Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

124678

Comments

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    High turnout = clear and setttled will of the Scottish people.

    No need for another referendum for a generation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Ruth Davidson says Borders 70%+ for No
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    Or chortling.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    N Lanarkshire to declare at 12.45....
  • 12.45am for the first result - N Lanarkshire (according to Sky)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    SeanT said:

    I hope this isn't premature - God forgive me if it is - but it seems to me the loyal Brit voters, in Scotland, have emerged as a kind of silent majority. Uncowed, subdued, muted - and determined.

    And then they voted NO, in big big numbers.

    Yes. The result is going to be 60:40 or thereabouts, as I've always said.
  • @christopherhope 12m
    Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref


    If correct, there's money to be made by backing the 40% - 45% Yes Band with Betfair, where the price is currently around 2/1 net. The above 43% prediction is nicely mid-band providing a little leeway therefore.
    DYOR.

    Already done. Focussing all me bets there now.
  • 12.45am for the first result - N Lanarkshire (according to Sky)

    I might be vaguely awake then
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    N Lanarkshire to declare at 12.45....

    Putting the kettle on.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Southam

    I agree. Passionate politics is hugely important! I respect the pork!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    N Lanarkshire first declaration expected 12.45am
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Salmond has cancelled plans to go to the Aberdeenshire count.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    Ruth Davidson says Borders 70%+ for No

    Would imply YES 42% (UNS from 1997)
  • Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    @christopherhope 12m
    Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref

    If that is the result Devomax might be kicked into the long grass.
    Any attempt to break "The Vow" will go down about as well as a nuke over Edinburgh.

    If they want to ensure a Yes vote in 10-20 years time, they can break it by all means.
    And if British voters decide they don't want it? It can only be guaranteed by never putting it to a democratic test.

  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    @christopherhope 12m
    Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref


    Can he,I hope the English MP's have some balls for once and make sure the English are not screwed on the new deals for Scotland.
    Cameron will have to face UKIP in parliament after Oct. 9th, I expect resistance to Devomax will become another UKIP flagship policy.
    Why would we resist it when Paul Nuttall has put out a paper calling for a Federal UK and effectively devomax for all four home nations? Surely the line will be not to deny the Scots but to attack Westminster for trying to deny the English?
  • Scotland goes er......Pop:

    Anonymous said...
    If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.

    September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM

    SNP POISON.

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    Believe me Southam there will be plenty of gloating when it comes to you and your predictions.
  • Feeling pretty confident about this now.. Going to snatch some sleep. Work tomorrow, alas.

    Back at 3am!
  • Danny565 said:

    Salmond has cancelled plans to go to the Aberdeenshire count.

    Sounds like he is... what is the word? Oh yes...

    Frit!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?
  • There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    If it's a Yes, I think we could be 100% certain that there would be.

    In any case, those you name - plus some others - have spent many months insulting anyone who had the temerity to express a view which, as things stand, appears to have been right.

    So, in the circumstances: let's have a healthy dose of gloating and triumphalism!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.
  • Anyone else think that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead, was probably the worst thing that happened to Yes Scotland?

    Came too soon, and gave an opportunity for Better Together to galvanise their vote and to made sure they came out to vote.
  • Scotland goes er......Pop:

    Anonymous said...
    If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.

    September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM

    SNP POISON.

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    Believe me Southam there will be plenty of gloating when it comes to you and your predictions.

    Of course! I'll be happy to take everything I will undoubtedly get - if Yes loses.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Scotland goes er......Pop:

    Anonymous said...
    If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.

    September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM

    SNP POISON.

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    Believe me Southam there will be plenty of gloating when it comes to you and your predictions.
    And even more when it comes to those like Easteross who pretended to know how their fellow Scots were going to vote .
  • Scotland goes er......Pop:

    Anonymous said...
    If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.

    September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM

    SNP POISON.

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.


