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The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com
The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com
Labour has continued to make larger gains in areas with fewer university graduates, while the Conservatives are going back fastest in areas with more… #LocalElections2023 @SkyNews pic.twitter.com/85r8Njng0j
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Thanks for this Mike.
The Times are suggesting that trouble is now brewing for Rishi Sunak in the tory party. I think we're going to see more in-fighting and the right wing of the party attempting to wrest back control. This is what the Times are reporting.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/local-elections-2023-tory-right-plotting-to-take-back-control-after-drubbing-7jkrxkgjp
£££
Sunak is losing the very people that Boris reached and that's fatal for their chances because they're also losing middle England to Labour and the LibDems.
I don’t expect the Nev to narrow throughout the day, grow ifanything.
They are probably on course for a small majority, but let's see how it looks by the end of the day.
[You also sort of wonder if it would have better for Rishi had council tax rises, income tax rises, energy bill increases and interest rate rises not all hit together in the last few weeks.]
There is nothing at the moment to suggest to me that the Conservatives are going to retain power. For us punters you obviously can't say it's 0% but it's not a lot above.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/keir-starmer-doubts-loudest-labour-shadow-cabinet-2316816
I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.
But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.
The Conservatives have lost a third of their council seats so far – a hammering by any standard. If that trend continues the party is likely to post a final tally that rivals the debacle of 1995 that left them limping towards a massacre at the general election two years later.
(absolutely not a fan of coalition-era LibDems myself but there you go)
Humza Yousaf became embroiled in another SNP crisis last night after seven councillors were poised to leave the party over its handling of sexual harassment allegations.
A delegation at North Lanarkshire council accused the SNP hierarchy of failing to investigate alleged cover-ups and bullying in the wake of sexual misconduct claims against their former leader, Jordan Linden.
The gang of seven had alleged numerous failings by the local leadership team, including a failure to investigate sexual misconduct and “abuse of power”.
They highlighted that many SNP figures accused of inaction were employed by senior MSPs and MPs, including Neil Gray, the economy secretary, who ran Yousaf’s leadership campaign. Airdrie South, which is in Gray’s constituency, now has no SNP councillors because of the mass resignations.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-hit-by-allegations-of-sex-pest-cover-up-2nczqjjq6
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000041
So doubt is beginning to creep in….
But then I would hope that, wouldn't I?
Seriously though, Michael Thrasher is usually pretty balanced and insightful.
When you look at what has followed 2015, the impact of the LibDems was mostly keeping it at bay for five years.
Nothing is ever 100%.
Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E06000002#mayor-scoreboard
"Over the past few weeks, Tory insiders had said losing 1,000 seats was possible. That was expectation management – designed to make a slightly better result look good.
But it’s quite possible that by the end of the day, the Conservatives could been looking at four figure losses."
The Tory vote has held up broadly in Coventry but Labours won Cheylesmore there which is a swing seat. Good hold in Bablake ward tho for the Tories.
All 3 seats in Cov are lab now and next GE tho.
That cannot be right as you have maintained for months the conservative party are heading to extinction
The LLG took 7 seats from the Tories in Worcester, and Labour well placed as the challenger to take the Tory seat.
Sure, after Corbyn ratnered the Labour brand and left them more than 120 seat wins from an overall majority, Labour were left with a huge electoral hurdle. But when the dust settles on this election, and the situation in westminster seats like Worcester are analysed the overall majority from this position is definitely on, despite how these results may at first glance appear patchy for Labour.
I would have voted to throw them out without hesitation if I was living there
Pure vandalism
I have just be reading through the thread and just want to say how amazing your contribution has been through the night
Excellent
Anyway, Worcester Woman has spoken:
"The Conservatives suffered a disastrous night in Worcester as Labour became the largest party on the city council for the first time in 23 years.
The Tories lost all seven seats they were defending and also fell behind the Green Party, which took four seats to become the second largest group."
UPDATE: Labour hails "seismic" win in Medway on a grim night for Rishi Sunak.
Labour source: "The Tory campaign was a total fucking shambles."
Labour take control of Medway for the first time this century. This is Rochester, Strood, Gillingham and Chatham - seats key to Blair's 1997 landslide.
Casino please explain.
46s
The hits keep coming for the Tories.
Lib Dems gain control of Windsor & Maidenhead from Tories.
"This is a huge win for the Lib Dems and a massive blow to Rishi Sunak," says party spokesperson.
