Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.
Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He… https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057
He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
Wagner’s statement was released several hours after Prigozhin himself published an explicit video rant he filmed on May 4, in which he stands beside the bodies of dozens of Wagnerites and directly dresses down Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov. “Those are soldiers we lost today. Their blood is still fresh,” Prigozhin rages. “And now listen to me, fuckers. They were someone’s sons or fathers. You, fuckers, who don’t give us ammo, will burn in hell. We have a lack of shells … Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the fuck are our shells? Look at them, bitches.” https://www.politico.eu/article/massive-split-russia-military-forces-wagner-vow-quit-bakhmut-ukraine-war-yevgeny-prigozhin/
Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.
Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He… https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057
Daily Kos had a write up on possible axes for the Ukranian offensive. These include Northern Lughansk, and South to the Azov coast, but also the intriguing one of Donetsk itself.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
Labour has had a few stonking results, but there are a lot more areas where they haven’t taken anything from the Tories at all. Which might be of concern?
If you are using Worcester as your example, where Labour achieved a measly 1 seat gain? Not good enough for a general election win?
The LLG took 7 seats from the Tories in Worcester, and Labour well placed as the challenger to take the Tory seat.
Sure, after Corbyn ratnered the Labour brand and left them more than 120 seat wins from an overall majority, Labour were left with a huge electoral hurdle. But when the dust settles on this election, and the situation in westminster seats like Worcester are analysed the overall majority from this position is definitely on, despite how these results may at first glance appear patchy for Labour.
As bad as the results are at the moment for the Conservatives, I am hearing that there may well be a sting in the tail among the results coming in later this afternoon.
When the real blue wall demolition gets going with Lib Dem sledgehammers.
Looking that way
What is interesting so far is the Greens - over half of the LDs (so far) yet with a fraction of the seats going into the contest.
Also, one word of caution for Labour in the West Midlands - the results so far are not great. The only seat where there has been meaningful change in Labour taking Con seats is in Tamworth, which is Chris Pincher's seat so might be down to that factor.
Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.
It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.
So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.
What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.
If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
Labour has had a few stonking results, but there are a lot more areas where they haven’t taken anything from the Tories at all. Which might be of concern?
If you are using Worcester as your example, where Labour achieved a measly 1 seat gain? Not good enough for a general election win?
The LLG took 7 seats from the Tories in Worcester, and Labour well placed as the challenger to take the Tory seat.
Sure, after Corbyn ratnered the Labour brand and left them more than 120 seat wins from an overall majority, Labour were left with a huge electoral hurdle. But when the dust settles on this election, and the situation in westminster seats like Worcester are analysed the overall majority from this position is definitely on, despite how these results may at first glance appear patchy for Labour.
He is the Tory equivalent of Angela Rayner. Can we have more Angela on the Telly to reduce the inevitable Labour majority please?
I think you grossly understate Rayner's appeal among important parts of the electorate Labour needs. She's a Marmite character, certainly, but actually a pretty important part of the picture as Prescott once was.
Prescott was a thug, but he had a certain gravitas. She has none. She is the type of joke figure that only politics promotes to high office. She is the Nadine Dorries of the Labour Party.
Nah, she is a star. Disliked by snobs, but a real talent and her own person. If she had stood instead of the rather drippy RLB, she would be leader now.
If only.. Labour would lose badly. I don't think I know a single person who thinks well of her.
I love her
She's done OK since the Tories accidentally turned her into the Sharon Stone of UK politics. Money can't buy PR like that.
Yes, my sense was that Skirtgate ended up being a big net positive for her, despite the headlines. She certainly has many 'fans' from both side of the political spectrum on PB – although @MoonRabbit will tell you she needs to work on her hair...
Really? If I were asked 'list all the things which are attractive about Angela Rayner, in order', hair would be #1 on my list.
He is the Tory equivalent of Angela Rayner. Can we have more Angela on the Telly to reduce the inevitable Labour majority please?
I think you grossly understate Rayner's appeal among important parts of the electorate Labour needs. She's a Marmite character, certainly, but actually a pretty important part of the picture as Prescott once was.
Prescott was a thug, but he had a certain gravitas. She has none. She is the type of joke figure that only politics promotes to high office. She is the Nadine Dorries of the Labour Party.
Nah, she is a star. Disliked by snobs, but a real talent and her own person. If she had stood instead of the rather drippy RLB, she would be leader now.
If only.. Labour would lose badly. I don't think I know a single person who thinks well of her.
I love her
She's done OK since the Tories accidentally turned her into the Sharon Stone of UK politics. Money can't buy PR like that.
