A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?
At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.
The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
Yes. Shapes of bell curves is unilluminating though when you are looking at individual cases. Absent a hotline to her personal physician, every factor you can think of is in her favour: safety from accidental falls, quality of life (surgeons often decline to operate on post 90s if they think they are having a shit time anyway), longevity of mum (dad irrelevant as tobacco involved), motivation to live, mental acuity, quality of care to be expected if needed. All going her way.
Medical friends of mine said in 2011 that the NHS would have let Prince Philip croak if he had been anyone else. So there's an extra 9 years royalness gets you.
She's had her nine years above the typical, plus VAT.
I don't doubt people can buy a few years if they have a few quid. But the fact is you hit a rising wall of exponentially increased risk related to biology - which is the same for the Queen as the rest of us - and the stats worldwide suggest that utterly overwhelms the (important) marginal benefits of quality care as you get into super old age.
That is a cast iron argument against her making 110...
The exponential rise in risk of death in your late 80s and 90s... that's the brick wall of the biology we all share.
The Queen is well placed to get great care, but not uniquely so, and the brick wall is still there. Are merchant bankers massively well represented in supercentenarians? I rather doubt it - at that stage it's essentially decent genetics, sensible lifestyle earlier on, and VAST amounts of luck.
Supercentenarians = 110+, dealt with in the post you are replying to. But *in your 90s* - it is impossible to get stats, but we do know there is a 10 year spread in LE between rich and poor postcodes and there is no reason to think this doesn't reflect gains across all age groups. If you need surgery after 90 the biggest factor in your survival is probably whether the surgeon thinks it's worth the bother, given your qol. Add the fact that she is a petite, thin non smoker whose mother lived to 102. Her chances of making 100 are 25%, and given all those factors she is a distinctly value bet at 4/1 if anyone had the bad taste to make a market.
Understand the current plan is for Nadhim Zahawi to take on the equalities brief as well as running the Cabinet Office (previously it was Liz Truss in conjunction with being foreign secretary).
That YouGov poll is almost a week old. Given we are soon to get an energy price cap announcement that makes it almost entirely meaningless.
Ms Truss may not get much of a boost from that. People expect help. If she provides it then they may view that as her doing the job she is paid for rather than doing something exceptional. If the package is sub-par or badly implemented then she will be off to a bad start.
Yep. People dont do gratitude when they expect it.
Yield on UK 10-year gilts (sovereign bonds) rise to over 3% and sterling starts slipping again as leaks indicate Truss plans £100bn intervention in energy markets, requiring shed load more borrowing. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1567156929595588608
Liz may not make her speech if it’s raining when she arrives at Downing Street, apparently. She’ll wait til it clears up.
Come on Liz, if you want to give a rallying cry for Brits to show grit and determination through the winter then you shouldn’t let a bit of rain stop you!
BBC saying she will deliver it from inside no 10 at 4.40pm if it is raining
A British PM who only comes out when it is sunny; at least we won’t be seeing so much of her, then.
Zahawi is shaping up to be one of the key winners.
That's a shame
Zahawi was an enormous disappointment to me at education. He floundered, like all the others with the possible exception of Justine Greening.
But perhaps, just perhaps, he had noticed what happened to people who buggered about with those vindictive and rather useless tossers at the DfE and decided to play it cool for career reasons.
It’s really quite a famous painting. I’m a little surprised the pb arts brains trust can’t nail it
It’s very relevant to the debate we’re having about The Size of The Queen
It’s a massacio but relies a huge amount on Brunelleschi. Possibly a joint effort we were taught.
Exactly. Brunelleschi and Alberti paved the way.
This is a classic example, very sorry to say but there it is, of @Leon's insecurity and competitiveness.
Some of us (in the mists of time) studied all this and, as this episode has demonstrated, have forgotten more than @Leon knows but he finds it amusing to hold a PB quiz to try to show his intelligence.
Sorry @Leon - don't mean this to be mean but really, you don't have to set PB quizzes on renaissance painting for us to love you.
There is pretty much no difference between Labour’s and Truss’s energy policy, save that Labour wanted a windfall tax for optics, and are rather more interested in finding conservation measures.
Both effectively want to put it on the never-never, which btw, is the right thing to do.
Liz Truss’s proposed energy price freeze for UK households risks running out of control, topping the £197 billion estimated in leaked government documents https://trib.al/SGBuzZs
Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.
