@TheScreamingEagles Not a Tories chance in Govan. "Yes" and "No" are pretty well sick of it, and would lynch anyone who suggested it in the next 30 years.
davidthe consays - ''Don't forget at least 40-45% of the Scottish population will hold a massive grudge''
Well no. You could argue about a third of that is just idealistic (Scotlands history is of an independent country joining a larger one - with which it shared a monarch in a union) and a third plain misguided and too young to think straight whilst a third, of the 45%, are maybe anti English bigots. But in return for that we see lots of spoutings from anti Scottish bigots. All pretty pathetic really.
Britain Elects @britainelects 10m We only tweet credible rumours. If they fit in with the psephological estimates, we'll tweet. If the rumours are tosh, we won't.
I am just glad that we will get a decision at long last. And unless someone does something really stupid. I will never have to hear the sodding argument again.
Don't count on it. If it's a no tonight I'd put money on their being another vote in the next 30 years or so.
I'll be dead or senile, I won't give a monkeys either way.
Sooner than that. The last one was 17 years ago, then 18 years before that....
Say what you like about the left, but they are superb at generating myths. Brown had virtually no impact in reality. How many polls were yes ahead in prior to his speech? How many after his speech? No were always going to win.
Agree,so some on here thinks brown speech changed thousands of votes,get real.
And it is what people on here think that is really important in shaping how history views this.
I don't deny that Brown had an impact - but I suspect it is currently being overstated. And as I have said many times, if the Labour team at the heart of the No campaign hadn't made such a hash of it, it would never have got so close.
Private Eye point the finger of blame at Better Together's 'New Labour' campaign director, claiming that their Glasgow HQ was bailed out by a Downing Street organised 'business onslaught'.
When involving a New Labour man in a campaign post 1997 has resulted in people liking them?
Say what you like about the left, but they are superb at generating myths. Brown had virtually no impact in reality. How many polls were yes ahead in prior to his speech? How many after his speech? No were always going to win.
Agree,so some on here thinks brown speech changed thousands of votes,get real.
And it is what people on here think that is really important in shaping how history views this.
I don't deny that Brown had an impact - but I suspect it is currently being overstated. And as I have said many times, if the Labour team at the heart of the No campaign hadn't made such a hash of it, it would never have got so close.
Private Eye point the finger of blame at Better Together's 'New Labour' campaign director, claiming that their Glasgow HQ was bailed out by a Downing Street organised 'business onslaught'.
It has just been pointed out to me that my turnout figures will be excluding the postal votes. The area I was in was probably "older" than average. Maybe there was more postals?
I am just glad that we will get a decision at long last. And unless someone does something really stupid. I will never have to hear the sodding argument again.
I really don't want to engage with you tonight Smarmy,
But the SNP will probably win the next holyrood - and it will be on the agenda within the decade.
You can buy me a pint if I ever meet you for this information.
There is no fucking way the Scots will want to go through this for 20 years. Plus, within a decade yer oil's gone.
Sorry.
I'm being all PB tonight and feeling the need to confirm my call - I reckon within the decade, at the least 20.
I am just glad that we will get a decision at long last. And unless someone does something really stupid. I will never have to hear the sodding argument again.
Don't count on it. If it's a no tonight I'd put money on their being another vote in the next 30 years or so.
I'll be dead or senile, I won't give a monkeys either way.
Sooner than that. The last one was 17 years ago, then 18 years before that....
Say what you like about the left, but they are superb at generating myths. Brown had virtually no impact in reality. How many polls were yes ahead in prior to his speech? How many after his speech? No were always going to win.
Agree,so some on here thinks brown speech changed thousands of votes,get real.
And it is what people on here think that is really important in shaping how history views this.
I don't deny that Brown had an impact - but I suspect it is currently being overstated. And as I have said many times, if the Labour team at the heart of the No campaign hadn't made such a hash of it, it would never have got so close.
Private Eye point the finger of blame at Better Together's 'New Labour' campaign director, claiming that their Glasgow HQ was bailed out by a Downing Street organised 'business onslaught'.
Yup the polls turned in favour of No when the Tory big business cronies turned up to the fight and scared off women and enough younger voters. I don't think the devo-max offer really shifted too many votes.
After DavidL's posts in previous threads it's surprising that Sky is reporting a 90% turnout in Dundee.
Yes that is really weird. It is possible that turnout was very high in certain areas but as I say the polling station I was at was pretty typical. May have had a slightly higher student population than some but not as big as others.
