Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
Dorries-Mogg dream ticket.
That would certainly be the preferred ticket from the point of view of Labour/Plaid/SNP......
It’s obvious here he wins the actual vote, makes it a no brainier how to bet - but a simple 1 vote win doesn’t define win very clearly does it. In fact the real win/lose number we couldn’t define with all our PB collective intelligence?
Anything upward of 130 against is a clear Boris defeat?
Probably. I think at least 130 will vote against him.
135-160 against him A fatal wound, where the animal runs away from view still alive but soon dies?
The reason we can’t have exact number to tell the potency of blow is because of abstentions?
I think Boris will temporarily survive tonight - but with enough voting against him (160 is my prediction) that would be fatally wounding for any normal/rational person - but he will bluster on ...and on...and on... and drag this charade out for another month before being kicked out anyway. More popcorn needed
All this talk of potential successors just underlines how Boris hollowed out the Conservative party. There is no strong cabinet successor. There is no new strand of Conservative thinking waiting in the wings to set out a new direction.
The cabinet rivals are deliberately very weak and the populist stuff has drowned out the intellectuals, half of whom were sacked.
Boris has prepared well for this moment.
Although to be fair a couple of the most promising potential successors hollowed out themselves without Boris having to do anything.
Did you hear her Global Britain nonsense? She's the Leaver's Leaver. She makes Leon sound balanced. She'd be f*ing awful which means she'll probably win. At least she'd get rid of JRM and Patel.
But push me and I say he'll lose it. Once it's in the air that it's possible it becomes a bit of a don't push the red button situation.
A bit like the Brexit vote. Shit you mean if we vote this way we get to choose on this issue? That seems too good an opportunity to pass up.
I think he’ll either a) win it so narrowly that it will essentially do for him or b) surprise loss.
I don’t see this being a minor rebellion that he will comfortably see off. There’s too many Tories having come forward this morning complaining about the PM to suggest this is all going to slip away quietly with a vote of 55-70.
Current guess is anywhere from 120-190 against.
Agree but still think he might lose it.
Is a majority of the PCP really thinking that he is the only leader guaranteed to win us the next GE? Can't see it.
Worst result for the Tories is a narrow Johnson win, followed by the customary brazen arrogance as JRM tours the airwaves slagging off half the parliamentary party while telling the public it's time to draw a line and move on. Meanwhile half the population finds itself overdrawn by mid month as month 3 of galactic energy bills, diesel edging up to £2 and the irritation of thousands of cancelled flights really start to bite. That's the route to big losses on the 23rd and a 15%+ national polling deficit with the Lib Dems up to 16%.
There is no way he loses tonight which is, for those who want a change of Government next election, the optimum scenario. Partygate isn't an issue with the electorate anymore because people have made their minds up. By backing him the PCP will be seen to be as out of touch with the public as he is.
It’s obvious here he wins the actual vote, makes it a no brainier how to bet - but a simple 1 vote win doesn’t define win very clearly does it. In fact the real win/lose number we couldn’t define with all our PB collective intelligence?
Anything upward of 130 against is a clear Boris defeat?
Probably. I think at least 130 will vote against him.
135-160 against him A fatal wound, where the animal runs away from view still alive but soon dies?
The reason we can’t have exact number to tell the potency of blow is because of abstentions?
Usually there are very few, if any, abstentions in these Tory leadership votes.
All this talk of potential successors just underlines how Boris hollowed out the Conservative party. There is no strong cabinet successor. There is no new strand of Conservative thinking waiting in the wings to set out a new direction.
The cabinet rivals are deliberately very weak and the populist stuff has drowned out the intellectuals, half of whom were sacked.
Boris has prepared well for this moment.
Although to be fair a couple of the most promising potential successors hollowed out themselves without Boris having to do anything.
Boris appointed flawed characters (Truss) to senior positions and if one gets above their station (Sunak, Javid) he used his press chums to cut them down to size.
What's left is a mess. They need William Hague (or as near as damn it).
I think Boris will temporarily survive tonight - but with enough voting against him (160 is my prediction) that would be fatally wounding for any normal/rational person - but he will bluster on ...and on...and on... and drag this charade out for another month before being kicked out anyway. More popcorn needed
You think the rebels will be back after the loss of the two by-elections then?