    You should 'pop' by there from time to time. Mick Pork spews out some of the most childish and pathetic abuse against anyone who doesn't share his warped view of the world. Still to this day he stalks PB and reports back with regular nastiness aimed at many on here.

    I'm convinced he's 12.
  • Did the Sun back anyone today? I saw their front page and it wasn't clear whether they had expressed a preference.
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    A decisive win for No will be a relief for the 400,000 English eligible to vote. You can well imagine the reaction if the winning margin was in the tens of thousands.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Danny565 said:

    Salmond has cancelled plans to go to the Aberdeenshire count.

    LOL. Won't it be hysterical if No wins by a landslide.
  • Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    @christopherhope 12m
    Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref

    If that is the result Devomax might be kicked into the long grass.
    Any attempt to break "The Vow" will go down about as well as a nuke over Edinburgh.

    If they want to ensure a Yes vote in 10-20 years time, they can break it by all means.
    And if British voters decide they don't want it? It can only be guaranteed by never putting it to a democratic test.

    Oh, I understand what you're saying, but the realpolitik is they have to get it through or face independence in the fairly near future. Breaking 'The Vow' would become a legendary event like the early introduction of the poll tax... It would fuel bad feeling for years and years to come, and the nationalists would have a ready-made campaign: "You trusted them one last time and they failed you. How can you ever trust them again?"
  • SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    Whereas you are happy to take money from poor people in England and give it to rich people in Scotland. Nasty.
  • Dougie said:

    Did the Sun back anyone today? I saw their front page and it wasn't clear whether they had expressed a preference.

    They said they trusted the people of Scotland... so they sat very firmly on the fence
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    If it's a Yes, I think we could be 100% certain that there would be.

    In any case, those you name - plus some others - have spent many months insulting anyone who had the temerity to express a view which, as things stand, appears to have been right.

    So, in the circumstances: let's have a healthy dose of gloating and triumphalism!
    Quite right. They should kiss MCARSE!
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    He said he was working tomorrow. I never said I don't r(R?)espect the workers.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:

    I respect the pork!

    Best served with apple sauce.

    We need some graphics from Sethavery.
  • Anyway, it does look as though James Kelly was correct all along: Scot Goes Pop indeed.
  • It is a good time to remember, we've not had a single declaration yet
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    Anyone else think that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead, was probably the worst thing that happened to Yes Scotland?

    Came too soon, and gave an opportunity for Better Together to galvanise their vote and to made sure they came out to vote.

    Yep. Complacency would have been Yes's best friend in terms of the No vote.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Dougie

    Murdoch wanted to back Yes but then his editorial board had a word and said it is unlikely to happen so are you sure you wanna back a loser!
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    I'll stay up to 01.00 to hear the first result and then set the alarm clock for 06.00. Inevitably the result will be announced a lot later than that!
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282

    "YouGov predicts that No has won Scotland’s referendum with 54% of the vote

    YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post."

    Haven't they over-sampled postal voters?


    I wonder how you gov chose their Postal/polling station split?Their proportion is 30%
    50% higher than the 20% that has been floating around?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Anyone else think that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead, was probably the worst thing that happened to Yes Scotland?

    Came too soon, and gave an opportunity for Better Together to galvanise their vote and to made sure they came out to vote.

    MI5 played a blinder !
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33

    Dougie said:

    Did the Sun back anyone today? I saw their front page and it wasn't clear whether they had expressed a preference.

    They said they trusted the people of Scotland... so they sat very firmly on the fence
    A very unsubtle strap line purporting to relate to something other than the referendum.

  • There is genuine anger amongst several of my friends as the pathetic performance of BT campaign team in Glasgow. In Govan the locals had to make up their own banners as BT failed to deliver posters. While Yes brought in anyone it could find from the University BT virtually ignored them. The bloggers are right. In the end Labour had to ship up activists from Newcastle and Liverpool to man the polls. This in a city where Labour hold full control of the council.

