I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
I agree that 'Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s'. I think Sunak's Tories are pretty much as bad as Majors but maybe I'm biased.
Where the Tories do have an issue is: what have they achieved for their 13/14 years in power? Major's Tories could point to the radical changes of Thatcher era and a clear improvement living standards and in the economic standing of the country. All Sunak can point to is (an increasingly unpopular) Brexit. Everything else has stagnated or gone backwards.
That is why they should, and will I hope, be kicked out.
Most of the positive changes were in term 1 - e.g building the more progressive income tax position (albeit by nicking a LD policy).
It’s all been downhill since 2015, admittedly. The elephant in the room here being that this spelled the end of the coalition….
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
The trigger seems to have been a relatively recent decision to extend deadlines for water companies to hit clean-up targets.
Yep I don't blame the opposition for jumping on this and making capital out of it but I kind of expect better of the PB conclave.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
The trigger seems to have been a relatively recent decision to extend deadlines for water companies to hit clean-up targets.
Yep I don't blame the opposition for jumping on this and making capital out of it but I kind of expect better of the PB conclave.
It was the Tories voting to overturn the Lords ammendment to clean up the rivers that made it an issue.
Tories loosened rules via Brexit "freedoms" in order to pay shareholders rather than fix infrastructure is the meme.
Most of the "shareholders" are the pension schemes that doubtless a large number of people on here are benefitting/will benefit from.
Perhaps the wastrels and moaners who take early retirement should take one less holiday a year and give it to a river charity to redress the balance of their greed?
Most of our water companies are overseas owned aren't they? Hence the dividends go there?
Last time I looked they were PLCs. Pension funds like utility companies. Utility greed= pensioner greed
According to these good people:-
The English water companies are more than 90% owned by shareholders abroad, for example:
• Wessex Water is 100% owned by a Malaysian company, YTL • Northumbrian Water is owned by Hong Kong businessman Li Ka Shing • Thames Water is partly owned by investors from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, China and Australia
Nothing like a bit of selective argument. Interesting though, thank you. My point still holds though. A large amount of whingers about private company dividends are people sitting on big fat pensions. Pure hypocrisy.
How is it hypocrisy to argue for tougher regulation of water companies, whether or not your pension fund (if you have one) holds shares in them ?
That's the most stupid argument I've heard today.
It wasn't my argument. It was an observation that many who bleat on about the outrageous situation of utilities issuing dividends are often the same economically inactive folk who laze around while sitting on massive pensions. Not that hard to follow really is it Einstein? I guess may apply to you?
And on that note I will wish you adieu as I would like to do some work and have already spent far too much time on here. Fun though it is. See you all soon
Yeah , hopefully not too soon, bored to tears with your mince.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
Oh dear, I have just looked at the weather forecast for tomorrow. It looks like Diana's tears will rain on Charles's parade.
I am hoping fervently for torrential rain over all of London for many many hours Saturday.
It rained for his Mum’s coronation; people still lined the route. I was selling programmes in Regent St. Sold out. I wouldn’t do it now! Couldn’t anyway; housebound.
Commiserations OKC , hopefully things are improving for you health wise. I doubt you would be wanting to camp out for days for it in any event.
There is one place where the Cons are seeing massive gains against the overall trend - Slough (due to the Lab run council going bust). Currently 10 Con - 6 Lab. Send Rishi down to the bus station!
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
It's certainly better than 30mph. There are plenty of 20mph areas where a 25mph limit would make more sense, but it's hardly a hill to die on.
Remarkable comments on Sky News from a financial expert when asked about why UK bank shares were not under pressure in the way that bank shares are in the US. Before you start to feel smug...........
His point was that UK banks are now more akin to building societies since the bulk of their lending is on domestic mortgages (I guess we knew that). What was more disturbing was his claim that these were basically risk-free assets since you had things like the mortgage guarantee scheme and implicit acceptance that the government won't allow house prices to fall. The taxpayer will be on the hook. So if you wonder why we have a load of expensive houses and a lack of dynamic companies in the UK economy there you go!
I cannot understand why we see this problem as so insoluble. If earnings rise by 5% a year and house prices are stagnant the ratio of earnings to prices comes down quite quickly.
If earnings rise by 5% a year then as the countries largest employer the government has little money to bung their client votes.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
There was a discussion on here a few days ago about the how the culture and history of the West Midlands in particular is more distinct from the M62 belt and North East than many (down south, but in the north too) assume. There are demographic parallels, but Walsall is not Wythenshawe, nor Dudley Doncaster. The Conservatives, in their current incarnation, scratch an in itch there - whereas you feel the vote was somewhat 'lent' in the other traditionally-Labour areas outside the WMs that went blue.
