The Archbishop’s attack on the small boats plan makes several front pages – politicalbetting.com
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Dunno. But as it stands it'll surely be Kemi vs Penny. I really can't see anyone else in the frame at the moment.kinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)0 -
It is very worrying indeed. I am no Biden fan but would pick him every day of the week over Trump.Burgessian said:
Very good article that, BTW.Richard_Tyndall said:
Trump - like so many other demagogues - identified a genuine failing in the American economic and political system and set out to exploit it for his own ends. Just because he has been discredited in the eyes of most people doesn't mean the issues he sought to exploit have gone away. People are desperate and when he fails it is difficult for them to see whereelse they can turn. I think this applies to the majority of his support which has coalesced around a genuinely corrupt and self serving core both in the Republican party and the country as a whole.algarkirk said:
I would generally agree with this. It's the tens of millions of USA voters who don't that is troubling in the 1930s sort of sense. So it isn't 'fairly universal' at this moment.DavidL said:
The fairly universal ability to recognise a turd by its smell?algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
I wrote about this for PB back in January 2021
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/09/this-is-not-about-trump-except-of-course-it-is/
I saw some recent polling for Biden which was very concerning. His approval ratings are even worse than Carter and Ford's, who both went on to lose. The Return of Trump nightmare remains a very real possibility.
What the US (and the world) needs is both of them to fail to get the nomination and a pair of new, younger, candidates to be picked by the parties. Won't happen of course.
3 -
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.0 -
I wouldn't have a problem with either of them. Both miles better than any of the other likely prospects. As long as it isn't Braverman.Burgessian said:
Dunno. But as it stands it'll surely be Kemi vs Penny. I really can't see anyone else in the frame at the moment.kinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)0 -
Massive Imperialist, as well.JosiasJessop said:
But a plane story.Nigelb said:
Bit of a screw loose.JosiasJessop said:
If a ThomasTelford, GeorgeStephenson, RobertStevenson or JosephWhitworth appear on PB, it'd be pretty easy to see who they're sock puppets of mine...viewcode said:algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)- Numbers. We are in a fallow period and will remain so until Anglophone elections restart (locals don't count
), so we're not really focussed at the moment - Unrepresentativeness. PB commentators have a larger-than-usual contingent of the rich and retired, and they have more time to contribute. So the PB Overton window is shifted by them, and they tend to be anti-Trump.
- Banning. PB has an eclectic banning policy, and Trump fans can be collateral damage. In 2020 I ran a POTUS game with one PBer (@RichardNabavi? @NPXMP?) speaking for Biden and another (@MrEd) speaking for Trump. @MrEd is now banned for other reasons.
Ah, old Joey Whitworth. An amazing man and story.
Shouldn’t he be cancelled for that?
0 - Numbers. We are in a fallow period and will remain so until Anglophone elections restart (locals don't count
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The issue is Kemi is the person who has announced the plan has been abandoned and she is the person JRG and his band of Muppets is currently attacking.Northern_Al said:
Far be it from me to defend Kemi, but wasn't it Sunak who pledged to repeal all EU laws within a year as part of his leadership pitch? Who's in charge?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)0 -
I always suspected Badenoch had some latent competence that she has kept well hidden*. Seems she's let the cat out of the bag.kinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
* Penny Mordaunt OTOH hasn't been hiding competence.0 -
Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/0 -
The French made a version for UAE's Mirages (which also had its range hobbled), and there was some talk of those going to Ukraine - which now seems a bit unlikely.JosiasJessop said:
Integration with Ukrainian airframes will be interesting. Although from past experience, some will be saying how impossible it is, just as Ukraine do it (the HARM missile).Nigelb said:
Interesting timing, just ahead of the predicted offensive.AlistairM said:StormShadow confirmed for Ukraine. Up to 300km range...
It might be very useful indeed to target the ammunition dumps the Russians have pulled back outside the range of HIMARs - the threat alone will complicate their logistics.
And given the F35 won't be able to carry it, we were going to have some spares on the shelf, as the Typhoon fleet declines in numbers.
So you don't need a particularly sophisticated airframe.
Another motive for getting shut of some - they cost a fair amount to maintain:
...French aircraft fired 12 SCALP missiles at ISIS targets in Syria as part of Operation Chammal. These launches took place on 15 December 2015 and 2 January 2016. It is thought that these firings may have been approved after a decision by the French MOD to reduce their inventory of SCALP missiles to reduce costs...0 -
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.1 -
I would have thought it was possible to implement a delay for all payments redirected via the account switching process.TheScreamingEagles said:
It depends on the circumstances.Sandpit said:
Okay. You work for a bank. If my granny sends a bunch of money to an account at your bank, why can you not immediately associate an individual with that account, given that my granny had to jump through a thousand hoops to keep her own account open?TheScreamingEagles said:
They do.JosiasJessop said:
Banks should be made to report the amount of money they're spending paying back victims of fraud, and the amount of fraud they believe has occurred within, from and to their accounts.Sandpit said:
Watching from afar, there seems to be a massive disconnect between the banks insisting on multiple levels of KYC for normal customers, yet having no idea where the money went when a customer complains of being scammed with a domestic transfer.Nigel_Foremain said:
Someone on here tried to claim to me that fraud in the UK was not endemic. It may not be endemic in the literal sense but it is widespread, constantly present and highly damaging. I saw a report on BBC this morning to say there have been over 3 million cases of fraud (I assume in last year).Andy_JS said:Scam phone call watch. Just got a call from this number on a landline.
https://who-calls.me.uk/phone/01135139666
One of the comments:
"Offering a free medical device to all 'elderly' people over the age of 50. Claimed to be based in London, calling from a Leeds area code. Clearly using a call router and dodgy af."
The banks need to recognise that it is far too easy to con people into transferring their money. The only solution I can think of is for the banking system to at least hold transferred monies for 48 hours before it appears in another overseas account enabling a customer to realise they have been conned.
https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/system/files/Fraud The Facts 2021- FINAL.pdf
Usually it is straight forward but there may be a kink somewhere.
Such as a redirect on the account during the account switching process.