My guess is that turnout forecasts will edge down from current projections but if that is going to happen it should happen soon.
No doubt that SW London client of Hills will be round at the betting shop in the morning with his over-size wheelbarrow. (Btw in case you were wondering, it wasn't me!)
Yup the polls turned in favour of No when the Tory big business cronies turned up to the fight and scared off women and enough younger voters. I don't think the devo-max offer really shifted too many votes.
The polls never turned in favour of NO, they had a huge lead a few months ago and it got whittled down.
FIVE STEPS TO A NEW UK CONSTITUTION. 1.Devo Max powers(hereafter called domestic powers) agreed for Scotland. 2.Same (domestic ) powers devolved to English, Welsh and Northern Ireland Parliaments. 3 Agreement that MP’s can only vote in their own Parliaments. 4.Small elected second chamber for non domestic UK issues such as defense ,foreign affairs, financial security, UK transport infrastructure. 5.English parliament decides on plan for devolution of powers to local government.
I am just glad that we will get a decision at long last. And unless someone does something really stupid. I will never have to hear the sodding argument again.
I really don't want to engage with you tonight Smarmy,
But the SNP will probably win the next holyrood - and it will be on the agenda within the decade.
You can buy me a pint if I ever meet you for this information.
There is no fucking way the Scots will want to go through this for 20 years. Plus, within a decade yer oil's gone.
Sorry.
Indeed
This is prime territory for nats
scot nat government millionaire backers still some oil meh central government crap unionist politicians naive electorate nats set all the questions
Say what you like about the left, but they are superb at generating myths. Brown had virtually no impact in reality. How many polls were yes ahead in prior to his speech? How many after his speech? No were always going to win.
Agree,so some on here thinks brown speech changed thousands of votes,get real.
And it is what people on here think that is really important in shaping how history views this.
I don't deny that Brown had an impact - but I suspect it is currently being overstated. And as I have said many times, if the Labour team at the heart of the No campaign hadn't made such a hash of it, it would never have got so close.
Private Eye point the finger of blame at Better Together's 'New Labour' campaign director, claiming that their Glasgow HQ was bailed out by a Downing Street organised 'business onslaught'.
Yup the polls turned in favour of No when the Tory big business cronies turned up to the fight and scared off women and enough younger voters. I don't think the devo-max offer really shifted too many votes.
Yeah cus the young ones love business cronies.
No but they do want jobs working for high profile multinationals,
Say what you like about the left, but they are superb at generating myths. Brown had virtually no impact in reality. How many polls were yes ahead in prior to his speech? How many after his speech? No were always going to win.
Agree,so some on here thinks brown speech changed thousands of votes,get real.
And it is what people on here think that is really important in shaping how history views this.
I don't deny that Brown had an impact - but I suspect it is currently being overstated. And as I have said many times, if the Labour team at the heart of the No campaign hadn't made such a hash of it, it would never have got so close.
Private Eye point the finger of blame at Better Together's 'New Labour' campaign director, claiming that their Glasgow HQ was bailed out by a Downing Street organised 'business onslaught'.
Yup the polls turned in favour of No when the Tory big business cronies turned up to the fight and scared off women and enough younger voters. I don't think the devo-max offer really shifted too many votes.
It's been a case study in how dirty a referendum on the UK leaving the EU would be.
I am just glad that we will get a decision at long last. And unless someone does something really stupid. I will never have to hear the sodding argument again.
I really don't want to engage with you tonight Smarmy,
But the SNP will probably win the next holyrood - and it will be on the agenda within the decade.
You can buy me a pint if I ever meet you for this information.
There is no fucking way the Scots will want to go through this for 20 years. Plus, within a decade yer oil's gone.
Sorry.
Indeed
This is prime territory for nats
scot nat government millionaire backers still some oil meh central government crap unionist politicians naive electorate nats set all the questions
I actually wept when I saw that last night. And this from someone whose first post on PB.com was to slag the man off mercilessly. If the result is No then I'm prepared to forget about the gold sell-off thing.
Some bloke in the FT in 2011: The continued run of the gold price is a global investment sensation. Recently it broke the $1,500 an ounce barrier for the first time, 30 per cent higher than a year ago. Surely this lays bare the extraordinary foolishness of Gordon Brown’s announcement, 12 years ago this week, that the UK Treasury would sell off some of Britain’s gold holdings?
Actually, no. On this one occasion, Mr Brown’s decision was the right one.
