I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
An incoming government is going to be able to use "the mess left by the last Conservative government" for quite a while.
Also, remember the formula that 'Success = Results - Expectations'. If you come in with fanfare and trumpets you are bound to disappoint. Starmer looks like he'll hit the sweet spot of winning power (decisively) but with nobody thinking he'll do exciting beautiful things. This is a fabulous platform on which to govern. There's far more upside than downside. At worst he'll satisfy and there's just a chance he'll thrill.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
An incoming government is going to be able to use "the mess left by the last Conservative government" for quite a while.
Also, remember the formula that 'Success = Results - Expectations'. If you come in with fanfare and trumpets you are bound to disappoint. Starmer looks like he'll hit the sweet spot of winning power (decisively) but with nobody thinking he'll do exciting beautiful things. This is a fabulous platform on which to govern. There's far more upside than downside. At worst he'll satisfy and there's just a chance he'll thrill.
If you could bottle that optimism you would be rich beyond the dreams of an ex Tory PM.
Interesting narrative from The Thrash – Labour could command a majority with Scots revival (but we don't have any numbers from Scotland because the Celtic nations aren't voting)
Norn votes in a couple of weeks. Hopefully a good result for Alliance. If they come first and Sinn Fein second, it would be ‘cat, meet some pigeons’!
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
Ballistic is an easier problem than air launched, though, for detection, calculation of trajectory for intercept, and time available for those tasks. Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
Once Kh-47 is launched, the rocket motor burns out rapidly. After that it is ballistic. It may or may not be able to minor course corrections for accuracy.
The real “Hypersonic is a game changer” thing is about ram jets, sustained thrust and manoeuvring at those speeds.
As to the version of Patriot - missiles, radar etc - that will be closely held
I would need to do the maths, but I suspect we must be getting pretty close (around Mach 10) to the maximum speed a missile made of materials we can make today can achieve in any real atmospheric pressure. At some point the heat generated is going to be greater that any shielding can account for. At Mach 10 you’re already at thousands of degrees and many, many times pressure at sea level.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
Well she is articulate and persuasive , which in and of itself puts her ahead of pretty much all the other potential candidates.
It remains to be seen if she can build a successful alternative vision rather than being a one trick pony on the culture war topic (albeit that I do expect there to be a few easy media wins on that for someone like Kemi in Labour term 1) but they could do much, much worse in my opinion.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
Penny can probably make a decent fist of getting them back to being more centrist. But I don’t think she’ll get it.
It’ll be Badenoch vs Braverman IMHO. The latter spells disaster. The former likely has some upsides - Kemi is an impressive performer - but I suspect not enough to drag them back to electability in one term. But that’s just my two penneth.
Her fake military pretensions etc did for her. Fake through and through.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
I spent years on here saying that Raab was useless, Leadsome was useless and that Truss was useless but there were lots of people who assured me I had misjudged them all and I should recant of my folly.
I presume these people have now moved on to Badenoch.
PS - I was also very assertive that Boris would be a disaster and nothing good would come of Brexit, but I will own up to having misjudged T May. I did not realise how tin-eared and indecisive she would be.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
Well she is articulate and persuasive , which in and of itself puts her ahead of pretty much all the other potential candidates.
It remains to be seen if she can build a successful alternative vision rather than being a one trick pony on the culture war topic (albeit that I do expect there to be a few easy media wins on that for someone like Kemi in Labour term 1) but they could do much, much worse in my opinion.
I must have been viewing a different Kemi Badenoch to you.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
Penny can probably make a decent fist of getting them back to being more centrist. But I don’t think she’ll get it.
It’ll be Badenoch vs Braverman IMHO. The latter spells disaster. The former likely has some upsides - Kemi is an impressive performer - but I suspect not enough to drag them back to electability in one term. But that’s just my two penneth.
Her fake military pretensions etc did for her. Fake through and through.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
Well she is articulate and persuasive , which in and of itself puts her ahead of pretty much all the other potential candidates.