As with the LDs in Hull, I don't doubt there's a 'good hardworking councillors replacing ineffective dinosaurs' effect too.
You appear to implicitly accept the apparent paradigm that the result in Dudley is apparently "bad". Please explain why a result across the council of Lab 13(+1), Con 12(-1), Others 0 is "bad" in a local authority where all 4 parliamentary seats are now held by the Conservatives, none of which would fall in the GE unless the swing was more than 14%. For Labour to be winning more local government seats than the Conservatives in the borough strikes me as being pretty good.
It's not bad, but I wouldn't see a net gain of one as good, either.
Not exactly a positive list for the tories so far...
Odd phrasing. Changing it to be consistent gives us:
Which councils have changed hands so far? With just under half of the local election results declared, here's a list of the councils that have changed hands so far:
Brentwood - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Tamworth - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Plymouth - no overall control loss to Labour
North West Leicestershire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Hertsmere - Conservatives loss to no overall control
East Lindsay - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Stoke-on-Trent - no overall control loss to Labour
Boston - no overall control loss to Independent
Windsor & Maidenhead - Conservatives loss to Lib Dem
Medway - Conservatives loss to Labour
South Kesteven - Conservatives loss to no overall control
East Hertfordshire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
South Gloucestershire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Welwyn Hatfield - Conservatives loss to no overall control
There was good news for Rishi Sunak on the Today programme this morning; he was slagged off by a former Tory MEP.
The ex-MEP was David Campbell Bannerman, who was once a Ukip deputy leader and who is now chair of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, which campaigns for more grassroots democracy in the party but which is also widely seen as the ‘Bring back Boris Johnson’ campaign... Guardian
Remarkable comments on Sky News from a financial expert when asked about why UK bank shares were not under pressure in the way that bank shares are in the US. Before you start to feel smug...........
His point was that UK banks are now more akin to building societies since the bulk of their lending is on domestic mortgages (I guess we knew that). What was more disturbing was his claim that these were basically risk-free assets since you had things like the mortgage guarantee scheme and implicit acceptance that the government won't allow house prices to fall. The taxpayer will be on the hook. So if you wonder why we have a load of expensive houses and a lack of dynamic companies in the UK economy there you go!
I cannot understand why we see this problem as so insoluble. If earnings rise by 5% a year and house prices are stagnant the ratio of earnings to prices comes down quite quickly.
Uk (and European) banks have *much* stronger balance sheets than in the US. Uk among the best in Europe
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
The tories have come late to identity politics but now they are really fucking into it.
Remarkable comments on Sky News from a financial expert when asked about why UK bank shares were not under pressure in the way that bank shares are in the US. Before you start to feel smug...........
His point was that UK banks are now more akin to building societies since the bulk of their lending is on domestic mortgages (I guess we knew that). What was more disturbing was his claim that these were basically risk-free assets since you had things like the mortgage guarantee scheme and implicit acceptance that the government won't allow house prices to fall. The taxpayer will be on the hook. So if you wonder why we have a load of expensive houses and a lack of dynamic companies in the UK economy there you go!
I cannot understand why we see this problem as so insoluble. If earnings rise by 5% a year and house prices are stagnant the ratio of earnings to prices comes down quite quickly.
The correct answer is ring fencing thanks to George Osborne and Martin Vickers.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
Ignoring the politics, and indeed the humanity, it does seem to me that children and even some adults have recently become cavalier about wandering into the road.
We used, in the 40’s and 50’s, to be able to play cricket in our suburban street.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
So change the national speed limit down.
My objection locally is based on too frequent changes of limit 60 >40 >30 >20>30 >20 etc/ Far better to be more consistent.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
The tories have come late to identity politics but now they are really fucking into it.
About 170 years ago for Disraeli or 44 years ago for Thatcher…
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
Never need apologies for genuine tips on here. Far rather someone gives their clear opinion than a leading expert suggesting the future is uncertain and thinking they are adding something to the debate.
It is of course up to each of us to decide whether we want to follow a view/tip or not. Sometimes it will even provoke a bet in the opposite direction when we disagree with the premise.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
It didn't always used to be like this, but its as if the pendulum swings have become wilder in the last few decades.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
So change the national speed limit down.