Why weren't the Tories smart enough to sell the gold off in about 1980-1982 when it was $700?
It was a very quick spike high at $875 in January 1980, in fact the price doubled from being at $400 in early November. And I expect a similar blowoff top in gold at a bit over $5,000 as a hedge against the global sovereign debt crisis which should start in earnest from October next year. Governments follow the people, the mass sentiment on markets is always wrong. You won't find one example in history where government has sold oil / gold or some other commodity reserves at a market top. It just doesn't work out that way once you understand how mass sentiment and markets work!
Say what you like about the left, but they are superb at generating myths. Brown had virtually no impact in reality. How many polls were yes ahead in prior to his speech? How many after his speech? No were always going to win.
Agree,so some on here thinks brown speech changed thousands of votes,get real.
And it is what people on here think that is really important in shaping how history views this.
I don't deny that Brown had an impact - but I suspect it is currently being overstated. And as I have said many times, if the Labour team at the heart of the No campaign hadn't made such a hash of it, it would never have got so close.
Private Eye point the finger of blame at Better Together's 'New Labour' campaign director, claiming that their Glasgow HQ was bailed out by a Downing Street organised 'business onslaught'.
Yup the polls turned in favour of No when the Tory big business cronies turned up to the fight and scared off women and enough younger voters. I don't think the devo-max offer really shifted too many votes.
Yeah cus the young ones love business cronies - you're a twat Max.
No but they do want jobs working for high profile multinationals wanker.
Well apparently they were voting No from the start - which I found a bit strange - if you can't be a nationalist when you're young when can you be??
Multinational just means more than one country - Briskin For The Lurkers!!!!!!
Prof John Curtice: Postal vote turnouts - as of this morning 95% in East Lothian had been returned, 93% in South Ayrshire & 95% in Dumfries
If all the postal returns are similar then maybe the odds of a +90% overall turnout look appealing?
Postal vote turnout is always higher than on the day. It's composed of people who cared enough to apply for a postal ballot in case they were away of otherwise unable to vote.
It has just been pointed out to me that my turnout figures will be excluding the postal votes. The area I was in was probably "older" than average. Maybe there was more postals?
@DavidL - Cheers for all your effort during the campaign, well done Sir.
@christopherhope 12m Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref
If that is the result Devomax might be kicked into the long grass. In 10 years the oil will run out, if they can just hold down the SNP for another 10 years it will be game over for scottish independence.
Absolutely spot on with that comment. I feel sad that Andy Murray didn't feel able to declare his own view until after last night's newspapers had been put to bed. And yes, that is why I think that he held off with that tweet until the wee hours of this morning. Andy Murray should have felt as comfortable as anyone else in the media spotlight when it came to declaring for a Yes or No, he is not the Queen.
Say what you like about the left, but they are superb at generating myths. Brown had virtually no impact in reality. How many polls were yes ahead in prior to his speech? How many after his speech? No were always going to win.
Agree,so some on here thinks brown speech changed thousands of votes,get real.
And it is what people on here think that is really important in shaping how history views this.
I don't deny that Brown had an impact - but I suspect it is currently being overstated. And as I have said many times, if the Labour team at the heart of the No campaign hadn't made such a hash of it, it would never have got so close.
Private Eye point the finger of blame at Better Together's 'New Labour' campaign director, claiming that their Glasgow HQ was bailed out by a Downing Street organised 'business onslaught'.
Yup the polls turned in favour of No when the Tory big business cronies turned up to the fight and scared off women and enough younger voters. I don't think the devo-max offer really shifted too many votes.
It's been a case study in how dirty a referendum on the UK leaving the EU would be.
The difference being that all the deals and subsidies Big business has gleaned from Brussels will be fair game as well. Yes the BBC will be spinning its rotten Europhile heart out but the electorate will be reminded again and again and again how much money it has taken from Brussels.
The other point is that if we withdraw from the EU very little will change. We'll have our monarchy, our currency, our government, our borders, our memberships of other international organisations etc etc. We would still be one of the biggest economic powers in the world and one of the biggest military powers.
The In campaign compared to the Better Together campaign has only a tiny amount of leverage and scaremongering material with which to use against the Out campaign and when boiled down all it will tell us is that the In campaign don't believe in the British people sufficiently to believe they could not overcome the comparatively small (when compared to Scottish Independence) short term challenges that might present themselves on withdrawal.
