The Archbishop’s attack on the small boats plan makes several front pages – politicalbetting.com

RochdalePioneers said:

Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.

Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.

RochdalePioneers said:

Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.

Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.

Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.

Did you try out the new Luton DART link to the train station? Opened less than 2 months ago.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

Now that’s what I call a bollocking….

Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch

https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/1656684232423399424

Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.

Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?

I was referring to when they were last in power. This has been an increasingly annoying issue ever since the start of this century. I don't immediately remember Major or those before him being rebuked for this so regularly.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Carnyx said:

Farooq said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category

It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.

That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.

You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?

You want credit for being a "loan voice"?

Rentagob?

Seems a little harsh @Carnyx. You are normally very polite for a nationalist apologist. I guess there are a lot of things for you to be cross about. What is your view of the state of Scottish Nationalism at the moment? A choice between a bunch of crooks or the quasi-fascist Alba? The parties of Anglophobia have never been so unclothed, and boy, do they look ugly eh?

Andy_JS said:

Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?

northern_monkey said:

A royal superfan was arrested and held by police for 13 hours because she happened to be standing next to a group of Just Stop Oil protesters ahead of the King’s coronation...

“I was just sitting on my little stool and I noticed there was some yelling and then some police swooped in and were pushing the crowd back,” she told i.

“I must have been right on the edge of that, I went to get up and two police officers just grabbed me and handcuffed me. I don’t think they said anything, I think they arrested me before they asked a question.

“I feel like once I was in the system they didn’t listen, I tried to explain that I wasn’t part of the group.”

https://apple.news/AkaYHB7fISb-wTjPltQJnsg

What a shower of shite. It’s outrageous.

Andy_JS said:

Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?

TheScreamingEagles said:

We need to stop supporting Ukraine after this grave insult.

The reason Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t want the UK to host Eurovision

The Ukrainian leader says nations such as Slovakia or Poland would have been his preference for staging Saturday’s ceremony


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/11/zelensky-eurovision-hosting-nation-uk/

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We need to stop supporting Ukraine after this grave insult.

The reason Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t want the UK to host Eurovision

The Ukrainian leader says nations such as Slovakia or Poland would have been his preference for staging Saturday’s ceremony


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/11/zelensky-eurovision-hosting-nation-uk/

On the contrary, I haven't read the article (paywall) but it no doubt explains that Zelensky was keen to save the UK from the embarrassment of coming last at its own Eurovision.

What a hero, what a true friend.

BlancheLivermore said:

I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)

The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around

I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel

I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We need to stop supporting Ukraine after this grave insult.

The reason Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t want the UK to host Eurovision

The Ukrainian leader says nations such as Slovakia or Poland would have been his preference for staging Saturday’s ceremony


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/11/zelensky-eurovision-hosting-nation-uk/

On the contrary, I haven't read the article (paywall) but it no doubt explains that Zelensky was keen to save the UK from the embarrassment of coming last at its own Eurovision.

What a hero, what a true friend.

Er, the UK came 2nd last year!

AlistairM said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)

The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around

I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel

I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now

I've really enjoyed your travelogue. I hope you enjoyed the "break"! Out of interest as well as just steps do you happen to record the overall path you have taken? It would be good to see if you have.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Andy_JS said:

Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?

In Canada, Province of British Columbia, as I recall for couple of provincial general elections late 1940s - early 1950s.

TheScreamingEagles said:

We need to stop supporting Ukraine after this grave insult.

The reason Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t want the UK to host Eurovision

The Ukrainian leader says nations such as Slovakia or Poland would have been his preference for staging Saturday’s ceremony


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/11/zelensky-eurovision-hosting-nation-uk/

FF43 said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

It's possible to be boring and unhinged at the same time.

carnforth said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)

The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around

I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel

I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now

It can be nice in Northern France in May. Many moons ago I made the mistake of booking a hotel in Lille in August, coming up from the South, forgetting that cheap hotels in the north tend not to have aircon. An unpleasant two nights.

turbotubbs said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Can I be on the list of too boring to make any of the first four lists?

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

Now that’s what I call a bollocking….

Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch

https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/1656684232423399424

Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.

Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?

I was referring to when they were last in power. This has been an increasingly annoying issue ever since the start of this century. I don't immediately remember Major or those before him being rebuked for this so regularly.

I don't remember it being an issue with the last Labour government but I bow to your better memory.

Is it a feature of the modern comms, the internet etc? There's a bit of me that thinks, so what if a press briefing is given before the HoC?

FrankBooth said:

Good news on the way?

Earnings rising by 7% a year whilst house prices forecast to fall 5 or maybe 10%. If earnings rise 4-5% for another five years and house prices remain stable the ratio of prices to earnings* would go from 9:1 to about 6.5:1 - which I could live with.

*back of cigarette packet calculation.

Roger said:

Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image

Dialup said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image

I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.

The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.

What is wrong with cleaning loos?

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.

https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350

You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...

I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)

That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now

Nigelb said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

“I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered.”

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image

I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.

The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson felt so betrayed by Rishi Sunak’s resignation that he considered sending him a video calling him a four-letter word, his former director of communications has claimed.

Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, precipitated the end of Johnson’s government after resigning last summer.

Guto Harri, Johnson’s former director of communications, said on his new podcast, Unprecedented: “Rishi walked out. Didn’t even tell Boris he was going to go. Basically, he went public with a resignation. And a few days later, Boris found a little video on the internet that expressed what he wanted to say to Rishi. He didn’t send it, but he sent it to me and said, ‘thinking of sending this to Rishi’.

“Video plays: ‘you’re a c***.’ So, there you have it. If you really want to know how Boris Johnson felt about Rishi Sunak in the immediate aftermath of his toppling and the great betrayal of all time as he sees it, there you have it.”

Harri also claimed that Johnson described Sue Gray’s investigation into the Downing Street parties scandal as an “orgy of pain, abuse and humiliation”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnson-considered-sending-sunak-a-video-calling-him-a-c-hmlm38qk5

Good on Rishi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Obviously you missed the list of modest, working class, and humble PBers of which I would have been the sole member of.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Obviously you missed the list of modest, working class, and humble PBers of which I would have been the sole member of.

There's clearly a special category for awesome punners.

I'd also be on that list.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

You've submitted at least ten puns in the hope one would get you on it.

Sadly, no pun in ten did.

Today I bought a dog from the local blacksmith, as soon as we arrived home he made a bolt for the door.

Roger said:

FrankBooth said:

Good news on the way?

Earnings rising by 7% a year whilst house prices forecast to fall 5 or maybe 10%. If earnings rise 4-5% for another five years and house prices remain stable the ratio of prices to earnings* would go from 9:1 to about 6.5:1 - which I could live with.

*back of cigarette packet calculation.

Don't waste your fag packets. We're in the shit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Q:Did you hear about the French chef who killed himself?

A: He lost his huile d'olive.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Q:Did you hear about the French chef who killed himself?

A: He lost his huile d'olive.

Phil said:

The Met absolutely covering themselves with glory over the coronation here: https://twitter.com/SteveRobson04/status/1656644951978004483

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Q:Did you hear about the French chef who killed himself?

A: He lost his huile d'olive.

What cheese would you use to disguise a horse?

Marscapone.

Why would you disguise a horse?

To hide a dodgy fetalock.

Edit - the irony is TSE first posted that pun, because he didn't get it!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

It's possible to be boring and unhinged at the same time.

First on list as solid (or dull) with my fellow oldy @OldKingCole

I am sure we will both take that

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

It's possible to be boring and unhinged at the same time.

First on list as solid (or dull) with my fellow oldy @OldKingCole

I am sure we will both take that

BlancheLivermore said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Q:Did you hear about the French chef who killed himself?

A: He lost his huile d'olive.

What cheese would you use to disguise a horse?

Marscapone.

Why would you disguise a horse?

To hide a dodgy fetalock.

Edit - the irony is TSE first posted that pun, because he didn't get it!

My head was frazelled that day.

I had just got fired from my job at the keyboard factory.

I wasn't putting in enough shifts.

Frazelled?

Are you showing off your foreign language skills again?