Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged) Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
So are we going to explain which is the right gate, and which is the wrong gate. Or just leave it there 😈
I woke up this morning with an absolutely insanely good idea for a smartphone app.
Rolled over for another 15 mins snooze and forgot it. Now I can only remember I had an idea, not what it was.
There'd be no "Yesterday" if this had happened with Paul.
I once woke up having dreamt what I thought was a brilliant hitherto undiscovered melody for the chorus of a rock song. I'd been humming it to myself for about an hour (and devising the lyrics) before realizing it was more or less the saxophone part in Baker Street.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
You want credit for being a "loan voice"?
Rentagob?
Seems a little harsh @Carnyx. You are normally very polite for a nationalist apologist. I guess there are a lot of things for you to be cross about. What is your view of the state of Scottish Nationalism at the moment? A choice between a bunch of crooks or the quasi-fascist Alba? The parties of Anglophobia have never been so unclothed, and boy, do they look ugly eh?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
The long heralded Tory recovery continues. How could we have ever doubted it?
Just think what the Tories could do with a really charismatic leader like Penny Mordaunt. Backbenchers must be pondering that now. Is there any way that Rishi Sunak could be induced to fall on her sword - so to speak?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
You want credit for being a "loan voice"?
Rentagob?
Seems a little harsh @Carnyx. You are normally very polite for a nationalist apologist. I guess there are a lot of things for you to be cross about. What is your view of the state of Scottish Nationalism at the moment? A choice between a bunch of crooks or the quasi-fascist Alba? The parties of Anglophobia have never been so unclothed, and boy, do they look ugly eh?
Do you need the Loan Ranger to offer you flexible terms on your mortgage?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery. ..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ? (I think we can rule out simony.)
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?
Steve Barclay
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs
Things have moved on from last election HY! Different people will stand, stock levels have gone up and down.
It’s what you are not saying isn’t it. You are saying Braverman won’t get into last 2. You are not saying what happens if she does…
Conservative leadership rules are that 1/3 of the party in the Commons is enough to get through to the membership.
So- will the batso right of the Conservatives have less than 1/3 of the MPs after the next election? Lovely to think that will be the case, but it's not obvious that it will be so.
Good point. Are the sane ones more under threat from losing seat than the barking ones. Another reason why HY is wrong to base the next first phase on what happened in the last one.
That's a question with two parts. What happens in the reselection battles, and what happens at the General Election?
Centrists (the sort who might support Tugendhat) might struggle with the first, whereas the harder right (more Redwall-y?) may fail to hold their seats.
It's easy to see one of the final two being a pragmatic mainstream right-winger, like Barclay. As things stand, the harder right feel like favourites for the second spot, with the wets missing out.
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
I think you'll find that London City Airport offers all those options - and the three combined for the adventurous.
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
In times past, didn't German/Austrian railway stations have adult movie booths to allow customers to efficiently pass their time waiting for trains?
Imagine (or rather, don't) if Transpennine tried to do that.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)
The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around
I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel
I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now
A royal superfan was arrested and held by police for 13 hours because she happened to be standing next to a group of Just Stop Oil protesters ahead of the King’s coronation...
“I was just sitting on my little stool and I noticed there was some yelling and then some police swooped in and were pushing the crowd back,” she told i.
“I must have been right on the edge of that, I went to get up and two police officers just grabbed me and handcuffed me. I don’t think they said anything, I think they arrested me before they asked a question.
“I feel like once I was in the system they didn’t listen, I tried to explain that I wasn’t part of the group.”
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
Did you try out the new Luton DART link to the train station? Opened less than 2 months ago.
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
. .
There used to be a leather museum in Walsall, and a Jerome K Jerome one too. And the Walsall illuminations in the autumn, a bit like the Blackpool ones, only a lot smaller, and with no sea. I worked there for a bit. The leather museum was more horse than gimp orientated.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
Did you try out the new Luton DART link to the train station? Opened less than 2 months ago.
Cynical bastards as they are, Luton council knows that we'll all just tap in and out at either end and damn the cost...
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.
Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?
I was referring to when they were last in power. This has been an increasingly annoying issue ever since the start of this century. I don't immediately remember Major or those before him being rebuked for this so regularly.
I don't remember it being an issue with the last Labour government but I bow to your better memory.
