Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 45.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: 52.1% Sinan Ogan : 2.7%
Between 7 May and 10 May, face-to-face interviews were held with 2795 voters in 26 provinces. Confidence interval was calculated as 95% and margin of error was calculated as ±1.5.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
No. But a fascinating trip is North to South Kentucky. From the stud farms and white picket fences of Lexington and Louisville to the people selling their socks on their porches as you near Cumberland Gap.
Cincinnati? All I remember is the brown and beige airport.
Seemed a bit contrived and silly to me. I normally like him but he would be best to show a little more humility before he starts seeming like his predecessor
In this case Badenoch was well out of order - purporting that it was only the Speaker’s “preference” that statements be made in the HoC before appearing in the Daily Telegraph - he was right to haul her up, and right to shut down what looked like it was going to be a non apology apology. “I’m sorry if you were offended…..”
Seemed a bit contrived and silly to me. I normally like him but he would be best to show a little more humility before he starts seeming like his predecessor
In this case Badenoch was well out of order - purporting that it was only the Speaker’s “preference” that statements be made in the HoC before appearing in the Daily Telegraph - he was right to haul her up, and right to shut down what looked like it was going to be a non apology apology. “I’m sorry if you were offended…..”
Agreed, but think he over did it a bit. Made him look a bit silly
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery. ..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ? (I think we can rule out simony.)
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?
Steve Barclay
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs
Things have moved on from last election HY! Different people will stand, stock levels have gone up and down.
It’s what you are not saying isn’t it. You are saying Braverman won’t get into last 2. You are not saying what happens if she does…
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasigly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they wshould be briefing MPs first.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.
Not a military event with soldiers and tanks etc, an insidious, top to bottom corruption of politics and the judiciary. The chance that American democracy is debauched beyond recognition in that way by 4 more years of Trump? - greater than 50% imo.
How to get a third term must be vexing DJT. The bar for a constitutional amendment is almost impossibly high. Some SCOTUS shenanigans?
I think he'd be content enough to pass it on to one of his kids, Ivanka or Junior, but I'd expect him to use starting the process to amend the constitution to allow a third term as a loyalty test for Republicans and to distract Democrats.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged) Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.
I did spend a lot of time considering that question and I am afraid that - whilst I never believe things are as black and white as they are painted - I did come to the conclusion that Trump really didn't and doesn't give a Monkey's about the fate of the US Working and Middle classes. Their problems were a means to an end for him, nothing more. He would attempt to solve their problems where that improved his chances of re-election but so much of what he did was really just lip service.
Now I know I can't prove this. It is really nothing more than a gut feeling based on my own personal biases and my observations. But I think that it is a reasonable view to adopt - at least in the absence of any evidence to the contrary.
It passes the 'balance of probabilities' civil test, Richard, let's just say that. And for me it cruises past the criminal one too. Can a reasonable person have an iota of doubt that Donald Trump cares nothing for anything other than himself? I don't think so.
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.
Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.
One thing is for sure, whenever Labour are in power it is generally a bad day for the economy
Ever day for the economy has been bad for the last 13 years.
I think you will find that is not necessarily true. The economy recovered quite well after Labour left (the old "there is no money left" moment). It obviously did badly during the pandemic, like the rest of the world, and now it is doing OK according to the independent bank of England.
I was obviously being facetious anyway. There have been the odd day when the economy has done well under Labour.
Sadly that isn't likely to happen under Kier, because unlike the Blair government, none of his front bench has any understanding of business. They are just into hosing money at the public sector which they will attempt to do until they have an inevitable Liz Truss moment.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
No. But a fascinating trip is North to South Kentucky. From the stud farms and white picket fences of Lexington and Louisville to the people selling their socks on their porches as you near Cumberland Gap.
Cincinnati? All I remember is the brown and beige airport.
