politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out
Options
Comments
-
Looking like turnout probably in the upper end of the 85-90% band.
The BF 90-95% band (odds between 13/1-20/1) maybe worth a saver for anyone who wants to cover their bets, going by the clackmannanshire result.0 -
-
Stewart Hosie still expects a Yes vote overall.
His manner is grim though.0 -
They were only marginally ahead of the national average in 1997, which is my baseline.numbertwelve said:
0 -
The mind boggles.oxfordsimon said:0 -
Any news whether Tories are using Merlin software or is it still in the garage?NickPalmer said:
Thanks, David. I lost my very talented marginal seat organiser for 3 months to the Scottish effort and I'd be sorry to hear she'd been wasting her time!DavidL said:
Sorry I am a tory but that is ridiculous. Labour has run 2 campaigns in tandem. They have run BT reaching well outside their comfort zone into tory territory and they have run a Labour campaign to keep their traditional vote onside at the same time. And they have won.oxfordsimon said:
Labour's campaign team has been exposed as being useless - they very nearly lost this. What on earth makes you think that they can turn that round to win a General?surbiton said:Labour for Westminster !
Labour for Holyrood !
One of the professionals I was out with tonight made the comment that this campaign has been about the Labour party in Scotland teaching a new generation of tories how to fight an election and I for one think there is a lot of truth in that.
0 -
We have had to help out a very long standing friend today by trying to get the relevant information and advice on this very issue. When he and his whole family turned up to vote at their local polling station in Edinburgh today, one of his children ( a first time voter), found that their name had already been scored out as having voted already.SimonStClare said:
Sky reporting allegations of electoral fraud in Glasgow - reports of voters turning up to vote only to find some one had already voted in their name.
[edit] at least 10 examples, investigators ready to step in when relevant ballot papers counted.0 -
0
-
Set up a profile and have a look for yourself. You might find some funNeil said:
The mind boggles.oxfordsimon said:0 -
I was out this afternoon with a Labour staff member who was catching the late train back to London. Labour have pulled the stops out for this but a lot of the paddling have been under the water as they obviously did not want to highlight the contribution being made from south of the border. No doubt your organiser is an example of this.NickPalmer said:
Thanks, David. I lost my very talented marginal seat organiser for 3 months to the Scottish effort and I'd be sorry to hear she'd been wasting her time!DavidL said:
Sorry I am a tory but that is ridiculous. Labour has run 2 campaigns in tandem. They have run BT reaching well outside their comfort zone into tory territory and they have run a Labour campaign to keep their traditional vote onside at the same time. And they have won.oxfordsimon said:
Labour's campaign team has been exposed as being useless - they very nearly lost this. What on earth makes you think that they can turn that round to win a General?surbiton said:Labour for Westminster !
Labour for Holyrood !
One of the professionals I was out with tonight made the comment that this campaign has been about the Labour party in Scotland teaching a new generation of tories how to fight an election and I for one think there is a lot of truth in that.
When I was out on Saturday handing out Labour leaflets it was the only time that the Yes campaign was challenged in the streets in the whole campaign. Many voters said to me that "at last you are handing out the right material". It was certainly a lot better received than the BT stuff which is why I was happy to hand it out.
What SLAB have finally learned in this campaign is that the SNP are the enemy, not the tories. If they accurately and properly focus their efforts on the SNP I would expect a Labour victory in the next Scottish elections.
0 -
Sky coverage starting to resemble paint drying [yawn]0
-
Thanks Hunchman! Looks like turnout will handsomely exceed my 81.56% prediction!hunchman said:
Welcome Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:Morning everyone! I decided to work late in the lab - just in case I have to get up late tomorrow - or is it later today LOL!
Have I missed any results?
Inadvertently, due to staying in Birmingham tonight, I caught the penultimate train from Coventry which happened to go via Stechford to Aston to Perry Bar to Soho depot and back round to New Street. Nearly doubled the journey time but pleased I managed to do this rare route
No results yet but plenty of rumour.