My objection locally is based on too frequent changes of limit 60 >40 >30 >20>30 >20 etc/ Far better to be more consistent.
Just make the limit 20mph in residential areas nationwide, yes I agree. I'd also raise the limit to 80mph on motorways.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
Boasting about the 3 women PMs overlooks how cruelty and prematurely you butchered their Premierships.
Is that against the rules or just logistically challenging?
You can qualify by being on the electoral roll or by residence, employment or property ownership in the council area, and I think "being a sitting councillor" is acceptable as sufficient employment.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
You see no evidence that Britain is back in the 70s?
- apart from the endless strikes, the rampant inflation, the energy crises, the militant unions, the sluggish growth, the sense of malaise, the sense of decline, the shuttering cities, the arguments over Europe, the arguments over Scotland, the nuclear threat and the Cold War with Russia yes there’s no comparison at all
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
So change the national speed limit down.
My objection locally is based on too frequent changes of limit 60 >40 >30 >20>30 >20 etc/ Far better to be more consistent.
Just make the limit 20mph in residential areas nationwide, yes I agree. I'd also raise the limit to 80mph on motorways.
Only to 80 mph in the appropriate weather. If wet, icy, foggy then 70 applies.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
So change the national speed limit down.
My objection locally is based on too frequent changes of limit 60 >40 >30 >20>30 >20 etc/ Far better to be more consistent.
Just make the limit 20mph in residential areas nationwide, yes I agree. I'd also raise the limit to 80mph on motorways.
I wonder how much more acceptance there would be of 20mph from 7am-7pm and 30mph from 7pm-7am than just 20mph. It would make a difference to me.
I would also be more comfortable with 20mph if it were policed by humans rather than speed cameras as think they would take into account context not to mention people ignoring the speed limit for 95% of their journey and slowing down only for the cameras.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
Boasting about the 3 women PMs overlooks how cruelty and prematurely you butchered their Premierships.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
Ignoring the politics, and indeed the humanity, it does seem to me that children and even some adults have recently become cavalier about wandering into the road.
We used, in the 40’s and 50’s, to be able to play cricket in our suburban street.
We did that in the 60s! That lamppost just behind the blue car was our wicket :-)
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
An incoming government is going to be able to use "the mess left by the last Conservative government" for quite a while.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
An incoming government is going to be able to use "the mess left by the last Conservative government" for quite a while.
...for at least 13 years if they follow the Tory playbook.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
If you've got an SUV you're making a major contribution to enforcing a 20mph limit anyway. They're so wide that on most of the roads round here there's no way that traffic behind can get by on the inside of any SUV waiting to turn right. In fact, 20mph would be good. It's more like gridlock when the school run is on.
Watching @MoonRabbit on this thread last night shamelessly spinning for the Tories then trying to hide her complete failure as an analyst by breathless takes in the opposite direction was classic PB
You have absolutely no idea what an honest psephologist goes through on a night like this.
Like you can explain why there is a difference between the NEV and PNS wider than the Millennium Footbridge? Go on, let’s hear it, and also what it means to the commentary. You are just selecting what you like and spinning like a top.
Don't give up the day job would be my advice – although it provides excellent entertainment – reading back your waspish comments to the PB Lefties at around midnight last night is pure comedy gold!
At first, just like last year, there’s a lot of Labour strongholds reporting that don’t ever have Tory, and here it might be hard for Labour to get up a head of steam to match the polling since the Truss Debacle. And here Lib Dem’s and Greens were taking some with large swings from Labour, so it was hard at first to see a bigger picture for the night with that going on. At same time there was a lot of old days brexit unwinding, last time there was UKIP standing getting 30% etc, so the new result had little changing hands, how did the fact the Tory vote wasn’t going down there fit in with the bigger picture of the promised shellacking etc. with more results it was clear this wasn’t the same as previous years, Labour really we’re having increasingly fun night.
You can’t just waltz in here with a good nights sleep and benefit of hindsight, saying this that was wrong and deliberately waspish. You have no respect for the craft if how these things organically evolve, whilst we are divining like crazy for an honest bigger picture.
Not exactly a positive list for the tories so far...
