How will the Tory betting look after tonight’s TV debate? – politicalbetting.com
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Next editor of the standard will be a certain B Johnson - you heard it here first.RochdalePioneers said:
But he has earned a gazillion pounds in the private sector.MaxPB said:Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.
Remember who is the owner….1 -
Can someone - anyone - just say "the NHS is an OK health service but let's stop wanking on about it like it is Jesus, you craven craven idiots"5
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This is the line to run on really. Bet a lot of elderly Tory members are checking their pacemakers and thinking "please don't blow now...".IanB2 said:
Not when the cancer referral targets are being missed by miles and people phoning 999 for an ambulance due to a heart attack are waiting five hours for it to arrive.Gallowgate said:Kemi is alright. The tooth story very relatable.
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Pretty sure Truss's run has ended tonight.
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Guardian headline - "Scum Tory government minister hates the NHS and uses private healthcare" or something along those lines. Though, undoubtedly she has the money. Also iirc when she arrived in the UK she worked in a McDonald's to pay her own way.Leon said:
But, a clear lieGallowgate said:Kemi is alright. The tooth story very relatable.
I broke my tooth 10 months ago. Had to go private. £300 for a 20 minute procedure, done next day
Kemi B can't afford that?0 -
The winner of tonight's debate: The Labour Party.3
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Kemi explains her teeth!
I don’t think repeatedly saying she’s “terrified” of things makes her look reliable.
Kemi’s vague efficiency savings not a great answer on the NHS. Mordaunt always has a specific policy idea, some of which are sensible, but lots of small policy ideas doesn’t make you come across well for a big picture job.
Sunak does the Blair thing of always remembering to thank the questioner. It seems simple, but it works.0 -
So you are happy to lose the election - and then your hold over taxation?HYUFD said:
Tory members have won 4 general elections in a row, they want tax cuts now not power for the sake of it, especially now Starmer has replaced Corbynpigeon said:
How Tory members vote will depend on how much they want to win the next election.HYUFD said:
Tory members want tax cuts, they are the deciding electorate he so far has failed to reachnico679 said:Sunak is I’m afraid to say the only candidate that looks like they could cope with the PM job . On taxes he’s coming across very well and Truss looks clueless .
If they are determined to win they'll pick a grown up who doesn't give them sweeties straight away.
If they no longer care about winning they'll pick a different grown up who has a joined up plan to pay for tax cuts by slashing the size of the state in the Thatcherite manner. Which will no longer work as the debate has moved on since 1987, and besides there aren't millions of council houses left with which to bribe people.
If they want to take the cakeist approach then they'll pick another charlatan who promises them sweeties now, to be paid for by magic beans or something, and keep their fingers crossed that the wider electorate are too dense to see through the conceit.
Daft sod. But not as daft as whomever flagged his post.1 -
Yes, a total and obvious lie. Good for her!OnboardG1 said:
I pay £20 a month for dental insurance on an SSO salary. She has dental insurance, the story is pish.Leon said:
But, a clear lieGallowgate said:Kemi is alright. The tooth story very relatable.
I broke my tooth 10 months ago. Had to go private. £300 for a 20 minute procedure, done next day
Kemi B can't afford that?0 -
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Call me irrational, but I haven't been able to stand Truss since the photo(s) of her smirking in a tank were published. Liz baby, we Homo Sapiens use tanks for killing each other. YOU DON'T LOOK CUTE IN ONE.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/30/truss-urges-nato-allies-to-block-russias-nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline0 -
Truss is a politician out of time. Decent. Honest. Positive. Engaged with people.
Completely wrong for today's modern Tory party.-1 -
No, I'm right and you're reading too much into those statements. They were essentially cliches, not detailed policies. What happened was that when in government they created systems and then read them back into their promises, rather niftily in both cases. If you think that was a coherent 'vision' then I fear you have a rather rosy tinted view of both of them.Gardenwalker said:
That’s nonsense.ydoethur said:
Blair had vision? What was it? I remember an enormous number of cliches - 'Britain forward not back, education, education, education, tough on crime tough on the causes of crime' - but I couldn't tell you what they meant.Gardenwalker said:
Blair actually had vision.ydoethur said:Sunak is like Blair.
But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.
Can someone please tell me what Rishi’s vision is?
I wonder what he makes of this graph.
Just as Thatcher's 'vision' was very often her making stuff up as she needed to, with varying degrees of success.
What they both were - for good or for ill - was decisive, and they had a willingness to listen to others if they knew their stuff and decide accordingly.
