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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

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  • Richard Lyle of SNP on Sky is optimistic. Says that the polls are badly wrong.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    Nick Robinson sounding very much like he's been briefed that Cameron is going to come out in favour of English devolution.

    Could Cameron turn this into a vote winner?
  • SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    That's a bit over the top.

    Need to respect individual's choices - he has every right to have his opinion even though I personally don't agree with him.
    No. Someone with his position, wealth and responsibility - especially someone living in England, who won his most famous victory at the All England Tennis Club - owes England, and Britain, a little more loyalty than he has shown. Likewise his turning-point win was at the Olympics in London, as part of Team GB.

    I for one will find it difficult to cheer him from now on. My fellow Englishmen and women will probably be more charitable and forgiving, and that is part of their charm - as English people.

    Andy Murray should reflect on that.

    The English have usually been very good winners. Rather poorer losers.
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    If we are going to rebalance the constitutional settlement of the UK, that will take time. Rushing it will on create more problems. Labour rushed devolution back in 1997/8 and created a system they thought would mean the SNP would never win a majority. How wrong they were.

    Constitutional change cannot be rushed. Indeed it should never be rushed. Do it right, do it once.
    We had two years of indy debate, so deserve a proper debate on devomax for all nations, and for these to get a democratic mandate in the manifestos in May 2015.
    We can start the process, start having those conversations - but it has to be spot on before we institute a radical change like devomax.
    DevoMax is not on the table. A lot of misinformed people on here of all places.
    If that's the view of more people out there then a lot of people will be very upset if they voted no on that basis.

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    if cameron insists on EV4EL as part of post referendum negotiations then labour are stuffed. whatever the outcome labour are stuffed.
  • James Cook ‏@BBCJamesCook 1m

    Yes camp "much happier now than half an hour ago". Senior source says Glasgow "looking good for us". #indyref #Scotland
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Yes think they have won Motherwell
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Howard said:

    Richard Lyle of SNP on Sky is optimistic. Says that the polls are badly wrong.

    He's had a double charisma bypass operation.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @numbertwelve
    If that's true, I will have a drink to it. It has been sorely needed for a long time.
  • Gaius said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    1. Sulking.
    2. Retired to the library with his service revolver.
    3. Getting a new user name.
    4. All 3 of the above.

    malc's been waiting a long time for this chance,maybe only chance,to set Scotland free of Tory rule.He defended his position resolutely.All losers must be allowed to save face.Some you lose and some you win but malc can hold his head high,win or lose.He who casts the first stone.........

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    @rupertmurdoch 'Exit polls sound very ominous for YES. Now everybody on both sides must ensure Cameron and Milliband keep heir promises and not weasel out.'
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    Gone to bed early to prepare for a conveniently arranged holiday starting tomorrow. My guess is you won't be hearing from him again in a hurry.

    He's coming down to my neck of the woods. And for a very specific celebration too, so nothing "convenient" about the timing as it happens.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Looks like Rupert dodged a bullet there, otherwise could have been 'The Sun wot lost it!'
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Dundee 90% turnout

    Good news for yes
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Good luck to Sturgeon trying that trick, have no doubt that Salmond knew what he was doing when he stuck her in charge of the SNP Holyrood Government role of Independence campaign manager. The whole SNP campaign and subsequent result is definitely the joint responsibility of Salmond and Sturgeon whatever the outcome.
    TGOHF said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Senior Yes figures already planning to slate Salmond's lack of leadership. Sturgeon has let it be known she shares these gripes. #indyref

  • So are we going to see a Downfall parody with Salmond as Hitler ?

    How about a PB version with one of the PB SNATs as Hitler.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Orkney declaration coming
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    Orkney declares turnout of 83.7%
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    mjt said:

    Biggest winner in the event of a No is going to be Nigel Farage.

    He's going to whip up a hoolie over the preferential treatment being dished out to the Scots.

    Opportunist Farage would whip up a stink about anything. The prerogative of the harlot....

  • Orkney turnout is 84 percent!
  • Turnout only people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    ITV Says Edinburgh 70-30 so far for NO
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    83.7% turnout in Orkney
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    They've already said Draft Bill only.

    No way Cameron is going to risk a huge bust up / backbench rebellion 3 months before the GE.

