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The support of Tory MPs – Truss’s biggest challenge – politicalbetting.com

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,739
    Andy_JS said:

    Therese Coffey to be deputy PM.

    Anyone think it will be even remotely possible for the LP to not have a woman leader next?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited September 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So the Queen has now done her job and replaced Boris as PM with Truss.

    Now for Truss to do her job, go back to London, make an inspiring speech outside No 10, appoint an effective Cabinet and get on with tackling issues like cost of living
    Time to get on board and give her your full support
    I will give her my support as I have given every new Tory leader my support since I joined the party under William Hague, even when you were voting for Blair and New Labour
    "MY PARTY RIGHT OR WRONG!"
    Many, many people are like this, on all sides. How many are "Always Labour round here" types? Or southern rural Tory voters? I'd argue that floating voters are in the minority.
    Oh well, I voted Labour in 1997 and 2015, LibDem in 2001 and 2005, and Tory in 2010, 2017 and 2019.
    If you were a sheep, we’d hang a bell round your neck 😁
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Did your well placed friend have any insight on whether the sun might come up tomorrow?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    Andy_JS said:

    Therese Coffey to be deputy PM.

    Therese gets a non-job?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    Does it have to be paid off in a single year?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    ,Labour plan is for 6 months, this is 18 months and the cost will not be added to future energy bills but paid by the exchequer
    So it's free to us oldsters. Hand me my voting slip.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited September 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Therese Coffey to be deputy PM.

    Therese gets a non-job?
    She's also expected to be Health Secretary.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,739
    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    They'll borrow it. The public's thirst for ever increasing spending on condition that it is borrowed isn't close to being quenched.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,478
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.
    What? They are basically the same.
    Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits.
    I think you are just being silly at this point. The proposals are the same in how they are implemented, just Truss' is over a longer period, and comes with an extra £400.
    The difference is where "the bill" ends up, right? Labour are proposing a windfall tax on profits, which would pay some of the way, and Truss' plan seems to either be general taxes (so either increased taxes, more debt, or cuts somewhere) OR treating it like a loan? Labour's proposal would hit households and small businesses less, Truss' plan just spreads the pain out over a longer period of time, which may help prevent a meltdown right now, but wouldn't really solve the issue (neither does a windfall tax, really).

    The big issue is that this is just a market failure - huge profiteering is happening and people cannot choose to just not use gas or electricity because that would mean no fridge, no cooker, no heating etc. all things we have designed the world to just need to survive now. So we could go Brown's way - make any companies taking money give the government shares in the company (which the gov would just sell off at less than market value later down the road anyway, but would arguably give a short term ability for the government to try and reduce profiteering) or just bring these things back into state hands.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977

    So, are taxes going up or is the new PM going to borrow £90bn extra?

    Last I checked (admittedly a year or more ago) our debt interest payments were already £55bn or thereabouts.

    Taxes are going DOWN supposedly - so it's hitting the credit card big time.

    But fear not. With taxes slashed the "animal spirits" will be unleashed and it'll be go go go for the economy - in very short order this will translate to a bigger pie and all will partake.
  • EXCLUSIVE:

    I understand from my very well placed source (with very good credibility) that Keir Starmer plans to announce a suite of policies from the end of this year towards the next GE. Now the party is managed he wants to improve his policy standing with the public.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576

    Why is Truss allowed to escape Republicanism but Keir isn't

    He is? What is your point?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Well we now just borrow forever, the Tories no longer care about the young paying it all off, what a change the last decade has given.

    I am in favour of Liz's proposals, even if she has nicked them wholesale from Labour

    😄 you are hopeless horse! They are not remotely the same thing.