Yes, my sense was that Skirtgate ended up being a big net positive for her, despite the headlines. She certainly has many 'fans' from both side of the political spectrum on PB – although @MoonRabbit will tell you she needs to work on her hair...
It’s the fringe. Pass me some scissors and a comb.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
He is the Tory equivalent of Angela Rayner. Can we have more Angela on the Telly to reduce the inevitable Labour majority please?
I think you grossly understate Rayner's appeal among important parts of the electorate Labour needs. She's a Marmite character, certainly, but actually a pretty important part of the picture as Prescott once was.
Prescott was a thug, but he had a certain gravitas. She has none. She is the type of joke figure that only politics promotes to high office. She is the Nadine Dorries of the Labour Party.
Nah, she is a star. Disliked by snobs, but a real talent and her own person. If she had stood instead of the rather drippy RLB, she would be leader now.
If only.. Labour would lose badly. I don't think I know a single person who thinks well of her.
I love her
She's done OK since the Tories accidentally turned her into the Sharon Stone of UK politics. Money can't buy PR like that.
Yes, my sense was that Skirtgate ended up being a big net positive for her, despite the headlines. She certainly has many 'fans' from both side of the political spectrum on PB – although @MoonRabbit will tell you she needs to work on her hair...
Really? If I were asked 'list all the things which are attractive about Angela Rayner, in order', hair would be #1 on my list.
I like her hair but Miss Rabbit is not a fan as I understand it
As bad as the results are at the moment for the Conservatives, I am hearing that there may well be a sting in the tail among the results coming in later this afternoon.
When the real blue wall demolition gets going with Lib Dem sledgehammers.
Looking that way
What is interesting so far is the Greens - over half of the LDs (so far) yet with a fraction of the seats going into the contest.
Also, one word of caution for Labour in the West Midlands - the results so far are not great. The only seat where there has been meaningful change in Labour taking Con seats is in Tamworth, which is Chris Pincher's seat so might be down to that factor.
Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.
It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.
So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.
What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.
If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.
I note big Lab gains in Hartlepool, which is also by thirds. A very symbolic revival for Labour.
+6 out of 12 seats contested, and now 18/36 of the council. @roger will be delighted, I am sure!
He is the Tory equivalent of Angela Rayner. Can we have more Angela on the Telly to reduce the inevitable Labour majority please?
I think you grossly understate Rayner's appeal among important parts of the electorate Labour needs. She's a Marmite character, certainly, but actually a pretty important part of the picture as Prescott once was.
Prescott was a thug, but he had a certain gravitas. She has none. She is the type of joke figure that only politics promotes to high office. She is the Nadine Dorries of the Labour Party.
Nah, she is a star. Disliked by snobs, but a real talent and her own person. If she had stood instead of the rather drippy RLB, she would be leader now.
If only.. Labour would lose badly. I don't think I know a single person who thinks well of her.
I love her
She's done OK since the Tories accidentally turned her into the Sharon Stone of UK politics. Money can't buy PR like that.
Yes, my sense was that Skirtgate ended up being a big net positive for her, despite the headlines. She certainly has many 'fans' from both side of the political spectrum on PB – although @MoonRabbit will tell you she needs to work on her hair...
Really? If I were asked 'list all the things which are attractive about Angela Rayner, in order', hair would be #1 on my list.
I like her dress sense. Distinctive and individual, and well chosen.
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
As bad as the results are at the moment for the Conservatives, I am hearing that there may well be a sting in the tail among the results coming in later this afternoon.
When the real blue wall demolition gets going with Lib Dem sledgehammers.
Looking that way
What is interesting so far is the Greens - over half of the LDs (so far) yet with a fraction of the seats going into the contest.
Also, one word of caution for Labour in the West Midlands - the results so far are not great. The only seat where there has been meaningful change in Labour taking Con seats is in Tamworth, which is Chris Pincher's seat so might be down to that factor.
Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.
It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.
So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.
What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.
If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.
There's potentially an interesting bit of narrative here.
We know that 2021 was peak Boris/trough Keir. In councils electing by thirds, those seats gave the Conservatives a decent cushion; a lot of councils needed a miracle to change hands this year (see Redditch, Thurrock, there must be others.)
But some of those 2021 elections were actually delayed from 2020 and the plague, and return to their normal cycle next time. So the baseline for the 2024 locals will be high for the Conservatives, low for Labour. Not ideal for the blue team when there's a General Election expected six months later.
One reflection so far (sorry if this already been posted): the results vindicate Starmer’s ambivalence about Brexit. Brexit supporters seem to be okay voting labour again.