    Despite all the excitement on here, it will largely fade out of the news until after the GE.
    Kicking the issue into the manifesto is not going to prevent a bust-up. I don't think many Tory MPs would object to a fair settlement; it's the back-of-an-envelope, one-sided offer that I suspect most have concerns about. Deferring change until 2015+ (and possibly a Miliband-led government), won't make that concern go away.
  • Orkney declaration 83.7% turnout.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Orkney declares turnout of 83.7%

    Should be 80% NO
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    That's a bit over the top.

    Need to respect individual's choices - he has every right to have his opinion even though I personally don't agree with him.
    No. Someone with his position, wealth and responsibility - especially someone living in England, who won his most famous victory at the All England Tennis Club - owes England, and Britain, a little more loyalty than he has shown. Likewise his turning-point win was at the Olympics in London, as part of Team GB.

    I for one will find it difficult to cheer him from now on. My fellow Englishmen and women will probably be more charitable and forgiving, and that is part of their charm - as English people.

    Andy Murray should reflect on that.

    I'm sure he wont dare to express an opinion you disagree with ever again after tonight.

    I'm afraid that Andy Murray will forever be bracketed with Buster Mottram in the dishonour roll of extreme nationalist tennis players. He's a wrong'un.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    edited September 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Is North Lanarkshire expected to be one of the most Yes-leaning?

    I would say that YouGov has it about right. Will be 50/50 or maybe just edged by No. Labour fought a better campaign here than elsewhere and the SNP suffer from some local issues such as why has no money gone into Monklands? It is hard for the SNP to talk about saving the NHS when they have left the local hospital as a group of portacabins.

  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Danny565 said:

    Is North Lanarkshire expected to be one of the most Yes-leaning?

    It would be probably considered somewhere in the middle out of all the council areas.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I predicted a turnout in Orkney of 15,000.

    It was actually 14,907.
  • That rogue ICM did them nor the DT any good.DT seemed more to back Yes in several bodged up attempts to vote Yes.
    H/T Andrew Sparrow of the Grauniad,top drawer info..
  • MikeL said:

    Nick Robinson sounding very much like he's been briefed that Cameron is going to come out in favour of English devolution.

    Could Cameron turn this into a vote winner?
    English devolution? Or English cantonisation?

  • Gaius said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    1. Sulking.
    2. Retired to the library with his service revolver.
    3. Getting a new user name.
    4. All 3 of the above.

    malc's been waiting a long time for this chance,maybe only chance,to set Scotland free of Tory rule.He defended his position resolutely.All losers must be allowed to save face.Some you lose and some you win but malc can hold his head high,win or lose.He who casts the first stone.........

    I agree. In any case we don't know any results yet. But those who win (yes or no) lets be gracious.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Labour for Westminster !

    Labour for Holyrood !
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    That's a bit over the top.

    Need to respect individual's choices - he has every right to have his opinion even though I personally don't agree with him.
    No. Someone with his position, wealth and responsibility - especially someone living in England, who won his most famous victory at the All England Tennis Club - owes England, and Britain, a little more loyalty than he has shown. Likewise his turning-point win was at the Olympics in London, as part of Team GB.

    I for one will find it difficult to cheer him from now on. My fellow Englishmen and women will probably be more charitable and forgiving, and that is part of their charm - as English people.

    Andy Murray should reflect on that.

    I'm sure he wont dare to express an opinion you disagree with ever again after tonight.

    I'm afraid that Andy Murray will forever be bracketed with Buster Mottram is the dishonour roll of extreme nationalist tennis players. He's a wrong'un.
    You're missing having James Kelly to bounce off, arent you?

  • Nobody knows how this is going to go according to pleasant SNP Glasgow man on Sky.
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    If we are going to rebalance the constitutional settlement of the UK, that will take time. Rushing it will on create more problems. Labour rushed devolution back in 1997/8 and created a system they thought would mean the SNP would never win a majority. How wrong they were.

    Constitutional change cannot be rushed. Indeed it should never be rushed. Do it right, do it once.
    The American constitution was written by their convention in less than four months and has largely been good for two and a quarter centuries.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    40/60 vote split is ridiculous - will be a lot closer
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    AndyJS said:

    I predicted a turnout in Orkney of 15,000.

    It was actually 14,907.

    What is your take on this so far

    I really think 45.01 to 50% for yes
  • HYUFD said:

    ITV Says Edinburgh 70-30 so far for NO

    Capital.
  • When you consider all the impediments to getting to a polling station in a place like Orkney, 84% is very good.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    84% turnout in Orkney
    89% in Clackmannashire

    42% voted for Lab + Tories in 2010 #sicktodeath
  • surbiton said:

    Labour for Westminster !