Is it a feature of the modern comms, the internet etc? There's a bit of me that thinks, so what if a press briefing is given before the HoC?
I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)
The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around
I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel
I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now
I've really enjoyed your travelogue. I hope you enjoyed the "break"! Out of interest as well as just steps do you happen to record the overall path you have taken? It would be good to see if you have.
Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
You want credit for being a "loan voice"?
Rentagob?
Seems a little harsh @Carnyx. You are normally very polite for a nationalist apologist. I guess there are a lot of things for you to be cross about. What is your view of the state of Scottish Nationalism at the moment? A choice between a bunch of crooks or the quasi-fascist Alba? The parties of Anglophobia have never been so unclothed, and boy, do they look ugly eh?
If you keep insisting that the desire for independence is the same thing as nationalism, them you'll see nationalism everywhere.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category
It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.
That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.
You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?
You want credit for being a "loan voice"?
Rentagob?
Seems a little harsh @Carnyx. You are normally very polite for a nationalist apologist. I guess there are a lot of things for you to be cross about. What is your view of the state of Scottish Nationalism at the moment? A choice between a bunch of crooks or the quasi-fascist Alba? The parties of Anglophobia have never been so unclothed, and boy, do they look ugly eh?
A royal superfan was arrested and held by police for 13 hours because she happened to be standing next to a group of Just Stop Oil protesters ahead of the King’s coronation...
“I was just sitting on my little stool and I noticed there was some yelling and then some police swooped in and were pushing the crowd back,” she told i.
“I must have been right on the edge of that, I went to get up and two police officers just grabbed me and handcuffed me. I don’t think they said anything, I think they arrested me before they asked a question.
“I feel like once I was in the system they didn’t listen, I tried to explain that I wasn’t part of the group.”
I quite agree. Lock her up and throw away the key. She tried to "get up". Convicted out of her own mouth. She should have raised her hand and asked the police for permission to get up.
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
I think you'll find that London City Airport offers all those options...
Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?
France changed its two-round system for the 1986 elections to PR and reverted back in1988.
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
I think you'll find that London City Airport offers all those options...
OK I'll bite. Why does it do so?
It was a joke.
But you didn't mention biting before. I think they charge extra if you want to do that.
On the contrary, I haven't read the article (paywall) but it no doubt explains that Zelensky was keen to save the UK from the embarrassment of coming last at its own Eurovision.
On the contrary, I haven't read the article (paywall) but it no doubt explains that Zelensky was keen to save the UK from the embarrassment of coming last at its own Eurovision.
Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?
In Canada, Province of British Columbia, as I recall for couple of provincial general elections late 1940s - early 1950s.
I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)
The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around
I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel
I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now
It can be nice in Northern France in May. Many moons ago I made the mistake of booking a hotel in Lille in August, coming up from the South, forgetting that cheap hotels in the north tend not to have aircon. An unpleasant two nights.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
On the contrary, I haven't read the article (paywall) but it no doubt explains that Zelensky was keen to save the UK from the embarrassment of coming last at its own Eurovision.
What a hero, what a true friend.
Er, the UK came 2nd last year!
One swallow does not a summer make. For the last two decades we have been rubbish. Until Sam came along we’ve really rather sneered at it, and not bothered trying. Other nations send their best bands/artists/song writers. We sent Enbert Humperdinck… Remains to be seen what happens this year.
I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)
The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around
I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel
I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now
I've really enjoyed your travelogue. I hope you enjoyed the "break"! Out of interest as well as just steps do you happen to record the overall path you have taken? It would be good to see if you have.
I know where I’ve walked but haven’t plotted it on a map yet. It’s too fiddly to do on my phone, but I will do it on my computer when I get home. And I’ll definitely share it here
My brother who has just visited from his home in Amsterdam has a Ukrainian Mother and son living with him and his family. They've been living with them for over a year and now the son has reached 18 he's unable to return without being arrested and having his passport confiscated.
His mother who went to visit family in Kiev said there's a lot of ill feeling towards those who left the country and more so to those with boys who did. They are obliged to join the army at 18
They are not now planning to return when and if the war ends despite having a husband still living there
Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?
In Canada, Province of British Columbia, as I recall for couple of provincial general elections late 1940s - early 1950s.
The BC Liberals have just changed their name to BC United. Might get more support for their team.
