Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The support of Tory MPs – Truss’s biggest challenge – politicalbetting.com

124678

Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
    She’s just further away….
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Stocky said:

    darkage said:

    The idea that 40 billion can be just whacked on to general taxation is incomprehensible.
    About £550 per head?

    They'll borrow it. The public's thirst for ever increasing spending on condition that it is borrowed isn't close to being quenched.
    Is there a point when our credit rating becomes so compromised because we have maxed out our borrowing capacity that we can only borrow on loan shark rates.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    The detail of the energy price cap seems to be all over the place. That suggests that Team Truss knows what it wants to do but has not yet worked out how to do it.

    One of the Truss spinners will admonish you any moment saying she only started the job today, we shouldn’t expect a detailed plan already.

    And then accuse you of politics of envy 😆
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.

    Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.

    Nationalise them.
  • eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.

    Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.

    It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016

    “ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”

    PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂

    You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.

    And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
    Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would Badenoch
    Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.
    Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.
    You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.

    Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.

    One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
    From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
    She has been foreign Secretary for 12 months and was a trade Secretary before that. She will be more well known in international circles than most of the other cabinet ministers.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Is it wrong that in my imagination, HM then chases the PM out of the room waving her stick?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,265
    How is it all going so far then...

    IDS confirms he was offered and turned down a job in the Truss government #Wato
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1567124807296114688
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    All 96 year olds are elderly and in poor health. The bereavement effect lasts a year max and she is well past that. Crucially she has something to live for which is keeping the reign of awful Chaz n Camz as brief as possible before Baldy ascends in glory to the throne. She is a 4/1 shot to make 100 based only on age and sex, and I'd have a bit of that if there were a market.
    I'm sure that upper-class status should increase that probability, as should access to the best medical treatment possible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity….

    Now that there’s a peculiar remark!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited September 2022
    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    On average, a 96 year old should make it to 99. I think with her healthcare she's likely to send herself a telegram.
    She could send herself a text using One2One.
    (Yes I know they don't exist anymore).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sandpit said:

    That is a disastrous poll for Truss!

    She’s been PM for literally 10 minutes!

    Shall we at least wait until she appoints a Cabinet, takes PMQs, and makes a statement on energy bills, before dismissing her out of hand?
    Compared to Johnson it is a disaster, he'd already had a bounce by now
    Johnson pre-appointment to post-appointment, was 6% better off (3% swing) in the 6 polls of each major pollster.

    YG: 25/21 to 31/21 (Con position +6)
    ComRes: 25/28 to 28/27 (+4)
    Surv: 23/29 to 28/24 (+10)
    Opinium: 23/25 to 30/28 (+4)
    BMG: 28/27 to 31/25 (+5)
    Ipsos: 26/24 to 34/24 (+8)
    Labour has literally doubled its support. Starmer is a good leader.
    Alternate view is the Tories really have governed badly recently, with that on one side of the seesaw pulling it down, the other side of the seesaw goes up without doing much.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    edited September 2022

    First names of the last four finance ministers—
    France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
    Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
    Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
    Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid


    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128

    Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,980
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    He's been undressed by kings and he's seen some things that a far right culture warrior aint supposed to see ...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.

    Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.

    It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016

    “ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”

    PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂

    You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.

    And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
    Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would Badenoch
    Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.
    Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.
    You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.

    Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.

    One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
    From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
    She has been foreign Secretary for 12 months and was a trade Secretary before that. She will be more well known in international circles than most of the other cabinet ministers.
    But she certainly doesn't carry the baggage that Johnson did.
  • Ah well everyone, remember we’ve got Fizzy Lizzy’s speech to the nation to look forward to later. Set your watches.

    Can’t wait for the bit where she tells us she’ll deliver us from bad delivery of delivered policies and will deliver more delivery than anyone has ever delivered before.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    edited September 2022
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.

    Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.

    It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016

    “ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”

    PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂

    You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.

    And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
    Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would Badenoch
    Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.
    Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.
    You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.

    Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.

    One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
    From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
    I doubt Truss will have any better relations with Macron and Biden and Scholz etc than Boris did, given her position on Brexit and the NI Protocol is just as hardline as Boris' if not more so. She will also not have got the bounce Sunak would with Modi and India as the first UK PM of Indian origin. Putin and Xi will of course still hate her. Trudeau and Albanese and Ardern will welcome her as the UK PM, a key ally for them but she is still a conservative and they are left liberals.