    Labour for Holyrood !

    Labour's campaign team has been exposed as being useless - they very nearly lost this. What on earth makes you think that they can turn that round to win a General?
  • There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    If it's a Yes, I think we could be 100% certain that there would be.

    In any case, those you name - plus some others - have spent many months insulting anyone who had the temerity to express a view which, as things stand, appears to have been right.

    So, in the circumstances: let's have a healthy dose of gloating and triumphalism!

    Not my cup of tea, I'm afraid. When it's done it's done. If Yes loses they'll feel sick to the pits of their stomachs. That's enough.

    They'll probably feel that way if they win, at least after the euphoria and hangover have died away "oh shit we have to run a country now".

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    surbiton said:

    Labour for Westminster !

    Labour for Holyrood !

    Is there no way you'd go back to voting Lib Dem?

  • Alan Roden ‏@AlanRoden 43s

    Turnout at Clackmannanshire is 88.6%. Total ballots 35,411. #indyref
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Told you turnout wouldn't be higher than 85%, and the national figure probably won't be higher than Orkney.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Alan Roden @AlanRoden · 3m
    Latest from Aberdeenshire is that it's looking 60-40 to No. #indyref
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    AndyJS said:

    I predicted a turnout in Orkney of 15,000.

    It was actually 14,907.

    Good call - well done!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Danny565 said:

    Is North Lanarkshire expected to be one of the most Yes-leaning?

    UNS figure to watch is 58.3% YES.


    Orkney turnout figure implies (UNS) around 91% nationally. Just one result, of course...
  • Betfair matched has just gone past £16m matched
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    If you want a relatively risk free BF trade:

    Lay: Yes @ 11-1

    Back: Yes 50.01-55% @ 14-1
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT Murray has a house in Surrey, but he spends most of his time in Miami!

    Champagne nationalist!

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    They've already said Draft Bill only.

    No way Cameron is going to risk a huge bust up / backbench rebellion 3 months before the GE.

    Despite all the excitement on here, it will largely fade out of the news until after the GE.
    Kicking the issue into the manifesto is not going to prevent a bust-up. I don't think many Tory MPs would object to a fair settlement; it's the back-of-an-envelope, one-sided offer that I suspect most have concerns about. Deferring change until 2015+ (and possibly a Miliband-led government), won't make that concern go away.
    Sure there will still be concern - but it's far less dangerous for Cameron than trying to get a Bill through Parliament.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2014
    Burley as subtle as ever - says to SNP YES supporter: "you going to lose this aren't you!"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I predicted a turnout in Orkney of 15,000.

    It was actually 14,907.

    What is your take on this so far

    I really think 45.01 to 50% for yes
    I think it'll be Yes between 45% and 47%.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    AndyJS said:

    I predicted a turnout in Orkney of 15,000.

    It was actually 14,907.

    That is seriously impressive. Well done.
  • Clackmannanshire, which is a remote place, 88% turnout! Surely all the more impressive when you consider that in a rural place like that you would need to trek quite a distance.
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    If we are going to rebalance the constitutional settlement of the UK, that will take time. Rushing it will on create more problems. Labour rushed devolution back in 1997/8 and created a system they thought would mean the SNP would never win a majority. How wrong they were.

    Constitutional change cannot be rushed. Indeed it should never be rushed. Do it right, do it once.
    The American constitution was written by their convention in less than four months and has largely been good for two and a quarter centuries.
    Things have changed somewhat since then - society and politics are far more complicated than anything the Founding Fathers had to contend with.

    I am not saying that it is impossible - but it has to be done well and done right. I would rather take say 2 years and have something fit for purpose for 100 years rather than something that will need to be revised in 20 years because it has failed.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    I predicted a turnout in Orkney of 15,000.

    It was actually 14,907.

    That is seriously impressive. Well done.
    It is isn't it. Cracking work.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Clackmannanshire turnout implies 94% nationally (UNS). Again just one result...
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    AndyJS. What is your prediction on overall % turnout?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Perdix Perhaps Sir Sean Connery will invite him to his Bahamas villa or Manhattan apartment to drown their sorrows
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33

    Burley as subtle as ever - says to SNP YES supporter: "you going to lose this aren't you!"

    She can't carry off confrontation in the way Boulton can.

    She comes over as an irritating harpie.