It remains to be seen if she can build a successful alternative vision rather than being a one trick pony on the culture war topic (albeit that I do expect there to be a few easy media wins on that for someone like Kemi in Labour term 1) but they could do much, much worse in my opinion.
I must have been viewing a different Kemi Badenoch to you.
Well the world would be a dull place if we all agreed with each other!
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
Ballistic is an easier problem than air launched, though, for detection, calculation of trajectory for intercept, and time available for those tasks. Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
Once Kh-47 is launched, the rocket motor burns out rapidly. After that it is ballistic. It may or may not be able to minor course corrections for accuracy.
The real “Hypersonic is a game changer” thing is about ram jets, sustained thrust and manoeuvring at those speeds.
As to the version of Patriot - missiles, radar etc - that will be closely held
I would need to do the maths, but I suspect we must be getting pretty close (around Mach 10) to the maximum speed a missile made of materials we can make today can achieve in any real atmospheric pressure. At some point the heat generated is going to be greater that any shielding can account for. At Mach 10 you’re already at thousands of degrees and many, many times pressure at sea level.
The spokesman of Ukraine's Air Force Command, Yuriy Ihnat, denied the information about the probable downing of a ballistic missile over Kyiv in a comment to Suspilne
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
What do Medway, Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent have in common?
They’re all areas that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016, but they’ve all returned Labour councils overnight... BBC
There seem to be some odd results going on and it also looks like local factors are playing a significant part in some results. Someone on here said a lot of the Plymouth issue may be down to the felling of trees. The Lib Dems have been taking seats from the Tories but lost a bunch in North Norfolk and didn't win East Cambs, which some are suggesting was due to the parking issues in Cambridge.
There is no doubt the results have been crap for the Conservatives but Labour is not knocking it out of the park. Places like the West Midlands do not look great at all.
This is healthy, I suppose, isn't it - that Local elections are influenced by Local factors. (manfully resisting League of Gentleman reference)
Voting LibDem at these kind of elections is in many circumstances just saying "**** you" to the Cons and is a million miles away from moving to Lab at the ensuing GE.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
It definitely seems if there is a fork in the road between guys like this and the more traditional one-nation tories.
Lets face it, Kier Starmer isn't going to worry people. He's a nice guy and a safe pair of hands. He's not Corbyn. Let the right wing take over the party and the centralists will be more than happy with a labour government.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
It definitely seems if there is a fork in the road between guys like this and the more traditional one-nation tories.
Lets face it, Kier Starmer isn't going to worry people. He's a nice guy and a safe pair of hands. He's not Corbyn. Let the right wing take over the party and the centralists will be more than happy with a labour government.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
"However, Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, poured cold water on the claim about Labour being on course to win a majority.
He said the local election results suggested Labour should win the most seats at the next general election but it remained "uncertain" if Sir Keir could secure a majority."
Uncertain is rubbish terminology here however esteemed the Professor may be. Uncertain could mean he thinks the probability of a Labour majority is a range between 30% and 70% or it could be a range between 80% and 90%, or pretty much any other percentages that are not 0% or 100%. Tell us the odds, or at least the range of odds, otherwise its a statement of the bleeding obvious.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You voted Lib Dem?! You do realise they’d have us back in the Single market in a trice
Maybe that’s what you want and fair enough but I thought you were a doctrinaire brexiteer
HYUFD will be pleased. The Conservatives easily held Epping Forest, with just one loss. The Conservatives have been doing really rather well in Essex, this time.
There will still be some awful Conservative results to come, but I think the losses will be around 800, rather than 1,000 +.
Less than 750 is trading at 1.02 - is that way too short then iyo?
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
It definitely seems if there is a fork in the road between guys like this and the more traditional one-nation tories.
Lets face it, Kier Starmer isn't going to worry people. He's a nice guy and a safe pair of hands. He's not Corbyn. Let the right wing take over the party and the centralists will be more than happy with a labour government.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
And Proportional Representation too, Bart, I hope. Not holding my breath though.
I appreciate that Labour’s triumph here is not utterly overwhelming, but Tory defeat seems comprehensive.
Thank fuck.