Gordon Wilson on BBC Parliament / BBC Scotland now.0 -
I think the Grindr voting wasNeil said:
The mind boggles.oxfordsimon said:
Yes 115
No 145
30 - Too horny to reply.0 -
We could do with a result now. It's getting to that part of the night where we need some information to keep us going..manofkent2014 said:Sky coverage starting to resemble paint drying [yawn]
0 -
-
And he believes in referendums everywhere except UK. Even if he put it in his manifesto.nigel4england said:
He cares about Scandinavia not the UKSeanT said:
Why the F weren't you in Scotland, for the last four weeks??NickPalmer said:
Thanks, David. I lost my very talented marginal seat organiser for 3 months to the Scottish effort and I'd be sorry to hear she'd been wasting her time!DavidL said:
Sorry I am a tory but that is ridiculous. Labour has run 2 campaigns in tandem. They have run BT reaching well outside their comfort zone into tory territory and they have run a Labour campaign to keep their traditional vote onside at the same time. And they have won.oxfordsimon said:
Labour's campaign team has been exposed as being useless - they very nearly lost this. What on earth makes you think that they can turn that round to win a General?surbiton said:Labour for Westminster !
Labour for Holyrood !
One of the professionals I was out with tonight made the comment that this campaign has been about the Labour party in Scotland teaching a new generation of tories how to fight an election and I for one think there is a lot of truth in that.0 -
1 - There's nae f ing results in yetmanofkent2014 said:Sky coverage starting to resemble paint drying [yawn]
2 - you're just kinda very wrong.
0 -
David
Labour have thrown the world at this. For a long long time now. Fair play to Cameron and Clegg though. They basically accepted the Labour line that we should take the lead and they should assist.
Cameron and Clegg put their egos behind them and fair play to them for that.0 -
Somebody needs their eyes testing,
twitter.com/sn0ut/status/512746150315581440/photo/10 -
82.6:91.00
-
Sky:
You could keep the Barnett formula but change the numbers that go into the formula!!!
LOL!0 -
I would go to bed, but there is a storm anyway, so I am staying up.
Still think that YES will end up below 45%, because according to most polls, Women have not been persuaded on independence.
BBC parliament seems have a different BBC Scotland programme, with more info being given.0 -
Yep. Got five weeks' leave and am saving them for April/May. Going to Broxtowe at weekends works - going to Glasgow wouldn't. I'm not convinced I'd have done more good in Scotland.foxinsoxuk said:
In any case, Sean, as you were reminding me a few hundred times, I had a word with two Labour MPs 6 months ago and they said it'd be fine. You seemed a bit nervous for some reason? :-)
0 -
I think I prefer the lilac marigolds.
Fascinating.0 -
Please tell me that fell out of the mouth of that intellectual colossus Kay Burley...MikeL said:Sky:
You could keep the Barnett formula but change the numbers that go into the formula!!!
LOL!0 -
Turnout in Dundee 78.8%0
-
Sunil, obviously extracting the urine! But quite funny anyway.Sunil_Prasannan said:So will it be a case of Falkirk and not Bannockburn?
0 -
77.2: 93.20
-
BBC Better Together Confident in South Ayrshire they have taken it0
-
Beautiful outfit of that Indonesian guy standing next to Dennis Canavan!
Flemish nationalists putting candles by the Saltire on the streets of Brussels tonight - amazing and very touching.0 -
Kay Burley claims the alleged fraud took place in Glasgow's Anniesland constituency.0
-
Or the ballots have just been put on the table in bundles and have not been sorted yet. The tables will have YES & NO ready for when they start to get counted.FrancisUrquhart said:Somebody needs their eyes testing,
twitter.com/sn0ut/status/512746150315581440/photo/1
0 -
78.8% turnout in Yes City. Chortle.
We have lost Dundee but it is a lot closer than Yes ever thought it could be.0 -
I always find voting in polls fun!oxfordsimon said:
Set up a profile and have a look for yourself. You might find some funNeil said:
The mind boggles.oxfordsimon said:
0 -
That's surprisingly lowTheScreamingEagles said:Turnout in Dundee 78.8%
0 -
is there a reason why we have an election program on BBC News and Parliament? Is one a Scot feed?0
-
Surely Yes needed a better turnout than that in Dundee?TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout in Dundee 78.8%
0 -
Thats not good news for the Nats. Its beginning to look like the Nats have done a fantastic job of getting the NO voters out.TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout in Dundee 78.8%
0 -
Kinda want to change my avatar to something British...0
-
No - Adam Boulton / Faisal Islam discussion - think Islam said it but accepted by Boulton.numbertwelve said:
Please tell me that fell out of the mouth of that intellectual colossus Kay Burley...MikeL said:Sky:
You could keep the Barnett formula but change the numbers that go into the formula!!!
LOL!0 -
Its a more generic problem with Sky. Give them an outside broadcast and they flog the issue to death. It doesn't matter if its disaster's, war's or politics. They'll end up dissecting the hairs on flies leg if they get a chance. They are basically just practised at producing mind numbingly boring mediocre TV News!numbertwelve said:
We could do with a result now. It's getting to that part of the night where we need some information to keep us going..manofkent2014 said:Sky coverage starting to resemble paint drying [yawn]
0 -
[I'm not convinced I'd have done more good in Scotland.]
You could have had a cup of tea in a Scottish pub.
0 -
For Yes City, definitely.asjohnstone said:0 -
That looks bad for Yes.TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout in Dundee 78.8%
0 -
Very bad news for Yes. I predicted 82.97%.TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout in Dundee 78.8%
0 -
Cammo reported to make back to wall speech as early as 7am... big day for may 2015 as well.
0 -
It was about 5% below average in 1997...hunchman said:
Surely Yes needed a better turnout than that in Dundee?TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout in Dundee 78.8%
0 -
Will the change of your avatar be permanent, if Flash Gordo is proven to have saved the day? :')Scrapheap_as_was said:Cammo reported to make back to wall speech as early as 7am... big day for may 2015 as well.
0 -
Durham CC Crook Lab hold
Lab 753 UKIP 339 LD 233 Ind 193 Con 90
Previous result 2013 Lab 741 Ind 496 Ind 360 LD 145 Con 54 Green 400 -
Oh, can I have a link to AndyJS' spreadsheet.. and does Rod have one online?0
-
Ruth saying North Lanarkshire going YES by a small margin0
-
Yes hits 15 on Betfair.0
-
USEFUL LINKS
============
DECLARATION TIMES
=============
http://www.cityam.com/1411025376/when-will-scottish-independence-referendum-vote-be-announced-declaration-times-local
ANDYJS'S SPREADSHEETS
===============
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/htmlview?usp=drive_web
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/htmlview?usp=drive_web
YOUGOV's EXIT-ISH POLL
===============
46% Yes 54% No
http://t.co/huG6uJFiJG
FACTS
====
Turnout in Dundee 78.8%
Alan Roden @AlanRoden 43s says turnout at Clackmannanshire is 88.6%. Total ballots 35,411.
Orkney declaration 83.7% turnout.
BBC reporting 93.5% postal votes returned Mid Lothian
RUMOURS (AndyJS figures in brackets for comparison)
=================================
BBC Better Together Confident in South Ayrshire they have taken it (AndyJS: 56.96-43.04 NO)
ITV Yes confident of victory in Dundee (AndyJS: 53.3-46.7 YES)
Ruth Davidson says Borders 70%+ for No (AndyJS: 69.51-30.49 NO)
sKY says 12.45am for the first result - N Lanarkshire
Alan Roden @AlanRoden · 3m says Aberdeenshire looking 60-40 to No (AndyJS: 51.81-48.19 NO)
ITV Says Edinburgh 70-30 so far for NO (AndyJS: 56.23-43.77 NO)
Steven Hope? Tweets expects North Lanarkshire to be 52 - 48 YES (AndyJS: 50.23-49.77 No)
STV reporting that North Ayrshire should be more than 55% in favour of a Yes vote (AndyJS: 53.19-46.81 NO)
BBC saying NO has probably won Falkirk (AndyJS: 51.22-48.78 YES)
GBP/USD
======
1.00 GBP = 1.64319 USD (Mid-market rates: 2014-09-18 23:49 UTC, 00.49BST)
1.00 GBP = 1.63973 USD (Mid-market rates: 2014-09-18 21:17 UTC, 22:17BST)
http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=GBP&To=USD0 -
Vlaams nationalism is associated with the anti-immigrant right. Catalan with the left. Where does the SNP stand? After tonight who knows/cares?hunchman said:Beautiful outfit of that Indonesian guy standing next to Dennis Canavan!