Does Sunak have that? If I'm honest I don't know. But what I can say is that apart possibly from Tugendhat and even more tenuously Badenoch the others are showing they don't have it.
There was a clear Blairism “Giddens/third way-ism/reducing child poverty/education reform/devolution” etc, just as there was clear Thatcherism “Hayek/monetarism/privatisation/labour deregulation/home owning democracy”
PMs do make it up as they go along, or as Lord Blake put it 'problems come up and are solved.'
I rather think you are letting your dislike for Sunak cause you to be negative in every way, including overselling some of the points where he might actually be strong.
Tugendhat absolutely cringeworthy there on the NHS.0 -
Absolutely!Leon said:Can someone - anyone - just say "the NHS is an OK health service but let's stop wanking on about it like it is Jesus, you craven craven idiots"
And some of it is crap, and inefficient
And some of the staff are crap, and incompetent
And some are overpaid, and just throwing endless money at it doesn’t change these things
I suspect I wouldn’t win a General Election with that pitch…
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Truss supports Net Zero. Frothers in shambles.0
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Go on Tories, choose Truss or Mordaunt!1
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People don't recognize utterly hollow smarm when they see it. Sunak is Blair, and you know what was most contemptible about Blair? Not Iraq in general but specifically his bragging that he agreed to it with the words "I'm in." Because that would sound so fucking cool in the biopic.ydoethur said:
Blair had vision? What was it? I remember an enormous number of cliches - 'Britain forward not back, education, education, education, tough on crime tough on the causes of crime' - but I couldn't tell you what they meant.Gardenwalker said:
Blair actually had vision.ydoethur said:Sunak is like Blair.
But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.
Can someone please tell me what Rishi’s vision is?
I wonder what he makes of this graph.
Just as Thatcher's 'vision' was very often her making stuff up as she needed to, with varying degrees of success.
What they both were - for good or for ill - was decisive, and they had a willingness to listen to others if they knew their stuff and decide accordingly.
Does Sunak have that? If I'm honest I don't know. But what I can say is that apart possibly from Tugendhat and even more tenuously Badenoch the others are showing they don't have it.
Someone change truss's Duracells. She's done. Lucky to be in the next cabinet0 -
Don't think PM4MP needed a home run. But she at least needed to get to second base.ydoethur said:
Probably inevitable because she had nothing to gain and a huge amount to lose. She was popular by being an unknown quantity that people could project their hopes onto. Inevitable that if she doesn't smash it out of the park that bubble would pop.MikeSmithson said:Biggest loser given her position in the betting is Penny.
Perhaps the Fall of Truss is so dramatic it overshadows Mordaunt's under-performance?
Will be VERY interesting to see how the candidates AND their handlers react and adapt to tonight's realities over the next 46 hours leading up to Sunday's shindig.0 -
Tugs is right. He talks about the army too much.0
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Penny has drifted a touch to 2.18 from 2.08.
I don't think she's done badly enough tonight to lose many votes - but she needs to do more in future debates.0 -
Oh, candide.Anabobazina said:Easy win for Sunak - because he is the only one who sounds at all realistic. Not saying he’ll win (I suspect he won’t) but at least he is willing to avoid Panglossianism.
I think a problem is, as the weeks tick by, they will forget just how frustrated they were with Boris, remember him winning, delivering with boosterism. If Sunak replaces him, there will be Boris fans, ministers in his cabinet, government, parliamentary party, party and voters out there, who will just hate him for unfairly doing Boris in and replacing him. With personality clashes, grudges, the whole Boris and his cheerleaders waiting for things to be no better without him, that in itself could sink the Conservatives election chances.1 -
Are Alan Alda and Ellen Burstyn standing too?Stuartinromford said:
Same time, same place, next year?SouthamObserver said:This is just wonderful. Sunak is clearly the best of them, but that really doesn’t say much - and if he wins the ERG and the Johnson faithful will go nuclear. Maybe they should start the whole contest again!
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Deleted. I laid 2 eggs.0
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Sunak is going to win, I now guess.
But as @leon says - hang on in there until Sunday night as few people are going to be watching on a warm Friday night.
The problem is, I just can’t see Penny improving sufficiently in two days to stop Rishi.
He looks like the serious choice.0 -
Penny ending better
I suspect Kemi has Covid, with all that coughing, BTW0 -
She can.Leon said:I find it extremely hard to believe Kemi Badenoch, a Nigerian posho, can't afford £300 to get a chipped tooth fixed, privately
But many people resent having to pay for something they've been promised should be 'free'.0 -
How does this channel justify a 2 hour advert for the Labour Party?