But that was before I had a close look at one of the UK bank's IT infrastructure. Shall we just say there are firms in Bulgaria that I used to work with that I would trust rather more...1 -
If there were no monarchist commentators on there as well they were right to complainTheScreamingEagles said:Why are monarchists such snowflakes?
Australian monarchists have demanded that the state broadcaster apologise for its coverage of the coronation, during which its Aboriginal host suggested that British royalty had left “scars”.
The Australian Monarchist League (AML) launched a petition for an apology from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) for its “biased” coverage. The league also demanded an independent inquiry into the broadcaster’s “hijacking” of the historic occasion.
The league’s chairman, Philip Benwell, urged supporters to complain, saying that there had been “vitriolic attacks on the King, the monarchy, the British settlement and everything that came thereafter”.
The state-funded broadcaster was criticised after it aired a 45-minute discussion prior to the ceremony which featured a panel dominated by pro-republic figures — including the ABC’s leading Aboriginal host, Stan Grant, who spoke about colonisation and the damage the monarchy had inflicted on indigenous Australians.
“Before we get to the fantasy Australia, the Disneyland Australia, let’s deal with the real Australia,” Grant said in the broadcast. “Let’s not imagine that we can just look at this ceremony tonight and see this as something that is distant, that is just ceremonial and doesn’t hold weight.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australias-state-broadcaster-accused-of-vitriolic-attacks-on-the-king-sgn72wcp90 -
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)2 -
@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.1 -
Her department - and the Brexit weirdo crew never trusted Sunak anyway (for whatever reason). Now they don't trust her either.Northern_Al said:
Far be it from me to defend Kemi, but wasn't it Sunak who pledged to repeal all EU laws within a year as part of his leadership pitch? Who's in charge?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)0 -
Edit: deleted this comment. Check the hidden replies under the tweet if you like.BlancheLivermore said:Did anyone see this yet?
@CatNeilan
Exclusive: A Labour MP claims she was sexually assaulted by a shadow minister
https://t.co/vRdOP1AzQl
https://twitter.com/catneilan/status/1656604145640517632?s=46&t=2PLdUFiRAxUnHhl4l_sZDQ0 -
I for one am delighted Kemi is showing common sense and if she has upset Mogg good on herHYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
The ERG need putting in their box1 -
Next thing you'll be telling us that he has a deep and meaningful belief in the sanctity of human life.TOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.1 -
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/4 -
Since he's currently advocating a US debt shutdown*, his concern for anyone else's economic wellbeing, other than his own, is zero.TOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.
FWIW, he's always struck me as one of those sociopaths who derives satisfaction from gaining the adulation of those he's screwing over.
*
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/10/trump-once-more-refuses-to-admit-election-defeat-00096352
..When Collins noted that Trump had said that as president it was wrong for Democrats to use the prospect of default as a negotiating tactic, he responded that he had said that “when I was president.”
“So why is it different now?” Collins asked. “Because I’m not president,” Trump shot back...
0 -
I see Saint-Malo!
Nearly there..
4 -
Turkish presidential candidate quits race after release of alleged sex tape
Muharrem İnce pulls out just days from close election race saying alleged sex tape is deepfake
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/muharrem-ince-turkish-presidential-candidate-withdraws-alleged-sex-tape0 -
One of the forgotten facts of 2015-2016 was that Trump's box office power as an entertainer was great for the news networks. They have a symbiotic relationship with him.Nigelb said:CNN Failed America With Its Train Wreck of a Trump Town Hall
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-failed-america-with-its-trainwreck-of-a-trump-town-hall
...Halfway through the town hall, CNN staffers were acknowledging the event was a disaster for the truth.
“This is so bad,” one of CNN’s on-air personalities told The Daily Beast before the first commercial break. "I was cautiously optimistic despite the criticism... it is awful. It’s a Trump infomercial. We’re going to get crushed.”
“One of the worst hours I’ve ever seen on our air,” another CNN staffer told The Daily Beast.
And yet another on-air commentator for CNN was clear this wasn’t a good night for the cable news channel. “I’m floored by this whole evening,” this person said..
It was utterly predictable, and CNN are idiots.1 -
To my shame I have been silent on the war in the Sudan. Could you let me know which of the warlords I am tacitly condoning by this negligent inaction?TheScreamingEagles said:
They have The Met to defend them, who use bad methods to silence pro-democracy supporters.algarkirk said:
Can I just give a wave for all the other monarchists who are not snowflakes (and not fanatics either) and are unfazed by freedom of speech and opinion. And who notice that everyone is free to attack the monarchy but on the whole the monarchy is not so free to defend itself.TheScreamingEagles said:Why are monarchists such snowflakes?
Australian monarchists have demanded that the state broadcaster apologise for its coverage of the coronation, during which its Aboriginal host suggested that British royalty had left “scars”.
The Australian Monarchist League (AML) launched a petition for an apology from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) for its “biased” coverage. The league also demanded an independent inquiry into the broadcaster’s “hijacking” of the historic occasion.
The league’s chairman, Philip Benwell, urged supporters to complain, saying that there had been “vitriolic attacks on the King, the monarchy, the British settlement and everything that came thereafter”.
The state-funded broadcaster was criticised after it aired a 45-minute discussion prior to the ceremony which featured a panel dominated by pro-republic figures — including the ABC’s leading Aboriginal host, Stan Grant, who spoke about colonisation and the damage the monarchy had inflicted on indigenous Australians.
“Before we get to the fantasy Australia, the Disneyland Australia, let’s deal with the real Australia,” Grant said in the broadcast. “Let’s not imagine that we can just look at this ceremony tonight and see this as something that is distant, that is just ceremonial and doesn’t hold weight.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australias-state-broadcaster-accused-of-vitriolic-attacks-on-the-king-sgn72wcp9
Charles Windsor has not condemned the Met's action, his silence is tacit condoning of the arrests.1 -
Shadow transport minister Louise Haig
@LouHaigh
telling #SkyNews emphatically that Labour WILL bring all railway services back into public ownership.
@Keir_Starmer
a few days ago said it was unaffordable and would NOT happen.
Does the Labour Party know what it’s talking about?0 -
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.0 -
Wasn’t me guv! Wouldn’t touch the stuff.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/0 -
He is sorting the War out in one dayrcs1000 said:
Next thing you'll be telling us that he has a deep and meaningful belief in the sanctity of human life.TOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.