Ta
Yes I think this is the only way of making the trip tolerable. Grit my teeth and do the city (Jeez) but then rent a car and do a roadtrip around Kentucky, Virginia and the Carolinas. And that WILL be interesting
I could even loop in Washington DC. Never been, and surely everyone needs to go at least once
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
You must NOT try “Cincinnati Chilli” - when I tried it the one and only time I did the shredded cheese was added by bare hand by a lady with nail extensions…..
The former train station is a quite striking Art Deco structure, now a museum, then there’s a global multinational headquarters nicknamed “The Dolly Parton” building…Don’t go “Over the Rhein”….and there’s a never completed underground railway system.
The standard defence was “it’s a great place to bring up children”…..
Only ever visited from the other side of the planet - the advantage was with a 12h time difference there was no need to adjust my watch….
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
Cincinnati is the type of middle American place that decides Presidential elections so you might get a better feel for 2024 there. Former US President Taft was born there. The late Jerry Springer was also its Mayor I believe
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
This might be an opportunity to find sublime joy in the mundane and the ordinary.
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery. ..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ? (I think we can rule out simony.)
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?
Steve Barclay
I for one am delighted Kemi is showing common sense and if she has upset Mogg good on her
The ERG need putting in their box
That will only happen when moderates like you vote against the Tory party. Til then they have licence to do what they're doing.
It is a process that needs to be fought within the party much like Starmer in labour
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
Cincinnati? All I remember is the brown and beige airport.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 45.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: 52.1% Sinan Ogan : 2.7%
Between 7 May and 10 May, face-to-face interviews were held with 2795 voters in 26 provinces. Confidence interval was calculated as 95% and margin of error was calculated as ±1.5.
Anyone know what's likely to happen? Are the polls reliable? Will Erdoğan go quietly if he loses?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.
Not a military event with soldiers and tanks etc, an insidious, top to bottom corruption of politics and the judiciary. The chance that American democracy is debauched beyond recognition in that way by 4 more years of Trump? - greater than 50% imo.
How to get a third term must be vexing DJT. The bar for a constitutional amendment is almost impossibly high. Some SCOTUS shenanigans?
Or a puppet maybe, like Putin arranged for his interregnum.
Who, though? He certainly doesn't trust anyone and he doesn’t appear to like anyone. The only one I could see is Ivanka but she has quit MAGAworld. I don't think he'd give DJTJ a job licking stamps. Eric, LOL.
Eric would certainly fancy a crack at it. But, yes, you're right. The family is a disappointment to him. There's no Michael.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
OT. Sad to see that Downing Street has bottled reforms that could makea real difference to people's lives.
No I am not talking about dropping the EU bonfire (which I agree with) but watering down Gove's proposed reforms of leasehold.
I thought Gove's idea was great and the excuse that Downing street are giving - that there is not enough time for majr reforms before the next election - is weak in the extreme.
“I have a great idea that will really help people.” “But I’ve just been having lunch with lobbyists who hate your idea. And I’m the boss, so there.”
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged) Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
Now I woiuldn't mind seeing that (the museum, not getting shot). Lots of nuclear holocaust hardware to keep Leon happy, right up- to the B-70 Valkyrie prototype and Minuteman and Titan.
You have to remember that Leon went to Wick and missed the Pulteneytown grand urban development, with its links to L. S. Lowry.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
You must NOT try “Cincinnati Chilli” - when I tried it the one and only time I did the shredded cheese was added by bare hand by a lady with nail extensions…..
The former train station is a quite striking Art Deco structure, now a museum, then there’s a global multinational headquarters nicknamed “The Dolly Parton” building…Don’t go “Over the Rhein”….and there’s a never completed underground railway system.
The standard defence was “it’s a great place to bring up children”…..
Only ever visited from the other side of the planet - the advantage was with a 12h time difference there was no need to adjust my watch….
I have actually read about Cincinnati chili. It was in this Spectator article...
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged) Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
It has a Bonsai Society and the Krohn Conservatory has a fine collection of bonsai trees. A museum of fire fighting. A horse trough. A Creation Museum is close by, proving that Adam had a pet dinosaur. Why not hire a coach and we can all go?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery. ..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ? (I think we can rule out simony.)
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?
