The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.0 -
That JRM quote will be getting a lot of outings today:
PM has c160 MPs on payroll and c200 backbench MPs. So losing support of 100+ MPs means PM has lost support of majority to his backbenches. When TM lost 117 votes JRM said a “terrible result & she should resign”. For PM, JRM says he only needs to win by one vote to stay
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/15337495912959016971 -
2019er Conservative who previously said that if Sue Gray report had been about her, she'd have quit - now explicitly saying she'll vote against Johnson tonight https://twitter.com/AJRichardsonMP/status/15337497263398133770
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Boris wouldn't be eligible.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.1 -
It puts things in perspective - some on here will indicate how terrible it will be for Johnson if he loses, but as @Leon pointed out he could be earning £10mil+ in the near future which would pay for a lot of wallpaper for the current Mrs Johnson.Morris_Dancer said:M. Nakht, no worries.
Others here are far better informed on current events, but I dare say I'm in the top 10% when it comes to the Diadochi* era.
*Successors (to Alexander the Great).0 -
Have we noted this. Is it genuine? Interesting if true.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1533736317296812032|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live0 -
You need to look at Sinn Fein in the Republic for a demonstration of that - Sinn Fein got the number of winnable candidates wrong and so they have about 5 to 10 less TDs than they would otherwise have had.SandyRentool said:
Your first sentence demonstrates why STV is a lousy voting system.StuartDickson said:
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.Andy_JS said:
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossibleAndy_JS said:
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.StuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.0 -
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Hadixiedean said:
Boris wouldn't be eligible.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
One of his little imps might though. 0 -
THE HUNTSMAN DRAWS HIS DAGGER
THE HUNTSMAN DRAWS HIS DAGGERAndy_JS said:BBC —> Jeremy Hunt: "Will be voting for change".
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Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too
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Well, kids. It appears this is my 50 thousandth post!!!
I have clearly been idling away the last few years by spending a lot of time on here.
Many thanks to OHG, TSE and Robert for keeping this excellent forum up and running.
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Anyone got a Spreadsheet tracker of support/opposing Boris? I have seen a now defunct 1922 letters one but I wondered if anyone was running a VONC one for tonight?
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I wonder how many Tory MPs' votes this evening will be influenced by the betting odds? There must be a fair number who want either (a) Boris to win the VONC comfortably or (b) Boris to lose the VONC. These MPs don't want a narrow win for Boris as that damages the party without resolving the issue of his leadership. So how will they decide to cast their vote? Maybe on the basis of the latest betting?!0
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Careful what you wish forRoger said:
So that's Zelensky and you. Anyone else?bigjohnowls said:Tory MPs are Putin enablers!!
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win
His successor will be more right wing.
I know as a Champagne Centrist you dont give a fuck about austerity but any Tory except Boris will return to austerity1 -
Well he's spot on.Scott_xP said:The Conservative Party must now decide if it wishes to change its leader. Because of the situation in Ukraine this was not a debate I wanted to have now but under our rules we must do that.
Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve. We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.
And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.
Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748389891940352
But will they listen?2 -
Powrer trumps it any day of the weekkle4 said:
We've heard a lot of whinged from his people about money woes. It matters to him a lot.Roger said:
Do you really think EVERYONE'S motivation is money? In my experience most people who have jobs and abilities well above the ordinary have no obvious interest in it at all. Being rich will not be the tiniest compensation for losing his position as Prime MinisterLeon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together0 -
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.Heathener said:
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.MarqueeMark said:
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.MaxPB said:
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.Casino_Royale said:
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 19970 -
..
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PMSL, mumble , mumble , stutter , tripe , tripe , mumble stutter. Fools and tehir money are easily parted.MaxPB said:
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.HYUFD said:
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.MaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either0 -
Have I missed any possible candidatesHYUFD said:
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too
Hunt
Truss
Sunak
Wallace
Gove
Tugendhat
Raab
Patel
Mordaunt
Zahawi0 -
In the coming civil war, the dividing line will not be brexit. It will be the hard target of 2050 for Net Zero.TimS said:If he loses and there's a leadership election it will be interesting to see where the ideological cleavages end up being.
