The support of Tory MPs – Truss’s biggest challenge – politicalbetting.com
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I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens0 -
Is there a point when our credit rating becomes so compromised because we have maxed out our borrowing capacity that we can only borrow on loan shark rates.Stocky said:
They'll borrow it. The public's thirst for ever increasing spending on condition that it is borrowed isn't close to being quenched.darkage said:The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
About £550 per head?0 -
One of the Truss spinners will admonish you any moment saying she only started the job today, we shouldn’t expect a detailed plan already.SouthamObserver said:The detail of the energy price cap seems to be all over the place. That suggests that Team Truss knows what it wants to do but has not yet worked out how to do it.
And then accuse you of politics of envy 😆1 -
The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.
Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.
Nationalise them.4 -
She has been foreign Secretary for 12 months and was a trade Secretary before that. She will be more well known in international circles than most of the other cabinet ministers.eristdoof said:
You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.MoonRabbit said:
Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.HYUFD said:
Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would BadenochMoonRabbit said:
“ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”HYUFD said:On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.
Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.
It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016
PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂
You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.
And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.
One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.0 -
Is it wrong that in my imagination, HM then chases the PM out of the room waving her stick?0
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How is it all going so far then...
IDS confirms he was offered and turned down a job in the Truss government #Wato
https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/15671248072961146880 -
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.2 -
I'm sure that upper-class status should increase that probability, as should access to the best medical treatment possible.IshmaelZ said:
All 96 year olds are elderly and in poor health. The bereavement effect lasts a year max and she is well past that. Crucially she has something to live for which is keeping the reign of awful Chaz n Camz as brief as possible before Baldy ascends in glory to the throne. She is a 4/1 shot to make 100 based only on age and sex, and I'd have a bit of that if there were a market.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day0 -
Now that there’s a peculiar remark!Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity….3 -
She could send herself a text using One2One.Eabhal said:
On average, a 96 year old should make it to 99. I think with her healthcare she's likely to send herself a telegram.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
(Yes I know they don't exist anymore).0 -
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth0 -
Alternate view is the Tories really have governed badly recently, with that on one side of the seesaw pulling it down, the other side of the seesaw goes up without doing much.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Labour has literally doubled its support. Starmer is a good leader.Pro_Rata said:
Johnson pre-appointment to post-appointment, was 6% better off (3% swing) in the 6 polls of each major pollster.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Compared to Johnson it is a disaster, he'd already had a bounce by nowSandpit said:
She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!CorrectHorseBattery3 said:That is a disastrous poll for Truss!
Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
YG: 25/21 to 31/21 (Con position +6)
ComRes: 25/28 to 28/27 (+4)
Surv: 23/29 to 28/24 (+10)
Opinium: 23/25 to 30/28 (+4)
BMG: 28/27 to 31/25 (+5)
Ipsos: 26/24 to 34/24 (+8)0 -
Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!CarlottaVance said:First names of the last four finance ministers—
France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/15668207079123681284 -
He's been undressed by kings and he's seen some things that a far right culture warrior aint supposed to see ...Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens1 -
Ah well everyone, remember we’ve got Fizzy Lizzy’s speech to the nation to look forward to later. Set your watches.
Can’t wait for the bit where she tells us she’ll deliver us from bad delivery of delivered policies and will deliver more delivery than anyone has ever delivered before.0 -
But she certainly doesn't carry the baggage that Johnson did.numbertwelve said:
She has been foreign Secretary for 12 months and was a trade Secretary before that. She will be more well known in international circles than most of the other cabinet ministers.eristdoof said:
You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.MoonRabbit said:
Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.HYUFD said:
Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would BadenochMoonRabbit said:
“ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”HYUFD said:On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.
Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.
It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016
PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂
You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.
And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.
One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.0 -
I doubt Truss will have any better relations with Macron and Biden and Scholz etc than Boris did, given her position on Brexit and the NI Protocol is just as hardline as Boris' if not more so. She will also not have got the bounce Sunak would with Modi and India as the first UK PM of Indian origin. Putin and Xi will of course still hate her. Trudeau and Albanese and Ardern will welcome her as the UK PM, a key ally for them but she is still a conservative and they are left liberals.eristdoof said:
You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.MoonRabbit said:
Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.HYUFD said:
Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would BadenochMoonRabbit said:
“ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”HYUFD said:On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.
Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.
It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016
PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂
You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.
And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.
