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The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory. :)

    I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Starmer has a minority or majority government.

    Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.

    I'll probably regret asking this but what the hell let's live a little ... so what is that 'sanity' which Rishi Sunak is preventing the Tory Party rediscovering?
    A belief in aspiration, hard work and growing the economy. A belief in letting working people keep more of what they earn, and getting good pay rises from growth too.

    He also caved in totally to the NIMBY tendency and stood in the way of allowing more development and people to have a home of their own.

    Sunak is just interested in ever more bloating the welfare state for the expanding non-working pensioner client class, protecting the property value of those with property portfolios while jacking up taxes on work and having no objections to young people facing a future of being heavily taxed rent payers.

    He believes in nothing other than managed decline and protecting the interests of those who are already well off, rather than those who are aspirational which is when the Tories are at their best.
    Been a while since they were at their best then. Major, I guess, at a pinch?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    With 40% of councils declared the Tories have lost 300 seats. Maybe the remaining councils have more seats available than the ones so far.

    Outside chance of sub 1000 loses?
    Unless there are a higher percentage of losses in the remaining seats, and there is a higher percentage of Tory councillors at the moment, we seem to be on track for something like 750. Which is a lot given their starting point but not the biblical wipeouts of times past.
    I think your maths is wrong - almost exactly 1,000 formerly Tory seats declared so far and net loss running at 324. So looking more like 1,000 losses based on defending 3.365 total.

    If you're confident in "something like 750" get onto Betfair exchange quick as over 750 is trading at 1.01 and under at 21, so potentially a great opportunity for you there.
    My maths is we are currently on 96/230 councils declared (roughly 40%). Losses are currently just over 300 x2.5 =750.

    But I agree there is more to lose in the remaining councils so the attrition rate may go up. It depends if those areas are as hostile as some of those which have already voted and that might depend on how the LDs do as much as Labour.
    Your main mistake there is a lot of councils that declare early elect in thirds (less to count, for a start) and the all-up ones tend to be later, so the number of declared Councils is a misleading measure as quite a few of the already declared councils only had a dozen or so seats up.
    But they also tend to be urban. Will the Tories have done as badly in the shires? That is the question we still need answered.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
    From the very first Tweet in the thread, the one you linked to: "you are flooding the country with legal migration" is pretty racist. And note, its legal migration he's objecting to.

    But you can't see it, because you are yourself a racist.
    Yes yes yes. Yawn

    500,000 net migrants is the highest ever recorded in UK history. Some predict 2023 could see 700,000-1m. See Robert Colville in the Times

    You’re just a weirdo provincial dweeb who hates trans people
    Eh? I never bring up the trans debate, you do. And that racist weirdo you quoted did in that Twitter thread.

    As far as I'm concerned let people be who they are and so long as it doesn't violate any safeguarding call them by what they want to be called.

    If you want to be called Leah or Leon, we should all call you whatever you choose to be known as.
    I find your endless barely-disguised homophobia and transphobia quite distasteful

    But it is not for me to prohibit you, nor would i want to. If the mods think it is acceptable, so be it
    I don't agree with much of what Barty says but I have never seen any homophobia or transphobia from him, barely-diguised or otherwise.

    There is a poster on here who is frequently exhibiting barely-disguised racism though, someone who ramps up xenophobic tweeters.
    Perhaps it’s the phenomenon of being racist and phobic by being non-racist and nonphobic that the US Fuckwit Right memes about?

    So Black Lives Matter is racist and the Proud Boys aren’t. Or something….
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589
    IanB2 said:

    Sailed through the Channel Tunnel this morning. Who knew such was even possible?

    Well, Tom Cruise managed to get a helicopter through it in Mission Impossible 1, so it's obviously a multi-modal tunnel ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited May 2023
    kle4 said:

    ping said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If we paid MPs more we'd get better MPs precisely the same bunch just on more money.

    Like local councillors. Even with big increases in allowances since 2000, most of them are still animals or vegetables.
    What does your average councillor actually get in terms of money in the bank account, each month - and in terms of expenses?

    I genuinely have no idea.
    It varies massively (Wales I think is sensible and has a single rate). Some get 6-7k allowance per annum, others 14k+. Not including those with special responsibilities like leaders.
    Looking at my Dad's allowances it seems becoming a Lord Mayor pays nicely for that year !
    Fuck knows how you'd do it properly with a full time job though. Might be something I consider going for when I'm retired.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory. :)

    I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Starmer has a minority or majority government.

    Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.

    I'll probably regret asking this but what the hell let's live a little ... so what is that 'sanity' which Rishi Sunak is preventing the Tory Party rediscovering?
    A belief in aspiration, hard work and growing the economy. A belief in letting working people keep more of what they earn, and getting good pay rises from growth too.

    He also caved in totally to the NIMBY tendency and stood in the way of allowing more development and people to have a home of their own.

    Sunak is just interested in ever more bloating the welfare state for the expanding non-working pensioner client class, protecting the property value of those with property portfolios while jacking up taxes on work and having no objections to young people facing a future of being heavily taxed rent payers.

    He believes in nothing other than managed decline and protecting the interests of those who are already well off, rather than those who are aspirational which is when the Tories are at their best.
    Been a while since they were at their best then. Major, I guess, at a pinch?
    Coalition early years too. Carried on austerity too long but otherwise sensible govt.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,634
    The tweeter of that thread is originally a disaffected Labour voter, not a Tory.

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1518584216186990593

    I voted most of my life for Labour and the Lib Dems - couple of times the Greens - then I voted the Brexit Party - at the last general election I voted for Conservative - at the last local elections I voted Lib Dem, Independent and Conservative - so not very through and through
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    Labour 295-345 seats is my guess.