Sounds good
and believable!!0 -
If it’s deepfake, why pull out?Nigelb said:Turkish presidential candidate quits race after release of alleged sex tape
Muharrem İnce pulls out just days from close election race saying alleged sex tape is deepfake
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/muharrem-ince-turkish-presidential-candidate-withdraws-alleged-sex-tape
No double entendre intended. Honest.0 -
Moreso than Tony Blair or Pol Pot you mean?rcs1000 said:
Next thing you'll be telling us that he has a deep and meaningful belief in the sanctity of human life.TOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.1 -
1) NoTOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.
2) If you are a proper solipsist there isn't a world to save
(this is problematic for solipsistic narcissists with a messiah complex)
3) Did he by any chance make the trains run on time?1 -
They certainly haven't forgotten.williamglenn said:
One of the forgotten facts of 2015-2016 was that Trump's box office power as an entertainer was great for the news networks. They have a symbiotic relationship with him.Nigelb said:CNN Failed America With Its Train Wreck of a Trump Town Hall
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-failed-america-with-its-trainwreck-of-a-trump-town-hall
...Halfway through the town hall, CNN staffers were acknowledging the event was a disaster for the truth.
“This is so bad,” one of CNN’s on-air personalities told The Daily Beast before the first commercial break. "I was cautiously optimistic despite the criticism... it is awful. It’s a Trump infomercial. We’re going to get crushed.”
“One of the worst hours I’ve ever seen on our air,” another CNN staffer told The Daily Beast.
And yet another on-air commentator for CNN was clear this wasn’t a good night for the cable news channel. “I’m floored by this whole evening,” this person said..
It was utterly predictable, and CNN are idiots.
CNN's decision to hold this for Trump's benefit so that he could repeat his lies in prime time, in front of a friendly audience, was entirely cynical.
Their CEO congratulated himself on "making news".0 -
It all looks fantastic but do I have this right that your day job consists of miles and miles of walking and you have gone on a holiday which consists of, er, miles and miles of walking?BlancheLivermore said:I see Saint-Malo!
Nearly there..
Did I miss the reason for this although there doesn't need to be any kind of reason with some of the amazing sights you've posted here.1 -
The Mirage 2000 Diesel is a very sophisticated aircraft with glass cockpit, HOTAS, FLIR, multi mode radar, etc. The Fencer (proposed UAF Storm Shadow platform) is junk in comparison but all it has to do is not get shot down long enough to get a launch.Nigelb said:
The French made a version for UAE's Mirages (which also had its range hobbled), and there was some talk of those going to Ukraine - which now seems a bit unlikely.JosiasJessop said:
Integration with Ukrainian airframes will be interesting. Although from past experience, some will be saying how impossible it is, just as Ukraine do it (the HARM missile).Nigelb said:
Interesting timing, just ahead of the predicted offensive.AlistairM said:StormShadow confirmed for Ukraine. Up to 300km range...
It might be very useful indeed to target the ammunition dumps the Russians have pulled back outside the range of HIMARs - the threat alone will complicate their logistics.
And given the F35 won't be able to carry it, we were going to have some spares on the shelf, as the Typhoon fleet declines in numbers.
So you don't need a particularly sophisticated airframe.
Recall, that despite the excitement over HARM, only one UAF Fulcrum (Blue 12, their only MU2 upgraded a/c) was capable of an AGM-88 launch and the only documented thing they ever hit with it was a block of flats in Kramatorsk by accident. The breathless trumpeting of the latest NATO wonder weapons is as much about propaganda and morale as it is about any actual or expected military effect.
The Russians do this all the time with Kinzhal, Sarmat, etc. for much the same reasons and it is as enthusiastically slurped up. #winninghere #overbychristmas #wheresthef16s0 -
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.kinabalu said:
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
Because Ince wasn't going to win and the 2-3% of support he had will go to KılıçdaroğluMoonRabbit said:
If it’s deepfake, why pull out?Nigelb said:Turkish presidential candidate quits race after release of alleged sex tape
Muharrem İnce pulls out just days from close election race saying alleged sex tape is deepfake
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/muharrem-ince-turkish-presidential-candidate-withdraws-alleged-sex-tape
No double entendre intended. Honest.
Which means Kılıçdaroğlu now has a chance of hitting 51% in the first round - from reading round the biggest worry the opposition had was that it went to a second round of voting where Erdogan could try and pull tricks.0 -
If ever a contest demanded to be decided by ordeal by combat it is this.Burgessian said:
Dunno. But as it stands it'll surely be Kemi vs Penny. I really can't see anyone else in the frame at the moment.kinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
0 -
SSI was quite right to castigate those Democrats who claim to want a Trump candidacy because it will mean an easy win.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is very worrying indeed. I am no Biden fan but would pick him every day of the week over Trump.Burgessian said:
Very good article that, BTW.Richard_Tyndall said:
Trump - like so many other demagogues - identified a genuine failing in the American economic and political system and set out to exploit it for his own ends. Just because he has been discredited in the eyes of most people doesn't mean the issues he sought to exploit have gone away. People are desperate and when he fails it is difficult for them to see whereelse they can turn. I think this applies to the majority of his support which has coalesced around a genuinely corrupt and self serving core both in the Republican party and the country as a whole.algarkirk said:
I would generally agree with this. It's the tens of millions of USA voters who don't that is troubling in the 1930s sort of sense. So it isn't 'fairly universal' at this moment.DavidL said:
The fairly universal ability to recognise a turd by its smell?algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
I wrote about this for PB back in January 2021
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/09/this-is-not-about-trump-except-of-course-it-is/
I saw some recent polling for Biden which was very concerning. His approval ratings are even worse than Carter and Ford's, who both went on to lose. The Return of Trump nightmare remains a very real possibility.
What the US (and the world) needs is both of them to fail to get the nomination and a pair of new, younger, candidates to be picked by the parties. Won't happen of course.