One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
Whatever else you think of Boris he also had global recognition despite the clown act, something only 3 UK PMs in my lifetime have had, Thatcher, Blair and Boris. Truss is unlikely to be able to project herself globally in the same way.
She has been welcomed in Ukraine and should get on well with Zelensky and maybe the Japanese and Israeli PMs but beyond them will likely have few close allies internationally. She will have to hope Meloni's rightwing alliance wins the Italian election later this month to give her at least one firm ally at G7 summits
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True fact. Leon was once a third Krankie. They tried him out in the Cromer summer season in 1978. It didn't work out. Felt weird and creepy apparently, but he's had his finger on the pulse of the UK establishment ever since.2
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As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.0 -
*Very* good point. She is not for instance going to need amputations because the bedsores get into her bones.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
0 -
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.1 -
It's all muscle.eristdoof said:
But she certainly doesn't carry the baggage that Johnson did.numbertwelve said:
She has been foreign Secretary for 12 months and was a trade Secretary before that. She will be more well known in international circles than most of the other cabinet ministers.eristdoof said:
You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.MoonRabbit said:
Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.HYUFD said:
Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would BadenochMoonRabbit said:
“ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”HYUFD said:On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.
Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.
It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016
PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂
You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.
And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.
One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.4 -
Was he trying on that new Arai you bought him in advance of your first two up ride on the Gixxer?Dura_Ace said:
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.0 -
Reminder to scribblers of all kinds:
Truss's ✔️
Truss' ❌8 -
Oh the Empire is finished. https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1566895980989091847/video/11
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A PB anecdote for the ages.Dura_Ace said:
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.1 -
I see myself as rather centrist to be honest. I have done some charity work this summer, and seeing the costs of crap lisseez faire government at first hand has made me a more belligerent and better poster on PB maybe.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Moon you're a Tory roflMoonRabbit said:
I’m the one calling it straight today. Your the noted spinner on here in everything you post.Driver said:
Do you care about the effect on the public, or do you care about spouting divisive nonsense, trying to play the politics of envy?MoonRabbit said:
Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits. The Libdem and Labour proposal and the Tory policy are chalk and cheese under the bonnet.RobD said:
What? They are basically the same.MoonRabbit said:
No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.RobD said:
Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?MoonRabbit said:
Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.CarlottaVance said:Exclusive:
Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500
It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top
Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376
If I am upsetting both you and Driver in equal propositions, I must be doing a good balanced job in my honest postings, scything down everybody else’s spin 😇1 -
Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.
If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.1 -
The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.TOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.2 -
Why does "Irish Unity" have a Palestinian flag?Scott_xP said:Oh the Empire is finished. https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1566895980989091847/video/1
5 -
Weirder and creepier than the Krankies are already? Seems unlikely.Jonathan said:True fact. Leon was once a third Krankie. They tried him out in the Cromer summer season in 1978. It didn't work out. Felt weird and creepy apparently, but he's had his finger on the pulse of the UK establishment ever since.
0 -
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.0 -
Oh he's fine, but like many on PB and for no good reason whatsoever, he is quite insecure and competitive; a challenging mix.IanB2 said:
The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.TOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.0 -
If ever there was a proof needed that travel doesn't broaden the mind we need look no further.IanB2 said:
The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.TOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.1 -
Out of interest, how's your business venture selling replacement "S" keys for computer keyboards going?Dynamo said:Reminder to scribblers of all kinds:
Truss's ✔️
Truss' ❌6 -
That is proper old aristocracy insanity, and fortifies my impression that you are proper, castles and earldoms, posh, and that your lifestyle and politics are an enraged rebellion against inheriting Gormenghast.Dura_Ace said:
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.1 -
NEW NEWS: The Masked Singer is back on.
Rejoice!1 -
I thought so too, she is looking quite bright in these pictures.Stocky said:
I can see myself properly loafing on that gorgeous sofa on the right. Love those sturdy round arms 😍0 -
Did you make sure to wear high collars around her?Dura_Ace said:
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
1 -
Your answer to everything: nationalise!Anabobazina said:The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.
Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.
Nationalise them.
And as has been seen in the past, blanket nationalisation is just as bad (perhaps even worse) than blanket privatisation.