    Whatever else you think of Boris he also had global recognition despite the clown act, something only 3 UK PMs in my lifetime have had, Thatcher, Blair and Boris. Truss is unlikely to be able to project herself globally in the same way.

    She has been welcomed in Ukraine and should get on well with Zelensky and maybe the Japanese and Israeli PMs but beyond them will likely have few close allies internationally. She will have to hope Meloni's rightwing alliance wins the Italian election later this month to give her at least one firm ally at G7 summits

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    True fact. Leon was once a third Krankie. They tried him out in the Cromer summer season in 1978. It didn't work out. Felt weird and creepy apparently, but he's had his finger on the pulse of the UK establishment ever since.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    *Very* good point. She is not for instance going to need amputations because the bedsores get into her bones.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 4,298
    edited September 2022
    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.

    So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.

    Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.

    It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016

    “ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”

    PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂

    You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.

    And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
    Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would Badenoch
    Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.
    Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.
    You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.

    Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.

    One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
    From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
    She has been foreign Secretary for 12 months and was a trade Secretary before that. She will be more well known in international circles than most of the other cabinet ministers.
    But she certainly doesn't carry the baggage that Johnson did.
    It's all muscle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
    Was he trying on that new Arai you bought him in advance of your first two up ride on the Gixxer?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
    A PB anecdote for the ages.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Driver said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    No, there were two very different types of freeze, the one Labour put forward, the cheaper for the nation, and the counter proposal from the energy fat cats who didn’t like how they would be hurt more under Labours proposal.
    What? They are basically the same.
    Not at all, very different, especially In overall cost to the nation - the Energy Fat Cat proposal Truss has agreed with, the energy’s company’s get the governments bung and much less of a hit on their profits. The Libdem and Labour proposal and the Tory policy are chalk and cheese under the bonnet.
    Do you care about the effect on the public, or do you care about spouting divisive nonsense, trying to play the politics of envy?
    I’m the one calling it straight today. Your the noted spinner on here in everything you post.
    Moon you're a Tory rofl
    I see myself as rather centrist to be honest. I have done some charity work this summer, and seeing the costs of crap lisseez faire government at first hand has made me a more belligerent and better poster on PB maybe.

    If I am upsetting both you and Driver in equal propositions, I must be doing a good balanced job in my honest postings, scything down everybody else’s spin 😇
  • Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.

    If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.
  • Jonathan said:

    True fact. Leon was once a third Krankie. They tried him out in the Cromer summer season in 1978. It didn't work out. Felt weird and creepy apparently, but he's had his finger on the pulse of the UK establishment ever since.

    Weirder and creepier than the Krankies are already? Seems unlikely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited September 2022

    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.

    So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
    They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.
    Oh he's fine, but like many on PB and for no good reason whatsoever, he is quite insecure and competitive; a challenging mix.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.
    If ever there was a proof needed that travel doesn't broaden the mind we need look no further.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
    That is proper old aristocracy insanity, and fortifies my impression that you are proper, castles and earldoms, posh, and that your lifestyle and politics are an enraged rebellion against inheriting Gormenghast.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    NEW NEWS: The Masked Singer is back on.

    Rejoice!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited September 2022
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    I thought she looked very well considering.
    I thought so too, she is looking quite bright in these pictures.

    I can see myself properly loafing on that gorgeous sofa on the right. Love those sturdy round arms 😍
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,980
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
    Did you make sure to wear high collars around her? :smile:
  • The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.

    Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.

    Nationalise them.

    Your answer to everything: nationalise!

    And as has been seen in the past, blanket nationalisation is just as bad (perhaps even worse) than blanket privatisation.

    So a question: when you call for 'energy' to be nationalised, what exactly are you saying? What's the program? What constitutes 'energy' ?
  • There are reports that Ukraine has launched another counterattack around Kharkiv.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,980

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
    A PB anecdote for the ages.
    "while they were watching pointless" ...
  • Scott_xP said:
    Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.
  • Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.

    If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.

    I agree. I suspect she’ll get it, but it will take a short while to sink in.

    My prediction - by October/November the narrative will be “oh didn’t we underestimate Liz, she’s doing a really good job in challenging circumstances” before it all implodes next year.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,155

    The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.

    Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.

    Nationalise them.

    Your answer to everything: nationalise!

    And as has been seen in the past, blanket nationalisation is just as bad (perhaps even worse) than blanket privatisation.

