BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
But the headline numbers for Con and LD are very encouraging?
Could see the LDs doing serious damage in the blue wall.
A fair few Blue Wall Tory MPs need to be thinking about a life after politics.
And Red Wall ones. PB loses an MP but gains a bookie.
I have been listening on and off to St John Curtice since yesterday evening. I know he's well respected and the news channels are falling over themselves to quote him but I've seen financial services ads with less disclaimers.......
Interviewer- 'Well we can say this is a good night for Labour?"
JC -Well yes ....but no. I wouldn't put it like that. I might say ....but then again I could be quite wrong. But if you ask me what it means then I'd have to say I don't know. But that's not to say I don't know and of course by next year it might all have changed but what we do know....perhaps .......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ"
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
A pennant flows? Eyes think? WTF? This is sub-Adrian Mole. But 👍 for not going on any more about wine, the wanker's drink.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Not sure I see a coalition. The Lib Dems are still scarred from the last time.
Confidence and supply is much more likely. Added into SNP presumably supporting on issue by issue basis, Lucas and the SDLP and you've probably got a decent chance of getting a full term out of that kind of arrangement on anything north of 300 seats.
After this set of results, the key question seems to be do the LDs essentially get a 2005 style result when they were the beneficiary of distrust / disgust of a Government or not? The Labour results don't suggest a party that is sweeping to a majority, especially given some of the geographical variations. What Labour really needs is for the LDs to continue eating onto the Blue Wall.
One other thing - bizarrely enough, I think these results strengthen Sunak eventually, not weakens him. The number one takeaway seems to be that the danger to the Tories lies in the Blue Wall, not necessarily the Red one (with obvious exceptions). Sunak is better placed to hold those seats.
I have been listening on and off to St John Curtice since yesterday evening. I know he's well respected and the news channels are falling over themselves to quote him but I've seen financial services ads with less disclaimers.......
Interviewer- 'Well we can say this is a good night for Labour?"
JC -Well yes ....but no. I wouldn't put it like that. I might say ....but then again I could be quite wrong. But if you ask me what it means then I'd have to say I don't know. But that's not to say I don't know and of course by next year it might all have changed but what we do know....perhaps .......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ"
No wonder poor old MoonRabbit sounds frazzled.
He's an academic. The only thing he can say with certainty is that more research is needed!
As we get out to the Shires the Lib Dems are really taking off. This may well be their best set of results since the Coalition.
What's most surprising about this is that 2019 was already an excellent year for the LibDems, with a NEV of 19%, and almost as many councillors as Labour.
If there's a takeaway from this for me, it's that the LibDems are benefitting again from tactical voting. Labour supporters are willing to lend their vote to get the Conservatives out. Which should make half a dozen Conservative MPs very nervous indeed.
Maybe even a couple of dozen. The Yellow Peril is back after a fairly lengthy hiatus.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
MoE and ID card disenfranchisement easily bumps it up to 12 in my universe.
It's actually a good result, I think. Do you think so too? Or are you still scared of them pulling off a dramatic comeback GE win with Death Penalty For Nonces?
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
I predicted yesterday it would be 9% according to Murphy's/Sod's Law, because the experts say a 10% lead is needed to indicate a majority and Labour said 8%. So it was bound to be between the two, just to be awkward.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Certainly on these results.
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
Let's see.
That's not quite true: the Alliance were pretty weak in local elections back in the 1980s. Even when they were number one in the polls, they were unable to translate that into local election success. (See the 1982 results - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_United_Kingdom_local_elections - as an example. Despite topping opinion polls at the time, they ended up winning only about 8 or 9% of councillors.)
It was really only in the early 1990s that the party started to focus hard on the local elections, realising that running the council and building a base of activists mattered. And in 1997 it paid off big time.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Certainly on these results.
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
Let's see.
You get constituencies like Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, Totnes, where Lib Dem local strength does not feed through at national level.
As we get out to the Shires the Lib Dems are really taking off. This may well be their best set of results since the Coalition.
What's most surprising about this is that 2019 was already an excellent year for the LibDems, with a NEV of 19%, and almost as many councillors as Labour.
If there's a takeaway from this for me, it's that the LibDems are benefitting again from tactical voting. Labour supporters are willing to lend their vote to get the Conservatives out. Which should make half a dozen Conservative MPs very nervous indeed.