So a question: when you call for 'energy' to be nationalised, what exactly are you saying? What's the program? What constitutes 'energy' ?1 -
There are reports that Ukraine has launched another counterattack around Kharkiv.0
-
"while they were watching pointless" ...OnlyLivingBoy said:
A PB anecdote for the ages.Dura_Ace said:
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.1 -
Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.Scott_xP said:Oh the Empire is finished. https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1566895980989091847/video/1
1 -
I agree. I suspect she’ll get it, but it will take a short while to sink in.SouthamObserver said:Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.
If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.
My prediction - by October/November the narrative will be “oh didn’t we underestimate Liz, she’s doing a really good job in challenging circumstances” before it all implodes next year.
2 -
First we nationalise everything. Including all the Furrin countries with natural gas that are selling it to us.JosiasJessop said:
Your answer to everything: nationalise!Anabobazina said:The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.
Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.
Nationalise them.
And as has been seen in the past, blanket nationalisation is just as bad (perhaps even worse) than blanket privatisation.
So a question: when you call for 'energy' to be nationalised, what exactly are you saying? What's the program? What constitutes 'energy' ?
There’s a word for that in the dictionary, so they say.2 -
Perhaps because Irish Nationalists who hate the UK also hate Israel too?williamglenn said:
Why does "Irish Unity" have a Palestinian flag?Scott_xP said:Oh the Empire is finished. https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1566895980989091847/video/1
0 -
And nor was Cameron, who wasn't "brought down" at all...Slackbladder said:
Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.Scott_xP said:Oh the Empire is finished. https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1566895980989091847/video/1
0 -
I'm not sure the public have yet grasped that this package will simple retain the current level of unaffordability rather than actually reduce their billsSouthamObserver said:Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.
If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.0 -
HMQ: "Do you know Leon?"turbotubbs said:0 -
I think she could pull it off. If the package is genuinely effective, like furlough, then it could be a game changer. Most people are worried about what the energy crisis will do to themselves, business, the economy, friends and family. It is really BIG. If Lightweight Liz turns out to be Energised Elizabeth then we might all get a pleasant surprise. If added to this she doesn't stuff her cabinet with sycophants like Bozo did, I might even consider returning to the fold. Let's face it, she wasn't dumb enough to vote Leave was she?Beibheirli_C said:
Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.SouthamObserver said:That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.
1 -
Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?TOPPING said:
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.
The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.0 -
Debt as % GDP:Foxy said:
Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!CarlottaVance said:First names of the last four finance ministers—
France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128
Italy: 151
France: 113
UK: 96
Germany: 69
1 -
Yes, a wide angle lens will do that.CarlottaVance said:
She looks OK for 96 to me.
Mind you, my father in law is 92 and still climbs ladders to sort out the guttering (despite 'advice')0 -
Isn't the problem the long-term geo-political strategy with energy security which is not set by the private sector but rather has been set by the.. government?Anabobazina said:The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.
Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.
Nationalise them.
In this case, it's probably been quite useful to get some policy brainstorming done by some of the private power companies who have, going beyond their remit, tried to analyse the problem as a whole and suggest policy solutions on tax and spend.
As it happens, it sounds like their policy solution is going to be much closer to the mark than the one Trust advocated for weeks on end which was a laughable change in National Insurance. What a farce.
0 -
...
For sure, the Prayer of St Francis of Assisi incoming shortly.numbertwelve said:Ah well everyone, remember we’ve got Fizzy Lizzy’s speech to the nation to look forward to later. Set your watches.
Can’t wait for the bit where she tells us she’ll deliver us from bad delivery of delivered policies and will deliver more delivery than anyone has ever delivered before.0 -
Did she not teach you the signs to watch for ?Dura_Ace said:
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
(Have been desperately manoeuvring hand mirrors for the last couple of minutes...)0 -
Yes, you can see the effect of perspective by comparing the apparent height of each end of the sofas.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Is that actually true? Strange to me, as he was front and centre of Team Truss this summer. 🤔Scott_xP said:How is it all going so far then...
IDS confirms he was offered and turned down a job in the Truss government #Wato
https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1567124807296114688
There’s lots of left/right, Rishi and the assassins/Truss and the loyalists ways commentators will weigh and measure this cabinet, but too green/balanced with experience is one of the main ways it can be found wanting.0 -
I have no idea about other healthcare systems around the world, save for the fact that, as @Richard_Tyndall often and acutely points out, ours is best in many areas apart from the health outcomes and saving lives categories.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?TOPPING said:
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.