Flemish nationalists putting candles by the Saltire on the streets of Brussels tonight - amazing and very touching.0 -
Glasgow suggesting 54-46 Yes0
-
ITV Clackmanshire neck and neck0
-
BTW I raided the vending machine at Coventry station tonight for yet another Tunnock's 0
-
What if the missing 21.2% in Dundee were predominantly No'ers?0
-
Going to bed in a few mins -- just thinking about a final tweak of my betting positions. Anyone have a view of the final Yes:No percentages please?0
-
Burley wittering that "turnout is expected to be 83.9%"
Where, she doesn't say...0 -
Yes think they have won Glasgow 54/460
-
Better Labour in '15 than the end of the Union.SeanT said:
Hah. As I am in a benign British mood - anticipating a possible victory (Deus Vult) - I will let that go for now, even though I was clearly right about Labour complacency. And PROVEN right.NickPalmer said:
Yep. Got five weeks' leave and am saving them for April/May. Going to Broxtowe at weekends works - going to Glasgow wouldn't. I'm not convinced I'd have done more good in Scotland.foxinsoxuk said:
In any case, Sean, as you were reminding me a few hundred times, I had a word with two Labour MPs 6 months ago and they said it'd be fine. You seemed a bit nervous for some reason? :-)
Anyway. It's not over yet. But if NO wins, I will be happy: I'd far rather Labour wins in 2015 - and you win in Broxtowe - than my country is broken up forever.
You would do well to try and understand, rather belatedly, this patriotic mindset, as it is shared by the majority of Britain's 40-50 million voters.0 -
It was a joke. Have you never heard of a Dundee fruit cake. It normally has almonds on top and contains cheries.hunchman said:0 -
Arrrhhh bless, James Kelly, many of old timers will remember from endless posting on this subject (before being banned by OGH), is still spinning on his blog for Yes, apparently the YouGov isn't as bad news as could be...poor man, years building up to today, 1000's of posts on here and his blog (mainly about how everybody his against him) and it is all going horribly wrong.0
-
STV Highlands postal vote No 60 Yes 400
-
So Tories doubled their vote?MarkSenior said:Durham CC Crook Lab hold
Lab 753 UKIP 339 LD 233 Ind 193 Con 90
Previous result 2013 Lab 741 Ind 496 Ind 360 LD 145 Con 54 Green 400 -
Burley really isn't bright enough for political coverage.RodCrosby said:Burley wittering that "turnout is expected to be 83.9%"
Where, she doesn't say...0 -
40.01 to 45 in to evs on betfair0
-
East Lothian prediction of 62% no0
-
Hi Chris, I trust you got it all sorted out in the end ? - nasty business this, hope these allegations do not mar the whole kit and kaboodle.fitalass said:
We have had to help out a very long standing friend today by trying to get the relevant information and advice on this very issue. When he and his whole family turned up to vote at their local polling station in Edinburgh today, one of his children ( a first time voter), found that their name had already been scored out as having voted already.
SimonStClare said:Sky reporting allegations of electoral fraud in Glasgow - reports of voters turning up to vote only to find some one had already voted in their name.
[edit] at least 10 examples, investigators ready to step in when relevant ballot papers counted.0 -
GBPUSD chopping a bit lower now at <1.6420. Glasgow rumours encouraging to offset Dundee.0
-
Yes hits 16 on Betfair.0
-
No saying they are winning in North Lanarkshire on Sky. Would be devastating for Yes if true.0
-
Reporter by the name of "Polling" reports from Midlothian!0
-
0
-
A Labour MP from Coatbridge saying NO is leading there contradicting Ruth Davison. But he's old,,,,,0
-
Link?FrancisUrquhart said:Arrrhhh bless, James Kelly, many of old timers will remember from endless posting on this subject (before being banned by OGH), is still spinning on his blog for Yes, apparently the YouGov isn't as bad news as could be...poor man, years building up to today, 1000's of posts on here and his blog (mainly about how everybody his against him) and it is all going horribly wrong.
0 -
very bad for YES, if truenumbertwelve said:East Lothian prediction of 62% no
0 -
The low turnout in Dundee may indicate that not as many newly registered voters have actually voted compared to the hopes of the Yes campaign. Will be interesting to see the turnout for Glasgow in case there is a similar number.0
-
YES 40-45% is the new odds on favourite on Betfair. Right down to 1.93, was over 3.00 less than half an hour ago.0
-
This woman on BBC reporting from the Midlothian count sounds like she doesn't really know what to say. Ramble ramble ramble0
-
But she's a tory...AndreaParma_82 said:A Labour MP from Coatbridge saying NO is leading there contradicting Ruth Davison. But he's old,,,,,
0 -
Where is malcolmg?
If NO win, will he be back?0 -
-
Glasgow may turn out to be the only area that goes yes0
-
I predicted 49.77% Yes, 50.23% No.AndreaParma_82 said:Ruth saying North Lanarkshire going YES by a small margin
0
This discussion has been closed.