Just been through the list of Tory MPs and got 132 MPs who are likely to vote against Johnson. My personal assessment. Could be wrong.
Be interesting to hear Alastair Meeks thoughts. He's usually pretty accurate. A great shame he no longer posts here. Another one lost at the alter of Leon/SeanT
Just been through the list of Tory MPs and got 132 MPs who are likely to vote against Johnson. My personal assessment. Could be wrong.
Be interesting to hear Alastair Meeks thoughts. He's usually pretty accurate. A great shame he no longer posts here. Another one lost at the alter of Leon/SeanT
I am not SeanT, I am Leon. Can you tell me how I chased away Alistair Meeks?
I don’t believe I did, for a second. He’s a classy commentator, highly intelligent, and perfectly capable of defending himself.
He just went a bit mad after Brexit and got teased on here for it (by others as well as me), and he made the probably sensible decision that he was not in the right frame of mind for daily debate which left him demented. He also became quite nasty in his final months. Which is a shame, I am sure it’s not the real Mr Meeks
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Yes, not often I agree with you politically, but I think I'm with you in seeing her as my favoured candidate. My only reservations are the worry that perhaps to some extent I favour her partly because she hasn't had the experience or prominence yet to do or say things that annoy me; or that I am filling in the gaps in my understanding of her with hope.
I feel like there's a lot of ramping going on with Mordaunt. For a party in government for 12 years she's really inexperienced: only 2 years in a relatively minor department and then barely enough time to brew a cup of tea at Defence. What has she actually done? Does this just reflect a lack of good candidates, that people are projecting their ideals on her because she's a blank canvas?
I had to look her up because apart from a vague idea she'd been in the Cabinet under May and then sacked immediately by Johnson (a plus point) the only thing I knew about her was that she'd been on TV in some swimming programme.
What had Johnson done, other than make a complete cods of being FS ?
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
Rubbish, you are deluded if you think the Tory membership will elect anyone who is not as pro hard a Brexit as Johnson if not more so.
That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing
I’m DELUDED to see continued Brexit fault line in voters, MPs and party members, and deluded suspecting the new non Boris government may cuddle up to business again post Boris and tweak the current Brexit deal accordingly? 🙂
It's superficial but having a PM who's as photogenic as Penny Mordaunt would change the country's image after Boris. She'd instantly become a global political star. Even the New York Times might find something nice to say.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
Rubbish, you are deluded if you think the Tory membership will elect anyone who is not as pro hard a Brexit as Johnson if not more so.
That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing
I’m DELUDED to see continued Brexit fault line in voters, MPs and party members, and deluded suspecting the new non Boris government may cuddle up to business again post Boris and tweak the current Brexit deal accordingly? 🙂
It won't as Tory members will not elect a leader who wants to align to EU regulations again and certainly not one who would restore free movement.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
Rubbish, you are deluded if you think the Tory membership will elect anyone who is not as pro hard a Brexit as Johnson if not more so.
That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing
I’m DELUDED to see continued Brexit fault line in voters, MPs and party members, and deluded suspecting the new non Boris government may cuddle up to business again post Boris and tweak the current Brexit deal accordingly? 🙂
It won't as Tory members will not elect a leader who wants to align to EU regulations again and certainly not one who would restore free movement.
It’s obvious here he wins the actual vote, makes it a no brainier how to bet - but a simple 1 vote win doesn’t define win very clearly does it. In fact the real win/lose number we couldn’t define with all our PB collective intelligence?
Anything upward of 130 against is a clear Boris defeat?
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
It’s obvious here he wins the actual vote, makes it a no brainier how to bet - but a simple 1 vote win doesn’t define win very clearly does it. In fact the real win/lose number we couldn’t define with all our PB collective intelligence?
Anything upward of 130 against is a clear Boris defeat?
Probably. I think at least 130 will vote against him.
At the risk of sounding @HYUFD, I think that means most Tories back Boris.
OTOH it might be the SNP, PC, LD and some Labour (and SF depending on the polling) voters all wanting Mr J to stay ...
We joke about this sort of response on PB all the time, but the numbers that would answer in this way are minimal. My guess is it would be something like 85 - 15 "out" edit: 10% in (Don't knows, natch) for non Tories with the Conservative vote making up the balance to "Boris should stay".