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
  • kle4 said:

    Labour gain Swindon.

    Labour gained eight seats on Swindon council. Looking at it, by convincing leads too.

    Can Labour now take both Westminster seats? The maths looks challenging looking at the majorities.
    The Tory vote did not collapse in all the seats, so holding one seems viable.

    But in fact it will be three by the next election and one will have rural hinterland.
    Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
    Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    ping said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If we paid MPs more we'd get better MPs precisely the same bunch just on more money.

    Like local councillors. Even with big increases in allowances since 2000, most of them are still animals or vegetables.
    What does your average councillor actually get in terms of money in the bank account, each month - and in terms of expenses?

    I genuinely have no idea.
    Varies hugely by council and role
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    kle4 said:

    Labour gain Swindon.

    Labour gained eight seats on Swindon council. Looking at it, by convincing leads too.

    Can Labour now take both Westminster seats? The maths looks challenging looking at the majorities.
    The Tory vote did not collapse in all the seats, so holding one seems viable.

    But in fact it will be three by the next election and one will have rural hinterland.
    Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
    Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
    Ok fair enough yes LAB would have a chance there on that basis 👍
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    I see Thresher says Labour Minority

    Curtice due soon
  • Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    I believe the current incarnation has very little in common with the 1983 party. Indeed, they are very Eurosceptic and have some kind of pact with RefUK... poor old Woy would have choked on his claret to hear such a thing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,095
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    ping said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If we paid MPs more we'd get better MPs precisely the same bunch just on more money.

    Like local councillors. Even with big increases in allowances since 2000, most of them are still animals or vegetables.
    What does your average councillor actually get in terms of money in the bank account, each month - and in terms of expenses?

    I genuinely have no idea.
    It varies massively (Wales I think is sensible and has a single rate). Some get 6-7k allowance per annum, others 14k+. Not including those with special responsibilities like leaders.
    Looking at my Dad's allowances it seems becoming a Lord Mayor pays nicely for that year !
    Fuck knows how you'd do it properly with a full time job though. Might be something I consider going for when I'm retired.
    Many of those with special responsibilities are essentially full time and even then some work. Regular councillors I think report 20 hours or so per week on council work. Not surprising older folk predominate, though I believe more younger ones are coming through.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    I believe the current incarnation has very little in common with the 1983 party. Indeed, they are very Eurosceptic and have some kind of pact with RefUK... poor old Woy would have choked on his claret to hear such a thing.
    Yes, so I understand. But still the very name! It’s yesterday once more.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    With 40% of councils declared the Tories have lost 300 seats. Maybe the remaining councils have more seats available than the ones so far.

    Outside chance of sub 1000 loses?
    Unless there are a higher percentage of losses in the remaining seats, and there is a higher percentage of Tory councillors at the moment, we seem to be on track for something like 750. Which is a lot given their starting point but not the biblical wipeouts of times past.
    I think your maths is wrong - almost exactly 1,000 formerly Tory seats declared so far and net loss running at 324. So looking more like 1,000 losses based on defending 3.365 total.

    If you're confident in "something like 750" get onto Betfair exchange quick as over 750 is trading at 1.01 and under at 21, so potentially a great opportunity for you there.
    My maths is we are currently on 96/230 councils declared (roughly 40%). Losses are currently just over 300 x2.5 =750.

    But I agree there is more to lose in the remaining councils so the attrition rate may go up. It depends if those areas are as hostile as some of those which have already voted and that might depend on how the LDs do as much as Labour.
    Your main mistake there is a lot of councils that declare early elect in thirds (less to count, for a start) and the all-up ones tend to be later, so the number of declared Councils is a misleading measure as quite a few of the already declared councils only had a dozen or so seats up.
    According to the Institute for Government a total of 8,058 council seats are being contested (excluding any by-elections held on the same day).

    2735 (33.9%) have been decided so far and the Tories have lost 334.

    If that rate continues they'll lose a total of 984.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
    Politicians want votes of racists, they count like anyone else. The good ones hope they receive the votes incidentally and not because they are acting racist themselves.
    Yes by 'don't want' I meant before the fact, so 'seek to repel' or at least 'do not seek to attract'. But after the fact, come the count, you don't know who, only how many, and at this point it's a case of the more the better.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    I don't think this piece on Keir Starmer is particularly insightful but the points about factionalism and 'continuity Blair' do alarm me.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/keir-starmer-doubts-loudest-labour-shadow-cabinet-2316816

    I am near 100% convinced that Starmer will be next PM, assuming Sunak makes it to the next election that is.

    But does this enthral me? Not really. Bear in mind that I never voted for Tony Blair though. I want to see these wretched tories booted out, and for a long time, but I'd hope for something more progressive and radical than continuity Blair. The LibDems would bring that to the Cabinet table.

    I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
    I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
    Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…

    Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
    Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now

    He has to do historically well just to get to a majority

    So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution

    And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t

    I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
    1979, 1997, 2010.
    If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while.
    History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
    No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
    I see no evidence to support that. Those Tories who think get rid of Sunak and my faction will prevail are deluded. Lose in 2024, as they will, and their days of power and corruption are over. Pointless opposition awaits. The talented, such as they are, will find other things to do.
    I do suspect that the Tories are sufficiently toxified to leave them out of power for at least two parliaments, even if Labour don’t do brilliantly in their first term (there’ll probably be enough goodwill to carry them through, at least to largest party again).

    Of course that doesn’t preclude a situation where things are so appalling that the Tories get another go, but it will take a very good Tory leader and very poor anti-Labour mood music to get them back so quickly IMHO.
    If the Tories lose power a lot will depend on who they choose to replace Sunak. I can see plenty of candidates from the culture war right of the party standing, but who is there in the pragmatic centre? I cannot think of anyone.

