"WHO said that even though the emergency phase was over, the pandemic hasn't come to an end, noting recent spikes in cases in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
"The UN health agency says that thousands of people are still dying from the virus every week."
As they will for years or decades (and maybe even centuries) to come.
Stratford-on-Avon District Council in Warwickshire has had a Conservative majority since 2003 but the Liberal Democrats had set their sights on making gains there, with the Tories only narrowly in control.
In the end, the Lib Dems won 15 seats there, while the Tories lost 14, giving the Lib Dems overall control.
It's the first time any other party has had majority control on the council - in the past it's only ever been Tory, independent or a hung council.
Looking at the Bracknell Forest Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/BracknellForest) there seems to be a big story emerging down there with Labour seemingly close to taking the council from the Tories when they only had two seats previously.
I was always surprised that Bracknell wasn't more Labour. When people got enough money they moved to Wokingham. Of course, with all the housebuilding round there there is now less than 400m separating the outskirts (one field and the A329M) so they are pretty much one!
The Tory leader of the council has lost his seat. For those looking at historical precedents the last time the Tories lost Bracknell Forest and the leader lost his seat was...1995.
Now that really is bizarre. Chelmsley Wood was a Labour enclave inherited from Birmingham in 1974, as I recall. It really is a s*******. I can say that as a Silhillian from the town centre end of Lode Lane.
In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
I thought technically the old SDP party merged with the Liberals, for example Cowley Street the old SDP headquarters became the new headquarters of the Liberal Democrats, so that the "continuing" SDP (tick) was actually a new party. So not the same party legally.
A bit like Sinn Fein, then
No no no
That’s Republican Sinn Fein
Which is completely different to the republicans in Sinn Fein
Who are completely different to the 32 County Sovereignty Movement
Who are utterly nothing to do with Saoradh
They are all splitters, of course.
Official SF are now the Workers' Party, the Provos are the *real* splitters, after the Ard Fheis in 1970!
I’m thinking of starting the Republican Fundamentalist Unionist Unitarian Monarchist movement.
The idea is that our beliefs will be multiple wave functions that collapse into any state held by the observer.
C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
Go on then......
Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.
I can’t see that happening.
I don't know. 99 registered in each tower block flat could add up to quite a lot.
Remember that there's no precaution whatsoever against election fraud where postal votes are concerned, in contrast to the barbed wire, police dogs and machine gun nests arrayed against innocent citizens attempting to vote in person without the correct kind of photo ID.
Now that really is bizarre. Chelmsley Wood was a Labour enclave inherited from Birmingham in 1974, as I recall. It really is a s*******. I can say that as a Silhillian from the town centre end of Lode Lane.
Self-imposed disenfranchisement perhaps.
It's always been a very weird area in terms of politics. The same seat would swing from the Greens to the BNP to Labour to Tories.
The esteemed @BritainElects piloted a YouTube stream last night, streaming results live. It was very dull because it was silent. He realised this and filled in the soundtrack with an eclectic mix of tracks. I had nothing better to do so from 1;20am to 2:20am I commented o each track in a sarcastic and cynical manner. Bad me. But if anybody wants the names and songs, here they are. Some cases (eg "Annihilation") are my closest approximation instead of the real thing.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
Go on then......
Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.
I can’t see that happening.
I don't know. 99 registered in each tower block flat could add up to quite a lot.
Remember that there's no precaution whatsoever against election fraud where postal votes are concerned, in contrast to the barbed wire, police dogs and machine gun nests arrayed against innocent citizens attempting to vote in person without the correct kind of photo ID.
It's only reasonable that poll workers take precautions, since we learned yesterday of bears being brought into polling stations.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
C’mon, everyone knows the very much seen horizon is ranting on an obscure political website forum.
I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
It's still close enough for that cigar! Throw in Wales and now Scotland and we might exceed the ten point lead for GB, that was called as the required baseline number.
Disappointment for Lab in Darlington. Gains by the Greens meant they fell just short of a majority. Still, in parliamentary terms it’s a bellwether red wall seat, so they’d really have wanted to bag it.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
The 2019 PNS was 28, 28, 19. So Lab +7, Con -2, LD +1
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
We are just halfway through and they're already on 230.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
It's still close enough for that cigar! Throw in Wales and now Scotland and we might exceed the ten point lead for GB, that was called as the required baseline number.