Absolutely. The imperative I found on the doorstep was to get the buggers out. Tactical voting is back. More than half a dozen Tory MPs should be nervous.
I said at midnight last night that the early data showed that the big story would be tactical voting. I was mocked by the hapless Moon Rabbit, who should now swallow her pride and fess up to her multiple sins.
Once upon the time was a beautiful tree. Everybody loved it. Plenty of shade in summer. You could be forgiven for thinking it would stand there for ever.
Then along came Boris Johnson and his friends, dug it up, chopped up its roots, and left it lying there with a couple empty cans of red stripe and a wine bottle.
Meanwhile I can't believe that anyone is getting excited - talking to you, Lab supporters - at the LibDems hoovering up votes ahead of a general election when the incumbent is on its knees.
It certainly doesn't presage a Lab victory, it is just a mid-ish term protest vote.
There might of course be a Lab victory but these results don't tell you anything.
Are you kidding? LibDems taking chunks of the south from the Tories hands Labour a majority.
Well the king has told his carer, J Dimbleby, to blame the archbishop for the king's own decision to call for a mass loyalty oath. The archbishop has said it was a collective decision for which no single person is to blame, and the carer has strongly implied that the king didn't know about it anyway and would have opposed the idea if only somebody had asked him. Someone then offered the document that the king signed off, as well as an audiotape, as an NFT, and now the king has gone hopping mad and is threatening to abdicate. That's what the lunch for the "realm prime ministers and governors" was all about, apparently.
Of course nobody could possibly have predicted something like this might happen.
Looking at the Bracknell Forest Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/BracknellForest) there seems to be a big story emerging down there with Labour seemingly close to taking the council from the Tories when they only had two seats previously.
I was always surprised that Bracknell wasn't more Labour. When people got enough money they moved to Wokingham. Of course, with all the housebuilding round there there is now less than 400m separating the outskirts (one field and the A329M) so they are pretty much one!
Though interestingly the Tories had done a pretty good job regenerating Bracknell tbh. Compare that to the dire job in Woking…
I have been listening on and off to St John Curtice since yesterday evening. I know he's well respected and the news channels are falling over themselves to quote him but I've seen financial services ads with less disclaimers.......
Interviewer- 'Well we can say this is a good night for Labour?"
JC -Well yes ....but no. I wouldn't put it like that. I might say ....but then again I could be quite wrong. But if you ask me what it means then I'd have to say I don't know. But that's not to say I don't know and of course by next year it might all have changed but what we do know....perhaps .......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ"
No wonder poor old MoonRabbit sounds frazzled.
He's an academic. The only thing he can say with certainty is that more research is needed!
Like others, I saw the images of the Sainted Mr Curtice (who is surely a hero to any politics nerd on PB, including me) and I agree with the consensus that he suddenly looks alarmingly frail and elderly. I am willing to cut him some slack on the grounds that he is either quite ill or about to snap off like a carrot, I sincerely hope neither is the case
Well the king has told his carer, J Dimbleby, to blame the archbishop for the king's own decision to call for a mass loyalty oath. The archbishop has said it was a collective decision for which no single person is to blame, and the carer has strongly implied that the king didn't know about it anyway and would have opposed the idea if only somebody had asked him. Someone then offered the document that the king signed off, as well as an audiotape, as an NFT, and now the king has gone hopping mad and threatened to abdicate.
Of course nobody could possibly have predicted something like this might happen.
Those poor Royalist cucks.
Which reminds me I need to change my profile picture.
I have been listening on and off to St John Curtice since yesterday evening. I know he's well respected and the news channels are falling over themselves to quote him but I've seen financial services ads with less disclaimers.......
Interviewer- 'Well we can say this is a good night for Labour?"
JC -Well yes ....but no. I wouldn't put it like that. I might say ....but then again I could be quite wrong. But if you ask me what it means then I'd have to say I don't know. But that's not to say I don't know and of course by next year it might all have changed but what we do know....perhaps .......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ"
No wonder poor old MoonRabbit sounds frazzled.
It's important for someone like Curtice not to make any hostages to fortune... You know like declaring the run on Northern Rock will be all forgotten about in a few days... that kind of thing
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
As this article explains, historically, a 9 point NEV lead is consistent with a 15% poll lead.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Certainly on these results.
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
Let's see.