    Penny can probably make a decent fist of getting them back to being more centrist. But I don’t think she’ll get it.

    It’ll be Badenoch vs Braverman IMHO. The latter spells disaster. The former likely has some upsides - Kemi is an impressive performer - but I suspect not enough to drag them back to electability in one term. But that’s just my two penneth.

    Her fake military pretensions etc did for her. Fake through and through.
    Are you muddling her up with Penny?
    Absolutely talking about Penny, I am a bit behind. But not impressed with any of them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kinabalu said:

    Labour 295-345 seats is my guess.

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
    Go on then......
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287

    Leon said:

    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you

    Leon said:

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    Erm
    *clutches head in despair*
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Dialup said:

    @TSE @MikeSmithson @PBModerator please can you act on one user attempting to doxx me (incorrectly I might add)

    Wah Wah Wah, how can they doxx you if it is incorrect.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I am re-elected. My jihad against decency rages on.

    Abolish the parish council, Dura! Saves money, and anything to be discussed would be by a collective of parishioners.
    Now that I have torpedoed the coronation bollocks I probably won't attend or respond to any correspondence for about a year.

    "We are revolutionaries and insurrectionists because we do not just want to improve existing institutions but to destroy them completely." ~Malatesta
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    LDs gain Stratford on Avon is another eye-catcher, is it not. Worrying times for Nadhim Zahawi.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
    He’s not “hardcore” at all.
    Immigration levels are higher than ever.
    Exactly hardcore at increasing it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    With 40% of councils declared the Tories have lost 300 seats. Maybe the remaining councils have more seats available than the ones so far.

    Outside chance of sub 1000 loses?
    Unless there are a higher percentage of losses in the remaining seats, and there is a higher percentage of Tory councillors at the moment, we seem to be on track for something like 750. Which is a lot given their starting point but not the biblical wipeouts of times past.
    I think your maths is wrong - almost exactly 1,000 formerly Tory seats declared so far and net loss running at 324. So looking more like 1,000 losses based on defending 3.365 total.

    If you're confident in "something like 750" get onto Betfair exchange quick as over 750 is trading at 1.01 and under at 21, so potentially a great opportunity for you there.
    My maths is we are currently on 96/230 councils declared (roughly 40%). Losses are currently just over 300 x2.5 =750.

    But I agree there is more to lose in the remaining councils so the attrition rate may go up. It depends if those areas are as hostile as some of those which have already voted and that might depend on how the LDs do as much as Labour.
    Your main mistake there is a lot of councils that declare early elect in thirds (less to count, for a start) and the all-up ones tend to be later, so the number of declared Councils is a misleading measure as quite a few of the already declared councils only had a dozen or so seats up.
    According to the Institute for Government a total of 8,058 council seats are being contested (excluding any by-elections held on the same day).

    2735 (33.9%) have been decided so far and the Tories have lost 334.

    If that rate continues they'll lose a total of 984.
    My guess is it will get worse, so maybe slightly over 1,000 losses.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Leon said:

    I think Badenoch is still green, but she is certainly smarter than Leadsom, sharper than Raab, and less loopy and self-regarding than Truss.

    Perhaps she is the William Hague de nos jours, who was denounced as a right-wing young fogey back in the late 1990s.

    Hague grew in stature after losing the populist leader slot.
    That was kind of my point.

    Hague was never an actual numpty. He just seemed numptyish because frankly he was green and inexperienced.

    He needed seasoning.

    Suspect the same is also true of Badenoch.
    Hague was a great missed opportunity. Would have been a fine prime minister in 2010. Much better than Cameron. Went off half cock too soon

    Tsk
    He was a full cock
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,634

    Dialup said:

    @TSE @MikeSmithson @PBModerator please can you act on one user attempting to doxx me (incorrectly I might add)

    You mean me.

    If it’s not you, then it’s not remotely close to doxing you is it, in which case why all the fuss? 🤷‍♀️

    I would also not be doxing you as who you REALLY ARE, merely suggesting you sound like someone who used to post. Is doxing really the right word for that?

    It would be something the ban hammer would fall frequently, as there is regular such discussions.
    It's more deadnaming than doxing.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    Ok I get it.

    But, Barty calls you a racist which I can understand you didn't like. So you call Barty homophobic.

    Does the fact that a few posters who generally disagree with Barty chipped in to say they hadn't read anything homophobic from Barty, BUT nobody so far has claimed that they haven't seen any evidence that you are racist, tell you anything?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    Dialup said:

    @TSE @MikeSmithson @PBModerator please can you act on one user attempting to doxx me (incorrectly I might add)

    You mean me.

    If it’s not you, then it’s not remotely close to doxing you is it, in which case why all the fuss? 🤷‍♀️

    I would also not be doxing you as who you REALLY ARE, merely suggesting you sound like someone who used to post. Is doxing really the right word for that?

    It would be something the ban hammer would fall frequently, as there is regular such discussions.
    Obviously an absolute idiot, even if it was I hardly think calling someone a horse could be construed as doxxing
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    edited May 2023

    kinabalu said:

    Labour 295-345 seats is my guess.

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
    Go on then......
    It's going to be 590 labour seats gained at the current rate (36% counted, 215 seats gained), just saying.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Leon said:

    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you

    Leon said:

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    Erm
    The self knowledge is not strong with @Leon
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    Are you drunk? You specifically have just cast aspersions on someone in particular and in particular someone who isn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Nigelb said:

    Is this too good to be true (about to be shafted by banking crisis, etc), or is Biden going to have rather a good story to put to the electorate next year ?

    Holy moly, we've got another one!