And nor was Cameron, who wasn't "brought down" at all...
He brought himself down through hubris, which is the more common route than the clown bringing himself down through dishonesty.
Well, he quit when under no pressure at all.
But he had no choice, really. Look at how being tainted as a remainer played out for Mrs M. The remarkable thing is how Truss has been so keenly welcomed by the head banging brigade.
Sure he did. There was no pressure on him at all to quit and no expectation that he would.
He was probably the person in the best position to unite the EEA Leavers with the accepting Remainers and come up with a form of Brexit that would have satisfied all but the few headbangers on each side who could and should have been marginalised.
The Queen needs to keep going for another one year and nine months to become the longest serving monarch of a sovereign state in history.
Also she will be able to see off another PM if she makes it that long.
Hopefully she'll last long enough to see Johnson out of Parliament.
If the only former PM to speak in parliament is Theresa May, that would be bearable.
(Incidentally, six former PMs is unprecedented, but am I also right in thinking 2013 onward is the first time ever no former PM has been a member of the Lords?)
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
Liz Truss’s proposed energy price freeze for UK households risks running out of control, topping the £197 billion estimated in leaked government documents https://trib.al/SGBuzZs
The fact it suggests we could avoid recession, inflation would be at peak now and poss back to 2% within a year then its worth it. Or we could let a few hundred thousand freeze to death or starve
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?
At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.
The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
Yes. Shapes of bell curves is unilluminating though when you are looking at individual cases. Absent a hotline to her personal physician, every factor you can think of is in her favour: safety from accidental falls, quality of life (surgeons often decline to operate on post 90s if they think they are having a shit time anyway), longevity of mum (dad irrelevant as tobacco involved), motivation to live, mental acuity, quality of care to be expected if needed. All going her way.
Medical friends of mine said in 2011 that the NHS would have let Prince Philip croak if he had been anyone else. So there's an extra 9 years royalness gets you.
She's had her nine years above the typical, plus VAT.
I don't doubt people can buy a few years if they have a few quid. But the fact is you hit a rising wall of exponentially increased risk related to biology - which is the same for the Queen as the rest of us - and the stats worldwide suggest that utterly overwhelms the (important) marginal benefits of quality care as you get into super old age.
That is a cast iron argument against her making 110...
The exponential rise in risk of death in your late 80s and 90s... that's the brick wall of the biology we all share.
The Queen is well placed to get great care, but not uniquely so, and the brick wall is still there. Are merchant bankers massively well represented in supercentenarians? I rather doubt it - at that stage it's essentially decent genetics, sensible lifestyle earlier on, and VAST amounts of luck.
Supercentenarians = 110+, dealt with in the post you are replying to. But *in your 90s* - it is impossible to get stats, but we do know there is a 10 year spread in LE between rich and poor postcodes and there is no reason to think this doesn't reflect gains across all age groups. If you need surgery after 90 the biggest factor in your survival is probably whether the surgeon thinks it's worth the bother, given your qol. Add the fact that she is a petite, thin non smoker whose mother lived to 102. Her chances of making 100 are 25%, and given all those factors she is a distinctly value bet at 4/1 if anyone had the bad taste to make a market.
She might live that long; could she reign that long? Even now she is having to do less, and sure, it's not necessary for the monarch to be out and about, but an aging monarch presiding over increasingly zombified parliaments is not great optics.
Liz Truss’s proposed energy price freeze for UK households risks running out of control, topping the £197 billion estimated in leaked government documents https://trib.al/SGBuzZs
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?
At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.
The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
Yes. Shapes of bell curves is unilluminating though when you are looking at individual cases. Absent a hotline to her personal physician, every factor you can think of is in her favour: safety from accidental falls, quality of life (surgeons often decline to operate on post 90s if they think they are having a shit time anyway), longevity of mum (dad irrelevant as tobacco involved), motivation to live, mental acuity, quality of care to be expected if needed. All going her way.
Medical friends of mine said in 2011 that the NHS would have let Prince Philip croak if he had been anyone else. So there's an extra 9 years royalness gets you.
She's had her nine years above the typical, plus VAT.
I don't doubt people can buy a few years if they have a few quid. But the fact is you hit a rising wall of exponentially increased risk related to biology - which is the same for the Queen as the rest of us - and the stats worldwide suggest that utterly overwhelms the (important) marginal benefits of quality care as you get into super old age.