I don't think it will be a re-run of the Brexit battles. Too soon - the most we can expect is for one or two of the candidates to make warm noises about changing the tone, not ditching the protocol, and looking for some quick wins on things like passport queues. Otherwise they'll all say what they think the grassroots want to hear.
Lockdown scepticism would have featured heavily a few months ago, with the Steve Baker wing noisily making this a big issue and throwing their weight behind Mark Harper, but that's a busted flush now. Nobody cares about lockdowns or restrictions anymore.
Russia-Ukraine will be consensus all round.
Culture war: I expect the more "moderate" candidates will bemoan the obsession of the ancien regime with deportations to Rwanda, Channel 4 privatisation, imperial measures and so on. I don't expect anyone to be particularly vocally in favour of the JRM/Nadine/Priti approach on these though.
The economy and cost of living. There's not on the surface a huge divide. But this seems like the most likely source of difference. I foresee a renewed battle between the Thatcherites and Keynesians. Lots of talk of balancing the books, no nanny state, government can't be expected to do everything etc. I doubt that line will win but there are a number of backbenchers openly regretting what they see as the "socialist" interventionist instincts of Boris and his crew.
Though the obvious standard bearer for this would have been Sunak but he's pretty clearly compromised on this.
The hard target means that the conservatives (and indeed all the major parties), have nothing much to offer the electorate but sacrifices. Boilers, cars, flights etc.
Its striking that in the current living standards crisis, nobody is offering a vision of a time when living standards will improve. That's because many of our politicians know they cannot deliver such a thing in the next decade.
3 -
WasHYUFD said:
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.Heathener said:
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.MarqueeMark said:
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.MaxPB said:
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.Casino_Royale said:
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher
I almost hope he clings on, or even wins well, just to prove what a fool you are to believe this. Although I suspect you will vanish when it happens.
But for the country's sake he must go.0 -
Boris will survive today unless we see Cabinet ministers finally stand up against this totally adrift Prime Ministers. For months we’ve seen and heard them tie themselves in knots defending the indefensible. One or two of them could redeem themselves today by resigning.
https://twitter.com/montie/status/15337163107854622781 -
As a non-champagne leftie even I can see that we must get public spending under control. We can't leave this rampant State spending to go on expanding like this. Inflation is a terrible scourge for everyone, rich or poor alike.bigjohnowls said:
Careful what you wish forRoger said:
So that's Zelensky and you. Anyone else?bigjohnowls said:Tory MPs are Putin enablers!!
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win
His successor will be more right wing.
I know as a Champagne Centrist you dont give a fuck about austerity but any Tory except Boris will return to austerity1 -
Exactly.HYUFD said:
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too1 -
Maybe Javid tooAndy_JS said:
Have I missed any possible candidatesHYUFD said:
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too
Hunt
Truss
Sunak
Wallace
Gove
Tugendhat
Raab
Patel
Mordaunt
Zahawi0 -
Am I remembering my 'days in office' numbers correctly and if Boris is defeated tonight he's gone quicker than Brown was?0
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Owen's hot take:
I genuinely think that if Jeremy Hunt becomes Tory leader, a lot of voters are going to struggle to tell the difference between him and Keir Starmer
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/15337508998558310400 -
Probably like the Brexit vote, when the dumb money was influenced by London voting for Remain/Cabinet members sticking with Boris.....Stocky said:
Now;Stocky said:"Smarkets: 1.83 Wins, 2.04 Loses" I posted an hour ago.
Significant move. Now:
1.38 Wins, 3.50 Loses
Compared to on here the outside world seems pretty confident that Johnson will win this.
I think you have to take a bit of that 3.5?
Wins1.28
Loses 3.851 -
Generally these books make a loss. But that is seen as worth it because the publisher can boast “well we’re publishing the prime minister/president”. This then attracts other business and other (perhaps more commercial) authors. And of course the editors and suits at the publishers get to rub shoulders with important historical figures. Which is funMattW said:
Do any of these book payments actually pay back for the publisher?Nigelb said:
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.dixiedean said:
£15+?Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
We could have a whipround.
Did the publisher make a profit overall from Blair or Campbell's books? I recall Campbell being reported declaring windily that his diary was "my pension". Did it work, or has he made more from his London house?