    So a question: when you call for 'energy' to be nationalised, what exactly are you saying? What's the program? What constitutes 'energy' ?
    First we nationalise everything. Including all the Furrin countries with natural gas that are selling it to us.

    There’s a word for that in the dictionary, so they say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    Scott_xP said:
    Why does "Irish Unity" have a Palestinian flag?
    Perhaps because Irish Nationalists who hate the UK also hate Israel too?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,127

    Scott_xP said:
    Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.
    And nor was Cameron, who wasn't "brought down" at all...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,994
    TOPPING said:

    NEW NEWS: The Masked Singer is back on.

    Rejoice!

    Hmmm… fortuitous timing for someone to fill a pepper pig outfit
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.

    If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.

    I'm not sure the public have yet grasped that this package will simple retain the current level of unaffordability rather than actually reduce their bills
  • Scott_xP said:
    Private eye cover incoming - any takers for a comical caption?
    HMQ: "Do you know Leon?"
  • That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.

    Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.
    I think she could pull it off. If the package is genuinely effective, like furlough, then it could be a game changer. Most people are worried about what the energy crisis will do to themselves, business, the economy, friends and family. It is really BIG. If Lightweight Liz turns out to be Energised Elizabeth then we might all get a pleasant surprise. If added to this she doesn't stuff her cabinet with sycophants like Bozo did, I might even consider returning to the fold. Let's face it, she wasn't dumb enough to vote Leave was she?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    TOPPING said:

    NEW NEWS: The Masked Singer is back on.

    Rejoice!

    Well that's Boris's next gig sorted. He will be belting out "Non, je ne regrette rien" dressed as an enormous, swivel eyed warthog.

    "No change there" I hear you say.

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 4,298
    edited September 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.

    So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
    They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
    Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?

    At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.

    The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
  • Foxy said:

    First names of the last four finance ministers—
    France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
    Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
    Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
    Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid


    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128

    Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!
    Debt as % GDP:

    Italy: 151
    France: 113
    UK: 96
    Germany: 69
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,827
    edited September 2022

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
    Perspective is distorting the relative heights - Truss is closer to the camera.
    Yes, a wide angle lens will do that.

    She looks OK for 96 to me.

    Mind you, my father in law is 92 and still climbs ladders to sort out the guttering (despite 'advice')
  • The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.

    Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.

    Nationalise them.

    Isn't the problem the long-term geo-political strategy with energy security which is not set by the private sector but rather has been set by the.. government?

    In this case, it's probably been quite useful to get some policy brainstorming done by some of the private power companies who have, going beyond their remit, tried to analyse the problem as a whole and suggest policy solutions on tax and spend.

    As it happens, it sounds like their policy solution is going to be much closer to the mark than the one Trust advocated for weeks on end which was a laughable change in National Insurance. What a farce.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    edited September 2022
    ...

    Ah well everyone, remember we’ve got Fizzy Lizzy’s speech to the nation to look forward to later. Set your watches.

    Can’t wait for the bit where she tells us she’ll deliver us from bad delivery of delivered policies and will deliver more delivery than anyone has ever delivered before.

    For sure, the Prayer of St Francis of Assisi incoming shortly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
    Did she not teach you the signs to watch for ?

    (Have been desperately manoeuvring hand mirrors for the last couple of minutes...)
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
    Perspective is distorting the relative heights - Truss is closer to the camera.
    Yes, you can see the effect of perspective by comparing the apparent height of each end of the sofas.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Scott_xP said:

    How is it all going so far then...

    IDS confirms he was offered and turned down a job in the Truss government #Wato
    https://twitter.com/greenmiranda/status/1567124807296114688

    Is that actually true? Strange to me, as he was front and centre of Team Truss this summer. 🤔

    There’s lots of left/right, Rishi and the assassins/Truss and the loyalists ways commentators will weigh and measure this cabinet, but too green/balanced with experience is one of the main ways it can be found wanting.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,994

    There are reports that Ukraine has launched another counterattack around Kharkiv.

    Perhaps Liz is a lucky general and the Russian army will collapse before Xmas
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.

    So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
    They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
    Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?

    At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.

    The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. Carers can shave a bit off your risk, but the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
    I have no idea about other healthcare systems around the world, save for the fact that, as @Richard_Tyndall often and acutely points out, ours is best in many areas apart from the health outcomes and saving lives categories.