That is a cast iron argument against her making 110...
The exponential rise in risk of death in your late 80s and 90s... that's the brick wall of the biology we all share.
The Queen is well placed to get great care, but not uniquely so, and the brick wall is still there. Are merchant bankers massively well represented in supercentenarians? I rather doubt it - at that stage it's essentially decent genetics, sensible lifestyle earlier on, and VAST amounts of luck.
Supercentenarians = 110+, dealt with in the post you are replying to. But *in your 90s* - it is impossible to get stats, but we do know there is a 10 year spread in LE between rich and poor postcodes and there is no reason to think this doesn't reflect gains across all age groups. If you need surgery after 90 the biggest factor in your survival is probably whether the surgeon thinks it's worth the bother, given your qol. Add the fact that she is a petite, thin non smoker whose mother lived to 102. Her chances of making 100 are 25%, and given all those factors she is a distinctly value bet at 4/1 if anyone had the bad taste to make a market.
She might live that long; could she reign that long? Even now she is having to do less, and sure, it's not necessary for the monarch to be out and about, but an aging monarch presiding over increasingly zombified parliaments is not great optics.
We are almost there anyway, with Charley boy giving the Queen's Speech in May. Retire her altogether, sod's law dictates that she dies 3 months afterwards and the folk belief is she had nothing left to live for poor old dear, and Charley's reign proper is tainted with the idea that he killed her off by edging her out.
It is quite something to watch Truss becoming PM. In all honesty, you can only wish her the best of luck. I think the thing that she has got going for her, is that she is a pragmatic survivor and has got some stuff done, ie when she made a load of mediocre trade deals at quite a fast rate. She has also managed to suppress her apparent 'free market/low tax/pro privatisation' beliefs to a sufficient degree to serve in Boris Johnsons government as it kept doing the opposite. She played the leadership election campaign correctly, just telling the electorate what they wanted to hear. The reality is that now she can completely ignore them if she wants. As the header says, it is the MP's she needs to think about.
Given her record of mediocrity, her flexible beliefs, no firm opinions, she reminds me of another PM.
The Queen needs to keep going for another one year and nine months to become the longest serving monarch of a sovereign state in history.
Also she will be able to see off another PM if she makes it that long.
Possibly.
I am very glad to see the end of Johnson. I couldn’t bear the name thought of him acting as father of the nation in the event of HM’s death.
I am implacably opposed to Liz Truss, but she simply doesn’t provoke the same feelings of anger, shame, frustration, and even nausea.
Same here. Having Boris Johnson as my PM has been a genuinely unpleasant experience on a personal level. I don't feel that way about Liz Truss. I see her as a disaster in the making but I expect her to try her best and be on at least nodding terms with honesty and public service.
Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.
Indeed - the party weren't unified but were broadly content.
But Noah also thought the objections to the Rwanda scheme was simply about ooh nasty Africa, and never mind issues of law or effectiveness.
I imagine he and his writers dont spend much research time on international issues- the audience wont care. We are the same.
I find Trevor Noah achingly unfunny. I’ve no how idea how he go that job, though I presume the ratings hold up.
The qualitative decline from Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert in their prime to Trevor Noah is indeed painful
I’ll say one thing for that Lycett guy in the BBC kerfuffle. He may be Woke and Left but he’s actually quite funny. Good timing. Not a genius but you take what you can these days
Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.
And nor was Cameron, who wasn't "brought down" at all...
He brought himself down through hubris, which is the more common route than the clown bringing himself down through dishonesty.
Well, he quit when under no pressure at all.
But he had no choice, really. Look at how being tainted as a remainer played out for Mrs M. The remarkable thing is how Truss has been so keenly welcomed by the head banging brigade.
Sure he did. There was no pressure on him at all to quit and no expectation that he would.
He was probably the person in the best position to unite the EEA Leavers with the accepting Remainers and come up with a form of Brexit that would have satisfied all but the few headbangers on each side who could and should have been marginalised.
I agree that would have been the sensible path, but not that he could have done it. Nixon was the one who went to China.
A well placed friend told me to expect London Bridge soon, just the other day
Hardly the rashest of predictions for an elderly 96 year old lady, recently bereaved, and clearly in poor health. And also not the first such prediction. @Foxy seems likely to be on the money - spinal issues hence back ache leading to reduced mobility.