Which is, I think, good for the country. Perhaps we are finally starting to move on from Brexit (and can continue to build a more sensible relationship with Europe)
The results show Red Wall Brexiteers happy to vote for “please in name of God give me an affirmative ref” Starmer’s Labour.
Moving on from the Brexit anger down in the blue wall?
Nah.
Bregret is the double whammy for the Tories. Failure in the Red Wall and continuing resentment in the Blue Wall.
Yes.
How or when does blaming Tories for everything because of Brexit actually end?
If anything “ Bregret double whammy - Failure in the Red Wall and continuing resentment in the Blue Wall.” Seems to be gathering steam, not abating
I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.
I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!
Go live in a caravan on Canvey Island, then you'll be safe and secure in the last redoubt
Having been, many years ago, a Liberal council candidate on Canvey I can agree with that. Canvey is nowadays run by the Canvey Island Independence Party.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
As bad as the results are at the moment for the Conservatives, I am hearing that there may well be a sting in the tail among the results coming in later this afternoon.
When the real blue wall demolition gets going with Lib Dem sledgehammers.
Looking that way
What is interesting so far is the Greens - over half of the LDs (so far) yet with a fraction of the seats going into the contest.
Also, one word of caution for Labour in the West Midlands - the results so far are not great. The only seat where there has been meaningful change in Labour taking Con seats is in Tamworth, which is Chris Pincher's seat so might be down to that factor.
Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.
It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.
So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.
What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.
If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.
There's potentially an interesting bit of narrative here.
We know that 2021 was peak Boris/trough Keir. In councils electing by thirds, those seats gave the Conservatives a decent cushion; a lot of councils needed a miracle to change hands this year (see Redditch, Thurrock, there must be others.)
But some of those 2021 elections were actually delayed from 2020 and the plague, and return to their normal cycle next time. So the baseline for the 2024 locals will be high for the Conservatives, low for Labour. Not ideal for the blue team when there's a General Election expected six months later.
And 2021 is also the baseline for 2025, perhaps a few short months after a GE. If there's any kind of honeymoon that could easily be a somewhat painful night for the Tories as well.
As bad as the results are at the moment for the Conservatives, I am hearing that there may well be a sting in the tail among the results coming in later this afternoon.
When the real blue wall demolition gets going with Lib Dem sledgehammers.
Looking that way
What is interesting so far is the Greens - over half of the LDs (so far) yet with a fraction of the seats going into the contest.
Also, one word of caution for Labour in the West Midlands - the results so far are not great. The only seat where there has been meaningful change in Labour taking Con seats is in Tamworth, which is Chris Pincher's seat so might be down to that factor.
Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.
It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.
So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.
What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.
If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.
There's potentially an interesting bit of narrative here.
We know that 2021 was peak Boris/trough Keir. In councils electing by thirds, those seats gave the Conservatives a decent cushion; a lot of councils needed a miracle to change hands this year (see Redditch, Thurrock, there must be others.)
But some of those 2021 elections were actually delayed from 2020 and the plague, and return to their normal cycle next time. So the baseline for the 2024 locals will be high for the Conservatives, low for Labour. Not ideal for the blue team when there's a General Election expected six months later.
But also of course, over time, over decades, seats do trend in different directions, some trend away from you, others you never thought of come into play. Labour really with a shot at Aldershot, anyone? So pointing to seats from a quarter of a century ago like that, might be a teeny bit disingenuous.
Or just utterly desperate to find a chink of sunlight.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
I agree with you. Badenoch shorter odds than Braverman.
But as Professor C would say, we can’t possibly know for certain.
A rare positive result for the Tories, in the Bolsover constituency.
"Britain Elects @BritainElects Clowne West (Bolsover) council election result:
CON: 54.8% (+30.5) LAB: 45.2% (+12.5)
Conservative GAIN from Independent."
Yes Andy. But the actual Bolsover Story is how many extra seats Labour have won there, how the council now looks, and it has a sitting Tory up for election in a little over 12 months. Labour went up by eleven, Tories down by 11, the council is 31 Lab, 3 Con.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.
Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He… https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057
Daily Kos had a write up on possible axes for the Ukranian offensive. These include Northern Lughansk, and South to the Azov coast, but also the intriguing one of Donetsk itself.
Deliberate fog of war IMO, but an interesting thought.
That discussion emphasises the danger to Russia if the Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut failed to stand up to a Ukrainian counter-attack. If the Wagner mercenaries are calling the Russian command "fuckers" and proposing to withdraw ...?
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said Labour's local elections performance was "not the kind of performance Blair was achieving" before the party's landslide general election victory in 1997.
