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Another tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited June 2023
    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    If that's the Telegraph's idea of middle class then I must be working class.
    Journalists routintely talk about a middle-class that by any normal definition is usually the upper quintile. This has been the case for as long as I can recall. The very people who journalists think need help are the group that basically needs no help at all and ought to be paying more tax.
    I did laugh at the idea the Telegraph goes to interview these multi-millionaires who we are apparently supposed to feel sympathy for. It does rather explain their current position if this is what they think the country wants to hear.
    Won't no one think of the mega-rich, in desperate need of tax cuts in order to pay £45 000 per year school fees?

    I recall a US commentator arguing in a debate that 250k per year in New York was close to poverty. Those poor people.
    There was this hilarious bit on BBC QT with Richard Burgon and an audience member too:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/question-time-video-man-top-earners-tax-percent-80000-explained-a9213351.html
    Richard Burgon was correct and handled it well.

    Words not often spoken.
    He didn't handle it brilliantly. The host did. She asked the question that turned it around onto the audience member and properly drew out the lie/mistake.

    The audience guy was a fucking idiot. "I earn £80,000 and I'm not in the top 50%". What a moron.
    I said well, not brilliantly - based on the report.
    I've just had messages from other posters.

    They say these really bad and contrived philosopher puns have bent 'em out.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    ..

    Dura_Ace said:

    Who is Plato?

    Weird woman on here who went full MAGA shitbird then died.
    Before that she was "Poster of the Year".
    Certainy not something that would ever be awarded to Dura Ace if it was still in existence.
    I’m pretty much 99.9% sure he would spit in the eye of anyone who said he should be awarded it.
    If I ever thought my antinomianistic contributions were considered sufficiently worthy by the bourgeois knicker shitters on here to trouble the PotY selection committee I would never post again.
    You suffer from a breakdown in the balance of your control and release mechanisms and from the permeability of your body boundaries
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    Andy_JS said:

    It's not surprising that people in Clacton are bitter, because the politicians haven't made much effort to deliver on their promises.

    Full employment, pay rises, extra NHS spending and control taken back.

    They've had what they were promised - did anyone believe we would immediately and effortlessly get some socioeconomic paradise with all the country's fundamental issues being solved ?

    Now if the government choses to do something they don't want or is incompetent then that's the fault of the government not with having taken back control.
    The government is too busy magnifying its failure by claiming 100 times more people died of Covid than did to sort out problems for the people.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    What MIGHT matter about Sweden, Norway, Japan is that they're less tactile societies; not a lot of cheek kissing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    kle4 said:

    I somehow missed this one - what a card, eh?

    @Guto_Harri reveals on his @LBC podcast @BorisJohnson's private verdict last year on allegations of sexual harassment by MPs:
    "As he put it in the heat of the moment: ‘If we took away the whip from everyone here, who's pinched someone's bottom, we'll lose our majority.’"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1669239719249559552

    It's ok though, because it was heat of the moment.

    Huh? I suspect few on here have ever assaulted anyone in that way. If I tried that, I would expect to be both subsequently eating through a straw and summoned for an appointment with a magistrate.
    I must work on my irony.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,607
    edited June 2023
    I'm only slightly following the cricket because the real 5-day contest starts in Berkshire on Tuesday.

    Could the spinners decide this tomorrow and Tuesday?

    On to far more important sport and Royal Ascot kicks off with three Group 1 races:

    QUEEN ANNE: No Baaeed this year and the question is whether the ground will be too quick for INSPIRAL. She ran badly on quick ground in the Falmouth last July and a storm or two would help. MODERN GAMES just beat CHINDIT in the Lockinge but the latter loves the track and is the each way call at 14s.

    KING'S STAND: As much as the cricket is an England-Australia battle, the same is true here with Aussie sprinters COOLANGATTA and CANNONBALL taking on the fillies HIGHFIELD PRINCESS and DRAMATISED. We know the Aussie sprinters are fast and love fast ground. COOLANGATTA is my choice - if you want one at a price, BRADSELL ran at Haydock as though five furlongs was his trip and he's backable eachway at 25s.

    ST JAMES'S PALACE:The clash of the English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners and there's not much between them on a line through Hi Royal. However, neither is proven on quick ground and I smell an upset - INDESTRUCTIBLE was good in the Craven but didn't enjoy the soft ground on Guineas day. As a juvenile he went well on quick ground but I cannot believe GALERON is 33s. He had fast ground form as a juvenile, was a decent fourth in the English Guineas and an unlucky fifth in Ireland.

    So, my three big price each way fancies as follows:

    CHINDIT (14s)
    BRADSELL (25s)
    GALERON (33s)

    Not saying any of them will win but get a couple in the frame and you'll be well ahead - check what odds and places your bookie is offering.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    If that's the Telegraph's idea of middle class then I must be working class.
    Journalists routintely talk about a middle-class that by any normal definition is usually the upper quintile. This has been the case for as long as I can recall. The very people who journalists think need help are the group that basically needs no help at all and ought to be paying more tax.
    I did laugh at the idea the Telegraph goes to interview these multi-millionaires who we are apparently supposed to feel sympathy for. It does rather explain their current position if this is what they think the country wants to hear.
    Won't no one think of the mega-rich, in desperate need of tax cuts in order to pay £45 000 per year school fees?

    I recall a US commentator arguing in a debate that 250k per year in New York was close to poverty. Those poor people.
    There was this hilarious bit on BBC QT with Richard Burgon and an audience member too:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/question-time-video-man-top-earners-tax-percent-80000-explained-a9213351.html
    Richard Burgon was correct and handled it well.

    Words not often spoken.
    He didn't handle it brilliantly. The host did. She asked the question that turned it around onto the audience member and properly drew out the lie/mistake.

    The audience guy was a fucking idiot. "I earn £80,000 and I'm not in the top 50%". What a moron.
    I said well, not brilliantly - based on the report.
    I've just had messages from other posters.

    They say these really bad and contrived philosopher puns have bent 'em out.
    Feyerabend? must be painful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/18/honours-row-grows-after-claim-charlotte-owen-worked-as-maternity-cover

    Mm, hadn't realised that the new Baroness Owen got the [edit] peerage for being maternity cover.

    That is disturbingly open to a number of interpretations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I somehow missed this one - what a card, eh?

    @Guto_Harri reveals on his @LBC podcast @BorisJohnson's private verdict last year on allegations of sexual harassment by MPs:
    "As he put it in the heat of the moment: ‘If we took away the whip from everyone here, who's pinched someone's bottom, we'll lose our majority.’"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1669239719249559552

    It's ok though, because it was heat of the moment.