This ends the narrative about slow and steady Sunak, and I think the focus now will be on what the next Labour government looks like.
The chance of an attempted Boris return is small, but notably larger than it was yesterday. I spotted yesterday his rather bedraggled video on Twitter in which he claimed that “on the doorsteps, nobody wants Starmer”.
I doubt he has done any actual campaigning, and I took this to be part of his feeble ongoing attempt to look like a still-viable political entity.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).
Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.
I get tired of hearing about Kemi Badenoch on here – who is yet another deeply unimpressive common or garden culture warrior as far as I can ascertain. What people see in her is beyond me.
Well she is articulate and persuasive , which in and of itself puts her ahead of pretty much all the other potential candidates.
It remains to be seen if she can build a successful alternative vision rather than being a one trick pony on the culture war topic (albeit that I do expect there to be a few easy media wins on that for someone like Kemi in Labour term 1) but they could do much, much worse in my opinion.
I must have been viewing a different Kemi Badenoch to you.
Well the world would be a dull place if we all agreed with each other!
I appreciate that Labour’s triumph here is not utterly overwhelming, but Tory defeat seems comprehensive.
Thank fuck.
This ends the narrative about slow and steady Sunak, and I think the focus now will be on what the next Labour government looks like.
The chance of an attempted Boris return is small, but notably larger than it was yesterday. I spotted yesterday his rather bedraggled video on Twitter in which he claimed that “on the doorsteps, nobody wants Starmer”.
I doubt he has done any actual campaigning, and I took this to be part of his feeble ongoing attempt to look like a still-viable political entity.
The future is bright for the Tories. And it comes in a wide-legged trouser.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You voted Lib Dem?! You do realise they’d have us back in the Single market in a trice
Maybe that’s what you want and fair enough but I thought you were a doctrinaire brexiteer
It’s great that Barty has come over from the dark side. Ultimately he favours some vague sentiment in favour of economic growth, over Brexit purism.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You voted Lib Dem?! You do realise they’d have us back in the Single market in a trice
Maybe that’s what you want and fair enough but I thought you were a doctrinaire brexiteer
No, I'm a doctrinaire democrat. Democracy must be respected. Having voted to leave, it was important we left. We have.
Brexit is no longer an issue for me. We have left, it is done. If a government pledging to rejoin the EU is elected, which I do not see happening to be frank, then that too would be democracy and should also be respected.
I can't imagine either the LDs or Labour wanting to reopen the EU sore at the next election anymore. If they do, and they win, then that's democracy, but I just don't see it happening.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
Tory MPs have not been criticising Sunak openly, but one “Conservative source” has attacked him anonymously this morning, telling the Telegraph: Sunak can’t blame these results on last year’s chaos. He started that chaos by knifing the most successful Tory election winner in 50 years. Sunak’s claim that stability has been restored is shot to bits. These results are on track to be catastrophic for the party and worse than before the change of leader.
We were thinking Nadine has been a bit too quiet. 🙂
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
And Proportional Representation too, Bart, I hope. Not holding my breath though.
I may have joined team Orange (or is it now team EE), but I still despise Proportional Representation.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You voted Lib Dem?! You do realise they’d have us back in the Single market in a trice
Maybe that’s what you want and fair enough but I thought you were a doctrinaire brexiteer
No, I'm a doctrinaire democrat. Democracy must be respected. Having voted to leave, it was important we left. We have.
Brexit is no longer an issue for me. We have left, it is done. If a government pledging to rejoin the EU is elected, which I do not see happening to be frank, then that too would be democracy and should also be respected.
I can't imagine either the LDs or Labour wanting to reopen the EU sore at the next election anymore. If they do, and they win, then that's democracy, but I just don't see it happening.
Good post – and entirely fair. (I also agree with your forecast)
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
HYUFD will be pleased. The Conservatives easily held Epping Forest, with just one loss. The Conservatives have been doing really rather well in Essex, this time.
There will still be some awful Conservative results to come, but I think the losses will be around 800, rather than 1,000 +.
The Conservatives have lost (net) almost exactly a third of the seats they're defending on results declared so far (584 elected, 291 down).