Doesn't PNS already account for the parts of the country that aren't voting?
Labour gained eight seats on Swindon council. Looking at it, by convincing leads too.
Can Labour now take both Westminster seats? The maths looks challenging looking at the majorities.
The Tory vote did not collapse in all the seats, so holding one seems viable.
But in fact it will be three by the next election and one will have rural hinterland.
Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
I cannot show from my phone but basically 3 wards of Swindon are being joined with a huge tranche of rural wiltshire down towards salisbury. They include a ward which went narrowly LD, one moderately Lab and one not voting which is Conservative. That parliament seat will be Con.
Of the other two the South seat on today's result should be a comfy gain. Most went Labour fairly easily.
The North seat had some closish results but purely on today also looks good for a Lab gain.
It looks like the boundary changes make Swindon South a little more marginal so less than the 13% CON majority mentioned earlier.
Also, I believe Heidi Alexander is standing for LAB. She has previously been an MP in London and is a good candidate. So maybe a LAB gain after all!
Thanks - didn't know that. Yes, she's a good candidate, and she's from Swindon so can't be accused of being parachuted in. She'll win.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
I can remember when the Khlongs of Bangkok ran with eels. Seriously
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
“Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
From the very first Tweet in the thread, the one you linked to: "you are flooding the country with legal migration" is pretty racist. And note, its legal migration he's objecting to.
But you can't see it, because you are yourself a racist.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
“Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
From the very first Tweet in the thread, the one you linked to: "you are flooding the country with legal migration" is pretty racist. And note, its legal migration he's objecting to.
But you can't see it, because you are yourself a racist.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
“Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
From the very first Tweet in the thread, the one you linked to: "you are flooding the country with legal migration" is pretty racist. And note, its legal migration he's objecting to.
But you can't see it, because you are yourself a racist.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
“Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
From the very first Tweet in the thread, the one you linked to: "you are flooding the country with legal migration" is pretty racist. And note, its legal migration he's objecting to.
But you can't see it, because you are yourself a racist.
C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
Go on then......
Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.
I can’t see that happening.
I don't know. 99 registered in each tower block flat could add up to quite a lot.
Remember that there's no precaution whatsoever against election fraud where postal votes are concerned, in contrast to the barbed wire, police dogs and machine gun nests arrayed against innocent citizens attempting to vote in person without the correct kind of photo ID.
It's only reasonable that poll workers take precautions, since we learned yesterday of bears being brought into polling stations.
(Dogs, of course, remain prohibited.)
That's fair, of course. But only provided they take similar precautions against bears being enclosed in envelopes containing postal votes.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
It's still close enough for that cigar! Throw in Wales and now Scotland and we might exceed the ten point lead for GB, that was called as the required baseline number.
Doesn't PNS already account for the parts of the country that aren't voting?
Maybe. I was assuming an England only extrapolation as there are no Welsh and Scottish votes cast. I will bow to your greater knowledge.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
I can remember when the Khlongs of Bangkok ran with eels. Seriously
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
The esteemed @BritainElects piloted a YouTube stream last night, streaming results live. It was very dull because it was silent. He realised this and filled in the soundtrack with an eclectic mix of tracks. I had nothing better to do so from 1;20am to 2:20am I commented o each track in a sarcastic and cynical manner. Bad me. But if anybody wants the names and songs, here they are. Some cases (eg "Annihilation") are my closest approximation instead of the real thing.
The Labour victory in Bracknell is pretty spectacular.
I think I remember reading that there was some form of Lib-Lab pact in Bracknell where they didn't both stand in all areas. Seems to have been very effective!
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
“Hardcore”?
You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration
Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
Apparently wrong
“the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”
And there's the problem.
People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.
People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.
So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
It could try getting a grip on the future.
If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
Jobs for the robots you siliconphobe you
I don't even understand what you're getting at. If you can't express yourself more clearer, you may fail a Turing test. (Not that I'm implying that I would be prejudiced against you whatsoever if you were a differently biologicised intelligence.)