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
I don't think she'll stand. I may be wrong, but so far she's shown no appetite for the leadership. Some people just hesitate at the wrong time, don't take the tide at the flood. Rishi is another recent example.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
She's got big-time military credentials,.
Why is this important?
It's not even true. She is a S/Lt(Acting) in the RNR which means she has crossed Portsmouth Harbour in a P2000.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
Sounds to me like she knows Boris is a goner and she wants to prevent Hunt taking over. It’s kamikaze stuff
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
Why are his defenders shittalking people on Twitter and in media? It has to be performative, since the audience that matters is Tory MPs and not all will see you defending big dog.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
She's got big-time military credentials,.
Why is this important?
It's not even true. She is a S/Lt(Acting) in the RNR which means she has crossed Portsmouth Harbour in a P2000.
For British MPs that's like being a brigadier general.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
Why are his defenders shittalking people on Twitter and in media? It has to be performative, since the audience that matters is Tory MPs and not all will see you defending big dog.
Taking out Hunt because she knows Johnson is a goner? (I see Leon has suggested that)
Just been through the list of Tory MPs and got 132 MPs who are likely to vote against Johnson. My personal assessment. Could be wrong.
Be interesting to hear Alastair Meeks thoughts. He's usually pretty accurate. A great shame he no longer posts here. Another one lost at the alter of Leon/SeanT
I am not SeanT, I am Leon. Can you tell me how I chased away Alistair Meeks?
I don’t believe I did, for a second. He’s a classy commentator, highly intelligent, and perfectly capable of defending himself.
He just went a bit mad after Brexit and got teased on here for it (by others as well as me), and he made the probably sensible decision that he was not in the right frame of mind for daily debate which left him demented. He also became quite nasty in his final months. Which is a shame, I am sure it’s not the real Mr Meeks
I see Dorries is now going for the jugular publicly against Hunt. I’m not sure characters like her help the Johnson cause. Cultish
I have no idea why Hunt is the favourite, absolutely no idea. I suppose the bettors know what they're doing.
Not surprised that Mordaunt has overtaken Truss though.
Hunt will probably be the centrist candidate again in the final 2 if Boris goes, he might even win the MPs vote. Sunak will be fishing in the same pool of more moderate Tory MPs as Hunt and Hunt will now likely knock him out as Sunak's poll numbers have collapsed.
However I cannot see him winning the membership vote, Mordaunt, Wallace or Raab or Truss would all beat Hunt when it got to the membership in my view as Johnson trounced Hunt with members in summer 2019
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
She's got big-time military credentials,.
Why is this important?
It's not even true. She is a S/Lt(Acting) in the RNR which means she has crossed Portsmouth Harbour in a P2000.
She's the daughter of a para, grew up in a military home, is a Royal Navy reservist and is even named after a navy ship. She was Defence Secretary, represents a very military minded constituency and is constantly doing things in and around military and defence matters - today being another example.
It matters because she's far more authentic to the red wall voters than Boris would ever be.
Anyway, I've said quite enough about her. I want a Labour Government, no matter how much I admire her.
Anyway, I shall stop championing someone who I think can beat Labour. But she would be a brilliant Prime Minister.
“ she would be a brilliant Prime Minister “
Based on?
Unlike a lot of lefty’s on here pushing Mourdant, I’m trying to help the Conservatives achieve due diligence in this leadership election (which I suspect we have to wait for won’t happen this week).
A Key bit of due diligence for me is asking, do they maintain Boris Brexit Deal 100%, or cosy back up to Business and fight LibDems and Labour in Remainia by tweaking Boris Brexit Deal.
I think in not just choosing a leader but the direction needed this is a fair yardstick to get the leadership election right. And I currently (it could change when she actually lays out her platform) have Penny Mourdant down as a right wing Tory who will run into problems by not even contemplating tweaking Boris Brexit Deal.
But push me and I say he'll lose it. Once it's in the air that it's possible it becomes a bit of a don't push the red button situation.
A bit like the Brexit vote. Shit you mean if we vote this way we get to choose on this issue? That seems too good an opportunity to pass up.
I think he’ll either a) win it so narrowly that it will essentially do for him or b) surprise loss.
