Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com

16781012

Comments

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    A belief in aspiration, hard work and growing the economy. A belief in letting working people keep more of what they earn, and getting good pay rises from growth too.

    He also caved in totally to the NIMBY tendency and stood in the way of allowing more development and people to have a home of their own.

    Sunak is just interested in ever more bloating the welfare state for the expanding non-working pensioner client class, protecting the property value of those with property portfolios while jacking up taxes on work and having no objections to young people facing a future of being heavily taxed rent payers.

    He believes in nothing other than managed decline and protecting the interests of those who are already well off, rather than those who are aspirational which is when the Tories are at their best.
    Been a while since they were at their best then. Major, I guess, at a pinch?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    Your main mistake there is a lot of councils that declare early elect in thirds (less to count, for a start) and the all-up ones tend to be later, so the number of declared Councils is a misleading measure as quite a few of the already declared councils only had a dozen or so seats up.
    But they also tend to be urban. Will the Tories have done as badly in the shires? That is the question we still need answered.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    I don't agree with much of what Barty says but I have never seen any homophobia or transphobia from him, barely-diguised or otherwise.

    There is a poster on here who is frequently exhibiting barely-disguised racism though, someone who ramps up xenophobic tweeters.
    Perhaps it’s the phenomenon of being racist and phobic by being non-racist and nonphobic that the US Fuckwit Right memes about?

    So Black Lives Matter is racist and the Proud Boys aren’t. Or something….
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    IanB2 said:

    Sailed through the Channel Tunnel this morning. Who knew such was even possible?

    Well, Tom Cruise managed to get a helicopter through it in Mission Impossible 1, so it's obviously a multi-modal tunnel ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    edited May 2023
    kle4 said:

    It varies massively (Wales I think is sensible and has a single rate). Some get 6-7k allowance per annum, others 14k+. Not including those with special responsibilities like leaders.
    Looking at my Dad's allowances it seems becoming a Lord Mayor pays nicely for that year !
    Fuck knows how you'd do it properly with a full time job though. Might be something I consider going for when I'm retired.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    kinabalu said:

    Been a while since they were at their best then. Major, I guess, at a pinch?
    Coalition early years too. Carried on austerity too long but otherwise sensible govt.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,203
    The tweeter of that thread is originally a disaffected Labour voter, not a Tory.

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1518584216186990593

    I voted most of my life for Labour and the Lib Dems - couple of times the Greens - then I voted the Brexit Party - at the last general election I voted for Conservative - at the last local elections I voted Lib Dem, Independent and Conservative - so not very through and through
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Labour 295-345 seats is my guess.

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
  • Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
    Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    ping said:

    What does your average councillor actually get in terms of money in the bank account, each month - and in terms of expenses?

    I genuinely have no idea.
    Varies hugely by council and role
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
    Ok fair enough yes LAB would have a chance there on that basis 👍
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    I see Thresher says Labour Minority

    Curtice due soon
  • Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    I believe the current incarnation has very little in common with the 1983 party. Indeed, they are very Eurosceptic and have some kind of pact with RefUK... poor old Woy would have choked on his claret to hear such a thing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Pulpstar said:

    Looking at my Dad's allowances it seems becoming a Lord Mayor pays nicely for that year !
    Fuck knows how you'd do it properly with a full time job though. Might be something I consider going for when I'm retired.
    Many of those with special responsibilities are essentially full time and even then some work. Regular councillors I think report 20 hours or so per week on council work. Not surprising older folk predominate, though I believe more younger ones are coming through.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I believe the current incarnation has very little in common with the 1983 party. Indeed, they are very Eurosceptic and have some kind of pact with RefUK... poor old Woy would have choked on his claret to hear such a thing.
    Yes, so I understand. But still the very name! It’s yesterday once more.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Your main mistake there is a lot of councils that declare early elect in thirds (less to count, for a start) and the all-up ones tend to be later, so the number of declared Councils is a misleading measure as quite a few of the already declared councils only had a dozen or so seats up.
    According to the Institute for Government a total of 8,058 council seats are being contested (excluding any by-elections held on the same day).

    2735 (33.9%) have been decided so far and the Tories have lost 334.

    If that rate continues they'll lose a total of 984.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    kle4 said:

    Politicians want votes of racists, they count like anyone else. The good ones hope they receive the votes incidentally and not because they are acting racist themselves.
    Yes by 'don't want' I meant before the fact, so 'seek to repel' or at least 'do not seek to attract'. But after the fact, come the count, you don't know who, only how many, and at this point it's a case of the more the better.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    Are you muddling her up with Penny?
    Absolutely talking about Penny, I am a bit behind. But not impressed with any of them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    kinabalu said:

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
    Go on then......
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Erm
    *clutches head in despair*
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Dialup said:

    @TSE @MikeSmithson @PBModerator please can you act on one user attempting to doxx me (incorrectly I might add)

    Wah Wah Wah, how can they doxx you if it is incorrect.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,170
    kle4 said:

    Abolish the parish council, Dura! Saves money, and anything to be discussed would be by a collective of parishioners.
    Now that I have torpedoed the coronation bollocks I probably won't attend or respond to any correspondence for about a year.

    "We are revolutionaries and insurrectionists because we do not just want to improve existing institutions but to destroy them completely." ~Malatesta
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    LDs gain Stratford on Avon is another eye-catcher, is it not. Worrying times for Nadhim Zahawi.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    He’s not “hardcore” at all.
    Immigration levels are higher than ever.
    Exactly hardcore at increasing it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005

    According to the Institute for Government a total of 8,058 council seats are being contested (excluding any by-elections held on the same day).

    2735 (33.9%) have been decided so far and the Tories have lost 334.

    If that rate continues they'll lose a total of 984.
    My guess is it will get worse, so maybe slightly over 1,000 losses.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Leon said:

    Hague was a great missed opportunity. Would have been a fine prime minister in 2010. Much better than Cameron. Went off half cock too soon

    Tsk
    He was a full cock
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,203

    You mean me.

    If it’s not you, then it’s not remotely close to doxing you is it, in which case why all the fuss? 🤷‍♀️

    I would also not be doxing you as who you REALLY ARE, merely suggesting you sound like someone who used to post. Is doxing really the right word for that?

    It would be something the ban hammer would fall frequently, as there is regular such discussions.
    It's more deadnaming than doxing.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,166
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    Ok I get it.

    But, Barty calls you a racist which I can understand you didn't like. So you call Barty homophobic.

    Does the fact that a few posters who generally disagree with Barty chipped in to say they hadn't read anything homophobic from Barty, BUT nobody so far has claimed that they haven't seen any evidence that you are racist, tell you anything?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    You mean me.

    If it’s not you, then it’s not remotely close to doxing you is it, in which case why all the fuss? 🤷‍♀️

    I would also not be doxing you as who you REALLY ARE, merely suggesting you sound like someone who used to post. Is doxing really the right word for that?

    It would be something the ban hammer would fall frequently, as there is regular such discussions.
    Obviously an absolute idiot, even if it was I hardly think calling someone a horse could be construed as doxxing
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited May 2023

    Go on then......
    It's going to be 590 labour seats gained at the current rate (36% counted, 215 seats gained), just saying.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Erm
    The self knowledge is not strong with @Leon
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    Are you drunk? You specifically have just cast aspersions on someone in particular and in particular someone who isn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Nigelb said:

    Is this too good to be true (about to be shafted by banking crisis, etc), or is Biden going to have rather a good story to put to the electorate next year ?

    Holy moly, we've got another one!

    Payrolls grew a huuuuuge +253k in April, well above market expectations. There's no hint of any sort of labor market slowdown in these numbers. Other indicators had been hinting at a slowdown, but these are more reliable.

    https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1654463816338472960

    Bad news for markets
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
    I cannot show from my phone but basically 3 wards of Swindon are being joined with a huge tranche of rural wiltshire down towards salisbury. They include a ward which went narrowly LD, one moderately Lab and one not voting which is Conservative. That parliament seat will be Con.

    Of the other two the South seat on today's result should be a comfy gain. Most went Labour fairly easily.

    The North seat had some closish results but purely on today also looks good for a Lab gain.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    kamski said:

    Ok I get it.

    But, Barty calls you a racist which I can understand you didn't like. So you call Barty homophobic.

    Does the fact that a few posters who generally disagree with Barty chipped in to say they hadn't read anything homophobic from Barty, BUT nobody so far has claimed that they haven't seen any evidence that you are racist, tell you anything?
    Aaaand, that’s a No
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Perhaps it’s the phenomenon of being racist and phobic by being non-racist and nonphobic that the US Fuckwit Right memes about?

    So Black Lives Matter is racist and the Proud Boys aren’t. Or something….
    Er...?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    Why won't Sky News's YouTube live feed allow me to wind back a few minutes? I wanted to see what Prof Thrasher was saying.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    malcolmg said:

    Obviously an absolute idiot, even if it was I hardly think calling someone a horse could be construed as doxxing
    They lost their rag with me, aggressive and swearing before I even said that. But I still rather it all never happened, and that I simply never replied back at all.

    Meanwhile. We know why Stratford on Avon flipped, it’s more comedy than tragedy, still dramatic to see it play out like that though.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,546
    kjh said:

    Are you drunk? You specifically have just cast aspersions on someone in particular and in particular someone who isn't.
    Gah, you should all stop feeding the troll.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 785
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
    I thought technically the old SDP party merged with the Liberals, for example Cowley Street the old SDP headquarters became the new headquarters of the Liberal Democrats, so that the "continuing" SDP (tick) was actually a new party. So not the same party legally.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    People need to Phobia off and get on with their miserable lives.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Erm
    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    I thought technically the old SDP party merged with the Liberals, for example Cowley Street the old SDP headquarters became the new headquarters of the Liberal Democrats, so that the "continuing" SDP (tick) was actually a new party. So not the same party legally.
    A bit like Sinn Fein, then :lol:
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,166
    Leon said:

    Aaaand, that’s a No
    Thought as much. It should tell you that even the posters who are sympathetic to you aren't willing to say that you aren't racist, because you tend to post some right bollocks sometimes. hth.


    Personally I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Certainly much less racist than that poster "eadric" who used to post on here
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Leon said:

    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
    Answer: None of the above
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849
    malcolmg said:

    He was a full cock
    He wasn't circumcised? How would you know a thing like that?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,257

    LDs gain Stratford on Avon is another eye-catcher, is it not. Worrying times for Nadhim Zahawi.

    Probably not. They've held Stratford in the past.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    They lost their rag with me, aggressive and swearing before I even said that. But I still rather it all never happened, and that I simply never replied back at all.

    Meanwhile. We know why Stratford on Avon flipped, it’s more comedy than tragedy, still dramatic to see it play out like that though.
    Not bard that one!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    Sean_F said:

    Probably not. They've held Stratford in the past.
    I thought there aren't any elections in Newham this year :lol:
  • Looking at the Bracknell Forest Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/BracknellForest) there seems to be a big story emerging down there with Labour seemingly close to taking the council from the Tories when they only had two seats previously.
  • Lib Dems gain Dacorum (basically Hemel Hempstead plus Berkhamsted up to Tring).

  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
    New Swindon South is more Labour friendly than old Swindon South. Part of Chiseldon and Lawn, Ridgeway, and Wroughton and Wichelstowe move to Wiltshire East. Swindon North will have some rural hinterland and Wiltshire East masses of it, only 10K of the that constituency electorate will be Swindon Borough.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Wolverhampton so far Lab 30 (+2), Con 9(-2), 21 still counting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Er...?
    It’s a wacky wacky world on the wacky Right.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700

    It could try getting a grip on the future.

    If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
    AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.

    The biggest laugh for me is that most of the gullible hoards that voted for Brexit did it for nothing more than curbing immigration. It hasn't curbed it and it won't. Brexit becomes more pointless and dumb by the day
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Leon said:

    This here was an IQ test failed by

    kle4
    Malmesbury
    Selebian
    noneoftheabove
    It was an honour just to take part.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Wolverhampton so far Lab 30 (+2), Con 9(-2), 21 still counting.

    I was "wondering" about that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    They lost their rag with me, aggressive and swearing before I even said that. But I still rather it all never happened, and that I simply never replied back at all.

    Meanwhile. We know why Stratford on Avon flipped, it’s more comedy than tragedy, still dramatic to see it play out like that though.
    Certainly losing etgh rag and cursing and swearing is a big coincidence, at worst a doppleganger.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,496
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65499929

    "Covid global health emergency is over, WHO says"

    Hrm.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    edited May 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Now that I have torpedoed the coronation bollocks I probably won't attend or respond to any correspondence for about a year.

    "We are revolutionaries and insurrectionists because we do not just want to improve existing institutions but to destroy them completely." ~Malatesta
    So you're secretly a small government Tory ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Coalition early years too. Carried on austerity too long but otherwise sensible govt.
    A Sven Goran Eriksson govt in many ways in that what followed makes their record look quite decent. On the whole I don't think the Coalition was that different to how Brown/Darling would have been. Maybe because of the LD influence.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    If you're accusing people of any kind of prejudice and you're unable to explain what on earth it is you're talking about, by all means please do give up.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    So Thrasher suggests on UNS we would have a hung parliament on these results (vote lead of circa 8-10%).

    Two factors - one possibly good for Lab, the other less so:

    1. There's a very high independent + Lib Dem vote (compared to polling positions). Some of that might go Labour's way in a GE. The other part might manifest itself in tactical voting against the Tories, helping maximise Tory losses and opposition gains.

    2. Local election results often overemphasise swings against the current government in times of unpopularity, meaning that in a GE the Tories - might - be able to pull closer.

    So despite the unquestionably bad results for the Tories today, it feels like the ball is now back in Starmer's court and how he prepares Labour for government in the next 12-18 months. Still a lot to play for, though I can't see any way the Tories salvage a government out of the next election.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Andy_JS said:

    Why won't Sky News's YouTube live feed allow me to wind back a few minutes? I wanted to see what Prof Thrasher was saying.

    Like we discussed with Curtis earlier, and like medical doctors are cautious about saying too much until they are sure about things, as their authority and reputation is built on not leaving hostages to fortune, but he said based on data currently in front of him, no majority for Labour.

    Though, when pressed on the changing situation in Scotland maybe helping Labour to a majority, he said something like yes it is a realistic assumption to put out there, but he doesn’t have recent Scotland data in order to say more on that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65499929

    "Covid global health emergency is over, WHO says"

    Hrm.

    Time to buy some masks?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700
    Leon said:

    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
    Hmm, it may be a weird intelligence test that only you understand, but IQ test it definitely isn't
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    kle4 said:

    I cannot show from my phone but basically 3 wards of Swindon are being joined with a huge tranche of rural wiltshire down towards salisbury. They include a ward which went narrowly LD, one moderately Lab and one not voting which is Conservative. That parliament seat will be Con.

    Of the other two the South seat on today's result should be a comfy gain. Most went Labour fairly easily.

    The North seat had some closish results but purely on today also looks good for a Lab gain.
    It looks like the boundary changes make Swindon South a little more marginal so less than the 13% CON majority mentioned earlier.

    Also, I believe Heidi Alexander is standing for LAB. She has previously been an MP in London and is a good candidate. So maybe a LAB gain after all!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    edited May 2023

    There. There it is

    That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon


  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    If the Lib Dems have gained Dacorum does that mean no more dodgy graphs or abusive leaflets?
    Don't be naive. Having taken it, they'll need to keep it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    So far, Greens have gained +81, LibDems only +91. It's gonna be close :)
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Southampton counting very slow. Only 7 wards declared so far:

    Labour 15 (+2)
    Conservative 3 (-4)
    Liberal Democrats 3 (+2)

    We had a tied vote in Harefield between the 2nd and 3rd placed Tory so they drew straws to see who would get the one year term and who would get the three year term.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    A bit like Sinn Fein, then :lol:
    No no no

    That’s Republican Sinn Fein

    Which is completely different to the republicans in Sinn Fein

    Who are completely different to the 32 County Sovereignty Movement

    Who are utterly nothing to do with Saoradh

    They are all splitters, of course.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
    Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Leon said:

    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
    To repeat the advice upthread.
    Don't try to reason with Leon when he's in a mischievous mood.
    A polite FU suffices.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Go on then......
    Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Leon said:

    There. There it is

    That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think vaguely of an unseen horizon

    You should've been a writer pal.

    (You'd need to improve your material obvs. but there's a kernel there.)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,166
    Chris said:

    If you're accusing people of any kind of prejudice and you're unable to explain what on earth it is you're talking about, by all means please do give up.
    I think Leon was trying to suggest that the accusation from Barty that Leon is a racist is as without foundation as the accusation that Barty is homophobic.

    Backfired a bit.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Looking at the Bracknell Forest Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/BracknellForest) there seems to be a big story emerging down there with Labour seemingly close to taking the council from the Tories when they only had two seats previously.

    I was always surprised that Bracknell wasn't more Labour. When people got enough money they moved to Wokingham. Of course, with all the housebuilding round there there is now less than 400m separating the outskirts (one field and the A329M) so they are pretty much one!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    edited May 2023
    Chris said:

    Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
    “AI” as it currently constituted, is a productivity tool. It will allow a person to do the work of X people.

    All previous technological improvements in productivity have created more jobs than they have destroyed.

    This time *might* be different - but why?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    That's simply not what "populist" means, and there are very, very few politicians who don't try to be a bit relatable.

    A "populist" is someone who says you're being targeted by establishment elites (the swamp, the blob, call it what you will). It isn't simply someone who is fairly right wing and has a bit of a go (rather an unsuccessful one in Hague's case) at coming across vaguely like a normal person. Indeed, although sometimes they do, often populists DON'T try to come across as normal - they are setting themselves up as saviours.
    Words change meaning over time. Twenty years ago, "populist" meant trying to project an image of ordinariness, the bloke in the street rather than the modern version of demagogery.

    Google old news articles and you will have no trouble finding articles accusing Hague of being populist.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    So Thrasher suggests on UNS we would have a hung parliament on these results (vote lead of circa 8-10%).

    Two factors - one possibly good for Lab, the other less so:

    1. There's a very high independent + Lib Dem vote (compared to polling positions). Some of that might go Labour's way in a GE. The other part might manifest itself in tactical voting against the Tories, helping maximise Tory losses and opposition gains.

    2. Local election results often overemphasise swings against the current government in times of unpopularity, meaning that in a GE the Tories - might - be able to pull closer.

    So despite the unquestionably bad results for the Tories today, it feels like the ball is now back in Starmer's court and how he prepares Labour for government in the next 12-18 months. Still a lot to play for, though I can't see any way the Tories salvage a government out of the next election.

    If you are saying we expect swingback, but also expect tactical voting but hard to say what it does, does it cancel out and exceed swing-back, then I absolutely agree.

    You say the ball is in Labours court to sell and seal the deal, but it doesn’t leave Tories much leeway either. If Sunak’s financial services compensation scheme goes down like some of these banks are, taking Sunak and governments credibility with it, it hands a majority win to Labour.

    The pressure is on the Tories too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65499929

    "Covid global health emergency is over, WHO says"

    Hrm.

    "WHO said that even though the emergency phase was over, the pandemic hasn't come to an end, noting recent spikes in cases in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

    "The UN health agency says that thousands of people are still dying from the virus every week."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787

    Well, Tom Cruise managed to get a helicopter through it in Mission Impossible 1, so it's obviously a multi-modal tunnel ...
    He wasn't piloting it, it was Jean Reno. Tom Cruise was on a TGV masquerading as a Eurostar train. Obviously. :)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    kamski said:

    I think Leon was trying to suggest that the accusation from Barty that Leon is a racist is as without foundation as the accusation that Barty is homophobic.

    Backfired a bit.
    There must have been some subtlety that escaped me in his saying "If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up", if he wasn't suggesting anyone had been homophobic. But I admit that with some people anything is possible.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    Leon said:


    There. There it is

    That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon


    You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Chris said:

    Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
    Jobs for the robots you siliconphobe you ;)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    .Tory hold in my ward. Not really surprising, one of the safer ones in the area. We got one Tory leaflet, none from any of the other candidates.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    For some reason the Tories made gains in the tower blocks area of Chelmsley Wood in north Solihull.

    https://www.solihull.gov.uk/councillors-and-democracy/election-results-2023
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    kinabalu said:

    Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
    I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.

    I can’t see that happening.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    No no no

    That’s Republican Sinn Fein

    Which is completely different to the republicans in Sinn Fein

    Who are completely different to the 32 County Sovereignty Movement

    Who are utterly nothing to do with Saoradh

    They are all splitters, of course.
    Official SF are now the Workers' Party, the Provos are the *real* splitters, after the Ard Fheis in 1970!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.

    I can’t see that happening.
    'Gaining' more seats, you mean.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    So far, Greens have gained +81, LibDems only +91. It's gonna be close :)

    Is that net? Do you have a link to that?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    viewcode said:

    He wasn't piloting it, it was Jean Reno. Tom Cruise was on a TGV masquerading as a Eurostar train. Obviously. :)
    TBF I was so incensed at the inaccuracy that I've obviously blotted out the details. ;)

    (I think it was also the MI film that showed various scenes from London, such as Big Ben, then added the caption 'London')
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    Jobs for the robots you siliconphobe you ;)
    I don't even understand what you're getting at. If you can't express yourself more clearer, you may fail a Turing test. (Not that I'm implying that I would be prejudiced against you whatsoever if you were a differently biologicised intelligence.)
This discussion has been closed.