Another tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    It's pretty much all change in politics in the UK - certainly for the Tories the old guard are out, and it's long been the case that Labour have ejected the beard folk. The Greens move on a little too, and no doubt the LDs will follow.

    Who though are the future stars? I'll suggest two - for the Tories it's Alex Chalk, and for Labour, Matthew Pennycook.

    I don't view these as next leader material in either case, but one day. I'm not surprised that I can't name a possible Green star, but I am a little surprised that I can't find a good LD prospect.

    With so few seats, it’s a thin pool, made thinner by the LibDem’s obsession with selection by identity.

    Daisy Cooper is almost certainly next leader.
    Yes Daisy’s next in line. I think she’ll do well, better than Swinson, Cable or Farron (I think Davey’s quietly doing a very good job).

    But for dearth of star quality look at the greens. Even the clown show that is Refuk manages to turn out people with bucket loads more charisma than the current green crop, post Lucas.
    Sian Berry was fun at college. She was the Entertainments Officer at Trinity JCR. I met my wife at a college disco she organised.
    Is the issue (and your post confirms my suspicions) the constitution of the party which prevents charismatic individuals from taking the limelight?

    Siam Berry certainly speaks reasonably well and is telegenic. But she’s not allowed to be the “leader” because that would be somehow be inappropriate for the egalitarian greens.
    She was co-leader of the Greens for 3 or 4 years. I’m not sure what you’re on about
    “Co”. Precisely.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    One will always find what one seeks.

    I have just spent a week in New England, and have found it - in the main - to be prosperous and thriving.

    Yes there is homelessness. But there's not obviously loads more than I've seen in the past. Indeed, Boston certainly seems to have less than New York or Los Angeles or San Francisco.

    And the bars and restaurants seem to have been thriving. Even now, on Sunday night, our attempts to book dinner in Boston are stymied by nowhere having availability before 930pm.

    Maybe I'm in a relative well off area.

    But I suspect the simple issue is that I am not preprogrammed to look for decline.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Gardenwalker said:

    Niall Ferguson has an interesting thread that talks to weaknesses in the Western bloc.

    https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/1670389175311568896?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    Basically, how much can the US rely on its allies, and how much can its allies rely on the U.S.?

    This, by the way, is the premise behind my concept of a tight Anglo-Canadian alliance, which I’ve mentioned before on here. Another Trump victory may render the USA an unreliable guarantor of European security.

    I think there is no doubt that Ukraine is keen to beat Russia before the next Presidential election, while Putin is desperate to hang on until Trump is restored to power.
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    rcs1000 said:

    One will always find what one seeks.

    I have just spent a week in New England, and have found it - in the main - to be prosperous and thriving.

    Yes there is homelessness. But there's not obviously loads more than I've seen in the past. Indeed, Boston certainly seems to have less than New York or Los Angeles or San Francisco.

    And the bars and restaurants seem to have been thriving. Even now, on Sunday night, our attempts to book dinner in Boston are stymied by nowhere having availability before 930pm.

    Maybe I'm in a relative well off area.

    But I suspect the simple issue is that I am not preprogrammed to look for decline.

    Isn’t it that America is a microcosm of the world, as in a smaller way is Britain, and therefore contains (almost - excluding mediaeval town centres) everything you would expect to come across in the world, rich and poor?
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,433
    rcs1000 said:

    One will always find what one seeks.

    I have just spent a week in New England, and have found it - in the main - to be prosperous and thriving.

    Yes there is homelessness. But there's not obviously loads more than I've seen in the past. Indeed, Boston certainly seems to have less than New York or Los Angeles or San Francisco.

    And the bars and restaurants seem to have been thriving. Even now, on Sunday night, our attempts to book dinner in Boston are stymied by nowhere having availability before 930pm.

    Maybe I'm in a relative well off area.

    But I suspect the simple issue is that I am not preprogrammed to look for decline.

    Saw your note upthread. Salem *is* touristy.