Has there ever been a case of a country changing their voting system from FPTP to another system and then changing back to FPTP? Or alternatively changing from a non-FPTP system to FPTP?
In Canada, Province of British Columbia, as I recall for couple of provincial general elections late 1940s - early 1950s.
Was a change to AV. With a few multi-member constituencies. Then back again. Was a clever wheeze by the Lib-Con coalition to lock the CCF out of power. Was successful. To the extent that the SoCreds won and then ruled for decades.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
My brother who has just visited from his home in Amsterdam has a Ukrainian Mother and son living with him and his family. They've been living with them for over a year and now the son has reached 18 he's unable to return without being arrested and having his passport confiscated.
His mother who went to visit family in Kiev said there's a lot of ill feeling towards those who left the country and more so to those with boys who did. They are obliged to join the army at 18
They are not now planning to return when and if the war ends despite having a husband still living there
I think several million Ukranian refugees have now returned. An 18 year old is pretty certain to be drafted on return though, and it does look like fighting will drag on for some time.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
I’m now in the Saint-Malo apartment I’ve rented for the next three nights before I return home, and I think it’s the best one I’ve had yet. I’m on the top floor and have a nice big balcony. There’s a big TV, a decent stereo, really smart kitchen with a washing machine, a great shower and a comfy bed. The hosts have left me cider and beers in the fridge (that’s now a beer)
The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around
I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel
I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now
It can be nice in Northern France in May. Many moons ago I made the mistake of booking a hotel in Lille in August, coming up from the South, forgetting that cheap hotels in the north tend not to have aircon. An unpleasant two nights.
No, Nice is in Southern France whatever time of year it is.
Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Mega customer meeting this morning with vast prospects for fame and fortune. Spent the afternoon holed in an airport hotel bar writing things up and getting various processes (10 impossible things to do before Breakfast) underway.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
I think you'll find that London City Airport offers all those options - and the three combined for the adventurous.
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.
Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?
I was referring to when they were last in power. This has been an increasingly annoying issue ever since the start of this century. I don't immediately remember Major or those before him being rebuked for this so regularly.
I don't remember it being an issue with the last Labour government but I bow to your better memory.
Is it a feature of the modern comms, the internet etc? There's a bit of me that thinks, so what if a press briefing is given before the HoC?
I don't think you can get away with that exuse when it is actively briefed to a broadsheet newspaper. It isn't as if the Telegraph got hold of he information informally and then published it. And it has been made clear for years that Government business involving changes to the law should always be announced first in Parliament and not to the media since it is Parliament that will make the actual decision.
My brother who has just visited from his home in Amsterdam has a Ukrainian Mother and son living with him and his family. They've been living with them for over a year and now the son has reached 18 he's unable to return without being arrested and having his passport confiscated.
His mother who went to visit family in Kiev said there's a lot of ill feeling towards those who left the country and more so to those with boys who did. They are obliged to join the army at 18
They are not now planning to return when and if the war ends despite having a husband still living there
I think several million Ukranian refugees have now returned. An 18 year old is pretty certain to be drafted on return though, and it does look like fighting will drag on for some time.
I'm slightly surprised. If all 18 year old men are drafted into the armed forces that is about 240,000 per year by my calculation. How many soldiers do they need? Given they already had several hundred thousand* in the army including reserves, plus a willingness of many to sign up (including women) I wouldn't have thought they would need to resort to this. And I'm slightly puzzled at the idea he would be arrested. For what?
Earnings rising by 7% a year whilst house prices forecast to fall 5 or maybe 10%. If earnings rise 4-5% for another five years and house prices remain stable the ratio of prices to earnings* would go from 9:1 to about 6.5:1 - which I could live with.
Earnings rising by 7% a year whilst house prices forecast to fall 5 or maybe 10%. If earnings rise 4-5% for another five years and house prices remain stable the ratio of prices to earnings* would go from 9:1 to about 6.5:1 - which I could live with.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image
I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.
The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.
Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image
I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.
The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.
Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image
I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.
The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.
What is wrong with cleaning loos?
Nothing, but they have slightly less responsibility than the governor of the BoE.
Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image
I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.
The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery. ..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ? (I think we can rule out simony.)
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now
Well she is. So that will be a correct impression.