AI version of "Jobs for the Boys" from the old days when unions ran the UK
In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
No, it's not.
clears throat... I believe the first Social Democratic Party in the UK was launched in 1979 and stood one candidate at the general election that year, but the SDP we all know (and love?) was founded in 1981 by the Gang of Four, Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and the one everyone forgets (a.k.a. Bill Rodgers, who knew my mum as it happens).
This party legally ceased to exist when it merged with the Liberal Party to form the Liberal Democrats in 1988. All the assets of the SDP transferred to the LibDems. However, three MPs, David Owen, John Cartwright, and Rosie Barnes, objected to the merger. They created what was legally a new and separate Social Democratic Party in 1988. This party legally creased to exist in 1990, the National Executive voting to dissolve the party.
However, a breakaway faction led by Jack Holmes founded yet another SDP in 1990, again legally a new entity. This is the SDP that exists today. So today's SDP is not legally the same as the party of Williams and Jenkins. It is not even the part of Owen. It is a party founded by a minority faction of a party that was founded by a minority faction of the 1981 SDP.
While the original SDP was pro-European (indeed, that was a major impetus for its creation). The 1988 SDP notably shifted to a more Eruo-sceptic position in 1989, a stance adopted also by the 1990 SDP.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
A nice thing about local elections is one gets to learn about rivers one had never heard of before.
I must admit that despite being Staffordshire born and bred, I had never heard of the river Mease, but here is a Wikipedia page with everything anyone could wish to know about it, including a photo of an adorable otter and a slightly less adorable spined loach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Mease
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
I can remember when the Khlongs of Bangkok ran with eels. Seriously
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
Really! I’ve been eating in Bangkok for around a month most years for almost 20 years and I’ve never been offered them.
The Labour victory in Bracknell is pretty spectacular.
I think I remember reading that there was some form of Lib-Lab pact in Bracknell where they didn't both stand in all areas. Seems to have been very effective!
I know it’s a new town, but I’d have thought it would be a Lib Dem area. Sounds like Labour have done well out of that deal.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
But the headline numbers for Con and LD are very encouraging?
Could see the LDs doing serious damage in the blue wall.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
MoE and ID card disenfranchisement easily bumps it up to 12 in my universe.
As we get out to the Shires the Lib Dems are really taking off. This may well be their best set of results since the Coalition.
Or Since the coronation.
And also to remember, this set of elections not at all good for Tories last time, this is all being built on last time. For example, less seat changes doesn’t mean better Conservative result, if the low hanging fruit was picked last time, it’s the harder to pick fruit being harvested here.
C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
Go on then......
Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.
I can’t see that happening.
I don't know. 99 registered in each tower block flat could add up to quite a lot.
Remember that there's no precaution whatsoever against election fraud where postal votes are concerned, in contrast to the barbed wire, police dogs and machine gun nests arrayed against innocent citizens attempting to vote in person without the correct kind of photo ID.
I missed the rioting last night at the polling stations as thousands were turned away.
I think its really odd that the electoral commission felt that voter ID was more important for in person voting without concern for the much more easily abused postal votes. I don't know why they did. I do think that some of the more extreme on here fully subscribing to a Tory vote suppression conspiracy are over the top.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
I can remember when the Khlongs of Bangkok ran with eels. Seriously
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
Pussy.
That is not a gin and tonic. That is a bowl full of ice soon to be water.
The only G&T worth having is gin straight from the freezer, tonic straight from the fridge.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Meanwhile I can't believe that anyone is getting excited - talking to you, Lab supporters - at the LibDems hoovering up votes ahead of a general election when the incumbent is on its knees.
It certainly doesn't presage a Lab victory, it is just a mid-ish term protest vote.
There might of course be a Lab victory but these results don't tell you anything.
Sailed through the Channel Tunnel this morning. Who knew such was even possible?
Well, Tom Cruise managed to get a helicopter through it in Mission Impossible 1, so it's obviously a multi-modal tunnel ...
He wasn't piloting it, it was Jean Reno. Tom Cruise was on a TGV masquerading as a Eurostar train. Obviously.