    The solid performance of BT in the Lib Dem areas is a relief and encouraging for retaining some of their seats next year. You also have to give credit to the Scottish Tories who showed a steel that is probably built from being under attack for many years.

  • rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    Gone to bed early to prepare for a conveniently arranged holiday starting tomorrow. My guess is you won't be hearing from him again in a hurry.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scotland goes er......Pop:

    Anonymous said...
    If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.

    September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM

    SNP POISON.

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    Believe me Southam there will be plenty of gloating when it comes to you and your predictions.
    And even more when it comes to those like Easteross who pretended to know how their fellow Scots were going to vote .
    Jack will get the plaudits but Mark you called the toast out weeks ago - fair play.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    I hope this isn't premature - God forgive me if it is - but it seems to me the loyal Brit voters, in Scotland, have emerged as a kind of silent majority. Uncowed, subdued, muted - and determined.

    And then they voted NO, in big big numbers.

    Yes. The result is going to be 60:40 or thereabouts, as I've always said.
    Will be amazed if Yes is as low as 40%

    I am sticking with 45.01% / 54.99%
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Salmond has cancelled plans to go to the Aberdeenshire count.

    He's hanging around in Edinburgh for the Victory Parade.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    That's a bit over the top.

    Need to respect individual's choices - he has every right to have his opinion even though I personally don't agree with him.
  • SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    I hope this isn't premature - God forgive me if it is - but it seems to me the loyal Brit voters, in Scotland, have emerged as a kind of silent majority. Uncowed, subdued, muted - and determined.

    And then they voted NO, in big big numbers.

    Yes. The result is going to be 60:40 or thereabouts, as I've always said.
    Hah! I can't remember the details of our bet (over 55% I buy the champagne, over 60% I buy dinner as well??) but it looks like you might be nearer than me (I predicted 47.3% YES).

    If this is the case (and we still haven't had a result yet!) then I would be UTTERLY FUCKING DELIGHTED to fulfil my obligations, and to be proved wrong.

    I'm off to Sicily on Sunday, for ten days, let's do this in October - IF we win.

    Sean, you still haven't sent me your bank details yet for our £25 indyref bet.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Anyone else think that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead, was probably the worst thing that happened to Yes Scotland?

    Came too soon, and gave an opportunity for Better Together to galvanise their vote and to made sure they came out to vote.

    If it is a no vote then I agree TSE. I said at the time that it was hard to see how the Yes campaign could get the fever pitch level up even more after that. I still think that we need the economy to turn down decisively (October 2015) before all the separation movements across Europe achieve their aims. Once one domino falls it will be a landslide.........
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
  • TGOHF said:

    Anyone else think that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead, was probably the worst thing that happened to Yes Scotland?

    Came too soon, and gave an opportunity for Better Together to galvanise their vote and to made sure they came out to vote.

    MI5 played a blinder !
    Heh
  • Scotland goes er......Pop:

    Anonymous said...
    If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.

    September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM

    SNP POISON.

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    Believe me Southam there will be plenty of gloating when it comes to you and your predictions.
    And even more when it comes to those like Easteross who pretended to know how their fellow Scots were going to vote .
    Some of us can already remember his 2010 predictions and his 2011 (10-12 Conservative Scottish constituency wins) predictions.
  • rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    I hope this isn't premature - God forgive me if it is - but it seems to me the loyal Brit voters, in Scotland, have emerged as a kind of silent majority. Uncowed, subdued, muted - and determined.

    And then they voted NO, in big big numbers.

    Yes. The result is going to be 60:40 or thereabouts, as I've always said.
    A very good call rcs and a resolute one too, just like JackW. Wasn't it also you who at the very instigation of betfair's turnout market, confidently predicted that this would exceed 75%, citing Quebec by way of comparision? - I remember Shadsy querying this in a state of disbelief.There was easy money to be made for a few hours!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    In a debriefing with his MI5 handlers.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    Some clarification required on PB jargon. I am aware of the meaning of 'tipping point' in Malcolm Gladwell or complex adaptive systems contexts, but what is its meaning on PB? Is it another way of saying 'jumping the shark'?

    Yep. Jumping the Shark is about right.
    Thanks, Fox
  • Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    @christopherhope 12m
    Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref


    Can he,I hope the English MP's have some balls for once and make sure the English are not screwed on the new deals for Scotland.
    Cameron will have to face UKIP in parliament after Oct. 9th, I expect resistance to Devomax will become another UKIP flagship policy.
    I agree - although I think it will be phrased more subtly as 'a fair deal for the whole UK'. It's resistance to *lopsided* Devomax that's will be popular.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanT Murray has a house in Surrey, but he spends most of his time in Miami!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    chestnut said:

    Brown's triumph?!? How many times have we heard that silliness?

    The outcome of a NO is that Cameron has allowed a referendum - and won. He's the great democrat. EU next.

    And, the Barnett formula and EV4EL have to be dealt with and changed, even with a Tory minority government.

    An absolute master class in tactics.

    On the assumption that No win then further devolution was always being offered. If Brown deserves credit it was to dress this up as 'home rule' before the process of determining what the devolution would be. A rather dubious credit.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    That's a bit over the top.

    Need to respect individual's choices - he has every right to have his opinion even though I personally don't agree with him.
    No. Someone with his position, wealth and responsibility - especially someone living in England, who won his most famous victory at the All England Tennis Club - owes England, and Britain, a little more loyalty than he has shown. Likewise his turning-point win was at the Olympics in London, as part of Team GB.

    I for one will find it difficult to cheer him from now on. My fellow Englishmen and women will probably be more charitable and forgiving, and that is part of their charm - as English people.

    Andy Murray should reflect on that.

    I'm sure he wont dare to express an opinion you disagree with ever again after tonight.

  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    If we are going to rebalance the constitutional settlement of the UK, that will take time. Rushing it will on create more problems. Labour rushed devolution back in 1997/8 and created a system they thought would mean the SNP would never win a majority. How wrong they were.

    Constitutional change cannot be rushed. Indeed it should never be rushed. Do it right, do it once.
  • An early indication that the yes campaign is braced for defeat?

    Scotland’s first minister, Alex Salmond, will be residing overnight at his home in the north east of Aberdeenshire, rather than coming to one of the referendum counts nearby.

    The fact that the SNP leader will not be going to the count for the council area which encompasses his constituency was being seen by some observers as an indicator that he expected the yes side to lose the referendum and was limiting his exposure tonight.

    One of Salmond’s staff told the Guardian as late as yesterday that the plan was that he would spend the day at his home in Strichen, go to the count before going on to Edinburgh in the morning so it does appear to be a change in plan.

    Salmond is expected to go to Edinburgh in the early morning, according to SNP sources. There is an SNP press conference scheduled for 10am on Friday in Edinburgh.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/18/scottish-referendum-results-live-coverage-of-the-independence-vote
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Might be wishful thinking on my part but Sky news was showing pics of one of the counts and the "yes" team did not look a happy bunch.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    My predictions of Yes at 43.x% and turnout at 89.x% (forget decimals) is looking quite good at the moment.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @JeremyCliffe: Senior Yes figures already planning to slate Salmond's lack of leadership. Sturgeon has let it be known she shares these gripes. #indyref
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Even on the reckoning of a "no" vote, we are getting well ahead of the curve.
    A lot those who backed "No" will have factored in Devo Max as part of their choice.
    All of our politicians will have to come up with something workable for the UK as a whole.
    All three promised, and only Farage will be able to put a spanner in the works, so they had all better get their arses in gear and do a bit of actual "governing"
  • For me, this referendum will be remembered for the way in which certain *cough* prominent PBers changed their minds again and again as regards the outcome.
  • Isn't JohnO, Andy Murray's councillor?