Boris Johnson felt so betrayed by Rishi Sunak’s resignation that he considered sending him a video calling him a four-letter word, his former director of communications has claimed.
Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, precipitated the end of Johnson’s government after resigning last summer.
Guto Harri, Johnson’s former director of communications, said on his new podcast, Unprecedented: “Rishi walked out. Didn’t even tell Boris he was going to go. Basically, he went public with a resignation. And a few days later, Boris found a little video on the internet that expressed what he wanted to say to Rishi. He didn’t send it, but he sent it to me and said, ‘thinking of sending this to Rishi’.
“Video plays: ‘you’re a c***.’ So, there you have it. If you really want to know how Boris Johnson felt about Rishi Sunak in the immediate aftermath of his toppling and the great betrayal of all time as he sees it, there you have it.”
Harri also claimed that Johnson described Sue Gray’s investigation into the Downing Street parties scandal as an “orgy of pain, abuse and humiliation”.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image
I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.
The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.
Can’t remember which of the numerous PB name droppers frequently mentioned their acquaintance with Bailey, but they certainly stopped referring to it quite a while back.
Boris Johnson felt so betrayed by Rishi Sunak’s resignation that he considered sending him a video calling him a four-letter word, his former director of communications has claimed.
Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, precipitated the end of Johnson’s government after resigning last summer.
Guto Harri, Johnson’s former director of communications, said on his new podcast, Unprecedented: “Rishi walked out. Didn’t even tell Boris he was going to go. Basically, he went public with a resignation. And a few days later, Boris found a little video on the internet that expressed what he wanted to say to Rishi. He didn’t send it, but he sent it to me and said, ‘thinking of sending this to Rishi’.
“Video plays: ‘you’re a c***.’ So, there you have it. If you really want to know how Boris Johnson felt about Rishi Sunak in the immediate aftermath of his toppling and the great betrayal of all time as he sees it, there you have it.”
Harri also claimed that Johnson described Sue Gray’s investigation into the Downing Street parties scandal as an “orgy of pain, abuse and humiliation”.
Boris Johnson felt so betrayed by Rishi Sunak’s resignation that he considered sending him a video calling him a four-letter word, his former director of communications has claimed.
Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, precipitated the end of Johnson’s government after resigning last summer.
Guto Harri, Johnson’s former director of communications, said on his new podcast, Unprecedented: “Rishi walked out. Didn’t even tell Boris he was going to go. Basically, he went public with a resignation. And a few days later, Boris found a little video on the internet that expressed what he wanted to say to Rishi. He didn’t send it, but he sent it to me and said, ‘thinking of sending this to Rishi’.
“Video plays: ‘you’re a c***.’ So, there you have it. If you really want to know how Boris Johnson felt about Rishi Sunak in the immediate aftermath of his toppling and the great betrayal of all time as he sees it, there you have it.”
Harri also claimed that Johnson described Sue Gray’s investigation into the Downing Street parties scandal as an “orgy of pain, abuse and humiliation”.
Does anyone have confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England? There's something of the Boris Johnson about him and the chancellor who looks like he's got a poker up his bum doesn't improve the image
I've always thought he was a roaster during his stint at the FCA.
The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.
Can’t remember which of the numerous PB name droppers frequently mentioned their acquaintance with Bailey, but they certainly stopped referring to it quite a while back.
Fun fact.
I was once contacted by a headhunter to go and work for Andrew Bailey.
I said no because I really shouldn't have a public facing role because of my colourful metaphors poachers shouldn't become gamekeepers.
Ian Martin on Ch4 News now virtually admitting that Brexit -which he supported -has turned out 'a huge mess'. Considering he was the guest speaking up for Brexit viewers will conclude it's turned out more of a disaster than their worst fears.
'Both sides lied their socks off' didn't help either. God help us! If that doesn't encourage SKS to stop bifucating on the fence nothing will
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Earnings rising by 7% a year whilst house prices forecast to fall 5 or maybe 10%. If earnings rise 4-5% for another five years and house prices remain stable the ratio of prices to earnings* would go from 9:1 to about 6.5:1 - which I could live with.
Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because: (a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small (b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany (c) something else. (What?)
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
"...if he had managed..."
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?
Comments
Troll
Russian troll
Sunak waving a flag like a performing seal all evening has arrested the slide.