I hope this isn't premature - God forgive me if it is - but it seems to me the loyal Brit voters, in Scotland, have emerged as a kind of silent majority. Uncowed, subdued, muted - and determined.
And then they voted NO, in big big numbers.
Come on, give us at least one trademark wobble to keep us going until the results come in!
Isn't it crazy that nobody watching BBC1 has a clue that it's 90%+ certain that No has won.
Just endless general waffle.
They're refusing to even acknowledge the YouGov poll. I think they're sulking because their thunder was stolen.
Well first off Yes may have won, I hope not but its posible. But if (if) the polls and the stats are indicating a strong possibility of No winning then this really goes against the ideal media narrative where everything is on a knife edge (''keep tuned in!'' etc) and there may be a cataclysm (''keep tuned in and listen to my smug critisisms''). The media need everything to go wrong and never right the media need conflict. So its no surprise that they will take one poll which show Yes with a possibility and ignore the others which show them losing. I would also suggest that the media are pretty incapable of looking beyond their own headlines when it comes to actually analysing a poll.
RUMOURS of postal votes in the Edinburgh West area being: YES - 23% NO - 77%
Poatal votes ARE NOT COUNTED SEPARATELY. The Counting Officers in each of the 32 areas verify the signature and date of birth for the postal voter and they are then added to the ballot papers cast today.
PS individual counting areas will couint the total number of vates cast and release turnout figures before sorting into Yes/No/Doubtful and making a count of each.
Just watching the BBC Scotland coverage - according to the Glasgow reporter turnout in deprived areas such as Castlemilk and Drumchapel is 64% - 70%. Now, this is higher than usual, but when you compare it to 90% plus turnout in strong No areas then this points to a advantage towards 'No'.
Some clarification required on PB jargon. I am aware of the meaning of 'tipping point' in Malcolm Gladwell or complex adaptive systems contexts, but what is its meaning on PB? Is it another way of saying 'jumping the shark'?
Just watching the BBC Scotland coverage - according to the Glasgow reporter turnout in deprived areas such as Castlemilk and Drumchapel is 64% - 70%. Now, this is higher than usual, but when you compare it to 90% plus turnout in strong No areas then this points to a advantage towards 'No'.
Apparently Morris in bed - Welcome to PB Dougie!!!
@christopherhope 12m Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref
If correct, there's money to be made by backing the 40% - 45% Yes Band with Betfair, where the price is currently around 2/1 net. The above 43% prediction is nicely mid-band providing a little leeway therefore. DYOR.
Some clarification required on PB jargon. I am aware of the meaning of 'tipping point' in Malcolm Gladwell or complex adaptive systems contexts, but what is its meaning on PB? Is it another way of saying 'jumping the shark'?
His influence has been critical in keeping the Union together.
Not critical - but also not negligible.
Why didn't he get involved in a more prominent role earlier in the process?
Why did his Labour colleagues make such a hash of the No campaign?
There are many factors that may have contributed to a No win (if indeed that is what happens) - Brown is one of them but the work done to bring the business community out in support of the Union and thus refocus attention on the economic impact of independence is also going to have had a lot of influence.
Just don't exaggerate Brown's role in all this - it only makes you look foolish.
Anonymous said... If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.
September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM
SNP POISON.
There are always morons. James, Mick Pork and the rest of them have put their hearts and souls into something about which they care deeply. If it is a No, I hope there's no gloating or triumphalism.
Comments
If UK stays then 18 years seems like a reasonable timeframe.
Not a Tories chance in Govan. "Yes" and "No" are pretty well sick of it, and would lynch anyone who suggested it in the next 30 years.
http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php
Its as good as anywhere.
Kirsty Wark showing her pro-Labour bias on Newsnight with lavish praise of Gordon Brown - aaaaaarrrrrgggghhhh!
Well no. You could argue about a third of that is just idealistic (Scotlands history is of an independent country joining a larger one - with which it shared a monarch in a union) and a third plain misguided and too young to think straight whilst a third, of the 45%, are maybe anti English bigots.
But in return for that we see lots of spoutings from anti Scottish bigots. All pretty pathetic really.
We only tweet credible rumours. If they fit in with the psephological estimates, we'll tweet. If the rumours are tosh, we won't.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/gordon-browns-barnstorming-speech-in-defence-of-the-union/
Yes won the ground war my Arse! You don't win a ground war on the fecking twitter!
Cant see any point cashing out on No to win.
I am less sure about 45.01 to 50%.