    I haven't looked at the age-adjusted stats. Perhaps one for our PB colleagues.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.
    I think it’s a three year old video from before Boris orchestrated the election.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.

    Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.
    I think she could pull it off. If the package is genuinely effective, like furlough, then it could be a game changer. Most people are worried about what the energy crisis will do to themselves, business, the economy, friends and family. It is really BIG. If Lightweight Liz turns out to be Energised Elizabeth then we might all get a pleasant surprise. If added to this she doesn't stuff her cabinet with sycophants like Bozo did, I might even consider returning to the fold. Let's face it, she wasn't dumb enough to vote Leave was she?
    Hallelujah the Blue Wall is saved!
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.
    If ever there was a proof needed that travel doesn't broaden the mind we need look no further.
    Perhaps it is a bell curve. There comes a point where you have so much travel that you start to be no longer enlightened by it. A kind of diminishing return of cultural over-consumption.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
    Perspective is distorting the relative heights - Truss is closer to the camera.
    Yes, a wide angle lens will do that.

    She looks OK for 96 to me.

    Mind you, my father in law is 92 and still climbs ladders to sort out the guttering (despite 'advice')
    I think LT's feet have been cut off in that amateur fashion because she would look full on Brobdingnag if you left them in

    But that's another reason why the odds are in favour of HMQ. She does not do her own gutters, and falls and broken bones are a major reasonwhy oldies end up in hospital
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The fact I have regularly DONE SMACK with the BLOKE WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S FUCKING BEDROOM is, I feel, sufficient evidence of my superior royal connections and any further demurral from you can be ascribed to social envy
  • That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.

    Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.
    I think she could pull it off. If the package is genuinely effective, like furlough, then it could be a game changer. Most people are worried about what the energy crisis will do to themselves, business, the economy, friends and family. It is really BIG. If Lightweight Liz turns out to be Energised Elizabeth then we might all get a pleasant surprise. If added to this she doesn't stuff her cabinet with sycophants like Bozo did, I might even consider returning to the fold. Let's face it, she wasn't dumb enough to vote Leave was she?
    We will know soon enough...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,544
    edited September 2022

    Truss needs a big bounce after the energy price cap is announced. It will never be more popular than during the first few days after it is made public. It's not actually going to make anyone better off, it is just going to stop people getting worse off, so will quickly just become part of the furniture.

    If it all goes well, it may lead people to reappraise her and give her a little bit time. If it fails to make much of a dent in Labour's lead, then the writing is probably on the wall.

    I'm not sure the public have yet grasped that this package will simple retain the current level of unaffordability rather than actually reduce their bills

    That's my point, really. It's going to be really popular - and then largely forgotten. By contrast, the furlough was something a lot of people experienced over a long period of time.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.
    Oh he's fine, but like many on PB and for no good reason whatsoever, he is quite insecure and competitive; a challenging mix.
    You are quite brilliant at unwitting self-appraisal
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,265
    Given the briefing so far, is it possible Truss does not announce the energy plan today?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Foxy said:

    First names of the last four finance ministers—
    France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
    Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
    Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
    Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid


    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128

    Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!
    Debt as % GDP:

    Italy: 151
    France: 113
    UK: 96
    Germany: 69
    Is that the measure that was UK under 40% in 2007 - before years of Austerity (for some) to bring it down! 🫣

    Where would US be on that current list, if I have been paying attention, PBs St Bart the Pirate will comment here that 140% is actually no problem at all, only beyond that it goes squizzy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The fact I have regularly DONE SMACK with the BLOKE WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S FUCKING BEDROOM is, I feel, sufficient evidence of my superior royal connections and any further demurral from you can be ascribed to social envy
    Social climbing isn't supposed to mean actual climbing, you know ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911
    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Today, for first time in history, we will have six former Prime Ministers still alive: John Major (79), Tony Blair (69), Gordon Brown (71), David Cameron (55), Theresa May (65) and Boris Johnson (58). What’s remarkable is how young these ex-PMs are - none is yet 80.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1567074637825150978

    This makes me realise that I have reached another one of those age realisations.
    It started when an England football player was younger than me. The next landmark was when there was an England cricket player younger than me. Then the England football/cricket captain wer younger than me, then all the whole team was younger than me.

    Gradually the politicians take over the role with MPs younger than me, then a LOTO younger than me (Milliband) but today for the first time there is a Prime Minister younger than me!
    It’s when you are older than the US President that you really need to worry
    oh …phew!