Centrists (the sort who might support Tugendhat) might struggle with the first, whereas the harder right (more Redwall-y?) may fail to hold their seats.
It's easy to see one of the final two being a pragmatic mainstream right-winger, like Barclay. As things stand, the harder right feel like favourites for the second spot, with the wets missing out.
Sadly the airport is Luton, and my flight home is delayed by 80 minutes. Airports need to offer more pre-flight entertainment. Brothel perhaps? Gay sauna? Casino? Basically various ways to float your boat whilst you wait in the purgatory that is airport.
Imagine (or rather, don't) if Transpennine tried to do that.
The view from the balcony isn’t great, just the other side of the street, but the location is great. I’m right near the dockside (and I don’t think ANY of those jokes are funny now) and five minutes walk from the beach. There are loads of restaurants and shops around
I was going to walk back to the cathedral once I’d got here, but I really can’t be bothered to this evening - I’ve got three days here to do that and more exploring. Oh, and to have a bus ride to Mont-Saint-Michel
I think I’ll go to the nearest supermarket, get some grub and a bottle of wine, and enjoy some relaxation - I reckon I’ve earnt that now
“I was just sitting on my little stool and I noticed there was some yelling and then some police swooped in and were pushing the crowd back,” she told i.
“I must have been right on the edge of that, I went to get up and two police officers just grabbed me and handcuffed me. I don’t think they said anything, I think they arrested me before they asked a question.
“I feel like once I was in the system they didn’t listen, I tried to explain that I wasn’t part of the group.”
https://apple.news/AkaYHB7fISb-wTjPltQJnsg
What a shower of shite. It’s outrageous.
I think we'd all find each other interesting at times, and dull at other times, and we all have a bit of barking in us somewhere.
Is it a feature of the modern comms, the internet etc? There's a bit of me that thinks, so what if a press briefing is given before the HoC?
The reason Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t want the UK to host Eurovision
The Ukrainian leader says nations such as Slovakia or Poland would have been his preference for staging Saturday’s ceremony
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/11/zelensky-eurovision-hosting-nation-uk/
But you didn't mention biting before. I think they charge extra if you want to do that.
What a hero, what a true friend.
Don’t tell him, Pike.
Pike.
Remains to be seen what happens this year.
His mother who went to visit family in Kiev said there's a lot of ill feeling towards those who left the country and more so to those with boys who did. They are obliged to join the army at 18
They are not now planning to return when and if the war ends despite having a husband still living there
Might get more support for their team.
Was a clever wheeze by the Lib-Con coalition to lock the CCF out of power. Was successful. To the extent that the SoCreds won and then ruled for decades.
I am sure we will both take that
*Yes I know there have been plenty of casualties.
Earnings rising by 7% a year whilst house prices forecast to fall 5 or maybe 10%. If earnings rise 4-5% for another five years and house prices remain stable the ratio of prices to earnings* would go from 9:1 to about 6.5:1 - which I could live with.
*back of cigarette packet calculation.
The man who oversaw the LCF disaster should be cleaning toilets at St Pancras station, not the the Governor of the Bank of the England.
Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, precipitated the end of Johnson’s government after resigning last summer.
Guto Harri, Johnson’s former director of communications, said on his new podcast, Unprecedented: “Rishi walked out. Didn’t even tell Boris he was going to go. Basically, he went public with a resignation. And a few days later, Boris found a little video on the internet that expressed what he wanted to say to Rishi. He didn’t send it, but he sent it to me and said, ‘thinking of sending this to Rishi’.
“Video plays: ‘you’re a c***.’ So, there you have it. If you really want to know how Boris Johnson felt about Rishi Sunak in the immediate aftermath of his toppling and the great betrayal of all time as he sees it, there you have it.”
Harri also claimed that Johnson described Sue Gray’s investigation into the Downing Street parties scandal as an “orgy of pain, abuse and humiliation”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnson-considered-sending-sunak-a-video-calling-him-a-c-hmlm38qk5
OK to put that down for my appraisal?
I was once contacted by a headhunter to go and work for Andrew Bailey.
I said no because
I really shouldn't have a public facing role because of my colourful metaphorspoachers shouldn't become gamekeepers.'Both sides lied their socks off' didn't help either. God help us! If that doesn't encourage SKS to stop bifucating on the fence nothing will
Sadly, no pun in ten did.