TBF I was so incensed at the inaccuracy that I've obviously blotted out the details.
(I think it was also the MI film that showed various scenes from London, such as Big Ben, then added the caption 'London')
The "Missions Impossible" you are referencing, are cheap-jack movies (albeit with mega-million budgets & boxoffices) that are crap imitations of the real deal - the classic "Mission Impossible" TV series of the 1960.
In particular the initial seasons featuring Barbara Bain. After she left the show (with Martin Landau) show got lamer and lamer. But still NOT as lame as the movies.
As we get out to the Shires the Lib Dems are really taking off. This may well be their best set of results since the Coalition.
What's most surprising about this is that 2019 was already an excellent year for the LibDems, with a NEV of 19%, and almost as many councillors as Labour.
If there's a takeaway from this for me, it's that the LibDems are benefitting again from tactical voting. Labour supporters are willing to lend their vote to get the Conservatives out. Which should make half a dozen Conservative MPs very nervous indeed.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
But the headline numbers for Con and LD are very encouraging?
Could see the LDs doing serious damage in the blue wall.
A fair few Blue Wall Tory MPs need to be thinking about a life after politics.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
I predicted 10-12, so a bit of a disappointment.
It doesn't feel like a defeat for Labour in the light of a strong showing from LD and Green.
As we get out to the Shires the Lib Dems are really taking off. This may well be their best set of results since the Coalition.
Or Since the coronation.
And also to remember, this set of elections not at all good for Tories last time, this is all being built on last time. For example, less seat changes doesn’t mean better Conservative result, if the low hanging fruit was picked last time, it’s the harder to pick fruit being harvested here.
There has been a tendency for the party in government to have their base hollowed out as a precursor to losing power. I don't think that the loss of a network of local councillors who know and work their area can be underestimated. I was surprised to see a chart yesterday which showed that until now the Tories have been largely immune to this tendency but they do seem to be catching up with it today.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Not sure I see a coalition. The Lib Dems are still scarred from the last time.
Confidence and supply is much more likely. Added into SNP presumably supporting on issue by issue basis, Lucas and the SDLP and you've probably got a decent chance of getting a full term out of that kind of arrangement on anything north of 300 seats.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
I can remember when the Khlongs of Bangkok ran with eels. Seriously
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
Pussy.
That is not a gin and tonic. That is a bowl full of ice soon to be water.
The only G&T worth having is gin straight from the freezer, tonic straight from the fridge.
No ice, no lemon.
Chill the glass before also.
Noooooo, you need lots of ice
But the key is to drink it fairly fast, before the ice fatally dilutes the gin and tonic. It is not a drink to linger over. It is a HIT
Thankfully I have never found the fast drinking of G&Ts to be a challenge
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
As this article explains, historically, a 9 point NEV lead is consistent with a 15% poll lead.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Certainly on these results.
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
A pennant flows? Eyes think? WTF? This is sub-Adrian Mole. But 👍 for not going on any more about wine, the wanker's drink.
As we get out to the Shires the Lib Dems are really taking off. This may well be their best set of results since the Coalition.
What's most surprising about this is that 2019 was already an excellent year for the LibDems, with a NEV of 19%, and almost as many councillors as Labour.
If there's a takeaway from this for me, it's that the LibDems are benefitting again from tactical voting. Labour supporters are willing to lend their vote to get the Conservatives out. Which should make half a dozen Conservative MPs very nervous indeed.
Absolutely. The imperative I found on the doorstep was to get the buggers out. Tactical voting is back. More than half a dozen Tory MPs should be nervous.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Not sure I see a coalition. The Lib Dems are still scarred from the last time.
Confidence and supply is much more likely. Added into SNP presumably supporting on issue by issue basis, Lucas and the SDLP and you've probably got a decent chance of getting a full term out of that kind of arrangement on anything north of 300 seats.
No, you can't rely on constitutional wreckers like the SNP for anything.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
As this article explains, historically, a 9 point NEV lead is consistent with a 15% poll lead.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
It's still close enough for that cigar! Throw in Wales and now Scotland and we might exceed the ten point lead for GB, that was called as the required baseline number.
Doesn't PNS already account for the parts of the country that aren't voting?