    Payrolls grew a huuuuuge +253k in April, well above market expectations. There's no hint of any sort of labor market slowdown in these numbers. Other indicators had been hinting at a slowdown, but these are more reliable.

    https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1654463816338472960

    Bad news for markets
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,095

    kle4 said:

    Labour gain Swindon.

    Labour gained eight seats on Swindon council. Looking at it, by convincing leads too.

    Can Labour now take both Westminster seats? The maths looks challenging looking at the majorities.
    The Tory vote did not collapse in all the seats, so holding one seems viable.

    But in fact it will be three by the next election and one will have rural hinterland.
    Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
    Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
    I cannot show from my phone but basically 3 wards of Swindon are being joined with a huge tranche of rural wiltshire down towards salisbury. They include a ward which went narrowly LD, one moderately Lab and one not voting which is Conservative. That parliament seat will be Con.

    Of the other two the South seat on today's result should be a comfy gain. Most went Labour fairly easily.

    The North seat had some closish results but purely on today also looks good for a Lab gain.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    Ok I get it.

    But, Barty calls you a racist which I can understand you didn't like. So you call Barty homophobic.

    Does the fact that a few posters who generally disagree with Barty chipped in to say they hadn't read anything homophobic from Barty, BUT nobody so far has claimed that they haven't seen any evidence that you are racist, tell you anything?
    Aaaand, that’s a No
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
    From the very first Tweet in the thread, the one you linked to: "you are flooding the country with legal migration" is pretty racist. And note, its legal migration he's objecting to.

    But you can't see it, because you are yourself a racist.
    Yes yes yes. Yawn

    500,000 net migrants is the highest ever recorded in UK history. Some predict 2023 could see 700,000-1m. See Robert Colville in the Times

    You’re just a weirdo provincial dweeb who hates trans people
    Eh? I never bring up the trans debate, you do. And that racist weirdo you quoted did in that Twitter thread.

    As far as I'm concerned let people be who they are and so long as it doesn't violate any safeguarding call them by what they want to be called.

    If you want to be called Leah or Leon, we should all call you whatever you choose to be known as.
    I find your endless barely-disguised homophobia and transphobia quite distasteful

    But it is not for me to prohibit you, nor would i want to. If the mods think it is acceptable, so be it
    I don't agree with much of what Barty says but I have never seen any homophobia or transphobia from him, barely-diguised or otherwise.

    There is a poster on here who is frequently exhibiting barely-disguised racism though, someone who ramps up xenophobic tweeters.
    Perhaps it’s the phenomenon of being racist and phobic by being non-racist and nonphobic that the US Fuckwit Right memes about?

    So Black Lives Matter is racist and the Proud Boys aren’t. Or something….
    Er...?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Why won't Sky News's YouTube live feed allow me to wind back a few minutes? I wanted to see what Prof Thrasher was saying.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    malcolmg said:

    Dialup said:

    @TSE @MikeSmithson @PBModerator please can you act on one user attempting to doxx me (incorrectly I might add)

    You mean me.

    If it’s not you, then it’s not remotely close to doxing you is it, in which case why all the fuss? 🤷‍♀️

    I would also not be doxing you as who you REALLY ARE, merely suggesting you sound like someone who used to post. Is doxing really the right word for that?

    It would be something the ban hammer would fall frequently, as there is regular such discussions.
    Obviously an absolute idiot, even if it was I hardly think calling someone a horse could be construed as doxxing
    They lost their rag with me, aggressive and swearing before I even said that. But I still rather it all never happened, and that I simply never replied back at all.

    Meanwhile. We know why Stratford on Avon flipped, it’s more comedy than tragedy, still dramatic to see it play out like that though.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    Are you drunk? You specifically have just cast aspersions on someone in particular and in particular someone who isn't.
    Gah, you should all stop feeding the troll.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 774
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
    I thought technically the old SDP party merged with the Liberals, for example Cowley Street the old SDP headquarters became the new headquarters of the Liberal Democrats, so that the "continuing" SDP (tick) was actually a new party. So not the same party legally.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    People need to Phobia off and get on with their miserable lives.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287

    Leon said:

    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you

    Leon said:

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    Erm
    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
    I thought technically the old SDP party merged with the Liberals, for example Cowley Street the old SDP headquarters became the new headquarters of the Liberal Democrats, so that the "continuing" SDP (tick) was actually a new party. So not the same party legally.
    A bit like Sinn Fein, then :lol:
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    And we all know it

    Ok I get it.

    But, Barty calls you a racist which I can understand you didn't like. So you call Barty homophobic.

    Does the fact that a few posters who generally disagree with Barty chipped in to say they hadn't read anything homophobic from Barty, BUT nobody so far has claimed that they haven't seen any evidence that you are racist, tell you anything?
    Aaaand, that’s a No
    Thought as much. It should tell you that even the posters who are sympathetic to you aren't willing to say that you aren't racist, because you tend to post some right bollocks sometimes. hth.


    Personally I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Certainly much less racist than that poster "eadric" who used to post on here
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you

    Leon said:

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    Erm
    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
    Answer: None of the above
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    I think Badenoch is still green, but she is certainly smarter than Leadsom, sharper than Raab, and less loopy and self-regarding than Truss.

    Perhaps she is the William Hague de nos jours, who was denounced as a right-wing young fogey back in the late 1990s.

    Hague grew in stature after losing the populist leader slot.
    That was kind of my point.

    Hague was never an actual numpty. He just seemed numptyish because frankly he was green and inexperienced.

    He needed seasoning.