    Marblehead is nice for a lunch on the water, and Concord MA is fantastic.
  • DougSeal
    DougSeal Posts: 12,785
    rcs1000 said:

    One will always find what one seeks.

    I have just spent a week in New England, and have found it - in the main - to be prosperous and thriving.

    Yes there is homelessness. But there's not obviously loads more than I've seen in the past. Indeed, Boston certainly seems to have less than New York or Los Angeles or San Francisco.

    And the bars and restaurants seem to have been thriving. Even now, on Sunday night, our attempts to book dinner in Boston are stymied by nowhere having availability before 930pm.

    Maybe I'm in a relative well off area.

    But I suspect the simple issue is that I am not preprogrammed to look for decline.

    I’m off to Boston next month. I shall take photos of such prosperity I find there and post them on here with CAPS
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Top tip: Clear the silt out of the drainage channel in front of your garage BEFORE it starts pissing it down.

    We didn't.

    And by the way, what sort of numpty builder slopes the garage floor from front to back so that any water that finds its way in just keeps going?
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,433
    Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull.
  • DougSeal
    DougSeal Posts: 12,785
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    It's pretty much all change in politics in the UK - certainly for the Tories the old guard are out, and it's long been the case that Labour have ejected the beard folk. The Greens move on a little too, and no doubt the LDs will follow.

    Who though are the future stars? I'll suggest two - for the Tories it's Alex Chalk, and for Labour, Matthew Pennycook.

    I don't view these as next leader material in either case, but one day. I'm not surprised that I can't name a possible Green star, but I am a little surprised that I can't find a good LD prospect.

    With so few seats, it’s a thin pool, made thinner by the LibDem’s obsession with selection by identity.

    Daisy Cooper is almost certainly next leader.
    Yes Daisy’s next in line. I think she’ll do well, better than Swinson, Cable or Farron (I think Davey’s quietly doing a very good job).

    But for dearth of star quality look at the greens. Even the clown show that is Refuk manages to turn out people with bucket loads more charisma than the current green crop, post Lucas.
    Sian Berry was fun at college. She was the Entertainments Officer at Trinity JCR. I met my wife at a college disco she organised.
    Is the issue (and your post confirms my suspicions) the constitution of the party which prevents charismatic individuals from taking the limelight?

    Siam Berry certainly speaks reasonably well and is telegenic. But she’s not allowed to be the “leader” because that would be somehow be inappropriate for the egalitarian greens.
    She was co-leader of the Greens for 3 or 4 years. I’m not sure what you’re on about
    “Co”. Precisely.
    Well, she’s running to replace the Green’s only MP, Caroline Lucas, which should give her a very high profile if successful
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    rcs1000 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Niall Ferguson has an interesting thread that talks to weaknesses in the Western bloc.

    https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/1670389175311568896?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    Basically, how much can the US rely on its allies, and how much can its allies rely on the U.S.?

    This, by the way, is the premise behind my concept of a tight Anglo-Canadian alliance, which I’ve mentioned before on here. Another Trump victory may render the USA an unreliable guarantor of European security.

    I think there is no doubt that Ukraine is keen to beat Russia before the next Presidential election, while Putin is desperate to hang on until Trump is restored to power.
    Which he won’t be. Trump will lose. I would love to see Russia hanging on heroically awaiting their salvation from the orange beelzebub, only to find themselves with 4 more years of Biden (or a successor) and a shit ton of new weaponry for Ukraine. By which point they’ll be so ground down they’ll no longer be a threat to anyone.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Gardenwalker said:

    Niall Ferguson has an interesting thread that talks to weaknesses in the Western bloc.

    https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/1670389175311568896?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    That link links to this link and the headline starts with "In the global struggle between the Eurasian “Heartland” and the US-led "Rimland," there's trouble ahead."

    Well. I wonder who did a PB article on Geopolitics? Hmm, it's a puzzle and no mistake..

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/

  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    It's pretty much all change in politics in the UK - certainly for the Tories the old guard are out, and it's long been the case that Labour have ejected the beard folk. The Greens move on a little too, and no doubt the LDs will follow.