    Perhaps SeanT can have words with JohnO about a new special council tax band just for Andy Murray.
  • Anyone else think that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead, was probably the worst thing that happened to Yes Scotland?

    Came too soon, and gave an opportunity for Better Together to galvanise their vote and to made sure they came out to vote.

    It was the equivalent of Cleggmania.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    They've already said Draft Bill only.

    No way Cameron is going to risk a huge bust up / backbench rebellion 3 months before the GE.

    Despite all the excitement on here, it will largely fade out of the news until after the GE.
  • Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    @christopherhope 12m
    Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref

    If that is the result Devomax might be kicked into the long grass.
    Any attempt to break "The Vow" will go down about as well as a nuke over Edinburgh.

    If they want to ensure a Yes vote in 10-20 years time, they can break it by all means.
    And if British voters decide they don't want it? It can only be guaranteed by never putting it to a democratic test.

    Oh, I understand what you're saying, but the realpolitik is they have to get it through or face independence in the fairly near future. Breaking 'The Vow' would become a legendary event like the early introduction of the poll tax... It would fuel bad feeling for years and years to come, and the nationalists would have a ready-made campaign: "You trusted them one last time and they failed you. How can you ever trust them again?"
    I'm surprised the Scots trusted them. The "vow" cannot be guaranteed, as one Parliament cannot bind the next. The English (and Welsh and Nornirish) haven't been consulted, despite the fact that the Scots apparently have to be consulted on every aspect of devolution. We had the unedifying spectacle of Gordon Brown, a man expelled from office in 2010, standing on his hind legs offering the English birthright as a bribe to keep the Scots in the Union. They offered Barnett for ever, again without putting to the electorate. They have decided to deny democratic choice by all party leaders vowing to offer it at the next election.

    There is no need to fuel resentment, the position of the English might be "we don't want you that badly after all, goodbye".

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    There is genuine anger amongst several of my friends as the pathetic performance of BT campaign team in Glasgow. In Govan the locals had to make up their own banners as BT failed to deliver posters. While Yes brought in anyone it could find from the University BT virtually ignored them. The bloggers are right. In the end Labour had to ship up activists from Newcastle and Liverpool to man the polls. This in a city where Labour hold full control of the council.

    The solid performance of BT in the Lib Dem areas is a relief and encouraging for retaining some of their seats next year. You also have to give credit to the Scottish Tories who showed a steel that is probably built from being under attack for many years.

    I suspect that the sound performance of Scots Tories such as DavidL will give the party a boost for the May 2015 GE, with the SNP demoralised and LDs in the doldrums. I put a few quid on Ladbrokes seats markets on some potential Tory gains. There are still some attractive odds out there.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited September 2014
    Oh!

    Latest Betfair turnout

    75-80% 12-17.5
    80-85% 2.2-2.5
    85-90% 2.36-2.64
    90-95% 8.2-48



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    NickRobinson Nobody on Yes side told him they will win http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/104876/independence_referendum_live.html
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Gordon!

  • Anyone else think that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead, was probably the worst thing that happened to Yes Scotland?

    Came too soon, and gave an opportunity for Better Together to galvanise their vote and to made sure they came out to vote.

    It was the equivalent of Cleggmania.

    I might make a thread out of that, assuming No win.
  • For me, this referendum will be remembered for the way in which certain *cough* prominent PBers changed their minds again and again as regards the outcome.

    Yeah, the aftermath of the YouGov poll was hysterical.

    I had to tell some Unionists to sack up.
  • Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    That's a bit over the top.

    Need to respect individual's choices - he has every right to have his opinion even though I personally don't agree with him.
    No. Someone with his position, wealth and responsibility - especially someone living in England, who won his most famous victory at the All England Tennis Club - owes England, and Britain, a little more loyalty than he has shown. Likewise his turning-point win was at the Olympics in London, as part of Team GB.

    I for one will find it difficult to cheer him from now on. My fellow Englishmen and women will probably be more charitable and forgiving, and that is part of their charm - as English people.

    Andy Murray should reflect on that.

    I'm sure he wont dare to express an opinion you disagree with ever again after tonight.

    Don't worry He'll love him again in the morning.

  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227
    rcs1000 said:

    WHERE IS MALCOLMG?

    1. Sulking.
    2. Retired to the library with his service revolver.
    3. Getting a new user name.
    4. All 3 of the above.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    edited September 2014

    There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    If it's a Yes, I think we could be 100% certain that there would be.

    In any case, those you name - plus some others - have spent many months insulting anyone who had the temerity to express a view which, as things stand, appears to have been right.

    So, in the circumstances: let's have a healthy dose of gloating and triumphalism!

    Not my cup of tea, I'm afraid. When it's done it's done. If Yes loses they'll feel sick to the pits of their stomachs. That's enough.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    Isn't JohnO, Andy Murray's councillor?

    Perhaps SeanT can have words with JohnO about a new special council tax band just for Andy Murray.

    Andy is an Oxshott resident (I represent Hersham) but under the powers vested in me, exceptional measures will shortly be promulgated.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Is North Lanarkshire expected to be one of the most Yes-leaning?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    If we are going to rebalance the constitutional settlement of the UK, that will take time. Rushing it will on create more problems. Labour rushed devolution back in 1997/8 and created a system they thought would mean the SNP would never win a majority. How wrong they were.

    Constitutional change cannot be rushed. Indeed it should never be rushed. Do it right, do it once.
    We had two years of indy debate, so deserve a proper debate on devomax for all nations, and for these to get a democratic mandate in the manifestos in May 2015.
  • TGOHF said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Senior Yes figures already planning to slate Salmond's lack of leadership. Sturgeon has let it be known she shares these gripes. #indyref

    She is going to have to be very careful - she was front and centre of the campaign and really should go down with it.

    But then Harriet should have quit as Deputy Labour leader after her failure as Campaign Director for the 2010 Labour GE campaign - and she got away with it.
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    They've already said Draft Bill only.

    No way Cameron is going to risk a huge bust up / backbench rebellion 3 months before the GE.

    Despite all the excitement on here, it will largely fade out of the news until after the GE.
    Same Old Tories........
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO said:

    Isn't JohnO, Andy Murray's councillor?

    Perhaps SeanT can have words with JohnO about a new special council tax band just for Andy Murray.

    Andy is an Oxshott resident (I represent Hersham) but under the powers vested in me, exceptional measures will shortly be promulgated.
    Are you going to exile him to Bournemouth?
  • SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen. :)

    IOS said:

    Andy Murray should be applauded for taking a stand. I want No to win but no one should ever ever feel they can't express their political views.

    I approve of Andy Murray.

    Fuck Andy Murray. I will boo him at Wimbledon. He wanted to break up the UK, despite being a millionaire LIVING IN ENGLAND, despite the obvious economic chaos this break-up would cause, and the pain it would inflict on poor people. Nasty.

    Go home, Andy. Go home. Go home where you feel you "belong". Govan, Gorbals, who cares.

    That's a bit over the top.

    Need to respect individual's choices - he has every right to have his opinion even though I personally don't agree with him.
    No. Someone with his position, wealth and responsibility - especially someone living in England, who won his most famous victory at the All England Tennis Club - owes England, and Britain, a little more loyalty than he has shown. Likewise his turning-point win was at the Olympics in London, as part of Team GB.

    I for one will find it difficult to cheer him from now on. My fellow Englishmen and women will probably be more charitable and forgiving, and that is part of their charm - as English people.

    Andy Murray should reflect on that.

    He didn't even have the guts to come out a week or so to help the Yes campaign, he did it overnight so it missed the papers.

    Presumably he didn't want to upset his sponsors, if it was up to me he can pay for his own Robinsons Barley Water.
  • JohnO said:

    Isn't JohnO, Andy Murray's councillor?

    Perhaps SeanT can have words with JohnO about a new special council tax band just for Andy Murray.

    Andy is an Oxshott resident (I represent Hersham) but under the powers vested in me, exceptional measures will shortly be promulgated.
    Excellent.
  • There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    If it's a Yes, I think we could be 100% certain that there would be.

    In any case, those you name - plus some others - have spent many months insulting anyone who had the temerity to express a view which, as things stand, appears to have been right.

    So, in the circumstances: let's have a healthy dose of gloating and triumphalism!

    Not my cup of tea, I'm afraid. When it's done it's done. If Yes loses they'll feel sick to the pits of their stomachs. That's enough.

    Spoilsport! Won't we even be able to talk about the Triumph of the Turnips?
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    If we are going to rebalance the constitutional settlement of the UK, that will take time. Rushing it will on create more problems. Labour rushed devolution back in 1997/8 and created a system they thought would mean the SNP would never win a majority. How wrong they were.

    Constitutional change cannot be rushed. Indeed it should never be rushed. Do it right, do it once.
    We had two years of indy debate, so deserve a proper debate on devomax for all nations, and for these to get a democratic mandate in the manifestos in May 2015.
    We can start the process, start having those conversations - but it has to be spot on before we institute a radical change like devomax.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @rosschawkins: Lib Dems confirm Portsmouth S MP Mike Hancock has resigned from the party
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Biggest winner in the event of a No is going to be Nigel Farage.

    He's going to whip up a hoolie over the preferential treatment being dished out to the Scots.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Didn't hear clearly but I THINK someone said on BBC Scotland that the Queen will make a statement in the morning (whatever the result).
  • Now here's a machiavellian idea.

    Kill the Barnett formula and cut spending on Scotland.

    Fury in Scotland and brutal war between Labour and the SNP all to the advantage of the English Conservatives.

    By the time the SNP get another independence referendum organised there will be even less oil left.
  • There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.

    If it's a Yes, I think we could be 100% certain that there would be.

    In any case, those you name - plus some others - have spent many months insulting anyone who had the temerity to express a view which, as things stand, appears to have been right.

    So, in the circumstances: let's have a healthy dose of gloating and triumphalism!

    Not my cup of tea, I'm afraid. When it's done it's done. If Yes loses they'll feel sick to the pits of their stomachs. That's enough.

    Spoilsport! Won't we even be able to talk about the Triumph of the Turnips?

    Stop!!!

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TGOHF said:

    @rosschawkins: Lib Dems confirm Portsmouth S MP Mike Hancock has resigned from the party

    About time!
  • Nick Robinson sounding very much like he's been briefed that Cameron is going to come out in favour of English devolution.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Neil said:

    JohnO said:

    Isn't JohnO, Andy Murray's councillor?

    Perhaps SeanT can have words with JohnO about a new special council tax band just for Andy Murray.

    Andy is an Oxshott resident (I represent Hersham) but under the powers vested in me, exceptional measures will shortly be promulgated.
    Are you going to exile him to Bournemouth?
    Platform 3.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Steven Hope? Tweets expects North Lanarkshire to be 52 - 48 YES. If so it is relatively good for YES - but not good enough.
  • MikeL said:

    Big No win will take a bit of pressure off Cameron re Devomax.

    Also remember the plan is only to publish a DRAFT BILL by end of January - there isn't going to be any vote in the House of Commons before the GE.

    I think that would be an epic mistake. Parliament has little enough else to do between now and April: there is more than enough time to sort it out if the will is there - and if they don't, Scots will rightly conclude that the will isn't there. It will be shades of the 1979 'betrayal' all over again except that this time there's a general election a after parliament's had time to act rather than before.
    The leaders only agreed to publish a bill. They can't guarantee how MPs will vote. Or do you believe that Parliament is somehow bound by a private agreement made by three of its members?

This discussion has been closed.