  • Howard said:

    Clackmannanshire, which is a remote place, 88% turnout! Surely all the more impressive when you consider that in a rural place like that you would need to trek quite a distance.

    As I remember Clackmanshire is one of the smallest counties in Scotland and is located in the central belt.
  • mjt said:

    If you want a relatively risk free BF trade:

    Lay: Yes @ 11-1

    Back: Yes 50.01-55% @ 14-1

    This evening is for sitting back and waiting for the money to flow.I fear several errors could be made as one needs a clear head.On that risk assessment I decline.PB has a few arbers.Good spot.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    BBC Yes concedes No likely to win East Lothian, but could be close
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    The leaders only agreed to publish a bill. They can't guarantee how MPs will vote. Or do you believe that Parliament is somehow bound by a private agreement made by three of its members?

    False choice. Parliament's job is not simply approving or rejecting bills but amending them as well. I do think that parliament is largely bound by the commitment to further devolution as the Scots have voted on the basis of that promise and few if any MPs have voiced opposition to the idea, so the reasonable presumption is that it would be delivered. The open question still to be answered is about the rest of the UK and it's there that the MPs' job is to be done.
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    .. and keeping the Devomax bill on the boil ties the LDs in right up to the election.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    HYUFD said:

    ITV Says Edinburgh 70-30 so far for NO

    Must be referring to postal votes?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanT Sounds pretty accurate, Murdoch will always put his reputation and circulation figures first
  • So when do we expect the first SRA terrorist attack ?

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    If we are going to rebalance the constitutional settlement of the UK, that will take time. Rushing it will on create more problems. Labour rushed devolution back in 1997/8 and created a system they thought would mean the SNP would never win a majority. How wrong they were.

    Constitutional change cannot be rushed. Indeed it should never be rushed. Do it right, do it once.
    The American constitution was written by their convention in less than four months and has largely been good for two and a quarter centuries.
    It needed the 2nd and 10th Amendments to really improve it though. I'd have both of those in the UK too, myself. And the 27th; I'm a big fan of that one for here as well.
  • The Americans were also dealing with a much younger country... That hadn't had the disadvantage of thousands of years of historical baggage, grievances and nuances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Moniker indeed
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    5. Pretending he's going to work today... I mean really?
    Gaius said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    1. Sulking.
    2. Retired to the library with his service revolver.
    3. Getting a new user name.
    4. All 3 of the above.

  • Sounds like a phenomenal turnout - said to be good for NO as people polls don't reach (the lowest income people who don't have mobiles or landlines) turn up.

    So this could be very close and could still turn yes I think!
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Burley as subtle as ever - says to SNP YES supporter: "you going to lose this aren't you!"

    Was she wearing that nasty cap?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    stjohn said:

    AndyJS. What is your prediction on overall % turnout?

    My final prediction (from before 10pm) was 83.35%. Might be slightly on the high side, given the Orkney figure. I'm not going to change my predictions as the results come in.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Alan Roden @AlanRoden · 3m
    Latest from Aberdeenshire is that it's looking 60-40 to No. #indyref

    Not bad for YES. Would imply 50.6% YES (UNS from 1997)
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    Howard said:

    Clackmannanshire, which is a remote place, 88% turnout! Surely all the more impressive when you consider that in a rural place like that you would need to trek quite a distance.

    As I remember Clackmanshire is one of the smallest counties in Scotland and is located in the central belt.
    Correct Clackmannanshire is the smallest mainland council area with about 40k voters. It is between Stiling and Perth in centre of Scotland
  • MikeL said:

    Nick Robinson sounding very much like he's been briefed that Cameron is going to come out in favour of English devolution.

    Could Cameron turn this into a vote winner?
    English devolution? Or English cantonisation?

    Switzerland works.
  • SeanT said:

    Howard said:

    When you consider all the impediments to getting to a polling station in a place like Orkney, 84% is very good.

    My sense is that the NO voting areas are showing better turnout than poorer YES areas. And that is winning it for NO, despite very high turnout overall.
    Very difficult to say as of yet as no figures in from NO areas. Need to hold on and not prematurely call this. Can still go YES.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SeanT
    I heard a rumour that MI5 were airdropping bottles of "buckie" on Castlemilk last night.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Howard said:

    Sounds like a phenomenal turnout - said to be good for NO as people polls don't reach (the lowest income people who don't have mobiles or landlines) turn up.

    So this could be very close and could still turn yes I think!