    If Ed Davey and Starmer can’t make very clear the difference between what they proposed and what Truss has gone and done, and gain shed loads of votes from the honest comparison, then they shouldn’t even be in politics in the first place.
  • HYUFD said:

    Why is Truss allowed to escape Republicanism but Keir isn't

    Sir Keir is, at least for me, he now says he supports a reformed monarchy so I take him at his word. As a knight of the realm I would expect nothing less
    Knights haven't always been in favour of the monarchy. Quite a few have lost their lives over it, Sir Roger Casement being the most recent.
  • CorrectHorseBattery3CorrectHorseBattery3 Posts: 1,850
    edited September 2022
    RobD said:

    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    Does it have to be paid off in a single year?
    Well David Cameron would not be pleased. Can we think about the children?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,739
    148grss said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.
    What? They are basically the same.
    Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits.
    I think you are just being silly at this point. The proposals are the same in how they are implemented, just Truss' is over a longer period, and comes with an extra £400.
    The difference is where "the bill" ends up, right? Labour are proposing a windfall tax on profits, which would pay some of the way, and Truss' plan seems to either be general taxes (so either increased taxes, more debt, or cuts somewhere) OR treating it like a loan? Labour's proposal would hit households and small businesses less, Truss' plan just spreads the pain out over a longer period of time, which may help prevent a meltdown right now, but wouldn't really solve the issue (neither does a windfall tax, really).

    The big issue is that this is just a market failure - huge profiteering is happening and people cannot choose to just not use gas or electricity because that would mean no fridge, no cooker, no heating etc. all things we have designed the world to just need to survive now. So we could go Brown's way - make any companies taking money give the government shares in the company (which the gov would just sell off at less than market value later down the road anyway, but would arguably give a short term ability for the government to try and reduce profiteering) or just bring these things back into state hands.
    Whose profits? More or Less did a podcast recently on this question and concluded that those making the money are corporations in the wholesale market who are not UK-based.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    War bonds, probably paid off over 30 or 40 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    She looks relatively sprightly for a 96 year old, the fact that any 96 year old could go anytime soon though is hardly major news
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,739
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    I thought she looked very well considering.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Therese Coffey to be deputy PM.

    Therese gets a non-job?
    Wake up and smell the Coffey!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Did your well placed friend have any insight on whether the sun might come up tomorrow?
    Yes, fair. Tho he is supremely well connected

    But yes she is nearly 100

    We really could do with her lasting another 5 years to get us through the crap. The psychosocial blow of London Bridge on top of the worst winter since the Fall of Rome is going to be quite something…
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    148grss said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.
    What? They are basically the same.
    Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits.
    I think you are just being silly at this point. The proposals are the same in how they are implemented, just Truss' is over a longer period, and comes with an extra £400.
    The difference is where "the bill" ends up, right? Labour are proposing a windfall tax on profits, which would pay some of the way, and Truss' plan seems to either be general taxes (so either increased taxes, more debt, or cuts somewhere) OR treating it like a loan? Labour's proposal would hit households and small businesses less, Truss' plan just spreads the pain out over a longer period of time, which may help prevent a meltdown right now, but wouldn't really solve the issue (neither does a windfall tax, really).

    The big issue is that this is just a market failure - huge profiteering is happening and people cannot choose to just not use gas or electricity because that would mean no fridge, no cooker, no heating etc. all things we have designed the world to just need to survive now. So we could go Brown's way - make any companies taking money give the government shares in the company (which the gov would just sell off at less than market value later down the road anyway, but would arguably give a short term ability for the government to try and reduce profiteering) or just bring these things back into state hands.
    The windfall tax would have been a drop in the ocean given the size of the package (although I suspect it will come eventually). Both of them would have required funding via general taxation. There's no way an intervention so large could have been paid for by a taxation in a single sector, limited to a small time period when prices are artificially inflated.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Andy_JS said:

    Therese Coffey to be deputy PM.

    A true successor to John Prescott, in many ways.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Therese Coffey to be deputy PM.

    Therese gets a non-job?
    Health as well
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited September 2022
    Driver said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.
    What? They are basically the same.
    Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits. The Libdem and Labour proposal and the Tory policy are chalk and cheese under the bonnet.
    Do you care about the effect on the public, or do you care about spouting divisive nonsense, trying to play the politics of envy?
    In the coming days a lot of media will do comparisons between the two schemes, and make a call on impact on the public, burden of debt shared around fairly or not in funding it, which will support what I posted, and make your rude post about my post being nothing but politics of envy look rather stupid. 🙂
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.

    Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.

    It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016

    “ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”

    PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂

    You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.

    And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
    Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would Badenoch
    Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.
    Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.

    Yougov today though has 19% of 2019 Tory voters now switching to Labour as Boris departs
    I'm certainly not.
  • Driver said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.
    What? They are basically the same.
    Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits. The Libdem and Labour proposal and the Tory policy are chalk and cheese under the bonnet.
    Do you care about the effect on the public, or do you care about spouting divisive nonsense, trying to play the politics of envy?
    I’m the one calling it straight today. Your the noted spinner on here in everything you post.
    Moon you're a Tory rofl
  • Betfair seem to be quite tardy on paying out. Come on already.

    Bet365 paid out a few minutes ago. Betfair Sportsbook this morning but the Exchange, well, who knows what they are waiting for?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    EXCLUSIVE:

    I understand from my very well placed source (with very good credibility) that Keir Starmer plans to announce a suite of policies from the end of this year towards the next GE. Now the party is managed he wants to improve his policy standing with the public.

    Starmer plans to announce policies between now and the next GE? Who'd have thunk it. ;)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    RobD said:

    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    Does it have to be paid off in a single year?
    And its just the working age population, as well.
    And of that, only the 'productive taxpayers', so not people on low incomes.
    Someone earning £20 k per year only pays something like £1800 tax per year.

  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    kinabalu said:

    So, are taxes going up or is the new PM going to borrow £90bn extra?

    Last I checked (admittedly a year or more ago) our debt interest payments were already £55bn or thereabouts.

    Taxes are going DOWN supposedly - so it's hitting the credit card big time.

    But fear not. With taxes slashed the "animal spirits" will be unleashed and it'll be go go go for the economy - in very short order this will translate to a bigger pie and all will partake.
    Covid has already shown that Modern Monetary Theory only works short term and results in inflation.

    So the Truss plan is to continue using MMT until your pound is worthless as the leaf in the HHGTTG (where 1 peanut ended up costing three deciduous forests)
  • That's a double digit lead Truss needs to overcome now, I think we will see a 20 pointer very soon
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So the Queen has now done her job and replaced Boris as PM with Truss.

    Now for Truss to do her job, go back to London, make an inspiring speech outside No 10, appoint an effective Cabinet and get on with tackling issues like cost of living
    I hope she doesn't just say "deliver" over and over again. That's not inspiring at all. In fact it's extremely irritating.
  • RobD said:

    EXCLUSIVE:

    I understand from my very well placed source (with very good credibility) that Keir Starmer plans to announce a suite of policies from the end of this year towards the next GE. Now the party is managed he wants to improve his policy standing with the public.

    Starmer plans to announce policies between now and the next GE? Who'd have thunk it. ;)
    Very happy to tell you what he will announce, my source's credibility is excellent as people here will agree, some have won lots of money
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Therese Coffey to be deputy PM.

    Therese gets a non-job?
    Wake up and smell the Coffey!
    A heady blend of piss, sherry and tobacco.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    Scott_xP said:
    Private eye cover incoming - any takers for a comical caption?
    HMQ: "Fifteen and counting!"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    So, are taxes going up or is the new PM going to borrow £90bn extra?

    Last I checked (admittedly a year or more ago) our debt interest payments were already £55bn or thereabouts.

    Taxes are going DOWN supposedly - so it's hitting the credit card big time.

    But fear not. With taxes slashed the "animal spirits" will be unleashed and it'll be go go go for the economy - in very short order this will translate to a bigger pie and all will partake.
    Covid has already shown that Modern Monetary Theory only works short term and results in inflation.

    So the Truss plan is to continue using MMT until your pound is worthless as the leaf in the HHGTTG (where 1 peanut ended up costing three deciduous forests)
    It's weird, because I've seen articles say that she is also concerned about the loose monetary policy of the BoE, that there is too much money in circulation.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    That is a disastrous poll for Truss!

    She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!

    Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
    Nope. She is utterly shit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/jun/30/uk.polls

    Brown bounce 7 points in polling conducted 27th/28th after he took over on the 27th just as a benchmark
  • Tipping it down, water running freely. Be surprised if there isn't some flooding.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    That is a disastrous poll for Truss!

    She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!

    Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
    Nope. She is utterly shit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/jun/30/uk.polls

    Brown bounce 7 points in polling conducted 27th/28th after he took over on the 27th just as a benchmark
    The Truss Plunge
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Truss reminds IDS of Mrs Thatcher. IDS rejects a cabinet place,
  • Hearing that Jacob Rees Mogg is expected to take on the role of business secretary *and* the junior minister's responsibilities of energy and climate change later today

    Word is at least two Tories have turned down the jr role which would have worked closely with him

    God help us all
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov

    Con: 28% (-3 from 23-24 Aug)
    Lab: 43% (+4)
    Lib Dem: 11% (=)
    Green: 6% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-2)
    SNP: 5% (=)


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1567107622163079170?s=20&t=koL0fjMmGxvoOqgFMiGhwg

    Labour now open up a 12% lead in the Midlands and Wales, a 26% point lead in the North and a 35% lead in London. Labour even 4% ahead in the South.

    However the Tories up to 22% in the Yougov Scottish subsample, with the SNP on 46% and Labour on 20%.

    So so far the main swing to the Tories with a looming Truss premiership is in Scotland, everywhere else has swung further to Labour. However the poll was taken before she became PM so we need a week or so to see if she gets any bounce

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/06/voting-intention-con-28-lab-43-31-aug-1-sep-2022-a

    It's over, H, isn't it. Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition.

    Re the Scotland bounce - is that because they really hated Johnson up there?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962

    Sandpit said:

    That is a disastrous poll for Truss!

    She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!

    Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
    Compared to Johnson it is a disaster, he'd already had a bounce by now
    Johnson pre-appointment to post-appointment, was 6% better off (3% swing) in the 6 polls of each major pollster.

    YG: 25/21 to 31/21 (Con position +6)
    ComRes: 25/28 to 28/27 (+4)
    Surv: 23/29 to 28/24 (+10)
    Opinium: 23/25 to 30/28 (+4)
    BMG: 28/27 to 31/25 (+5)
    Ipsos: 26/24 to 34/24 (+8)
  • RobD said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    So, are taxes going up or is the new PM going to borrow £90bn extra?

    Last I checked (admittedly a year or more ago) our debt interest payments were already £55bn or thereabouts.

    Taxes are going DOWN supposedly - so it's hitting the credit card big time.

    But fear not. With taxes slashed the "animal spirits" will be unleashed and it'll be go go go for the economy - in very short order this will translate to a bigger pie and all will partake.
    Covid has already shown that Modern Monetary Theory only works short term and results in inflation.

    So the Truss plan is to continue using MMT until your pound is worthless as the leaf in the HHGTTG (where 1 peanut ended up costing three deciduous forests)
    It's weird, because I've seen articles say that she is also concerned about the loose monetary policy of the BoE, that there is too much money in circulation.
    if she loosens fiscally it will put pressure on bank to tighten monetary conditions.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    War bonds, probably paid off over 30 or 40 years.
    Is 'war bond' specific in meaning? The ones we had for WW1 and perhaps WW2 couldn't be paid off at all unless HMG volunteered to do so (or, on one occasion, cut the interest rate and had to offer a redemption opportunity in return, for a limited period). There were still some knocking around in my family's finances till about 1977.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Sandpit said:

    That is a disastrous poll for Truss!

    She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!

    Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
    Compared to Johnson it is a disaster, he'd already had a bounce by now
    Johnson pre-appointment to post-appointment, was 6% better off (3% swing) in the 6 polls of each major pollster.