I don’t see this being a minor rebellion that he will comfortably see off. There’s too many Tories having come forward this morning complaining about the PM to suggest this is all going to slip away quietly with a vote of 55-70.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Hunt has no chance, he's far too sensible. The party is still in denial.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Wallace? He’s had a good few years
Electing him would be an expression of defeatism. Starmer is not gonna be worried by boring Ben Wallace, with his zero ideas and zero charisma
The only way the Tories can win is with someone fresh and interesting, that gives the impression they have new energy and things to do. Right now that feels, maybe, like Mordaunt. I am probably painting my hopes onto the white canvas but at least she is interesting. Impressive backstory. Any of them would be a gamble, but keeping Boris is a bigger gamble
She’d certainly worry Labour. She’s such an unknown quantity they wouldn’t know how to handle her, for a while
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
Mainly due to both her and JRM are pretty nasty pieces of work.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
Shades too of Ann Widdecombe's 'something of the night' about Michael Howard that torpedoed his chances of becoming Tory leader in 1997 to succeed Major
I see Dorries is now going for the jugular publicly against Hunt. I’m not sure characters like her help the Johnson cause. Cultish
I have no idea why Hunt is the favourite, absolutely no idea. I suppose the bettors know what they're doing.
Not surprised that Mordaunt has overtaken Truss though.
The idea that Mordaunt could get more Tory MP votes than Truss seems very unlikely.
Is Truss that popular? I would have thought the self-glorification and fake-Maggie schtick would be grating on them a bit.
Of all the likely leaders I think Labour would most hope for Truss. Pretty easy to demolish. They probably wouldn't mind Rishi either because they can blame him as having been at the tiller when the economy went belly up.
I agree Mordaunt would worry them more for the reasons various people have given. But I don't think she will stand.
I see Dorries is now going for the jugular publicly against Hunt. I’m not sure characters like her help the Johnson cause. Cultish
I have no idea why Hunt is the favourite, absolutely no idea. I suppose the bettors know what they're doing.
Not surprised that Mordaunt has overtaken Truss though.
The idea that Mordaunt could get more Tory MP votes than Truss seems very unlikely.
Is Truss that popular? I would have thought the self-glorification and fake-Maggie schtick would be grating on them a bit.
Of all the likely leaders I think Labour would most hope for Truss. Pretty easy to demolish. They probably wouldn't mind Rishi either because they can blame him as having been at the tiller when the economy went belly up.
I agree Mordaunt would worry them more for the reasons various people have given. But I don't think she will stand.
My thinking is that holding one of the great offices of state still counts for something with Tory MPs.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
Dorries-Mogg dream ticket.
That would certainly be the preferred ticket from the point of view of Labour/Plaid/SNP......
But push me and I say he'll lose it. Once it's in the air that it's possible it becomes a bit of a don't push the red button situation.
A bit like the Brexit vote. Shit you mean if we vote this way we get to choose on this issue? That seems too good an opportunity to pass up.
I think he’ll either a) win it so narrowly that it will essentially do for him or b) surprise loss.
I don’t see this being a minor rebellion that he will comfortably see off. There’s too many Tories having come forward this morning complaining about the PM to suggest this is all going to slip away quietly with a vote of 55-70.
Current guess is anywhere from 120-190 against.
Agree but still think he might lose it.
Is a majority of the PCP really thinking that he is the only leader guaranteed to win us the next GE? Can't see it.
All this talk of potential successors just underlines how Boris hollowed out the Conservative party. There is no strong cabinet successor. There is no new strand of Conservative thinking waiting in the wings to set out a new direction.
The cabinet rivals are deliberately very weak and the populist stuff has drowned out the intellectuals, half of whom were sacked.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
“4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now”
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
No, she's only taking out Hunt - he was never going to win anyway.
Quite a successful assault, there
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
Nadine is quite good at attack lines. Remember 'arrogant posh boys who don't know the price of milk'.
Dorries-Mogg dream ticket.
That would certainly be the preferred ticket from the point of view of Labour/Plaid/SNP......
It’s obvious here he wins the actual vote, makes it a no brainier how to bet - but a simple 1 vote win doesn’t define win very clearly does it. In fact the real win/lose number we couldn’t define with all our PB collective intelligence?
Anything upward of 130 against is a clear Boris defeat?