There are exceptions however. My guess is that Thatchers memoirs might have made money because she was so important - they sold and they keep selling over time. Al Campbell’s diaries probably made a good profit too. As they are so entertaining
I’m pretty sure Blair did not earn back his huge advance. And I believe Brown’s memoirs totally cratered0 -
Harper?Andy_JS said:
Have I missed any possible candidatesHYUFD said:
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too
Hunt
Truss
Sunak
Wallace
Gove
Tugendhat
Raab
Patel
Mordaunt
Zahawi0 -
A Starmer vs Hunt general election would be very boring and quite welcomeCarlottaVance said:Owen's hot take:
I genuinely think that if Jeremy Hunt becomes Tory leader, a lot of voters are going to struggle to tell the difference between him and Keir Starmer
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1533750899855831040
https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/15337503189027921922 -
Mercer? Nothing to lose, solid military credentials for the members but also a softer side that can connect?HYUFD said:
Maybe Javid tooAndy_JS said:
Have I missed any possible candidatesHYUFD said:
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too
Hunt
Truss
Sunak
Wallace
Gove
Tugendhat
Raab
Patel
Mordaunt
Zahawi
0 -
Dull and DullerCarlottaVance said:Owen's hot take:
I genuinely think that if Jeremy Hunt becomes Tory leader, a lot of voters are going to struggle to tell the difference between him and Keir Starmer
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/15337508998558310400 -
Yeah, tomorrow equalises but he wouldnt resign as PM tonight, just as party leader. He will be PM till new leader inserted and he goes to see Brendaohnotnow said:Am I remembering my 'days in office' numbers correctly and if Boris is defeated tonight he's gone quicker than Brown was?
1 -
Yes, you missed one.Andy_JS said:
Have I missed any possible candidatesHYUFD said:
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too
0 -
I’m wondering if the money is in the lag into the next PM market?Stocky said:
Now;Stocky said:"Smarkets: 1.83 Wins, 2.04 Loses" I posted an hour ago.
Significant move. Now:
1.38 Wins, 3.50 Loses
Compared to on here the outside world seems pretty confident that Johnson will win this.
I think you have to take a bit of that 3.5?
Wins1.28
Loses 3.85
0 -
What happened to Mark Harper?HYUFD said:
Maybe Javid tooAndy_JS said:
Have I missed any possible candidatesHYUFD said:
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Wallace maybe too
Hunt
Truss
Sunak
Wallace
Gove
Tugendhat
Raab
Patel
Mordaunt
Zahawi0 -
Touched 5 on BF. Must be insider money, or a deliberate attempt to swing the book, I don't believe anyone would get to 5 from public statements.Stocky said:
Now;Stocky said:"Smarkets: 1.83 Wins, 2.04 Loses" I posted an hour ago.
Significant move. Now:
1.38 Wins, 3.50 Loses
Compared to on here the outside world seems pretty confident that Johnson will win this.
I think you have to take a bit of that 3.5?
Wins1.28
Loses 3.850 -
It's also a secret ballot so they can say whatever they like at 2pm and then vote the opposite. That's why I think Boris is much more likely to lose than win, 3.5 is value.MarqueeMark said:
Probably like the Brexit vote, when the dumb money was influenced by London voting for Remain/Cabinet members sticking with Boris.....Stocky said:
Now;Stocky said:"Smarkets: 1.83 Wins, 2.04 Loses" I posted an hour ago.
Significant move. Now:
1.38 Wins, 3.50 Loses
Compared to on here the outside world seems pretty confident that Johnson will win this.
I think you have to take a bit of that 3.5?
Wins1.28
Loses 3.852 -
I’m sure @Scott_xP had a link to a Google sheet.ExpatMalaysia said:Anyone got a Spreadsheet tracker of support/opposing Boris? I have seen a now defunct 1922 letters one but I wondered if anyone was running a VONC one for tonight?
0 -
Brown's memoirs are quite funny for the way in which he unintentionally shows that he wasn't suited to the job and was also much more intellectually shallow than his reputation.Leon said:And I believe Brown’s memoirs totally cratered
1 -
Leon is having kittensRoger said:
So that's Zelensky and you. Anyone else?bigjohnowls said:Tory MPs are Putin enablers!!