Hopefully it's comparing like for like. I don't know.
But in another sense, how can it account for that? How can it account for what's happened in Scotland over the past few weeks, considering that it doesn't include any data from Scotland. How about London, where Labour's polling lead is 40 points? Can one extrapolate from a disproportionately rural electorate to the whole country?
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
I predicted yesterday it would be 9% according to Murphy's/Sod's Law, because the experts say a 10% lead is needed to indicate a majority and Labour said 8%. So it was bound to be between the two, just to be awkward.
Interestingly, throughout the flow of election results, the Conservatives have pretty consistently been losing 27-31% of their seats (currently 28.7%). If we assume that this continues, then they lose (accounting for the fewer number of seats in existence) around 900 seats.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Not sure I see a coalition. The Lib Dems are still scarred from the last time.
Confidence and supply is much more likely. Added into SNP presumably supporting on issue by issue basis, Lucas and the SDLP and you've probably got a decent chance of getting a full term out of that kind of arrangement on anything north of 300 seats.
I agree. As long as Labour has more seats than the Tories, they won't go for a formal coalition with anybody.
They will choose to govern on a confidence and supply basis, hope to do so competently, and as soon as it breaks down call another GE in the hope of sealing the deal properly.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
But the headline numbers for Con and LD are very encouraging?
Could see the LDs doing serious damage in the blue wall.
Yep. Expect some serious tactical anti-tory voting at the GE. Perhaps we will get a Bonsai 1997 affair. The same overall shape of election with everything shrunk and keeping its proportion.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Not sure I see a coalition. The Lib Dems are still scarred from the last time.
Confidence and supply is much more likely. Added into SNP presumably supporting on issue by issue basis, Lucas and the SDLP and you've probably got a decent chance of getting a full term out of that kind of arrangement on anything north of 300 seats.
Possibly. But given this time, their gains will be on the back of Tory switchers, I think they can make the argument about being the moderating influence more effectively next time round. And they’ll surely not repeat the tuition fee fiasco.
So Thrasher suggests on UNS we would have a hung parliament on these results (vote lead of circa 8-10%).
Two factors - one possibly good for Lab, the other less so:
1. There's a very high independent + Lib Dem vote (compared to polling positions). Some of that might go Labour's way in a GE. The other part might manifest itself in tactical voting against the Tories, helping maximise Tory losses and opposition gains.
2. Local election results often overemphasise swings against the current government in times of unpopularity, meaning that in a GE the Tories - might - be able to pull closer.
So despite the unquestionably bad results for the Tories today, it feels like the ball is now back in Starmer's court and how he prepares Labour for government in the next 12-18 months. Still a lot to play for, though I can't see any way the Tories salvage a government out of the next election.
If you are saying we expect swingback, but also expect tactical voting but hard to say what it does, does it cancel out and exceed swing-back, then I absolutely agree.
You say the ball is in Labours court to sell and seal the deal, but it doesn’t leave Tories much leeway either. If Sunak’s financial services compensation scheme goes down like some of these banks are, taking Sunak and governments credibility with it, it hands a majority win to Labour.
The pressure is on the Tories too.
The Tories should get a plurality of the independent/residents vote in a GE.
Most of the Green vote will go Labour or Lib Dem.
That part of the Lib Dem vote which does not stick with the Lib Dem’s probably splits about 2/1 Lab/Con (but varies greatly by area).
In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
No, it's not.
clears throat... I believe the first Social Democratic Party in the UK was launched in 1979 and stood one candidate at the general election that year, but the SDP we all know (and love?) was founded in 1981 by the Gang of Four, Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and the one everyone forgets (a.k.a. Bill Rodgers, who knew my mum as it happens).
This party legally ceased to exist when it merged with the Liberal Party to form the Liberal Democrats in 1988. All the assets of the SDP transferred to the LibDems. However, three MPs, David Owen, John Cartwright, and Rosie Barnes, objected to the merger. They created what was legally a new and separate Social Democratic Party in 1988. This party legally creased to exist in 1990, the National Executive voting to dissolve the party.