The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. Carers can shave a bit off your risk, but the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
I haven't looked at the age-adjusted stats. Perhaps one for our PB colleagues.0 -
Perhaps Liz is a lucky general and the Russian army will collapse before Xmaswilliamglenn said:There are reports that Ukraine has launched another counterattack around Kharkiv.
1 -
I think it’s a three year old video from before Boris orchestrated the election.Slackbladder said:
Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.Scott_xP said:Oh the Empire is finished. https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1566895980989091847/video/1
0 -
Hallelujah the Blue Wall is saved!Nigel_Foremain said:
I think she could pull it off. If the package is genuinely effective, like furlough, then it could be a game changer. Most people are worried about what the energy crisis will do to themselves, business, the economy, friends and family. It is really BIG. If Lightweight Liz turns out to be Energised Elizabeth then we might all get a pleasant surprise. If added to this she doesn't stuff her cabinet with sycophants like Bozo did, I might even consider returning to the fold. Let's face it, she wasn't dumb enough to vote Leave was she?Beibheirli_C said:
Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.SouthamObserver said:That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.
1 -
Perhaps it is a bell curve. There comes a point where you have so much travel that you start to be no longer enlightened by it. A kind of diminishing return of cultural over-consumption.Foxy said:
If ever there was a proof needed that travel doesn't broaden the mind we need look no further.IanB2 said:
The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.TOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.0 -
I think LT's feet have been cut off in that amateur fashion because she would look full on Brobdingnag if you left them inFlatlander said:
Yes, a wide angle lens will do that.CarlottaVance said:
She looks OK for 96 to me.
Mind you, my father in law is 92 and still climbs ladders to sort out the guttering (despite 'advice')
But that's another reason why the odds are in favour of HMQ. She does not do her own gutters, and falls and broken bones are a major reasonwhy oldies end up in hospital
1 -
The fact I have regularly DONE SMACK with the BLOKE WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S FUCKING BEDROOM is, I feel, sufficient evidence of my superior royal connections and any further demurral from you can be ascribed to social envyTOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.0 -
We will know soon enough...Nigel_Foremain said:
I think she could pull it off. If the package is genuinely effective, like furlough, then it could be a game changer. Most people are worried about what the energy crisis will do to themselves, business, the economy, friends and family. It is really BIG. If Lightweight Liz turns out to be Energised Elizabeth then we might all get a pleasant surprise. If added to this she doesn't stuff her cabinet with sycophants like Bozo did, I might even consider returning to the fold. Let's face it, she wasn't dumb enough to vote Leave was she?Beibheirli_C said:
Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.SouthamObserver said:That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.
0 -
That's my point, really. It's going to be really popular - and then largely forgotten. By contrast, the furlough was something a lot of people experienced over a long period of time.Anabobazina said:
I'm not sure the public have yet grasped that this package will simple retain the current level of unaffordability rather than actually reduce their billsSouthamObserver said:Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.
If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.
0 -
You are quite brilliant at unwitting self-appraisalTOPPING said:
Oh he's fine, but like many on PB and for no good reason whatsoever, he is quite insecure and competitive; a challenging mix.IanB2 said:
The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.TOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.0 -
Given the briefing so far, is it possible Truss does not announce the energy plan today?1
-
Is that the measure that was UK under 40% in 2007 - before years of Austerity (for some) to bring it down! 🫣CarlottaVance said:
Debt as % GDP:Foxy said:
Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!CarlottaVance said:First names of the last four finance ministers—
France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128
Italy: 151
France: 113
UK: 96
Germany: 69
Where would US be on that current list, if I have been paying attention, PBs St Bart the Pirate will comment here that 140% is actually no problem at all, only beyond that it goes squizzy.2 -
Social climbing isn't supposed to mean actual climbing, you know ?Leon said:
The fact I have regularly DONE SMACK with the BLOKE WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S FUCKING BEDROOM is, I feel, sufficient evidence of my superior royal connections and any further demurral from you can be ascribed to social envyTOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.1 -
oh …phew!Leon said:
It’s when you are older than the US President that you really need to worryeristdoof said:
This makes me realise that I have reached another one of those age realisations.CarlottaVance said:Today, for first time in history, we will have six former Prime Ministers still alive: John Major (79), Tony Blair (69), Gordon Brown (71), David Cameron (55), Theresa May (65) and Boris Johnson (58). What’s remarkable is how young these ex-PMs are - none is yet 80.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1567074637825150978
It started when an England football player was younger than me. The next landmark was when there was an England cricket player younger than me. Then the England football/cricket captain wer younger than me, then all the whole team was younger than me.