The actuarial risk of death within the next year is over 25% at age 96, almost 27% at age 97, and over 28% at 98.
So, as you say, hardly a big call. Indeed, whilst it's possible the Queen could see one more of these handovers, it's more likely than not that Liz is Liz's last PM.
I'd class the Queen as going from good health (for her age) to moderate health over the last year. Nothing to indicate she is in 'poor' health.
So, in the middle of the actuarial range.
A big factor is that, once an elderly person starts going into hospital more frequently with more complex requirements, the non zero chance of medical or care errors at each visit multiply, and life shortening mistakes become more likely (I'd guess 1 in 3 deaths have such factors at play). You'd suspect the Queen is far less likely than most to suffer such a fate, so her actuarial chances are better than average.
But the reason elderly people die as a result of complications isn't primarily because care is shoddy or errors slip in as people get older. They are simply more vulnerable.
So, whilst I agree she'll get high quality care, the risk of a 90-something year old dying in surgery with no errors being made and the best doctors money can buy is high.
They also die as a result of complications because (HMQ aside) the NHS quite often sees old people as no real priority. If they die no one will be coming after the hospital with a lawsuit. Old people die and hence the NHS is quite good at not providing the right care for them.
Do you think other healthcare systems around the world arrive at very different outcomes in terms of actuarial risk of death at that stage?
At 70, your risk of dying in the next year is little more than 1%. At 80, it's about 4%. At 90, it's getting on for 15%. At 100, it's over 40%.
The exponential rise is true everywhere and it really isn't credible that it is driven by standard of care and attitudes to the elderly in a particular place. Your body just packs up at that stage and there is little anyone can do but make you more comfortable. A high standard of care can shave a bit off your risk, but it's at the margins and the exponential nature of the rise has to be driven by nature almost entirely.
Yes. Shapes of bell curves is unilluminating though when you are looking at individual cases. Absent a hotline to her personal physician, every factor you can think of is in her favour: safety from accidental falls, quality of life (surgeons often decline to operate on post 90s if they think they are having a shit time anyway), longevity of mum (dad irrelevant as tobacco involved), motivation to live, mental acuity, quality of care to be expected if needed. All going her way.
Medical friends of mine said in 2011 that the NHS would have let Prince Philip croak if he had been anyone else. So there's an extra 9 years royalness gets you.
She's had her nine years above the typical, plus VAT.
I don't doubt people can buy a few years if they have a few quid. But the fact is you hit a rising wall of exponentially increased risk related to biology - which is the same for the Queen as the rest of us - and the stats worldwide suggest that utterly overwhelms the (important) marginal benefits of quality care as you get into super old age.
That is a cast iron argument against her making 110...
The exponential rise in risk of death in your late 80s and 90s... that's the brick wall of the biology we all share.
The Queen is well placed to get great care, but not uniquely so, and the brick wall is still there. Are merchant bankers massively well represented in supercentenarians? I rather doubt it - at that stage it's essentially decent genetics, sensible lifestyle earlier on, and VAST amounts of luck.
Supercentenarians = 110+, dealt with in the post you are replying to. But *in your 90s* - it is impossible to get stats, but we do know there is a 10 year spread in LE between rich and poor postcodes and there is no reason to think this doesn't reflect gains across all age groups. If you need surgery after 90 the biggest factor in your survival is probably whether the surgeon thinks it's worth the bother, given your qol. Add the fact that she is a petite, thin non smoker whose mother lived to 102. Her chances of making 100 are 25%, and given all those factors she is a distinctly value bet at 4/1 if anyone had the bad taste to make a market.
She might live that long; could she reign that long? Even now she is having to do less, and sure, it's not necessary for the monarch to be out and about, but an aging monarch presiding over increasingly zombified parliaments is not great optics.
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
Thats BS. Boris wasn't brought down by Brexit at all.
Indeed - the party weren't unified but were broadly content.
But Noah also thought the objections to the Rwanda scheme was simply about ooh nasty Africa, and never mind issues of law or effectiveness.
I imagine he and his writers dont spend much research time on international issues- the audience wont care. We are the same.
I find Trevor Noah achingly unfunny. I’ve no how idea how he go that job, though I presume the ratings hold up.