  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    C'mon, Smarkets or Betfair - open a book on what words will or won't be included in Truss's speech outside No10 today. Or how many times she will say "deliver" or one of its cognates. I predict 6.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.

    So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
    They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
    Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?

    At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.

    The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
    Yes. Shapes of bell curves is unilluminating though when you are looking at individual cases. Absent a hotline to her personal physician, every factor you can think of is in her favour: safety from accidental falls, quality of life (surgeons often decline to operate on post 90s if they think they are having a shit time anyway), longevity of mum (dad irrelevant as tobacco involved), motivation to live, mental acuity, quality of care to be expected if needed. All going her way.

    Medical friends of mine said in 2011 that the NHS would have let Prince Philip croak if he had been anyone else. So there's an extra 9 years royalness gets you.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448
    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, although Sunak topped the ballot of Tory MPs he did not get a majority of them to back him either and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.

    Truss' membership support was not overwhelming however, she got only 57% of Tory members to back her, which while clear was far less than the 67% of Tory members who voted for Cameron in 2005 and the 66% who voted for Boris in 2019 and even less than the 60% who voted for IDS in 2001.

    It was though about the same as the 56% of Labour members who voted for Starmer in 2020 and actually slightly more than the 49% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn in 2015, though less than the 59% of Labour members who voted to re elect Corbyn in 2016

    “ and most Tory MPs have now endorsed Truss after she gained support from some Mordaunt MPs for example.”

    PBs St Bart used the same laughable spin - truth is it was only after the greasy polers saw how the wind was blowing 🙂

    You are wrong, Mike Smithson is right - Truss struggles in all MP Ballots reflect how her crap skills set and policy outlook is not rated at all by her MPs.

    And not liked by her membership either, as she got less than 50% to endorse her despite being clear winner for weeks - and if it had been two horse race with discredited and barmy Boris she would have been soundly beaten by him is the truth here.
    Boris would have beaten Truss with the membership yes, as would Badenoch
    Although I am not voting Tory at this stage in my life (right wing populism is not Conservative enough for me) I am sure I understand how you feel - you pointed out swapping Truss in for Boris is stupid and would result in this meltdown with no comeback six months before they actually did it! So I am sorry this has happened to you. Of course all the lefty’s on here and in the country wanted Boris out the way and are far happier with Truss - it speaks volumes - but they will tell you Boris had to go, part of their hatred was, he was a winner, but in terms of getting swingback as midterm drew to a close, Boris was still the better option for the Tories, if that is the only factor which matters.
    Indeed, the lefties and liberals on here of course are much happier with Truss than Boris, however none of them will vote for Truss over Starmer or Davey.
    You would certainly count me as one of the "lefties and liberals on here", so... as I see it, it's not as black and white as you make out.

    Many of Johnson's policies were centre right, and Truss' policies are likely to be much more to the right. So in that respect I'm not "much happier". There is the plus point that the Conservatives will struggle to form a government after the next GE, but they would have under struggled with Johnson anyway.

    One aspect which will be much better for Truss and therefore Britain is with international relations.
    From day 1 Johnson was internationally famous a Clown, someone who you just can't take seriously at eg G7 summits. Truss is barely known outside the UK, which at least means that she will be taken at face value when dealing with other world leaders.
    I doubt Truss will have any better relations with Macron and Biden and Scholz etc than Boris did, given her position on Brexit and the NI Protocol is just as hardline as Boris' if not more so. She will also not have got the bounce Sunak would with Modi and India as the first UK PM of Indian origin. Putin and Xi will of course still hate her. Trudeau and Albanese and Ardern will welcome her as the UK PM, a key ally for them but she is still a conservative and they are left liberals.

    Whatever else you think of Boris he also had global recognition despite the clown act, something only 3 UK PMs in my lifetime have had, Thatcher, Blair and Boris. Truss is unlikely to be able to project herself globally in the same way.

    She has been welcomed in Ukraine and should get on well with Zelensky and maybe the Japanese and Israeli PMs but beyond them will likely have few close allies internationally. She will have to hope Meloni's rightwing alliance wins the Italian election later this month to give her at least one firm ally at G7 summits

    Thatcher and Blair only had global recognition after they became PM. Johnson had global recognition before he became PM, and it wasn't for his statesmanship!