    Huh? I suspect few on here have ever assaulted anyone in that way. If I tried that, I would expect to be both subsequently eating through a straw and summoned for an appointment with a magistrate.
    I must work on my irony.
    Why? Has it got rusty?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    1h
    🔵SOMERTON & FROME: two names floated by me as possible Conservative candidates for the by-election - both of them Somerset councillors - are Lucy Trimnell and Faye Purbrick. Please DM if you know of others.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,519
    EPG said:

    malcolmg said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    Utter nonsense. Infections would have spiralled out of control, the NHS would have been completely overwhelmed and tens of thousands more would have died.

    How did Sweden survive in that case
    Far lower population density. Compare Sweden with its neightbours in Norway or even Denmark to see how badly they fared. Then extrapolate that from a population density that is more than 12 times larger.
    Population density is misleading when thinking about how people live. Australia has 3.5 people per square kilometre, but 90% of them live in cities or large towns. Covid doesn't care about how much of your national territory is vast sparsely populated deserts and mountains ranges. Sweden, Norway, Australia and the UK all have broadly similar urbanisation levels.
    IIRC Oliver Johnson, of the @bristoliver Twitter account that was very useful in the pandemic, came up with a mathematical solution to the issue low of low density populations overall but high urbanisation. Most of Australia is so sparsely populated it may as well be regarded as being part of the ocean. Most people there live in small coastal pockets.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/18/honours-row-grows-after-claim-charlotte-owen-worked-as-maternity-cover

    Mm, hadn't realised that the new Baroness Owen got the [edit] peerage for being maternity cover.

    That is disturbingly open to a number of interpretations.
    The report or my wording? In the latter case, it wasn't intentional - but the matter remains odd.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/18/honours-row-grows-after-claim-charlotte-owen-worked-as-maternity-cover

    Mm, hadn't realised that the new Baroness Owen got the [edit] peerage for being maternity cover.

    I was amused by this comment:

    She was in the shadows but was a serious player but never wanted to be in the limelight like so many inferior people.

    Giving the game away...

    Although I wonder how many people thought she was being elevated for reasons linked to maternity?
    Sir Dudley Dudders is the one that gets me.
    In Shakespeare's he'd be a rude mechanical rather than a knight.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,972
    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Who is Plato?

    Plato was an ancient Greek philosopher, a student of Socrates, the teacher of Aristotle, and founder of the Academy, best known as the author of philosophical works of unparalleled influence. What are they teaching people these days?
    I studied Philosophy for two years.
    And you Kant remember who Plato was?
    He never said he passed !!

    That’s a gag from Dr Who, in case anyone thinks it’s a dog as I like CHB
    Pause

    Pause

    DAMMIT!

    OK, which episode? It sounds like Adams/Baker era.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    Dura_Ace said:

    ..

    Dura_Ace said:

    Who is Plato?

    Weird woman on here who went full MAGA shitbird then died.
    Before that she was "Poster of the Year".
    Certainy not something that would ever be awarded to Dura Ace if it was still in existence.
    I’m pretty much 99.9% sure he would spit in the eye of anyone who said he should be awarded it.
    If I ever thought my antinomianistic contributions were considered sufficiently worthy by the bourgeois knicker shitters on here to trouble the PotY selection committee I would never post again.
    Don't worry.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,142
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    Utter nonsense. Infections would have spiralled out of control, the NHS would have been completely overwhelmed and tens of thousands more would have died.

    How did Sweden survive in that case
    One thing different is that the NHS runs at bed occupancy rates (really an issue of estate and staffing rather than beds themselves) far higher than other countries. This has been deliberate government policy to control spending under all governments.

    While this looks like a "lean organisation" to management theorists, it does mean that surge activity can only be achieved by stopping elective work (such as orthopaedics) in order to meet emergency demand.

    That high "bed occupancy rate" is also why we are struggling much more with post covid backlogs than other countries. We simply don't have the physical and workforce infrastructure to catch up with that work as fast as Germany or Sweden.
    Looks like a "lean organisation" to *incompetent* management theorists.

    Using metrics from *1900s* management theory, it is easily demonstrable that a health service requires excess capacity in various areas, to deal with the certain eventuality of emergency demand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/18/honours-row-grows-after-claim-charlotte-owen-worked-as-maternity-cover

    Mm, hadn't realised that the new Baroness Owen got the [edit] peerage for being maternity cover.

    That is disturbingly open to a number of interpretations.
    The report or my wording? In the latter case, it wasn't intentional - but the matter remains odd.
    "Maternity cover".
    For whom, and for what purpose ?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,519
    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,972
    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    I translated above https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4439891/#Comment_4439891
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,845

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Who is Plato?

    Plato was an ancient Greek philosopher, a student of Socrates, the teacher of Aristotle, and founder of the Academy, best known as the author of philosophical works of unparalleled influence. What are they teaching people these days?
    I studied Philosophy for two years.
    And you Kant remember who Plato was?
    Hegel far.

    Apols, that's dreadful.
    It is. You should be Locked up.
    I'll see if I can Russell up a better one.
    I hope so. These are a bit run of the Mill.
    I knew eventually Heidegger few people on to make some puns.
    VG.

    Now do Ludwig W.
    You'd need to have a wit in stein-sized measures to achieve that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/18/honours-row-grows-after-claim-charlotte-owen-worked-as-maternity-cover

    Mm, hadn't realised that the new Baroness Owen got the [edit] peerage for being maternity cover.

    That is disturbingly open to a number of interpretations.
    The report or my wording? In the latter case, it wasn't intentional - but the matter remains odd.
    "Maternity cover".
    For whom, and for what purpose ?
    The BJ interpretation of 'wet nurse' possibly applies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,142

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    I was saying this right from the beginning, and throughout the entire period of the lockdowns. 1,000 people died directly from Covid-19 in the UK, the rest were people who already had conditions. Closing schools was going to do more damage than the virus itself.
    Um - to get that number, you have to discount people who had anything other than a bald one-liner of "Covid-19"

    For example, someone who died from:

    Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
    caused by
    Viral pneumonia
    caused by
    Covid-19

    ... is NOT someone who "died directly from Covid-19", in those criteria. Because it had ARDS and pneumonia on their death certificate.
    And I'm not taking the piss. That's literally what they had to do to get this number. Seriously.

    They've switched to monitoring covid-19 deaths against death certificates, of which more than 80% had covid-19 as the CAUSE of death. That's over 130,000 deaths due to covid-19 (not with "incidental" covid-19, or just happened to push dying people over the edge sort of things) by April 2021*, as the winter wave finally receded.

    I think you've been listening to the Toby Youngs, Ivor Cummins, and the like a bit too much.

