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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    ITV Clackmanshire neck and neck

    I predicted 50.75% Yes, 49.25% No.
    Hey Andy, which of your spreadsheets is the one to watch in terms of actual figures being entered?
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    1st declaration in Clackmannasnshire? Then North Lanks? What happened to Western Isles?

    BBC Parliament feed (Sco) seems to be less offensive than others.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Recount in Orkney due to 1 vote decrepancy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Interesting a lot of agreement between Jim Sillars and Michael Forsyth on ITV on lack of differences between main parties and lack of thought into new constitution plans
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Neil said:

    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    As he and others said many times - on holidays.
    That hasn't stopped him posting many, many, many times over the past 24 hours. His silence is rather deafening.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    If NO win, will he be back?

    He's talking to Huw Edwards right now (or at least a YES fan named Malcolm!)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,387
    edited September 2014
    So to summarise

    South Ayrshire NO, as predicted
    Dundee YES, as predicted
    Borders NO, as predicted
    Edinburgh, NO, as predicted but much more than predicted
    North Lanarkshire: YES, against predictions but not by much
    North Ayrshire: YES, against prediction and by quite a lot
    Falkirk: NO, against prediction but not by much

    So: things still on for a No. Falkirk cancels out North Lanarkshire, and North Ayrshire's switch to Yes is outweighed by Edinburgh's massive No.

    Fair summary?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    numbertwelve said:

    This woman on BBC reporting from the Midlothian count sounds like she doesn't really know what to say. Ramble ramble ramble

    She's my favourite. I dont know what to make of it - except it's not punditry.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    ooo I like the bar chart on the Guardian's blog.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Numbercruncher reckoned that with an overall tie Dundee would be 58.1% Yes and Clackmannanshire 56.7% Yes. If Yes have only just won Dundee and neck and neck in Clackmannanshire then YES are in big trouble.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    FT columnist

    "There is no easy answer. Anyone sensible who has been watching events in Scotland will draw unnerving conclusions. If today’s elites do not provide more closely accountable government they will be swept aside by the politics of exclusion. A globalisation that enriches the richest and impoverishes the rest is not sustainable. The case for open, inclusive societies has to be remade."

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/66eea470-3e76-11e4-b7fc-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3DiPm92Kk
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    ITV No from Western Isles
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Neil said:

    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    As he and others said many times - on holidays.
    Yeah and I have a bridge to sell you ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    AndyJS said:

    Recount in Orkney due to 1 vote decrepancy.

    Hopefully not 1 vote in it!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    I predicted 50.29% YES.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Neil said:

    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    As he and others said many times - on holidays.
    Bet he goes on holiday to the civilised world in England.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    viewcode said:

    So to summarise

    South Ayrshire NO, as predicted
    Dundee YES, as predicted
    Borders NO, as predicted
    Edinburgh, NO, as predicted but much more than predicted
    North Lanarkshire: YES, against predictions but not by much
    North Ayrshire: YES, against prediction and by quite a lot
    Falkirk: NO, against prediction but not by much

    So: things still on for a No. Falkirk cancels out North Lanarkshire, and North Ayrshire's switch to Yes is outweighed by Edinburgh's massive No.

    Fair summary?

    There are no results yet.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Recount in Orkney due to 1 vote decrepancy.

    Joke, surely, unless it is the one vote?
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    oxfordsimon said:

    Neil said:

    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    As he and others said many times - on holidays.
    That hasn't stopped him posting many, many, many times over the past 24 hours. His silence is rather deafening.
    ...deafening...and possibly ominous?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Recount in Orkney due to 1 vote decrepancy.

    Joke, surely, unless it is the one vote?
    They do things by the book in the northern isles.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    ITV No from Western Isles

    Bad for YES, although a small area...
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    How close would it need to be to force a total recount?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    ITV Clackmanshire neck and neck

    I predicted 50.75% Yes, 49.25% No.
    Hey Andy, which of your spreadsheets is the one to watch in terms of actual figures being entered?
    Unfortunately I'm not entering the real figures because I only have an iPad with me at the moment and it's difficult to use a spreadsheet with those.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Saltire said:

    The low turnout in Dundee may indicate that not as many newly registered voters have actually voted compared to the hopes of the Yes campaign. Will be interesting to see the turnout for Glasgow in case there is a similar number.

    One of the curiosities that bears examination is that far more 16-17 year olds were added to the register in Dundee than actually exist. Maybe these kids, whose ages apparently went down to 11, did not in fact turn up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    manofkent2014 said:

    How close would it need to be to force a total recount?

    Probably less than 50,000 votes overall.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    GLASGOW 54 Yes 46 No say Yes
  • HowardHoward Posts: 97
    We have no results yet, can't just go on whether people in Yes look glum.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    manofkent2014 said:

    How close would it need to be to force a total recount?

    There will be no total recounts - these can only happen on a local authority basis

  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    That's a huge statement by Cameron. Wow.

    I'd be surprised if his stock doesn't now rise. If it wasn't for that berk Carswell a GE2015 victory would be a certainty from here.
This discussion has been closed.