Grr.7 -
Its a giant machine and that means getting it to deliver what people need is very hard. But it is also a crippled machine, spaffing vast sums of public money into internal competition and marketisation. We could spend the money better...ThePoliticalParty said:
Absolutely!Leon said:Can someone - anyone - just say "the NHS is an OK health service but let's stop wanking on about it like it is Jesus, you craven craven idiots"
And some of it is crap, and inefficient
And some of the staff are crap, and incompetent
And some are overpaid, and just throwing endless money at it doesn’t change these things
I suspect I wouldn’t win a General Election with that pitch…1 -
Keir Starmer can't believe his luck.
People attacking their own Government's legacy and saying they want to continue those policies.
Change this election is not.2 -
It's not OK - it's too often poor and terrible in some ways. In a study I saw recently it came tenth out of eleven health systems surveyed. And in the treatment of many cancers, for instance, it is a disgrace.Leon said:Can someone - anyone - just say "the NHS is an OK health service but let's stop wanking on about it like it is Jesus, you craven craven idiots"
Still, it seems well enough supplied with diversity officers paid three or more times as much as nurses, so at least those with tumours are treated by people of a variety of backgrounds, which is of course what they are worried about.0 -
God, Boris was better than this bunch
*help*
On the other hand, Starmer is worse than several of them
*yay*0 -
Oh I do. I saw it in Blair.IshmaelZ said:
People don't recognize utterly hollow smarm when they see it. Sunak is Blair, and you know what was most contemptible about Blair? Not Iraq in general but specifically his bragging that he agreed to it with the words "I'm in." Because that would sound so fucking cool in the biopic.ydoethur said:
Blair had vision? What was it? I remember an enormous number of cliches - 'Britain forward not back, education, education, education, tough on crime tough on the causes of crime' - but I couldn't tell you what they meant.Gardenwalker said:
Blair actually had vision.ydoethur said:Sunak is like Blair.
But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.
Can someone please tell me what Rishi’s vision is?
I wonder what he makes of this graph.
Just as Thatcher's 'vision' was very often her making stuff up as she needed to, with varying degrees of success.
What they both were - for good or for ill - was decisive, and they had a willingness to listen to others if they knew their stuff and decide accordingly.
Does Sunak have that? If I'm honest I don't know. But what I can say is that apart possibly from Tugendhat and even more tenuously Badenoch the others are showing they don't have it.
Someone change truss's Duracells. She's done. Lucky to be in the next cabinet
But I prefer it to batshit crazy, total inexperience or mindless incompetence.2 -
Please try to post comprehensibly.Gallowgate said:Truss supports Net Zero. Frothers in shambles.
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Maybe Mordaunt warming up a little bit, but she can sound like a policy wonk. Whereas Sunak talks about his daughters.0
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Presumably Kemi doesn't want to go to a private dentist as she thinks it would look bad.0
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She is already clearly miles ahead of Sunak with members, she just needed to avoid a shocker and beat Truss to help ensure her place in the last 2 which she largely didMikeL said:Penny has drifted a touch to 2.18 from 2.08.
I don't think she's done badly enough tonight to lose many votes - but she needs to do more in future debates.1 -
Sunak: my daughters are more fussed about the environment than the economy
Now why would that be?3 -
For some of them not being able to take part in debates and media pieces might assist their campaign.OnboardG1 said:
That would be a supremely awkward way to end the contest. All five candidates miss the count because they're laid up with coof.Leon said:Penny ending better
I suspect Kemi has Covid, with all that coughing, BTW0 -
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it's funny, because earlier I said "how can these channels give free advertising to the Tory Party", I'm not sure it's doing them any good at all now.dixiedean said:How does this channel justify a 2 hour advert for the Labour Party?
Grr.
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You're basing this all on one poll. I'm not sure that's a good basis of evidence.HYUFD said:
She is already clearly miles ahead of Sunak with members, she just needs to avoid a shocker and beat Truss to help ensure her place in the last 2MikeL said:Penny has drifted a touch to 2.18 from 2.08.
I don't think she's done badly enough tonight to lose many votes - but she needs to do more in future debates.0 -
What?3
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Froth.net in supports as Truss shambles.IshmaelZ said:
Please try to post comprehensibly.Gallowgate said:Truss supports Net Zero. Frothers in shambles.
Good on her, I say.0 -
LOL.dixiedean said:How does this channel justify a 2 hour advert for the Labour Party?
Grr.0 -
Tuggy just said "we need that Carbon Capture and Storage off the North East of Scotland".