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
She's got big-time military credentials,.
Why is this important?
It's not even true. She is a S/Lt(Acting) in the RNR which means she has crossed Portsmouth Harbour in a P2000.
She's the daughter of a para, grew up in a military home, is a Royal Navy reservist and is even named after a navy ship. She was Defence Secretary, represents a very military minded constituency and is constantly doing things in and around military and defence matters - today being another example.
It matters because she's far more authentic to the red wall voters than Boris would ever be.
Anyway, I've said quite enough about her. I want a Labour Government, no matter how much I admire her.
I agree that Mordaunt is an interesting one, and far from typical centre-left reasons of my most regular perspective. There's some sense that she has had more of a struggle to get where she is than many modern politicians, but also displays some more human, and arguably also more optimally female qualities than many others ; some signs of a specifically female kind of emotional intelligence alongside the steeliness. Angela Rayner and Lisa Nandy show some signs of the same combination of obstacles overcome and this more emotionally capable aspect, I think, too.
As someone who will vote Labour next time, I don't want a Tory victory and think she might make it more likely, but I still think she's a better candidate - and possibly person - than several others.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Brown didn't have it, he tried to cling on after losing in 2010.
All this talk of potential successors just underlines how Boris hollowed out the Conservative party. There is no strong cabinet successor. There is no new strand of Conservative thinking waiting in the wings to set out a new direction.
The cabinet rivals are deliberately very weak and the populist stuff has drowned out the intellectuals, half of whom were sacked.
Boris has prepared well for this moment.
Considering some his supporters think it is literally treachery to go against him, the implication he's like a dictator who keeps the army weak so it cannot challenge him, but keeping the party and cabinet weak, is not as silly as it should be.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Brown didn't have it, he tried to cling on after losing in 2010.
Brown can take a lot of flak, but not that. His constitutional duty was to stay in office until it was clear that someone could form a government. As soon as that was clear, he left.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
Dorries-Mogg dream ticket.
That would certainly be the preferred ticket from the point of view of Labour/Plaid/SNP......
Tories thought that about Corbyn until 2017, even if he was eventually clearly beaten in 2019
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
Brady's a fair umpire, nixxes a potential plan "Let Mogg take care of your proxy vote"...
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
She's got big-time military credentials,.
Why is this important?
It's not even true. She is a S/Lt(Acting) in the RNR which means she has crossed Portsmouth Harbour in a P2000.
She's the daughter of a para, grew up in a military home, is a Royal Navy reservist and is even named after a navy ship. She was Defence Secretary, represents a very military minded constituency and is constantly doing things in and around military and defence matters - today being another example.
It matters because she's far more authentic to the red wall voters than Boris would ever be.
Anyway, I've said quite enough about her. I want a Labour Government, no matter how much I admire her.
I agree that Mordaunt is an interesting one, and far from typical centre-left reasons of my most regular perspective. There's some sense that she has had more of a struggle to get where she she is than many modern politicians, but also displays some more human, and arguably also female in the best sense qualities, than many others ; some signs of a specifically female kind of emotional intelligence alongside the steeliness. Angela Rayner and Lisa Nandy have some hints of the same thing, too.
As someone who will vote Labour next time, I don't want a Tory victory and think she might make it more likely, but I still think she's a better candidate - and possibly person - than several others.
It would be hilarious if the Conservatives got their *third* female PM whilst Labour have not even managed to have a female leader (*).
(*) Yes, I am not including 'acting' leaders, so Beckett and Harman do not count.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
Oh the laughs if Team Johnson void all their own supporters votes by demanding they try and take a sneaky photo!
Speaker has granted three UQs today @RachelReevesMP on North Sea oil and gas producers use of investment allowances; @IanByrneMP on problems arising at the Champions League Final on 28 May in Paris and Fiona Bruce on the killing of church worshippers in Ondo State Nigeria
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Quite so. Boris is actually not that bad as PM, per se
Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS
That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?
Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops
Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere
One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
Rubbish, you are deluded if you think the Tory membership will elect anyone who is not as pro hard a Brexit as Johnson if not more so.