    I don't expect Truss to be particularly good at international statesmanship, but she isn't starting off with heavy baggage from her past.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Drones will play role in any Taiwan conflict: Turkey's Baykar
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Drones-will-play-role-in-any-Taiwan-conflict-Turkey-s-Baykar

    They are forecasting revenues over $!bn in the next year...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Today, for first time in history, we will have six former Prime Ministers still alive: John Major (79), Tony Blair (69), Gordon Brown (71), David Cameron (55), Theresa May (65) and Boris Johnson (58). What’s remarkable is how young these ex-PMs are - none is yet 80.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1567074637825150978

    This makes me realise that I have reached another one of those age realisations.
    It started when an England football player was younger than me. The next landmark was when there was an England cricket player younger than me. Then the England football/cricket captain wer younger than me, then all the whole team was younger than me.

    Gradually the politicians take over the role with MPs younger than me, then a LOTO younger than me (Milliband) but today for the first time there is a Prime Minister younger than me!
    It’s when you are older than the US President that you really need to worry
    oh …phew!

    Obama was about 16 days younger than me....
  • Foxy said:

    First names of the last four finance ministers—
    France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
    Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
    Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
    Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid


    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1566820707912368128

    Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!
    Debt as % GDP:

    Italy: 151
    France: 113
    UK: 96
    Germany: 69
    Is that the measure that was UK under 40% in 2007 - before years of Austerity (for some) to bring it down! 🫣

    Where would US be on that current list, if I have been paying attention, PBs St Bart the Pirate will comment here that 140% is actually no problem at all, only beyond that it goes squizzy.
    137%

    https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=america

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Re the polling, its simply a question of whether Lizmatron and her first moves reenergise the Tories that have moved to not voting or dont know. If so we probably get back towards something like 37 37 with 40 34 or so either side as the outliers (although that GB news lot will probably have 60 18 or something). Basically 2019 with the direct switch added in.
    However, i cant see her reenergising ALL those ex tories.
    Hostage to fortune but i see no circumstances arising that lead her to voluntarily go early.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The fact I have regularly DONE SMACK with the BLOKE WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S FUCKING BEDROOM is, I feel, sufficient evidence of my superior royal connections and any further demurral from you can be ascribed to social envy
    It is a great story and I'm sure what you can remember of it was super interesting.

    As for HMQ's health and even The Crown's creator we will have to put that into PB's common speculation bucket.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.
    Oh he's fine, but like many on PB and for no good reason whatsoever, he is quite insecure and competitive; a challenging mix.
    You are quite brilliant at unwitting self-appraisal
    I didn't go ALL CAPS though, did I, eh?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962
    edited September 2022

    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.

    So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
    I'd absolutely agree complications and errors are not the same thing, and that the Queen is just as susceptible to complications as anyone else, but I go through my own and my wife's relatives, and that care fell short is a factor in more than one death. For my father, in-hospital delays to spinal surgery greatly worsened his prognosis and directly made him more susceptible to his eventual death, whilst a grandparent-in-law suffered a bed collapse in a power cut and was not checked quickly afterwards, resulting in an leg break that went bad. But also I have numerous relatives where I cannot point to any such thing.

    And it is one of these, across many people and the people very close to them, that sheer weight of anecdotage cannot be dismissed
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    My late mother (pb.com passim) claimed to be able to predict, with some fidelity, when people would die from looking at the back of their necks.

    About four months before my father died she looked at his neck while they were watching Pointless and said, "Well, you haven't got long."

    It's a pity she's not around to tell us when Brenda will go in off the black.
    Was he trying on that new Arai you bought him in advance of your first two up ride on the Gixxer?
    I still had my CBR1000RR SP then which was a monoposto.
  • They certainly know how to push Russia’s buttons:

    Estonia described the Baltic Sea as NATO's "inland sea" after Sweden and Finland's accession

    Russia has reacted furiously and has emphasized its standing as a Baltic Sea state. More historical propaganda about the Great Northern War and triumph over Sweden will likely follow


    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1567047513462431745

    Who was it turned it into NATO’s lake?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Given the briefing so far, is it possible Truss does not announce the energy plan today?