Odd phrasing. Changing it to be consistent gives us:
Which councils have changed hands so far? With just under half of the local election results declared, here's a list of the councils that have changed hands so far:
Brentwood - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Tamworth - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Plymouth - no overall control loss to Labour
North West Leicestershire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Hertsmere - Conservatives loss to no overall control
East Lindsay - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Stoke-on-Trent - no overall control loss to Labour
Boston - no overall control loss to Independent
Windsor & Maidenhead - Conservatives loss to Lib Dem
Medway - Conservatives loss to Labour
South Kesteven - Conservatives loss to no overall control
East Hertfordshire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
South Gloucestershire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Welwyn Hatfield - Conservatives loss to no overall control
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Results for Labour in the rest of the West Midlands region have been pretty good so far in the context of the GE. Walsall is the only one that deserves to be called bad. I expect Wolverhampton to be relatively poor because of local issues - the state of the City centre.
I don't know what the issue is in Solihull, but the Conservatives are hammering the Greens.
A big difference from the mid 90's is that the Conservatives were completely wiped out in urban England by 1997 (apart from four London boroughs). Even after today, the Conservatives will still have quite a big councillor base there.
I’ve followed this, from a safe distance. I only know what what’s been posted on Twitter and don’t have any inside info, unfortunately, but…
The greens somewhat self destructed over sexual harassment allegations against a prominent green councillor by a green trans activist. It was briefly all over Twitter. Lots of bad blood followed, bullying, threats of legal action etc etc. Key green councillors just walked away.
Solihull greens were always on the fringes of the green movement, ideologically. Pro hs2, fiscally sensible, somewhat socially conservative. Several ex-LD’s.
It’s impressive what they did since 2010, particularly in the north of the borough, but times have moved on.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
Well in two out of three of those cases it was more down the Opposition (Labour) taking itself into the political wilderness by spinning off into the outer reaches of hard socialist purity.
The other one (the Tories in 1997) it was down to a unique combination of the electorate putting them into the wilderness by absolutely obliterating them in the election itself, a succession of dud leaders and the Blair factor.
I think Con will have everything to play for at the point they leave office as I don't think the defeat will be anything like 97 and Starmer will be elected without much enthusiasm... but whether they can get back within one term will rather depend on how they adapt to defeat and to Opposition.
If they go to the extremes an elect someone like Sue-Ellen or Liz comes back for another go round then a decade in the wilderness awaits....
Personally, I've always thought the next election will be like 1974 and the next Parliament will be like the 74-79 Parliament resulting in a one term Labour government driven by splits and crisis but we'll see...
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
I'm hoping that in a year or so's time we'll se the first woman Chancellor.
Remarkable comments on Sky News from a financial expert when asked about why UK bank shares were not under pressure in the way that bank shares are in the US. Before you start to feel smug...........
His point was that UK banks are now more akin to building societies since the bulk of their lending is on domestic mortgages (I guess we knew that). What was more disturbing was his claim that these were basically risk-free assets since you had things like the mortgage guarantee scheme and implicit acceptance that the government won't allow house prices to fall. The taxpayer will be on the hook. So if you wonder why we have a load of expensive houses and a lack of dynamic companies in the UK economy there you go!
I cannot understand why we see this problem as so insoluble. If earnings rise by 5% a year and house prices are stagnant the ratio of earnings to prices comes down quite quickly.
If earnings rise by 5% a year then as the countries largest employer the government has little money to bung their client votes.
Most people work in the private sector. Such rises in the private sector does mean the government needs to pay public sector workers more to compete but it's hardly a bad thing overall for earnings to rise.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
Boasting about the 3 women PMs overlooks how cruelty and prematurely you butchered their Premierships.
I know - Thatcher was just getting going...
Perhaps Lady Thatcher had been there a while, but maybe she has earned the right to defend her landslide and go on her own terms after, after everything she had done for party and country.
The other two definitely had a rough humiliating time from their own Conservative Party.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
There are too many imponderables to say that
AI is just one of them. But a big one. By the late 2020s we could see huge unemployment and economic turmoil across the advanced world
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
An incoming government is going to be able to use "the mess left by the last Conservative government" for quite a while.
Any government can and does. But we certainly have problems. Horrendous balance of payments, significant net debt, high taxes to fund it and modest growth.
I am not sure I agree with @Leon though. The 60s and 70s generally had reasonable growth as the financial constraints of WW2 slipped away. And Russia is nothing like the threat it was then.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
I notice you omitted
- Most ineffectual and tone-deaf PM - Most dishonest PM - Most incompetent PM
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
The trigger seems to have been a relatively recent decision to extend deadlines for water companies to hit clean-up targets.
Yep I don't blame the opposition for jumping on this and making capital out of it but I kind of expect better of the PB conclave.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
The trigger seems to have been a relatively recent decision to extend deadlines for water companies to hit clean-up targets.