Gradually the politicians take over the role with MPs younger than me, then a LOTO younger than me (Milliband) but today for the first time there is a Prime Minister younger than me!
0 -
C'mon, Smarkets or Betfair - open a book on what words will or won't be included in Truss's speech outside No10 today. Or how many times she will say "deliver" or one of its cognates. I predict 6.0
-
Yes. Shapes of bell curves is unilluminating though when you are looking at individual cases. Absent a hotline to her personal physician, every factor you can think of is in her favour: safety from accidental falls, quality of life (surgeons often decline to operate on post 90s if they think they are having a shit time anyway), longevity of mum (dad irrelevant as tobacco involved), motivation to live, mental acuity, quality of care to be expected if needed. All going her way.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?TOPPING said:
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.
The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
Medical friends of mine said in 2011 that the NHS would have let Prince Philip croak if he had been anyone else. So there's an extra 9 years royalness gets you.
0 -
Thatcher and Blair only had global recognition after they became PM. Johnson had global recognition before he became PM, and it wasn't for his statesmanship!HYUFD said:
I doubt Truss will have any better relations with Macron and Biden and Scholz etc than Boris did, given her position on Brexit and the NI Protocol is just as hardline as Boris' if not more so. She will also not have got the bounce Sunak would with Modi and India as the first UK PM of Indian origin. Putin and Xi will of course still hate her. Trudeau and Albanese and Ardern will welcome her as the UK PM, a key ally for them but she is still a conservative and they are left liberals.eristdoof said:
You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.MoonRabbit said:
Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.HYUFD said:
Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would BadenochMoonRabbit said:
“ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”HYUFD said:On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.
Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.
It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016
PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂
You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.
And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.
One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
Whatever else you think of Boris he also had global recognition despite the clown act, something only 3 UK PMs in my lifetime have had, Thatcher, Blair and Boris. Truss is unlikely to be able to project herself globally in the same way.
She has been welcomed in Ukraine and should get on well with Zelensky and maybe the Japanese and Israeli PMs but beyond them will likely have few close allies internationally. She will have to hope Meloni's rightwing alliance wins the Italian election later this month to give her at least one firm ally at G7 summits
I don't expect Truss to be particularly good at international statesmanship, but she isn't starting off with heavy baggage from her past.0 -
Drones will play role in any Taiwan conflict: Turkey's Baykar
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Drones-will-play-role-in-any-Taiwan-conflict-Turkey-s-Baykar
They are forecasting revenues over $!bn in the next year...0 -
Obama was about 16 days younger than me....geoffw said:
oh …phew!Leon said:
It’s when you are older than the US President that you really need to worryeristdoof said:
This makes me realise that I have reached another one of those age realisations.CarlottaVance said:Today, for first time in history, we will have six former Prime Ministers still alive: John Major (79), Tony Blair (69), Gordon Brown (71), David Cameron (55), Theresa May (65) and Boris Johnson (58). What’s remarkable is how young these ex-PMs are - none is yet 80.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1567074637825150978
It started when an England football player was younger than me. The next landmark was when there was an England cricket player younger than me. Then the England football/cricket captain wer younger than me, then all the whole team was younger than me.
Gradually the politicians take over the role with MPs younger than me, then a LOTO younger than me (Milliband) but today for the first time there is a Prime Minister younger than me!
0 -
137%MoonRabbit said:
Is that the measure that was UK under 40% in 2007 - before years of Austerity (for some) to bring it down! 🫣CarlottaVance said:
Debt as % GDP:Foxy said:
Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!CarlottaVance said:First names of the last four finance ministers—
France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128
Italy: 151
France: 113
UK: 96
Germany: 69
Where would US be on that current list, if I have been paying attention, PBs St Bart the Pirate will comment here that 140% is actually no problem at all, only beyond that it goes squizzy.
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=america
1 -
Re the polling, its simply a question of whether Lizmatron and her first moves reenergise the Tories that have moved to not voting or dont know. If so we probably get back towards something like 37 37 with 40 34 or so either side as the outliers (although that GB news lot will probably have 60 18 or something). Basically 2019 with the direct switch added in.
However, i cant see her reenergising ALL those ex tories.