    Suspect the same is also true of Badenoch.
    Hague was a great missed opportunity. Would have been a fine prime minister in 2010. Much better than Cameron. Went off half cock too soon

    Tsk
    He was a full cock
    He wasn't circumcised? How would you know a thing like that?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,355

    LDs gain Stratford on Avon is another eye-catcher, is it not. Worrying times for Nadhim Zahawi.

    Probably not. They've held Stratford in the past.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    malcolmg said:

    Dialup said:

    @TSE @MikeSmithson @PBModerator please can you act on one user attempting to doxx me (incorrectly I might add)

    You mean me.

    If it’s not you, then it’s not remotely close to doxing you is it, in which case why all the fuss? 🤷‍♀️

    I would also not be doxing you as who you REALLY ARE, merely suggesting you sound like someone who used to post. Is doxing really the right word for that?

    It would be something the ban hammer would fall frequently, as there is regular such discussions.
    Obviously an absolute idiot, even if it was I hardly think calling someone a horse could be construed as doxxing
    They lost their rag with me, aggressive and swearing before I even said that. But I still rather it all never happened, and that I simply never replied back at all.

    Meanwhile. We know why Stratford on Avon flipped, it’s more comedy than tragedy, still dramatic to see it play out like that though.
    Not bard that one!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Sean_F said:

    LDs gain Stratford on Avon is another eye-catcher, is it not. Worrying times for Nadhim Zahawi.

    Probably not. They've held Stratford in the past.
    I thought there aren't any elections in Newham this year :lol:
  • Looking at the Bracknell Forest Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/BracknellForest) there seems to be a big story emerging down there with Labour seemingly close to taking the council from the Tories when they only had two seats previously.
  • Lib Dems gain Dacorum (basically Hemel Hempstead plus Berkhamsted up to Tring).

  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    kle4 said:

    Labour gain Swindon.

    Labour gained eight seats on Swindon council. Looking at it, by convincing leads too.

    Can Labour now take both Westminster seats? The maths looks challenging looking at the majorities.
    The Tory vote did not collapse in all the seats, so holding one seems viable.

    But in fact it will be three by the next election and one will have rural hinterland.
    Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
    New Swindon South is more Labour friendly than old Swindon South. Part of Chiseldon and Lawn, Ridgeway, and Wroughton and Wichelstowe move to Wiltshire East. Swindon North will have some rural hinterland and Wiltshire East masses of it, only 10K of the that constituency electorate will be Swindon Borough.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Wolverhampton so far Lab 30 (+2), Con 9(-2), 21 still counting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    That just sounds like a racist to me. Decent politicians of any political party don't want that sort of vote.
    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you
    From the very first Tweet in the thread, the one you linked to: "you are flooding the country with legal migration" is pretty racist. And note, its legal migration he's objecting to.

    But you can't see it, because you are yourself a racist.
    Yes yes yes. Yawn

    500,000 net migrants is the highest ever recorded in UK history. Some predict 2023 could see 700,000-1m. See Robert Colville in the Times

    You’re just a weirdo provincial dweeb who hates trans people
    Eh? I never bring up the trans debate, you do. And that racist weirdo you quoted did in that Twitter thread.

    As far as I'm concerned let people be who they are and so long as it doesn't violate any safeguarding call them by what they want to be called.

    If you want to be called Leah or Leon, we should all call you whatever you choose to be known as.
    I find your endless barely-disguised homophobia and transphobia quite distasteful

    But it is not for me to prohibit you, nor would i want to. If the mods think it is acceptable, so be it
    I don't agree with much of what Barty says but I have never seen any homophobia or transphobia from him, barely-diguised or otherwise.

    There is a poster on here who is frequently exhibiting barely-disguised racism though, someone who ramps up xenophobic tweeters.
    Perhaps it’s the phenomenon of being racist and phobic by being non-racist and nonphobic that the US Fuckwit Right memes about?

    So Black Lives Matter is racist and the Proud Boys aren’t. Or something….
    Er...?
    It’s a wacky wacky world on the wacky Right.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
    “Hardcore”?

    You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration

    Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/


    Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
    Apparently wrong


    “the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”


    And there's the problem.

    People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.

    People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.

    So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
    It could try getting a grip on the future.

    If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
    AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.

    The biggest laugh for me is that most of the gullible hoards that voted for Brexit did it for nothing more than curbing immigration. It hasn't curbed it and it won't. Brexit becomes more pointless and dumb by the day
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,095
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you

    Leon said:

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    Erm
    This here was an IQ test failed by

    kle4
    Malmesbury
    Selebian
    noneoftheabove
    It was an honour just to take part.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Wolverhampton so far Lab 30 (+2), Con 9(-2), 21 still counting.

    I was "wondering" about that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    malcolmg said:

    Dialup said:

    @TSE @MikeSmithson @PBModerator please can you act on one user attempting to doxx me (incorrectly I might add)

    You mean me.

    If it’s not you, then it’s not remotely close to doxing you is it, in which case why all the fuss? 🤷‍♀️

    I would also not be doxing you as who you REALLY ARE, merely suggesting you sound like someone who used to post. Is doxing really the right word for that?

    It would be something the ban hammer would fall frequently, as there is regular such discussions.
    Obviously an absolute idiot, even if it was I hardly think calling someone a horse could be construed as doxxing
    They lost their rag with me, aggressive and swearing before I even said that. But I still rather it all never happened, and that I simply never replied back at all.

    Meanwhile. We know why Stratford on Avon flipped, it’s more comedy than tragedy, still dramatic to see it play out like that though.
    Certainly losing etgh rag and cursing and swearing is a big coincidence, at worst a doppleganger.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65499929

    "Covid global health emergency is over, WHO says"

    Hrm.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited May 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I am re-elected. My jihad against decency rages on.