It is simply ridiculous in these modern times
The age of subjication is long over
Labour needed to be 10 points ahead on NEV to be in a good position for the General Election.
Conservatives needed to lose 1000 seats before people could point and laugh about a Terrible Night For The Tories. (Not that people should point and laugh really. Good councillors, doing well for their patch, will have been kicked out last night for wearing the wrong rosette. It's nature's way, but not nice, whoever's involved.)
From what we've seen so far, is there a fair chance that both those boxes will be ticked?
Press releases and media statements changed a very subtle invitation to anyone else who wanted to join in within the order of service to something that it wasn't.
Of course, it will be too late for that to have any resonance now. Once the meme is out it is out.
Braintree in Essex is an interesting exception* to this, but I'm looking at Boston, Castle Point, East Lindsey and South Holland so far.
* And Medway in Kent. Though Medway might be London overspill finally showing up in elections.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000073
From Sam Coates Sky:
'Alarm bells sounding in Conservative HQ'
The Labour gain in Medway indicates the spread of Labour advances and "will sound an alarm bell in Conservative headquarters this morning", said deputy political editor Sam Coates.
"Kent should be the place where he can say the Tories are hanging on but that's clearly not true," he said.
Without the Tory stronghold, it is "not clear which bit of the electorate Rishi Sunak is making advances on".
The outgoing Medway council leader "put the blame for that firmly at the door of Rishi Sunak" and his messaging, said Coates.
He explained that in Kent and Essex "there is evidence of Labour doing much better than it has done for quite some years."
It has been a "difficult area" under Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband, so the result will be "heartening" for Keir Starmer's office.
"We're now at the sharp end of the results," added Coates.
Braintree 61% Brexit and since then will have had remainers move in from London too. Not really similar to the others.
As a very regular visitor (we keep our boat there) I’m not at all surprised by the Worcester vote.
But they are phoney. Their agenda and policies cannot appeal to Tory and Labour voters equally. As Starmer distances himself from woke and trans from nationalisation and resetting UK capitalism, Greens muscle in though the told hold. They pick up Tory seats by opposing sewage, house building on green belt. Greens are not achieving this by being a serious party with a serious manifesto, they are the archetypal protest vote, most likely on a single local issue.
Ok, it's early but I'll get me coat anyway.
Sunak remains their best hope and if he is reading the room then he has 18 months to reset our relationship with the EU and continue to make progress with the economy
Those siren voices for Johnson and Truss need to understand the wrong person is taking the can for their period in office
(I'm not saying Starmer is exactly great either but he's better than Sunak.)
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
Time to bring back Truss or Johnson.
Would take real political skill to turn expectations management into an exercise in self targeting.
Oh...
They weren't really meant to do that badly.
They are an interesting mix of alternative lifestyle neo-hippies, Corbynite refugees and Cameroonite Tories who care about global warming and shit in rivers. Difficult to unify, but not particularly needing to do so, at least not yet. I suspect that they will be good councilors.
The Lib Dem vote share looks like it’s stayed almost at a standstill, while the conservatives vote has declined a little. But huge numbers of seats are falling to the Lib Dems. This is the sight of the dam break in areas where the yellows came second in the last election. All it takes is a few points of Tory decline and they clean up across large swathes of the country.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
For me, it's a toss up between Bridgen and Pincher.
Seems the chances of a Labour majority haven't changed much.
The chances of the Tories retaining power have receded.
Labour will achieve the bar asked of them according to NEV.
However the PNS on BBC not showing a 10% lead or 40% last time I saw it.
Anyone wish to paste up the latest PNS?
There's "never give up" determination, and then there's Black Knight levels of delusion.
If you can’t report written facts better than a 14 year old gun nut from Nebraska with a MAGA poster on the wall of the basement, then you aren’t any better than him as a news source.
“The story is the story, not the facts” is Trump territory.
King to wear sandals at Coronation ?? ...
Some of the Tory advances Greg Hands pointed to...
Bassetlaw - Tories gained 4 & have 8 seats compared to Labour's 38.
Sandwell - Tories gained 2 & have 12 seats compared to Labour's 60.
🤔
If he really wanted to reach out to the Blue Wall voters they are losing he should be working hard to get Rory the ex Tory and some of the others back into the party.
Current Cons loss is 209 councillors out of 631 = 1/3rd of their seats.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news