So, based on defending 3,365 in total, a four figure loss seems plausible to me. It could easily be a bit better or a bit worse than that, but they'd need to do a fair bit better than they've done so far to limit it to 800.
Sunak still has a fair chance of winning the next election IMO, considering the Tories will have been in power for nearly 15 years. It looks like Labour aren't going to get the double digit lead they need for an overall majority.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
Good.
And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
The trouble is the Tories aren't being very Tory. They're not keeping tax low, delivering economic prosperity or controlling immigration. Meanwhile, there are plenty animated by issues like housing, education and the NHS.
Voting LibDem at these kind of elections is in many circumstances just saying "**** you" to the Cons and is a million miles away from moving to Lab at the ensuing GE.
That village is in Witney. The challenge is from the LibDems, not Labour.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
Ballistic is an easier problem than air launched, though, for detection, calculation of trajectory for intercept, and time available for those tasks. Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
Once Kh-47 is launched, the rocket motor burns out rapidly. After that it is ballistic. It may or may not be able to minor course corrections for accuracy.
The real “Hypersonic is a game changer” thing is about ram jets, sustained thrust and manoeuvring at those speeds.
As to the version of Patriot - missiles, radar etc - that will be closely held
I would need to do the maths, but I suspect we must be getting pretty close (around Mach 10) to the maximum speed a missile made of materials we can make today can achieve in any real atmospheric pressure. At some point the heat generated is going to be greater that any shielding can account for. At Mach 10 you’re already at thousands of degrees and many, many times pressure at sea level.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
This is a general truth.
Actually, if we want better politics, ultimately we need to figure out how to get better MPs.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
“Hardcore”?
You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration
Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Starmer has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
I'll probably regret asking this but what the hell let's live a little ... so what is that 'sanity' which Rishi Sunak is preventing the Tory Party rediscovering?
What do Medway, Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent have in common?
They’re all areas that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016, but they’ve all returned Labour councils overnight... BBC
There seem to be some odd results going on and it also looks like local factors are playing a significant part in some results. Someone on here said a lot of the Plymouth issue may be down to the felling of trees. The Lib Dems have been taking seats from the Tories but lost a bunch in North Norfolk and didn't win East Cambs, which some are suggesting was due to the parking issues in Cambridge.
There is no doubt the results have been crap for the Conservatives but Labour is not knocking it out of the park. Places like the West Midlands do not look great at all.
This is healthy, I suppose, isn't it - that Local elections are influenced by Local factors. (manfully resisting League of Gentleman reference)
Labour gain East Staffs from the Conservatives. Burton and surrounds, in the West Midlands.
Tory MPs have not been criticising Sunak openly, but one “Conservative source” has attacked him anonymously this morning, telling the Telegraph: Sunak can’t blame these results on last year’s chaos. He started that chaos by knifing the most successful Tory election winner in 50 years. Sunak’s claim that stability has been restored is shot to bits. These results are on track to be catastrophic for the party and worse than before the change of leader.
We were thinking Nadine has been a bit too quiet. 🙂
Rishi hasn't turned things around but if I see another Boris fanatic whinge about him being ousted without reflecting why such a successful election winner was ousted I may scream.
Think just how bad he had to be to see that happen. They just ignore that, or inexplicably suggest a majority of Tory MPs gave in to the remainer deep state.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
Another drawback of FPTP, perchance?
Not really, since PR creates list MPs aka unelectable party hacks.
Not exactly a positive list for the tories so far...
Odd phrasing. Changing it to be consistent gives us:
Which councils have changed hands so far? With just under half of the local election results declared, here's a list of the councils that have changed hands so far:
Brentwood - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Tamworth - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Plymouth - no overall control loss to Labour
North West Leicestershire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Hertsmere - Conservatives loss to no overall control
East Lindsay - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Stoke-on-Trent - no overall control loss to Labour
Boston - no overall control loss to Independent
Windsor & Maidenhead - Conservatives loss to Lib Dem
Medway - Conservatives loss to Labour
South Kesteven - Conservatives loss to no overall control
East Hertfordshire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
South Gloucestershire - Conservatives loss to no overall control
Welwyn Hatfield - Conservatives loss to no overall control
You have far too much time on your hands!