    Abolish the parish council, Dura! Saves money, and anything to be discussed would be by a collective of parishioners.
    Now that I have torpedoed the coronation bollocks I probably won't attend or respond to any correspondence for about a year.

    "We are revolutionaries and insurrectionists because we do not just want to improve existing institutions but to destroy them completely." ~Malatesta
    So you're secretly a small government Tory ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    It seems in my local ward not only did I switch from Tory to Lib Dem but plenty of others did too, our incumbent Tory has been ousted and the Lib Dems have won a fairly comprehensive victory. :)

    I don't see any way back to sanity for the Tories under Sunak, and I can't see yet another leadership contest making things better either, so the only question it seems to me now is whether Starmer has a minority or majority government.

    Hopefully its a minority government with the Lib Dems as a moderating influence that can lead to a period of good governance as we had in 2010-2015.

    I'll probably regret asking this but what the hell let's live a little ... so what is that 'sanity' which Rishi Sunak is preventing the Tory Party rediscovering?
    A belief in aspiration, hard work and growing the economy. A belief in letting working people keep more of what they earn, and getting good pay rises from growth too.

    He also caved in totally to the NIMBY tendency and stood in the way of allowing more development and people to have a home of their own.

    Sunak is just interested in ever more bloating the welfare state for the expanding non-working pensioner client class, protecting the property value of those with property portfolios while jacking up taxes on work and having no objections to young people facing a future of being heavily taxed rent payers.

    He believes in nothing other than managed decline and protecting the interests of those who are already well off, rather than those who are aspirational which is when the Tories are at their best.
    Been a while since they were at their best then. Major, I guess, at a pinch?
    Coalition early years too. Carried on austerity too long but otherwise sensible govt.
    A Sven Goran Eriksson govt in many ways in that what followed makes their record look quite decent. On the whole I don't think the Coalition was that different to how Brown/Darling would have been. Maybe because of the LD influence.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    If you're accusing people of any kind of prejudice and you're unable to explain what on earth it is you're talking about, by all means please do give up.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    So Thrasher suggests on UNS we would have a hung parliament on these results (vote lead of circa 8-10%).

    Two factors - one possibly good for Lab, the other less so:

    1. There's a very high independent + Lib Dem vote (compared to polling positions). Some of that might go Labour's way in a GE. The other part might manifest itself in tactical voting against the Tories, helping maximise Tory losses and opposition gains.

    2. Local election results often overemphasise swings against the current government in times of unpopularity, meaning that in a GE the Tories - might - be able to pull closer.

    So despite the unquestionably bad results for the Tories today, it feels like the ball is now back in Starmer's court and how he prepares Labour for government in the next 12-18 months. Still a lot to play for, though I can't see any way the Tories salvage a government out of the next election.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Andy_JS said:

    Why won't Sky News's YouTube live feed allow me to wind back a few minutes? I wanted to see what Prof Thrasher was saying.

    Like we discussed with Curtis earlier, and like medical doctors are cautious about saying too much until they are sure about things, as their authority and reputation is built on not leaving hostages to fortune, but he said based on data currently in front of him, no majority for Labour.

    Though, when pressed on the changing situation in Scotland maybe helping Labour to a majority, he said something like yes it is a realistic assumption to put out there, but he doesn’t have recent Scotland data in order to say more on that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65499929

    "Covid global health emergency is over, WHO says"

    Hrm.

    Time to buy some masks?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you

    Leon said:

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    Erm
    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
    Hmm, it may be a weird intelligence test that only you understand, but IQ test it definitely isn't
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour gain Swindon.

    Labour gained eight seats on Swindon council. Looking at it, by convincing leads too.

    Can Labour now take both Westminster seats? The maths looks challenging looking at the majorities.
    The Tory vote did not collapse in all the seats, so holding one seems viable.

    But in fact it will be three by the next election and one will have rural hinterland.
    Not convinced LAB will have much joy in Swindon next time. Maybe if one of the new seats is focussed on the town centre? (I haven't seen the proposed new boundaries).
    Why? I don't know the new boundaries either, but the old South Swindon was only a 13% majority last time, so about a 6.5% swing, which isn't a shoo-in but wouldn't even be that close to Labour majority nationally territory. It's one of the seats they basically HAVE to win for anything but a fragile minority government.
    I cannot show from my phone but basically 3 wards of Swindon are being joined with a huge tranche of rural wiltshire down towards salisbury. They include a ward which went narrowly LD, one moderately Lab and one not voting which is Conservative. That parliament seat will be Con.

    Of the other two the South seat on today's result should be a comfy gain. Most went Labour fairly easily.

    The North seat had some closish results but purely on today also looks good for a Lab gain.
    It looks like the boundary changes make Swindon South a little more marginal so less than the 13% CON majority mentioned earlier.

    Also, I believe Heidi Alexander is standing for LAB. She has previously been an MP in London and is a good candidate. So maybe a LAB gain after all!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    edited May 2023

    There. There it is

    That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon


  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Lib Dems gain Dacorum (basically Hemel Hempstead plus Berkhamsted up to Tring).

    If the Lib Dems have gained Dacorum does that mean no more dodgy graphs or abusive leaflets?
    Don't be naive. Having taken it, they'll need to keep it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    So far, Greens have gained +81, LibDems only +91. It's gonna be close :)
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Southampton counting very slow. Only 7 wards declared so far:

    Labour 15 (+2)
    Conservative 3 (-4)
    Liberal Democrats 3 (+2)

    We had a tied vote in Harefield between the 2nd and 3rd placed Tory so they drew straws to see who would get the one year term and who would get the three year term.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
    I thought technically the old SDP party merged with the Liberals, for example Cowley Street the old SDP headquarters became the new headquarters of the Liberal Democrats, so that the "continuing" SDP (tick) was actually a new party. So not the same party legally.
    A bit like Sinn Fein, then :lol:
    No no no

    That’s Republican Sinn Fein

    Which is completely different to the republicans in Sinn Fein

    Who are completely different to the 32 County Sovereignty Movement

    Who are utterly nothing to do with Saoradh

    They are all splitters, of course.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
    “Hardcore”?