Hostage to fortune but i see no circumstances arising that lead her to voluntarily go early.0 -
It is a great story and I'm sure what you can remember of it was super interesting.Leon said:
The fact I have regularly DONE SMACK with the BLOKE WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S FUCKING BEDROOM is, I feel, sufficient evidence of my superior royal connections and any further demurral from you can be ascribed to social envyTOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
As for HMQ's health and even The Crown's creator we will have to put that into PB's common speculation bucket.0 -
I didn't go ALL CAPS though, did I, eh?Leon said:
You are quite brilliant at unwitting self-appraisalTOPPING said:
Oh he's fine, but like many on PB and for no good reason whatsoever, he is quite insecure and competitive; a challenging mix.IanB2 said:
The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.TOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.0 -
I'd absolutely agree complications and errors are not the same thing, and that the Queen is just as susceptible to complications as anyone else, but I go through my own and my wife's relatives, and that care fell short is a factor in more than one death. For my father, in-hospital delays to spinal surgery greatly worsened his prognosis and directly made him more susceptible to his eventual death, whilst a grandparent-in-law suffered a bed collapse in a power cut and was not checked quickly afterwards, resulting in an leg break that went bad. But also I have numerous relatives where I cannot point to any such thing.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
And it is one of these, across many people and the people very close to them, that sheer weight of anecdotage cannot be dismissed0 -
I still had my CBR1000RR SP then which was a monoposto.TOPPING said:
Was he trying on that new Arai you bought him in advance of your first two up ride on the Gixxer?Dura_Ace said:
My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.TOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."
It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.0 -
They certainly know how to push Russia’s buttons:
Estonia described the Baltic Sea as NATO's "inland sea" after Sweden and Finland's accession
Russia has reacted furiously and has emphasized its standing as a Baltic Sea state. More historical propaganda about the Great Northern War and triumph over Sweden will likely follow
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1567047513462431745
Who was it turned it into NATO’s lake?0 -
It eill be announced to parliament as a fiscal event, not in a press conference. The most we get today will be a guidelineScott_xP said:Given the briefing so far, is it possible Truss does not announce the energy plan today?
0 -
i.e. taxpayersBig_G_NorthWales said:
,Labour plan is for 6 months, this is 18 months and the cost will not be added to future energy bills but paid by the exchequerRobD said:
Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?MoonRabbit said:
Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.CarlottaVance said:Exclusive:
Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500
It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top
Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376
1 -
@Nigelb
“Social climbing isn't supposed to mean actual climbing, you know ?”
++++
Michael Fagan is actually a fascinating character. Properly funny and intelligent. Quite surprising
Irish Traveller background I think
Wiki says his dad was a “champion safe breaker” and that in 1997 fagan was done for “conspiring to supply heroin” and I for one am not particularly astonished by this allegation, to be honest
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Fagan_(intruder)
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It looks like the Betfair settler reads PB. Spend wisely. Only 110 days to Christmas.BartholomewRoberts said:Betfair seem to be quite tardy on paying out. Come on already.
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There's a case for public ownership where a good is truly essential and is standard - ie the same regardless of supplier - and therefore affordable supply is far more important than choice.Malmesbury said:
First we nationalise everything. Including all the Furrin countries with natural gas that are selling it to us.JosiasJessop said:
Your answer to everything: nationalise!Anabobazina said:The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.
Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.
Nationalise them.
And as has been seen in the past, blanket nationalisation is just as bad (perhaps even worse) than blanket privatisation.
So a question: when you call for 'energy' to be nationalised, what exactly are you saying? What's the program? What constitutes 'energy' ?
There’s a word for that in the dictionary, so they say.
Energy fits the bill - but this doesn't mean nationalizing the whole chain. Eg instead of a plethora of "competing" outfits in the delivery space you could have a single public org. Simpler, more efficient, free of froth, profiteering and pointless complexity.