    It eill be announced to parliament as a fiscal event, not in a press conference. The most we get today will be a guideline
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911

    RobD said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss expected to freeze household energy bills at around £2,500

    It will be the £1,971 energy price cap + the £400 universal handout, with a little on top

    Cost expected to be around £90bn - coming from general taxation, not energy bills


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1567107440436453376

    Sounds like a dogs dinner - Truss listened to the energy fat cats and did what they wanted, whilst Lib Dems and Labour listened to the voters.
    Isn't it the same as Labour's plan plus an additional £400 handout?
    ,Labour plan is for 6 months, this is 18 months and the cost will not be added to future energy bills but paid by the exchequer
    i.e. taxpayers

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    edited September 2022
    @Nigelb

    “Social climbing isn't supposed to mean actual climbing, you know ?”

    ++++

    Michael Fagan is actually a fascinating character. Properly funny and intelligent. Quite surprising

    Irish Traveller background I think

    Wiki says his dad was a “champion safe breaker” and that in 1997 fagan was done for “conspiring to supply heroin” and I for one am not particularly astonished by this allegation, to be honest

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Fagan_(intruder)
  • Betfair seem to be quite tardy on paying out. Come on already.

    It looks like the Betfair settler reads PB. Spend wisely. Only 110 days to Christmas.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,980
    edited September 2022

    The level of intervention required by the state in energy is such that it should (but probably won't be) the final nail in the coffin for its farcical privatisation. What an absolute joke it is.

    Nationalise rail, water and energy. The privateers are absolutely hopeless, require endless handholding by taxpayers, earn a fortune and do sweet eff all for their money.

    Nationalise them.

    Your answer to everything: nationalise!

    And as has been seen in the past, blanket nationalisation is just as bad (perhaps even worse) than blanket privatisation.

    So a question: when you call for 'energy' to be nationalised, what exactly are you saying? What's the program? What constitutes 'energy' ?
    First we nationalise everything. Including all the Furrin countries with natural gas that are selling it to us.

    There’s a word for that in the dictionary, so they say.
    There's a case for public ownership where a good is truly essential and is standard - ie the same regardless of supplier - and therefore affordable supply is far more important than choice.

    Energy fits the bill - but this doesn't mean nationalizing the whole chain. Eg instead of a plethora of "competing" outfits in the delivery space you could have a single public org. Simpler, more efficient, free of froth, profiteering and pointless complexity.

    Worth looking at, imo, but as a longer term thing not as a fix for this crisis.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.

    So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
    I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.

    So, in the middle of the actuarial range.

    A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
    But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.

    So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
    I'd absolutely agree complications and errors are not the same thing, and that the Queen is just as susceptible to complications as anyone else, but I go through my own and my wife's relatives, and that care fell short is a factor in more than one death. For my father, in-hospital delays to spinal surgery greatly worsened his prognosis and directly made him more susceptible to his eventual death, whilst a grandparent-in-law suffered a bed collapse in a power cut and was not checked quickly afterwards, resulting in an leg break that went bad. But also I have numerous relatives where I cannot point to any such thing.

    And it is one of these, across many people and the people very close to them, that sheer weight of anecdotage cannot be dismissed
    It is extraordinary, when you start to ask around, how many people have similar stories.

    Enough, as you say, to transcend simple anecdotage.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
    Perspective is distorting the relative heights - Truss is closer to the camera.
    Yes, you can see the effect of perspective by comparing the apparent height of each end of the sofas.
    The sofas/chairs are different, anyway, however.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Chancellor Olaf Scholz is blocking supply of 100 modern German Leopard 2A7 tanks to Ukraine, even though the manufacturing company is ready to produce them for Kyiv, writes Welt, citing sources in Ukrainian government circles. This issue was on PM Shmyhal recent visit's agenda.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1567139303075057665
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    Belated FPT:
    darkage said:

    Unpopular said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-expected-announce-rent-27917204

    "Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce rent freeze for tenants in Scotland"

    One parliamentary source said if the cost of a freeze was met by landlords the policy would cost the Government nothing.

    That'll work well with increasing mortgage rates.....
    I feel like this is going to trash the rental sector in Scotland. A lot of people, especially on the left, are very hostile to the whole sector but, speaking as someone who has rented extensively, I don't want it destroyed, I want it fit for purpose and abuses in the system stopped. I have no problem with the old woman who rented me a flat, at a decent price, which allowed me to have a place to live for years, however I was less impressed by the green-voting landlady who kicked me out to list the property on AirBnB...

    Anything that will reduce rental stock, in areas where the availability of property might not be able to keep up demand, is likely to increase scarcity and competition. This will increase prices, either legally or illegally, and we will see more 'bidding over the asking price' for rental properties. Those that don't just get sold, that is.