    You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration

    Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/


    Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
    Apparently wrong


    “the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”


    And there's the problem.

    People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.

    People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.

    So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
    It could try getting a grip on the future.

    If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
    AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
    Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    “Sounds like a racist” - tho there is not actually a single racist statement in his thread. He just “sounds racist” - to you

    Leon said:

    I’m naming no names, and casting no aspersions on anyone in particular, but if “it sounds like someone is homophobic”, then in my experience they generally ARE

    Erm
    This here was an IQ test failed by

    @kle4
    @Malmesbury
    @Selebian
    @noneoftheabove
    To repeat the advice upthread.
    Don't try to reason with Leon when he's in a mischievous mood.
    A polite FU suffices.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    Labour 295-345 seats is my guess.

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
    Go on then......
    Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Leon said:

    There. There it is

    That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think vaguely of an unseen horizon

    You should've been a writer pal.

    (You'd need to improve your material obvs. but there's a kernel there.)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    If you're accusing people of any kind of prejudice and you're unable to explain what on earth it is you're talking about, by all means please do give up.
    I think Leon was trying to suggest that the accusation from Barty that Leon is a racist is as without foundation as the accusation that Barty is homophobic.

    Backfired a bit.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Looking at the Bracknell Forest Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/BracknellForest) there seems to be a big story emerging down there with Labour seemingly close to taking the council from the Tories when they only had two seats previously.

    I was always surprised that Bracknell wasn't more Labour. When people got enough money they moved to Wokingham. Of course, with all the housebuilding round there there is now less than 400m separating the outskirts (one field and the A329M) so they are pretty much one!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265
    edited May 2023
    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
    “Hardcore”?

    You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration

    Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/


    Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
    Apparently wrong


    “the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”


    And there's the problem.

    People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.

    People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.

    So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
    It could try getting a grip on the future.

    If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
    AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
    Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
    “AI” as it currently constituted, is a productivity tool. It will allow a person to do the work of X people.

    All previous technological improvements in productivity have created more jobs than they have destroyed.

    This time *might* be different - but why?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    I think Badenoch is still green, but she is certainly smarter than Leadsom, sharper than Raab, and less loopy and self-regarding than Truss.

    Perhaps she is the William Hague de nos jours, who was denounced as a right-wing young fogey back in the late 1990s.

    Hague grew in stature after losing the populist leader slot.
    When people lose, they are simply seen as less of a threat, particularly if they lighten up a bit and it's fairly clear they aren't coming back. A lot of ex-leaders follow that pattern (Major, May, Bush etc). Not everyone does, but a lot do.

    I'd also quibble with "populist" as a description of Hague. He was really a pretty conventional Tory politician. He was never pretending to be the maverick outsider taking on the establishment - he was, and didn't really try that much to hide being, an Oxbridge career politician. Sure, he did a bit of the old grammar school boy, Yorkshire lad, 16 pints blarney, but every politician does that sort of thing to soften the edges.
    The baseball cap? The quaffing of pints on telly / tabloids? "Last chance to save the Pound"? His dabbling with law changes in the Tony Martin case? And, IIRC, he was an early adopter of the "migrants coming over here knicking all our jobs and houses" meme (although ably assisted by New Labour in that one)
    That's simply not what "populist" means, and there are very, very few politicians who don't try to be a bit relatable.

    A "populist" is someone who says you're being targeted by establishment elites (the swamp, the blob, call it what you will). It isn't simply someone who is fairly right wing and has a bit of a go (rather an unsuccessful one in Hague's case) at coming across vaguely like a normal person. Indeed, although sometimes they do, often populists DON'T try to come across as normal - they are setting themselves up as saviours.
    Words change meaning over time. Twenty years ago, "populist" meant trying to project an image of ordinariness, the bloke in the street rather than the modern version of demagogery.

    Google old news articles and you will have no trouble finding articles accusing Hague of being populist.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    So Thrasher suggests on UNS we would have a hung parliament on these results (vote lead of circa 8-10%).

    Two factors - one possibly good for Lab, the other less so:

    1. There's a very high independent + Lib Dem vote (compared to polling positions). Some of that might go Labour's way in a GE. The other part might manifest itself in tactical voting against the Tories, helping maximise Tory losses and opposition gains.

    2. Local election results often overemphasise swings against the current government in times of unpopularity, meaning that in a GE the Tories - might - be able to pull closer.

    So despite the unquestionably bad results for the Tories today, it feels like the ball is now back in Starmer's court and how he prepares Labour for government in the next 12-18 months. Still a lot to play for, though I can't see any way the Tories salvage a government out of the next election.

    If you are saying we expect swingback, but also expect tactical voting but hard to say what it does, does it cancel out and exceed swing-back, then I absolutely agree.

    You say the ball is in Labours court to sell and seal the deal, but it doesn’t leave Tories much leeway either. If Sunak’s financial services compensation scheme goes down like some of these banks are, taking Sunak and governments credibility with it, it hands a majority win to Labour.

    The pressure is on the Tories too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-65499929

    "Covid global health emergency is over, WHO says"

    Hrm.

    "WHO said that even though the emergency phase was over, the pandemic hasn't come to an end, noting recent spikes in cases in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

    "The UN health agency says that thousands of people are still dying from the virus every week."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,081

    IanB2 said:

    Sailed through the Channel Tunnel this morning. Who knew such was even possible?