Steve Barclay
I for one am delighted Kemi is showing common sense and if she has upset Mogg good on her
The ERG need putting in their box
That will only happen when moderates like you vote against the Tory party. Til then they have licence to do what they're doing.
It is a process that needs to be fought within the party much like Starmer in labour
Yes, but unless they actually, you know, start to do that then you have to stay away from them. This is why Labour look streets ahead of the Tories right now. They're dealing with their nutters. The Tories are putting them into the cabinet.
OT. Sad to see that Downing Street has bottled reforms that could makea real difference to people's lives.
No I am not talking about dropping the EU bonfire (which I agree with) but watering down Gove's proposed reforms of leasehold.
I thought Gove's idea was great and the excuse that Downing street are giving - that there is not enough time for majr reforms before the next election - is weak in the extreme.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.
One thing is for sure, whenever Labour are in power it is generally a bad day for the economy
Ever day for the economy has been bad for the last 13 years.
I think you will find that is not necessarily true. The economy recovered quite well after Labour left (the old "there is no money left" moment). It obviously did badly during the pandemic, like the rest of the world, and now it is doing OK according to the independent bank of England.
I was obviously being facetious anyway. There have been the odd day when the economy has done well under Labour.
Sadly that isn't likely to happen under Kier, because unlike the Blair government, none of his front bench has any understanding of business. They are just into hosing money at the public sector which they will attempt to do until they have an inevitable Liz Truss moment.
Load of nonsense. Listen to what Rachel Reeves and Keir have actually said.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
No. But a fascinating trip is North to South Kentucky. From the stud farms and white picket fences of Lexington and Louisville to the people selling their socks on their porches as you near Cumberland Gap.
Cincinnati? All I remember is the brown and beige airport.
Ta
Yes I think this is the only way of making the trip tolerable. Grit my teeth and do the city (Jeez) but then rent a car and do a roadtrip around Kentucky, Virginia and the Carolinas. And that WILL be interesting
I could even loop in Washington DC. Never been, and surely everyone needs to go at least once
Washington DC - the Air and Space Museum is the American tech equivalent of an Italian Renaiisance gallery in Rome or Florsence. Just walking in, and seeing Lindbergh's plane, the Wright Flyer, and Apollo 11 in the same gallery in the lobby is a huge national oneupmanship effort. But it has been reworked since I went, and a lot of the larger stuff is out at the airport at what is now a second museum.
The Holocaust Museum is quite a sight - also for the architecture. Edit: as are a number of the other museums.
Seemed a bit contrived and silly to me. I normally like him but he would be best to show a little more humility before he starts seeming like his predecessor
In this case Badenoch was well out of order - purporting that it was only the Speaker’s “preference” that statements be made in the HoC before appearing in the Daily Telegraph - he was right to haul her up, and right to shut down what looked like it was going to be a non apology apology. “I’m sorry if you were offended…..”
Agreed, but think he over did it a bit. Made him look a bit silly
He clearly held too much back.
Little Miss Smug Pants began with “I’m terribly sorry if our sequence of releasing this announcement is not to your liking…”
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged) Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
Of course you got black flagged. We wouldn't expect anything less. But did you come in or just ignore it?
OT. Sad to see that Downing Street has bottled reforms that could makea real difference to people's lives.
No I am not talking about dropping the EU bonfire (which I agree with) but watering down Gove's proposed reforms of leasehold.
I thought Gove's idea was great and the excuse that Downing street are giving - that there is not enough time for majr reforms before the next election - is weak in the extreme.
Especially when they have a majority of 70 or so.
Yebbut - all those Tory donors who are also freeholders...
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
By American standards at least Cincinnati has a cool and unusual name.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
Congrats on the Malvern Gazette and Ledbury Reporter gig. Next stop Hereford Times!
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery. ..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ? (I think we can rule out simony.)
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?
Steve Barclay
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs
Things have moved on from last election HY! Different people will stand, stock levels have gone up and down.