The qualitative decline from Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert in the prime to Noah is indeed painful
I’ll say one thing for that Lycett guy in the BBC kerfuffle. He may be Woke and Left but he’s actually quite funny. Good timing. Not a genius but you take what you can these days
I find John Oliver, despite his obsessions with race and Trump, and on UK matters very one note, utterly hilarious. Had he not got his own show first he'd presumably have gotten the daily show gig.
I found Noah ok, but something in the writing and references made it seem more a script from others than his own personality. Maybe hes stamped his own style on it by now.
First names of the last four finance ministers— France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid
Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!
Debt as % GDP:
Italy: 151 France: 113 UK: 96 Germany: 69
Is that the measure that was UK under 40% in 2007 - before years of Austerity (for some) to bring it down! 🫣
Where would US be on that current list, if I have been paying attention, PBs St Bart the Pirate will comment here that 140% is actually no problem at all, only beyond that it goes squizzy.
So is St Bart the pirate actually right on this one, this is a pointless measure to use for economic health and strength? The Tory austerity years, the lasting impact of them in income divides, was not actually necessary?
????????
I have NEVER said that. In fact I've always said the exact opposite.
There is no specific debt to GDP number that "matters" but what matters far more is an overall look at the deficit, whether debt to GDP is going up or down, and where you are in the economic cycle.
You only know where you were in the "economic cycle" since it takes shape in retrospect.
Not true, a recession is a matter of record determined at the time, not in hindsight. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth. On average a recession occurs about once every eight to twelve years or so.
You can and do know how many years you are since the last recession as a matter of fact at the time. So eg in 2006/07 we were 15/16 years from the last recession and overdue a new one which then occurred the following year.
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 4h In case anyone was getting worried, UK not having any problems at all borrowing money in capital markets right now. Just raised £3.5bn of 3yr gilts at 3.2%. Cover ratio (this is important - it’s how many bids there were for each bond) pretty healthy at 2.6 times.
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
The Queen needs to keep going for another one year and nine months to become the longest serving monarch of a sovereign state in history.
Just in time for Johnson's resurrection. I thought we were saved from Peppa Pig, the eulogy.
1 year and 9 months brings us ominously close to the likely date of the next GE.
Why do I have a horrible feeling London Bridge will fall down the 6 weeks beforehand or similar and the PM rides a wave of national mourning to another 5 years?
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 4h In case anyone was getting worried, UK not having any problems at all borrowing money in capital markets right now. Just raised £3.5bn of 3yr gilts at 3.2%. Cover ratio (this is important - it’s how many bids there were for each bond) pretty healthy at 2.6 times.
Giantlizgate latest: BBC have cropped her at the knees and lost HMQ feet
I thought I should redo the math. My last effort was circular because it worked off HMQ published height of 5'3" and the contention was that she had shrunk. Even if she is now 4'6" Liz is still about 6'6", though.
Liz Truss’s proposed energy price freeze for UK households risks running out of control, topping the £197 billion estimated in leaked government documents https://trib.al/SGBuzZs
Not a surprise, Labour just wanted to shield from October and January rises, it was properly costed to shield from full year bills on same system, to be £120bn. When in opposition you can get away with not being straightforward about your plans like Labour were, you can’t in government.
Now government have the “it’s going to be a lot more expensive than promised” problem, leading in due course to both you’ve mismanaged it and you lied to us.
First names of the last four finance ministers— France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid
Whose finances are in best shape is perhaps the question to ask!
Debt as % GDP:
Italy: 151 France: 113 UK: 96 Germany: 69
Is that the measure that was UK under 40% in 2007 - before years of Austerity (for some) to bring it down! 🫣
Where would US be on that current list, if I have been paying attention, PBs St Bart the Pirate will comment here that 140% is actually no problem at all, only beyond that it goes squizzy.
Austerity was not about bringing down the debt, it was about bringing down the deficit. 🤦♂️
It is the deficit that matters much, much more than debt since debt figure can and will rapidly change if deficit isn't controlled.
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 4h In case anyone was getting worried, UK not having any problems at all borrowing money in capital markets right now. Just raised £3.5bn of 3yr gilts at 3.2%. Cover ratio (this is important - it’s how many bids there were for each bond) pretty healthy at 2.6 times.
Liz Truss’s proposed energy price freeze for UK households risks running out of control, topping the £197 billion estimated in leaked government documents https://trib.al/SGBuzZs
Not a surprise, Labour just wanted to shield from October and January rises, it was properly costed to shield from full year bills on same system, to be £120bn. When in opposition you can get away with not being straightforward about your plans like Labour were, you can’t in government.