At Lunch. Will do BritainElects mixtape in a few minutes.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
Good.
And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
Sunak still has a fair chance of winning the next election IMO, considering the Tories will have been in power for nearly 15 years. It looks like Labour aren't going to get the double digit lead they need for an overall majority.
A chance, but less of a chance that it appeared last week.
Sunak still has a fair chance of winning the next election IMO, considering the Tories will have been in power for nearly 15 years. It looks like Labour aren't going to get the double digit lead they need for an overall majority.
He has a chance due to scale of majority, but not a fair chance I feel.
If there are sizable Slab gains Keir gets a majority, if not then he almost certainly gets most seats a la 2010.
Outside a few "considerably richer than youw" parishes in Greater Birmingham, I don't see many bright lights for the Tories. They are even getting mullered in Staffordshire now – the bolthole in the Black Country seems rather small in scope and scale.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
He’s not “hardcore” at all. Immigration levels are higher than ever.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
This is a general truth.
Actually, if we want better politics, ultimately we need to figure out how to get better MPs.
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
Ballistic is an easier problem than air launched, though, for detection, calculation of trajectory for intercept, and time available for those tasks. Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
Once Kh-47 is launched, the rocket motor burns out rapidly. After that it is ballistic. It may or may not be able to minor course corrections for accuracy.
The real “Hypersonic is a game changer” thing is about ram jets, sustained thrust and manoeuvring at those speeds.
As to the version of Patriot - missiles, radar etc - that will be closely held
I would need to do the maths, but I suspect we must be getting pretty close (around Mach 10) to the maximum speed a missile made of materials we can make today can achieve in any real atmospheric pressure. At some point the heat generated is going to be greater that any shielding can account for. At Mach 10 you’re already at thousands of degrees and many, many times pressure at sea level.
The spokesman of Ukraine's Air Force Command, Yuriy Ihnat, denied the information about the probable downing of a ballistic missile over Kyiv in a comment to Suspilne
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
Too many of them possess first rate egos and third rate abilities.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
Another drawback of FPTP, perchance?
Not really, since PR creates list MPs aka unelectable party hacks.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
This is a general truth.
Actually, if we want better politics, ultimately we need to figure out how to get better MPs.
May I tentatively suggest a better voting system?
I don’t think it helps, honestly.
I think the issue goes back to structural factors relating to candidate appetite, candidate selection, and perhaps also the lockhold London has on the rest of the country.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Starmer has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
I'll probably regret asking this but what the hell let's live a little ... so what is that 'sanity' which Rishi Sunak is preventing the Tory Party rediscovering?
A belief in aspiration, hard work and growing the economy. A belief in letting working people keep more of what they earn, and getting good pay rises from growth too.
He also caved in totally to the NIMBY tendency and stood in the way of allowing more development and people to have a home of their own.
Sunak is just interested in ever more bloating the welfare state for the expanding non-working pensioner client class, protecting the property value of those with property portfolios while jacking up taxes on work and having no objections to young people facing a future of being heavily taxed rent payers.
He believes in nothing other than managed decline and protecting the interests of those who are already well off, rather than those who are aspirational which is when the Tories are at their best.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You mean Starmer rather than Sunak in your last reference, I think?
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You mean Starmer rather than Sunak in your last reference, I think?
Yes, thanks for pointing that out, too late to edit it.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
“Hardcore”?
You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration
Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
He's hardcore in rhetoric and intent. Rwanda. Boats. They're just incompetent to deliver it.
That may be reason for some to be mad, but it won't mean an improvement, from that chaps pov, if Labour get in.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You voted Lib Dem?! You do realise they’d have us back in the Single market in a trice
Maybe that’s what you want and fair enough but I thought you were a doctrinaire brexiteer
It’s great that Barty has come over from the dark side. Ultimately he favours some vague sentiment in favour of economic growth, over Brexit purism.
I’m pleased to hear the Lib Dems are the party of growth. They had hidden it well I thought behind demands for ever growing windfall taxes (I suppose that’s growth of sorts) that ultimately makes BP and Shell think “uh, you do realise most of our profits aren’t generated in the UK and if you are going to screw us then maybe we move our HQ and listings?”
But then maybe they will get growth through building millions of houses, loudly announced on the Today programme whilst constituency candidates promise their nimby electorate that they clearly don’t mean they will be building anywhere near the constituency.
I must pay more attention and find out their other genius plans for growth.
Note: this is not saying any of the other parties have serious workable plans for growth either.
It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory.
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
You voted Lib Dem?! You do realise they’d have us back in the Single market in a trice
Maybe that’s what you want and fair enough but I thought you were a doctrinaire brexiteer
No, I'm a doctrinaire democrat. Democracy must be respected. Having voted to leave, it was important we left. We have.
Brexit is no longer an issue for me. We have left, it is done. If a government pledging to rejoin the EU is elected, which I do not see happening to be frank, then that too would be democracy and should also be respected.
I can't imagine either the LDs or Labour wanting to reopen the EU sore at the next election anymore. If they do, and they win, then that's democracy, but I just don't see it happening.
That's my view too. And anyway, I always said I would be happy with "Norway" so if we did ever rejoin the single market I personally would be fine with that.
Trading with Europe but outside all the political nonsense... However, like you say I just don't see Starmer wanting to reopen all of this. He'll tinker at the edges of our relationship with the EU but I think all those remainers that are putting their hopes and dreams in him to basically rejoin us back to the EU are going to be disappointed... which in itself is going to cause a lot of angst for the Labour government IMO.
By the 2029 general election we might actually have specific a REJOIN party emerging.
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
Politicians as disloyal self-interested little shits?
(They won last time, but with a Corbynite who then got booted out halfway through his term for anti-Semitism. He was standing as an independent this time round but Labour regained the seat.)
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
It definitely seems if there is a fork in the road between guys like this and the more traditional one-nation tories.
Lets face it, Kier Starmer isn't going to worry people. He's a nice guy and a safe pair of hands. He's not Corbyn. Let the right wing take over the party and the centralists will be more than happy with a labour government.
Keir
K
E
I
R
FFS
I before E innit? (only joking)
Remember the mnemonic - I Before E Except When It Isn't.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
“Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
The Conservatives, since 2017, left no stone unturned, in their determination to trash the brand. Up till 2019, Labour were doing likewise, but the Conservatives carried on.
It remains to be see whether Labour in office will trash their brand.
The behaviour of far too many of the MPs is lamentable.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
This is a general truth.
Actually, if we want better politics, ultimately we need to figure out how to get better MPs.
May I tentatively suggest a better voting system?
There are bad MPs in other systems. It would help generally, imo, but better people standing is more a cultural problem we have. And that they get no reward by improving, in fact being petty and ignorant seems to help them sometimes.
Comments
(Or at least, the Oxfordshire village where it's filmed.)
https://twitter.com/OxfordClarion/status/1654458136827158528
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
Thank God Hyufd is safe!
We’ve got so much to get through.
It remains to be seen if she can build a successful alternative vision rather than being a one trick pony on the culture war topic (albeit that I do expect there to be a few easy media wins on that for someone like Kemi in Labour term 1) but they could do much, much worse in my opinion.
I presume these people have now moved on to Badenoch.
PS - I was also very assertive that Boris would be a disaster and nothing good would come of Brexit, but I will own up to having misjudged T May. I did not realise how tin-eared and indecisive she would be.
Mother.
Monarch.
Mistress.
She was wise before her time.
But now the time is hers.
Corbyn's Cove
230/84 * 286 = 783 losses overall (calculated).
https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Dear Tories
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Perhaps she is the William Hague de nos jours, who was denounced as a right-wing young fogey back in the late 1990s.
We might never see their like again.
"There was a possibility of use, but no ballistic missiles were recorded," he said.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1654459452932739078
I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Sunak has a minority or majority government.
Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.
Was Boris Johnson standing?