    YG: 25/21 to 31/21 (Con position +6)
    ComRes: 25/28 to 28/27 (+4)
    Surv: 23/29 to 28/24 (+10)
    Opinium: 23/25 to 30/28 (+4)
    BMG: 28/27 to 31/25 (+5)
    Ipsos: 26/24 to 34/24 (+8)
    Labour has literally doubled its support. Starmer is a good leader.
  • eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Private eye cover incoming - any takers for a comical caption?
    HMQ: "Fifteen and counting!"
    HMQ: "Have you come far?"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    These leaks about the energy plans raises a question.
    Why did we have to wait for them?
    She outlined almost every other plan for everything else. Would this have been uniquely horrifying to the membership?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    That is a disastrous poll for Truss!

    She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!

    Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
    Nope. She is utterly shit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/jun/30/uk.polls

    Brown bounce 7 points in polling conducted 27th/28th after he took over on the 27th just as a benchmark
    Polls will tell us nothing until we have seen the impact of the energy price/COL policies. This is not the same situation as Brown taking over, who inherited the job in fairly benign economic circumstances (Northern Rock was still to come) where the major issue Labour had at that point was how much of the country was pig-sick of Blair.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    If those polls persist then Boris will be back in Number 10 by next spring
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    She looks relatively sprightly for a 96 year old, the fact that any 96 year old could go anytime soon though is hardly major news
    My thoughts exactly. My Dad is also 96 and has commented for the last 20 odd years he will not have long to go. He did so just the other day so I looked up his life expectancy and told him it was 99 which cheered him up no end.
  • Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
  • The detail of the energy price cap seems to be all over the place. That suggests that Team Truss knows what it wants to do but has not yet worked out how to do it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    I am not a royalist, but hats off to her Maj, and I am greatly relieved that the nation has been saved from a Johnsonian Peppa Pig eulogy.
  • Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Did your well placed friend have any insight on whether the sun might come up tomorrow?
    Yes, fair. Tho he is supremely well connected

    But yes she is nearly 100

    We really could do with her lasting another 5 years to get us through the crap. The psychosocial blow of London Bridge on top of the worst winter since the Fall of Rome is going to be quite something…
    And that's without thinking of the Truss funeral speech.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Looking forward to agreeing with something you write - it's been too long - but the wait must go on.

    She looks fine. She looks well. I predict a few years yet. This "London Bridge" thing is far from imminent imho.
  • The detail of the energy price cap seems to be all over the place. That suggests that Team Truss knows what it wants to do but has not yet worked out how to do it.

    That's probably true. She's only just become PM. Anyone would need the actual mechanics of the civil service to work out the fine detail of it.

    That's not a negative, just how it is.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,152

    The detail of the energy price cap seems to be all over the place. That suggests that Team Truss knows what it wants to do but has not yet worked out how to do it.

    Or that the journalists don't know. Some were confidently briefing that nothing would be done re COVID support, five minutes before Rishi announced furlough.
  • Is Mike a Lib Dem
  • Time was when a departing PM would be left to their own devices to return from the Palace after resigning (no longer being entitled to a government car as no longer being part of the government).

    It would have been mildly amusing to have seen Johnson marooned in the Highlands.



    https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1567116044761710592?s=46&t=ogZtt8PS6z6xpYoChJrTxg

    Is that really true? I don't remember Blair, Brown, Cameron, May etc hitch-hiking back from the Palace?
    No, but I remember the point being made that it was no longer the Prime Ministerial car as they head off and focus switches to the arrival of the PM to be.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.
    What? They are basically the same.
    Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits.
    I think you are just being silly at this point. The proposals are the same in how they are implemented, just Truss' is over a longer period, and comes with an extra £400.
    I just simply say go and read up like I did on the differences between what the libdems proposed (stolen by Labour) what the energy industry counter proposed which Truss has signed up to.

    The two schemes not the same in crucial ways, firstly the very different costs to the tax payer/borrowing that is this largesse the government is coming up with, not with their money remember, but ours, and crucially, how that money is used, who that bung of lolly is given to.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,662
    dixiedean said:

    These leaks about the energy plans raises a question.
    Why did we have to wait for them?
    She outlined almost every other plan for everything else. Would this have been uniquely horrifying to the membership?