That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing
I’m DELUDED to see continued Brexit fault line in voters, MPs and party members, and deluded suspecting the new non Boris government may cuddle up to business again post Boris and tweak the current Brexit deal accordingly? 🙂
It won't as Tory members will not elect a leader who wants to align to EU regulations again and certainly not one who would restore free movement.
Let’s be clear what you are saying, because you are not being clear. None of the platforms laid out in the leadership election will look for improvements in current Brexit deal to help British business prosper and grow the economy? Or that some candidates will phrase it just like this, but then get splendidly rejected by MPs and Party Members for not swearing loyalty to keep Boris Brexit deal unscathed?
So the Tory party remains at distance from Businesses and businesses needs? it remains ravaged in Remainia voting areas where it now cannot compete?
You still think I’m deluded for thinking Brexit plays a part in this?
👀 A Tory MP on Govt payroll: “I think it’s going to be far, far closer than many people expect. If the PM does worse than TMay [who won vote by 63%], it’s curtains...
All very interesting. What remains is a bit of a mystery - with everyone expecting Boris to win.
Everyone knows that a Boris win won't close down anything ar all - the matter remains hot until he goes. His position is not recoverable. All Tory MPs know that.
So what is the reasoning, however defective, behind voting for him to stay in terms of either personal or collective Tory interest?
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
Brady's a fair umpire, nixxes a potential plan "Let Mogg take care of your proxy vote"...
Starting to wonder whether 10% is a bit on the low side.
I think Boris will temporarily survive tonight - but with enough voting against him (160 is my prediction) that would be fatally wounding for any normal/rational person - but he will bluster on ...and on...and on... and drag this charade out for another month before being kicked out anyway. More popcorn needed
Possibly, yes. I agree there’s no way back. There’s no way that Johnson isn’t wounded. Maybe he limps on for a while longer, but how do you fight an election when x% of your own MPs don’t have confidence in you, where x is not small.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
Oh the laughs if Team Johnson void all their own supporters votes by demanding they try and take a sneaky photo!
Crosses my mind whether Team Johnson is sufficiently nefarious to leak some (faked) photos of opponents' ballot papers to get those voided?
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
Rubbish, you are deluded if you think the Tory membership will elect anyone who is not as pro hard a Brexit as Johnson if not more so.
That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing
I’m DELUDED to see continued Brexit fault line in voters, MPs and party members, and deluded suspecting the new non Boris government may cuddle up to business again post Boris and tweak the current Brexit deal accordingly? 🙂
It won't as Tory members will not elect a leader who wants to align to EU regulations again and certainly not one who would restore free movement.
Let’s be clear what you are saying, because you are not being clear. None of the platforms laid out in the leadership election will look for improvements in current Brexit deal to help British business prosper and grow the economy? Or that some candidates will phrase it just like this, but then get splendidly rejected by MPs and Party Members for not swearing loyalty to keep Boris Brexit deal unscathed?
So the Tory party remains at distance from Businesses and businesses needs? it remains ravaged in Remainia voting areas where it now cannot compete?
You still think I’m deluded for thinking Brexit plays a part in this?
It will certainly play a part.
But it won't be the all-consuming issue that it was in 2019.
All very interesting. What remains is a bit of a mystery - with everyone expecting Boris to win.
Everyone knows that a Boris win won't close down anything ar all - the matter remains hot until he goes. His position is not recoverable. All Tory MPs know that.
So what is the reasoning, however defective, behind voting for him to stay in terms of either personal or collective Tory interest?
It facilitates the Great Purge (again)
Traitors can be expunged, and true believers promoted.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Quite so. Boris is actually not that bad as PM, per se
Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS
That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?
Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops
Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere
One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time
Our Tune still playing in the background of Leon's posts.
This is the advantage of the in person only vote - Graham Brady can ask MPs to hand their phones in before they vote to ensure the ballot stays secret. Team Pig Dog can get fucked with their attempts to break the secrecy of the ballot, it just shows that they realise the vote will be lost.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
If there's an iota of truth in that, its truly shocking. Thank goodness Hunt wasn't PM is so. 😲
Perhaps, though I'd be interested to find out what he actually said.