Lets face it, Kier Starmer isn't going to worry people. He's a nice guy and a safe pair of hands. He's not Corbyn. Let the right wing take over the party and the centralists will be more than happy with a labour government.
K
E
I
R
FFS
Got it.
Maybe that’s what you want and fair enough but I thought you were a doctrinaire brexiteer
Thank fuck.
This ends the narrative about slow and steady Sunak, and I think the focus now will be on what the next Labour government looks like.
The chance of an attempted Boris return is small, but notably larger than it was yesterday. I spotted yesterday his rather bedraggled video on Twitter in which he claimed that “on the doorsteps, nobody wants Starmer”.
I doubt he has done any actual campaigning, and I took this to be part of his feeble ongoing attempt to look like a still-viable political entity.
wide-legged trouser.
Brexit is no longer an issue for me. We have left, it is done. If a government pledging to rejoin the EU is elected, which I do not see happening to be frank, then that too would be democracy and should also be respected.
I can't imagine either the LDs or Labour wanting to reopen the EU sore at the next election anymore. If they do, and they win, then that's democracy, but I just don't see it happening.
Sunak can’t blame these results on last year’s chaos. He started that chaos by knifing the most successful Tory election winner in 50 years.
Sunak’s claim that stability has been restored is shot to bits. These results are on track to be catastrophic for the party and worse than before the change of leader.
We were thinking Nadine has been a bit too quiet. 🙂
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
So, based on defending 3,365 in total, a four figure loss seems plausible to me. It could easily be a bit better or a bit worse than that, but they'd need to do a fair bit better than they've done so far to limit it to 800.
One would hope a clear out would allow a fresh start but I'm not holding my breath. Some of the biggest wallies hold the safest seats.
And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
Why would they get all the votes?
In the video, a Sprint missile goes 0-Mach 10 at 100g of acceleration. Then starts glowing white hot.
Essentially the rentry problem.
The bigger issue is manoeuvring at those speeds - if the vehicle touches the plasma layer that forms around it…. Boom
Actually, if we want better politics, ultimately we need to figure out how to get better MPs.
You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration
Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
Think just how bad he had to be to see that happen. They just ignore that, or inexplicably suggest a majority of Tory MPs gave in to the remainer deep state.
If there are sizable Slab gains Keir gets a majority, if not then he almost certainly gets most seats a la 2010.
Immigration levels are higher than ever.
I think the issue goes back to structural factors relating to candidate appetite, candidate selection, and perhaps also the lockhold London has on the rest of the country.
He also caved in totally to the NIMBY tendency and stood in the way of allowing more development and people to have a home of their own.
Sunak is just interested in ever more bloating the welfare state for the expanding non-working pensioner client class, protecting the property value of those with property portfolios while jacking up taxes on work and having no objections to young people facing a future of being heavily taxed rent payers.
He believes in nothing other than managed decline and protecting the interests of those who are already well off, rather than those who are aspirational which is when the Tories are at their best.
That may be reason for some to be mad,
but it won't mean an improvement, from that chaps pov, if Labour get in.
Hague was never an actual numpty. He just seemed numptyish because frankly he was green and inexperienced.
He needed seasoning.
Suspect the same is also true of Badenoch.
But then maybe they will get growth through building millions of houses, loudly announced on the Today programme whilst constituency candidates promise their nimby electorate that they clearly don’t mean they will be building anywhere near the constituency.
I must pay more attention and find out their other genius plans for growth.
Note: this is not saying any of the other parties have serious workable plans for growth either.
Trading with Europe but outside all the political nonsense... However, like you say I just don't see Starmer wanting to reopen all of this. He'll tinker at the edges of our relationship with the EU but I think all those remainers that are putting their hopes and dreams in him to basically rejoin us back to the EU are going to be disappointed... which in itself is going to cause a lot of angst for the Labour government IMO.
By the 2029 general election we might actually have specific a REJOIN party emerging.
Colour me shocked
(They won last time, but with a Corbynite who then got booted out halfway through his term for anti-Semitism. He was standing as an independent this time round but Labour regained the seat.)