It’s what you are not saying isn’t it. You are saying Braverman won’t get into last 2. You are not saying what happens if she does…
Conservative leadership rules are that 1/3 of the party in the Commons is enough to get through to the membership.
So- will the batso right of the Conservatives have less than 1/3 of the MPs after the next election? Lovely to think that will be the case, but it's not obvious that it will be so.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 45.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: 52.1% Sinan Ogan : 2.7%
Between 7 May and 10 May, face-to-face interviews were held with 2795 voters in 26 provinces. Confidence interval was calculated as 95% and margin of error was calculated as ±1.5.
Anyone know what's likely to happen? Are the polls reliable? Will Erdoğan go quietly if he loses?
The answer to the second part is no. He is already lining up arguments about the validity of the poll if he loses. He has definitely been taking lessons from Trump and in Turkey's case it is not clear that the institutions (army, police etc) will not back him.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Calvin Trillin has visited Cincinnati -- and had some interesting things to say about it.
(I disagree with him on politics. but he is an entertaining travel writer. He admits writing for The Nation, which has never quite recovered from its Stalinist phase, but he loves good food, made by unpretentious people.)
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasigly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they wshould be briefing MPs first.
Well directed. What a louche arrogant unpleasant Tory. Definite leadership material
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.
Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?
I was referring to when they were last in power. This has been an increasingly annoying issue ever since the start of this century. I don't immediately remember Major or those before him being rebuked for this so regularly.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
I woke up this morning with an absolutely insanely good idea for a smartphone app.
Rolled over for another 15 mins snooze and forgot it. Now I can only remember I had an idea, not what it was.
There'd be no "Yesterday" if this had happened with Paul.
I once woke up having dreamt what I thought was a brilliant hitherto undiscovered melody for the chorus of a rock song. I'd been humming it to myself for about an hour (and devising the lyrics) before realizing it was more or less the saxophone part in Baker Street.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged) Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
Of course you got black flagged. We wouldn't expect anything less. But did you come in or just ignore it?
Came in, anticipating a Cale Yarborough vs Donnie Allison style pit lane punch up that never happened. NASCAR cars are insanely hard to drive really fast. I've also driven a late 90s F1 car and I'd rate the NASCAR beast harder to drive at ten tenths.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 45.2% Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: 52.1% Sinan Ogan : 2.7%
Between 7 May and 10 May, face-to-face interviews were held with 2795 voters in 26 provinces. Confidence interval was calculated as 95% and margin of error was calculated as ±1.5.
Anyone know what's likely to happen? Are the polls reliable? Will Erdoğan go quietly if he loses?
The answer to the second part is no. He is already lining up arguments about the validity of the poll if he loses. He has definitely been taking lessons from Trump and in Turkey's case it is not clear that the institutions (army, police etc) will not back him.
I posted earlier that the opposition really want this won this weekend as the 2 elections (Presidential and Parliamentary) running hand in hand make it harder to fake results - if the 6 opposition parties win 5x% of the vote, Erdogan can't really claim to have won 50% himself .
That isn't true if a run off is required as the Parliamentary electoral system is 1 round D'Hondt based election.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery. ..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ? (I think we can rule out simony.)
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?
Steve Barclay
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs
Things have moved on from last election HY! Different people will stand, stock levels have gone up and down.
It’s what you are not saying isn’t it. You are saying Braverman won’t get into last 2. You are not saying what happens if she does…
Conservative leadership rules are that 1/3 of the party in the Commons is enough to get through to the membership.
So- will the batso right of the Conservatives have less than 1/3 of the MPs after the next election? Lovely to think that will be the case, but it's not obvious that it will be so.
Good point. Are the sane ones more under threat from losing seat than the barking ones. Another reason why HY is wrong to base the next first phase on what happened in the last one.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
You want credit for being a "loan voice"?
To lead rather than to follow. Or be out in the wilderness.
Without wishing to be immodest I think it is fair to say that not many people believe the "Russia Report" now do they? I think I was also a loan voice amongst those on the centre right who thought Boris Johnson was a complete disaster.