    Given the variance in 'leaks' being presented - I wonder if she's mentioning different plans to different people to see who leaks and who doesn't - and who they leak too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,152
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Looking forward to agreeing with something you write - it's been too long - but the wait must go on.

    She looks fine. She looks well. I predict a few years yet. This "London Bridge" thing is far from imminent imho.
    Yes. Plenty of people decades younger who look far, far worse.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sandpit said:

    That is a disastrous poll for Truss!

    She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!

    Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
    Compared to Johnson it is a disaster, he'd already had a bounce by now
    Johnson pre-appointment to post-appointment, was 6% better off (3% swing) in the 6 polls of each major pollster.

    YG: 25/21 to 31/21 (Con position +6)
    ComRes: 25/28 to 28/27 (+4)
    Surv: 23/29 to 28/24 (+10)
    Opinium: 23/25 to 30/28 (+4)
    BMG: 28/27 to 31/25 (+5)
    Ipsos: 26/24 to 34/24 (+8)
    Labour has literally doubled its support. Starmer is a good leader.
    That was in the plague on all houses post-extension polling. Labour start with a smidge above 10 point lead amongst active pollsters, so reducing that to 4 or 5 would be par.

    I am expecting some poll movement.
  • That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,491
    edited September 2022

    Is Mike a Lib Dem

    He stood for the Lib Dems in a general election.

    IIRC he was also a councillor for the Yellow Peril.

    But that was in the 90s.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264

    The detail of the energy price cap seems to be all over the place. That suggests that Team Truss knows what it wants to do but has not yet worked out how to do it.

    No

    They know what they want to do (tax cuts) but that doesn't solve the problem.

    Solving the problem means upsetting the headbangers.

    So they are churning out options to see which one they can live with.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Looking forward to agreeing with something you write - it's been too long - but the wait must go on.

    She looks fine. She looks well. I predict a few years yet. This "London Bridge" thing is far from imminent imho.
    I’m not going to ghoulishly speculate even further but I clearly disagree

    And on this I obvs hope/wish you are right. It’s gonna be like a parent going, but for the entire nation

    She’s now about 2 foot seven but it will be like an apparently immortal and enormous tree tumbling in the forest. A huge scary space will open in the canopy


  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    On average, a 96 year old should make it to 99. I think with her healthcare she's likely to send herself a telegram.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    A very well placed source tells me that rain is on the way.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So the Queen has now done her job and replaced Boris as PM with Truss.

    Now for Truss to do her job, go back to London, make an inspiring speech outside No 10, appoint an effective Cabinet and get on with tackling issues like cost of living
    Time to get on board and give her your full support
    I will give her my support as I have given every new Tory leader my support since I joined the party under William Hague, even when you were voting for Blair and New Labour
    "MY PARTY RIGHT OR WRONG!"
    "It's my party and I'll cry if I want to'.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571

    Is Mike a Lib Dem

    Is the Pope Catholic? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    Time was when a departing PM would be left to their own devices to return from the Palace after resigning (no longer being entitled to a government car as no longer being part of the government).

    It would have been mildly amusing to have seen Johnson marooned in the Highlands.



    https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1567116044761710592?s=46&t=ogZtt8PS6z6xpYoChJrTxg

    Is that really true? I don't remember Blair, Brown, Cameron, May etc hitch-hiking back from the Palace?
    No, but I remember the point being made that it was no longer the Prime Ministerial car as they head off and focus switches to the arrival of the PM to be.

    I recall the story that after Heath lost the 1974 election and was unable to form a new government he went to Buckingham Palace as PM with full police escort, detectives and chauffeur. When he had been to see the Queen he discovered they had all gone and on asking why was basically told to make his own way home as he had now resigned
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    So, are taxes going up or is the new PM going to borrow £90bn extra?

    Last I checked (admittedly a year or more ago) our debt interest payments were already £55bn or thereabouts.

    Taxes are going DOWN supposedly - so it's hitting the credit card big time.

    But fear not. With taxes slashed the "animal spirits" will be unleashed and it'll be go go go for the economy - in very short order this will translate to a bigger pie and all will partake.
    Covid has already shown that Modern Monetary Theory only works short term and results in inflation.