    Well, Tom Cruise managed to get a helicopter through it in Mission Impossible 1, so it's obviously a multi-modal tunnel ...
    He wasn't piloting it, it was Jean Reno. Tom Cruise was on a TGV masquerading as a Eurostar train. Obviously. :)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    kamski said:

    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up

    If you're accusing people of any kind of prejudice and you're unable to explain what on earth it is you're talking about, by all means please do give up.
    I think Leon was trying to suggest that the accusation from Barty that Leon is a racist is as without foundation as the accusation that Barty is homophobic.

    Backfired a bit.
    There must have been some subtlety that escaped me in his saying "If people can’t see homophobia where it’s right there in front of them, then I give up", if he wasn't suggesting anyone had been homophobic. But I admit that with some people anything is possible.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    Leon said:


    There. There it is

    That feeling of the 2nd gin and tonic on a tropical night. The tingle of the ice and the lemon on the palate, the slippage of the mind into something easier, like diving from a sunburnt riverbank picnic into clean pure water; the loosening of a stubborn anchor, and then the sails ripple, a pennant flows, and eyes look up, and think, vaguely, of an as-yet unseen horizon


    You won’t find clean, pure water in the river which flows through Bangkok!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
    “Hardcore”?

    You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration

    Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/


    Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
    Apparently wrong


    “the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”


    And there's the problem.

    People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.

    People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.

    So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
    It could try getting a grip on the future.

    If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
    AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
    Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
    Jobs for the robots you siliconphobe you ;)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    .Tory hold in my ward. Not really surprising, one of the safer ones in the area. We got one Tory leaflet, none from any of the other candidates.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    For some reason the Tories made gains in the tower blocks area of Chelmsley Wood in north Solihull.

    https://www.solihull.gov.uk/councillors-and-democracy/election-results-2023
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Labour 295-345 seats is my guess.

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
    Go on then......
    Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
    I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.

    I can’t see that happening.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The one ward in the country that votes for the SDP continues to do so.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Middleton Park (Leeds) council election result:

    SDP: 46.0% (+22.2)
    LAB: 36.8% (-6.0)
    CON: 8.7% (+2.7)
    GRN: 4.3% (-0.6)
    LDEM: 2.0% (-1.2)

    SDP GAIN from Labour."

    Breaking the mould 40 years on!
    In practice they're slightly different to the old pro-EU SDP, because they've done a deal with Reform UK for the next general election. But it is technically the same party as the one Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins were members of.
    I thought technically the old SDP party merged with the Liberals, for example Cowley Street the old SDP headquarters became the new headquarters of the Liberal Democrats, so that the "continuing" SDP (tick) was actually a new party. So not the same party legally.
    A bit like Sinn Fein, then :lol:
    No no no

    That’s Republican Sinn Fein

    Which is completely different to the republicans in Sinn Fein

    Who are completely different to the 32 County Sovereignty Movement

    Who are utterly nothing to do with Saoradh

    They are all splitters, of course.
    Official SF are now the Workers' Party, the Provos are the *real* splitters, after the Ard Fheis in 1970!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Labour 295-345 seats is my guess.

    C'mon you can't have a 50 spread. +/- 10 is how we roll.
    Go on then......
    Right! As we speak, Lab seats, 340/350.
    I would add, somewhere around 346 or 347 means Labour actually winning more seats than Blair won in 97.

    I can’t see that happening.
    'Gaining' more seats, you mean.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    So far, Greens have gained +81, LibDems only +91. It's gonna be close :)

    Is that net? Do you have a link to that?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sailed through the Channel Tunnel this morning. Who knew such was even possible?

    Well, Tom Cruise managed to get a helicopter through it in Mission Impossible 1, so it's obviously a multi-modal tunnel ...
    He wasn't piloting it, it was Jean Reno. Tom Cruise was on a TGV masquerading as a Eurostar train. Obviously. :)
    TBF I was so incensed at the inaccuracy that I've obviously blotted out the details. ;)

    (I think it was also the MI film that showed various scenes from London, such as Big Ben, then added the caption 'London')
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Rishi is hardcore on immigration, so that looks like an excuse - even if they've failed Labour won't be tougher.
    “Hardcore”?

    You what?? Net migration last year was 500,000 - an all time record - and is now heading for 700,000. The new Sunak Tories have abandoned any attempt to limit legal immigration and seem incapable of dealing will illegal immigration

    Many think that’s fine. Fair enough. But I predict that if these figures are sustained migration - once again - will become an enormous issue in the public mind
    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/


    Net migration was unusually high in 2022, as several factors came together at once, including the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian route for Hong Kong British National Overseas (BNO) status holders. Increased net migration in this period was not primarily the result of the post-Brexit immigration system that replaced free movement.
    Apparently wrong


    “the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.”


    And there's the problem.

    People coming to UK universities to study is a decent money spinner for the country- quite a few unis would collapse without huge international fee income.

    People coming to the UK to work props up the economy. Maybe it shouldn't be necessary to import people to keep the plates spinning, but it's where the UK is right now.

    So, if the realistic choice is accept hefty migration or be poorer, what's a nation to do?
    It could try getting a grip on the future.

    If AI is on track to destroy millions of jobs in the next few years why do we need migration ?
    AI is likely to create more jobs than it destroys.
    Probably the stupidest comment I've seen anywhere at any time. Congratulations.
    Jobs for the robots you siliconphobe you ;)
    I don't even understand what you're getting at. If you can't express yourself more clearer, you may fail a Turing test. (Not that I'm implying that I would be prejudiced against you whatsoever if you were a differently biologicised intelligence.)
This discussion has been closed.