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win1 -
Mrs Johnson is well aware of the man's track record. Johnson has already himself indicated "buyer's remorse" (his words) over the marriage which confirms Roger's skepticism.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe I am old fashioned but I am uncomfortable with attacking a marriage especially with 2 young childrenMexicanpete said:
I don't know why you are so precious about Johnson's current marriage. Wedding vows from what is clearly already in the public domain mean nothing whatsoever to Mr Johnson. He is just a serial philanderer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You answered your own question - you cannot help yourselfRoger said:Any odds on how long his marriage will last if he goes or is that tasteless?
Let's hope he has already had his last hurrah and he falls today.0 -
@PennyMordaunt
Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/15337273194661191690 -
Do we get an exit poll at 8pm?4
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From the ashes of one spreadsheet...Taz said:
I’m sure @Scott_xP had a link to a Google sheet.ExpatMalaysia said:Anyone got a Spreadsheet tracker of support/opposing Boris? I have seen a now defunct 1922 letters one but I wondered if anyone was running a VONC one for tonight?
Here's the big cabinet confidence tracker: 24 of 30 already out of the blocks to back the PM. Most have been very speedy (it's as if they know we're watching them)
The biggest surprise so far is that Nadine Dorries wasn't the first https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1533742094128492544/photo/10 -
Threatening rebels with an early election is laughable . Is this the best the clown can come up with .1
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I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why. https://twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760/photo/11
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imo Boris would probably like to have done a Harold Wilson with an unexpected retirement at 60 (so in 2024).TimS said:
Yes, he'll do very well financially post-PM. Better if he leaves now, indeed, than if he hangs on and is then thrashed in a GE.TheWhiteRabbit said:
His speaking style much better for after dinner than the house of commons. In fact, with a few jokes thrown in, it's not far of Ronnie Corbett's delivery style -essentially one long sentence.kle4 said:
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.Heathener said:
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.MaxPB said:
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.HYUFD said:
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.MaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either0 -
His went into the 10p bin the day after publishingwilliamglenn said:
Brown's memoirs are quite funny for the way in which he unintentionally shows that he wasn't suited to the job and was also much more intellectually shallow than his reputation.Leon said:And I believe Brown’s memoirs totally cratered
0 -
Niche as anything but... revolt of the Covid husbands. Jesse Norman (Mr Kate Bingham) and John Penrose (Mr Dido Harding) https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/15337539841036124162
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Steve Norris says do the right thing.
https://twitter.com/StevenJNorris/status/1533736124534992897?s=20&t=-WIslu2QmSMjDGGMSQR8iw1 -
Boris Johnson's anti-corruption tsar John Penrose quits & says he will vote no confidence in the PM. He says it's "pretty clear" the PM broke the ministerial code. https://twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/15337539284830617602
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JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
Perhaps not but don't underestimate the prestige factor. The PM's memoirs shows that you are the most important publishing house in the country. Same for the rush for serialisation rights in the papers; Rupert Murdoch will not be expecting to double the ST's circulation when he signs the cheque.MattW said:
Do any of these book payments actually pay back for the publisher?Nigelb said:
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.dixiedean said:
£15+?Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
We could have a whipround.
Did the publisher make a profit overall from Blair or Campbell's books? I recall Campbell being reported declaring windily that his diary was "my pension". Did it work, or has he made more from his London house?0 -
It’s certainly possible but I do wonder if, in reality, Johnson has tarnished his own brand to the point that the lecture / book circuit won’t be the gravy train he’s expecting.Nemtynakht said:
It puts things in perspective - some on here will indicate how terrible it will be for Johnson if he loses, but as @Leon pointed out he could be earning £10mil+ in the near future which would pay for a lot of wallpaper for the current Mrs Johnson.Morris_Dancer said:M. Nakht, no worries.
Others here are far better informed on current events, but I dare say I'm in the top 10% when it comes to the Diadochi* era.