Of course had they taken that approach with the patients discharged from hospitals at the start of the pandemic, it might have saved many thousands of lives in care homes.
Nadine Dorries is obviously not fit for Cabinet but she certainly has Hunt’s number right. The only reason people think he’d be a superior PM to either May or Johnson is because they have been turned bat shit crazy by Brexit. He’d be an unmitigated cluster
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
Quite damning if it came from anyone else. Not quite as damning coming from Dorries, who, be it from stupidity or duplicity, is not a credible witness.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Quite so. Boris is actually not that bad as PM, per se
Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS
That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?
Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops
Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere
One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time
Nah, it will be the opposite. Once he is stripped of his power and the memory of his shtick has faded, in the cold hard light of day he will be seen as having been pitifully inadequate and to have achieved little other than sowing multiple problems for his successors to try and resolve.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
Quite right too, and I'd entirely expect "Big Dog" to try to intimidate.
Frisking and phones/smart watches confiscated on entry, IMHO.
Whilst this is all very fun there's no way he actually loses the Confidence Vote is there?
I can see plausible arguments either way. I'm surprised so many are so sure one way or the other. The betting odds are extraordinarily strongly in his favour.
It's amazing that we're less than 30 months from him winning an 80-seat majority and they're holding a vote though.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
If there's an iota of truth in that, its truly shocking. Thank goodness Hunt wasn't PM is so. 😲
Perhaps, though I'd be interested to find out what he actually said.
Of course had they taken that approach with the patients discharged from hospitals at the start of the pandemic, it might have saved many thousands of lives in care homes.
I doubt it.
If the virus is present in the community then staff would inevitably bring it in anyway.
Grim reality is care residents would die with this virus and did in every nation that had the virus widespread.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Quite so. Boris is actually not that bad as PM, per se
Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS
That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?
Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops
Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere
One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time
Nah, it will be the opposite. Once he is stripped of his power and the memory of his shtick has faded, in the cold hard light of day he will be seen as having been pitifully inadequate and to have achieved little other than sowing multiple problems for his successors to try and resolve.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
Brady's a fair umpire, nixxes a potential plan "Let Mogg take care of your proxy vote"...
Starting to wonder whether 10% is a bit on the low side.
It is but it's far more likely Tory MPs bottle it than not.
If there were a clear alternative polling much better he'd already be gone.
Only 53% of Conservative voters think Boris Johnson should stay on. If the same proportion of Tory MPs agree, that sort of result would almost certainly be the end of the PM’s career. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1533779821058195456
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Brown didn't have it, he tried to cling on after losing in 2010.
Brown can take a lot of flak, but not that. His constitutional duty was to stay in office until it was clear that someone could form a government. As soon as that was clear, he left.
It never makes any sense to me people hold that against him.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Quite so. Boris is actually not that bad as PM, per se
Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS
That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?
Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops
Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere
One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time
He is a bumbling stuttering vacuous windbag. An arsehole extrodinaire.
Whilst this is all very fun there's no way he actually loses the Confidence Vote is there?
I can see plausible arguments either way. I'm surprised so many are so sure one way or the other. The betting odds are extraordinarily strongly in his favour.
It's amazing that we're less than 30 months from him winning an 80-seat majority and they're holding a vote though.
It's pretty much a direct consequence of him having done the things he was elected to do.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
Quite damning if it came from anyone else. Not quite as damning coming from Dorries, who, be it from stupidity or duplicity, is not a credible witness.
As I said, I'd be very interested to know what he actually said. It's possibly true, and also possibly a pack of either lies or distortions.
That we have no real idea which, is the essence of the Johnson government.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Just spoke to a @BorisJohnson supporter who hopes the number of MPs calling for him to go will be under 100. At that rate the MP thinks he will be fine. But the MP fears 120 no votes which means PM would struggle. If it is 150 or more no votes then the PM “is finished” https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533781685141217284
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
FWIW I think Boris will lose tonight, despite the odds, and have bet modestly accordingly.
This does rely a bit on the anonymity of the poll, and on the sanity of enough MPs.