You get constituencies like Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, Totnes, where Lib Dem local strength does not feed through at national level.
Eastleigh used to have a LibDem MP, and they are a strong second there, with a decent Labour vote to squeeze.
I'd say it's pretty likely that at the next General Election, the LDs and the Conservatives will both end up in the 40s. Albeit, I'd be quite surprised if the LDs actually gained the seat.
A nice thing about local elections is one gets to learn about rivers one had never heard of before.
I must admit that despite being Staffordshire born and bred, I had never heard of the river Mease, but here is a Wikipedia page with everything anyone could wish to know about it, including a photo of an adorable otter and a slightly less adorable spined loach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Mease
MODERATOR - please take notice of this blatant, wanton example of anti-piscine-ism!
I think you'll find the correct word is ichthyophobia.
And you're right. I should get therapy, that would enable me to cuddle up to a spined loach with the same affection I would have for an adorable little otter.
Meanwhile I can't believe that anyone is getting excited - talking to you, Lab supporters - at the LibDems hoovering up votes ahead of a general election when the incumbent is on its knees.
It certainly doesn't presage a Lab victory, it is just a mid-ish term protest vote.
There might of course be a Lab victory but these results don't tell you anything.
Are you kidding? LibDems taking chunks of the south from the Tories hands Labour a majority.
Perhaps. But the LibDems have always gained in these situations and it is an indicator but imo not a hugely strong one. That will come at the I Agree with Ed stage and I'm not sure that it will actually arrive.
The LibDems are far better in theory than they are in practice.
Well the king has told his carer, J Dimbleby, to blame the archbishop for the king's own decision to call for a mass loyalty oath. The archbishop has said it was a collective decision for which no single person is to blame, and the carer has strongly implied that the king didn't know about it anyway and would have opposed the idea if only somebody had asked him. Someone then offered the document that the king signed off, as well as an audiotape, as an NFT, and now the king has gone hopping mad and is threatening to abdicate. That's what the lunch for the "realm prime ministers and governors" was all about, apparently.
Of course nobody could possibly have predicted something like this might happen.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmm. Ok. 12 was my wildest dream and 7 my darkest fear. And it's 9. That's closer to darkest fear than wildest dream so I ought not to be feeling as content as I am. Yet I definitely am. Perhaps I wasn't being 100% honest with myself before.
MoE and ID card disenfranchisement easily bumps it up to 12 in my universe.
It's actually a good result, I think. Do you think so too? Or are you still scared of them pulling off a dramatic comeback GE win with Death Penalty For Nonces?
It is looking like even a manifesto pledge to make Remainerism, Socialism and Wokery capital crimes might fall short.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Certainly on these results.
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
Let's see.
You get constituencies like Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, Totnes, where Lib Dem local strength does not feed through at national level.
Eastleigh used to have a LibDem MP, and they are a strong second there, with a decent Labour vote to squeeze.
I'd say it's pretty likely that at the next General Election, the LDs and the Conservatives will both end up in the 40s. Albeit, I'd be quite surprised if the LDs actually gained the seat.
In conclusion we need a Lib Dem Labour coalition with PR top of Starmer's to-do list so a crazy loon like Boris Johnson can never become top honcho again
As we get out to the Shires the Lib Dems are really taking off. This may well be their best set of results since the Coalition.
Or Since the coronation.
And also to remember, this set of elections not at all good for Tories last time, this is all being built on last time. For example, less seat changes doesn’t mean better Conservative result, if the low hanging fruit was picked last time, it’s the harder to pick fruit being harvested here.
There has been a tendency for the party in government to have their base hollowed out as a precursor to losing power. I don't think that the loss of a network of local councillors who know and work their area can be underestimated. I was surprised to see a chart yesterday which showed that until now the Tories have been largely immune to this tendency but they do seem to be catching up with it today.
And if you look at Carlotta’s leaflet discussion yesterday afternoon, it ties in with that doesn’t it.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
I predicted yesterday it would be 9% according to Murphy's/Sod's Law, because the experts say a 10% lead is needed to indicate a majority and Labour said 8%. So it was bound to be between the two, just to be awkward.
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
It's still close enough for that cigar! Throw in Wales and now Scotland and we might exceed the ten point lead for GB, that was called as the required baseline number.
Doesn't PNS already account for the parts of the country that aren't voting?