*Successors (to Alexander the Great).1 -
Vacancies in the NHS are at record levels.Heathener said:
As a non-champagne leftie even I can see that we must get public spending under control. We can't leave this rampant State spending to go on expanding like this. Inflation is a terrible scourge for everyone, rich or poor alike.bigjohnowls said:
Careful what you wish forRoger said:
So that's Zelensky and you. Anyone else?bigjohnowls said:Tory MPs are Putin enablers!!
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win
His successor will be more right wing.
I know as a Champagne Centrist you dont give a fuck about austerity but any Tory except Boris will return to austerity
Pay is already too low as a result of 12 years of pay restraint
A further period of Austerity would see the NHS as we knew it collapse.
Same applies to other Public Services too
Johnson is more of a Socialist than SKS
Rachel Reeves is on record as being tougher on those on benefits than the Tories0 -
I got the same vibe from Cameron’s. I had this vague idea that despite his glibness, complacency and clumsy mistakes he was REALLY clever. On the evidence of that book - both the writing style and what he admits (sometimes inadvertently, like Brown) he really is not that smart, after allwilliamglenn said:
Brown's memoirs are quite funny for the way in which he unintentionally shows that he wasn't suited to the job and was also much more intellectually shallow than his reputation.Leon said:And I believe Brown’s memoirs totally cratered
1 -
Yes, but perhaps and improvement on our last GE which was a choice between dumb and dumber. Dull seems like a very appealing political way forward. Politics is/should be dull. It is not a fecking circus, or at least, shouldn't be.GIN1138 said:
Dull and DullerCarlottaVance said:Owen's hot take:
I genuinely think that if Jeremy Hunt becomes Tory leader, a lot of voters are going to struggle to tell the difference between him and Keir Starmer
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/15337508998558310401 -
It looks desperate . No new leader is going to come in and then risk being shown the door within months .rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
2 -
I think the numbers voting against Johnson are going to be higher than expected and I think this will do for him.0
-
Huge if true, there goes the Old Etonian voteScott_xP said:Niche as anything but... revolt of the Covid husbands. Jesse Norman (Mr Kate Bingham) and John Penrose (Mr Dido Harding) https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1533753984103612416
Pile on to Fatboy loss0 -
Indeed. The only conceivable route to an early election is a mortally wounded Boris going to the country for a new mandate to, er, reintroduce the groat.MaxPB said:
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
Boris didnico679 said:
It looks desperate . No new leader is going to come in and then risk being shown the door within months .rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
2 -
Desperate stuff. Seems that is all they have left at the bottom of the barrel.MaxPB said:
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
When a very privileged man of very average intellect thinks he is being super clever.Farooq said:
"So you see there would then be an election, which would be a bad thing, because we're tanking in the po-- oh"rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
This really is so far down the hogwash that it is bound to have the absolutely opposite effect.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
A new PM is under zero obligation to call a General Election.
Does JRM think everyone is stupid or what? Where do they get this crap?2 -
JRM forever on the backbenches is about as good an argument for getting rid of Boris as can be made.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
6 -
He had a big poll lead . So it wasn’t really a gamble .GIN1138 said:
Boris didnico679 said:
It looks desperate . No new leader is going to come in and then risk being shown the door within months .rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
Our thoughts must go to Labour HQ where they are having a very sweaty day waiting to see if the next GE will be very much harder than it looks at moment.
1 -
Sir Keir Starmer has said the 'vast majority' of women 'of course don't have a penis' and should be provided with 'safe spaces'.1
-
No he wins. 170 unemployables are on the payroll (amazingly enough). Add in the dozen or so Bullingdon Boys who think making Nadine Dorries Culture Secretary was the funniest prank of all time and he's over the line.dixiedean said:So. What's the call then?
I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear.
So gone.
I have no great confidence in this.3 -
@OwenJones84
Who do you think would be the most dangerous opponent for Labour as Boris Johnson's successor?