However, a breakaway faction led by Jack Holmes founded yet another SDP in 1990, again legally a new entity. This is the SDP that exists today. So today's SDP is not legally the same as the party of Williams and Jenkins. It is not even the part of Owen. It is a party founded by a minority faction of a party that was founded by a minority faction of the 1981 SDP.
While the original SDP was pro-European (indeed, that was a major impetus for its creation). The 1988 SDP notably shifted to a more Eruo-sceptic position in 1989, a stance adopted also by the 1990 SDP.
The remaining Liberal Party is also Euro-sceptic, oddly enough.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
I can remember when the Khlongs of Bangkok ran with eels. Seriously
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
Pussy.
That is not a gin and tonic. That is a bowl full of ice soon to be water.
The only G&T worth having is gin straight from the freezer, tonic straight from the fridge.
No ice, no lemon.
Chill the glass before also.
Almost agree Topping , though I like a slice of lime or lemon
A nice thing about local elections is one gets to learn about rivers one had never heard of before.
I must admit that despite being Staffordshire born and bred, I had never heard of the river Mease, but here is a Wikipedia page with everything anyone could wish to know about it, including a photo of an adorable otter and a slightly less adorable spined loach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Mease
MODERATOR - please take notice of this blatant, wanton example of anti-piscine-ism!
Comments
In the end, the Lib Dems won 15 seats there, while the Tories lost 14, giving the Lib Dems overall control.
It's the first time any other party has had majority control on the council - in the past it's only ever been Tory, independent or a hung council.
Slightly saner Nad is, of course, the local MP.
Lab 35
Con 26
LD 20
Oth 19
Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
+83 for Greens, +98 for LDs at present
Self-imposed disenfranchisement perhaps.
The idea is that our beliefs will be multiple wave functions that collapse into any state held by the observer.
Lib Dems 19 (+9)
Conservative 7 (-9)
Green 3 (+0)
Independent 1 (-1)
Labour 1 (+1)
Lib Dem gain from Conservative
Remember that there's no precaution whatsoever against election fraud where postal votes are concerned, in contrast to the barbed wire, police dogs and machine gun nests arrayed against innocent citizens attempting to vote in person without the correct kind of photo ID.
Tory losses currently 404.
THE BRITAINELECTS MIXTAPE (1:20am to 2:20am)
- Paint it Black by Sebastian Böhm, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPULlTe4VfQ
- If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man) by Bonnie Tyler, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJOo67DtZAY
- D'ye Ken John Peel (Quick March of the Queen's Own Yeomanry) by Royal Regiment of Artillery Band, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT61HYjLBDk
- Ubu by Methyl Ethel, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P56OpE_qDo8
- Last Man Standing by Hammerfall, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOmMZBZGBps
- Stayin' Alive by BeeGees, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNFzfwLM72c
- Here's to you (Nicola and Bart) by Joan Baez, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oday_Fc-Gc
- I wanna make up right now na na by Akon, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIaH35-MLsk
- The Alien by Annihilation OST, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fuz4ZfMX2rk
- 5 Wagon by Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqZZDg_xNjI
- Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke) by CamelPhat & Cristoph, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKRcqtNSP-4
- Sadeness, pt 1 by Enigma, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSUP7p5kj44
- Tank by Action Bronson, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYUs7snDnJE
- Oj Alija aljo by Koridor, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czyvOk1GbsE
- Devil Town by Cavetown, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvaxYUfGHnk
- Moral of the Story by Ashe, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUfaVWw1wb4.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIgSee also: https://nitter.net/BritainElects , https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results , https://www.youtube.com/@britainelects , https://www.youtube.com/@britainelects/streams
Is that the official PNS declaration?
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
Tories on 401 losses
Labour gain 230
LDs gain 109
Green gain 83
Inds lose 12
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
(Dogs, of course, remain prohibited.)
"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Mease Valley (Lichfield) council election result:
LDEM: 56.3% (+10.4)
CON: 43.7% (-10.4)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative."
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1654489803327414276
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
Well said. Pretend irony hardly disguises it
Do they? I think we should be told.
As the 2023 English local elections continue rolling down the tracks . . .