    *There are over 220,000 with covid on death certificates as of now, but the proportion dying "of covid" rather than "with covid" did decrease noticeably since the vaccine roll-out, thank God.
    You do not understand how death certificates works.
    Could you explain my misunderstanding?

    That would be a lengthy discussion, but probably it comes down to some mixture of stupidity and a desire to believe in partisan fantasies.
    ???

    Are you confusing Andys here?

    I am not Andy_JS, and he is not me.

    My stance is that to get that ridiculously small number, you have to only take death certificates that were filled out incorrectly and only state the words Covid-19 on them, rather than the sequence that led to the death of which Covid-19 was the underlying cause.
    My apologies. I confused Andys.
    Which ones dad sells raspberries?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,607

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    1h
    🔵SOMERTON & FROME: two names floated by me as possible Conservative candidates for the by-election - both of them Somerset councillors - are Lucy Trimnell and Faye Purbrick. Please DM if you know of others.

    I may be wrong but Lucy Trimnell's division is in the constituency while Faye Purbrick's is in Yeovil.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,264
    The LDs would probably prefer the Somerton&Frome and Mid Beds by-elections not to be held on the same day, given how they like to concentrate all their activists in one place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
    England took it Lyon down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
    England took it Lyon down.
    Boland down too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    EPG said:

    What MIGHT matter about Sweden, Norway, Japan is that they're less tactile societies; not a lot of cheek kissing.

    Also, they don't have much singing in church.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
    England took it Lyon down.
    Boland down too.
    Bowl and catch.

    But now, alas Cummins has got goings.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,264
    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs would probably prefer the Somerton&Frome and Mid Beds by-elections not to be held on the same day, given how they like to concentrate all their activists in one place.

    Why wouldn't the Conservatives feel the same way?
    The Tories don't approach by-elections in the same way as the LDs. They're not as good at organising for them as the LDs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    EPG said:

    malcolmg said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    Utter nonsense. Infections would have spiralled out of control, the NHS would have been completely overwhelmed and tens of thousands more would have died.

    How did Sweden survive in that case
    Far lower population density. Compare Sweden with its neightbours in Norway or even Denmark to see how badly they fared. Then extrapolate that from a population density that is more than 12 times larger.
    Population density is misleading when thinking about how people live. Australia has 3.5 people per square kilometre, but 90% of them live in cities or large towns. Covid doesn't care about how much of your national territory is vast sparsely populated deserts and mountains ranges. Sweden, Norway, Australia and the UK all have broadly similar urbanisation levels.
    I always think of it like this: if the UK and Greenland merged, would that suddenly mean we all had a lot more space?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,917
    ..
    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    malcolmg said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    Utter nonsense. Infections would have spiralled out of control, the NHS would have been completely overwhelmed and tens of thousands more would have died.

    How did Sweden survive in that case
    Far lower population density. Compare Sweden with its neightbours in Norway or even Denmark to see how badly they fared. Then extrapolate that from a population density that is more than 12 times larger.
    Population density is misleading when thinking about how people live. Australia has 3.5 people per square kilometre, but 90% of them live in cities or large towns. Covid doesn't care about how much of your national territory is vast sparsely populated deserts and mountains ranges. Sweden, Norway, Australia and the UK all have broadly similar urbanisation levels.
    IIRC Oliver Johnson, of the @bristoliver Twitter account that was very useful in the pandemic, came up with a mathematical solution to the issue low of low density populations overall but high urbanisation. Most of Australia is so sparsely populated it may as well be regarded as being part of the ocean. Most people there live in small coastal pockets.
    Australia is one of the most urbanized societies on earth. The Melbourne, Sydney and Gold Coast suburbs go on forever. Australia almost entirely lacks towns. You have the five or so conurbations plus a scattering of settlements.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    edited June 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
    England took it Lyon down.
    Boland down too.
    Bowl and catch.

    But now, alas Cummins has got goings.
    I’m claiming that.

    Still a bit disappointing by England. They should have had a lead of more than 7. They need to bat very much better here and unfortunately the conditions are about to sour on them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited June 2023
    So who predicted England would lead after the first innings, following the declaration?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475
    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    malcolmg said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    Utter nonsense. Infections would have spiralled out of control, the NHS would have been completely overwhelmed and tens of thousands more would have died.

    How did Sweden survive in that case
    Far lower population density. Compare Sweden with its neightbours in Norway or even Denmark to see how badly they fared. Then extrapolate that from a population density that is more than 12 times larger.
    Population density is misleading when thinking about how people live. Australia has 3.5 people per square kilometre, but 90% of them live in cities or large towns. Covid doesn't care about how much of your national territory is vast sparsely populated deserts and mountains ranges. Sweden, Norway, Australia and the UK all have broadly similar urbanisation levels.
    I always think of it like this: if the UK and Greenland merged, would that suddenly mean we all had a lot more space?
    Or if Scotland left would you have a lot less space?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,738
    edited June 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,972

    Andy_JS said:

    Who is Plato?

    She was one of the main posters on here until about 2016. Another one was a bloke called RodCrosby.
    I do wonder why some PBers disappear.

    Anyone heard from HurstLlama ?

    His twitter account stopped last December:

    https://twitter.com/HurstLlama
    I believe that Plato passed away. Crosby got a permanent ban iirc.

    I've no info on HurstLlama.
    Plato's obituary is here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4439803#Comment_4439803
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    William is to abdicate.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,025
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
    England took it Lyon down.
    Boland down too.
    Bowl and catch.

    But now, alas Cummins has got goings.
    I’m claiming that.

    Still a bit disappointing by England. They should have had a lead of more than 7. They need to bat very much better here and unfortunately the conditions are about to sour on them.
    They score 500 in the next 5 sessions, put Oz in on Monday night for an aperitif, and everyone boasting about their £25 5th-day ticket will be happy. You read it here first (and probably never again).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452

    William is to abdicate.

    Didn't know he was king.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,479
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I somehow missed this one - what a card, eh?

    @Guto_Harri reveals on his @LBC podcast @BorisJohnson's private verdict last year on allegations of sexual harassment by MPs:
    "As he put it in the heat of the moment: ‘If we took away the whip from everyone here, who's pinched someone's bottom, we'll lose our majority.’"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1669239719249559552

    It's ok though, because it was heat of the moment.

    Huh? I suspect few on here have ever assaulted anyone in that way. If I tried that, I would expect to be both subsequently eating through a straw and summoned for an appointment with a magistrate.
    He probably was thinking ‘all of them have shaken hands with me so they’ve all touched an arse.’

    You could substitute "arse" for any number of four lettered profanities for both male and female genitalia. All would work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
    England took it Lyon down.
    Boland down too.
    Bowl and catch.

    But now, alas Cummins has got goings.
    I’m claiming that.

    Still a bit disappointing by England. They should have had a lead of more than 7. They need to bat very much better here and unfortunately the conditions are about to sour on them.
    They score 500 in the next 5 sessions, put Oz in on Monday night for an aperitif, and everyone boasting about their £25 5th-day ticket will be happy. You read it here first (and probably never again).
    Something else that’s been killed by the internet, the online sale of 5th day tickets. Many Monday mornings spent as a student getting ourselves to the ground at silly O’clock in the morning, to stand in line drinking beer waiting for free or £5 entry to the last day.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,025
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Khawaja finally gone! 1st innings scores likely to be close now.

    Australia about to show the value of a tailender whackabout rather than cutting off early, I suspect.
    Thanks for that prediction!
    England took it Lyon down.
    Boland down too.
    Bowl and catch.

    But now, alas Cummins has got goings.
    I’m claiming that.

    Still a bit disappointing by England. They should have had a lead of more than 7. They need to bat very much better here and unfortunately the conditions are about to sour on them.
    They score 500 in the next 5 sessions, put Oz in on Monday night for an aperitif, and everyone boasting about their £25 5th-day ticket will be happy. You read it here first (and probably never again).
    Something else that’s been killed by the internet, the online sale of 5th day tickets. Many Monday mornings spent as a student getting ourselves to the ground at silly O’clock in the morning, to stand in line drinking beer waiting for free or £5 entry to the last day.
    But there was a sad case a few years ago when someone in Nottingham decided to bring four kids up to Lord's for the 5th day (at humungous expense) only to discover the place had been full since 6am.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    Sandpit said:

    So who predicted England would lead after the first innings, following the declaration?

    I did but I have to confess that I had given up hope of that by close of play yesterday. Bazball continues to enthral.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    Most of those are the names iof weapons systems, not jargon. 'Nile Crocodile' is a nickname.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,519
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.
    I still don’t understand why Egyptians have to buy Nile Crocodiles. Surely they’re native to Egypt, or are they endangered? And WTF is a MANPAD, some form of incontinence shield?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,526
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Who is Plato?

    Plato was an ancient Greek philosopher, a student of Socrates, the teacher of Aristotle, and founder of the Academy, best known as the author of philosophical works of unparalleled influence. What are they teaching people these days?
    I studied Philosophy for two years.
    And you Kant remember who Plato was?
    He never said he passed !!

    That’s a gag from Dr Who, in case anyone thinks it’s a dog as I like CHB
    Pause

    Pause

    DAMMIT!

    OK, which episode? It sounds like Adams/Baker era.
    It's the 3rd Doctor if you want to narrow it down and still have a guess...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,479

    William is to abdicate.

    You've been reading Noatradumus again haven't you? The writing of Nostradamus is not necessarily factual. Reading and quoting Nostradamus is a bit like reading and quoting the Daily Mail.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    Most of those are the names iof weapons systems, not jargon. 'Nile Crocodile' is a nickname.

    And very snappy too.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    William is to abdicate.

    You've been reading Noatradumus again haven't you? The writing of Nostradamus is not necessarily factual. Reading and quoting Nostradamus is a bit like reading and quoting the Daily Mail.
    Did Nostradamus write a lot about house prices too?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,972
    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.
    I still don’t understand why Egyptians have to buy Nile Crocodiles. Surely they’re native to Egypt, or are they endangered? And WTF is a MANPAD, some form of incontinence shield?
    I translated earlier https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4439891/#Comment_4439891
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,519
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.
    I still don’t understand why Egyptians have to buy Nile Crocodiles. Surely they’re native to Egypt, or are they endangered? And WTF is a MANPAD, some form of incontinence shield?
    I translated earlier https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4439891/#Comment_4439891
    Thanks, sorry, missed that
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,479
    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    Now that's a damascene conversion to match any on PB - you spent two years demanding more, longer and harder lockdowns.

    Actually the first lockdown was necessary.

    But the subsequent two could have been avoided if the government had restricted foreign holidays for a year.
    Am I not allowed to change my mind?
    I was never a lockdown enthusiast, and think they generally went on too long, albeit with relatively less restrictive features.

    Worth noting that in the immediate aftermath of a true lockdown, cases often go up as family members are confined together, before dropping.

    There was a lot of absurdity about wearing masks moving about in restaurants and pubs, but not while seated, one way systems, whether a Scotch Egg constitutes a meal etc.

    Keeping schools and universities open would have presented its own problems, not least in transmission but also in the inevitable difficulties with teachers being off sick etc.

    I think furlough etc went on far too long, and was the expensive bit, and prone to sharp practice like business support.

    I don't think it will be needed again as Covid was a fairly unique pandemic in an immune naive population with a virus most infective while pre-symptomatic. We now have endemic covid but also herd immunity.

    Novel viruses will happen, but it be different.

    The evidence we have heard in the COVID Inquiry this week hints at the journey we needed to take was simply guesswork, because post EU Referendum there was a complete dereliction of duty by Government in pandemic planning. Now I know Johnson shills will counter by saying "yeah but, we did no worse than the average", which misses the point that up to 2016 we appeared to be ahead of the game.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899
    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    👍

    For most of the population, though, I think the level of submissive obedience has risen. Yesterday I went on my morning run in a recreation ground (I'm away from home right now) and there was an organised run and they were going the other way around the park. Fine. Ample space for everyone. I made sure of course that I didn't get in the way of the other runners, but several of them kept telling me I was running in the wrong direction, apparently without it occurring to them that somebody might be running without taking part in their event. I never experienced that kind of thing before Covid. Also cyclists seem almost all to wear helmets nowadays. Without wanting to get into the helmet argument (I don't wear one but am not an extremist or bigot on the issue), I used to observe about 30% not wearing helmets, whereas now it's more like 1%. Something's changed and it's scary to think that the "new normal" is now the baseline for whatever shock comes next.
    What comes next?

    Artificial General Intelligence
    Climate change spiralling out of control
    Extinction crisis for millions of species (the insects, the birds)
    DISCLOSURE of Non Human Intelligence: ALIENS

    Dunno which comes first. All should arrive this decade. Disclosure, maybe

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,529
    Am I right that England managed a whopping 22 overs this morning?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.
    I still don’t understand why Egyptians have to buy Nile Crocodiles. Surely they’re native to Egypt, or are they endangered? And WTF is a MANPAD, some form of incontinence shield?
    You're one to talk.
    I didn't know any seals names Doug until you showed up.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,972
    mwadams said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Who is Plato?

    Plato was an ancient Greek philosopher, a student of Socrates, the teacher of Aristotle, and founder of the Academy, best known as the author of philosophical works of unparalleled influence. What are they teaching people these days?
    I studied Philosophy for two years.
    And you Kant remember who Plato was?
    He never said he passed !!

    That’s a gag from Dr Who, in case anyone thinks it’s a dog as I like CHB
    Pause

    Pause

    DAMMIT!

    OK, which episode? It sounds like Adams/Baker era.
    It's the 3rd Doctor if you want to narrow it down and still have a guess...
    I googled. I did not find. Am sad :(

    However I found this instead https://www.eruditorumpress.com/blog/category/eruditorum

    So am now happy :)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899
    viewcode said:

    Who is Plato?

    @PLATO / PHILLIPA (?-2017?)

    PlatoSaid last posted in March 2017 after her previous personas had been banned or malfunctioned. In real life she was a woman in her fifties called Philippa. Some people treat politics as a witty entertainment, but to their credit others give it their full measure and of those some are sadly lost in the giving. She started off with only tangential interest in politics but in her later years became more devoted to the wilder alt-right shores and left by mutual agreement. Nevertheless she was missed and several months later people started to comment on her absence, initially jokingly, then with more concern. Eventually her brother contacted OGH after finding a link and told him that she had died. Her friends and lived ones are not known to us, but even those who disagreed with her on PB will remember her fondly. [I used to do obituaries for PB members but Mike refused to publish it. It's about a year out of date now - somebody died in 2022 and I missed it - but it contains obits of five PBers]
    Why did Mike refuse to publish obits?

    I can see the reason if people were anonymous and might prefer posthumous anonymity, too, but otherwise that’s an honourable thing to do. PB is a community. I genuinely miss long standing commenters when they depart to the Conservativehome in the Sky

    Also I was quite mean in my arguments with Plato and still feel a little guilty. RIP
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,990
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.


    "Everything that can be thought at all can be thought clearly. Everything that can be said can be said clearly."

    Wittgenstein. (Who does not follow his own rule mostly).

    It's a rule of thumb useful guide to whether something is gibberish masquerading as clever.

    Also, I have found that people who really deeply know their stuff can do simplicity and clarity better than those who don't.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,264
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.
    It's possible to write about complex subjects without using jargon.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    Now that's a damascene conversion to match any on PB - you spent two years demanding more, longer and harder lockdowns.

    Actually the first lockdown was necessary.

    But the subsequent two could have been avoided if the government had restricted foreign holidays for a year.
    Am I not allowed to change my mind?
    I was never a lockdown enthusiast, and think they generally went on too long, albeit with relatively less restrictive features.

    Worth noting that in the immediate aftermath of a true lockdown, cases often go up as family members are confined together, before dropping.

    There was a lot of absurdity about wearing masks moving about in restaurants and pubs, but not while seated, one way systems, whether a Scotch Egg constitutes a meal etc.

    Keeping schools and universities open would have presented its own problems, not least in transmission but also in the inevitable difficulties with teachers being off sick etc.

    I think furlough etc went on far too long, and was the expensive bit, and prone to sharp practice like business support.

    I don't think it will be needed again as Covid was a fairly unique pandemic in an immune naive population with a virus most infective while pre-symptomatic. We now have endemic covid but also herd immunity.

    Novel viruses will happen, but it be different.

    The evidence we have heard in the COVID Inquiry this week hints at the journey we needed to take was simply guesswork, because post EU Referendum there was a complete dereliction of duty by Government in pandemic planning. Now I know Johnson shills will counter by saying "yeah but, we did no worse than the average", which misses the point that up to 2016 we appeared to be ahead of the game.
    So what are these pandemic preparation breakthroughs which somehow could have happened in 2017-19 but were otherwise missed ?

    I thought the complaint was that the pandemic plan was good but inappropriate as it was focussed on influenza and having an inappropriate plan could have been worse than having no plan.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    Leon said:

    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    👍

    For most of the population, though, I think the level of submissive obedience has risen. Yesterday I went on my morning run in a recreation ground (I'm away from home right now) and there was an organised run and they were going the other way around the park. Fine. Ample space for everyone. I made sure of course that I didn't get in the way of the other runners, but several of them kept telling me I was running in the wrong direction, apparently without it occurring to them that somebody might be running without taking part in their event. I never experienced that kind of thing before Covid. Also cyclists seem almost all to wear helmets nowadays. Without wanting to get into the helmet argument (I don't wear one but am not an extremist or bigot on the issue), I used to observe about 30% not wearing helmets, whereas now it's more like 1%. Something's changed and it's scary to think that the "new normal" is now the baseline for whatever shock comes next.
    What comes next?

    Artificial General Intelligence
    Climate change spiralling out of control
    Extinction crisis for millions of species (the insects, the birds)
    DISCLOSURE of Non Human Intelligence: ALIENS

    Dunno which comes first. All should arrive this decade. Disclosure, maybe

    But how will they affect house prices ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184

    Am I right that England managed a whopping 22 overs this morning?

    Hurrying along the game does not apply to over rates.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899

    Leon said:

    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    👍

    For most of the population, though, I think the level of submissive obedience has risen. Yesterday I went on my morning run in a recreation ground (I'm away from home right now) and there was an organised run and they were going the other way around the park. Fine. Ample space for everyone. I made sure of course that I didn't get in the way of the other runners, but several of them kept telling me I was running in the wrong direction, apparently without it occurring to them that somebody might be running without taking part in their event. I never experienced that kind of thing before Covid. Also cyclists seem almost all to wear helmets nowadays. Without wanting to get into the helmet argument (I don't wear one but am not an extremist or bigot on the issue), I used to observe about 30% not wearing helmets, whereas now it's more like 1%. Something's changed and it's scary to think that the "new normal" is now the baseline for whatever shock comes next.
    What comes next?

    Artificial General Intelligence
    Climate change spiralling out of control
    Extinction crisis for millions of species (the insects, the birds)
    DISCLOSURE of Non Human Intelligence: ALIENS

    Dunno which comes first. All should arrive this decade. Disclosure, maybe

    But how will they affect house prices ?
    Probably neutral. At the end of all this there will only be about 12 people left on earth, but as 99.8% of the planet will be uninhabitable, there will only be about 5 houses left standing

    So a decent 3 bed semi should cost roughly the same
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,972
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Who is Plato?

    @PLATO / PHILLIPA (?-2017?)

    PlatoSaid last posted in March 2017 after her previous personas had been banned or malfunctioned. In real life she was a woman in her fifties called Philippa. Some people treat politics as a witty entertainment, but to their credit others give it their full measure and of those some are sadly lost in the giving. She started off with only tangential interest in politics but in her later years became more devoted to the wilder alt-right shores and left by mutual agreement. Nevertheless she was missed and several months later people started to comment on her absence, initially jokingly, then with more concern. Eventually her brother contacted OGH after finding a link and told him that she had died. Her friends and lived ones are not known to us, but even those who disagreed with her on PB will remember her fondly. [I used to do obituaries for PB members but Mike refused to publish it. It's about a year out of date now - somebody died in 2022 and I missed it - but it contains obits of five PBers]
    Why did Mike refuse to publish obits?

    I can see the reason if people were anonymous and might prefer posthumous anonymity, too, but otherwise that’s an honourable thing to do. PB is a community. I genuinely miss long standing commenters when they depart to the Conservativehome in the Sky

    Also I was quite mean in my arguments with Plato and still feel a little guilty. RIP
    "Refuse" is too strong a word: "declined to answer" is more accurate. My headcanon reason is that one of the obituaries was for @SBS, who was a personal friend of @OGH and it may have been too painful. Or Mike may simply have disliked the article: his gaff, his decisions, and he's not obliged to publish anything. I handed round individual copies to some people who were interested backstage.

    The five people obituarised were @Plato, @MarkSenior, @Nichomar, @Calum and @SBS
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65941549

    Michael Gove says sorry over Tory lockdown party video

    What an absolute bunch of twats.

    Has anyone ever denied that Michael Gove is a complete twat?

    More to the point, did anyone at elite level in ANY part of British society BELIEVE all the government crap, served up for the proles and middle groups by white-coated scientists, advising people who WEREN'T chronically ill or in small high-risk groups that they should stay 2 metres away from everyone, and only leave the house to go shopping, and walk around wearing masks, in order to reduce the ever so high risk of spreading the killer lergy?
    Seems quite obvious now that lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time, we should have protected the vulnerable and elderly with proper care and attention as they rightfully deserve and then let the rest of society get on with our lives. I am so angry that I put my life on hold for two years when the Government didn't care.
    👍

    For most of the population, though, I think the level of submissive obedience has risen. Yesterday I went on my morning run in a recreation ground (I'm away from home right now) and there was an organised run and they were going the other way around the park. Fine. Ample space for everyone. I made sure of course that I didn't get in the way of the other runners, but several of them kept telling me I was running in the wrong direction, apparently without it occurring to them that somebody might be running without taking part in their event. I never experienced that kind of thing before Covid. Also cyclists seem almost all to wear helmets nowadays. Without wanting to get into the helmet argument (I don't wear one but am not an extremist or bigot on the issue), I used to observe about 30% not wearing helmets, whereas now it's more like 1%. Something's changed and it's scary to think that the "new normal" is now the baseline for whatever shock comes next.
    What comes next?

    Artificial General Intelligence
    Climate change spiralling out of control
    Extinction crisis for millions of species (the insects, the birds)
    DISCLOSURE of Non Human Intelligence: ALIENS

    Dunno which comes first. All should arrive this decade. Disclosure, maybe

    But how will they affect house prices ?
    Probably neutral. At the end of all this there will only be about 12 people left on earth, but as 99.8% of the planet will be uninhabitable, there will only be about 5 houses left standing

    So a decent 3 bed semi should cost roughly the same
    But try finding a plumber.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184

    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.

    A 'drive theory' field.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899
    The Aliens story is approaching a climax, btw


    I did a deep dive sitting on my historic Kentucky balcony last night, in the charming riverside town of Maysville KY (I do wish people would stop dissing small American towns, Maysville is rather nice)

    I reckon in the next two or three years we will learn the truth of this bizarre story as it culminates

    The Americans have either gone mad, or they are conducting deep dark psy ops, or they genuinely believe they are encountering Non Human Intelligence

    The seniority and the number of people now saying Something is Up can not be airily waved away
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    Are there any stats on the success rate of declaring to get the other side batting for a few overs at the end of a day ?

    I wonder how often a wicket falls in those overs compared to those overs at other periods of a day.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503

    William is to abdicate.

    You've been reading Noatradumus again haven't you? The writing of Nostradamus is not necessarily factual. Reading and quoting Nostradamus is a bit like reading and quoting the Daily Mail.
    But without the foresight?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503

    Am I right that England managed a whopping 22 overs this morning?

    It is hard to believe that the proper cricket is only just starting, given the amount of pointless cricket commentary we have endured in PB already this year.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Isn’t it time to bring back the death penalty. Hang child rapists and Boris Johnsons
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Who is Plato?

    @PLATO / PHILLIPA (?-2017?)

    PlatoSaid last posted in March 2017 after her previous personas had been banned or malfunctioned. In real life she was a woman in her fifties called Philippa. Some people treat politics as a witty entertainment, but to their credit others give it their full measure and of those some are sadly lost in the giving. She started off with only tangential interest in politics but in her later years became more devoted to the wilder alt-right shores and left by mutual agreement. Nevertheless she was missed and several months later people started to comment on her absence, initially jokingly, then with more concern. Eventually her brother contacted OGH after finding a link and told him that she had died. Her friends and lived ones are not known to us, but even those who disagreed with her on PB will remember her fondly. [I used to do obituaries for PB members but Mike refused to publish it. It's about a year out of date now - somebody died in 2022 and I missed it - but it contains obits of five PBers]
    Why did Mike refuse to publish obits?

    I can see the reason if people were anonymous and might prefer posthumous anonymity, too, but otherwise that’s an honourable thing to do. PB is a community. I genuinely miss long standing commenters when they depart to the Conservativehome in the Sky

    Also I was quite mean in my arguments with Plato and still feel a little guilty. RIP
    But the same would go for any PB’er who happened to drop dead, as, through simple mathematics, is surely happening with some regularity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    The Aliens story is approaching a climax, btw


    I did a deep dive sitting on my historic Kentucky balcony last night, in the charming riverside town of Maysville KY (I do wish people would stop dissing small American towns, Maysville is rather nice)

    I reckon in the next two or three years we will learn the truth of this bizarre story as it culminates

    The Americans have either gone mad, or they are conducting deep dark psy ops, or they genuinely believe they are encountering Non Human Intelligence

    The seniority and the number of people now saying Something is Up can not be airily waved away

    Are you sure? If they are all Americans living in rural Kentucky, they probably can.

    After all, any way-more-intelligent-than-us aliens who had done prior research wouldn’t be wasting time abducting people only from Kentucky, South Dakota and West Virginia in the first place.

    Unless they were on a mission to do our planet a favour. In which case, you’ll be next…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899
    I recommend a full viewing of the UFO whistleblower interview

    It is extraordinary. For a start his CV checks out. He really is - or was until recently - a senior US intel officer. He was working on UFOs. He does have specialised scientific training

    And his claims are toys-in-the-attic insane. The Vatican knows about UFOs. Mussolini had one (it crashed in Italy). They may come from other dimensions. They have killed people. We are not alone!

    https://twitter.com/ackmeni/status/1668148960668819456?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    As you watch it your brain toggles between several different interpretations. Is he simply mad? No, he doesn’t seem mad. Is he being paid to do this, or ordered to, as part of some psy ops against China or whatever? Maybe - but then why make such outrageous claims that sound SO bonkers. The pope, really?

    Is it a joke? If it is - what’s the pay off? He is risking his reputation and career - his life, really - by saying this stuff. Does he actually believe everything he says? Perhaps. Perhaps it is true. But then you come back to the WTF stuff about the Vatican. It can’t be true

    Maybe he has been brilliantly manipulated, perhaps even drugged

    I confess I have no idea, no answer really covers all the bases. My point is: this level of insanity cannot be sustained and we are surely reaching the moment when the truth will out, whatever that might be
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.

    The field for the Khawaja dismissal



    https://twitter.com/willis_macp/status/1670394545819856898/photo/1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    edited June 2023

    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.

    The field for the Khawaja dismissal



    https://twitter.com/willis_macp/status/1670394545819856898/photo/1
    If we switched captains we'd have lost by now.
    Cummins has now put men on the boundary.
    To allow us to still score at 4/5 an over. But without any jeopardy.

    Edit.
    Now he's brought on the main threat early. Lyon.
    With one man catching...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    A

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
    Given that the Ukrainians have committed only a fraction of their forces so far, I think it's obvious that this phase is about assessing how the Russians defend against counterattack, working out the extent to which what they do can be countered, and adjusting plans accordingly.
    The Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war have been knocking down the Russian attack helicopters in numbers. It was notable that China cancelled an order, apparently due to vulnerability to shoulder fired missiles.
    Every helicopter ever built is vulnerable to MANPAD.

    The Chinese Navy deal for Ka-52K is still on but the PLAAF have cooled their interest due to progress on their Z-10 project.

    They Egyptians like their Nile Crocodiles; so much that the US had to sell them AH-64 (over the objections of Israel) to stop them buying more. Ka-52 has been an export failure though, especially compared to the (deeply flawed) Hind that proceeded it.
    I understand literally none of this. Is it something to do with cryptocurrency?
    See this article:

    "Why do people use jargon to appear knowledgeable"

    https://www.hamessharley.com.au/knowledge/jargon

    Also see this article about how a profession uses jargon " to make themselves sound smarter than you (you being the client ...). It does nothing to inform or enlighten ... and mostly serves to numb them into obedience or self doubt"

    https://slate.com/culture/2011/02/architecture-speak-an-essay-on-the-ridiculous-way-architects-talk.html

    Also see lawyers, politicians, financiers, etc. etc. etc.
    It’s the same as the ever-changing academic woke-speak, simply designed to create in-groups and out-groups.

    Many industries are the same, with inpenetrable gobbledegook. I once tried to write a header on the impact of the end of EU membership on aviation, and quickly got caught up in acronym soup that was undecipherable to the lay person.
    Yep: only the other day I was working with a bunch of nuclear engineers on a new powerplant. And the bastards kept using words that no one would understand: things about "cooling rods" and "safety systems". I knew immediately they were just trying to pull the wool over my eyes by using jargon, and have replaced them with some blokes I met in the pub.


    "Everything that can be thought at all can be thought clearly. Everything that can be said can be said clearly."

    Wittgenstein. (Who does not follow his own rule mostly).

    It's a rule of thumb useful guide to whether something is gibberish masquerading as clever.

    Also, I have found that people who really deeply know their stuff can do simplicity and clarity better than those who don't.

    There's a bit in a Douglas Adams book (Long Dark Teatime of the Soul?) where a university lecturer states that to truly understand something, you need to teach it to someone who doesn't know it. The teaching forces you to think more about the subject.

    I've found that's generally true in my own life.
    I've sometimes found that by telling someone of a problem the answer becomes apparent as the process forces you to go through things in a full and logical order.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,843
    edited June 2023
    Re; the ufo whistleblower, he's not mad.

    He's also in the middle of a very long bureaucratic process with the US inspectorate of intelligence, as I've mentioned more than a few times, and his current lawyer was also inspector-general before that. It might not be the complete story, it may be partially right, or it may be completely wrong, but I would keep an eye on this story, contrary to the beffudlement and/or mockery surrounding it from the major news organisations.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    dixiedean said:

    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.

    The field for the Khawaja dismissal



    https://twitter.com/willis_macp/status/1670394545819856898/photo/1
    If we switched captains we'd have lost by now.
    Cummins has now put men on the boundary.
    To allow us to still score at 4/5 an over. But without any jeopardy.

    Edit.
    Now he's brought on the main threat early. Lyon.
    With one man catching...
    So long as the England batsman are satisfied with 4-5 an over.

    If they attempt 7-9 an over then that field becomes deadly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    As an aside, if the UFO whistleblower is even 1% right then the good news is it would appear to refute the Dark Forest.

    For those unaware, the Dark Forest is a grim answer for the Fermi Paradox (where are all the aliens?). In this version of the galaxy, aliens aren't seen because fear and self-preservations makes them immediately wipe out any other intelligent life they encounter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503
    I see that there are now suggestions that there’s a super-injunction out regarding the lying clown’s honours list?

    So, please, no questions about any young seemingly unqualified people who are about to make it into the House of Lords.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,843
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    I recommend a full viewing of the UFO whistleblower interview

    It is extraordinary. For a start his CV checks out. He really is - or was until recently - a senior US intel officer. He was working on UFOs. He does have specialised scientific training

    And his claims are toys-in-the-attic insane. The Vatican knows about UFOs. Mussolini had one (it crashed in Italy). They may come from other dimensions. They have killed people. We are not alone!

    https://twitter.com/ackmeni/status/1668148960668819456?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    As you watch it your brain toggles between several different interpretations. Is he simply mad? No, he doesn’t seem mad. Is he being paid to do this, or ordered to, as part of some psy ops against China or whatever? Maybe - but then why make such outrageous claims that sound SO bonkers. The pope, really?