Speaking honestly, I think Penny Mordaunt.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/15337548898887434242 -
I think we may actually end up in a situation where votes for are much lower than pledges to vote for and Boris will lose on that basis. My best guess atm is 120-150 in favour and the rest against but heading into the vote we'll have somewhere around 160-180 declared in favour.1
-
Well you would hope whoever takes over will get the Con poll lead back immediately, otherwise what's the point for the Conservatives going to all this trouble to remove their leader?nico679 said:
He had a big poll lead . So it wasn’t really a gamble .GIN1138 said:
Boris didnico679 said:
It looks desperate . No new leader is going to come in and then risk being shown the door within months .rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
Boris wouldn't be eligible.mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
JRM intellectually and logically incoherent?MaxPB said:
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
Well. Spank my ass and call me Charlie.2 -
"John Penrose
@JohnPenroseNews
·
10m
I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why."0 -
Owen doesn't know anything.williamglenn said:@OwenJones84
Who do you think would be the most dangerous opponent for Labour as Boris Johnson's successor?
Speaking honestly, I think Penny Mordaunt.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/15337548898887434240 -
Fox?mwadams said:
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.moonshine said:Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.0 -
Yup. At last, we agree on something.williamglenn said:@OwenJones84
Who do you think would be the most dangerous opponent for Labour as Boris Johnson's successor?
Speaking honestly, I think Penny Mordaunt.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/15337548898887434241 -
Hope Mike Smithson is enjoying a holiday, as per tradition.5
-
Analysis: No10 is kidding itself if it thinks tonight's vote will "draw a line" under the Tory civil war
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/analysis-confidence-vote-draw-line-boris-johnson_uk_629dbb96e4b0c184bdd305020 -
JRM pleading with backbenchers not to make him strangle the fluffy kitten he is carrying round.
1 -
JRM a majority of one is enough
Change of heart from TM sweeping two thirds victory0 -
That's the "new Labour policy" you've been promising us? "The vast majority" of women don't have penises? I'm not sure that closes down the issue, to say the least.CorrectHorseBattery said:Sir Keir Starmer has said the 'vast majority' of women 'of course don't have a penis' and should be provided with 'safe spaces'.
2 -
He also led the Tories to their worst election defeat in 1997 since 1832. Worse than Balfour in 1906, worse than Churchill in 1945, worse than Heath in 1966 and worse than Hague in 2001 and Howard in 2005.Farooq said:
Hahaha, John Major got the Tories more votes in 1992 than any other party in the entire history of British politics, before OR SINCE. More than Johnson, More than Blair. More than Thatcher or Callaghan or Atlee or Churchill.HYUFD said:
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.Heathener said:
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.MarqueeMark said:
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.MaxPB said:
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.Casino_Royale said:
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 1997
Had Thatcher lost in 1992 the Tories might even have beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, perhaps even under Leader of the Opposition Major. Arguably it was better longer term for the Tories to lose in 1992 than win. Major's win in 1992 in any case was more a vote against Kinnock than for him (hence even a less popular Thatcher might still also narrowly have beaten Kinnock in 1992 as she beat him in 1987). Starmer does not have the same antagonism from middle England Kinnock or Corbyn did even if he does not have the appeal with them Blair did either0 -
As JRM is someone who was transported straight from the 1840s, anything that happened within living memory is therefore the work of witchcraft and should be ignored.Heathener said:
This really is so far down the hogwash that it is bound to have the absolutely opposite effect.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
A new PM is under zero obligation to call a General Election.
Does JRM think everyone is stupid or what? Where do they get this crap?0 -
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?MaxPB said:
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
To have someone who is not a fecking liar and knows how to govern perhaps?GIN1138 said:
Well you would hope whoever takes over will get the Con poll lead back immediately, otherwise what's the point for the Conservatives going to all this trouble to remove their leader?nico679 said:
He had a big poll lead . So it wasn’t really a gamble .GIN1138 said:
Boris didnico679 said:
It looks desperate . No new leader is going to come in and then risk being shown the door within months .rottenborough said:JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
0 -
Yep, she's the one I most fearwilliamglenn said:@OwenJones84
Who do you think would be the most dangerous opponent for Labour as Boris Johnson's successor?
Speaking honestly, I think Penny Mordaunt.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/15337548898887434240 -
Classy from our next PM....williamglenn said:@PennyMordaunt
Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/15337273194661191694 -
Cats sure seem to like him ...malcolmg said:
Leon is having kittensRoger said:
So that's Zelensky and you. Anyone else?bigjohnowls said:Tory MPs are Putin enablers!!
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win0