Tempted to take 18% profit but also would love to leave it as pretty confident 2.3 was a cracking bet on this band
Prof John Curtice: Postal vote turnouts - as of this morning 95% in East Lothian had been returned, 93% in South Ayrshire & 95% in Dumfries
(Btw in case you were wondering, it wasn't me!)
Me too, Huw, me too.
Are there no exit polls on turn out?
Reminded that YouGov were 14% out at the last referendum (AV)
Mark White @skymarkwhite 9s
“@SkyAndyHughes: 89.6% turnout in Edinburgh” Incredible #indyref
FIVE STEPS TO A NEW UK CONSTITUTION.
1.Devo Max powers(hereafter called domestic powers) agreed for Scotland.
2.Same (domestic ) powers devolved to English, Welsh and Northern Ireland Parliaments.
3 Agreement that MP’s can only vote in their own Parliaments.
4.Small elected second chamber for non domestic UK issues such as defense ,foreign affairs, financial security, UK transport infrastructure.
5.English parliament decides on plan for devolution of powers to local government.
This is prime territory for nats
scot nat government
millionaire backers
still some oil
meh central government
crap unionist politicians
naive electorate
nats set all the questions
How can it get better ?
It's been a case study in how dirty a referendum on the UK leaving the EU would be.
Multinational just means more than one country - Briskin For The Lurkers!!!!!!
The poll wasn't even an exit poll anyway.
I think BF double-counts anyway, so that was probably all mine. I also laid more under 7. All in about £200 laid at ~5.5.
Anyway, I've rebacked now at ~45/1.
Quite a ridiculous market spasm....
(issajoke?)
DavidL, get yourself on the candidates list, you'd be a great candidate.
Only if you think he was an agent provocateur !!
I find that interesting, possibly hubristic, but interesting.
I'm still not counting any chickens, though.
In 10 years the oil will run out, if they can just hold down the SNP for another 10 years it will be game over for scottish independence.
Brave and courageous twitter post from Andy Murray 22 hours ago. That took some guts. He could have bottled it and didn't - well done Andy!
His influence has been critical in keeping the Union together.
Can he,I hope the English MP's have some balls for once and make sure the English are not screwed on the new deals for Scotland.
If they want to ensure a Yes vote in 10-20 years time, they can break it by all means.
The other point is that if we withdraw from the EU very little will change. We'll have our monarchy, our currency, our government, our borders, our memberships of other international organisations etc etc. We would still be one of the biggest economic powers in the world and one of the biggest military powers.
The In campaign compared to the Better Together campaign has only a tiny amount of leverage and scaremongering material with which to use against the Out campaign and when boiled down all it will tell us is that the In campaign don't believe in the British people sufficiently to believe they could not overcome the comparatively small (when compared to Scottish Independence) short term challenges that might present themselves on withdrawal.
The media need everything to go wrong and never right the media need conflict. So its no surprise that they will take one poll which show Yes with a possibility and ignore the others which show them losing.
I would also suggest that the media are pretty incapable of looking beyond their own headlines when it comes to actually analysing a poll.
Just watching the BBC Scotland coverage - according to the Glasgow reporter turnout in deprived areas such as Castlemilk and Drumchapel is 64% - 70%. Now, this is higher than usual, but when you compare it to 90% plus turnout in strong No areas then this points to a advantage towards 'No'.
Anonymous said...
If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.
September 18, 2014 at 11:02 PM
SNP POISON.
Agree. We as politicos want *everyone* to be actively expressing their views!
Apparently Morris in bed - Welcome to PB Dougie!!!
Sorry - to clarify earlier Tweet. Senior No campaign source says 57pc No, 43pc yes. David Cameron can sleep again. #indyref
If correct, there's money to be made by backing the 40% - 45% Yes Band with Betfair, where the price is currently around 2/1 net. The above 43% prediction is nicely mid-band providing a little leeway therefore.
DYOR.
Why didn't he get involved in a more prominent role earlier in the process?
Why did his Labour colleagues make such a hash of the No campaign?
There are many factors that may have contributed to a No win (if indeed that is what happens) - Brown is one of them but the work done to bring the business community out in support of the Union and thus refocus attention on the economic impact of independence is also going to have had a lot of influence.
Just don't exaggerate Brown's role in all this - it only makes you look foolish.
Betfair are currently
80-85% 3.2-3.5
85-90% 2.04-2.12
90-95% 5.1-5.5
I backed a value bet that was likely to lose. Such will be my epitaph.