Yep I don't blame the opposition for jumping on this and making capital out of it but I kind of expect better of the PB conclave.
It was the Tories voting to overturn the Lords ammendment to clean up the rivers that made it an issue.
Tories loosened rules via Brexit "freedoms" in order to pay shareholders rather than fix infrastructure is the meme.
Most of the "shareholders" are the pension schemes that doubtless a large number of people on here are benefitting/will benefit from.
Perhaps the wastrels and moaners who take early retirement should take one less holiday a year and give it to a river charity to redress the balance of their greed?
Most of our water companies are overseas owned aren't they? Hence the dividends go there?
Last time I looked they were PLCs. Pension funds like utility companies. Utility greed= pensioner greed
According to these good people:-
The English water companies are more than 90% owned by shareholders abroad, for example:
• Wessex Water is 100% owned by a Malaysian company, YTL • Northumbrian Water is owned by Hong Kong businessman Li Ka Shing • Thames Water is partly owned by investors from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, China and Australia
Nothing like a bit of selective argument. Interesting though, thank you. My point still holds though. A large amount of whingers about private company dividends are people sitting on big fat pensions. Pure hypocrisy.
How is it hypocrisy to argue for tougher regulation of water companies, whether or not your pension fund (if you have one) holds shares in them ?
That's the most stupid argument I've heard today.
It wasn't my argument. It was an observation that many who bleat on about the outrageous situation of utilities issuing dividends are often the same economically inactive folk who laze around while sitting on massive pensions. Not that hard to follow really is it Einstein? I guess may apply to you?
And on that note I will wish you adieu as I would like to do some work and have already spent far too much time on here. Fun though it is. See you all soon
Yeah , hopefully not too soon, bored to tears with your mince.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
Well in two out of three of those cases it was more down the Opposition (Labour) taking itself into the political wilderness by spinning off into the outer reaches of hard socialist purity.
The other one (the Tories in 1997) it was down to a unique combination of the electorate putting them into the wilderness by absolutely obliterating them in the election itself, a succession of dud leaders and the Blair factor.
I think Con will have everything to play for at the point they leave office as I don't think the defeat will be anything like 97 and Starmer will be elected without much enthusiasm... but whether they can get back within one term will rather depend on how they adapt to defeat and to Opposition.
If they go to the extremes an elect someone like Sue-Ellen or Liz comes back for another go round then a decade in the wilderness awaits....
In all three cases the party going into opposition shifted away from the centre and selected a dud leader (or 2 or 3).
I can well see the Tories doing that if they lose the next GE; indeed it is hard to see how they can avoid it.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
Penny can probably make a decent fist of getting them back to being more centrist. But I don’t think she’ll get it.
It’ll be Badenoch vs Braverman IMHO. The latter spells disaster. The former likely has some upsides - Kemi is an impressive performer - but I suspect not enough to drag them back to electability in one term. But that’s just my two penneth.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
So change the national speed limit down.
My objection locally is based on too frequent changes of limit 60 >40 >30 >20>30 >20 etc/ Far better to be more consistent.
Just make the limit 20mph in residential areas nationwide, yes I agree. I'd also raise the limit to 80mph on motorways.
I wonder how much more acceptance there would be of 20mph from 7am-7pm and 30mph from 7pm-7am than just 20mph. It would make a difference to me.
I would also be more comfortable with 20mph if it were policed by humans rather than speed cameras as think they would take into account context not to mention people ignoring the speed limit for 95% of their journey and slowing down only for the cameras.
Given accidents are more common in the hours of darkness, I don't see any wisdom in that. Just make it 20mph in residential areas, nationwide.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
Swap the party names and you could have written that in 2019. It is truly astonishing how much the parties fortunes have changed since then. I find it remarkable that Starmer gets so little credit on here considering that.
What do Medway, Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent have in common?
They’re all areas that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016, but they’ve all returned Labour councils overnight... BBC
There seem to be some odd results going on and it also looks like local factors are playing a significant part in some results. Someone on here said a lot of the Plymouth issue may be down to the felling of trees. The Lib Dems have been taking seats from the Tories but lost a bunch in North Norfolk and didn't win East Cambs, which some are suggesting was due to the parking issues in Cambridge.
There is no doubt the results have been crap for the Conservatives but Labour is not knocking it out of the park. Places like the West Midlands do not look great at all.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
If you've got an SUV you're making a major contribution to enforcing a 20mph limit anyway. They're so wide that on most of the roads round here there's no way that traffic behind can get by on the inside of any SUV waiting to turn right. In fact, 20mph would be good. It's more like gridlock when the school run is on.
In fairness, I don't drive it much in town anyway – I get the bus or tube as it's much easier and I don't need to worry about parking. And I certainly don't use it for any 'school run' – he bikes to school, as more children should.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Can you put your finger on why West Midlands, some of the poorest parliamentary constituency’s in the country, are siding with Sunak against Starmer, after being made mugs by the Tories these recent years? Do you have a straight answer?
I’m bleating on about this, and honestly asking you for your answer, because of what I believe in the role psychology and sociology plays in psephology, it being not just about counting pebbles.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
Boasting about the 3 women PMs overlooks how cruelty and prematurely you butchered their Premierships.
I’m not a Tory… it would be undiplomatic…
But, purely objectively, May had failed on her own terms. And Liz…. 😂
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
Was Liz Truss black?
Only her heart…
This is a scenario where Kemi beats a failed Starmer
Lab gain in Town Centre and LD gain in Swinley Forest.
Looks like the LD-Lab pact will make the difference as both were fairly narrow
I think one of the consequences of these LEs will be a clear demonstration that local (informal) Lab/LD pacts really help both parties. Hopefully there will also be a few example of local parties fighting tooth-and-nail to the disadvantage of both to help sharpen the mind.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
There are too many imponderables to say that
AI is just one of them. But a big one. By the late 2020s we could see huge unemployment and economic turmoil across the advanced world
I think the bigger problem with AI is its ability to create very believable false stories* - much more convincing that QAnon.
It will harm humans by persuading significant numbers to take up arms and revolt.
* A small example. My daughter asked ChatGBT to calculate the sum of all the integers from 1 to 100. It replied, correctly, 5,050. No replied my daughter. It is 10,100 (she'd forgotten to divide by 2). Sorry replied ChatGBT. You are correct. I must have added all the odd numbers between 1 and 100. That is a convincing justification. It seems to take as truth what a human tells it and can then justify it.
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
Ballistic is an easier problem than air launched, though, for detection, calculation of trajectory for intercept, and time available for those tasks. Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
Once Kh-47 is launched, the rocket motor burns out rapidly. After that it is ballistic. It may or may not be able to minor course corrections for accuracy.
The real “Hypersonic is a game changer” thing is about ram jets, sustained thrust and manoeuvring at those speeds.
As to the version of Patriot - missiles, radar etc - that will be closely held
Oh dear, I have just looked at the weather forecast for tomorrow. It looks like Diana's tears will rain on Charles's parade.
I am hoping fervently for torrential rain over all of London for many many hours Saturday.
It rained for his Mum’s coronation; people still lined the route. I was selling programmes in Regent St. Sold out. I wouldn’t do it now! Couldn’t anyway; housebound.
Commiserations OKC , hopefully things are improving for you health wise. I doubt you would be wanting to camp out for days for it in any event.
Thanks Malc. No way would I have camped out then, and certainly not now..
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Although…
Tories
- first 3 women PMs - First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated) - First Asian PM - First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
I notice you omitted
- Most ineffectual and tone-deaf PM - Most dishonest PM - Most incompetent PM
- Campbell-Bannerman was a Liberal - Walpole was a Whig - North… a Tory (I think)
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Can you put your finger on why West Midlands, some of the poorest parliamentary constituency’s in the country, are siding with Sunak against Starmer, after being made mugs by the Tories these recent years? Do you have a straight answer?
I’m bleating on about this, and honestly asking you for your answer, because of what I believe in the role psychology and sociology plays in psephology, it being not just about counting pebbles.
It’s not the whole West Midlands, it’s the Black Country, which is very distinct. My guess is home ownership and the age demographic will explain a lot.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
There are too many imponderables to say that
AI is just one of them. But a big one. By the late 2020s we could see huge unemployment and economic turmoil across the advanced world
I think the bigger problem with AI is its ability to create very believable false stories* - much more convincing that QAnon.
It will harm humans by persuading significant numbers to take up arms and revolt.
* A small example. My daughter asked ChatGBT to calculate the sum of all the integers from 1 to 100. It replied, correctly, 5,050. No replied my daughter. It is 10,100 (she'd forgotten to divide by 2). Sorry replied ChatGBT. You are correct. I must have added all the odd numbers between 1 and 100. That is a convincing justification. It seems to take as truth what a human tells it and can then justify it.
Deepfakery and AI hallucination and the end of provable truth are indeed yet more ramifications of AI that will upend the world
We have never faced anything like this as a species So predicting 5 years down the line is virtually pointless
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Can you put your finger on why West Midlands, some of the poorest parliamentary constituency’s in the country, are siding with Sunak against Starmer, after being made mugs by the Tories these recent years? Do you have a straight answer?
I’m bleating on about this, and honestly asking you for your answer, because of what I believe in the role psychology and sociology plays in psephology, it being not just about counting pebbles.
I can’t explain it. There are various explanations, none of them particularly convincing to me. WM was a fair bit more pro-Boris, throughout his premiership, compared to the rest of the country. It continues with Sunak.
Very odd.
Maybe it’s as simple as labour are locally hopeless and the tories better organised? Or people in the WM are just more credulous and easily manipulated into voting against their own interests?
HYUFD will be pleased. The Conservatives easily held Epping Forest, with just one loss. The Conservatives have been doing really rather well in Essex, this time.
There will still be some awful Conservative results to come, but I think the losses will be around 800, rather than 1,000 +.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
HYUFD will be pleased. The Conservatives easily held Epping Forest, with just one loss. The Conservatives have been doing really rather well in Essex, this time.
There will still be some awful Conservative results to come, but I think the losses will be around 800, rather than 1,000 +.
As far as I can google, he held his seat – although not clear whether it was up for election this time.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Can you put your finger on why West Midlands, some of the poorest parliamentary constituency’s in the country, are siding with Sunak against Starmer, after being made mugs by the Tories these recent years? Do you have a straight answer?
I’m bleating on about this, and honestly asking you for your answer, because of what I believe in the role psychology and sociology plays in psephology, it being not just about counting pebbles.
I can’t explain it. There are various explanations, none of them particularly convincing to me. WM was a fair bit more pro-Boris, throughout his premiership, compared to the rest of the country. It continues with Sunak.
Very odd.
Maybe it’s as simple as labour are locally hopeless and the tories better organised? Or people in the WM are just more credulous and easily manipulated into voting against their own interests?
It’s genuinely puzzling.
Who was previously in power - if Labour have been in power locally while things are falling apart they will be being blamed even though all the issues really come from central Government.
That was why a number of Labour councils turned Tory in 2019 - we are still to see if they remain Tory in 2023 or whether the Tory administration loses power because of the lack of local spending that central government has forced upon them.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
I disagree.
She’s smarter than the usual Tory nut-jobs, and came across as more genuine too during the last leadership contest.
I do expect her to become leader after 2024, and I’m looking forward to it in terms of the challenge posed to Starmer.
Interesting narrative from The Thrash – Labour could command a majority with Scots revival (but we don't have any numbers from Scotland because the Celtic nations aren't voting)
Comments
They’re all areas that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016, but they’ve all returned Labour councils overnight...
BBC
Tories
- first 3 women PMs
- First Jewish PM (Disraeli - debated)
- First Asian PM
- First black PM
Labour
- middle class white men
😂
It’s all been downhill since 2015, admittedly. The elephant in the room here being that this spelled the end of the coalition….
Lab 19 seats
LibDems 8
Greens 2
Independent (Corbynate) 1
34 seats to declare in the afternoon
Which councils have changed hands so far?
With just under half of the local election results declared, here's a list of the councils that have changed hands so far:
The ex-MEP was David Campbell Bannerman, who was once a Ukip deputy leader and who is now chair of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, which campaigns for more grassroots democracy in the party but which is also widely seen as the ‘Bring back Boris Johnson’ campaign...
Guardian
My objection locally is based on too frequent changes of limit 60 >40 >30 >20>30 >20 etc/ Far better to be more consistent.
It is of course up to each of us to decide whether we want to follow a view/tip or not. Sometimes it will even provoke a bet in the opposite direction when we disagree with the premise.
Pass the binoculars.
So it's allowed, but strange.
- apart from the endless strikes, the rampant inflation, the energy crises, the militant unions, the sluggish growth, the sense of malaise, the sense of decline, the shuttering cities, the arguments over Europe, the arguments over Scotland, the nuclear threat and the Cold War with Russia yes there’s no comparison at all
I would also be more comfortable with 20mph if it were policed by humans rather than speed cameras as think they would take into account context not to mention people ignoring the speed limit for 95% of their journey and slowing down only for the cameras.
You can’t just waltz in here with a good nights sleep and benefit of hindsight, saying this that was wrong and deliberately waspish. You have no respect for the craft if how these things organically evolve, whilst we are divining like crazy for an honest bigger picture.
