit weird if Cameron is brought back as FS, when he resigned over the defeat of the central plank of his foreign policy - keeping Britain in the EU.
He was also obsessed about attacking MENA countries.
Cameron would be an idiot to come back. He’d immediately be frustrated not to have the power, and….. whisper this quietly…. he is neither very good at detail nor very popular.
Lord Osborne from the Lords in DBT (and minister for Machiavellian tricks) might have helped Rishi in a Brown/Mandelson way.
If Cameron is made FS in the lords do Labour need to have their Shadow FS in the Lords and who is the current Labour Shadow FS?
No, most senior minister of state handles business in the Commons. The Secretary of State answers questions etc in the Lords, opposite a shadow Labour minister.
Suella sacked and Dave back would mean I’ve got my fucking party back.
For how long? I can't imagine many of the members who voted for Truss for leader or the MPs who preferred Suella will stay quiet for long. If Sunak thinks he can make a last stand of popular Tories pre Johnson I think he's in for a rough ride. If I were Cameron, getting involved again now would also be a risk to my legacy I wouldn't want to take - it only looks good in comparison to Johnson and Truss, if he gets back into the mire again with Sunak then everything that has been could get resurrected, and future things will stick that much harder.
According to the latest YouGov polling, only 18% of the public have a positive opinion of Cameron. That makes him less popular than Boris Johnson, John Major and Gordon Brown.
Suella sacked and Dave back would mean I’ve got my fucking party back.
For how long? I can't imagine many of the members who voted for Truss for leader or the MPs who preferred Suella will stay quiet for long. If Sunak thinks he can make a last stand of popular Tories pre Johnson I think he's in for a rough ride. If I were Cameron, getting involved again now would also be a risk to my legacy I wouldn't want to take - it only looks good in comparison to Johnson and Truss, if he gets back into the mire again with Sunak then everything that has been could get resurrected, and future things will stick that much harder.
Remember all the accusations about things Cameron tried to do during Covid for the firms he was advising? Well the inquiry is due to get to them in 2024….
Suella sacked and Dave back would mean I’ve got my fucking party back.
For how long? I can't imagine many of the members who voted for Truss for leader or the MPs who preferred Suella will stay quiet for long. If Sunak thinks he can make a last stand of popular Tories pre Johnson I think he's in for a rough ride. If I were Cameron, getting involved again now would also be a risk to my legacy I wouldn't want to take - it only looks good in comparison to Johnson and Truss, if he gets back into the mire again with Sunak then everything that has been could get resurrected, and future things will stick that much harder.
Being Foreign Secretary is a fairly safe job. You get to do the foreign trips and a bit of solemn grandstanding, but you’re rarely called upon to comment on critical domestic issues of the day. Douglas-Home was FS under Heath in a similar way.
Wow if Cameron comes back that would be an amazing rabbit out of the hat . He’d have to be made a Lord first . Perhaps it’s some advisory role rather than FS . All will be revealed soon .
According to the latest YouGov polling, only 18% of the public have a positive opinion of Cameron. That makes him less popular than Boris Johnson, John Major and Gordon Brown.
Was thinking about this. While Cameron looks good to obsessives and centrists in the light of what came next, his legacy is tied up in Brexit and most people will remember him for starting this Tory shit show.
It's like Starmer bringing Blair back. Whatever his political talents are, he is tainted in the eyes of the electorate.
Wow if Cameron comes back that would be an amazing rabbit out of the hat . He’d have to be made a Lord first . Perhaps it’s some advisory role rather than FS . All will be revealed soon .
Actually, with AI you could appoint anyone you like anywhere from history. Thatcher to Home Sec. Richard the Lionheart as Foreign Secretary thanks to his deep experience of the Levant. Vlad “the Impaler” Dracul as Schools Minister. Moominpappa as Business Sec (one for the Mumsnet crowd, there). Anus McPenis - a completely fictitious failed Scottish punk star, invented by me 13 seconds ago - as Deputy PM
I have many and several continuing health issues but Sunak sacking Braverman and Cameron in no 10 is quite a boost
Maybe get Hague and Osborne back as well
The Blue Brothers: "We're getting the band back together."
Reshuffle?
Does that mean we are getting another pair of Transport and Housing Ministers.
They've been in for 13 and 8 months already, so we are overdue some more.
I wonder what Mr Cameron would be, apart from perhaps a new member of the Lords.
While Cameron looks good to obsessives and centrists in the light of what came next, his legacy is tied up in Brexit and most people will remember him for starting this Tory shit show.
I'd say that Mr Cameron's legacy is of firm declarations that he will do X, then running away when it lands on his desk.
See you all later; this has the feel of a "first world problems" week for me.
You know in all of those nuclear war films / tv shows? The various people sat at monitors then one leans forward eyes widened before the klaxon starts sounding?
Thats what reshuffle day is like when we are awaiting the return of Bobby Ewing from the shower.
Wow if Cameron comes back that would be an amazing rabbit out of the hat . He’d have to be made a Lord first . Perhaps it’s some advisory role rather than FS . All will be revealed soon .
This makes a lot more sense electorally than going further to the right, but if he tries to go back towards the centre is Sunak strong enough to hold the party together?
Sue Ellen Braverman's parting shot - "I will have more to say in due course" - is scarcely surprising, but it doesn't bode well.
Heck, if you’re going to roll the dice why not just go for it and thaw out some of the other Tories of yore. Willie Hague, Mrs May, Osborne. Just let them have one last battle!
Actually, with AI you could appoint anyone you like anywhere from history. Thatcher to Home Sec. Richard the Lionheart as Foreign Secretary thanks to his deep experience of the Levant. Vlad “the Impaler” Dracul as Schools Minister. Moominpappa as Business Sec (one for the Mumsnet crowd, there). Anus McPenis - a completely fictitious failed Scottish punk star, invented by me 13 seconds ago - as Deputy PM
Of course, even if left for an infinite period of time, no AI could imagine a scenario in which Rees-Mogg or Bone became ministers.
Heck, if you’re going to roll the dice why not just go for it and thaw out some of the other Tories of yore. Willie Hague, Mrs May, Osborne. Just let them have one last battle!
Heck, if you’re going to roll the dice why not just go for it and thaw out some of the other Tories of yore. Willie Hague, Mrs May, Osborne. Just let them have one last battle!
Its not a stupid idea. The problem for the Conservative Party is that all the Conservatibves have gone to be replaced by Tory lunatics. Bring back sensible politicians and that poll deficit could close. Significantly.
Heck, if you’re going to roll the dice why not just go for it and thaw out some of the other Tories of yore. Willie Hague, Mrs May, Osborne. Just let them have one last battle!
Wow if Cameron comes back that would be an amazing rabbit out of the hat . He’d have to be made a Lord first . Perhaps it’s some advisory role rather than FS . All will be revealed soon .
This makes a lot more sense electorally than going further to the right, but if he tries to go back towards the centre is Sunak strong enough to hold the party together?
Sue Ellen Braverman's parting shot - "I will have more to say in due course" - is scarcely surprising, but it doesn't bode well.
I’m wondering the implications for the what happens post SC ruling on Wednesday . If the shock of all shocks happens with Cameron this would suggest that Sunak is reluctant to go down the route of pulling out of the ECHR if the government loses .
Suella sacked and Dave back would mean I’ve got my fucking party back.
That may be so, but looking at the smoking wreckage of a formerly functioning, well-run, self-confident country playing it's role at the heart of Europe, a member of the single market with full freedom of movement for its citizens around their own continent, I am not delighted at all.
Cameron and Osborne precipitated disaster for this country. Austerity and Brexit. What a legacy.
Comments
I’ll be voting Tory.
I ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Dave.
Though if Trump is convicted and jailed next year I doubt he will actually end up GOP candidate let alone President, though he may run as an Independent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTN_W-9Ypl0
It might be that Suella finds herself a diminished figure now, but perhaps not.
But still. It's a bit weird if Cameron is brought back as FS, when he resigned over the defeat of the central plank of his foreign policy - keeping Britain in the EU.
THE PEOPLE'S VOTE
One fetish ought to be enough for anyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMCthi3pFEQ
Lord Cameron incoming
Dave wants to make amends by cleaning up after himself?
Then again, perhaps the PM is just after a bit of advice.
YER FUCKING DEAD SUNAK! I WILL FUCKING CLAW YOUR EYES OUT YER EFFETE BASTARD
Great!
She should STFU
Lord Osborne from the Lords in DBT (and minister for Machiavellian tricks) might have helped Rishi in a Brown/Mandelson way.
Dave’s phone is switched off.
Only one tick.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/UK-prime-ministers/all
I have many and several continuing health issues but Sunak sacking Braverman and Cameron in no 10 is quite a boost
Maybe get Hague and Osborne back as well
It's like Starmer bringing Blair back. Whatever his political talents are, he is tainted in the eyes of the electorate.
Election winning theatre or just unfathomable bollocks?
The political reporter the BBC has on looks very excited, bless his socks, he's one of us!
Rishi last reset is literally a massive gamble but he has nothing to lose.
Clare Coutinho as new CotE??
Is that like one of those orgies Nadine was talking about ?
Henry visits PB.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1723989242097885574?t=XHgVdUTKn9O61uHuszh1hg&s=19
Does that mean we are getting another pair of Transport and Housing Ministers.
They've been in for 13 and 8 months already, so we are overdue some more.
I wonder what Mr Cameron would be, apart from perhaps a new member of the Lords. I'd say that Mr Cameron's legacy is of firm declarations that he will do X, then running away when it lands on his desk.
See you all later; this has the feel of a "first world problems" week for me.
Monogamy is too cruel a rule.
I once did say to Dave that winning a general election is like an orgy, you’re never sure who to thank afterwards.
Thats what reshuffle day is like when we are awaiting the return of Bobby Ewing from the shower.
Sue Ellen Braverman's parting shot - "I will have more to say in due course" - is scarcely surprising, but it doesn't bode well.
* Assuming Truss doesn't count.
He won't be that bold though.
wasis the futureonce.Cameron and Osborne precipitated disaster for this country. Austerity and Brexit. What a legacy.
They are still pissed he destroyed them.
From 62 MPs to 8 MPs on Dave’s watch.
Wow.
Politics is endlessly fascinating.