The Archbishop’s attack on the small boats plan makes several front pages – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.

https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350

You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...

I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)

That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt now

Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?

Steve Barclay

I for one am delighted Kemi is showing common sense and if she has upset Mogg good on her

The ERG need putting in their box

That will only happen when moderates like you vote against the Tory party. Til then they have licence to do what they're doing.

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

Cincinnati? All I remember is the brown and beige airport.

Dialup said:

A great pleasure to be on the completely barking list.

Although my therapist says I am normal.

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged)
Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged)
Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Nigel_Foremain said:

Dialup said:

A great pleasure to be on the completely barking list.

Although my therapist says I am normal.

I'd be very disappointed if I were ever described as such.

Mexicanpete said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

So in which category do we put Leon?

Nigel_Foremain said:

Dialup said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Dialup said:

Let us be honest now.

If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.

One thing is for sure, whenever Labour are in power it is generally a bad day for the economy

Ever day for the economy has been bad for the last 13 years.

I think you will find that is not necessarily true. The economy recovered quite well after Labour left (the old "there is no money left" moment). It obviously did badly during the pandemic, like the rest of the world, and now it is doing OK according to the independent bank of England.

I was obviously being facetious anyway. There have been the odd day when the economy has done well under Labour.

Sadly that isn't likely to happen under Kier, because unlike the Blair government, none of his front bench has any understanding of business. They are just into hosing money at the public sector which they will attempt to do until they have an inevitable Liz Truss moment.

Benpointer said:

I woke up this morning with an absolutely insanely good idea for a smartphone app.

Rolled over for another 15 mins snooze and forgot it. Now I can only remember I had an idea, not what it was.

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged)
Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

Carnyx said:

Dialup said:

We must get houses being built. Overhaul planning.

And allow phone masts to be built anywhere. Rejections should be made illegal.

*campaigns to put phone masts in Dialup's garden, stopping anyone from getting out of the kitchen door*

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

couldn't even make it onto a list

OGH
TSE
Benpointer and, er...
Farooq

It'd be gauche for me to judge myself

Nigel_Foremain said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

I'm disappointed you've got me down as only a "bit" unhinged

I beat you then, I am 'completely barking' apparently

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Farooq said:

Dialup said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

couldn't even make it onto a list

OGH
TSE
Benpointer and, er...
Farooq

It'd be gauche for me to judge myself

You’re a crazy mother fucker

I think I need to hear that from someone on one of the other lists

Farooq said:

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

Now that’s what I call a bollocking….

Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch

https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/1656684232423399424

Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasigly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they wshould be briefing MPs first.

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

Now that’s what I call a bollocking….

Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch

https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/1656684232423399424

Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.

Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?

kjh said:

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged)
Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.

Of course you got black flagged. We wouldn't expect anything less. But did you come in or just ignore it?

MoonRabbit said:

Dialup said:

I think I’m totally normal. I post fantastic opinions and I have great banter. Everyone else is an idiot

You still sound a lot more like Leon impersonating his old friend Horse. Can you explain this?

BlancheLivermore said:

Dialup said:

Blanche would have Horse on his own list. They are obsessed with him

Jesus Chbrist! You’re the one who exactly copies his posting style

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

couldn't even make it onto a list

OGH
TSE
Benpointer and, er...
Farooq

Nigel_Foremain said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Dialup said:

Blanche would have Horse on his own list. They are obsessed with him

Jesus Chbrist! You’re the one who exactly copies his posting style

I miss Horse even though he was of different political views to me. He needs to make a reappearance. His banning must be over by now shirley?

Farooq said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category

It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.

That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.

You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?

You want credit for being a "loan voice"?

Farooq said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

@leon clearly off the scale. Disappointed to have only made the "bit unhinged" category

It's a weighted average though (isn't it Farooq?). If we just go on your 'Scottish Nationalism' output you'd be in 'completely barking' quite easily.

That is just having clear vision @kinabalu. I am happy being a loan voice in my warnings about the risks of parochial nationalism. I used to get shot down for my views on Russian interference in our democracy. If you think it is "completely barking" then I will accept the accolade. I don't expect you to share a view that is anything other than the conventional.

You did not get a mention in the top category? Did @Farooq have a special circle of hell for people trained in Chartered Accountancy?

You want credit for being a "loan voice"?

Dura_Ace said:

Farooq said:

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

I am a bit salty at getting lumped in with that shower of shit. HYUFD excepted.

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?


Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?

THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"

HELP

NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged)
Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Andy_JS said:

Another bad poll for the Tories.

"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 46% (+2)
CON: 30% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
REF: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

via @Savanta_UK, 05 - 07 May"

The long heralded Tory recovery continues. How could we have ever doubted it?

Dura_Ace said:

Farooq said:

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

I am a bit salty at getting lumped in with that shower of shit. HYUFD excepted.

Andy_JS said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Thanks for putting me in the possibly sane category. Maybe it's my support for proportional representation that did it. 😊

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Andy_JS said:

Another bad poll for the Tories.

"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 46% (+2)
CON: 30% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
REF: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

via @Savanta_UK, 05 - 07 May"

The long heralded Tory recovery continues. How could we have ever doubted it?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Andy_JS said:

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.

If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.

Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.

The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.

Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.

I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.

Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.

On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.

Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.

But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.

is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)

An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.

I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.

Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.

I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.

Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.

Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.

So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.

If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.

But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.

Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.

No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.

The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.

"...if he had managed..."

But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.

We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.

Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?

Here's Topping's 'sane' list:

1. Topping

A lot of uncertainty here

solid (or dull!)
Big_G_NorthWales
Sean_F
eek
algakirk
OldKingCole
williamglenn
Nigelb
OnlyLivingBoy

possibly sane
TOPPING
kinabalu
Andy_JS
kle
JosiasJessop
Foxy
Richard_Tyndall
rcs1000

definitely a bit unhinged
Nigel_Foremain
Sunil_Prasannan
BlancheLivermore
viewcode
bigjohnowls

completely barking
MoonRabbit
Dura_Ace
CarlottaVance
Casino_Royale
HYUFD
Dialup

Thanks for putting me in the possibly sane category. Maybe it's my support for proportional representation that did it. 😊

I feel that 'possibly sane' is the sweet spot. I'm boring apparently - obviously need to upgrade the saltiness of my posts.