Probably. I think at least 130 will vote against him.
135-160 against him A fatal wound, where the animal runs away from view still alive but soon dies?
The reason we can’t have exact number to tell the potency of blow is because of abstentions?
I think Boris will temporarily survive tonight - but with enough voting against him (160 is my prediction) that would be fatally wounding for any normal/rational person - but he will bluster on ...and on...and on... and drag this charade out for another month before being kicked out anyway. More popcorn needed
All this talk of potential successors just underlines how Boris hollowed out the Conservative party. There is no strong cabinet successor. There is no new strand of Conservative thinking waiting in the wings to set out a new direction.
The cabinet rivals are deliberately very weak and the populist stuff has drowned out the intellectuals, half of whom were sacked.
Boris has prepared well for this moment.
Although to be fair a couple of the most promising potential successors hollowed out themselves without Boris having to do anything.
Did you hear her Global Britain nonsense? She's the Leaver's Leaver. She makes Leon sound balanced. She'd be f*ing awful which means she'll probably win. At least she'd get rid of JRM and Patel.
But push me and I say he'll lose it. Once it's in the air that it's possible it becomes a bit of a don't push the red button situation.
A bit like the Brexit vote. Shit you mean if we vote this way we get to choose on this issue? That seems too good an opportunity to pass up.
I think he’ll either a) win it so narrowly that it will essentially do for him or b) surprise loss.
I don’t see this being a minor rebellion that he will comfortably see off. There’s too many Tories having come forward this morning complaining about the PM to suggest this is all going to slip away quietly with a vote of 55-70.
Current guess is anywhere from 120-190 against.
Agree but still think he might lose it.
Is a majority of the PCP really thinking that he is the only leader guaranteed to win us the next GE? Can't see it.
Worst result for the Tories is a narrow Johnson win, followed by the customary brazen arrogance as JRM tours the airwaves slagging off half the parliamentary party while telling the public it's time to draw a line and move on. Meanwhile half the population finds itself overdrawn by mid month as month 3 of galactic energy bills, diesel edging up to £2 and the irritation of thousands of cancelled flights really start to bite. That's the route to big losses on the 23rd and a 15%+ national polling deficit with the Lib Dems up to 16%.
There is no way he loses tonight which is, for those who want a change of Government next election, the optimum scenario. Partygate isn't an issue with the electorate anymore because people have made their minds up. By backing him the PCP will be seen to be as out of touch with the public as he is.
It’s obvious here he wins the actual vote, makes it a no brainier how to bet - but a simple 1 vote win doesn’t define win very clearly does it. In fact the real win/lose number we couldn’t define with all our PB collective intelligence?
Anything upward of 130 against is a clear Boris defeat?
Probably. I think at least 130 will vote against him.
135-160 against him A fatal wound, where the animal runs away from view still alive but soon dies?
The reason we can’t have exact number to tell the potency of blow is because of abstentions?
Usually there are very few, if any, abstentions in these Tory leadership votes.
All this talk of potential successors just underlines how Boris hollowed out the Conservative party. There is no strong cabinet successor. There is no new strand of Conservative thinking waiting in the wings to set out a new direction.
The cabinet rivals are deliberately very weak and the populist stuff has drowned out the intellectuals, half of whom were sacked.
Boris has prepared well for this moment.
Although to be fair a couple of the most promising potential successors hollowed out themselves without Boris having to do anything.
Boris appointed flawed characters (Truss) to senior positions and if one gets above their station (Sunak, Javid) he used his press chums to cut them down to size.
What's left is a mess. They need William Hague (or as near as damn it).
I think Boris will temporarily survive tonight - but with enough voting against him (160 is my prediction) that would be fatally wounding for any normal/rational person - but he will bluster on ...and on...and on... and drag this charade out for another month before being kicked out anyway. More popcorn needed
You think the rebels will be back after the loss of the two by-elections then?
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
Comments
At the risk of sounding @HYUFD, I think that means most Tories back Boris.
Clearly Mordaunt would be a huge improvement over Johnson.
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533713196414124033
Do Tory MPs ?
They wouldn't get beyond 'conservatives stand for....' before the jeering and the gales of mocking laughter started.
I don’t believe I did, for a second. He’s a classy commentator, highly intelligent, and perfectly capable of defending himself.