Maybe. I was assuming an England only extrapolation as there are no Welsh and Scottish votes cast. I will bow to your greater knowledge.
From my research, the BBC’s PNS relies on working from a baseline when a GE occurred on the same day as a LE. This is the norm but due to the recent abnormal period the last time was 2015. So I THINK that the PNS still has Lab’s disaster in Scotland baked in which costs them about two points of PNS. This explains why Rallings/Thrasher’s NEV has consistently had Lab a bit higher, as they work it out differently.
In conclusion we need a Lib Dem Labour coalition with PR top of Starmer's to-do list so a crazy loon like Boris Johnson can never become top honcho again
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Certainly on these results.
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
Let's see.
You get constituencies like Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, Totnes, where Lib Dem local strength does not feed through at national level.
Not yet anyway, though Eastleigh had an LD MP for years, and indeed some of the West Country.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
Give it a few more gins and you will be checking the tackle of suspected ladyboys...
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Lab LD coalition looking quite likely. That for me would be the ideal result.
Yes a quite plausible outcome. I don't expect many LD gains but even if LD have 15 - 20 seats that would be very helpful to support LAB.
That’s where I disagree. Would have to see the full analysis, but my initial thought is that the LDs should be looking at 30+ on these results.
Certainly on these results.
I don't think that LDs will get that sort of vote in a GE. Historically over a LONG time period good/very good LD local election results have not been reflected in the following GE.
Let's see.
You get constituencies like Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, Totnes, where Lib Dem local strength does not feed through at national level.
Eastleigh used to have a LibDem MP, and they are a strong second there, with a decent Labour vote to squeeze.
I'd say it's pretty likely that at the next General Election, the LDs and the Conservatives will both end up in the 40s. Albeit, I'd be quite surprised if the LDs actually gained the seat.
As an Eastleigh Resident I have to say its a totally mad borough, the Lib Dems have 35 of the 39 seat and win Local Council seats in areas which are probably 70-80% Tory at GE election time. The Council is not a NIMBY council at all and there has been an incredible amount of new housing built in the Eastleigh area over the past 10 years and the locals don't seem to mind at all.
A nice thing about local elections is one gets to learn about rivers one had never heard of before.
I must admit that despite being Staffordshire born and bred, I had never heard of the river Mease, but here is a Wikipedia page with everything anyone could wish to know about it, including a photo of an adorable otter and a slightly less adorable spined loach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Mease
MODERATOR - please take notice of this blatant, wanton example of anti-piscine-ism!
I think you'll find the correct word is ichthyophobia.
And you're right. I should get therapy, that would enable me to cuddle up to a spined loach with the same affection I would have for an adorable little otter.
Thanks for learned correction.
However, you are clearly prejudiced against this VERY cute little whatever-it-is, just because it's otter-bait?
Meanwhile I can't believe that anyone is getting excited - talking to you, Lab supporters - at the LibDems hoovering up votes ahead of a general election when the incumbent is on its knees.
It certainly doesn't presage a Lab victory, it is just a mid-ish term protest vote.
There might of course be a Lab victory but these results don't tell you anything.
Are you kidding? LibDems taking chunks of the south from the Tories hands Labour a majority.
Perhaps. But the LibDems have always gained in these situations and it is an indicator but imo not a hugely strong one. That will come at the I Agree with Ed stage and I'm not sure that it will actually arrive.
The LibDems are far better in theory than they are in practice.
So we have dozens of seats with the LibDems in 2nd and Labour way off. Labour won't win those seats. But the LibDems could. And Con -1 LD +1 is a seat off the Tories regardless of it not being for Labour.
What we have seen is a relatively low % of votes for the LDs delivering a lot a lot of seats. Which is how the party always used to operate in GEs. That stopped after 2015, which was gift week for the Tories.
If widespread tactical voting against the Tories is back - and we are seeing that across the board - then of course it presages a Labour victory. Not a Heathener landslide, but it never was going to be.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
Give it a few more gins and you will be checking the tackle of suspected ladyboys...
House of Commons on today's NEV Labour 312, Conservatives 226, LDs 40, Others 72
I SUSPECT but don't KNOW that a large part of the 72 are SNP MPs, the swings in the local elections if simply replicated in Scotland would not make a lot of difference. However it appears that there may be a larger SNP to LAB swing per the latest polls so the underlying position for LAB might be better than 312.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
Ah hang on though. This is the projection of the locals up to national level, isn't it, not a GE equivalent. ie 35% is what Lab would have got if there had been a local election yesterday in every part of the country. To map that to a general you have to make a further adjustment. An upwards one for Lab and Con, a downwards one for LD. So the 35/26/20 becomes something like 39/29/13. Sort of thing.
A nice thing about local elections is one gets to learn about rivers one had never heard of before.
I must admit that despite being Staffordshire born and bred, I had never heard of the river Mease, but here is a Wikipedia page with everything anyone could wish to know about it, including a photo of an adorable otter and a slightly less adorable spined loach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Mease
MODERATOR - please take notice of this blatant, wanton example of anti-piscine-ism!
I think you'll find the correct word is ichthyophobia.
And you're right. I should get therapy, that would enable me to cuddle up to a spined loach with the same affection I would have for an adorable little otter.
Thanks for learned correction.
However, you are clearly prejudiced against this VERY cute little whatever-it-is, just because it's otter-bait?
Look, I'm not criticising you for being an ichthyophile. Can't we just live and let live?
BBC PNS Lab 35 Con 26 LD 20 Oth 19 Nine-point lead but Lab no higher than last year
Hmmm... Labour share and swing not really there for the general is it?
You Conservatives can all take consolation that this could well just be a mid term protest, but it is hard not to see that even on those terms alone it is a disastrous mid term protest for the Tories, and the spoils are being shared between Lab, LD and Green.
I cannot see this result as being bad for anyone but the Conservatives.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
I can remember when the Khlongs of Bangkok ran with eels. Seriously
But the 2nd G&T is definitely a thing. It’s not the first nor the third, it’s the second
And no other hit of alcohol quite does it in the same way
Pussy.
That is not a gin and tonic. That is a bowl full of ice soon to be water.
The only G&T worth having is gin straight from the freezer, tonic straight from the fridge.
No ice, no lemon.
Chill the glass before also.
Noooooo, you need lots of ice
But the key is to drink it fairly fast, before the ice fatally dilutes the gin and tonic. It is not a drink to linger over. It is a HIT
Thankfully I have never found the fast drinking of G&Ts to be a challenge
Will throw my weight behind behind you for a change here. Topping's affair sounds more like a Martini ethic. For the G&T you do want the ice cubes. As much for the tinkling sound as anything else. You swirl the glass and it tinkles. No ice, no tinkle. Not the same.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
“Hardcore”?
You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration
Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
Apparently wrong
“the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”
And there's the problem.
People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.
People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.
So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
It could try getting a grip on the future.
If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
That is because you are as thick as a plank, with the understanding of a lobotomised neanderthal.
9 points decent, but 10 was my threshold for being happy and 35 isn't high.
But then I remember, as an LE01-15 fairly consistent Labour voter (and often against LDs at that), I switched Green (made sense for my ward) for the Corbyn years and never switched back.
So, I'm one of those LLGs that Labour are, reasonably, pinning some hopes on.
It's decent for LAB but not enough for LAB to be sure of an overall majority next year. In particular 35% is a bit low (I know that was enough in 2005) and LAB would like a slightly bigger lead.
But looks like LAB maybe 290 - 330 seats?
As this article explains, historically, a 9 point NEV lead is consistent with a 15% poll lead.
We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264 Con -470 LD +151 IND -38 Grn +105 RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he's seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.
Yes they are both the PNS figures. NEV in 2019 was 31/31/17/21, so higher for Lab and Con there. R&T have the good sense to wait until more than half the results are out before releasing anything.
To be honest, I'm a tad sceptical about any projection that says the two main parties would only pick up 61% of the vote between them across GB, based on English local election results from the provinces only.
Rather intriguing though if those figures stand. With the Conservatives down only 2 on 2019 you wouldn't expect them to be well on course for 800+ losses. It just shows that both Labour, LD and Green votes are being distributed more efficiently than previously to pick up local government seats.
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
“Hardcore”?
You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration
Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
Apparently wrong
“the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”
And there's the problem.
People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.
People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.
So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
It could try getting a grip on the future.
If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
That is because you are as thick as a plank, with the understanding of a lobotomised neanderthal.
Oh, and and a twat to boot.
Congratulations on coming up with some personal abuse that runs to more than one or two syllables this time.
Apart from "twat", of course. I'm not sure whether that's an improvement on your last effort - "wanker" - or not ...
We've just reached 4030 seats listed on the BBC website (so half of those contested).
Lab +264 Con -470 LD +151 IND -38 Grn +105 RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
Strangely enough at 12.00 PM last night I posted a prediction from (I think) John Curtice which based on what he's seen so far gave the Tories -800 and Labour +500.
Perhaps the tautology was worthwhile
I posted that LAB would have a 9% lead in National Share from Curtice
I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration
1/
Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account
These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
Good.
And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon
A pennant flows? Eyes think? WTF? This is sub-Adrian Mole. But 👍 for not going on any more about wine, the wanker's drink.
Comments
Interviewer- 'Well we can say this is a good night for Labour?"
JC -Well yes ....but no. I wouldn't put it like that. I might say ....but then again I could be quite wrong. But if you ask me what it means then I'd have to say I don't know. But that's not to say I don't know and of course by next year it might all have changed but what we do know....perhaps .......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ"
No wonder poor old MoonRabbit sounds frazzled.
At the general election the result in Central Suffolk was as follows:
Con 63%
Lab 21%
LD 11.5%
Greens 4.7%
One other thing - bizarrely enough, I think these results strengthen Sunak eventually, not weakens him. The number one takeaway seems to be that the danger to the Tories lies in the Blue Wall, not necessarily the Red one (with obvious exceptions). Sunak is better placed to hold those seats.
It was really only in the early 1990s that the party started to focus hard on the local elections, realising that running the council and building a base of activists mattered. And in 1997 it paid off big time.
You can all thank me now or on Sunday.
Then along came Boris Johnson and his friends, dug it up, chopped up its roots, and left it lying there with a couple empty cans of red stripe and a wine bottle.
And the net effect of the last four years is that they're now doing worse.
Ouch.
Labour doing well where they need to.
Of course nobody could possibly have predicted something like this might happen.
Which reminds me I need to change my profile picture.
Let’s not get too much in each others faces.
I'd say it's pretty likely that at the next General Election, the LDs and the Conservatives will both end up in the 40s. Albeit, I'd be quite surprised if the LDs actually gained the seat.
And you're right. I should get therapy, that would enable me to cuddle up to a spined loach with the same affection I would have for an adorable little otter.
The LibDems are far better in theory than they are in practice.
https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/04/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2015-and-2016/
https://electionsetc.com/2013/05/01/local-elections-vote-shares-the-bbc-pns-and-rallings-thrasher-nev-compared/
Hmmm... Labour share and swing not really there for the general is it?
Some evidence of that dynamic in the midlands, too.
However, you are clearly prejudiced against this VERY cute little whatever-it-is, just because it's otter-bait?
What we have seen is a relatively low % of votes for the LDs delivering a lot a lot of seats. Which is how the party always used to operate in GEs. That stopped after 2015, which was gift week for the Tories.
If widespread tactical voting against the Tories is back - and we are seeing that across the board - then of course it presages a Labour victory. Not a Heathener landslide, but it never was going to be.
https://electionsetc.com/2013/05/01/local-elections-vote-shares-the-bbc-pns-and-rallings-thrasher-nev-compared/
Lib Dems were defending 16, Conservatives 1 and Green 1.
One ward changed hands. The Greens won Clarence for the first time (previously solid Lib Dem).
No improvements for the Conservatives. Sorry @JACK_W
This thread has left the count and gone home
Lab +264
Con -470
LD +151
IND -38
Grn +105
RA -4
So, if the 2nd half matched the first it will be -940 for the Tories by the end.
I cannot see this result as being bad for anyone but the Conservatives.
Would you be relieved to learn, I’ll never post the word Dudley again? Ever?
Oh, and and a twat to boot.
Perhaps the tautology was worthwhile
To be honest, I'm a tad sceptical about any projection that says the two main parties would only pick up 61% of the vote between them across GB, based on English local election results from the provinces only.
Rather intriguing though if those figures stand. With the Conservatives down only 2 on 2019 you wouldn't expect them to be well on course for 800+ losses. It just shows that both Labour, LD and Green votes are being distributed more efficiently than previously to pick up local government seats.
Apart from "twat", of course. I'm not sure whether that's an improvement on your last effort - "wanker" - or not ...
Lab Minority