In a close, two-horse race, he is one Biden mishap away from winning.3 -
Because in middle america it's the best of a few far worse options?Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
I did spend a lot of time considering that question and I am afraid that - whilst I never believe things are as black and white as they are painted - I did come to the conclusion that Trump really didn't and doesn't give a Monkey's about the fate of the US Working and Middle classes. Their problems were a means to an end for him, nothing more. He would attempt to solve their problems where that improved his chances of re-election but so much of what he did was really just lip service.TOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.
Now I know I can't prove this. It is really nothing more than a gut feeling based on my own personal biases and my observations. But I think that it is a reasonable view to adopt - at least in the absence of any evidence to the contrary.2 -
Pretty much on the money, though I’d move one of your “miles” from work to holiday!TOPPING said:
It all looks fantastic but do I have this right that your day job consists of miles and miles of walking and you have gone on a holiday which consists of, er, miles and miles of walking?BlancheLivermore said:I see Saint-Malo!
Nearly there..
Did I miss the reason for this although there doesn't need to be any kind of reason with some of the amazing sights you've posted here.
I might be something of a mad masochist..1 -
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election1 -
I'll treat that story with the same skepticism I did your claim about the share price 'crashing'Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
0 -
Oh, and I’ve just checked and have now passed a million steps in nineteen days!BlancheLivermore said:
Pretty much on the money, though I’d move one of your “miles” from work to holiday!TOPPING said:
It all looks fantastic but do I have this right that your day job consists of miles and miles of walking and you have gone on a holiday which consists of, er, miles and miles of walking?BlancheLivermore said:I see Saint-Malo!
Nearly there..
Did I miss the reason for this although there doesn't need to be any kind of reason with some of the amazing sights you've posted here.
I might be something of a mad masochist..
7 -
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.HYUFD said:
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election1 -
"Diesel"? Was that an autocorrect for "Dassault"?Dura_Ace said:
The Mirage 2000 Diesel is a very sophisticated aircraft with glass cockpit, HOTAS, FLIR, multi mode radar, etc. The Fencer (proposed UAF Storm Shadow platform) is junk in comparison but all it has to do is not get shot down long enough to get a launch.Nigelb said:
The French made a version for UAE's Mirages (which also had its range hobbled), and there was some talk of those going to Ukraine - which now seems a bit unlikely.JosiasJessop said:
Integration with Ukrainian airframes will be interesting. Although from past experience, some will be saying how impossible it is, just as Ukraine do it (the HARM missile).Nigelb said:
Interesting timing, just ahead of the predicted offensive.AlistairM said:StormShadow confirmed for Ukraine. Up to 300km range...
It might be very useful indeed to target the ammunition dumps the Russians have pulled back outside the range of HIMARs - the threat alone will complicate their logistics.
And given the F35 won't be able to carry it, we were going to have some spares on the shelf, as the Typhoon fleet declines in numbers.
So you don't need a particularly sophisticated airframe.
Recall, that despite the excitement over HARM, only one UAF Fulcrum (Blue 12, their only MU2 upgraded a/c) was capable of an AGM-88 launch and the only documented thing they ever hit with it was a block of flats in Kramatorsk by accident. The breathless trumpeting of the latest NATO wonder weapons is as much about propaganda and morale as it is about any actual or expected military effect.
The Russians do this all the time with Kinzhal, Sarmat, etc. for much the same reasons and it is as enthusiastically slurped up. #winninghere #overbychristmas #wheresthef16s0 -
The worrying thing is that you can actually ask: "What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years"? and not have it seem a stupid, impossible scenario.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.kinabalu said:
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
Just the nickname for the 2000D.viewcode said:
"Diesel"? Was that an autocorrect for "Dassault"?Dura_Ace said:
The Mirage 2000 Diesel is a very sophisticated aircraft with glass cockpit, HOTAS, FLIR, multi mode radar, etc. The Fencer (proposed UAF Storm Shadow platform) is junk in comparison but all it has to do is not get shot down long enough to get a launch.Nigelb said:
The French made a version for UAE's Mirages (which also had its range hobbled), and there was some talk of those going to Ukraine - which now seems a bit unlikely.JosiasJessop said:
Integration with Ukrainian airframes will be interesting. Although from past experience, some will be saying how impossible it is, just as Ukraine do it (the HARM missile).Nigelb said:
Interesting timing, just ahead of the predicted offensive.AlistairM said:StormShadow confirmed for Ukraine. Up to 300km range...
It might be very useful indeed to target the ammunition dumps the Russians have pulled back outside the range of HIMARs - the threat alone will complicate their logistics.
And given the F35 won't be able to carry it, we were going to have some spares on the shelf, as the Typhoon fleet declines in numbers.
So you don't need a particularly sophisticated airframe.
Recall, that despite the excitement over HARM, only one UAF Fulcrum (Blue 12, their only MU2 upgraded a/c) was capable of an AGM-88 launch and the only documented thing they ever hit with it was a block of flats in Kramatorsk by accident. The breathless trumpeting of the latest NATO wonder weapons is as much about propaganda and morale as it is about any actual or expected military effect.
The Russians do this all the time with Kinzhal, Sarmat, etc. for much the same reasons and it is as enthusiastically slurped up. #winninghere #overbychristmas #wheresthef16s2 -
“ Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.”HYUFD said:
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
😂 that posts a keeper1 -
Not a military event with soldiers and tanks etc, an insidious, top to bottom corruption of politics and the judiciary. The chance that American democracy is debauched beyond recognition in that way by 4 more years of Trump? - greater than 50% imo.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.kinabalu said:
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.3 -
Yes, they rather created the monster, didn't they.williamglenn said:
One of the forgotten facts of 2015-2016 was that Trump's box office power as an entertainer was great for the news networks. They have a symbiotic relationship with him.Nigelb said:CNN Failed America With Its Train Wreck of a Trump Town Hall
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-failed-america-with-its-trainwreck-of-a-trump-town-hall
...Halfway through the town hall, CNN staffers were acknowledging the event was a disaster for the truth.
“This is so bad,” one of CNN’s on-air personalities told The Daily Beast before the first commercial break. "I was cautiously optimistic despite the criticism... it is awful. It’s a Trump infomercial. We’re going to get crushed.”
“One of the worst hours I’ve ever seen on our air,” another CNN staffer told The Daily Beast.
And yet another on-air commentator for CNN was clear this wasn’t a good night for the cable news channel. “I’m floored by this whole evening,” this person said..
It was utterly predictable, and CNN are idiots.0 -
Losing Brighton Green councillor:
She said: “I’ve had an incredible four years but I am absolutely heartbroken and in shock.
“It’s so f***ing cruel that I don’t get to continue on the incredible journey I was having.
“I gave it my everything and I’m not quite sure what is left of me with it stripped away.”
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23512635.former-green-brighton-councillor-shares-sorrow-election-loss/
While it’s tough losing elections (and mine was one of the votes she didn’t get) - a bit more about voters and a bit less about herself might be a missing element…4 -
How to get a third term must be vexing DJT. The bar for a constitutional amendment is almost impossibly high. Some SCOTUS shenanigans?kinabalu said:
Not a military event with soldiers and tanks etc, an insidious, top to bottom corruption of politics and the judiciary. The chance that American democracy is debauched beyond recognition in that way by 4 more years of Trump? - greater than 50% imo.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.kinabalu said:
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.Dura_Ace said:
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.HYUFD said:
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs0 -
Barclay is a Brexiteer who wants to beggar the public services. Makes Starmer look like Mr Charisma, but hits a sweet spot with the Tory punters.Dura_Ace said:
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.HYUFD said:
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election2 -
Sources, please.Dura_Ace said:
The Mirage 2000 Diesel is a very sophisticated aircraft with glass cockpit, HOTAS, FLIR, multi mode radar, etc. The Fencer (proposed UAF Storm Shadow platform) is junk in comparison but all it has to do is not get shot down long enough to get a launch.Nigelb said:
The French made a version for UAE's Mirages (which also had its range hobbled), and there was some talk of those going to Ukraine - which now seems a bit unlikely.JosiasJessop said:
Integration with Ukrainian airframes will be interesting. Although from past experience, some will be saying how impossible it is, just as Ukraine do it (the HARM missile).Nigelb said:
Interesting timing, just ahead of the predicted offensive.AlistairM said:StormShadow confirmed for Ukraine. Up to 300km range...
It might be very useful indeed to target the ammunition dumps the Russians have pulled back outside the range of HIMARs - the threat alone will complicate their logistics.
And given the F35 won't be able to carry it, we were going to have some spares on the shelf, as the Typhoon fleet declines in numbers.
So you don't need a particularly sophisticated airframe.
Recall, that despite the excitement over HARM, only one UAF Fulcrum (Blue 12, their only MU2 upgraded a/c) was capable of an AGM-88 launch and the only documented thing they ever hit with it was a block of flats in Kramatorsk by accident. The breathless trumpeting of the latest NATO wonder weapons is as much about propaganda and morale as it is about any actual or expected military effect.
The Russians do this all the time with Kinzhal, Sarmat, etc. for much the same reasons and it is as enthusiastically slurped up. #winninghere #overbychristmas #wheresthef16s 0 -
Which is a mystery, certainly.Farooq said:
The counterargument is, of course, its popularity.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
We have had some massively entertaining psychological meltdowns from a few regulars but the genuinely stricken don't tend to last very long.Farooq said:
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
He has contempt for his supporters. Like big time drug dealers do for the people who get hooked on their product. It's not dissimilar to that.Nigelb said:
Since he's currently advocating a US debt shutdown*, his concern for anyone else's economic wellbeing, other than his own, is zero.TOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.
FWIW, he's always struck me as one of those sociopaths who derives satisfaction from gaining the adulation of those he's screwing over.
*
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/10/trump-once-more-refuses-to-admit-election-defeat-00096352
..When Collins noted that Trump had said that as president it was wrong for Democrats to use the prospect of default as a negotiating tactic, he responded that he had said that “when I was president.”
“So why is it different now?” Collins asked. “Because I’m not president,” Trump shot back...1 -
Bud Light is to beer as Eurovision is to musicSean_F said:
Which is a mystery, certainly.Farooq said:
The counterargument is, of course, its popularity.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?3 -
Rejoice!
"Wind turbines have generated more electricity than gas for the first time in the UK.
In the first three months of this year a third of the country's electricity came from wind farms, research from Imperial College London have shown."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65557469
One thing the coalition and Conservative governments post-2010 need firm congratulation for.6 -
Maybe that's why she lost.CarlottaVance said:Losing Brighton Green councillor:
She said: “I’ve had an incredible four years but I am absolutely heartbroken and in shock.
“It’s so f***ing cruel that I don’t get to continue on the incredible journey I was having.
“I gave it my everything and I’m not quite sure what is left of me with it stripped away.”
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23512635.former-green-brighton-councillor-shares-sorrow-election-loss/
While it’s tough losing elections (and mine was one of the votes she didn’t get) - a bit more about voters and a bit less about herself might be a missing element…1 -
Or even České Budějovice.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
Or a puppet maybe, like Putin arranged for his interregnum.Dura_Ace said:
How to get a third term must be vexing DJT. The bar for a constitutional amendment is almost impossibly high. Some SCOTUS shenanigans?kinabalu said:
Not a military event with soldiers and tanks etc, an insidious, top to bottom corruption of politics and the judiciary. The chance that American democracy is debauched beyond recognition in that way by 4 more years of Trump? - greater than 50% imo.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.kinabalu said:
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
But, look, I mustn't let you drag me into this bleakness - cos he won't get that 2nd term! And no 2nd no 3rd.2 -
Do you have to be experienced in goblin a goblin to know the taste of Goblin cum? That said, it Goblin semen tastes as bad as Budweisser then in must be bad.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
Now that’s what I call a bollocking….
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch
https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/16566842324233994241 -
It is to beer what KFC is to fine diningBlancheLivermore said:
Bud Light is to beer as Eurovision is to musicSean_F said:
Which is a mystery, certainly.Farooq said:
The counterargument is, of course, its popularity.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
Seemed a bit contrived and silly to me. I normally like him but he would be best to show a little more humility before he starts seeming like his predecessorCarlottaVance said:Now that’s what I call a bollocking….
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch
https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/16566842324233994240 -
Who, though? He certainly doesn't trust anyone and he doesn’t appear to like anyone. The only one I could see is Ivanka but she has quit MAGAworld. I don't think he'd give DJTJ a job licking stamps. Eric, LOL.kinabalu said:
Or a puppet maybe, like Putin arranged for his interregnum.Dura_Ace said:
How to get a third term must be vexing DJT. The bar for a constitutional amendment is almost impossibly high. Some SCOTUS shenanigans?kinabalu said:
Not a military event with soldiers and tanks etc, an insidious, top to bottom corruption of politics and the judiciary. The chance that American democracy is debauched beyond recognition in that way by 4 more years of Trump? - greater than 50% imo.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.kinabalu said:
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
god yes.Farooq said:
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
That’s easy for you to say.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Or even České Budějovice.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP2 -
There is a slight problem for Barclay. He is a first class twat. Didn't stop Johnson of courseHYUFD said:
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.Dura_Ace said:
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.HYUFD said:
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs0 -
Eurovision is a more suitable vehicle for a cameo appearance by Dylan Mulvaney.BlancheLivermore said:
Bud Light is to beer as Eurovision is to musicSean_F said:
Which is a mystery, certainly.Farooq said:
The counterargument is, of course, its popularity.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
I bet I wasn't the only PBer wondering why the French made a diesel version. I mean, I know gazole is a bit cheaper in France but...Dura_Ace said:
Just the nickname for the 2000D.viewcode said:
"Diesel"? Was that an autocorrect for "Dassault"?Dura_Ace said:
The Mirage 2000 Diesel is a very sophisticated aircraft with glass cockpit, HOTAS, FLIR, multi mode radar, etc. The Fencer (proposed UAF Storm Shadow platform) is junk in comparison but all it has to do is not get shot down long enough to get a launch.Nigelb said:
The French made a version for UAE's Mirages (which also had its range hobbled), and there was some talk of those going to Ukraine - which now seems a bit unlikely.JosiasJessop said:
Integration with Ukrainian airframes will be interesting. Although from past experience, some will be saying how impossible it is, just as Ukraine do it (the HARM missile).Nigelb said:
Interesting timing, just ahead of the predicted offensive.AlistairM said:StormShadow confirmed for Ukraine. Up to 300km range...
It might be very useful indeed to target the ammunition dumps the Russians have pulled back outside the range of HIMARs - the threat alone will complicate their logistics.
And given the F35 won't be able to carry it, we were going to have some spares on the shelf, as the Typhoon fleet declines in numbers.
So you don't need a particularly sophisticated airframe.
Recall, that despite the excitement over HARM, only one UAF Fulcrum (Blue 12, their only MU2 upgraded a/c) was capable of an AGM-88 launch and the only documented thing they ever hit with it was a block of flats in Kramatorsk by accident. The breathless trumpeting of the latest NATO wonder weapons is as much about propaganda and morale as it is about any actual or expected military effect.
The Russians do this all the time with Kinzhal, Sarmat, etc. for much the same reasons and it is as enthusiastically slurped up. #winninghere #overbychristmas #wheresthef16s
...it turned out to be be just a mirage.1 -
OT. Sad to see that Downing Street has bottled reforms that could makea real difference to people's lives.
No I am not talking about dropping the EU bonfire (which I agree with) but watering down Gove's proposed reforms of leasehold.
I thought Gove's idea was great and the excuse that Downing street are giving - that there is not enough time for majr reforms before the next election - is weak in the extreme.5 -
Let us be honest now.
If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.1 -
Bud will be delighted with that. Eurovision gets bigger every year. If it carries on like this it'll transcend the World Cup before too long.BlancheLivermore said:
Bud Light is to beer as Eurovision is to musicSean_F said:
Which is a mystery, certainly.Farooq said:
The counterargument is, of course, its popularity.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?0 -
Don't diss Cincinnati kid.Leon said:Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0059037/1 -
Cincinatti WKRP. Great US TV comedy.Leon said:Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
The Thanksgiving Turkey Bomb episode is one of the finest bits of comedy in US history.
Use it as a hook into your article.0 -
Sounds ideally suited to be a Tory leader tbh.Nigel_Foremain said:
There is a slight problem for Barclay. He is a first class twat. Didn't stop Johnson of courseHYUFD said:
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.Dura_Ace said:
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.HYUFD said:
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs0 -
One thing is for sure, whenever Labour are in power it is generally a bad day for the economyDialup said:Let us be honest now.
If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.0 -
No. But a fascinating trip is North to South Kentucky. From the stud farms and white picket fences of Lexington and Louisville to the people selling their socks on their porches as you near Cumberland Gap.Leon said:Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
Cincinnati? All I remember is the brown and beige airport.0 -
Different Turkish election poll
https://twitter.com/SerArastirma/status/1656659252088569856
May 14 Presidential Preferences
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 45.2%
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: 52.1%
Sinan Ogan : 2.7%
Between 7 May and 10 May, face-to-face interviews were held with 2795 voters in 26 provinces. Confidence interval was calculated as 95% and margin of error was calculated as ±1.5.0 -
In this case Badenoch was well out of order - purporting that it was only the Speaker’s “preference” that statements be made in the HoC before appearing in the Daily Telegraph - he was right to haul her up, and right to shut down what looked like it was going to be a non apology apology. “I’m sorry if you were offended…..”Nigel_Foremain said:
Seemed a bit contrived and silly to me. I normally like him but he would be best to show a little more humility before he starts seeming like his predecessorCarlottaVance said:Now that’s what I call a bollocking….
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch
https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/1656684232423399424
3 -
Ever day for the economy has been bad for the last 13 years.Nigel_Foremain said:
One thing is for sure, whenever Labour are in power it is generally a bad day for the economyDialup said:Let us be honest now.
If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.2 -
Agreed, but think he over did it a bit. Made him look a bit sillyCarlottaVance said:
In this case Badenoch was well out of order - purporting that it was only the Speaker’s “preference” that statements be made in the HoC before appearing in the Daily Telegraph - he was right to haul her up, and right to shut down what looked like it was going to be a non apology apology. “I’m sorry if you were offended…..”Nigel_Foremain said:
Seemed a bit contrived and silly to me. I normally like him but he would be best to show a little more humility before he starts seeming like his predecessorCarlottaVance said:Now that’s what I call a bollocking….
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch
https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/16566842324233994240 -
Here's Topping's 'sane' list:Farooq said:
Is there a list of which posters are sane or insane?TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.
1. Topping
0 -
I’ll take the word of an expert.Sean_F said:
Ordinary Bud tastes as bad as Goblin cum. Bud light tastes even worse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
What happened, did someone drink it?Sandpit said:Robert Lachky, former Chief Creative Officer for Budweiser:
“It took us 20 years to take Bud Light beer to the No 1 beer in the country and it took them one week to dismantle it,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/11/robert-lachky-bud-light-reputation-destroyed-dylan-mulvaney/
Why would anyone wish to drink this abominable pastiche of Budvar/Budweiss?
A gobblin’ onanophile?
1 -
I am sure we can all agree that's utter bollocks.Nigel_Foremain said:
One thing is for sure, whenever Labour are in power it is generally a bad day for the economyDialup said:Let us be honest now.
If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.0 -
Things have moved on from last election HY! Different people will stand, stock levels have gone up and down.HYUFD said:
Barclay was loyal to Boris, a Leaver but also a Sunak backer in both leadership contests so likely gets most Rishi MPs behind him if Rishi resigns after election defeat.Dura_Ace said:
What's Barclay's story? Why will the MPs pick him? Isn't Tommy Tugs too européen. Although I think he might have been in the army.HYUFD said:
Braverman won't get through Tory MPs.MoonRabbit said:
Bravermans got it in the bag with the Tory membership . After election defeats, with parties lost their way after some time in power, Labour goes left, Tories go right.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclaykinabalu said:
Who on earth will the party pick then if even she's now seen as not batty enough?HYUFD said:
That is Kemi's leadership hopes over then. The ERG and Conservative right won't forgive her abandoning repeal of EU laws. If the Tories lose the next general election she will be seen as linked as much to the defeated Sunak as Hunt nowNigelb said:
You didn't share this piece of priceless tw@ttery.TheScreamingEagles said:Badenoch is pissing off Mr Speaker with her insult to Parliament.
https://news.sky.com/story/who-do-you-think-you-are-talking-to-speaker-rebukes-kemi-badenoch-as-tory-mps-line-up-to-criticise-eu-law-u-turn-12878350
..But staunch Brexiteers within the Conservative ranks have criticised the change, with former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing Mr Sunak of "behaving like a Borgia"...
I'm curious - is he implying adultery, incest, theft, bribery, or murder ?
(I think we can rule out simony.)
Bravermans already the unofficial right wing opposition leader to Truss and Sunak. She is unsackable now.
You are absolutely right to support the saner candidate in Barclay. But any centerist moderate or continuity for Sunak and Hunts economic policy stands less than zero chance. Take Bravermans very forceful telling off of police for taking the pubs golliwogs away as widely reported across media - 98% of people believe she did do that, 2% know she actually didn’t.
Most likely Tory MPs will pick a final 2 of Barclay v Mordaunt or Tugendhat in my view to go to members. Assuming Rishi resigns as party leader after losing the next general election
Tugendhat was a Remainer but also backed Truss in the final 2 so will pick up most of his backing from the leadership contest last summer plus add some Truss supporters and Hunt supporters. Mordaunt will be a contender too having been 3rd last summer with Tory MPs
It’s what you are not saying isn’t it. You are saying Braverman won’t get into last 2. You are not saying what happens if she does…0 -
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasigly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they wshould be briefing MPs first.CarlottaVance said:Now that’s what I call a bollocking….
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch
https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/16566842324233994242 -
I think he'd be content enough to pass it on to one of his kids, Ivanka or Junior, but I'd expect him to use starting the process to amend the constitution to allow a third term as a loyalty test for Republicans and to distract Democrats.Dura_Ace said:
How to get a third term must be vexing DJT. The bar for a constitutional amendment is almost impossibly high. Some SCOTUS shenanigans?kinabalu said:
Not a military event with soldiers and tanks etc, an insidious, top to bottom corruption of politics and the judiciary. The chance that American democracy is debauched beyond recognition in that way by 4 more years of Trump? - greater than 50% imo.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty relaxed about the state of democracy in the US. What probability do you ascribe to the US govt being overthrown by force in the next five years.kinabalu said:
I'm not talking about the Jan riot. Other than provoking it in the moment I'm not sure he had much of a clue himself what was going on there. The other ways he tried to rig the election were more the attempted 'coup'. And this was plotted over a period not adlibbed. What would it look like after another 4 years of him in the WH? I don't know but it's a bit irrational to be relaxed about it.TOPPING said:
"...if he had managed..."kinabalu said:
No need to be quite so literal. 'Trump/MAGA forever' means achieving corruption on a scale that makes him/them very hard to dislodge by the conventional means of a free & fair election.TOPPING said:
Trump/MAGA forever. He couldn't even get himself together to overturn the last election I think forever is a stretch.kinabalu said:
Well he had to be dragged out last time, tried to rig the election, pulling rank to intimidate officials into conjuring up votes for him, tried to get his VP to quash the certification and allow States to override with slates for him to swing it and keep him in power. This is all on the record. It happened. It didn't work but he tried alright.TOPPING said:
I really don't see that. Not that as we have seen we have been at the end of any kind of history but you are saying that the US is possibly headed towards autarchy I just don't believe.kinabalu said:
Yep. An elected President Trump is better than an unelected President Trump. However there's a risk the first leads to the second so it's best to play safe and have neither imo.TOPPING said:
I have a soft spot for someone who is democratically elected by any given electorate so put me in the democracy not as bad as all the other systems column.kinabalu said:
An American PB equivalent might show more Trump support, I guess. There are things about the country we struggle to understand. Although tbh I think you're being a touch generous (to us) by saying 'not a word of support' for him on here ever. I recall a fair amount in the past, and ok there's very little now but still some. Plus there will be PBers who secretly have a soft spot and keep shtum to avoid a tongue lashing.algarkirk said:
On this subject, there is an interesting feature about PB. SFAICS there are several people/positions that have Zero support with PBers. These include: Trump, Xi, Putin, Assad, all sides in Sudan, North Korea, the Burmese government and so on.kinabalu said:
Share the sentiment but I rate it more a 25%.Sean_F said:
I'd give Trump about a 40% chance of winning, if he runs against Biden. That is far too close for comfort.kinabalu said:
Very scary on so many levels. Good for all the worst people (eg the MAGA goons and Putin) and bad for everyone else. If it were to happen my Big Short would turn into the worst single betting loss I've ever had and I can honestly hand-on-heart say I don't even think about that aspect. That's how bleak a prospect it is.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The nomination is his to lose. Could he become president then? Of course, especially if the economic backdrop worsens, as seems likely.kinabalu said:
Yes, not a good read. It's hard to see him winning the presidency back, with things as they are now, but it'd be better if he isn't on the ballot as the GOP candidate. If he gets the Nom he has to have a non-trivial chance just because of 'events', eg a Biden incident, a bank crash, something in Russia/Ukraine etc.kle4 said:Depressing write up on BBC about Trump's town hall event. Basically that he will never stop saying 2020 was rigged, will pardon 6 Jan rioters, will definitely shift policy on Ukraine (though exactly how is unclear, but ending it in 24 hours as he suggests could only occur if he stopped ongoing support), and that the audience was eating out of the palm of his hand.
If they get the chance the party will pick him again and the representatives will fall in line.
Of these one leaps out as different. Trump has tens of millions of loyal supporters in a free market liberal democracy with a free press.
But not a word of support on PB (me included) ever, while Trump is 5/2 with Hills to be the next POTUS.
is this because:
(a) the PB Overton window is actually quite small
(b) because nearly half the USA really are as authoritarian fascistlike as Putin and co and Trump's position resembles 1930s Germany
(c) something else. (What?)
Of course loathe the man but don't let that colour your usually razor-sharp assessment of the state of politics today.
So, ok, a repeat and this time successful might be far from a given - but it's a definite possibility given another 4 years in control of the GOP and the Federal government, his foaming gullible base, the levers he could pull, stack the courts, stack the legislatures, placemen all over, the manipulations etc. Object: Trump/MAGA forever.
If you don't see at least a risk worth worrying about I'll have to put it down to you not following American politics that closely. Which I know you don't and it's fair enough. It's not everyone's cup of tea.
But as you are such a close follower of US politics I will take heed and upgrade the probability of Trump/MAGA forever from 0.000001% to 0.000002%.
Thank you for your insight. I will bet accordingly.
The risk of this is far higher than you have it there. You need to move the decimal point quite a way to the right. Course if he had managed it last time we wouldn't need to assess the risk, would we? It'd be 100%.
But he didn't and my point is I believe the system in the US is robust enough to see off any attempt to overthrow the government by force.
We have already discussed Jan 6th and agreed, those sane posters on PB have agreed, that is, that it was far from a coup attempt. If that's what you mean. Don't put yourself on the side of the insane posters by saying that Jan 6th was a coup.0 -
NASCAR driving experience at Kentucky Speedway (done this, got black flagged)Leon said:Talking of shite American things, the Gazette has just commissioned me to do a travel article on..... wait for it.... Cincinnati. Yes, the Newent of USA, the Wick of the Midwest, the Walsall of Jesus Christ Why There?
Can anyone cheer me up? Is there any remotely positive thing about Cincinnati that I can look forward to?
THIRD on its list of major attractions is "The American Sign Museum"
HELP
Museum of the USAF at Wright-Patterson AFB. Don't drive in the wrong gate or you'll get shot.
0 -
It passes the 'balance of probabilities' civil test, Richard, let's just say that. And for me it cruises past the criminal one too. Can a reasonable person have an iota of doubt that Donald Trump cares nothing for anything other than himself? I don't think so.Richard_Tyndall said:
I did spend a lot of time considering that question and I am afraid that - whilst I never believe things are as black and white as they are painted - I did come to the conclusion that Trump really didn't and doesn't give a Monkey's about the fate of the US Working and Middle classes. Their problems were a means to an end for him, nothing more. He would attempt to solve their problems where that improved his chances of re-election but so much of what he did was really just lip service.TOPPING said:@Richard_Tyndall
cracking article on Trump.
As for:
"It is this disparity and this feeling that they were forgotten and scorned by the political classes which, I believe, was the driving force behind Trump’s rise to power. I do not mean that he actually cared about this issue."
Do we think for all his bonkersness he really somewhere didn't care something for the poor and left behind. I mean he's no gandhi but even from a solipsistic motive I can believe that he wanted to save the world. Not his fault that the world had already been saved by you-know-who.
Now I know I can't prove this. It is really nothing more than a gut feeling based on my own personal biases and my observations. But I think that it is a reasonable view to adopt - at least in the absence of any evidence to the contrary.1 -
In other news, it looks like T54 tanks have been seen in-theatre in Ukraine. And probably broken down:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CsGq2xfsq9t/?img_index=10 -
Point of order, do they opposition need to make policy announcements to the HoC? Do they even have the opportunity to do so?Richard_Tyndall said:
Excellent. He is dead right as well. Both parties are increasingly guilty when in Government of making major policy announcements outside of Parliament when they should be briefing MPs first.CarlottaVance said:Now that’s what I call a bollocking….
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has issued a fierce rebuke to Kemi Badenoch
https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/16566842324233994240 -
I think you will find that is not necessarily true. The economy recovered quite well after Labour left (the old "there is no money left" moment). It obviously did badly during the pandemic, like the rest of the world, and now it is doing OK according to the independent bank of England.Dialup said:
Ever day for the economy has been bad for the last 13 years.Nigel_Foremain said:
One thing is for sure, whenever Labour are in power it is generally a bad day for the economyDialup said:Let us be honest now.
If Keir Starmer was PM now the Tories would be saying what a terrible day it was for the economy.
I was obviously being facetious anyway. There have been the odd day when the economy has done well under Labour.
Sadly that isn't likely to happen under Kier, because unlike the Blair government, none of his front bench has any understanding of business. They are just into hosing money at the public sector which they will attempt to do until they have an inevitable Liz Truss moment.1
This discussion has been closed.