Worth looking at, imo, but as a longer term thing not as a fix for this crisis.1 -
It is extraordinary, when you start to ask around, how many people have similar stories.Pro_Rata said:
I'd absolutely agree complications and errors are not the same thing, and that the Queen is just as susceptible to complications as anyone else, but I go through my own and my wife's relatives, and that care fell short is a factor in more than one death. For my father, in-hospital delays to spinal surgery greatly worsened his prognosis and directly made him more susceptible to his eventual death, whilst a grandparent-in-law suffered a bed collapse in a power cut and was not checked quickly afterwards, resulting in an leg break that went bad. But also I have numerous relatives where I cannot point to any such thing.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.Pro_Rata said:
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
And it is one of these, across many people and the people very close to them, that sheer weight of anecdotage cannot be dismissed
Enough, as you say, to transcend simple anecdotage.0 -
The sofas/chairs are different, anyway, however.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Yes, you can see the effect of perspective by comparing the apparent height of each end of the sofas.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is blocking supply of 100 modern German Leopard 2A7 tanks to Ukraine, even though the manufacturing company is ready to produce them for Kyiv, writes Welt, citing sources in Ukrainian government circles. This issue was on PM Shmyhal recent visit's agenda.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/15671393030750576650 -
Belated FPT:
Not sure if it will "trash the PRS in Scotland"; it will certainly reduce it - that always happens with this type of populist measure. Remember that rental regulation is devolved. Perhaps it depends on how long the "freeze" is.darkage said:
These are very good insights just as true for England.Unpopular said:
I feel like this is going to trash the rental sector in Scotland. A lot of people, especially on the left, are very hostile to the whole sector but, speaking as someone who has rented extensively, I don't want it destroyed, I want it fit for purpose and abuses in the system stopped. I have no problem with the old woman who rented me a flat, at a decent price, which allowed me to have a place to live for years, however I was less impressed by the green-voting landlady who kicked me out to list the property on AirBnB...CarlottaVance said:
One parliamentary source said if the cost of a freeze was met by landlords the policy would cost the Government nothing.ohnotnow said:https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204
"Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"
That'll work well with increasing mortgage rates.....
Anything that will reduce rental stock, in areas where the availability of property might not be able to keep up demand, is likely to increase scarcity and competition. This will increase prices, either legally or illegally, and we will see more 'bidding over the asking price' for rental properties. Those that don't just get sold, that is.
I know BTLs sit at the right hand of Hitler/the Devil for some, but not everyone is in a position to buy nor wants to be tied down by property. While it doesn't make long-term financial sense to hand over your cash to pay someone else's mortgage, landlords provide a service in exchange for money, a pretty vital one imo. Squeezing the sector until the pips squeak is not likely to benefit tenants.
There is something similar going on in Ireland.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/report-claims-rent-controls-have-backfired-and-worsened-crisis-1.4881856
Buy to let and landlords have been absolutely trashed through tax and regulation, so the effect is that the flat I rented out 5 years ago for £600 per month is now being let out at £1200 and the town has a massive homelessness problem. Even at £1200 per month I doubt the landlord is making any kind of meaningful return that justifies the risks.
All this was obvious to me as far back as 2016, I worked for a council who were reliant on private sector landlords to deal with the statutory responsibilities it had to find housing for vulnerable people, and the landlords were just selling up en masse and quitting thus creating perpetual crisis and massively escalating costs.
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It is just a disaster which the tories are asleep over, real policy making and stakeholder engagement has been replaced with lazy 'f**k business' slurs, combined with simple anti landlord leftism; and of course the universal desire to get credit for new progressive regulation, like building safety laws, etc, no matter what the cost. Reminds me a bit of Arthur Scargill going on about the coal board, 'the loss is without limit', etc.
The PRS in Scotland has been shrunk from 370k dwellings in 2016 by just under 15% to 325k (latest figure I can find).
And "landlord wishes to sell property" is a recognised Ground for Eviction" in Scotland. Albeit discretionary for the Tribunal, whatever that means.
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I think travel broadens the kind in proportion to the flexibility of the mind.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps it is a bell curve. There comes a point where you have so much travel that you start to be no longer enlightened by it. A kind of diminishing return of cultural over-consumption.Foxy said:
If ever there was a proof needed that travel doesn't broaden the mind we need look no further.IanB2 said:
The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.TOPPING said:
As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.Leon said:
You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWNTOPPING said:
I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.Leon said:
What a peculiar remarkTOPPING said:
Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.turbotubbs said:
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.Leon said:
Oh god. The dear old queen looks terribleScott_xP said:
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
In a walking trip across Nepal, I found it interesting to see the effect of meeting the locals on others in the group - and compare it to my own. The ability to see absolutely nothing, in other than the most superficial sense, is not a rare skill.1 -
Compare the near end with the far end of the *same* sofa.Carnyx said:
The sofas/chairs are different, anyway, however.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Yes, you can see the effect of perspective by comparing the apparent height of each end of the sofas.CarlottaVance said:0
This discussion has been closed.