Seat changes
Lab +148
Con -266
LD +66
Ind +18
Green +42
Residents -1
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
The greens somewhat self destructed over sexual harassment allegations against a prominent green councillor by a green trans activist. It was briefly all over Twitter. Lots of bad blood followed, bullying, threats of legal action etc etc. Key green councillors just walked away.
Solihull greens were always on the fringes of the green movement, ideologically. Pro hs2, fiscally sensible, somewhat socially conservative. Several ex-LD’s.
It’s impressive what they did since 2010, particularly in the north of the borough, but times have moved on.
Well in two out of three of those cases it was more down the Opposition (Labour) taking itself into the political wilderness by spinning off into the outer reaches of hard socialist purity.
The other one (the Tories in 1997) it was down to a unique combination of the electorate putting them into the wilderness by absolutely obliterating them in the election itself, a succession of dud leaders and the Blair factor.
I think Con will have everything to play for at the point they leave office as I don't think the defeat will be anything like 97 and Starmer will be elected without much enthusiasm... but whether they can get back within one term will rather depend on how they adapt to defeat and to Opposition.
If they go to the extremes an elect someone like Sue-Ellen or Liz comes back for another go
round then a decade in the wilderness awaits....
Personally, I've always thought the next election will be like 1974 and the next Parliament will be like the 74-79 Parliament resulting in a one term Labour government driven by splits and crisis but we'll see...
Lab gain in Town Centre and LD gain in Swinley Forest.
Looks like the LD-Lab pact will make the difference as both were fairly narrow
The other two definitely had a rough humiliating time from their own Conservative Party.
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/daily-star-front-page-2023-05-05/
AI is just one of them. But a big one. By the late 2020s we could see huge unemployment and economic turmoil across the advanced world
I am not sure I agree with @Leon though. The 60s and 70s generally had reasonable growth as the financial constraints of WW2 slipped away. And Russia is nothing like the threat it was then.
- Most ineffectual and tone-deaf PM
- Most dishonest PM
- Most incompetent PM
I can well see the Tories doing that if they lose the next GE; indeed it is hard to see how they can avoid it.
It’ll be Badenoch vs Braverman IMHO. The latter spells disaster. The former likely has some upsides - Kemi is an impressive performer - but I suspect not enough to drag them back to electability in one term. But that’s just my two penneth.
There is no doubt the results have been crap for the Conservatives but Labour is not knocking it out of the park. Places like the West Midlands do not look great at all.
I’m bleating on about this, and honestly asking you for your answer, because of what I believe in the role psychology and sociology plays in psephology, it being not just about counting pebbles.
But, purely objectively, May had failed on her own terms. And Liz…. 😂
And still the durian sellers will hawk their luscious spiny fruit, that smells of sewers
This is a scenario where Kemi beats a failed Starmer
It will harm humans by persuading significant numbers to take up arms and revolt.
* A small example. My daughter asked ChatGBT to calculate the sum of all the integers from 1 to 100. It replied, correctly, 5,050. No replied my daughter. It is 10,100 (she'd forgotten to divide by 2). Sorry replied ChatGBT. You are correct. I must have added all the odd numbers between 1 and 100.
That is a convincing justification. It seems to take as truth what a human tells it and can then justify it.
The real “Hypersonic is a game changer” thing is about ram jets, sustained thrust and manoeuvring at those speeds.
As to the version of Patriot - missiles, radar etc - that will be closely held
Works for me!
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
- Walpole was a Whig
- North… a Tory (I think)
https://discoverpetworth.uk
We have never faced anything like this as a species So predicting 5 years down the line is virtually pointless
As they say:
Brace
Very odd.
Maybe it’s as simple as labour are locally hopeless and the tories better organised? Or people in the WM are just more credulous and easily manipulated into voting against their own interests?
It’s genuinely puzzling.
Is.
Time.
There will still be some awful Conservative results to come, but I think the losses will be around 800, rather than 1,000 +.
Congratulations to him @HYUFD anyway.
That was why a number of Labour councils turned Tory in 2019 - we are still to see if they remain Tory in 2023 or whether the Tory administration loses power because of the lack of local spending that central government has forced upon them.
I like to lead, not follow.
She’s smarter than the usual Tory nut-jobs, and came across as more genuine too during the last leadership contest.
I do expect her to become leader after 2024, and I’m looking forward to it in terms of the challenge posed to Starmer.