    Am still finding this hard to read, NO obviously very confident and yet Glasgow looks like it might go YES.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    SeanT said:

    Howard said:

    When you consider all the impediments to getting to a polling station in a place like Orkney, 84% is very good.

    My sense is that the NO voting areas are showing better turnout than poorer YES areas. And that is winning it for NO, despite very high turnout overall.
    I think Salmond's stupid comments about the No campaign disintegrating a couple of weeks ago galvanised the No campaign. Mike was right when he said Salmond needed to avoid the Kinnock route of celebration too early.
  • DanSmith said:

    Howard said:

    Sounds like a phenomenal turnout - said to be good for NO as people polls don't reach (the lowest income people who don't have mobiles or landlines) turn up.

    So this could be very close and could still turn yes I think!

    Am still finding this hard to read, NO obviously very confident and yet Glasgow looks like it might go YES.
    I think there is just not enough info out there for the conclusions people are drawing on TV and online here.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    BBC Yes concedes No likely to win East Lothian, but could be close

    Again a good result for YES (relatively). East Lothian almost replicated the national result in 1997...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Plato said:

    5. Pretending he's going to work today... I mean really?

    Gaius said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    1. Sulking.
    2. Retired to the library with his service revolver.
    3. Getting a new user name.
    4. All 3 of the above.

    As I have already said on this thread, he's coming down here to my part of the world on holiday tomorrow. And it's for a specific event so the clash with the referendum was unavoidable. There is no conspiracy on his part.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Sharp move to 85-90% turnout band

    70-75% 13-20
    80-85% 2.68-2.92
    85-90% 1.86-1.98
    90-95% 14-25
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    stjohn said:

    AndyJS. What is your prediction on overall % turnout?

    My final prediction (from before 10pm) was 83.35%. Might be slightly on the high side, given the Orkney figure. I'm not going to change my predictions as the results come in.
    I went for 44.34% Yes and 83.41% turnout in the prediction contest, so looking good.
  • "I'm afraid that Andy Murray will forever be bracketed with Buster Mottram is the dishonour roll of extreme nationalist tennis players. He's a wrong'un."

    So for wanting self rule.....you are "an extreme nationalist"...

    Tell that to the countless millions who died under the British Empire through war and starvation.....Im sure their remains will be gleeful you think someone voting YES is a total bigot
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Howard said:

    DanSmith said:

    Howard said:

    Sounds like a phenomenal turnout - said to be good for NO as people polls don't reach (the lowest income people who don't have mobiles or landlines) turn up.

    So this could be very close and could still turn yes I think!

    Am still finding this hard to read, NO obviously very confident and yet Glasgow looks like it might go YES.
    I think there is just not enough info out there for the conclusions people are drawing on TV and online here.
    Very much so. A 1992 repeat would be fun!
  • mjt said:

    Burley as subtle as ever - says to SNP YES supporter: "you going to lose this aren't you!"

    She can't carry off confrontation in the way Boulton can.

    She comes over as an irritating harpie.
    I don't think Burley is bright enough to be an 'irritating harpie' - a marionette with a mic..?
  • MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Howard said:

    When you consider all the impediments to getting to a polling station in a place like Orkney, 84% is very good.

    My sense is that the NO voting areas are showing better turnout than poorer YES areas. And that is winning it for NO, despite very high turnout overall.
    I think Salmond's stupid comments about the No campaign disintegrating a couple of weeks ago galvanised the No campaign. Mike was right when he said Salmond needed to avoid the Kinnock route of celebration too early.
    We're alright!

    I still wonder if Salmond might go. Obviously dependant on how close the result is, but the expectation was it would be very close. And that was played upon by the SNP.

    If it's a more decisive no than predicted by the polls, I wonder if there may be a backlash. Particularly on the currency point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    ITV says some of the 90% + turnout in good Tory areas, helping No
  • Guardian saying Yes getting chipper in Glasgow and No saying it looks like they've lost in Dundee.

    Things turning?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Road closed near Inverness.

    Dingwall count significantly delayed to around 7am at earliest
  • Guardian saying Yes getting chipper in Glasgow and No saying it looks like they've lost in Dundee.

    Things turning?

    QTWTAIN
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I predicted a turnout in Orkney of 15,000.

    It was actually 14,907.

    What is your take on this so far

    I really think 45.01 to 50% for yes
    I think it'll be Yes between 45% and 47%.
    Based on what?
This discussion has been closed.