    So the Truss plan is to continue using MMT until your pound is worthless as the leaf in the HHGTTG (where 1 peanut ended up costing three deciduous forests)
    Yes - circles can't be squared, water can't run uphill, wealth can't be printed.

    Let's embrace adulthood as a country. It won't kill us.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    All 96 year olds are elderly and in poor health. The bereavement effect lasts a year max and she is well past that. Crucially she has something to live for which is keeping the reign of awful Chaz n Camz as brief as possible before Baldy ascends in glory to the throne. She is a 4/1 shot to make 100 based only on age and sex, and I'd have a bit of that if there were a market.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Prince Andrew?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Useless fact: it was 10,214 days between Truss calling for the monarchy to be abolished at the 1994 LD conference and agreeing to form a government today.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/the-liberal-democrat-conference-monarchy-survives-but-party-wants-pounds-10m-civil-list-cut-1450093.html
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Lennon said:

    dixiedean said:

    These leaks about the energy plans raises a question.
    Why did we have to wait for them?
    She outlined almost every other plan for everything else. Would this have been uniquely horrifying to the membership?

    Given the variance in 'leaks' being presented - I wonder if she's mentioning different plans to different people to see who leaks and who doesn't - and who they leak too.
    Or, doesn’t actually have a plan, is still just floating paper boats up the creek to see which groupings like or hate them, and wether the opposition sticks and stones can sink them before officially announced.

    I say again, to tell us we have no idea of Truss policy after a campaign in which she shared her ideology with us, so we have to wait and see and not pre judge, does insult us a bit - rather like the spinners on her, like Driver, are simply trying to spin to buy time.
  • That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.

    Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.
  • First names of the last four finance ministers—
    France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
    Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
    Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
    Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid


    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    On average, a 96 year old should make it to 99. I think with her healthcare she's likely to send herself a telegram.
    Would be great if so imagine the celebrations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens



  • Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    War bonds, probably paid off over 30 or 40 years.
    Is 'war bond' specific in meaning? The ones we had for WW1 and perhaps WW2 couldn't be paid off at all unless HMG volunteered to do so (or, on one occasion, cut the interest rate and had to offer a redemption opportunity in return, for a limited period). There were still some knocking around in my family's finances till about 1977.
    Some of them were called Post War Credits. My father was often heard complaining about them (inter alia).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    I've been therapy free for six months.

    Fantastic to hear - long may it last.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.

    Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.

    It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016

    “ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”

    PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂

    You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.

    And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
    Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would Badenoch
    Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.
    Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.
    You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.

    Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.

    One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
    From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited September 2022

    Is Mike a Lib Dem

    Mike Smithson? I think it’s safe to assume that.

    So you have got something right today. 🙂
  • Is Mike a Lib Dem

    Do horses shit in the Royal Parks? :lol:
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
  • That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.

    Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.

    I expect some kind of boost, though I have no idea how big it will be. However, if she doesn't get one, she is in deep, deep trouble.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,977
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Looking forward to agreeing with something you write - it's been too long - but the wait must go on.

    She looks fine. She looks well. I predict a few years yet. This "London Bridge" thing is far from imminent imho.
    I’m not going to ghoulishly speculate even further but I clearly disagree

    And on this I obvs hope/wish you are right. It’s gonna be like a parent going, but for the entire nation

    She’s now about 2 foot seven but it will be like an apparently immortal and enormous tree tumbling in the forest. A huge scary space will open in the canopy
    She's not Bob Dylan ffs!
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
    Perspective is distorting the relative heights - Truss is closer to the camera.
  • Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    On average, a 96 year old should make it to 99. I think with her healthcare she's likely to send herself a telegram.
    As regards the average 96 year old, that's just not the case. Actuarially, the probability of a woman who reaches 96 living to 99 is about 39%.

    As you say, HMQ will have better care etc so improved odds. But, as you get to that age, your odds of dying in the near future just rocket on an actuarial basis.
This discussion has been closed.