    Who though are the future stars? I'll suggest two - for the Tories it's Alex Chalk, and for Labour, Matthew Pennycook.

    I don't view these as next leader material in either case, but one day. I'm not surprised that I can't name a possible Green star, but I am a little surprised that I can't find a good LD prospect.

    With so few seats, it’s a thin pool, made thinner by the LibDem’s obsession with selection by identity.

    Daisy Cooper is almost certainly next leader.
    Yes Daisy’s next in line. I think she’ll do well, better than Swinson, Cable or Farron (I think Davey’s quietly doing a very good job).

    But for dearth of star quality look at the greens. Even the clown show that is Refuk manages to turn out people with bucket loads more charisma than the current green crop, post Lucas.
    Sian Berry was fun at college. She was the Entertainments Officer at Trinity JCR. I met my wife at a college disco she organised.
    Is the issue (and your post confirms my suspicions) the constitution of the party which prevents charismatic individuals from taking the limelight?

    Siam Berry certainly speaks reasonably well and is telegenic. But she’s not allowed to be the “leader” because that would be somehow be inappropriate for the egalitarian greens.
    She was co-leader of the Greens for 3 or 4 years. I’m not sure what you’re on about
    “Co”. Precisely.
    Well, she’s running to replace the Green’s only MP, Caroline Lucas, which should give her a very high profile if successful
    I expect (sadly) Labour might snaffle that one. I hope I’m wrong.
  • boulay
    boulay Posts: 6,612
    TimS said:

    boulay said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    It's pretty much all change in politics in the UK - certainly for the Tories the old guard are out, and it's long been the case that Labour have ejected the beard folk. The Greens move on a little too, and no doubt the LDs will follow.

    Who though are the future stars? I'll suggest two - for the Tories it's Alex Chalk, and for Labour, Matthew Pennycook.

    I don't view these as next leader material in either case, but one day. I'm not surprised that I can't name a possible Green star, but I am a little surprised that I can't find a good LD prospect.

    With so few seats, it’s a thin pool, made thinner by the LibDem’s obsession with selection by identity.

    Daisy Cooper is almost certainly next leader.
    Yes Daisy’s next in line. I think she’ll do well, better than Swinson, Cable or Farron (I think Davey’s quietly doing a very good job).

    But for dearth of star quality look at the greens. Even the clown show that is Refuk manages to turn out people with bucket loads more charisma than the current green crop, post Lucas.
    Sian Berry was fun at college. She was the Entertainments Officer at Trinity JCR. I met my wife at a college disco she organised.
    Is the issue (and your post confirms my suspicions) the constitution of the party which prevents charismatic individuals from taking the limelight?

    Siam Berry certainly speaks reasonably well and is telegenic. But she’s not allowed to be the “leader” because that would be somehow be inappropriate for the egalitarian greens.
    I’m guessing that Siam Berry was only co-leader because the leadership vote was a Thai?
    She was forced to share the green leadership with her ideologically conjoined twin?
    As the old wisdom of the east says, “to be top green, curry favour, and as spring rolls in your prize will come, if it doesn’t then just say Phuket and move on.”
  • CatMan
    CatMan Posts: 3,327
    This thread has been abducted by a UFO
  • Landsend
    Landsend Posts: 38
    rcs1000 said:

    One will always find what one seeks.

    I have just spent a week in New England, and have found it - in the main - to be prosperous and thriving.

    Yes there is homelessness. But there's not obviously loads more than I've seen in the past. Indeed, Boston certainly seems to have less than New York or Los Angeles or San Francisco.

    And the bars and restaurants seem to have been thriving. Even now, on Sunday night, our attempts to book dinner in Boston are stymied by nowhere having availability before 930pm.

    Maybe I'm in a relative well off area.

    But I suspect the simple issue is that I am not preprogrammed to look for decline.

    Well i think many of the areas around the major cities in the blue states are still prosperous for now. But Leon is likely travelling more widely than you and seeing the run down areas in the red states.
  • algarkirk
    algarkirk Posts: 14,975
    A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.

    But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
  • turbotubbs
    turbotubbs Posts: 19,512
    CorrectHorseBat said:

    We thinking a draw for test 1 then?

    Depends. I think it’s possible England collapse in a heap tomorrow and set less than 150 as a target. Definitely have draw then Aus then Eng as the order of probability right now.
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,433
    algarkirk said:

    A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.

    But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.

    I doubt most folks would disagree with you.

    It’s the wanton absence of leadership that enrages people.
  • Fairliered
    Fairliered Posts: 6,027
    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull.

    Without the highlight of driving through Selby.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Video emerges of Rishi Sunak making a joke about trans/men with penises etc

    https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/leaked-video-rishi-sunak-trans-b2359829.html

    Sunak doesn't have a very clear grasp of the law if he thinks there isn't such a thing as a woman with a penis. Legally people can change gender without the need to change their sex organs.

    But Rishi has trouble remembering not to go to parties in lockdowns, and remembering to put his seatbelt on when in a car, so we shouldn't expect too much from him.
    Like almost everyone with at least two brain cells to rub together, Rishi Sunak is probably well aware that men have penises and not vaginas, whereas women have vaginas and not penises. If the law says otherwise, the law can f*ck off. What would you do if the law told you to stick your head in the oven?

    More interesting is the apparent fact that somebody is destabilising the British government. Now who might that be, and why?
    Oh that's easy, it's the Conservative and Unionist Party.
    I forgot to add: the administration of the Tory party is also being destabilised.
    Different victim, same culprit. You could call it a murder-suicide.
    The CCHQ video, the Sunak 1922 video - what next?

    Got to wonder whether the Sue Gray and Keir Starmer op will turn out to be a sting. (I wouldn't trust anyone who once ran a pub in Newry, but even they are capable of being successfully stitched up.)

    A question for parliamentary and civil service procedure legal eagles: if Sue gets told that discussing working for Keir while she was still a permanent secretary would have got her the sack had anybody known about it - which she may well - where does that leave Keir? As LOTO and a former DPP, he might find it hard to plead ignorance. Surely suborning civil servants to break the rules has got to be considered naughty somewhere along the line.
    It's a very hypothetical question. Senior civil servants I imagine aren't expected to have no conflicts of interest, but are expected to manage them appropriately. Many people leave the civil service to take on jobs that are more explicitly political than Sue Gray's role of chief of staff for the Labour Party. There's actually a process to support civil servants becoming MPs -.job will be kept for them if they fail to win.

    If Sue Gray deals with a conflict of interest by leaving the Civil Service, where's the issue now?
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    CorrectHorseBat said:

    Which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister? (Red Wall):

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 40% (-1)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-4)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 11 Jun

    (Changes with 28 May)

    Better. I approve of this polling organisation.
  • Stuartinromford
    Stuartinromford Posts: 19,148
    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull.

    Journey time seems to be similar, assuming that Bradford to Hull is by train.
  • Fairliered
    Fairliered Posts: 6,027
    FF43 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Video emerges of Rishi Sunak making a joke about trans/men with penises etc

    https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/leaked-video-rishi-sunak-trans-b2359829.html

    Sunak doesn't have a very clear grasp of the law if he thinks there isn't such a thing as a woman with a penis. Legally people can change gender without the need to change their sex organs.

    But Rishi has trouble remembering not to go to parties in lockdowns, and remembering to put his seatbelt on when in a car, so we shouldn't expect too much from him.
    Like almost everyone with at least two brain cells to rub together, Rishi Sunak is probably well aware that men have penises and not vaginas, whereas women have vaginas and not penises. If the law says otherwise, the law can f*ck off. What would you do if the law told you to stick your head in the oven?

    More interesting is the apparent fact that somebody is destabilising the British government. Now who might that be, and why?
    Oh that's easy, it's the Conservative and Unionist Party.
    I forgot to add: the administration of the Tory party is also being destabilised.
    Different victim, same culprit. You could call it a murder-suicide.
    The CCHQ video, the Sunak 1922 video - what next?

    Got to wonder whether the Sue Gray and Keir Starmer op will turn out to be a sting. (I wouldn't trust anyone who once ran a pub in Newry, but even they are capable of being successfully stitched up.)

    A question for parliamentary and civil service procedure legal eagles: if Sue gets told that discussing working for Keir while she was still a permanent secretary would have got her the sack had anybody known about it - which she may well - where does that leave Keir? As LOTO and a former DPP, he might find it hard to plead ignorance. Surely suborning civil servants to break the rules has got to be considered naughty somewhere along the line.
    It's a very hypothetical question. Senior civil servants I imagine aren't expected to have no conflicts of interest, but are expected to manage them appropriately. Many people leave the civil service to take on jobs that are more explicitly political than Sue Gray's role of chief of staff for the Labour Party. There's actually a process to support civil servants becoming MPs -.job will be kept for them if they fail to win.

    If Sue Gray deals with a conflict of interest by leaving the Civil Service, where's the issue now?
    It’s ridiculous to assume that, unlike almost everyone else, civil servants have no interest or views about politics. Most people keep their political views separate from their work. There’s no reason that civil servants should be any different.
  • DougSeal
    DougSeal Posts: 12,785
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    It's pretty much all change in politics in the UK - certainly for the Tories the old guard are out, and it's long been the case that Labour have ejected the beard folk. The Greens move on a little too, and no doubt the LDs will follow.

    Who though are the future stars? I'll suggest two - for the Tories it's Alex Chalk, and for Labour, Matthew Pennycook.

    I don't view these as next leader material in either case, but one day. I'm not surprised that I can't name a possible Green star, but I am a little surprised that I can't find a good LD prospect.

    With so few seats, it’s a thin pool, made thinner by the LibDem’s obsession with selection by identity.

    Daisy Cooper is almost certainly next leader.
    Yes Daisy’s next in line. I think she’ll do well, better than Swinson, Cable or Farron (I think Davey’s quietly doing a very good job).

    But for dearth of star quality look at the greens. Even the clown show that is Refuk manages to turn out people with bucket loads more charisma than the current green crop, post Lucas.
    Sian Berry was fun at college. She was the Entertainments Officer at Trinity JCR. I met my wife at a college disco she organised.
    Is the issue (and your post confirms my suspicions) the constitution of the party which prevents charismatic individuals from taking the limelight?

    Siam Berry certainly speaks reasonably well and is telegenic. But she’s not allowed to be the “leader” because that would be somehow be inappropriate for the egalitarian greens.
    She was co-leader of the Greens for 3 or 4 years. I’m not sure what you’re on about
    “Co”. Precisely.
    Well, she’s running to replace the Green’s only MP, Caroline Lucas, which should give her a very high profile if successful
    I expect (sadly) Labour might snaffle that one. I hope I’m wrong.
    I agree
  • Landsend
    Landsend Posts: 38
    Fairliered said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull.

    Without the highlight of driving through Selby.
    Both are actually right. Rcs is correctly observing the exorbitant privilege of the elites in the us blue states and leon is correctly observing the decay in much of the rest of the country.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    The median family income in Kentucky is about $55,000 a year:
    Here's the source, which has many other facts: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/KY/INC110221

    And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive

    (Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)

    The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)

    But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.

    Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV

    America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD

    In short: America is fucked

    Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities

    But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America

    Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
    Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
    Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.

    I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems

    America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics

    Now I must drive to the airport
    Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
  • Landsend
    Landsend Posts: 38
    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    The median family income in Kentucky is about $55,000 a year:
    Here's the source, which has many other facts: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/KY/INC110221

    And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive

    (Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)

    The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)

    But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.

    Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV

    America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD

    In short: America is fucked

    Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities

    But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America

    Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
    Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
    Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.

    I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems

    America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics

    Now I must drive to the airport
    Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
    Absolutely. The us is a divided country. Walking round tony boston suburbs saying all is fine is as bad as walking round a west virginia mining town and saying everything is falling apart.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    algarkirk said:

    A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.

    But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.

    I feel guilty about this.given the sacrifices people made during lockdown to keep the rest of us safe, but that video is laugh-aloud hilarious. It's a perfectly scripted noughties TV political comedy show with the slick young men stage whispering their dialogue and the drunken disco dancing in the background in Christmas jumpers.

    As an aside I wonder why it took three years for the video to come to light. Who was biding their time and why? Why did no-one in the video consider how it might look if the video was leaked?
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    boulay said:

    …

    FF43 said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Video emerges of Rishi Sunak making a joke about trans/men with penises etc

    https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/leaked-video-rishi-sunak-trans-b2359829.html

    Rishi Sunak's joke as crap as everything else he does.
    True, on his death bed he will be bemoaning having had a crap education, a crap career that delivered no success and riches, a crap second career where he was Chancellor of the exchequer then PM, a crap marriage to a billionaire and most likely a crap existence after politics. His final words will be “if only I had been less crap and as successful as FF43.”
    interesting that this oft plagiarised line from a long dead footballer with talent should be brought up now when discussing comic timing. Find your own homilies.
  • Flatlander
    Flatlander Posts: 5,137
    edited June 2023
    Fairliered said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull.

    Without the highlight of driving through Selby.
    via Dewsbury - Wakefield - Pontefract - Knottingley - Goole is probably least appetising.

    But even then, Pontefract Castle isn't the worst thing to visit. Not much to write home about in Goole though...
  • sarissa
    sarissa Posts: 2,190
    edited June 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Off to (a very hot) Budapest tomorrow.

    Any tips?

    To escape the heat, take the Children’s Railway up into the hills with a picnic. Or just chill out in one of the thermal spas - Gellert was my favourite. The parliament buildings out-Gothics Westminster, albeit without the history.
  • sarissa
    sarissa Posts: 2,190
    Farooq said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Off to (a very hot) Budapest tomorrow.

    Any tips?

    Trip to Tokaj and vineyard tour with tastings.
    A bit far to go - Pannonhalma Archabbey is fascinating and has a renowned winery.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Leon said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Leon said:

    This is what I came through. The East End


    “I’m not against the homeless, I’m a social worker, and I’ve worked with the homeless about 15 years. But this is different, this is a different kind of homeless” said Mallory.

    Billie Mallory says her concerns are with people at the Third Street and Martin Luther King corner and Third Street and Elm Tree corner.

    She says she has seen an increase in property damage, loitering, and violence.

    “They’re all over this neighborhood and they’re just, they’re very threatening” said Mallory.“

    https://www.wtvq.com/concerns-over-the-homeless-population-in-lexingtons-east-end/

    East End = predominately African American, historically and today. (Tpoff being corner of 3rd and MLK.)

    Always been deprived area. Even more so by COVID and post-pandemic fentanyl-homeless epidemic.
    But downtown itself feels sketchy and
    uncomfortable. I wouldn’t bring kids here. It’s faintly but discernibly menacing - and this is a beautiful sunny Sunday afternoon!

    I don’t think I’m imagining this


    “Maybe social media has created civilian watchdogs; maybe more people care about what’s going on in their community. Many people are tired of having to avoid going out downtown and spending time with family and friends because the risk of getting assaulted, robbed or shot is there.

    “This is just an observation I have made during my time living here in Lexington. It is so much different then when I was a naive kid making weekend trips with my family here”


    https://kykernel.com/88715/opinions/as-lexington-grows-so-does-its-crime/

    Nor do I believe I have been just incredibly unlucky in almost every American town I’ve visited
    Get yourself over to Asheville, my friend.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Perhaps we could devise various travel routes for Leon.

    Some of which designed to make an area look as affluent as possible and some designed to make an area look as deprived as possible.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    CorrectHorseBat said:

    Rishi Sunak takes the piss out of trans people in leaked footage, what a delightful man he is

    Halfwits believe any headline they read, check the story dumbass and I detest Tories
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