Being a loan voice doesn't necessarily mean I am wrong. But then again it doesn't necessarily mean I am right either!
Comments
https://twitter.com/SerArastirma/status/1656659252088569856
May 14 Presidential Preferences
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 45.2%
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: 52.1%
Sinan Ogan : 2.7%
Between 7 May and 10 May, face-to-face interviews were held with 2795 voters in 26 provinces. Confidence interval was calculated as 95% and margin of error was calculated as ±1.5.
Cincinnati? All I remember is the brown and beige airport.
1. Topping
A gobblin’ onanophile?
It’s what you are not saying isn’t it. You are saying Braverman won’t get into last 2. You are not saying what happens if she does…
Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CsGq2xfsq9t/?img_index=1
I was obviously being facetious anyway. There have been the odd day when the economy has done well under Labour.
Sadly that isn't likely to happen under Kier, because unlike the Blair government, none of his front bench has any understanding of business. They are just into hosing money at the public sector which they will attempt to do until they have an inevitable Liz Truss moment.
Yes I think this is the only way of making the trip tolerable. Grit my teeth and do the city (Jeez) but then rent a car and do a roadtrip around Kentucky, Virginia and the Carolinas. And that WILL be interesting
I could even loop in Washington DC. Never been, and surely everyone needs to go at least once
The former train station is a quite striking Art Deco structure, now a museum, then there’s a global multinational headquarters nicknamed “The Dolly Parton” building…Don’t go “Over the Rhein”….and there’s a never completed underground railway system.
The standard defence was “it’s a great place to bring up children”…..
Only ever visited from the other side of the planet - the advantage was with a 12h time difference there was no need to adjust my watch….
solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy
possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000
definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls
completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup
. .
Might be.
Although my therapist says I am normal.
“But I’ve just been having lunch with lobbyists who hate your idea. And I’m the boss, so there.”
You have to remember that Leon went to Wick and missed the Pulteneytown grand urban development, with its links to L. S. Lowry.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/whod-want-to-move-to-america-now/
OGH
TSE
Benpointer and, er...
Farooq
“Sometimes it is the people who no one imagines anything of who do the things that no one can imagine.”
This is why Labour look streets ahead of the Tories right now. They're dealing with their nutters. The Tories are putting them into the cabinet.
As is LuckyGuy1983
The Holocaust Museum is quite a sight - also for the architecture. Edit: as are a number of the other museums.
And allow phone masts to be built anywhere. Rejections should be made illegal.
Little Miss Smug Pants began with “I’m terribly sorry if our sequence of releasing this announcement is not to your liking…”
I’m surprised the speaker was so reserved!
Rolled over for another 15 mins snooze and forgot it. Now I can only remember I had an idea, not what it was.
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/mad-women
A mast just got rejected in Wandsworth.
The reason: causes cancer.
Should be ignored and built. Doesn’t matter where.
You can do this, I believe in you.
"Definitely a bit unhinged" - @Farooq
Anyone with a London detached house? Nice thermally insulated country pad available.
⚡️The owner of the PMC, Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the situation on the flanks in the #Bakhmut area is developing for the Russians "in the worst case scenario."
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1656685919242534912
So- will the batso right of the Conservatives have less than 1/3 of the MPs after the next election? Lovely to think that will be the case, but it's not obvious that it will be so.
BTW, DavidL, Cicero, Stuartinromford Stodge and Gallowgate always excellent reading though never (unlike me) dull.
(I disagree with him on politics. but he is an entertaining travel writer. He admits writing for The Nation, which has never quite recovered from its Stalinist phase, but he loves good food, made by unpretentious people.)
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
That isn't true if a run off is required as the Parliamentary electoral system is 1 round D'Hondt based election.
(just kiddin')
Without wishing to be immodest I think it is fair to say that not many people believe the "Russia Report" now do they? I think I was also a loan voice amongst those on the centre right who thought Boris Johnson was a complete disaster.
Being a loan voice doesn't necessarily mean I am wrong. But then again it doesn't necessarily mean I am right either!