He just went a bit mad after Brexit and got teased on here for it (by others as well as me), and he made the probably sensible decision that he was not in the right frame of mind for daily debate which left him demented. He also became quite nasty in his final months. Which is a shame, I am sure it’s not the real Mr Meeks
He seems happier now; this is good
Johnson wins 1.26
Johnson loses 4.90
So, he's well safe.
Not surprised that Mordaunt has overtaken Truss though.
150 or fewer 1.56
Over 150 2.82
Over feels value?
Anything upward of 130 against is a clear Boris defeat?
..from Nadine Dorries. Ugh. The Johnson cultists will burn the whole house down
"Well Suzanne you are being your normal partisan self"
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763409627566080
But so far the list of Prime Ministers named after ships appears to be 0.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763407970816002
It's not even true. She is a S/Lt(Acting) in the RNR which means she has crossed Portsmouth Harbour in a P2000.
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533768680324071425
But push me and I say he'll lose it. Once it's in the air that it's possible it becomes a bit of a don't push the red button situation.
A bit like the Brexit vote. Shit you mean if we vote this way we get to choose on this issue? That seems too good an opportunity to pass up.
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/studying-the-headless-chicken-entrails-7110fd9e5cd
TL;DR: he's plumped for a narrow Johnson defeat with a low degree of confidence.
However I cannot see him winning the membership vote, Mordaunt, Wallace or Raab or Truss would all beat Hunt when it got to the membership in my view as Johnson trounced Hunt with members in summer 2019
Be a precursor to this
If this is all true about Hunt it casts a lot of shade
This leaves Mordaunt v Truss? Maybe Sunak still in with a shout?
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1533770637772218370
Does anyone know how that compares with public declarations on the Theresa May vote?
It matters because she's far more authentic to the red wall voters than Boris would ever be.
Anyway, I've said quite enough about her. I want a Labour Government, no matter how much I admire her.
Based on?
Unlike a lot of lefty’s on here pushing Mourdant, I’m trying to help the Conservatives achieve due diligence in this leadership election (which I suspect we have to wait for won’t happen this week).
A Key bit of due diligence for me is asking, do they maintain Boris Brexit Deal 100%, or cosy back up to Business and fight LibDems and Labour in Remainia by tweaking Boris Brexit Deal.
I think in not just choosing a leader but the direction needed this is a fair yardstick to get the leadership election right. And I currently (it could change when she actually lays out her platform) have Penny Mourdant down as a right wing Tory who will run into problems by not even contemplating tweaking Boris Brexit Deal.
I don’t see this being a minor rebellion that he will comfortably see off. There’s too many Tories having come forward this morning complaining about the PM to suggest this is all going to slip away quietly with a vote of 55-70.
Current guess is anywhere from 120-190 against.
The only way the Tories can win is with someone fresh and interesting, that gives the impression they have new energy and things to do. Right now that feels, maybe, like Mordaunt. I am probably painting my hopes onto the white canvas but at least she is interesting. Impressive backstory. Any of them would be a gamble, but keeping Boris is a bigger gamble
She’d certainly worry Labour. She’s such an unknown quantity they wouldn’t know how to handle her, for a while
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533772395596619776
Wins poorly enough that he's fatally wounded? Who knows.
@Mike_Fabricant
Statement regarding Boris Johnson sent to me.
If you had any doubt, I will be supporting him.
Everyone knows how these things work, but normally this part isn't said out loud I think ?
Of all the likely leaders I think Labour would most hope for Truss. Pretty easy to demolish. They probably wouldn't mind Rishi either because they can blame him as having been at the tiller when the economy went belly up.
I agree Mordaunt would worry them more for the reasons various people have given. But I don't think she will stand.
Is a majority of the PCP really thinking that he is the only leader guaranteed to win us the next GE? Can't see it.
The cabinet rivals are deliberately very weak and the populist stuff has drowned out the intellectuals, half of whom were sacked.
Boris has prepared well for this moment.
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533773452032761858
It would be a hoot if a dishonest PM was brought down by MPs lying about their support for him….
The reason we can’t have exact number to tell the potency of blow is because of abstentions?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.199959695
What's left is a mess. They need William Hague (or as near as damn it).