    Is it a joke? If it is - what’s the pay off? He is risking his reputation and career - his life, really - by saying this stuff. Does he actually believe everything he says? Perhaps. Perhaps it is true. But then you come back to the WTF stuff about the Vatican. It can’t be true

    Maybe he has been brilliantly manipulated, perhaps even drugged

    I confess I have no idea, no answer really covers all the bases. My point is: this level of insanity cannot be sustained and we are surely reaching the moment when the truth will out, whatever that might be

    There's also a "positive spin" version of this story, again reaching elements that most people would consider, just axiomatically, mad, and so immediately dismiss. Stephen Greer is another, and contrary to Grusch, he may be partial huckster or partial groundbreaker, completely one, or none of these.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDY7t6HihCw
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503
    Leon said:

    I recommend a full viewing of the UFO whistleblower interview

    It is extraordinary. For a start his CV checks out. He really is - or was until recently - a senior US intel officer. He was working on UFOs. He does have specialised scientific training

    And his claims are toys-in-the-attic insane. The Vatican knows about UFOs. Mussolini had one (it crashed in Italy). They may come from other dimensions. They have killed people. We are not alone!

    https://twitter.com/ackmeni/status/1668148960668819456?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    As you watch it your brain toggles between several different interpretations. Is he simply mad? No, he doesn’t seem mad. Is he being paid to do this, or ordered to, as part of some psy ops against China or whatever? Maybe - but then why make such outrageous claims that sound SO bonkers. The pope, really?

    Is it a joke? If it is - what’s the pay off? He is risking his reputation and career - his life, really - by saying this stuff. Does he actually believe everything he says? Perhaps. Perhaps it is true. But then you come back to the WTF stuff about the Vatican. It can’t be true

    Maybe he has been brilliantly manipulated, perhaps even drugged

    I confess I have no idea, no answer really covers all the bases. My point is: this level of insanity cannot be sustained and we are surely reaching the moment when the truth will out, whatever that might be

    Confessing that you have no idea doesn’t really fall within the commonly understood definition of a confession, tbh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    edited June 2023
    viewcode said:

    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.

    The field for the Khawaja dismissal



    https://twitter.com/willis_macp/status/1670394545819856898/photo/1
    • What you thought I took from that picture: the placement of each individual in that field backs up the point you made earlier, with particular attention to person X and position Y
    • What I actually took from that picture: I think that's a cricket match.
    This will make it totally clear

    Easy, see? No more need be said.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266

    dixiedean said:

    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.

    The field for the Khawaja dismissal



    https://twitter.com/willis_macp/status/1670394545819856898/photo/1
    If we switched captains we'd have lost by now.
    Cummins has now put men on the boundary.
    To allow us to still score at 4/5 an over. But without any jeopardy.

    Edit.
    Now he's brought on the main threat early. Lyon.
    With one man catching...
    So long as the England batsman are satisfied with 4-5 an over.

    If they attempt 7-9 an over then that field becomes deadly.
    We've psychologically battered them this test.
    We're actually ahead despite a much weaker side.
    That declaration. That's plenty for a first innings lead was a bloody masterstroke.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    IanB2 said:

    I see that there are now suggestions that there’s a super-injunction out regarding the lying clown’s honours list?

    So, please, no questions about any young seemingly unqualified people who are about to make it into the House of Lords.

    An attractive young blonde employed on maternity cover gets a seat in the House of Lords?
    What could that super injunction possibly be about?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,899

    Leon said:

    I recommend a full viewing of the UFO whistleblower interview

    It is extraordinary. For a start his CV checks out. He really is - or was until recently - a senior US intel officer. He was working on UFOs. He does have specialised scientific training

    And his claims are toys-in-the-attic insane. The Vatican knows about UFOs. Mussolini had one (it crashed in Italy). They may come from other dimensions. They have killed people. We are not alone!

    https://twitter.com/ackmeni/status/1668148960668819456?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    As you watch it your brain toggles between several different interpretations. Is he simply mad? No, he doesn’t seem mad. Is he being paid to do this, or ordered to, as part of some psy ops against China or whatever? Maybe - but then why make such outrageous claims that sound SO bonkers. The pope, really?

    Is it a joke? If it is - what’s the pay off? He is risking his reputation and career - his life, really - by saying this stuff. Does he actually believe everything he says? Perhaps. Perhaps it is true. But then you come back to the WTF stuff about the Vatican. It can’t be true

    Maybe he has been brilliantly manipulated, perhaps even drugged

    I confess I have no idea, no answer really covers all the bases. My point is: this level of insanity cannot be sustained and we are surely reaching the moment when the truth will out, whatever that might be

    A space YouTuber I've started watching again recently (angry astronaut) has started doing stuff on UFOs as well as his usual fare of space industry stuff. The reason? It gets a heck of a lot more hits and engagement. People like UFO stuff.

    And that might be your answer: this gentleman may be risking his career, but his reputation amongst the UFOlogists will be massive, and will keep him in lucre for a long time.

    Look at AA's video views: https://www.youtube.com/@TheAngryAstronaut/videos

    "If UFOs are alien, where are they from? What do they want?" - 125k views.
    "So you want to be a Martian? How to be a SpaceX colonist!" - 11k views
    "Government Whistleblower: Alien Craft recovered! Pentagon, NASA reveal more spherical UFOs!" - 321k views
    "Will China's new Starship clone bury NASA and Artemis?" - 17k views

    Basically, UFO ones get 10 time or more views.
    But Barack Obama doesn’t need “more attention” and “extra hits on his YouTube vids” and he has also said “there is stuff up there we do not understand”

    Same goes for multiple admirals, spies, generals, senators, ex CIA chiefs - all saying the same thing

    So your explanation doesn’t work, overall. It may explain a modest percentage of the phenomenon, no more

    And that’s the crazy thing. How do you explain ALL of it?
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,432
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Who is Plato?

    Plato was an ancient Greek philosopher, a student of Socrates, the teacher of Aristotle, and founder of the Academy, best known as the author of philosophical works of unparalleled influence. What are they teaching people these days?
    I studied Philosophy for two years.
    And you Kant remember who Plato was?
    He never said he passed !!

    That’s a gag from Dr Who, in case anyone thinks it’s a dog as I like CHB
    Pause

    Pause

    DAMMIT!

    OK, which episode? It sounds like Adams/Baker era.
    Terror of the Autons part 1, Jo Grant says it to the Doctor. It was an A level in General science.

    Obviously I had to change gender for CHB 👍
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,432

    Isn’t it time to bring back the death penalty. Hang child rapists and Boris Johnsons

    I’m sure We don’t want to know how hung Boris’s Johnson is.
  • x

    I've just seen the field for the Khawaja wicket.

    It will become iconic.

    The field for the Khawaja dismissal



    https://twitter.com/willis_macp/status/1670394545819856898/photo/1
    I hope he sets the same field for Khawaja’s next ball
This discussion has been closed.