Wabash Cannonball - Boxcar Willie
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2V2P4iGVNyU
Gradually, then suddenly...
clears throat... I believe the first Social Democratic Party in the UK was launched in 1979 and stood one candidate at the general election that year, but the SDP we all know (and love?) was founded in 1981 by the Gang of Four, Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and the one everyone forgets (a.k.a. Bill Rodgers, who knew my mum as it happens).
This party legally ceased to exist when it merged with the Liberal Party to form the Liberal Democrats in 1988. All the assets of the SDP transferred to the LibDems. However, three MPs, David Owen, John Cartwright, and Rosie Barnes, objected to the merger. They created what was legally a new and separate Social Democratic Party in 1988. This party legally creased to exist in 1990, the National Executive voting to dissolve the party.
However, a breakaway faction led by Jack Holmes founded yet another SDP in 1990, again legally a new entity. This is the SDP that exists today. So today's SDP is not legally the same as the party of Williams and Jenkins. It is not even the part of Owen. It is a party founded by a minority faction of a party that was founded by a minority faction of the 1981 SDP.
While the original SDP was pro-European (indeed, that was a major impetus for its creation). The 1988 SDP notably shifted to a more Eruo-sceptic position in 1989, a stance adopted also by the 1990 SDP.
I must admit that despite being Staffordshire born and bred, I had never heard of the river Mease, but here is a Wikipedia page with everything anyone could wish to know about it, including a photo of an adorable otter and a slightly less adorable spined loach:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Mease
Could see the LDs doing serious damage in the blue wall.
And also to remember, this set of elections not at all good for Tories last time, this is all being built on last time. For example, less seat changes doesn’t mean better Conservative result, if the low hanging fruit was picked last time, it’s the harder to pick fruit being harvested here.
I think its really odd that the electoral commission felt that voter ID was more important for in person voting without concern for the much more easily abused postal votes. I don't know why they did. I do think that some of the more extreme on here fully subscribing to a Tory vote suppression conspiracy are over the top.
I also note its been in use in NI for years.
That is not a gin and tonic. That is a bowl full of ice soon to be water.
The only G&T worth having is gin straight from the freezer, tonic straight from the fridge.
No ice, no lemon.
Chill the glass before also.
Bracknell Forest LOL.
2019 c28 l28 ld19 o25
2023 c26 l35 ld20 o19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000044
It certainly doesn't presage a Lab victory, it is just a mid-ish term protest vote.
There might of course be a Lab victory but these results don't tell you anything.
In particular the initial seasons featuring Barbara Bain. After she left the show (with Martin Landau) show got lamer and lamer. But still NOT as lame as the movies.
If there's a takeaway from this for me, it's that the LibDems are benefitting again from tactical voting. Labour supporters are willing to lend their vote to get the Conservatives out. Which should make half a dozen Conservative MPs very nervous indeed.
Confidence and supply is much more likely. Added into SNP presumably supporting on issue by issue basis, Lucas and the SDLP and you've probably got a decent chance of getting a full term out of that kind of arrangement on anything north of 300 seats.
But the key is to drink it fairly fast, before the ice fatally dilutes the gin and tonic. It is not a drink to linger over. It is a HIT
Thankfully I have never found the fast drinking of G&Ts to be a challenge
https://beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-history
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
Let's see.
But 👍 for not going on any more about wine, the wanker's drink.
But in another sense, how can it account for that? How can it account for what's happened in Scotland over the past few weeks, considering that it doesn't include any data from Scotland. How about London, where Labour's polling lead is 40 points? Can one extrapolate from a disproportionately rural electorate to the whole country?
A couple of seats appear from nowhere like Green mould, before you know it they are second like they are in Worcester.
I don’t like them. I’m only 27 but to me they are unrealistic woke weirdo’s.
I blame the education system. And their parents. And the internet.
They will choose to govern on a confidence and supply basis, hope to do so competently, and as soon as it breaks down call another GE in the hope of sealing the deal properly.
I do not like Action Bronson. He played two tracks from him. Grr.
Most of the Green vote will go Labour or Lib Dem.
That part of the Lib Dem vote which does not stick with the Lib Dem’s probably splits about 2/1 Lab/Con (but varies greatly by area).