Now government have the “it’s going to be a lot more expensive than promised” problem, leading in due course to both you’ve mismanaged it and you lied to us.
The one thing these massive bills (for energy) highlight is that the best approach is to get the Ukraine everything they need to win this war asap...
Liz Truss’ Cabinet is not expected to include any white men in the great offices of state - with Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, Suella Braverman as Home Secretary and James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
What is the bizarre connection between this greasy spoon in west london and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine
If you know the backstory you’ll get it straight away. If you don’t you will need clues
Nicht der google!
Ok, first guess, anything to do with polonium?
Nope. Much more bizarre than that
Did Zelensky act in something filmed there?
That’s a clever guess. But no
But it is something strange like that. Except much stranger
I am bored so I cheated. Still don't see the link but what amazes is me is that google can accurately identify the place and isn't fooled by changes of colour and writing in the awning. Just as impressive to me as the dall e stuff.
What is the bizarre connection between this greasy spoon in west london and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine
If you know the backstory you’ll get it straight away. If you don’t you will need clues
Nicht der google!
Ok, first guess, anything to do with polonium?
Nope. Much more bizarre than that
Did Zelensky act in something filmed there?
That’s a clever guess. But no
But it is something strange like that. Except much stranger
I am bored so I cheated. Still don't see the link but what amazes is me is that google can accurately identify the place and isn't fooled by changes of colour and writing in the awning. Just as impressive to me as the dall e stuff.
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 4h In case anyone was getting worried, UK not having any problems at all borrowing money in capital markets right now. Just raised £3.5bn of 3yr gilts at 3.2%. Cover ratio (this is important - it’s how many bids there were for each bond) pretty healthy at 2.6 times.
What is the bizarre connection between this greasy spoon in west london and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine
If you know the backstory you’ll get it straight away. If you don’t you will need clues
Nicht der google!
Ok, first guess, anything to do with polonium?
Nope. Much more bizarre than that
Did Zelensky act in something filmed there?
That’s a clever guess. But no
But it is something strange like that. Except much stranger
I am bored so I cheated. Still don't see the link but what amazes is me is that google can accurately identify the place and isn't fooled by changes of colour and writing in the awning. Just as impressive to me as the dall e stuff.
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 4h In case anyone was getting worried, UK not having any problems at all borrowing money in capital markets right now. Just raised £3.5bn of 3yr gilts at 3.2%. Cover ratio (this is important - it’s how many bids there were for each bond) pretty healthy at 2.6 times.
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 4h In case anyone was getting worried, UK not having any problems at all borrowing money in capital markets right now. Just raised £3.5bn of 3yr gilts at 3.2%. Cover ratio (this is important - it’s how many bids there were for each bond) pretty healthy at 2.6 times.
That's good news tbh
It is indeed. @MaxPB has repeatedly spoken about the threat of the UK losing the faith of the markets and it's a risk but thankfully a risk that there doesn't seem to be evidence is happening, yet.
Liz Truss is still Foreign Secretary. Wikipedia says Home Secretary and Chancellor are vacant although I'm not sure that technically they are.
According to tradition, all members of a cabinet resign on a change of government. That means the incoming PM gets to set their own team without baggage.
It's a technicality, but I suspect Wiki is right on this.
Comments
Braverman and Cleverly are ballast.
But perhaps, just perhaps, he had noticed what happened to people who buggered about with those vindictive and rather useless tossers at the DfE and decided to play it cool for career reasons.
That's what we're left hoping for, anyway.
Both effectively want to put it on the never-never, which btw, is the right thing to do.
https://order-order.com/2022/09/06/liz-truss-rumoured-to-be-giving-browns-top-civil-servant-control-over-many-spads https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1567157908256837636/photo/1
Some consternation about this for obvious reasons. No official confirmation has been given, more obfuscation.
I’m glad Simon Case seems to be on his way out.
I was appalled to think O'Donnell might be making a comeback, so am relieved he's not.
My own limited days of bohemia (nothing compared with Leon’s) included a fair amount of time there.
Sadly all over now, what with wife and kids. Sigh.
He was probably the person in the best position to unite the EEA Leavers with the accepting Remainers and come up with a form of Brexit that would have satisfied all but the few headbangers on each side who could and should have been marginalised.