What a clever man.0 -
"Ms Truss, could you explain your stance on the economy?"kle4 said:
For some of them not being able to take part in debates and media pieces might assist their campaign.OnboardG1 said:
That would be a supremely awkward way to end the contest. All five candidates miss the count because they're laid up with coof.Leon said:Penny ending better
I suspect Kemi has Covid, with all that coughing, BTW
*EUHURHGUR-HACK-EUGHEU-EUGH-HACK*
"Thank you, that was a much better answer than on Friday night"0 -
You must be new hereMaxPB said:
You're basing this all on one poll. I'm not sure that's a good basis of evidence.HYUFD said:
She is already clearly miles ahead of Sunak with members, she just needs to avoid a shocker and beat Truss to help ensure her place in the last 2MikeL said:Penny has drifted a touch to 2.18 from 2.08.
I don't think she's done badly enough tonight to lose many votes - but she needs to do more in future debates.
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Would make even m ore sense if HMG in London hadn't cancelled just that project.RochdalePioneers said:Tuggy just said "we need that Carbon Capture and Storage off the North East of Scotland".
What a clever man.0 -
Not that much.MikeL said:Penny has improved to some degree as debate has gone on.
This may be a pointer for future debates.0 -
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Kemi knocks it out of the park dress sense wise0
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What a weird number. Why not make it 360 while she's at it?williamglenn said:What?
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She doesn't want to go in circles.OnboardG1 said:
What a weird number. Why not make it 360 while she's at it?williamglenn said:What?
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Why 180 innovations? Such a random number.williamglenn said:What?
What kind of innovations? What do you even mean by innovations?
Who is we in this context?
None used in the NHS at all? Really?
Other than that, fine comment.
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Kemi nowhere near ready to be PM.3
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Tugendhat suggests I should get in touch with my MP to say who I want in the final 2. I mean, I could Tom, but I don’t think Keir Starmer gets much input into that decision…7
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Bad Enoch got longer than Tom the Tug0
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Big round of applause for Tom Major0
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Penny's closing statement good.1
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And the Conhome survey and she is not just narrowly ahead of Sunak, she is miles ahead of him with members in bothMaxPB said:
You're basing this all on one poll. I'm not sure that's a good basis of evidence.HYUFD said:
She is already clearly miles ahead of Sunak with members, she just needs to avoid a shocker and beat Truss to help ensure her place in the last 2MikeL said:Penny has drifted a touch to 2.18 from 2.08.
I don't think she's done badly enough tonight to lose many votes - but she needs to do more in future debates.0 -
Didn't she once say that she was named after a cruiser which was the first to make a U-turn inside her own length? Right now she's performing like the Fourth Rate of her surname.ydoethur said:
She doesn't want to go in circles.OnboardG1 said:
What a weird number. Why not make it 360 while she's at it?williamglenn said:What?
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Will Truss end her statement "please, don't have nightmares"0
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Is the debate still going on? Blimey!0
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She's quite right. When did you last see a Watt governor on an NHS ward?williamglenn said:What?
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Keir Starmer will be praying for Mordaunt or Truss on tonight's showing. But I don't think he'll be too alarmed by any of them.bondegezou said:Tugendhat suggests I should get in touch with my MP to say who I want in the final 2. I mean, I could Tom, but I don’t think Keir Starmer gets much input into that decision…
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Which Truss would that be? The old Lib Dem Truss.RochdalePioneers said:Truss is a politician out of time. Decent. Honest. Positive. Engaged with people.
Completely wrong for today's modern Tory party.0 -
Rishi looks very likely to be in the final 2. So Tug can't make it.
2nd place goes to either Penny or one of Truss/Kemi. Truss hasn't been good and would struggle to beat Rishi or Penny. So maybe the "right" will shift towards Kemi and squeeze out Truss.
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Poe: *The Fall of the House of Truss*SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Don't think PM4MP needed a home run. But she at least needed to get to second base.ydoethur said:
Probably inevitable because she had nothing to gain and a huge amount to lose. She was popular by being an unknown quantity that people could project their hopes onto. Inevitable that if she doesn't smash it out of the park that bubble would pop.MikeSmithson said:Biggest loser given her position in the betting is Penny.
Perhaps the Fall of Truss is so dramatic it overshadows Mordaunt's under-performance?
Will be VERY interesting to see how the candidates AND their handlers react and adapt to tonight's realities over the next 46 hours leading up to Sunday's shindig.
And travellers now within that valley,
Through the red-litten windows, see
Vast forms that move fantastically
To a discordant melody;
While, like a rapid ghastly river,
Through the pale door,
A hideous throng rush out forever,
And laugh — but smile no more.0 -
There was no shocker from anyone, except maybe Trussydoethur said:1 -
It's also simply not true: what about electricity?williamglenn said:What?
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That's a completely idiotic soundbite. One of the innovations is X-ray Tomography which is the basis of CT scanning. It's demonstrably false.williamglenn said:What?
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Strong ed miliband energy from rishi. Hell yes1
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Clearly innovation number 181 is critical to this discussion. Like a freaky periodic table.OnboardG1 said:
What a weird number. Why not make it 360 while she's at it?williamglenn said:What?
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Liz = undead.0
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I don't think any Leadership debate has ever moved the odds so much.
Truss has gone from 3.7 to 4.5.
Sunak 4.8 to 3.65.0 -
mRNA Covid vaccines?rcs1000 said:
It's also simply not true: what about electricity?williamglenn said:What?
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Mine would say Corbyn and McDonnell.bondegezou said:Tugendhat suggests I should get in touch with my MP to say who I want in the final 2. I mean, I could Tom, but I don’t think Keir Starmer gets much input into that decision…
Seriously though. It shows they aren't speaking to the country.0 -
Truss looks like she's aged 10 years in a week.
Ran out of time on a (poor) closing statement.
Rishi's pretty good but a weak conclusion.2 -
Jesus Liz. What is this...1
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I blinked at that. Many of those innovations have come from the NHS. I don’t believe it.williamglenn said:What?
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None of the final statements are very good. Sunak’s poorest moment. Mordaunt and Truss somewhat better than their debate performances. Does this matter? Is it about getting a good 15 second clip for the news shows and social media?1
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Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, Coherent Light Emission, transistors...MaxPB said:
That's a completely idiotic soundbite. One of the innovations is X-ray Tomography which is the basis of CT scanning. It's demonstrably false.williamglenn said:What?
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Starmer is probably chuckling into his Doritos.0
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We need to grip this moment by the scruff of the elbow.IshmaelZ said:Strong ed miliband energy from rishi. Hell yes
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Next debate - bacon butty eating contestIshmaelZ said:Strong ed miliband energy from rishi. Hell yes
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Sunak the clear winner.
No doubt.
Truss was beyond woeful.
I can't remember when a front runner has imploded thanks to their own lack of comms skills like we have seen tonight.
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Didn't watch it, but first clip I saw it was he has taken the "greatest hits" of Blair and Clegg....the hand movements and "thanks Sharon that was an excellent question", which Clegg got loads of credit for during the debates...GIN1138 said:Rish annoying me with his hand movements. He's been studying old Tony Blair performances on YouTube hasn't he?
Problem is it isn't new or unique now.1 -
Besides which, even if said poll was a fair indicator of current opinion, it assumes that the Tory membership all pick a stance on any given topic and then refuse to budge a nanometre, regardless of any argument that may subsequently be presented, or any event that may subsequently occur...MaxPB said:
You're basing this all on one poll. I'm not sure that's a good basis of evidence.HYUFD said:
She is already clearly miles ahead of Sunak with members, she just needs to avoid a shocker and beat Truss to help ensure her place in the last 2MikeL said:Penny has drifted a touch to 2.18 from 2.08.
I don't think she's done badly enough tonight to lose many votes - but she needs to do more in future debates.0 -
His korma, please!Gallowgate said:Starmer is probably chuckling into his Doritos.
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But it's public sector. So Baaad, like covid vaccines ...DavidL said:
I blinked at that. Many of those innovations have come from the NHS. I don’t believe it.williamglenn said:What?
OK, but what the hell else can she mean???-1 -
Rishi develops a slight inadvertent hunch when speaking that irritates me the same way Broon's dropping jaw did.0
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2.16 Penny Mordaunt 46%DecrepiterJohnL said:
Commercial break betting:-DecrepiterJohnL said:Betfair next PM
2.04 Penny Mordaunt 49%
3.75 Liz Truss 27%
4.6 Rishi Sunak 22%
32 Kemi Badenoch
130 Tom Tugendhat
130 Dominic Raab
Betfair to make the final two
1.27 Rishi Sunak 79%
1.43 Penny Mordaunt 70%
2.16 Liz Truss 46%
16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
60 Tom Tugendhat
2.06 Penny Mordaunt 49%
4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
4.3 Liz Truss 23%
34 Tom Tugendhat
36 Kemi Badenoch
130 Dominic Raab
3.65 Rishi Sunak 27%
4.5 Liz Truss 22%
30 Kemi Badenoch
50 Tom Tugendhat
130 Dominic Raab-1 -
Why no BBC debate?
Are they being boycotted?0
This discussion has been closed.