I mean things can get better or worse for each party as counting continues, and a party can buck the trend due to local issues here and there. But the trend is not fundamentally going to change, and many of the results are interesting in themselves (e.g. the Labour's win in Plymouth is pretty clearly relevant to target seats).
We also analyse by-elections extensively when that's about 30-40k votes, and opinion polls when it's 1000 people.
Ha ha. One of those candidates who was standing in two places 160 miles apart (presumably to do his bit as a paper candidate) has accidentally been elected in both. Good luck with attending council meetings...
Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.
Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He… https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057
He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
It's pretty bonkers either that that is true, or it isn't and this is some bizarre double bluff.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
There's clearly less enthusiasm for Starmers Labour Party than there was for Blair's but significantly mote to get rid of Sunak's Tory government than there was to get rid of Major's. So it'll be interesting to see how the cards fall
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
Labour has had a few stonking results, but there are a lot more areas where they haven’t taken anything from the Tories at all. Which might be of concern?
If you are using Worcester as your example, where Labour achieved a measly 1 seat gain? Not good enough for a general election win?
The LLG took 7 seats from the Tories in Worcester, and Labour well placed as the challenger to take the Tory seat.
Sure, after Corbyn ratnered the Labour brand and left them more than 120 seat wins from an overall majority, Labour were left with a huge electoral hurdle. But when the dust settles on this election, and the situation in westminster seats like Worcester are analysed the overall majority from this position is definitely on, despite how these results may at first glance appear patchy for Labour.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
What you're both ignoring is that the situation in Britain is FAR FAR worse in 2023/4 than it was in 1996/7.
The economy was doing great in 1997. Now it's shit and we all know it.
The tories will get hammered because they have been at the helm and some of it is their fault.
p.s. incredibly patronising remark about Scotland by the way
Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.
Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He… https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057
He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
It's pretty bonkers either that that is true, or it isn't and this is some bizarre double bluff.
Someone on ARRSE pointed out the similarities between Wagner and the Italian mercenaries.
Who were sometimes sabotaged by their *employers* to reduce the danger of a successful mercenary general becoming political….
The other possibility is that shell shortages are meaning supplies going only to the Army.
Could well be both - Wagner is setup to fail as a buffer for the Ukrainian offensive, protect the regular army (both casualties and reputation) and Putin.
At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!
Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.
Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.
But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
Fans of the big two often deride votes as mere protest votes. I am often tempted and occassionally do vote Green as a protest vote and think it at least as worthy as a vote for the big two, even though I believe in little of their actual manifesto.
I find it hard to believe that anyone could look at the Conservatives over the past few years, contrast them with the Greens, and conclude that the Conservatives are the “serious party” with a consistent message while the Greens are the flip-floppy ones. What short memories people have…
The Greens have a consistent message. It's just an unpleasant one.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
You’re always going to get the odd surprise result . The Tories are set to lose over 1,000 seats . The real meltdown in their seats will gather pace this afternoon.
I said a few days ago that the Lib Dems will do very well in the Blue Wall and I expect some incredible results later .
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
Solihull looks good for the Conservatives as well. The urban West Midlands seems quite strong for them.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
You’re always going to get the odd surprise result . The Tories are set to lose over 1,000 seats . The real meltdown in their seats will gather pace this afternoon.
I said a few days ago that the Lib Dems will do very well in the Blue Wall and I expect some incredible results later .
There will be some incredible results for the Lib Dems and some piss poor results.
At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!
Greens also continued their rise in Exeter, gaining two more councillors to have 6 in total now.
Greens have had a good night so far. I’m a non-activist member and what I’m hearing on the Greenvine is general happiness with seats held and won. Their candidate selection has improved and, like the Lib Dems, they tend to do their job as councillors (unlike the typical hard right protest votes, who by-and-large are useless).
Overnight greens picked up seats from Labour in Labour dominated councils, 4 from Tories in Worcester, to overtake Tories as second party. They can win anywhere. They are winning everywhere. It may be their first two seats on the council this time. Big next time it’s up to eight. Before long up to second. They are like the red weed from War of the Worlds.
But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
Fans of the big two often deride votes as mere protest votes. I am often tempted and occassionally do vote Green as a protest vote and think it at least as worthy as a vote for the big two, even though I believe in little of their actual manifesto.
I find it hard to believe that anyone could look at the Conservatives over the past few years, contrast them with the Greens, and conclude that the Conservatives are the “serious party” with a consistent message while the Greens are the flip-floppy ones. What short memories people have…
The Greens have a consistent message. It's just an unpleasant one.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said Labour's local elections performance was "not the kind of performance Blair was achieving" before the party's landslide general election victory in 1997.
Oh dear, I have just looked at the weather forecast for tomorrow. It looks like Diana's tears will rain on Charles's parade.
I am hoping fervently for torrential rain over all of London for many many hours Saturday.
It rained for his Mum’s coronation; people still lined the route. I was selling programmes in Regent St. Sold out. I wouldn’t do it now! Couldn’t anyway; housebound.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Results for Labour in the rest of the West Midlands region have been pretty good so far in the context of the GE. Walsall is the only one that deserves to be called bad. I expect Wolverhampton to be relatively poor because of local issues - the state of the City centre.
Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.
*When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
Still impressive, if true. Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
Ballistic is an easier problem than air launched, though, for detection, calculation of trajectory for intercept, and time available for those tasks. Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
Labour has had a few stonking results, but there are a lot more areas where they haven’t taken anything from the Tories at all. Which might be of concern?
If you are using Worcester as your example, where Labour achieved a measly 1 seat gain? Not good enough for a general election win?
The LLG took 7 seats from the Tories in Worcester, and Labour well placed as the challenger to take the Tory seat.
Sure, after Corbyn ratnered the Labour brand and left them more than 120 seat wins from an overall majority, Labour were left with a huge electoral hurdle. But when the dust settles on this election, and the situation in westminster seats like Worcester are analysed the overall majority from this position is definitely on, despite how these results may at first glance appear patchy for Labour.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
What you're both ignoring is that the situation in Britain is FAR FAR worse in 2023/4 than it was in 1996/7.
The economy was doing great in 1997. Now it's shit and we all know it.
The tories will get hammered because they have been at the helm and some of it is their fault.
p.s. incredibly patronising remark about Scotland by the way
The economy was “doing great in 1997” after 18 years of uninterrupted Tory government
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
There was a discussion on here a few days ago about the how the culture and history of the West Midlands in particular is more distinct from the M62 belt and North East than many (down south, but in the north too) assume. There are demographic parallels, but Walsall is not Wythenshawe, nor Dudley Doncaster. The Conservatives, in their current incarnation, scratch an in itch there - whereas you feel the vote was somewhat 'lent' in the other traditionally-Labour areas outside the WMs that went blue.
As with the LDs in Hull, I don't doubt there's a 'good hardworking councillors replacing ineffective dinosaurs' effect too.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
What you're both ignoring is that the situation in Britain is FAR FAR worse in 2023/4 than it was in 1996/7.
The economy was doing great in 1997. Now it's shit and we all know it.
The tories will get hammered because they have been at the helm and some of it is their fault.
p.s. incredibly patronising remark about Scotland by the way
The economy was “doing great in 1997” after 18 years of uninterrupted Tory government
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
It's certainly better than 30mph. There are plenty of 20mph areas where a 25mph limit would make more sense, but it's hardly a hill to die on.
First three wards declared in Southampton (all out due to new boundaries). Banister & Polygon and Bargate easy Labour wins as expected, Lib Dems take all three 3 seats comfortably in Bassett which is traditionally very safe Conservative. There's a high turnout in Portswood which is a big Green target.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
Which party were the ones who stopped ol' Jezza Clarkson's restaurant expanding from ?
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
What you're both ignoring is that the situation in Britain is FAR FAR worse in 2023/4 than it was in 1996/7.
The economy was doing great in 1997. Now it's shit and we all know it.
The tories will get hammered because they have been at the helm and some of it is their fault.
p.s. incredibly patronising remark about Scotland by the way
The economy was “doing great in 1997” after 18 years of uninterrupted Tory government
Aren’t you confirming Heathener’s point?
That would be a first
More importantly “Only You” by Yazoo is an absolutely perfect pop song. Poignant and moving and simple and 3 minutes long
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
It's certainly better than 30mph. There are plenty of 20mph areas where a 25mph limit would make more sense, but it's hardly a hill to die on.
Agreed, although 20mph limit means lots of people will do 22-23mph. And it makes no meaningful difference to how quickly you arrive – that in town is dictated by traffic and luck with the lights sequencing rather than 20mph or 30mph limits.
Remarkable comments on Sky News from a financial expert when asked about why UK bank shares were not under pressure in the way that bank shares are in the US. Before you start to feel smug...........
His point was that UK banks are now more akin to building societies since the bulk of their lending is on domestic mortgages (I guess we knew that). What was more disturbing was his claim that these were basically risk-free assets since you had things like the mortgage guarantee scheme and implicit acceptance that the government won't allow house prices to fall. The taxpayer will be on the hook. So if you wonder why we have a load of expensive houses and a lack of dynamic companies in the UK economy there you go!
I cannot understand why we see this problem as so insoluble. If earnings rise by 5% a year and house prices are stagnant the ratio of earnings to prices comes down quite quickly.
Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.
Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He… https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057
He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
Wagner’s statement was released several hours after Prigozhin himself published an explicit video rant he filmed on May 4, in which he stands beside the bodies of dozens of Wagnerites and directly dresses down Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov. “Those are soldiers we lost today. Their blood is still fresh,” Prigozhin rages. “And now listen to me, fuckers. They were someone’s sons or fathers. You, fuckers, who don’t give us ammo, will burn in hell. We have a lack of shells … Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the fuck are our shells? Look at them, bitches.” https://www.politico.eu/article/massive-split -russia-military-forces-wagner-vow-quit-bakhmut-ukraine-war-yevgeny-prigozhin/
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
The trigger seems to have been a relatively recent decision to extend deadlines for water companies to hit clean-up targets.
Yep I don't blame the opposition for jumping on this and making capital out of it but I kind of expect better of the PB conclave.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
The trigger seems to have been a relatively recent decision to extend deadlines for water companies to hit clean-up targets.
Yep I don't blame the opposition for jumping on this and making capital out of it but I kind of expect better of the PB conclave.
It was the Tories voting to overturn the Lords ammendment to clean up the rivers that made it an issue.
Tories loosened rules via Brexit "freedoms" in order to pay shareholders rather than fix infrastructure is the meme.
Most of the "shareholders" are the pension schemes that doubtless a large number of people on here are benefitting/will benefit from.
Perhaps the wastrels and moaners who take early retirement should take one less holiday a year and give it to a river charity to redress the balance of their greed?
Most of our water companies are overseas owned aren't they? Hence the dividends go there?
Last time I looked they were PLCs. Pension funds like utility companies. Utility greed= pensioner greed
According to these good people:-
The English water companies are more than 90% owned by shareholders abroad, for example:
• Wessex Water is 100% owned by a Malaysian company, YTL • Northumbrian Water is owned by Hong Kong businessman Li Ka Shing • Thames Water is partly owned by investors from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, China and Australia
Nothing like a bit of selective argument. Interesting though, thank you. My point still holds though. A large amount of whingers about private company dividends are people sitting on big fat pensions. Pure hypocrisy.
How is it hypocrisy to argue for tougher regulation of water companies, whether or not your pension fund (if you have one) holds shares in them ?
That's the most stupid argument I've heard today.
It wasn't my argument. It was an observation that many who bleat on about the outrageous situation of utilities issuing dividends are often the same economically inactive folk who laze around while sitting on massive pensions. Not that hard to follow really is it Einstein? I guess may apply to you?
And on that note I will wish you adieu as I would like to do some work and have already spent far too much time on here. Fun though it is. See you all soon
Yeah , hopefully not too soon, bored to tears with your mince.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Results for Labour in the rest of the West Midlands region have been pretty good so far in the context of the GE. Walsall is the only one that deserves to be called bad. I expect Wolverhampton to be relatively poor because of local issues - the state of the City centre.
I don't know what the issue is in Solihull, but the Conservatives are hammering the Greens.
A big difference from the mid 90's is that the Conservatives were completely wiped out in urban England by 1997 (apart from four London boroughs). Even after today, the Conservatives will still have quite a big councillor base there.
Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.
Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He… https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057
He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
Just they are getting hammered and so needs a good excuse to run away.
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
Ignoring the politics, and indeed the humanity, it does seem to me that children and even some adults have recently become cavalier about wandering into the road.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
1979, 1997, 2010. If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while. History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
Which party were the ones who stopped ol' Jezza Clarkson's restaurant expanding from ?
Current LibDem/Labour/Green coalition, though I'm not sure that the initial decision wasn't taken under the previous Conservative administration - I've not followed it that closely.
The Tories are set to lose over 1,000 seats . The real meltdown in their seats will gather pace this afternoon.
Sounds unpleasant.
Good.
The Conservative party needs to rediscover conservatism rather than the populist rabble rousing drivel it currently propagates. Time in the political wilderness is badly needed.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.
Labour spinners please explain.
West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
Results for Labour in the rest of the West Midlands region have been pretty good so far in the context of the GE. Walsall is the only one that deserves to be called bad. I expect Wolverhampton to be relatively poor because of local issues - the state of the City centre.
I don't know what the issue is in Solihull, but the Conservatives are hammering the Greens.
A big difference from the mid 90's is that the Conservatives were completely wiped out in urban England by 1997 (apart from four London boroughs). Even after today, the Conservatives will still have quite a big councillor base there.
There's a big "considerably richer than youw" Tory tradition in Greater Birmingham. It might provide some temporary comfort for them but will be largely lost amid the shellacking they are getting nationwide.
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
I agree that 'Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s'. I think Sunak's Tories are pretty much as bad as Major's but maybe I'm biased.
Where the Tories do have an issue imo is: what have they achieved for their 13/14 years in power?
Major's Tories could point to the radical changes of Thatcher era and a clear improvement in living standards and in the economic standing of the country. All Sunak can point to is (an increasingly unpopular) Brexit. Everything else has stagnated or gone backwards (and half the country think Brexit was a backward step). That is why they should, and will I hope, be kicked out.
A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
There was a discussion on here a few days ago about the how the culture and history of the West Midlands in particular is more distinct from the M62 belt and North East than many (down south, but in the north too) assume. There are demographic parallels, but Walsall is not Wythenshawe, nor Dudley Doncaster. The Conservatives, in their current incarnation, scratch an in itch there - whereas you feel the vote was somewhat 'lent' in the other traditionally-Labour areas outside the WMs that went blue.
As with the LDs in Hull, I don't doubt there's a 'good hardworking councillors replacing ineffective dinosaurs' effect too.
You appear to implicitly accept the apparent paradigm that the result in Dudley is apparently "bad". Please explain why a result across the council of Lab 13(+1), Con 12(-1), Others 0 is "bad" in a local authority where all 4 parliamentary seats are now held by the Conservatives, none of which would fall in the GE unless the swing was more than 14%. For Labour to be winning more local government seats than the Conservatives in the borough strikes me as being pretty good.
He is the Tory equivalent of Angela Rayner. Can we have more Angela on the Telly to reduce the inevitable Labour majority please?
I think you grossly understate Rayner's appeal among important parts of the electorate Labour needs. She's a Marmite character, certainly, but actually a pretty important part of the picture as Prescott once was.
Prescott was a thug, but he had a certain gravitas. She has none. She is the type of joke figure that only politics promotes to high office. She is the Nadine Dorries of the Labour Party.
Nah, she is a star. Disliked by snobs, but a real talent and her own person. If she had stood instead of the rather drippy RLB, she would be leader now.
If only.. Labour would lose badly. I don't think I know a single person who thinks well of her.
I love her
She's done OK since the Tories accidentally turned her into the Sharon Stone of UK politics. Money can't buy PR like that.
Yes, my sense was that Skirtgate ended up being a big net positive for her, despite the headlines. She certainly has many 'fans' from both side of the political spectrum on PB – although @MoonRabbit will tell you she needs to work on her hair...
Really? If I were asked 'list all the things which are attractive about Angela Rayner, in order', hair would be #1 on my list.
I like her hair but Miss Rabbit is not a fan as I understand it
Comments
“Those are soldiers we lost today. Their blood is still fresh,” Prigozhin rages. “And now listen to me, fuckers. They were someone’s sons or fathers. You, fuckers, who don’t give us ammo, will burn in hell. We have a lack of shells … Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the fuck are our shells? Look at them, bitches.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/massive-split-russia-military-forces-wagner-vow-quit-bakhmut-ukraine-war-yevgeny-prigozhin/
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/1/2166839/-Ukraine-Update-Bakhmut-could-be-Russia-s-glass-jaw
Deliberate fog of war IMO, but an interesting thought.
It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.
So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.
What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.
If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.
+6 out of 12 seats contested, and now 18/36 of the council. @roger will be delighted, I am sure!
Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
We know that 2021 was peak Boris/trough Keir. In councils electing by thirds, those seats gave the Conservatives a decent cushion; a lot of councils needed a miracle to change hands this year (see Redditch, Thurrock, there must be others.)
But some of those 2021 elections were actually delayed from 2020 and the plague, and return to their normal cycle next time. So the baseline for the 2024 locals will be high for the Conservatives, low for Labour. Not ideal for the blue team when there's a General Election expected six months later.
How or when does blaming Tories for everything because of Brexit actually end?
If anything “ Bregret double whammy - Failure in the Red Wall and continuing resentment in the Blue Wall.” Seems to be gathering steam, not abating
"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Clowne West (Bolsover) council election result:
CON: 54.8% (+30.5)
LAB: 45.2% (+12.5)
Conservative GAIN from Independent."
Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
Or just utterly desperate to find a chink of sunlight.
But as Professor C would say, we can’t possibly know for certain.
https://meetings.cotswold.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=384&RPID=713440
LibDem paper candidate takes the Tetbury and Upton Ward from the Tories
Only problem is that he is also a sitting councillor in the Ordsall ward on Salford council...
https://sccdemocracy.salford.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=358
Somewhat surprisingly, it's looking as if the Conservatives will hold East Cambridgeshire, which was a top Lib Dem target.
A 45% swing Cons to LibDem!
The man is one of those who exemplifies everything that stinks in the tory party.
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Publow and Whitchurch (Bath and North East Somerset) council election result:
LDEM: 61.9% (+55.0)
CON: 24.1% (-35.6)
LAB: 8.1% (-7.3)
GRN: 6.0% (-12.2)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Turnout: 36.9% (+1.8)
p.s. actually there was a Cons defection involved so maybe not
He has to do historically well just to get to a majority
So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution
And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t
I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
https://www.mancunianmatters.co.uk/news/05052023-tameside-local-election-2023-council-seat-in-ward-of-hyde-godley-decided-by-lot-after-votes-were-tied/
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1654400949970956288
Read more ⤵️
https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/05/local-election-results-2023-live-updates-uk-councils-latest/
I mean things can get better or worse for each party as counting continues, and a party can buck the trend due to local issues here and there. But the trend is not fundamentally going to change, and many of the results are interesting in themselves (e.g. the Labour's win in Plymouth is pretty clearly relevant to target seats).
We also analyse by-elections extensively when that's about 30-40k votes, and opinion polls when it's 1000 people.
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1654425829403766788?s=20
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg
Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.
Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
Labour spinners please explain.
The economy was doing great in 1997. Now it's shit and we all know it.
The tories will get hammered because they have been at the helm and some of it is their fault.
p.s. incredibly patronising remark about Scotland by the way
Who were sometimes sabotaged by their *employers* to reduce the danger of a successful mercenary general becoming political….
The other possibility is that shell shortages are meaning supplies going only to the Army.
Could well be both - Wagner is setup to fail as a buffer for the Ukrainian offensive, protect the regular army (both casualties and reputation) and Putin.
It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
I said a few days ago that the Lib Dems will do very well in the Blue Wall and I expect some incredible results later .
I wouldn’t do it now! Couldn’t anyway; housebound.
"Police Scotland is planning to introduce a new clean-shaven policy for frontline officers, according to correspondence seen by the BBC.
It means hundreds of officers will have to shave off their beards and moustaches by the end of the month.
Four are understood to be taking legal action in relation to the policy.
Police Scotland said it was necessary so officers and staff could wear protective FFP3 masks which require users to be clean-shaven.
The policy, which also covers civilian staff in frontline roles, has been approved by the chief constable and is due to be introduced on 29 May."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65482560
Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
As with the LDs in Hull, I don't doubt there's a 'good hardworking councillors replacing ineffective dinosaurs' effect too.
There are plenty of 20mph areas where a 25mph limit would make more sense, but it's hardly a hill to die on.
More importantly “Only You” by Yazoo is an absolutely perfect pop song. Poignant and moving and simple and 3 minutes long
I am now listening to
https://music.apple.com/gb/album/y-tú-qué-has-hecho/1467829048?i=1467829191
Which is almost as good
His point was that UK banks are now more akin to building societies since the bulk of their lending is on domestic mortgages (I guess we knew that). What was more disturbing was his claim that these were basically risk-free assets since you had things like the mortgage guarantee scheme and implicit acceptance that the government won't allow house prices to fall. The taxpayer will be on the hook. So if you wonder why we have a load of expensive houses and a lack of dynamic companies in the UK economy there you go!
I cannot understand why we see this problem as so insoluble. If earnings rise by 5% a year and house prices are stagnant the ratio of earnings to prices comes down quite quickly.
If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while.
History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
A big difference from the mid 90's is that the Conservatives were completely wiped out in urban England by 1997 (apart from four London boroughs). Even after today, the Conservatives will still have quite a big councillor base there.
swearing allegiance to the king is "an invitation, not a command".
Stand easy, troops.
The Conservative party needs to rediscover conservatism rather than the populist rabble rousing drivel it currently propagates. Time in the political wilderness is badly needed.
Where the Tories do have an issue imo is: what have they achieved for their 13/14 years in power?
Major's Tories could point to the radical changes of Thatcher era and a clear improvement in living standards and in the economic standing of the country. All Sunak can point to is (an increasingly unpopular) Brexit. Everything else has stagnated or gone backwards (and half the country think Brexit was a backward step).
That is why they should, and will I hope, be kicked out.