I am very glad to see the end of Johnson.
I couldn’t bear the name thought of him acting as father of the nation in the event of HM’s death.
I am implacably opposed to Liz Truss, but she simply doesn’t provoke the same feelings of anger, shame, frustration, and even nausea.
If the only former PM to speak in parliament is Theresa May, that would be bearable.
(Incidentally, six former PMs is unprecedented, but am I also right in thinking 2013 onward is the first time ever no former PM has been a member of the Lords?)
But Noah also thought the objections to the Rwanda scheme was simply about ooh nasty Africa, and never mind issues of law or effectiveness.
I imagine he and his writers dont spend much research time on international issues- the audience wont care. We are the same.
But not everyone is happy about this. “There are a lot of talented men in the 2019 intake - white straight males that never get a sniff at anything,” one MP tells me.
https://twitter.com/camillahmturner/status/1567161207651504129
She's not even in the door yet, and it sounds like her honeymoon is over...
Or we could let a few hundred thousand freeze to death or starve
I’ve no how idea how he go that job, though I presume the ratings hold up.
What is the bizarre connection between this greasy spoon in west london and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine
If you know the backstory you’ll get it straight away. If you don’t you will need clues
Nicht der google!
It’s like that Stanley Spencer painting about corpses rising from their graves in Cookham.
Duncan Smith says he turned down offer of cabinet post from Truss after considering whether he would 'add value' -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/sep/06/liz-truss-pm-boris-johnson-queen-cabinet-reshuffle-rishi-sunak-tories-?page=with:block-63173bf48f089d9d4e3f0369#block-63173bf48f089d9d4e3f0369
Having said that, IDS “is greater than” Rees-Mogg.
Edited to avoid vanilla tag clusterfuck.
Ah yes ... Jim Hacker.
The qualitative decline from Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert in their prime to Trevor Noah is indeed painful
I’ll say one thing for that Lycett guy in the BBC kerfuffle. He may be Woke and Left but he’s actually quite funny. Good timing. Not a genius but you take what you can these days
Do you happen to remember the Worm Lady?
I was going to bring her up but I thought I’d spare PB.
I think she’s currently tipped as incoming Deputy PM.
I found Noah ok, but something in the writing and references made it seem more a script from others than his own personality. Maybe hes stamped his own style on it by now.
You can and do know how many years you are since the last recession as a matter of fact at the time. So eg in 2006/07 we were 15/16 years from the last recession and overdue a new one which then occurred the following year.
@EdConwaySky
·
4h
In case anyone was getting worried, UK not having any problems at all borrowing money in capital markets right now.
Just raised £3.5bn of 3yr gilts at 3.2%.
Cover ratio (this is important - it’s how many bids there were for each bond) pretty healthy at 2.6 times.
Beating France in things like this brings us no honour.
I’m not looking forward to the North Korean level of flag shagging and mewling when Brenda passes on.
The sycophancy will embarrass the Kim family.
https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-prime-minister-live-updates-picks-cabinet-boris-johnson-12593360
John Blackwood, Chief Executive of the Scottish Association of Landlords (SAL), responds to the rent freeze announcement
" I have been inundated by landlords saying they will be removing their vacant properties from the rental market, and I don’t blame them.”
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1567147873434755072
Hefty clue: car bombs
Why do I have a horrible feeling London Bridge will fall down the 6 weeks beforehand or similar and the PM rides a wave of national mourning to another 5 years?
Bond yields surge across Europe on Fed jitters
I thought I should redo the math. My last effort was circular because it worked off HMQ published height of 5'3" and the contention was that she had shrunk. Even if she is now 4'6" Liz is still about 6'6", though.
Sometimes I think I have too little to do.
But it is something strange like that. Except much stranger
I'm shocked, shocked, I tell you.
Are the Assad family involved?
Now government have the “it’s going to be a lot more expensive than promised” problem, leading in due course to both you’ve mismanaged it and you lied to us.
It is the deficit that matters much, much more than debt since debt figure can and will rapidly change if deficit isn't controlled.
Schedule a holiday on the announcement, even for fans it will be too much.
Think kilts and sporrans
Another clue: Osiris
"Selling" is a valid reason for eviction.
The country needs to be on alert for that though.
It's a technicality, but I suspect Wiki is right on this.