    I know BTLs sit at the right hand of Hitler/the Devil for some, but not everyone is in a position to buy nor wants to be tied down by property. While it doesn't make long-term financial sense to hand over your cash to pay someone else's mortgage, landlords provide a service in exchange for money, a pretty vital one imo. Squeezing the sector until the pips squeak is not likely to benefit tenants.
    These are very good insights just as true for England.
    There is something similar going on in Ireland.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/report-claims-rent-controls-have-backfired-and-worsened-crisis-1.4881856

    Buy to let and landlords have been absolutely trashed through tax and regulation, so the effect is that the flat I rented out 5 years ago for £600 per month is now being let out at £1200 and the town has a massive homelessness problem. Even at £1200 per month I doubt the landlord is making any kind of meaningful return that justifies the risks.

    All this was obvious to me as far back as 2016, I worked for a council who were reliant on private sector landlords to deal with the statutory responsibilities it had to find housing for vulnerable people, and the landlords were just selling up en masse and quitting thus creating perpetual crisis and massively escalating costs.

    ...

    It is just a disaster which the tories are asleep over, real policy making and stakeholder engagement has been replaced with lazy 'f**k business' slurs, combined with simple anti landlord leftism; and of course the universal desire to get credit for new progressive regulation, like building safety laws, etc, no matter what the cost. Reminds me a bit of Arthur Scargill going on about the coal board, 'the loss is without limit', etc.
    Not sure if it will "trash the PRS in Scotland"; it will certainly reduce it - that always happens with this type of populist measure. Remember that rental regulation is devolved. Perhaps it depends on how long the "freeze" is.

    The PRS in Scotland has been shrunk from 370k dwellings in 2016 by just under 15% to 325k (latest figure I can find).

    And "landlord wishes to sell property" is a recognised Ground for Eviction" in Scotland. Albeit discretionary for the Tribunal, whatever that means.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,155

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh god. The dear old queen looks terrible

    A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
    Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
    Of all the certainties and uncertainties in this world - aliens, the Loch Ness Monster, whether Radiohead is the best band in the world (or not), the most certain is that @Leon does not have a "well placed friend" who would be in a position to comment on this.
    What a peculiar remark

    Without revealing too much of my identity I can tell you I’m a man in his later 50s who has, over the years, been everywhere and met all sorts of people, and gathered all kinds of friends and acquaintances - from the guy who broke into the queens bedroom - no, really, Michael fagan, I know him - to billionaires in fancy castles just like the queens
    I'm sure. But you absolutely 100% don't know anyone who is close enough to HMQ who would know and who would tell you.
    You haven’t met Michael fagan have you? Let’s face it. In your narrow and sheltered life it is quite unlikely you’ve regularly sat in a flat in Seven Sisters AND DONE HEROIN WITH THE GUY WHO BROKE INTO THE QUEEN’S BEDROOM AS FEATURED IN NETFLIX SERIES THE CROWN

    At the same time I am good friends with the guy who actually writes… The Crown. And so on and so forth
    As I said, I have no doubt you know Michael Fagan and perhaps even Peter Morgan.

    But you do not know someone who is close enough to HMQ who would know about her medical condition and who would tell you about it.
    The saddest thing is that all these opportunities and such a diversity of experience both geographical and human have all washed over him and he ends up a narrow-minded and frequently unpleasant alt-right culture warrior.
    If ever there was a proof needed that travel doesn't broaden the mind we need look no further.
    Perhaps it is a bell curve. There comes a point where you have so much travel that you start to be no longer enlightened by it. A kind of diminishing return of cultural over-consumption.
    I think travel broadens the kind in proportion to the flexibility of the mind.

    In a walking trip across Nepal, I found it interesting to see the effect of meeting the locals on others in the group - and compare it to my own. The ability to see absolutely nothing, in other than the most superficial sense, is not a rare skill.
  • Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the Queen shrunk even more? She was never tall but even so.
    Perspective is distorting the relative heights - Truss is closer to the camera.
    Yes, you can see the effect of perspective by comparing the apparent height of each end of the sofas.
    The sofas/chairs are different, anyway, however.
    Compare the near end with the far end of the *same* sofa.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Dynamo said:

    Reminder to scribblers of all kinds:

    Truss's ✔️

    Truss' ❌

    No; you've got it the wrong way. Monosyllabic, so no added s. Unless ytou pronounce it Tru-uuusss.
This discussion has been closed.