Basis: There is a rational case for dropping Boris; and no rational case for keeping him. And no certainty of a second chance to act. Simples. (If I am wrong on the case for keeping him, no PBer has yet made it).
I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why. https://twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Arthur Balfour is the last one. Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
FWIW I think Boris will lose tonight, despite the odds, and have bet modestly accordingly.
This does rely a bit on the anonymity of the poll, and on the sanity of enough MPs.
Basis: There is a rational case for dropping Boris; and no rational case for keeping him. And no certainty of a second chance to act. Simples. (If I am wrong on the case for keeping him, no PBer has yet made it).
The comment editor of the Telegraph made the same assessment earlier
Comments
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533773452032761858
It would be a hoot if a dishonest PM was brought down by MPs lying about their support for him….
The reason we can’t have exact number to tell the potency of blow is because of abstentions?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.199959695
What's left is a mess. They need William Hague (or as near as damn it).
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032
New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
As someone who will vote Labour next time, I don't want a Tory victory and think she might make it more likely, but I still think she's a better candidate - and possibly person - than several others.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-boris-johnson-betting-1.160843673
(*) Yes, I am not including 'acting' leaders, so Beckett and Harman do not count.
https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1533776005873147905
Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS
That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?
Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops
Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere
One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time
https://smarkets.com/event/42568388/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-result-2022
She has just written the opposition attack ads for years to come...
So the Tory party remains at distance from Businesses and businesses needs? it remains ravaged in Remainia voting areas where it now cannot compete?
You still think I’m deluded for thinking Brexit plays a part in this?
“I’ve been through a list of colleagues... The absolute max I can see for the rebels is 170 [i.e. 53% for PM].”
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533777143423029248
Everyone knows that a Boris win won't close down anything ar all - the matter remains hot until he goes. His position is not recoverable. All Tory MPs know that.
So what is the reasoning, however defective, behind voting for him to stay in terms of either personal or collective Tory interest?
But it won't be the all-consuming issue that it was in 2019.
Traitors can be expunged, and true believers promoted.
https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1533777398600290307
"As the Tories fight one another like rats in a sack, it is the country that it suffering.
“But at least some truths are emerging...
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nadine-dorries-admits-tories-pandemic-preparation-was-inadequate-for-six-years_uk_629ddf5be4b016c4eefb932c
"...including cabinet ministers finally admitting that a decade of Tory government left Britain badly exposed to the pandemic."
Of course had they taken that approach with the patients discharged from hospitals at the start of the pandemic, it might have saved many thousands of lives in care homes.
The PCP aren't just pathetic, spineless, quivering cowards – they are also certifiably insane.
Frisking and phones/smart watches confiscated on entry, IMHO.
It's amazing that we're less than 30 months from him winning an 80-seat majority and they're holding a vote though.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1533779563670536192
If the virus is present in the community then staff would inevitably bring it in anyway.
Grim reality is care residents would die with this virus and did in every nation that had the virus widespread.
If there were a clear alternative polling much better he'd already be gone.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1533779821058195456
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1533772838808723458
If that's an accurate reflection of public opinion, Tory MPs would be utterly mad to ignore it.
Well, I'd like to see ol Boris Johnson wriggle his way out of THIS jam!
*Boris wriggles his way out of the jam easily *
Ah! Well. Nevertheless,
https://twitter.com/mtrc/status/1151531475336081408?t=YA15xwb0JPTN5zQElgGYZg&s=19
https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1533780254099181569
It's possibly true, and also possibly a pack of either lies or distortions.
That we have no real idea which, is the essence of the Johnson government.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
Sunak
Truss
Patel
Javid
Hunt
Hammond
May
Raab
By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote
It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533781685141217284
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
https://mobile.twitter.com/_AstroErika/status/1533178823335940096
I understand the Tory MP accused of rape will be allowed to vote in today's confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
It is because he has not had the whip suspended
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1533754523604361218
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1533780443924992000
This does rely a bit on the anonymity of the poll, and on the sanity of enough MPs.
Basis: There is a rational case for dropping Boris; and no rational case for keeping him. And no certainty of a second chance to act. Simples. (If I am wrong on the case for keeping him, no PBer has yet made it).
I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why.
https://twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760
Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience